How many blown saves will it take?

[ChuckS]

How many blown saves before Koji replaces Gregg as closer? It's a legitimate question and Showalter seems to be stubborn on the issue. I'm going to say three more (including two that will have to be back to back) and it will happen sometime in late June or early July.

It's funny how this is and has been the most obvious choice for everyone since Spring Training, but that Buck is so blind to it. Just look at the numbers man!

[Frobby]

I'd prefer Koji as the closer, but I think the issue is overrated. Either way, Gregg is going to pitch about 70-80 innings, mostly in close games. Will we be much happier if Gregg blows leads in the 7th or 8th innings, before we can even get the ball to Koji, as opposed to letting Koji protect a lead in the 7th or 8th, possibly pitching 2 innings, and then taking our chances with Gregg? I think it will make very little difference which way we do it, except that blowing a game in the 7th or 8th is less aggravating than blowing one in the 9th.

It's sort of like when B.J. Ryan and Jorge Julio switched roles between 2004 anf 2005. Ryan was the better closer, but we lost the flexbility of bringing Ryan in during key moments in the 7th or pitching multiple innings. So, a lot of what was gained by having Ryan close was lost by having to use Julio in Ryan's earlier role. However, the 9th inning certainly was more peaceful.

[isestrex]

How many blown saves before Koji replaces Gregg as closer? It's a legitimate question and Showalter seems to be stubborn on the issue. I'm going to say three more (including two that will have to be back to back) and it will happen sometime in late June or early July.

It's funny how this is and has been the most obvious choice for everyone since Spring Training, but that Buck is so blind to it. Just look at the numbers man!

Sure thing...


Year Tm Lg G SVOpp SV BSv SV% SVSit
2007 FLA NL 74 36 32 4 89% 42
2008 FLA NL 72 38 29 9 76% 43
2009 CHC NL 72 30 23 7 77% 31
2010 TOR AL 63 43 37 6 86% 46
2011 BAL AL 20 11 8 3 73% 11
9 Seasons 426 161 130 31 81% 180

Lg AVG 2011 49 18 11 6 63% 37



Perhaps you want Buck to look at other numbers? <a href="http://s1106.photobucket.com/albums/h367/isestrex/Emoticons/?action=view&amp;current=huh.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1106.photobucket.com/albums/h367/isestrex/Emoticons/huh.gif" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>

[LookitsPuck]

Career 4.02 ERA from a closer? Very meh.
Career 1.34 WHIP? Yuck

1.707 WHIP this year? YUCK!

[ChuckS]

I'd prefer Koji as the closer, but I think the issue is overrated. Either way, Gregg is going to pitch about 70-80 innings, mostly in close games. Will we be much happier if Gregg blows leads in the 7th or 8th innings, before we can even get the ball to Koji, as opposed to letting Koji protect a lead in the 7th or 8th, possibly pitching 2 innings, and then taking our chances with Gregg? I think it will make very little difference which way we do it, except that blowing a game in the 7th or 8th is less aggravating than blowing one in the 9th.

It's sort of like when B.J. Ryan and Jorge Julio switched roles between 2004 anf 2005. Ryan was the better closer, but we lost the flexbility of bringing Ryan in during key moments in the 7th or pitching multiple innings. So, a lot of what was gained by having Ryan close was lost by having to use Julio in Ryan's earlier role. However, the 9th inning certainly was more peaceful.

I disagree. Gregg, even as a setup man, won't be in there in every close game. Where as with your closer you are going to have them in there in any ninth inning (or extra inning) situation where you are ahead by three runs or less. JJ can be our primary setup man with Gregg being the secondary choice.

[ChuckS]

Sure thing...


Year Tm Lg G SVOpp SV BSv SV% SVSit
2007 FLA NL 74 36 32 4 89% 42
2008 FLA NL 72 38 29 9 76% 43
2009 CHC NL 72 30 23 7 77% 31
2010 TOR AL 63 43 37 6 86% 46
2011 BAL AL 20 11 8 3 73% 11
9 Seasons 426 161 130 31 81% 180

Lg AVG 2011 49 18 11 6 63% 37



Perhaps you want Buck to look at other numbers? <a href="http://s1106.photobucket.com/albums/h367/isestrex/Emoticons/?action=view&amp;current=huh.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1106.photobucket.com/albums/h367/isestrex/Emoticons/huh.gif" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>

Sarcasm noted. I think I would rather have Buck look at these numbers:

2.49 0.88 .179 (Koji)

3.72 1.71 .257 (Gregg)

Not to mention that Koji has a 26:5 K to BB ratio where has Gregg has an appalling 15:15. Gregg's numbers as a closer have been an average at best over his career and with Gregg in the ball game there is always the potential for disaster. This isn't rocket science here. If you want to have a better chance at winning the ball game go with Koji.

[foxfield]

If Koji was durable he would be the closer. You know that, I know that, Buck knows that...I think Buck simply wants to make sure we have Koji all year. I do not fault him for that at all. It's called looking at the big picture.

[ChuckS]

If Koji was durable he would be the closer. You know that, I know that, Buck knows that...I think Buck simply wants to make sure we have Koji all year. I do not fault him for that at all. It's called looking at the big picture.

Wasn't a problem the last two months of last year. I doubt you would see him used a whole lot more either way. It's more about Koji being in there in better situations and removing Gregg from as many pivotal situations in the game as possible.

Now he's durable enough to be a primary setup guy but not durable enough to close? This doesn't make sense to me. Especially since setup guys will have to pitch more than an inning at times. Gregg may have gotten the chance to close first because of Koji's uncertain durability, but at this point I think it's been proven and Buck needs to let up from his stubbornness and make a change.

[MrOrange82]

Wasn't a problem the last two months of last year. I doubt you would see him used a whole lot more either way. It's more about Koji being in there in better situations and removing Gregg from as many pivotal situations in the game as possible.

Now he's durable enough to be a primary setup guy but not durable enough to close? This doesn't make sense to me. Especially since setup guys will have to pitch more than an inning at times. Gregg may have gotten the chance to close first because of Koji's uncertain durability, but at this point I think it's been proven and Buck needs to let up from his stubbornness and make a change.

I don't think you can call Koji the "primary" setup guy. It's been noted multiple times this season on-air that Koji isn't much of an option on back-to-back days. I don't like having Gregg as "the" closer more than anyone else, and I'd much rather the O's develop the bullpen mentality that anyone could be called on to close games depending on the match-ups, but the fact is that our bullpen is pretty lousy, no matter how (and with whom) you slice it.

[El Gordo]

Sarcasm noted. I think I would rather have Buck look at these numbers:

2.49 0.88 .179 (Koji)

3.72 1.71 .257 (Gregg)

Not to mention that Koji has a 26:5 K to BB ratio where has Gregg has an appalling 15:15. Gregg's numbers as a closer have been an average at best over his career and with Gregg in the ball game there is always the potential for disaster. This isn't rocket science here. If you want to have a better chance at winning the ball game go with Koji.If you were talking about a set up guy or middle RP those numbers would be relevent. They really aren't for a closer in the face of an 81% save rate.

[The Rick]

Gregg may have gotten the chance to close first because of Koji's uncertain durability, but at this point I think it's been proven and Buck needs to let up from his stubbornness and make a change.

You keep saying this, but I'm not sure it's fair without all of the information.

We don't know what the conversation was between AM & Buck when Gregg was signed to be the team's closer. In the age of FA, it's not good business to sign someone at a position, and then change their role after 19.1 IP. I'm not sure if that's what's playing into this decision or not, but I would imagine it has something to do with it and it probably just needs to run it's course for a little while longer.

I do agree with you. Gregg isn't very good and I think a change will happen soon.

[scOtt]

Soria and Rivera have 3 blown saves too this year. It's the nature of the beast.

[The Rick]

Soria and Rivera have 3 blown saves too this year. It's the nature of the beast.

It's not just about blown saves. His ERA is god awful for a closer, so is his WHIP. He's just not someone who should be in such high leverage situations every time he pitches.

[fishbowlguy]

I may be wrong on this, but obviously Buck is not as "volatile" in his decision making as us internet message board posters are..... Here is the thing about Buck - he is going to give these guys some rope - some will excel, some will hang themselves.... Yeah, gregg is very shaky and walks a tightrope out there, but Buck will have to see more implosions from gregg before he makes the change. As others have said, Koji's arm is just too brittle to be the full time closer. If it gets to the point that gregg needs pulled from the closer's role, I am hoping that Buck alternates Koji and JJ - I know that JJ failed miserably in his brief stint as a closer, but maybe with shared responsibilites, he could thrive.

I think Buck is the type of manager that expects his guys to perform - ie - Andino and his bunting.... if he cant get it down, i think that it will obviously affect how much andino remains in the lineup - Buck seems like the type of manager that if the situation calls for a bunt, he is going to signal it - if the player cant get it done, then buck will not play that player... but he isnt going to overreact and pull someone for one or two screwups - and it was reported that Andino has been told to work vigorously on his bunting.....

[byrdz]

What difference does it make which inning Gregg pitches?
He'll still be pitching as a Oriole the same way he's pitching now.
The way this team plays every inning is high leverage.

[NNYyardbird]

[QUOTE=isestrex;2462090]Sure thing...


Year Tm Lg G SVOpp SV BSv SV% SVSit
2007 FLA NL 74 36 32 4 89% 42
2008 FLA NL 72 38 29 9 76% 43
2009 CHC NL 72 30 23 7 77% 31
2010 TOR AL 63 43 37 6 86% 46
2011 BAL AL 20 11 8 3 73% 11
9 Seasons 426 161 130 31 81% 180

Lg AVG 2011 49 18 11 6 63% 37



I think the League Average portion of this is misleading. I could be wrong but I don't think the league average for 1-inning closers like Gregg is 63%. This may include games that are blown previous to the 9th inning.