Should we sign Guthrie to an extension?

[rbandy95]

Curious as to how people feel about extending Guthrie. I used to be on the fence, but I think we should sign him to a 3-4 year deal at fair market value. We do not have a lot of SP depth in the high minors and Guthrie seems to have embraced the role of leader of this staff. It also seems like he is very well liked by the younger SPs and the rest of his teammates. Jeremy may not be a flashy strikeout per inning guy, but he has developed into one of the most consistent pitchers in the American League, an important guy to have on a staff full of emerging arms.

[Moose Milligan]

SG will be here shortly to explain why Guthrie should have been traded in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and yesterday.

;)

[LookitsPuck]

Yes....

[PrivateO]

I wouldn't want to sign with a team that can't score for me.

[nerdlinger]

Yes, if he doesn't want ridiculous money, then by all means, a 3 yr deal would be ideal. We're just gonna have to sign some middle of the road guy in the off season to replace him anyway, why not just keep a guy who can pitch in the AL east and is very effective? He will probably not have to be the ace much longer considering what we're seeing from Britton and of course Matusz, not to mention Arrieta has not looked shabby either. I like the idea!

[JDBirds10]

No because obviously the Orioles hitters do not like him and refuse to score runs when he pitches.

[nerdlinger]

lol, It must be frustrating to not get run support but Guthrie doesn't seem like a "ME" kind of guy, so as long as he keeps us in the game and we eventually win the game, his win-loss record is not all that relevant.

[notfast]

What would be a starting point? 3/$30m? 4/$36m?

[Tank]

What would be a starting point? 3/$30m? 4/$36m?

I might consider 3/30 but no way would I give him four years.

[nerdlinger]

3/30 I'd do in a heartbeat, i think he'd be a bargain, compared to the Jon Garland's of the world getting that same kind of $$

[Leo Gomez]

Buying out 2012, 3/30 is completely reasonable for both club and player.

[JTrea81]

The Orioles have no intention of extending Guthrie IMO.

[ShaneDawg85]

Jeremy Guthrie is 32 years old, and has had paltry strikeout to walk numbers his entire career, even in his "prime" years. He's less than two seasons removed from a disastrous 2009 season, and he's always been prone to giving up the long ball. Why am I to believe that he's going to buck the trends and somehow get better as he gets older? Don't get me wrong, I like Guthrie, always have and always will. But he's been getting by with average at best numbers his entire career, and while he might have been able to get away with it when he was younger, chances aren't good he can do it as he ages. There's been many chances to trade him, and if I'm the Orioles I still look to do so.

[TradeAngelos]

Jeremy Guthrie is 32 years old, and has had paltry strikeout to walk numbers his entire career, even in his "prime" years. He's less than two seasons removed from a disastrous 2009 season, and he's always been prone to giving up the long ball. Why am I to believe that he's going to buck the trends and somehow get better as he gets older? Don't get me wrong, I like Guthrie, always have and always will. But he's been getting by with average at best numbers his entire career, and while he might have been able to get away with it when he was younger, chances aren't good he can do it as he ages. There's been many chances to trade him, and if I'm the Orioles I still look to do so.

I guess if you consider "average at best" a 4 ERA in the AL BEast and eating up 195 innings a year you might be onto something. Even that "disaster" of a year you speak of he was at a 5.0 while pitching 200 innings.

We definitely don't need a guy like that in the rotation for the next 4 years.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I guess if you consider "average at best" a 4 ERA in the AL BEast and eating up 195 innings a year you might be onto something. Even that "disaster" of a year you speak of he was at a 5.0 while pitching 200 innings.

We definitely don't need a guy like that in the rotation for the next 4 years.

Why should we expect even a 4 ERA in the division in years 3-4 when he's 35-36?

[ChrisAF79]

Why should we expect even a 4 ERA in the division in years 3-4 when he's 35-36?
Because Guthrie is well known for keeping himself in peak physical condition. Not to mention, his arm does not have nearly the mileage on it of other guys his age due to his 2 years out of baseball while on Mormon missions.

I think one can make a very strong case for extending Guthrie. I wouldn't go over 3 years, but I think that would get it done. Something like 3/30 should do it, maybe 3/36 tops.

[Steve I]

I wouldn't want to sign with a team that can't score for me.

THIS, question remains, do the O's want Guts? If we can't score for him in like forever, is he liquid nitrogen to our offense for whatever reason? He has enough of a track record to rule out a fluke, the O's do not support Guts when he pitches. I have no explanation, but after this long, maybe it is just not explainable. Guts could totally do with a change of offense and he might bring some nice prospects.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Yes....

I agree!
SIGN HIM NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BaltimoreTerp]

Because Guthrie is well known for keeping himself in peak physical condition.

Yeah, because he'd be the first 35-year-old pitcher who could say that :p

[Catch 8]

As much as I like Guthrie -- and he has been a wonderful find for us -- offer him Arb. If he accepts, great. If he declines, take the two first round picks.

[BIRDIEBOY]

Let Andy work his magic and get some good players in return. We need more young talent.

[JohnnyK27]

I personally think we should resign him rather than let him walk. What concerns me about trading would be the return. Guthrie is much more valuable than a pile of spare parts. I'd personally want a package 2-3 of nearly ready prospects to deal him. If the Orioles can get that than they should hang onto him.

[Frobby]

I have mixed feelings. It depends a little on how the rest of the year plays out, not just for him, but our other five starters. But I do think he has 3 solid years left in him after this one.

[webbrick2010]

No, although he piles up innings he has a way of losing more often than he wins. If the O's get shut out he gives up 1 or 2, if we score 3 he gives up 4 or 5. I think we should trade him this year at the trading deadline assuming we can get value.

[DrungoHazewood]

As much as I like Guthrie -- and he has been a wonderful find for us -- offer him Arb. If he accepts, great. If he declines, take the two first round picks.

I seriously doubt he takes the arbitration. He would likely get something like a 3/30 deal. Logically, you could assume he's going to be worth 2.5, 2 and 1.5 wins over the next three years. That's a total of six wins, or about 25-28M or so. It is free agency, so someone will slightly overpay.

I really wouldn't have a problem with a 3/30 deal for someone who has thrown 200 innings pretty consistently and most years is 20% better than league average RA. What's the downside (besides the injury risk inherent in any pitcher)? Something like the last year or two you're paying $10M for a durable, mediocre pitcher? I'll take that risk.

The two draft picks should net a surplus value of a few $million each. It's better than nothing, and nice to supplement the farm, but the odds are excellent that Guthrie will return more value in the next 2-3 years than the picks will ever. I guess you could always let Guthrie go, take the picks, then sign a Guthrie clone to replace him... if you could be sure you got a similar pitcher on a similar deal.

[Phantom]

I think 3/30 or more would be paying him for what he has been, not what he's going to be. I appreciate what he has done for us, but that is not a winning strategy for a non big market team.

[Dipper9]

I like him, but for whatever reason the team just does not score runs for Guts. I'd try to trade him first, but if we can't, I have no issues with keeping him.

[ShaneDawg85]

I guess if you consider "average at best" a 4 ERA in the AL BEast and eating up 195 innings a year you might be onto something. Even that "disaster" of a year you speak of he was at a 5.0 while pitching 200 innings.

We definitely don't need a guy like that in the rotation for the next 4 years.

I think you missed my point entirely. Why should we believe, when he's had average at best strikeout to walk ratios and been home run prone in his prime years, that he's likely to continue giving us a 4 ERA and around 200 innings a year at age 34-36? Maybe he really is the type to buck the aging trend and get better as he gets older. But those types are a very rare commodity. My point isn't that we don't need guys like that in the rotation, it's that I don't expect him to continue on that path the next three to four years.

[ShaneDawg85]

No, although he piles up innings he has a way of losing more often than he wins. If the O's get shut out he gives up 1 or 2, if we score 3 he gives up 4 or 5. I think we should trade him this year at the trading deadline assuming we can get value.

Well when you spend your entire career pitching on bad teams with bad lineups the odds of that happening are quite elevated.:rolleyes:

[Frobby]

As much as I like Guthrie -- and he has been a wonderful find for us -- offer him Arb. If he accepts, great. If he declines, take the two first round picks.


I seriously doubt he takes the arbitration. He would likely get something like a 3/30 deal. Logically, you could assume he's going to be worth 2.5, 2 and 1.5 wins over the next three years. That's a total of six wins, or about 25-28M or so. It is free agency, so someone will slightly overpay.

I really wouldn't have a problem with a 3/30 deal for someone who has thrown 200 innings pretty consistently and most years is 20% better than league average RA. What's the downside (besides the injury risk inherent in any pitcher)? Something like the last year or two you're paying $10M for a durable, mediocre pitcher? I'll take that risk.

The two draft picks should net a surplus value of a few $million each. It's better than nothing, and nice to supplement the farm, but the odds are excellent that Guthrie will return more value in the next 2-3 years than the picks will ever. I guess you could always let Guthrie go, take the picks, then sign a Guthrie clone to replace him... if you could be sure you got a similar pitcher on a similar deal.

All very interesting, but Guthrie is not a free agent until after the 2012 season.

[Sports Guy]

No..he should be traded.

[webbrick2010]

Yeah I know you are right... but somehow it always seems that Guthrie will do just enough to lose instead of doing just enough to win. He is a good pitcher but since he does not strike out many, and gives up more fly balls than ground outs he will rarely completely shutdown a team. I guess he really is a great #3 that has suffered being the #1 on the Orioles.

[waroriole]

No..he should be traded.

Yeah this. He's my favorite player on the O's, but doing what's best for this team we should look to move him before he's a FA unless he helps us on a playoff run. Even then, I wouldn't re-sign him, just hope I can get 2 picks for him.

[Frobby]

Yeah I know you are right... but somehow it always seems that Guthrie will do just enough to lose instead of doing just enough to win. He is a good pitcher but since he does not strike out many, and gives up more fly balls than ground outs he will rarely completely shutdown a team. I guess he really is a great #3 that has suffered being the #1 on the Orioles.

Since he got here in 2007, Guthrie is 22nd in MLB in IP, 25th in starts, and 30th in ERA (among pitchers with at least 600 IP in that span; Guthrie has over 800 IP). He's a poor team's no. 1 starter, but a solid no. 2 on the vast majority of teams IMO.

[Burg]

No, although he piles up innings he has a way of losing more often than he wins. If the O's get shut out he gives up 1 or 2, if we score 3 he gives up 4 or 5. I think we should trade him this year at the trading deadline assuming we can get value.

Really? Of all the ways to support an argument either way you choose wins?

[HokieOs]

Unless we're miraculously in contention this year, I say we look to trade him. But if we can't get anything real good, we keep him. Do the same in 2012. Again, if we don't get anything good, keep him. Offer him arbitration... if he declines, we get a first round pick. We could use another to help beef up the minors.

[El Gordo]

Trade him to the Yankees, now.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah I know you are right... but somehow it always seems that Guthrie will do just enough to lose instead of doing just enough to win.

In 1903 or 1933 or 1973 that was called being a loser.

In 2011 it's called poor run support.

[DrungoHazewood]

All very interesting, but Guthrie is not a free agent until after the 2012 season.

Hmm, I suppose that changes the calculations a bit. I don't see much of a reason to extend/trade him until closer to his impending free agency.


No, although he piles up innings he has a way of losing more often than he wins. If the O's get shut out he gives up 1 or 2, if we score 3 he gives up 4 or 5. I think we should trade him this year at the trading deadline assuming we can get value.

If that was actually true, and he really had a lack of skill in pitching to the score (which it isn't), why wouldn't another team see that and offer little in trade for him?

I'm always a little amazed by the position folks take that's basically "this guy we have isn't performing up to expectations, everyone here on the interwebs can see his flaws, so the Orioles need to trade him to a Major League Baseball team that hasn't been clued into this yet."

[El Gordo]

I don't think at his age his value will be much higher. I think the MFY's would love to have him right now, and we might get more from them now, than we will ever get in any future Guthrie trade.

[TGO]

If he wanted to sign something like a 2/22 deal I could go for that. I doubt he would give up a year of FA for that, though. He is looking at maybe 9 MM in arb next year.

Otherwise I'd rather wait and see where we are at for 2012. If we have a shot, keep him for the year and take your chances with him becoming a FA (and if we're out of the race in July 2012, see what you can get and weigh that vs picks). If we don't have a shot next year, see what you can get on the trade market in the offseason.

[PrivateO]

I don't think at his age his value will be much higher. I think the MFY's would love to have him right now, and we might get more from them now, than we will ever get in any future Guthrie trade.

What do you think the Yankees would be willing to part with for Guthrie?

[El Gordo]

What do you think the Yankees would be willing to part with for Guthrie?Well, we have to wait until the bloom comes off the roses of Garcia and Colon. But we could get some nice prospects. Maybe one of Banuelos, Noesi, or Nova, and one of Heathcott, Laird, or Adams.

[Tank]

Highly doubt we'd get Banuelos or Montero but would be amazing if we did.

[wildcard]

I would wait under the off season to make a decision on whether to extend Guthrie.