Which Direction are the Orioles Headed ???

[OFFNY]

In the last 13 seasons, the Orioles have almost always finished horribly. We either start good and finish horribly, or start decent and finish horribly. This past season, our overall record was par for the course: 68-94. However, unlike the previous 13 losing seasons, not only did the Orioles avoid a horrible finish .......... they had the second best record in all of baseball over the last two months of the season (the Minnesota Twins were a game better). We've seen most of what we will and won't get in the off season. So, which direction are we headed in 2011 ???

The Choices (give or take a couple of game):

A. 60-102: Not just another loser, but worse: we finally lose 100 games.

B. 68-94: Par for the course ..... no better and no worse than most of the 13 previous seasons.

C. 77-83: A significant improvement, but still a few games below .500.

D. 84-78: A marked improvement, and finally a winning season.

E. 93-69: An improvement that would indicate that we are as great as we played in the final two months of 2010, and a playoff birth in the toughest division in baseball.


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[GotNitro]

My head says C but my heart voted D. :)

[Dipper9]

I said C for now. IF they sign LaRoche or Lee, Vladdy or Thome, and a starting pitcher, we might have a shot at .500

[JTrea81]

Whoops meant to pick D.

A winning season, but still treading water.

[CompuCoach]

D. 84-78: A marked improvement, and finally a winning season.

It's not a guarantee that they'll have a winning season, but I feel they'll be at least pretty close when it's all said and done.

[OFFNY]

Whoops meant to pick D.

A winning season, but still treading water.

Ahhhhhh Trea, you messed up the poll percentages. :mad: :)


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[crowmst3k!]

81+ wins would be lovely.

It would make some "premium" FAs take notice.

[OFFNY]

I voted this, but

the comment doesn't match the range provided (82+ is a winning season, yet you started at 78 wins here).

It's not a guarantee that they'll have a winning season, but I feel they'll be at least pretty close when it's all said and done.

No, I started at 84 wins for that choice ....... 78 losses. And it's give or take a couple of games (between 82-80 and 86-76). Same for the other choices. :)


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[Craig...No Dots]

I voted D because its the offseason and in the Offseason I always vote D over C, so to say.

[TradeAngelos]

I wonder how many people who voted "D" are the same ones defending the FO for not going after anyone because we "aren't ready to contend". Anyone want to take a stab at that one?

And I would love to hear how we are going to make an 18 game improvement in the standings, the delusions of grandeur knows no bounds around here if you think anything we have done in the past month will net us +18 in the win column.

Was it the Reynolds deal who will net us another 18 wins? Or was it Accardo? Retaining Koji? The prolific JJ Hardy? Did I miss anyone? Let me guess "Buck ball" alone will net us another 15 wins. Maybe he can pull a Rose and be a player coach and give us 50/140/.325 in the middle of the lineup.

Please explain, I must be missing something.

[Napoleon Solo]

I wonder how many people who voted "D" are the same ones defending the FO for not going after anyone because we "aren't ready to contend". Anyone want to take a stab at that one?

And I would love to hear how we are going to make a 18 game improvement in the standings, the delusions of grandeur know no bounds around here if you think anything we have done in the past month will net us +18 in the win column.

Was it the Reynolds deal who will net us another 18 wins? Or was it Accardo? Retaining Koji? The prolific JJ Hardy? Did I miss anyone? Let me guess "Buck ball" alone will net us another 15 wins. Maybe he can pull a Rose and be a player coach and give us 50/140/.325 in the middle of the lineup.

Please explain, I must be missing something.

I think the faith in our young core to take the next step can explain that for you.

[tilgaham]

I wonder how many people who voted "D" are the same ones defending the FO for not going after anyone because we "aren't ready to contend". Anyone want to take a stab at that one?

And I would love to hear how we are going to make a 18 game improvement in the standings, the delusions of grandeur know no bounds around here if you think anything we have done in the past month will net us +18 in the win column.

Was it the Reynolds deal who will net us another 18 wins? Or was it Accardo? Retaining Koji? The prolific JJ Hardy? Did I miss anyone? Let me guess "Buck ball" alone will net us another 15 wins. Maybe he can pull a Rose and be a player coach and give us 50/140/.325 in the middle of the lineup.

Please explain, I must be missing something.

We underperformed our talent level for the entire first half.

[maybe2050]

I think the faith in our young core to take the next step can explain that for you.

Voted B with the standing point we're at right now, but if we lock up Laroche, Gregg, a DH, and another veteran starter, I would have to vote C

[maybe2050]

I think the faith in our young core to take the next step can explain that for you.

Is that the same faith that gained us the earth-shattering amount of wins from the core of Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, Daniel Cabrera, Rodrigo Lopez, Sidnesy Ponson, and Eric DuBose ?

[OFFNY]

We underperformed our talent level for the entire first half.

Indeed ....... underperformed to almost record-setting proportions. :eek:


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[OFFNY]

Is that the same faith that gained us the earth-shattering amount of wins from the core of Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, Daniel Cabrera, Rodrigo Lopez, Sidnesy Ponson, and Eric DuBose ?

I think that it's more of a faith that saw us go 34-23 over the last two months of last season in a division in which the Yankees, the Rays, and the Red Sox were all fighting for playoff spots ........... something that would have gotten you labeled as certifiably insane if you had predicted that that would happen this past August 1st.


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[battlefeverjnb]

I wonder how many people who voted "D" are the same ones defending the FO for not going after anyone because we "aren't ready to contend". Anyone want to take a stab at that one?

And I would love to hear how we are going to make a 18 game improvement in the standings, the delusions of grandeur know no bounds around here if you think anything we have done in the past month will net us +18 in the win column.

Was it the Reynolds deal who will net us another 18 wins? Or was it Accardo? Retaining Koji? The prolific JJ Hardy? Did I miss anyone? Let me guess "Buck ball" alone will net us another 15 wins. Maybe he can pull a Rose and be a player coach and give us 50/140/.325 in the middle of the lineup.

Please explain, I must be missing something.


I'll do my best to find 18 wins. Let's see...

Reynolds = +2
JJ Hardy = +2
Full season of Roberts = +3
Full season of Koji = +2
Improvement from young players = +3
Buck's influence/smart coaching = +3
First Base or DH addition = +2
Better than Millwood addition = +2
Rays and Yankees losing a few more games = +2

Total = +21

Honestly, I wasn't planning on having a total that high when I started, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized just how possible all of these factors are. Give or take 1-5 games and you still have yourself a decent club! This is why I voted D!

[Ven6]

I'll do my best to find 18 wins. Let's see...

Reynolds = +2
JJ Hardy = +2
Full season of Roberts = +3
Full season of Koji = +2
Improvement from young players = +3
Buck's influence/smart coaching = +3
First Base or DH addition = +2
Better than Millwood addition = +2
Rays and Yankees losing a few more games = +2

Total = +21

Honestly, I wasn't planning on having a total that high when I started, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized just how possible all of these factors are. Give or take 1-5 games and you still have yourself a decent club! This is why I voted D!


It's December 18th. Sign me up for this.

[OFFNY]

It's December 18th. Sign me up for this.

Actually, I don't think that it's a question of how exactly we will achieve 18 more wins than last season's overall record ......... The Orioles were two completely different teams last year. The April-July Orioles (awful), and the August-September Orioles (outstanding). The question is not comparing last year's season win total to what we think this season's win total will be. The real question is, which Orioles will we see next season ??? The April-July Orioles ? Or the August-September Orioles ? Or, somewhere in between ?


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[battlefeverjnb]

Actually, I don't think that it's a question of how exactly we will achieve 18 more wins than last season's overall record ......... The Orioles were two completely different teams last year. The April-July Orioles (awful), and the August-September Orioles (outstanding). The question is not comparing last year's season win total to what we think this season's win total will be. The real question is, which Orioles will we see next season ??? The April-July Orioles ? Or the August-September Orioles ? Or, somewhere in between ?


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I honestly think we'll see somewhere in between, but will be consistent about it throughout the year. If I had to make a stab, though, I'd say we will be leaning closer towards the August-September Orioles a bit more and that is what will give us our first winning season in forever.

[helloharv]

Improved slightly but Still have a long way to go.....No way we finish above .500 with our current team.

[jets4ever]

Whoops meant to pick D.

A winning season, but still treading water.

I did.

Though I don't think they're anywhere near treading water.

[crowmst3k!]

If they have a winning season, I will hurl confetti high into the air on the night that they clinch, preferably at Camden Yards.

[bandy75]

I wanted to pick E. With some things breaking right and our young players coming on strong, I believe it's possible. Having said that, I went with D, and am optimistic that they will outperform my pick.

[OFFNY]

Mostly D's and C's. Pretty much what I expected. And for those of you that voted "E,", shame on you !!! This is an Orioles board ! Curse Angelos, denigrate MacPhail, and feel sorry for yourself .......... NO DREAMING !!!


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[OFFNY]

OK, since almost everyone voted .........

Exactly 100 votes combined between "C" and "D" ......... with "C" getting the edge by a 63-37 count.

4 voters that voted "E", based on what their lying eyes witnessed over the last two months of the 2010 season .

One voter that voted "A", based on what his/her lying eyes witnessed over the first four months of the 2010 season.

And 5 voters that voted "B", because ............. probably because they wake up every morning in a bad mood. :D :)


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[MomoMan316]

Playoffs baby!! Nothin less!!

[grimed1]

I have not seen the O's get some depth in the minor leagues. We still need some relief pitchers. Our minor league system is not good and most teams don't even want most of our players.

[OK_Os_Fan]

Voted for C. Hoping for a few more wins than that, but it is a long season.

Have to agree with grimed1's post about our minors noting how little we have in the upper minors that can be MLB ready any time soon.

At some point the FO needs to bring in better talent evaluators and get improved talent through the draft.
A few years down the road the Os may stock it a bit with some of the accomplished core moving on, but that only happens if the core guys fully develop.

[OFFNY]

No election on the Orioles Hangout is complete until F ROBBY votes. :)


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[Sports Guy]

My question is, where are they headed long term in this division?

I see no reason to think they are headed for anything better than 3rd place and even that may be pushing it.

[TradeAngelos]

My question is, where are they headed long term in this division?



Nowhere fast at this rate.

Anyone want to dig up some win prediction threads from last year(or the year before, or before...or before, you get the idea) and see how that worked out?

There is a fine line between optimism and insanity, and anyone who thinks this club will finish over .500 with these players, in this division crossed over that line a long time ago.

I predicted 78 wins last year. How about everyone else?

[OFFNY]

My question is, where are they headed long term in this division?

I see no reason to think they are headed for anything better than 3rd place and even that may be pushing it.

Good question. Actually, at this point, I'm not concerned about where we finish in our the division in 2011 ........ I would be concerned if I thought we had a shot at the playoffs, but I don't think we do. Right now, our overall record is much more important than where we place. I would much rather finish in last place with a record of 83-79 than finish in 3rd place with a record of 74-88. We have to start somewhere, and a winning season is a great start. Now ....... perhaps if we can put together a couple of consecutive winning seasons and establish ourselves as a serious contender, then I would be thinking in terms of coming in 2nd place and snaring the wildcard, or even first place and winning the division.

Don't get me wrong. I would like nothing better than to win 89 or more games and make the post-season this year........... But, considering that this team has been in a shambles for more than a decade, a winning season is definitely much more of a priority than where we place.


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[Sports Guy]

Predicted 82, and was obviously off.
They were horrible for months, and played over their head for two.
They were a .500 team over their last 74 games... have upgraded at SS, have upgraded at 3rd.. should be able to upgrade at 1st...

What matters is what happens with their younger core, and this gets to SG's message above. That core either steps forward this year significantly as they get one year closer to their primes.... or they do not.

Either way by the end of 2011, we will have a much more definitive understanding of where the O's are long-term.

Even if the core advances, AM will still need to make the proper moves to augment the team...and more importantly, PA will have to approve them.

I have no confidence that both of those things come together.

Our core is going to have hit their respective ceilings and we are going to have to get lucky with some of our moves where we take chances on guys...In other words, we need to find our David Ortiz type guy.

[maybe2050]

My question is, where are they headed long term in this division?

I see no reason to think they are headed for anything better than 3rd place and even that may be pushing it.

"See", we do agree on some things

[Sports Guy]

Those questions are somewhat irrelevant at this time.

Really the only thing that matters is what the core does. If they step forward, the O's have a group of players to match with anyone.

NY and Boston will regularly have teams capable of 90-95 wins... the O's will to get to that level to contend. If those players do not progress... there are no additions coming that would make that possible.

You probably didn't believe they would obtain Hardy and Reynolds even though those were moves you wanted.

I felt Reynolds was a good possibility.

I have said it before...AM will always be in the mix and pursue players he feels are a bargain.

As much as AM liked DH, I guarantee you that he feels he pretty much stole Reynolds.

That is what he does. He looks for bargains...at least for the most part.

The Gregg and LaRoche offers seem to be flying in the face of that.

[Dipper9]

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