Would you trade Guthrie to the Yankees to get Montero?

[Frobby]

With the Yankees now looking for a good starter, should we dangle Guthrie? I'd hate to trade him to the Yankees, but for a guy who could be a stud for a long time like Montero, it might be worth it.

Am I insane to think the Yankees would consider it?

[GlennGulliver]

No offense, but yes.:)

[BrunoCherrytown]

I wouldn't wait half a second to do that. Considering they offered him for C Lee I imagine Cashman would ask Andy to pass him whatever he had been smoking after presenting that offer. It at least would make for a good laugh.

[Stotle]

Yes I would do it. Yes you are insane to think the Yankees would entertain it. :)

The only way I see Montero going anywhere would be for a Josh Johnson-type talent.

Honestly, I think it's more likely they put a package together around Montero and trade for Hanley next off-season. Shift ARod to DH and Hanley to 3B. I think that may be a long shot, but still more likely than Guthrie netting Montero.

[Moose Milligan]

Yes. Where do I sign?

[bird watcher]

With the Yankees now looking for a good starter, should we dangle Guthrie? I'd hate to trade him to the Yankees, but for a guy who could be a stud for a long time like Montero, it might be worth it.

Am I insane to think the Yankees would consider it?

Guthrie makes a lot of sense for them although his flyball tendencies might not play well in that ballpark up there.

My first thought when I heard the news about Lee was "some GM is going to pillage the Yankees while trading them one of their starters."

"IF" the Yankees are going to get stupid in trading their young talent, I absolutely think we should get involved.

[Shopay]

With the Yankees now looking for a good starter, should we dangle Guthrie? I'd hate to trade him to the Yankees, but for a guy who could be a stud for a long time like Montero, it might be worth it.

Am I insane to think the Yankees would consider it?

Yes. Now would be a great time to dangle Guthrie for Montero and then bring in Blanton to replace him.

[jcarm]

With the Yankees now looking for a good starter, should we dangle Guthrie? I'd hate to trade him to the Yankees, but for a guy who could be a stud for a long time like Montero, it might be worth it.

Am I insane to think the Yankees would consider it?

I would love for the Orioles to do this. You are probably insane for thinking the Yankees would do it, but they may be in "desperation mode" now to catch up to Boston. You could also look to trade Guthrie to Atlanta. I would love to have Freddie Freeman-but I have to think that it would be hard for Atlanta to trade him given that he is set to be their starting first baseman this season.

[clapdiddy]

If they are trading their top prospects, it will be for a game-changer...not a guy like Guthrie.

[paulcoates]

Our problem is pitching. A lot of people on here really underestimate Guthrie. And Blanton is just not that great of a replacement.

I could see the Yankees potentially entertaining this because Montero did not have a great year in AAA last year plus there were some attitude problems with him last.

We need more pitching, not less. And Blanton equates to less for me

[Frobby]

Yes I would do it. Yes you are insane to think the Yankees would entertain it. :)

The only way I see Montero going anywhere would be for a Josh Johnson-type talent.

Honestly, I think it's more likely they put a package together around Montero and trade for Hanley next off-season. Shift ARod to DH and Hanley to 3B. I think that may be a long shot, but still more likely than Guthrie netting Montero.

Just curious -- is Montero as highly regarded now as he was a year ago at this time? He was considered the #4 prospect in MLB by BA in February.

[Stotle]

Just curious -- is Montero as highly regarded now as he was a year ago at this time? He was considered the #4 prospect in MLB by BA in February.

I don't think his stock has dropped much, if at all. For all the talk of a "down" year, he OPSed .870, hit 20+ HR struck out under 20% of his PA and walked in almost 10% of his PA -- all as a 20 year old in AAA. There may be evaluators that question the bat, but I haven't run into one.

From what I have heard the Yankees have every intention of running him out at catcher until he proves he is too much of a liability there (the organization, who tolerated Posada for years, is confident he'll be fine). He'd need to shift to DH or LF if he can't stick behind the plate, but that won't happen until 2012, unless something drastic changes in NYA's plans.

[LookinUp]

If only Guthrie had a little more notoriety.

I could see them going after a Garza/Shields/Johnson type of relatively young stud on a have-not team.

Guthrie just won't make the Yanks blush.

[Slappy]

No, not that the Yanks would do it anyway. We already have a high ceiling catcher. At some point we have to draw a line in the sand where we are going to try to compete at the major league level instead of continuing to spin the carousel of prospects.

[Sports Guy]

Of course you make that deal.

Even if you don't think you are going to keep im at catcher, you evaluate if you can move him to another position and if not, you trade him for something else. Montero may get you what you need more than Guthrie can.

[Brendan25]

I would not.

[TGO]

Montero would probably go a long way towards landing Greinke, who the Yankees claim they don't want.

SG, I'm sure you can come up with something here (although I know you're not big on Greinke right now). ;)

[Sports Guy]

Montero would probably go a long way towards landing Greinke, who the Yankees claim they don't want.

SG, I'm sure you can come up with something here (although I know you're not big on Greinke right now). ;)

I have no interest in Greinke to be honest and if Montero can go a long way towards landing Greinke, I think the Yankees would be the ones getting him, not us.

[isestrex]

Of course you make that deal.

Even if you don't think you are going to keep im at catcher, you evaluate if you can move him to another position and if not, you trade him for something else. Montero may get you what you need more than Guthrie can.

Yeah... this


I would hate to give up Guts to the evil empire but if Cash was stupid and desperate enough to accept that deal, you absolutely have to take it. Hopefully we could turn Montero around for something a lot bigger.

[Agent0]

I have no interest in Greinke to be honest and if Montero can go a long way towards landing Greinke, I think the Yankees would be the ones getting him, not us.

The only drawback to Montero is that right now he doesn't appear to have a position and I think that's why KC isn't big on him. Bat-wise, he seems to be fine.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Yeah... this


I would hate to give up Guts to the evil empire but if Cash was stupid and desperate enough to accept that deal, you absolutely have to take it. Hopefully we could turn Montero around for something a lot bigger.

If the O's had Montero they would have to find a place for him.

The question is not Guthrie for Montero--that isn't happening. The question is whether you would send Matusz in a trade for Montero and a nice second piece like Jose Ramirez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ramire011jos) or Manny Banuelos (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=banuel001man).

Or maybe Matusz and Pie for Montero and Gardner. I don't know if that would happen, but it's more realistic than Guthrie.

Montero, Gardner, and one of the pitching prospects would probably pry Greinke from the Royals if the Royals were so inclined.

[Stotle]

If the O's had Montero they would have to find a place for him.

The question is not Guthrie for Montero--that isn't happening. The question is whether you would send Matusz in a trade for Montero and a nice second piece like Jose Ramirez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ramire011jos) or Manny Banuelos (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=banuel001man).

Or maybe Matusz and Pie for Montero and Gardner. I don't know if that would happen, but it's more realistic than Guthrie.

Montero, Gardner, and one of the pitching prospects would probably pry Greinke from the Royals if the Royals were so inclined.

I agree with 100% of this, though I think the Yankees/Royals talks are made moot by what I am 99.9% sure is an ability for Greinke to block a trade to New York.

[SrMeowMeow]

Of course, but it will NEVER happen. Montero was a concession in the Cliff Lee trade talks - remember that guy?

[SrMeowMeow]

If the O's had Montero they would have to find a place for him.

The question is not Guthrie for Montero--that isn't happening. The question is whether you would send Matusz in a trade for Montero and a nice second piece like Jose Ramirez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ramire011jos) or Manny Banuelos (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=banuel001man).

Or maybe Matusz and Pie for Montero and Gardner. I don't know if that would happen, but it's more realistic than Guthrie.

Montero, Gardner, and one of the pitching prospects would probably pry Greinke from the Royals if the Royals were so inclined.

Why is Matusz for Montero a good deal?

[Stotle]

Why is Matusz for Montero a good deal?

I don't think AB was saying it was a good deal -- I think he was just saying it was the start of a fair deal (as opposed to Montero for Guthrie).

[Arthur_Bryant]

Why is Matusz for Montero a good deal?

Straight up, it's not. But it's close enough that it would start to get my attention.

[SrMeowMeow]

Straight up, it's not. But it's close enough that it would start to get my attention.

Really? If Montero has to DH, he has a relatively limited ceiling.

[Stotle]

Really? If Montero has to DH, he has a relatively limited ceiling.

Why wouldn't he be at 1B?

[Arthur_Bryant]

I agree with 100% of this, though I think the Yankees/Royals talks are made moot by what I am 99.9% sure is an ability for Greinke to block a trade to New York.

Even more important I think is that Greinke does not seem a Yankee type, at least from when I glean at a distance. He tends to say exactly what's on his mind at any time, which can make him sound almost goofy sometimes. Until 09 there was also a question about his mental focus; there would be stretches when he hardly flashed his best stuff. The KC media treats him very gently, almost protectively; that would certainly not be the case in NY.

The Yankees seem to look for a certain type, quietly cocky and seemingly ready to step onto the biggest stage. Greinke appears to be the antithesis of that type.

Which probably means that Cashman is out there dealing for him right this minute. :D

[baltfan]

Why wouldn't he be at 1B?

What evidence do you have that he can play the position? Everything that I have seen says he is not a major league catcher. Maybe he could transition to first or the OF, but there is a good risk that he is never more than a DH, or worse a DH that insists on playing in the field.

I still think I would probably do this deal, but it is not the slam dunk that many on here are claiming that it is. If Montero had a position, then it would be a slam dunk that you do it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Of course you make a Guthrie for Montero deal. You do it almost on reflex. Montero is a 20-year-old Carlos Delgado with six years of well below-market service time coming up. Jeremy Guthrie is good, but he's got his warts, and he's here for two more years at probably 60-75% of market rates in arbitration.

You'd be trading a low-cost DH/1B/C worth potentially 15-25+ wins over six years, for maybe 8 wins worth of Jeremy Guthrie at maybe $15M.

The only way the Yanks make that trade is if they think they're stocked at the corners and DH for years to come, but you're a starter short of the playoffs. And even then you can probably flip Montero for more.


Really? If Montero has to DH, he has a relatively limited ceiling.

I think you overstate your case. Players like Jason Giambi and Frank Thomas had multiple 5, 6, 7 win seasons as a DH or bad first baseman. Montero has that kind of potential. Carlos Delgado is the obvious comp, and his career was worth nearly 50 wins, which is in the Hall of Fame gray zone.

[MrOrange82]

Of course you make a Guthrie for Montero deal. You do it almost on reflex. Montero is a 20-year-old Carlos Delgado with six years of well below-market service time coming up. Jeremy Guthrie is good, but he's got his warts, and he's here for two more years at probably 60-75% of market rates in arbitration.

You'd be trading a low-cost DH/1B/C worth potentially 15-25+ wins over six years, for maybe 8 wins worth of Jeremy Guthrie at maybe $15M.

The only way the Yanks make that trade is if they think they're stocked at the corners and DH for years to come, but you're a starter short of the playoffs. And even then you can probably flip Montero for more.



I think you overstate your case. Players like Jason Giambi and Frank Thomas had multiple 5, 6, 7 win seasons as a DH or bad first baseman. Montero has that kind of potential. Carlos Delgado is the obvious comp, and his career was worth nearly 50 wins, which is in the Hall of Fame gray zone.

Agree with all of the above. Seems the OP question really should have been: would you be willing to give up what it'd actually cost to get Montero? The Yanks might be feeling some desperation for pitching help, but they'd have to be completely crazy to make that trade. Also, to answer my own question: no...price would likely be much too high (e.g. Matusz, as was mentioned earlier).

[Stotle]

What evidence do you have that he can play the position? Everything that I have seen says he is not a major league catcher. Maybe he could transition to first or the OF, but there is a good risk that he is never more than a DH, or worse a DH that insists on playing in the field.

I still think I would probably do this deal, but it is not the slam dunk that many on here are claiming that it is. If Montero had a position, then it would be a slam dunk that you do it.

I think most pro evaluators would disagree with you.

[SrMeowMeow]

I think you overstate your case. Players like Jason Giambi and Frank Thomas had multiple 5, 6, 7 win seasons as a DH or bad first baseman. Montero has that kind of potential. Carlos Delgado is the obvious comp, and his career was worth nearly 50 wins, which is in the Hall of Fame gray zone.

Maybe so. But that's still relatively limited upside for a stud prospect. From 2005-2010, the highest WAR posted by a 1B with -5 fielding or worse was Miguel Cabrera this year, with 6.2. But that was with a 1.044 OPS and only -6.2 fielding. The next best is Prince Fielder in 2007, with 5.3 WAR, and after him I don't think there's another player above 5 WAR. David Ortiz and Travis Hafner had a couple 5+ WAR seasons as DHs, but that's it.

The total WAR leaders in the DH or -5 or worse 1B categories for 2008 - 2010 are Miguel Cabrera at 14.7, Prince Fielder at 13.6, Paul Konerko at 7.6, Ortiz at 6.1, and Vlad at 6.0. In perspective, Miggy (Cabrera) comes in at 18th among all hitters, and Fielder at 22nd, with nobody else close. Does Montero's upside approach Miggy? I mean, Konerko put up an .873 OPS over that span, and 7.6 is good but not very exciting. I mean, Orlando Hudson put up 7.6 WAR. Tejada put up 7.3 WAR from 2008 - 2010.

Sure, if he puts up a .900 OPS with -5 defense in the majors, he'll be a star. But that seems like a risky projection for a 20-year-old.

[BrunoCherrytown]

The Yankees gave $2 million to Jesus Montero in July 2006, outbidding the Mets, the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians. Their investment got them a stocky 16-year-old hitting prodigy from Venezuela and the belief that they had signed their next great catcher. Here (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/11/sports/baseball/11kepner.html)

I wonder if we'll ever see the day when the Orioles make that kind of international acquisition...

[sangar]

It certainly can't hurt to make the call. In order for me to help them out of their pitching dilemma they would have to drastically overpay.

[mcgraw238]

Here (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/11/sports/baseball/11kepner.html)

I wonder if we'll ever see the day when the Orioles make that kind of international acquisition...

Nope, nada, never. Ain't gonna do it, wouldn't be prudent.

[BrunoCherrytown]

Nope, nada, never. Ain't gonna do it, wouldn't be prudent.

Why wouldn't it be prudent to go after the top talent wherever we can find it?

What exactly is prudent then?

Bargain basement free agent hunting?
Modest draft budget after the first round pick?
No international presence?

This is what we do now. It doesn't look that prudent in the standings every year.

[mcgraw238]

Why wouldn't it be prudent to go after the top talent wherever we can find it?

What exactly is prudent then?

Bargain basement free agent hunting?
Modest draft budget after the first round pick?
No international presence?

This is what we do now. It doesn't look that prudent in the standings every year.

I didn't mean it literally...Just spoofing the Dana Carvey Sat Night Live skit where he played Bush 41. Seemed like the mindset the O's would have on such a move.

[e16bball]

Of course you do this trade. A 32-year-old middle-of-a-good-rotation SP for a consensus top 5 prospect in baseball? That's one of those trades where I'd be storming the Warehouse if Andy didn't do it.

Unfortunately, the Yankees would never do this. So that leaves us with the question of either "what would we give up for Montero?" or "what would they give up for Guthrie?" Given that this question seems motivated mostly by the Lee signing, and that they really have no reason to be looking to move Montero, the interesting question seems to be what could we get for Guthrie.

The Yanks actually have some interesting prospects with impressive ceilings. Dellin Betances (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=betanc001del) is a hard-throwing K machine. Gary Sanchez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sanche001gar) is a huge upside teenage catcher.

My favorite, though, is Manny Banuelos (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=banuel001man), who was mentioned earlier by Arthur. He's a small lefty, which I think pushes him down the prospect rankings a little. But his fastball runs up to 96 (usually sits in the low 90s) and he has excellent control. His poise and mound presence are said to be top-notch, as well. And the production is there: 2.23 ERA (1.71 FIP) at High-A last season along with a AA promotion by the end of the year...at age 19.

Would I do Guthrie for Banuelos straight-up? It's awfully close. Banuelos is WAY ahead of where Tillman was at his age, and his floor is much higher than Tillman's because of the great control. Still, if we're giving Guthrie to the Yankees to pull their fat out of the fire, I think they'd have to come across with another prospect. Hector Noesi (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=noesi-001hec) is another guy I really like, but that's probably asking too much. Maybe a guy like Adam Warren (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=warren001ada)? Seems like a Berken type to me. Great character kid, solid stuff, good control. At the least looks like he'll be a solid reliever.

[waroriole]

At least then Girardi wouldn't have to cry about Guthrie hitting his guys. <World's smallest violin playing for Girardi>

[baltfan]

I think most pro evaluators would disagree with you.

Most pro-evaluators would disagree that he can't be a catcher or that if he will only be a DH that it isn't a slam dunk the Orioles should trade for him? Because there are tons of people that don't think he can catch as a regular in the big leagues.

The only reason I hesitate is the value that I think Guthrie brings to the Orioles. He is good for 200 cheap innings. He takes pressure and innings off of the younger pitchers. And he helps to make this team respectable.

I know that .500 isn't the end goal, but this team needs to have a .500 season in order to keep interest and get more people in the seats. I liken it to the end of the year last year. There were those that wanted to see the Orioles continue to lose in order to get the number 1 pick. But I think it was better for them to win in the way that they did in order to develop confidence and hopefully hasten the development of some of their younger players. Guthrie will help to assist the Orioles in achieving this goal.

I could see this team playing just over .500 ball with Guthrie, attendance swelling, and then going out and getting even better players because they feel that contention is in the air and other players think the Orioles have a legit shot. If they trade for Montero, I don't see .500 as a likely possibility and we are back to handing out confederate money.

I know Guthrie's likely WAR is 2.0. But the Orioles would have to not just replace him with a guy that may have a similar WAR but also someone that ends up being durable enough to take the pressure off the young guys and good enough to succeed in the AL East. There aren't a lot of guys out there that I can think of on the market that fit description.

Delgado was cited as a comp for Montero. But I remember him as being a bit more athletic than Montero. He was also advanced nearly as quickly as Montero, had better statistics, had more power, and still because of position issues (they had him moving from C to OF to 1B) spent his age 23 and 24 seasons in AAA.

[DrungoHazewood]

Sure, if he puts up a .900 OPS with -5 defense in the majors, he'll be a star. But that seems like a risky projection for a 20-year-old.

Absolutely it's a risk. But it's also the only reason the Yanks wouldn't hang up the phone the second you suggested such a deal. You're trading a few years of relatively safe, slightly better than average performance for the possibility of six years of of somewhere between ok and really spectacular performance. If Montero was a dead lock guarantee to be Carlos Delgado you'd have to start with Brian Matusz and add a bunch of value to get the Yanks to start listening.

[SrMeowMeow]

Absolutely it's a risk. But it's also the only reason the Yanks wouldn't hang up the phone the second you suggested such a deal. You're trading a few years of relatively safe, slightly better than average performance for the possibility of six years of of somewhere between ok and really spectacular performance. If Montero was a dead lock guarantee to be Carlos Delgado you'd have to start with Brian Matusz and add a bunch of value to get the Yanks to start listening.

Yes, but that's not what I mean. I think he's overrated because the bat is so good and positional questions kind of get swept under the rug. I would not trade Brian Matusz for him.

[Stotle]

Most pro-evaluators would disagree that he can't be a catcher or that if he will only be a DH that it isn't a slam dunk the Orioles should trade for him? Because there are tons of people that don't think he can catch as a regular in the big leagues.

The only reason I hesitate is the value that I think Guthrie brings to the Orioles. He is good for 200 cheap innings. He takes pressure and innings off of the younger pitchers. And he helps to make this team respectable.

I know that .500 isn't the end goal, but this team needs to have a .500 season in order to keep interest and get more people in the seats. I liken it to the end of the year last year. There were those that wanted to see the Orioles continue to lose in order to get the number 1 pick. But I think it was better for them to win in the way that they did in order to develop confidence and hopefully hasten the development of some of their younger players. Guthrie will help to assist the Orioles in achieving this goal.

I could see this team playing just over .500 ball with Guthrie, attendance swelling, and then going out and getting even better players because they feel that contention is in the air and other players think the Orioles have a legit shot. If they trade for Montero, I don't see .500 as a likely possibility and we are back to handing out confederate money.

I know Guthrie's likely WAR is 2.0. But the Orioles would have to not just replace him with a guy that may have a similar WAR but also someone that ends up being durable enough to take the pressure off the young guys and good enough to succeed in the AL East. There aren't a lot of guys out there that I can think of on the market that fit description.

Delgado was cited as a comp for Montero. But I remember him as being a bit more athletic than Montero. He was also advanced nearly as quickly as Montero, had better statistics, had more power, and still because of position issues (they had him moving from C to OF to 1B) spent his age 23 and 24 seasons in AAA.

Sorry, I was unclear. Most pro evaluators, I think, would say it is a slam dunk trade for Guthrie, even with the positional question. The bat plays at multiple positions, and the Yankees have shown a willingness to tolerate sub-par catch-and-throw backstops (like Posada). I see no reason he wouldn't be able to transfer to 1B. He has nice hands and good size. His range may be somewhat limited, but I'd be surprised if he didn't end up being solid.

Further, as others have noted, you should be able to spin him for more than Guthrie, if you were somehow able to get him 1-for-1 for Guthrie. Kansas City is an obvious match. Boston would have lots of interest, though their chips are now limited. Texas and Tampa would certainly have interest. Philly, NYN, WAS, SDN, COL, ARI, STL, HOU could all use that kind of a catching prospect.

I simply think his value is far above and beyond that of Guthrie's -- that six years of his high percentage bat and an outside shot to catch is worth more than the last couple years of Guthrie's very solid offerings in the rotation.

[DannyO]

With the Yankees now looking for a good starter, should we dangle Guthrie? I'd hate to trade him to the Yankees, but for a guy who could be a stud for a long time like Montero, it might be worth it.

Am I insane to think the Yankees would consider it?

No, because Guthrie has been a valuable and effective starting pitcher at the major league level and a prospect, no matter how highly touted, is a suspect until he does something at the major league level.

Also, I woudn't trade anyone to the Yankees who could make us regret it. Let some other team do that.

[DrungoHazewood]

No, because Guthrie has been a valuable and effective starting pitcher at the major league level and a prospect, no matter how highly touted, is a suspect until he does something at the major league level.

There's some level of truth there, but there's also a lot of hyperbole. Are you telling me you wouldn't trade a major league average player for Dwight Gooden the year he struck out 300 guys in 180 innings in the minors? Or Strasburg, or Harper, or Joe Mauer after he ripped through the minors hitting .330?

There's obviously some threshold where massive potential trumps safe average-ness. And I think Montero for Guthrie clearly blows by that threshold.

[OrangeJerseys]

There's some level of truth there, but there's also a lot of hyperbole. Are you telling me you wouldn't trade a major league average player for Dwight Gooden the year he struck out 300 guys in 180 innings in the minors? Or Strasburg, or Harper, or Joe Mauer after he ripped through the minors hitting .330?

There's obviously some threshold where massive potential trumps safe average-ness. And I think Montero for Guthrie clearly blows by that threshold.

I don't understand all this logic and reason. :vader:

[BaltimoreTerp]

Yes, but that's not what I mean. I think he's overrated because the bat is so good and positional questions kind of get swept under the rug. I would not trade Brian Matusz for him.

Unless you think the bat only plays as "so good" at catcher and not so much at first base, do the positional questions mean that much?