New Article: "Rotation Roulette" by Nowick Gray

[ScottieBaseball]

Orioles Hangout writer and resident stat-head Nowick Gray takes a stats-style look at how the Orioles starting rotation could shape up as the Birds head north in a two more weeks.

Check here for the whole story (http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=2916). Enjoy!

[Dagger420]

Cool analysis and I like the idea, but I think the injury part is a bit off as its only limited to 5. Duchscherer's injury probability in my opinion would be much more than 2/5 of Jake Arrieta, considering Arrieta has been in premium physical shape this spring and has done well and Duke has pitched very little and has only two innings this spring due to injury concerns. He hopes to "throw" in a day or two, but how many times will he "throw" before he is ready to pitch in a MLB game?

I'd have to agree with most of the analysis besides that. But without overthinking it, I'd say the rotation is Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta for the first month of the season because I don't think the fifth will really be needed early. Plus it will make it easier to pick a bench with an extra spot to use on offense.

But if there is a fifth, I'd go with Tillman, since Britton is scheduled for a AAA start and they will want him to wait a month before they bring him up. Plus, I think they want him to work on his command a bit more.

I just don't see Duke being ready for opening day. They may just go with four until he is ready possibly right about when they'd need a fifth starter.

[now]

Cool analysis and I like the idea, but I think the injury part is a bit off as its only limited to 5. Duchscherer's injury probability in my opinion would be much more than 2/5 of Jake Arrieta, considering Arrieta has been in premium physical shape this spring and has done well and Duke has pitched very little and has only two innings this spring due to injury concerns. He hopes to "throw" in a day or two, but how many times will he "throw" before he is ready to pitch in a MLB game?

I'd have to agree with most of the analysis besides that. But without overthinking it, I'd say the rotation is Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta for the first month of the season because I don't think the fifth will really be needed early. Plus it will make it easier to pick a bench with an extra spot to use on offense.

But if there is a fifth, I'd go with Tillman, since Britton is scheduled for a AAA start and they will want him to wait a month before they bring him up. Plus, I think they want him to work on his command a bit more.

I just don't see Duke being ready for opening day. They may just go with four until he is ready possibly right about when they'd need a fifth starter.

I have to agree with your analysis now as we move further toward OD (I actually wrote the article a few days ago, and things change fast). You make a good point about the simplified rating scale, too, where in reality the weighting of the various factors such as injuries is not so linear (1, 2, 3 ...). Overall it's just an exercise, but I find it fascinating when a thumbnail calculation can actually approximate what we feel is likely (or to say it another way, "when stats and scouts agree"). ;)

[webbrick2010]

Cool analysis and I like the idea, but I think the injury part is a bit off as its only limited to 5. Duchscherer's injury probability in my opinion would be much more than 2/5 of Jake Arrieta, considering Arrieta has been in premium physical shape this spring and has done well and Duke has pitched very little and has only two innings this spring due to injury concerns. He hopes to "throw" in a day or two, but how many times will he "throw" before he is ready to pitch in a MLB game?

I'd have to agree with most of the analysis besides that. But without overthinking it, I'd say the rotation is Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta for the first month of the season because I don't think the fifth will really be needed early. Plus it will make it easier to pick a bench with an extra spot to use on offense.

But if there is a fifth, I'd go with Tillman, since Britton is scheduled for a AAA start and they will want him to wait a month before they bring him up. Plus, I think they want him to work on his command a bit more.

I just don't see Duke being ready for opening day. They may just go with four until he is ready possibly right about when they'd need a fifth starter.

I would think the next step is to assign some weightings to each category. I don't feel experience is as important as health. Clearly the way it looks right now Duchesher's health is going to prevent him from being a candidate at all.