Why Not Sign Guerrero *And* Keep Scott?

[CharmCityCrab]

A lot of folks are assuming a Guerrero signing would result in the Orioles looking to trade Luke Scott, but I don't see why that would have to be the case. Lord knows we could use both players' bats in the lineup. Sure, both players probably are best as DHs, but I'm not persuaded that Scott is wholly inadequate in LF. He's slow for the position, but doesn't seem to have half of the issues with fundamentals that Nolan Reimold has -- and could be replaced in the late innings with a better defensive player after what looks like the last at-bat for his spot in the order.

I think the offense one gets back from Scott in LF and Guerrero at DH more than makes up for the defensive issues that might result. Honestly, how good are any of our left field candidates at playing the field anyway? Reimold is abysmal out there, and Pie has some of the physical tools but still makes stupid mistakes in the field (Though not to Reimold levels) -- and neither are really solid major league starter types with the bat. Reimold is better than he looked with the bat last year, but not enough to make up for his horrendous defense consistently -- and Pie is the sort of guy who may have a decent career but as the sort of guy non-contenders keep around as a 3rd or 4th outfielder, not as a guy who is a big plus to have in your lineup.

The idea that Guerrero would block anyone who deserves a shot is just not true, to my way of thinking. It'd be one thing if we had a 5-tool prospect tearing up AAA last year. Instead, though, we have two players who have tried and failed, and project at best to be average, barring one of those unexpected breakout seasons people occasionally have to establish a better career after logic would tell you to give up on them. I'll take the veteran with the .300 batting average and 100 RBIs, thank you.

And, call me a broken record, but if Angelos really thinks we're overbudget and doesn't want to give Guerrero a freaking one year 4 million dollar deal, which is all he reportedly wants, he should sell the team. Yeah, yeah, all roads lead to Rome (Angelos selling), but it is the obvious roadblock this organization has to ever being consistently competitive. We need an owner who is willing to spend some money -- at least *try* to be competitive.

[BRob411]

A lot of folks are assuming a Guerrero signing would result in the Orioles looking to trade Luke Scott, but I don't see why that would have to be the case. Sure, both players probably are best as DHs, but I'm not persuaded that Scott is wholly inadequate in LF. He's slow for the position, but doesn't seem to have half of the issues with fundamentals that Nolan Reimold has -- and could be replaced in the late innings with a better defensive player after what looks like the last at-bat for his spot in the order.

I think the offense one gets back from Scott in LF and Guerrero at DH more than makes up for the defensive issues that might result. Honestly, how good are any of our left field candidates at playing the field anyway? Reimold is abysmal out there, and Pie has some of the physical tools but still makes stupid mistakes in the field (Though not to Reimold levels) -- and neither are really solid major league starter types with the bat. Reimold is better than he looked with the bat last year, but not enough to make up for his horrendous defense consistently -- and Pie is the sort of guy who may have a decent career but as the sort of guy non-contenders keep around as a 3rd or 4th outfielder, not as a guy who is a big plus to have in your lineup.

The idea that Guerrero would block anyone who deserves a shot is just not true, to my way of thinking. It'd be one thing if we had a 5-tool prospect tearing up AAA last year. Instead, though, we have two players who have tried and failed, and project at best to be average, barring one of those unexpected breakout seasons people occasionally have to establish a better career after logic would tell you to give up on them. I'll take the veteran with the .300 batting average and 100 RBIs, thank you.

And, call me a broken record, but if Angelos really thinks we're overbudget and doesn't want to give Guerrero a freaking one year 4 million dollar deal, which is all he reportedly wants, he should sell the team. Yeah, yeah, all roads lead to Rome (Angelos selling), but it is the obvious roadblock this organization has to ever being consistently competitive. We need an owner who is willing to spend some money -- at least *try* to be competitive.

Spot on with all of your points, we don't need to trade Luke, having more offense is always a plus.

[Dipper9]

To me, the ONLY reason you sign Vlad is if you are trying to improve the offense for THIS season. If the plan is to sign Vlad and then trade Scott for whatever, then they might as well just go with Pie in left and Reimold at DH and have the extra bench spot for a Fox type player.

In other words, signing Vlad and trading Scott need not be contingent on one another.

[El Gordo]

The difference in likely production between Vlad and a Pie/Reimold platoon is marginal IMO, especially when you factor in the drop in defense in LF. Vlad would be more fun, but not a major difference maker. Trading Scott to significally upgrade the SP would be a major difference maker

[srock]

Agree. In fact, I would prefer to keep Scott. Trade Pie or bump Reimold to Norfolk.

But the real value in signing Vlad, is the flexibility he provides to trade Pie, Reimold, Scott, or himself should the opportunity present itself.

I would absolutely not trade Scott (or Pie) just to clear a roster spot.

[CharmCityCrab]

The difference in likely production between Vlad and a Pie/Reimold platoon is marginal IMO,

You think Pie and Reimold can hit .300 with a combined 29 HR and 115 RBIs in a platoon situation? Or do you think Vlad is going to have a cataclysmic fall-off from last year to this year? Granted, Guerrero is getting older and could decline some, but if someone bet me, I'd say his numbers would far exceed a Pie/Reimold platoon. Not even close. And, hey, if Vlad falls off dramatically, one could always plug Pie or Reimold in there in June -- they aren't going anywhere (You can keep Pie as a 4th OF and start Reimold in AAA) -- and Vlad's contract would be off the books at the end of the year (He's talking one year deal).

[weams]

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[El Gordo]

You think Pie and Reimold can hit .300 with a combined 29 HR and 115 RBIs in a platoon situation? Or do you think Vlad is going to have a cataclysmic fall-off from last year to this year? Granted, Guerrero is getting older and could decline some, but if someone bet me, I'd say his numbers would far exceed a Pie/Reimold platoon. Not even close. And, hey, if Vlad falls off dramatically, one could always plug Pie or Reimold in there in June -- they aren't going anywhere (You can keep Pie as a 4th OF and start Reimold in AAA) -- and Vlad's contract would be off the books at the end of the year (He's talking one year deal).If Pie and Reimold performed at the same level that they did last year in a platoon, they would produce at about a .730 OPS 12-15 HR and 60-70 RBI. I think it's a good bet they will do better than that. I also think it's a good bet that Vlad won't put up last season's numbers in 2011. I'd estimate between .780 and .820 OPS. Given the drop in LF defense I think the difference will be marginal and quite possibly Pie and Reimold could be better than Vlad. In any case the result won't be much more than a couple of W's either way. Meh.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Sure you could keep both and put Scott in LF. I think most people on the anti-Vlad bandwagon (myself included) understand that. The reason you don't keep both isn't about how good the offense would be this year, but what it does for the team in subsequent years. It's important that we figure out exactly what we have in Reimold and Pie this year and by signing Vlad and not trading Scott you're limiting the opportunities either player will receive (or trading them when their values are low). Reimold and Pie represent potential long term solutions in the field and we can't afford to let this season go to waste. Neither player is getting younger and at some point you either fish or cut bait. Players like Vlad (at 35) will always be available for us to sign when we really have the need. If not, you can always acquire a guy like that at the deadline. But for this year, I'd rather let Pie and Reimold get as much playing time as their fragile bodies can handle. :D

[Bradysburns]

To me, the ONLY reason you sign Vlad is if you are trying to improve the offense for THIS season. If the plan is to sign Vlad and then trade Scott for whatever, then they might as well just go with Pie in left and Reimold at DH and have the extra bench spot for a Fox type player.

In other words, signing Vlad and trading Scott need not be contingent on one another.

Yes, indeed. The whole fun would be having both in the order. And signing Vlad and trading Scott would also tilt your lineup further to the right-handed side... which would make even less sense.

[El Gordo]

Sure you could keep both and put Scott in LF. I think most people on the anti-Vlad bandwagon (myself included) understand that. The reason you don't keep both isn't about how good the offense would be this year, but what it does for the team in subsequent years. It's important that we figure out exactly what we have in Reimold and Pie this year and by signing Vlad and not trading Scott you're limiting the opportunities either player will receive (or trading them when their values are low). Reimold and Pie represent potential long term solutions in the field and we can't afford to let this season go to waste. Neither player is getting younger and at some point you either fish or cut bait. Players like Vlad (at 35) will always be available for us to sign when we really have the need. If not, you can always acquire a guy like that at the deadline. But for this year, I'd rather let Pie and Reimold get as much playing time as their fragile bodies can handle. :DWell put. It is not the time to fish or cut bait with Pie or Reimold, yet.

[hoosiers]

Sure you could keep both and put Scott in LF. I think most people on the anti-Vlad bandwagon (myself included) understand that. The reason you don't keep both isn't about how good the offense would be this year, but what it does for the team in subsequent years. It's important that we figure out exactly what we have in Reimold and Pie this year and by signing Vlad and not trading Scott you're limiting the opportunities either player will receive (or trading them when their values are low). Reimold and Pie represent potential long term solutions in the field and we can't afford to let this season go to waste. Neither player is getting younger and at some point you either fish or cut bait. Players like Vlad (at 35) will always be available for us to sign when we really have the need. If not, you can always acquire a guy like that at the deadline. But for this year, I'd rather let Pie and Reimold get as much playing time as their fragile bodies can handle. :D

Reimold is not going anywhere and after last season should start in Norfolk. There will be at-bats for Pie - even with Guerrero/Scott.

I could go either way with Vlad, but there is potential upside/trade bait at the deadline with Vlad. If one wants to put the best team on the field based on current availability, then I believe signing Vlad to a good contract has to be considered a strong option.

[FR500]

Spot on with all of your points, we don't need to trade Luke, having more offense is always a plus.

Agree. Sign Vlad now and keep Luke. More offense the better!

And who care's about the stinking salaries? Not me. Of course they are absurd. Get over it.

[EtotheKallday17]

A lot of folks are assuming a Guerrero signing would result in the Orioles looking to trade Luke Scott, but I don't see why that would have to be the case. Lord knows we could use both players' bats in the lineup. Sure, both players probably are best as DHs, but I'm not persuaded that Scott is wholly inadequate in LF. He's slow for the position, but doesn't seem to have half of the issues with fundamentals that Nolan Reimold has -- and could be replaced in the late innings with a better defensive player after what looks like the last at-bat for his spot in the order.

I think the offense one gets back from Scott in LF and Guerrero at DH more than makes up for the defensive issues that might result. Honestly, how good are any of our left field candidates at playing the field anyway? Reimold is abysmal out there, and Pie has some of the physical tools but still makes stupid mistakes in the field (Though not to Reimold levels) -- and neither are really solid major league starter types with the bat. Reimold is better than he looked with the bat last year, but not enough to make up for his horrendous defense consistently -- and Pie is the sort of guy who may have a decent career but as the sort of guy non-contenders keep around as a 3rd or 4th outfielder, not as a guy who is a big plus to have in your lineup.

The idea that Guerrero would block anyone who deserves a shot is just not true, to my way of thinking. It'd be one thing if we had a 5-tool prospect tearing up AAA last year. Instead, though, we have two players who have tried and failed, and project at best to be average, barring one of those unexpected breakout seasons people occasionally have to establish a better career after logic would tell you to give up on them. I'll take the veteran with the .300 batting average and 100 RBIs, thank you.

And, call me a broken record, but if Angelos really thinks we're overbudget and doesn't want to give Guerrero a freaking one year 4 million dollar deal, which is all he reportedly wants, he should sell the team. Yeah, yeah, all roads lead to Rome (Angelos selling), but it is the obvious roadblock this organization has to ever being consistently competitive. We need an owner who is willing to spend some money -- at least *try* to be competitive.

Agree 100%...I believe having both would be ideal for this team...too much offense is never a bad thing. We need the lefty power bat in the lineup, and if we get rid of him, I think our lineup will be too heavily right handed...

[blackbirds21]

I wouldn't mind having both of them on the team. When Luke hits one of his prolong cold streets, we have Vlad to make up for it. Also, if Pie once again gets injured we can move Luke to left and Vlad becomes full time DH.