View Full Version : TILLMAN Tonight: 5/22 vs. Nationals
OFFNY
05-22-2011, 03:23 PM
TILLMAN TONIGHT
IP: 5
R: 1
H: 6
BB: 2
SO: 4
2011 ERA: 4.95
Pitches: 97 (61 Strikes, 36 Balls)
VeveJones007
05-22-2011, 03:30 PM
It may have just been me, but didn't it look like he threw some sliders today? I checked MLB Gamecast, and it seemed to think so as well.
It looked like a very good pitch at times, helping him get out of that 2nd and 3rd with 1 out jam early in the game.
JohnnyK27
05-22-2011, 03:55 PM
How was his velocity?
Spy Fox
05-22-2011, 04:05 PM
If Tillman stays in the rotation when Matusz returns, hopefully they don't arrange the pitchers so Tillman and Arrieta are pitching on back-to-back days.
He and Arrieta have trouble going more than 5 or 6 innings so it would be helpful for the bullpen to not have those sort of games twice in a row. (I don't know of any reason why they actually would juggle the rotation in such a way, just a random thought.)
VeveJones007
05-22-2011, 04:08 PM
How was his velocity?
His velocity was fine. He was 89-92 with the FB.
Can_of_corn
05-22-2011, 04:11 PM
He looked fine the velocity will be ok if he can keep throwing that cutter/slider he had working today.
He needs to become more pitch efficient, even slotted as the 5th guy.
The Rick
05-22-2011, 04:28 PM
While still frustrating, Tillman has impressed as of late with his ability to limit the "Self Inflicted" damage when he allows multiple base runners in an inning.
Scrat1
05-22-2011, 04:31 PM
He's certainly making improvements, but I still just do not enjoy watching him pitch.
vatech1994
05-22-2011, 04:35 PM
I really hope they don't send this guy down. He is starting to get it. He may not make it, but he has the potential to be a really good pitcher and we need to give him a chance to reach that potential IMHO. The guy can throw some outstanding pitches with a 4FB, 2FB, cutter/slider, CB, and CU. It is about consistency with him. The potential is there. He threw some outstanding curveballs and cutters today. Outstanding.
Stotle
05-22-2011, 04:42 PM
I really hope they don't send this guy down. He is starting to get it. He may not make it, but he has the potential to be a really good pitcher and we need to give him a chance to reach that potential IMHO. The guy can throw some outstanding pitches with a 4FB, 2FB, cutter/slider, CB, and CU. It is about consistency with him. The potential is there. He threw some outstanding curveballs and cutters today. Outstanding.
Yup. Have said all year he is really learning how to use his stuff. Would be unfortunate for the organization to not ride this out.
Remember The Alomar
05-22-2011, 04:47 PM
I really hope they don't send this guy down. He is starting to get it. He may not make it, but he has the potential to be a really good pitcher and we need to give him a chance to reach that potential IMHO. The guy can throw some outstanding pitches with a 4FB, 2FB, cutter/slider, CB, and CU. It is about consistency with him. The potential is there. He threw some outstanding curveballs and cutters today. Outstanding.
I think after this start he's won the 5th spot from Bergesen. Buck said he was impressed with his stuff--particularly his cutter--in his presser. Couple that with the fact that Bergesen actually has some experience in the pen I'd be shocked to see Tillman sent down when Matusz returns. If Tillman can continue to display the stuff he had today going forward I really like our rotation as a whole.
The Rick
05-22-2011, 04:53 PM
I really hope they don't send this guy down. He is starting to get it. He may not make it, but he has the potential to be a really good pitcher and we need to give him a chance to reach that potential IMHO. The guy can throw some outstanding pitches with a 4FB, 2FB, cutter/slider, CB, and CU. It is about consistency with him. The potential is there. He threw some outstanding curveballs and cutters today. Outstanding.
Is he getting lucky with RISP, or is he just making smart pitches to get out of jams?
Crazysilver03
05-22-2011, 04:53 PM
I think after this start he's won the 5th spot from Bergesen. Buck said he was impressed with his stuff--particularly his cutter--in his presser. Couple that with the fact that Bergesen actually has some experience in the pen I'd be shocked to see Tillman sent down when Matusz returns. If Tillman can continue to display the stuff he had today going forward I really like our rotation as a whole.
Well the idea is that Bergesen will be skipped with the off day tomorrow.
But Bergesen only has three appearances out of the bullpen for his career, only one this season. He barely has "some" experience there.
Sports Guy
05-22-2011, 04:53 PM
I really hope they don't send this guy down. He is starting to get it. He may not make it, but he has the potential to be a really good pitcher and we need to give him a chance to reach that potential IMHO. The guy can throw some outstanding pitches with a 4FB, 2FB, cutter/slider, CB, and CU. It is about consistency with him. The potential is there. He threw some outstanding curveballs and cutters today. Outstanding.
Yup. Have said all year he is really learning how to use his stuff. Would be unfortunate for the organization to not ride this out.
Yep...and while people point out that he hasn't been pitch efficient(which is true), he is still learning and tweaking things as he goes.
If all he does is go 5 or 6 IP right now, that's ok...He will throw in some stinkers and some better outings as well...but things are definitely progressing for him.
BTW, 2 more key stats today: 63% strke%...16% swingingstr%.
Remember The Alomar
05-22-2011, 04:54 PM
Is he getting lucky with RISP, or is he just making smart pitches to get out of jams?
Today he was making smart pitches. Particularly his cutter.
Remember The Alomar
05-22-2011, 04:55 PM
Well the idea is that Bergesen will be skipped with the off day tomorrow.
But Bergesen only has three appearances out of the bullpen for his career, only one this season. He barely has "some" experience there.
Should have looked that up before oldfanning it. For some reason I thought he spent more time there.
JDBirds10
05-22-2011, 06:19 PM
Is he getting lucky with RISP, or is he just making smart pitches to get out of jams?
He was getting lucky. Tillman has been lucky his last few starts.
Sports Guy
05-22-2011, 06:48 PM
He was getting lucky. Tillman has been lucky his last few starts.
Was it luck that allowed an IF hit to score a run against him?
Was it luck that allowed an IF hit to score a run against him?
Did you watch the game? Did you think Tillman pitched well?
Stotle
05-22-2011, 07:02 PM
I really hope they don't send this guy down. He is starting to get it. He may not make it, but he has the potential to be a really good pitcher and we need to give him a chance to reach that potential IMHO. The guy can throw some outstanding pitches with a 4FB, 2FB, cutter/slider, CB, and CU. It is about consistency with him. The potential is there. He threw some outstanding curveballs and cutters today. Outstanding.
Could you send me a PM when you get a chance? Your inbox is full. Thanks.
Well, I hope I'm wrong but I still see a guy with a mostly 89-91 mph, straight fastball, with poor command of it. The fastball sets up everything else. I don't see how he can succeed (consistently) with it.
He's also had a lot of help from his defense.
Was it luck that allowed an IF hit to score a run against him?If it didn't hit him, it was going through and scoring two runners...
O-The-Memories
05-22-2011, 07:37 PM
I still see a fringe starter in the making. If we can sell high at some point I would. He's been getting lucky as of late, and his stuff just isn't very good. I was pleased to see a little more velocity today, so perhaps that bodes well for the future.
vatech1994
05-22-2011, 07:49 PM
Is he getting lucky with RISP, or is he just making smart pitches to get out of jams?
IMHO, some of both. He made some really good pitches to strike out the Nats 2 & 3 hitters with runners on 2nd and 3rd. He obviously got a bit lucky when Bernandina flew to the base of the wall with the bases jacked later in the game. Coming into today his numbers with runners on base were MUCH HIGHER than his numbers with the bases empty. He was due to come back to the mean a bit.
He is still allowing too many runners to reach base due to silliness. A good example was the walk to Cora. But I do see a lot of improvement.
The at bats I see from good hitters tell me this guy isn't easy to hit. Hitters don't appear to see his fastball well. They swing like he is throwing harder than the radar gun indicates. Maybe it is the slow curve and change making them wait a bit longer or maybe the balls comes out of nowhere. Regardless, it is a good thing for Chris. Based on today's cutter and the swings he got on it, I also think hitters aren't seeing the difference between the FB and cutter very easily. That bodes really well for Chris too.
vatech1994
05-22-2011, 07:53 PM
Well, I hope I'm wrong but I still see a guy with a mostly 89-91 mph, straight fastball, with poor command of it. The fastball sets up everything else. I don't see how he can succeed (consistently) with it.
Don't you think the FB command was better today? I saw a lot of knee high fastballs today. Quite a few of them missed 2-6 inches off the outside corner, but he was able to get low to both sides of the plate with it. That is a drastic improvement.
I agree that his 4FB looks mighty straight and not real hard, but even good hitters don't seem to square it up much. At some point, I begin to believe that there is something I can't see on the radar gun or CF camera.
VeveJones007
05-22-2011, 07:56 PM
WAR is a flawed stat, but I think it's still interesting to use to compare players. Anyway, here are the two most valuable O's starters through today's game:
Zach Britton - 1.0 WAR
Chris Tillman - 0.7 WAR
Frobby
05-22-2011, 07:58 PM
Well, I hope I'm wrong but I still see a guy with a mostly 89-91 mph, straight fastball, with poor command of it. The fastball sets up everything else. I don't see how he can succeed (consistently) with it.
I guess I must be the only person left in the world who doesn't think the velocity of a pitcher's fastball is all that important. Plenty of guys get it done at 89-91 mph.
Moose Milligan
05-22-2011, 07:59 PM
He is getting better, no doubt about it. I've never been a fan of his but hopefully he really is progressing and on his way to realizing his true potential.
I think he could throw harder if he engaged his lower body a little bit more, but that's just me.
Moose Milligan
05-22-2011, 07:59 PM
I guess I must be the only person left in the world who doesn't think the velocity of a pitcher's fastball is all that important. Plenty of guys get it done at 89-91 mph.
I think it more has to do with the fact that when we got him, he was billed as someone who could work in the mid 90's. That velocity suddenly disappeared.
Don't you think the FB command was better today? I saw a lot of knee high fastballs today. Quite a few of them missed 2-6 inches off the outside corner, but he was able to get low to both sides of the plate with it. That is a drastic improvement.
I agree that his 4FB looks mighty straight and not real hard, but even good hitters don't seem to square it up much. At some point, I begin to believe that there is something I can't see on the radar gun or CF camera.
I don't know. There were swings right threw his fastball but he can't seem to do it twice in the same AB. Pudge swung threw one on the outside corner and then hit a bullet to Scott on the next one he saw. Bernadina had some great swings off of him. The Nats aren't exactly a great lineup either. His curve was probably the best I've seen it and he did throw some good cutters. He just seems to always be living on the edge and that catches up to you sooner or later in the majors. Men on in every inning. Long AB's to most hitters. Inability to finish hitters off. Sure, he can put a good game together but I don't see the big deal even if he gets more consistent. I see a #4 starter, maybe.
I guess I must be the only person left in the world who doesn't think the velocity of a pitcher's fastball is all that important. Plenty of guys get it done at 89-91 mph.
How many of the top pitchers in baseball get it done at 89-91?
Remember The Alomar
05-22-2011, 08:05 PM
The funny thing is--if you're a FIP fan--he's actually been quite unlucky.
VeveJones007
05-22-2011, 08:10 PM
The funny thing is--if you're a FIP fan--he's actually been quite unlucky.
Yeah, but not so much with xFIP. His FB/HR% is really low--something like 3%.
vatech1994
05-22-2011, 08:10 PM
How many of the top pitchers in baseball get it done at 89-91?
Well, maybe different expectations is the reason for the different opinions. I would be shocked if Tillman is ever "one of the top pitchers" in baseball, but I think a #3/#4 starter can be really valuable, especially if you already have a #1 and #2 on the team.
Remember The Alomar
05-22-2011, 08:14 PM
How many of the top pitchers in baseball get it done at 89-91?
Mark Buehrle, Bronson Arroyo, Ted Lilly, Jason Vargas, Derek Lowe, Colby Lewis, and Wandy Rodriguez are all average to above average starters with FB's that average in anywhere from the mid to high 80's
Trevor Cahill, Jamie Garcia, and Jair Jurrjens are all very good pitchers that have FB's that average around 89 MPH.
Tillman averages 89.1
I'm sure I'm missing a bunch of other guys as well.
I agree that his 4FB looks mighty straight and not real hard, but even good hitters don't seem to square it up much. At some point, I begin to believe that there is something I can't see on the radar gun or CF camera.
Like with Koji, no?
I guess I must be the only person left in the world who doesn't think the velocity of a pitcher's fastball is all that important. Plenty of guys get it done at 89-91 mph.
Again, Koji is one of them; even when it looks straight to us.
Steve I
05-22-2011, 08:15 PM
Well, maybe different expectations is the reason for the different opinions. I would be shocked if Tillman is ever "one of the top pitchers" in baseball, but I think a #3/#4 starter can be really valuable, especially if you already have a #1 and #2 on the team.
Agree, Tillman doesn't have the velocity to be #1 or 2, but if he can master that whatever it was to go along with his curve and his 88-92 FB, well he could flourish as a #3 or 4. Who knows, he is young still. Fun to speculate. At times today, he was filthy. I'll take that.
Remember The Alomar
05-22-2011, 08:17 PM
Yeah, but not so much with xFIP. His FB/HR% is really low--something like 3%.
Oh, of course. I don't think he's a ~3.5 ERA pitcher with awful luck. Just thought it was interesting.
Still, his xFIP is 4.56.
VeveJones007
05-22-2011, 08:20 PM
Oh, of course. I don't think he's a ~3.5 ERA pitcher with awful luck. Just thought it was interesting.
Still, his xFIP is 4.56.
Oh, I agree. He's definitely somewhere in between. I was just throwing some more data out there.
Mark Buehrle, Bronson Arroyo, Ted Lilly, Jason Vargas, Derek Lowe, Colby Lewis, and Wandy Rodriguez are all average to above average starters with FB's that average in anywhere from the mid to high 80's
Trevor Cahill, Jamie Garcia, and Jair Jurrjens are all very good pitchers that have FB's that average around 89 MPH.
Tillman averages 89.1
I'm sure I'm missing a bunch of other guys as well.
Where are you getting your numbers? Hard to believe the Trevor Cahil that I've seen on TV "averages" 89 mph.
Remember The Alomar
05-22-2011, 08:42 PM
Where are you getting your numbers? Hard to believe the Trevor Cahil that I've seen on TV "averages" 89 mph.
Fangraphs. Under pitch type.
89.2 MPH to be exact.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6249&position=P#pitchtype
maybenxtyr
05-22-2011, 08:47 PM
Fangraphs. Under pitch type.
89.2 MPH to be exact.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6249&position=P#pitchtype
I think that people have a certain speed in their minds, and if apitcher does not throw at that rate then he can not be effective. It may be just me, but it seems as though most pitchers do not throw as hard as they did a few years back. Of course there are still guys who can heat it up, but the majority seem to be in the 90 or so range.
Singleton
05-22-2011, 09:29 PM
How many of the top pitchers in baseball get it done at 89-91?
Well maybe he's not going to be one of the top pitchers in baseball. Obviously, we want five aces but that's not too likely. He's 23 years old and clearly learning on the job. He's still got a fair bit to work on and i'm sure there will be more bumps in the road but we can also appreciate the value of a young kid keeping his team in the game 6-7 times out of 9 -- and that's not all bad.
OFFNY
05-22-2011, 09:32 PM
A pitcher's thread with legs. Cool. :)
weams
05-22-2011, 10:00 PM
His stuff looked real good today. And he was getting squeezed as always. If ever he gets the reputation for hitting his spots he will be very good. And he hit 92 often today.
His stuff looked real good today. And he was getting squeezed as always. If ever he gets the reputation for hitting his spots he will be very good. And he hit 92 often today.
We watched two different games. He got sqeezed today?
Catch 8
05-22-2011, 10:54 PM
Mark Buehrle, Bronson Arroyo, Ted Lilly, Jason Vargas, Derek Lowe, Colby Lewis, and Wandy Rodriguez are all average to above average starters with FB's that average in anywhere from the mid to high 80's
Trevor Cahill, Jamie Garcia, and Jair Jurrjens are all very good pitchers that have FB's that average around 89 MPH.
Tillman averages 89.1
I'm sure I'm missing a bunch of other guys as well.
Lefties do not count for your argument.
MurphDogg
05-22-2011, 11:01 PM
We watched two different games. He got sqeezed today?
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=501957&game=gid_2011_05_22_wasmlb_balmlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=.gif
Two called strikes out of the strikezone, many more balls in the strikezone and on the border. Looks like he wasn't getting the bottom couple inches of the strikezone.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=501957&game=gid_2011_05_22_wasmlb_balmlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=.gif
Two called strikes out of the strikezone, many more balls in the strikezone and on the border. Looks like he wasn't getting the bottom couple inches of the strikezone.
Nobody gets what should be the bottom of the zone. Pitchers tend to get the ball an inch or two inside or an inch or two outside. The never get the one that is an inch or two low. In fact, they seldom get the one at the bottom of the zone which should be a strike. At least that's the way it' looks to me when they've got the strike box on the screen and they review pitches. I certainly don't think Tillman is getting squeezed more than other pitchers. Is he? It would be interesting to see Zimmerman's chart for today.
Remember The Alomar
05-22-2011, 11:15 PM
Lefties do not count for your argument.
Uh, why?
Edit: I was bored and procrastinating from working so I did some research.
I assume you said they don't count because it's easier for a lefty to get away with a slower fastball then it is for a right handed pitcher. There are 191 starting pitchers in the MLB. 49 are left handed so 26% of all SP's are left handed.
41 pitchers have an average FB speed of 89.9 or below. 61% were righties while 39% were lefties. Honestly, I thought it would be somewhere between 33-35%. I wouldn't go so far as to say that "they didn't count" for the point I was trying to make, but you have a point.
Still, even if take out Garcia, Wandy, etc and add on some soft tossing righties I didn't name, I think it's still fair to say that a righty that sits around 89 can be successful.
Unsure if you were disputing that in the first place. I'm just really bored and looking for any excuse not to do work.
OFFNY
05-22-2011, 11:28 PM
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=501957&game=gid_2011_05_22_wasmlb_balmlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=.gif
Two called strikes out of the strikezone, many more balls in the strikezone and on the border. Looks like he wasn't getting the bottom couple inches of the strikezone.
Good post, green rep. :)
MurphDogg
05-22-2011, 11:58 PM
Nobody gets what should be the bottom of the zone. Pitchers tend to get the ball an inch or two inside or an inch or two outside. The never get the one that is an inch or two low. In fact, they seldom get the one at the bottom of the zone which should be a strike. At least that's the way it' looks to me when they've got the strike box on the screen and they review pitches. I certainly don't think Tillman is getting squeezed more than other pitchers. Is he? It would be interesting to see Zimmerman's chart for today.
I agree with your assessment, I actually found this chart to be much more interesting than the Tillman chart
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/zoneplot.php-pitchSel=all&game=gid_2011_05_22_wasmlb_balmlb_1&sp_type=2&s_type=7.gif
That is the chart for both teams with a left-handed batter up. Tichenor called a great game when there were right-handers at the plate, not missing a call that was more than an inch or two on or off the corner. I don't understand how he blew that many calls with left-handed batters up.
primetime
05-23-2011, 11:41 AM
I guess I must be the only person left in the world who doesn't think the velocity of a pitcher's fastball is all that important. Plenty of guys get it done at 89-91 mph.
This is true but the guys that have success at their speed can hit actually hit the glove with consistency and don't constantly go to full counts. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that Tillman is keeping us in games and giving us a chance to win but he still doesn't pass the eye test for me.
He has poor body language, that is to say he never looks really sure of himself, then he hangs his head and appears to sulk when something goes wrong. His pace is dreadfully slow, to the point where it's difficult for to even watch the guy pitch, I can't imagine what it's like to play behind him. I know these are all "intangibles" and the numbers tell a slightly different story but when a guy consistently cannot get past the 5th inning that's a red flag for me.
First and foremost, he needs to starts to putting hitters away with consistency, which will allow him to get deeper into games. I suppose if we expect him to be a back end of the rotation starter, then he's there. If he's going to be a front end starter, he's got a lot work to do. He's 23, he's headed in the right direction but for me, he's absolutely maddening to watch pitch.
EddieEddie
05-23-2011, 12:25 PM
The issue is that he is at 89-92 with absolutely zero movement on his 4FB. The cutter actually worked a bit yesterday so that was good to see. Hopefully he can keep that going and command it. His curveball has always been good. But without a respectable fastball, its meat.
Sports Guy
05-23-2011, 12:28 PM
Tillman has to have good fastball command.
If he can do that and get ahead in the count, the curveball becomes a much more dangerous pitch.
BTW, I still wish he would throw the changeup more.
He needs to throw less 4S fastballs and more cutters and changeups.
MikeAD
05-23-2011, 12:44 PM
Tillman has to have good fastball command.
If he can do that and get ahead in the count, the curveball becomes a much more dangerous pitch.
BTW, I still wish he would throw the changeup more.
He needs to throw less 4S fastballs and more cutters and changeups.
This is true. Another reason why he needs to be in the rotation and not coming out of the bullpen. John Maine (when he was good) was alot like this, if 35-40% of his FBs were cutters and his change up was locating right, then it was a good start. If it was all 4SFBs, and the cutter wasn't moving, then it was fly balls that turn into Homers. Tillmans got to find a way to lock in early and be hitting his pitches. It can't be FB, FB, curve.
The cutter is nice and it seems like hes getting more off speed pitches over for strikes, setting up his fastball better. I definitely see improvement.