Who on this team can be a 3+ WAR player? 2+ WAR?

[Frobby]

I was just spending a little time looking at the 1997 Orioles. You'd be hard pressed to find a more balanced team. They had only one 5+ WAR player (Mussina) and one other 4+ WAR player (Key). But, they had 6 other 3+ WAR players (Erickson, Anderson, Surhoff, Palmeiro, Alomar, Myers) and 5 other 2+ WAR players (Kamienecky, Benitez, Hammond, Hoiles and Rhodes).

This year, the O's are likely to have only two players exceed 3+ WAR -- Wieters (3.0 currently) and Hardy (2.7). Players likely to exceed 2+ WAR are Johnson (2.1 WAR), Guthrie (1.9), Jones (1.8) and Markakis (1.5). (I am excluding Koji, who isn't here anymore.)

So, the 1997 Orioles had 8 3+ WAR players; this team has two. The 1997 had 13 2+ WAR players; this team has 6.

Who on this team is capable of being a 3+ WAR player, who isn't one in 2011? 2+ WAR?

Nick Markakis is one obvious guy who could post 3+ WAR, as he did each of his first 3 big league seasons. He absolutely needs to do this if the Orioles are going to go anywhere.

Adam Jones was a 3.3 WAR player in 2010. He's certainly capable of doing that again. It's his defense that has him down below that now.

The only other offensive player we have capable of putting up 3+ WAR is BRob. Honestly, though, those days are probably over even if he is healthy. We'd be fortunate to get 2+ WAR from him. More likely, he's a 1.5 even if healthy.

Mark Reynolds has been a 2+ WAR player twice. He's actually having his second-best oWAR season this year (2.4) but his defense has been so bad that his overall WAR is a paltry 0.3.

I don't see Reimold or Andino reaching 2+ WAR. Luke Scott was worth 3+ WAR in 2010, but I think we can write him off as a 2+ WAR player, in the unlikely event he is playing for us.

On the pitching side, Guthrie has been a 4+ player for us in his three good seasons, and he still should be a 2+ pitcher for us this year. He's capable of 3+ without a doubt.

Matusz was a 3+ player for us in 2010. No reason he couldn't be that again.

The rest of our staff is where the rubber really meets the road. The 1997 Orioles had three pitchers in their rotation at 3.9 or higher, plus Kamienecki at 2.9; and a bullpen with a 3.5 closer and three set-up guys between 1.8 and 2.4. I have little doubt that Arrieta and Britton can mature into 2+ WAR pitchers; whether they can exceed that is the question. In the pen, JJ is as good or better than any of the 1997 set-up men, but he's alone on an island out there.

The long and short of it is that there are a lot of players on this team who are capable of stepping up, and they need to do it if this team is going anywhere. Realistically, we need to bring in some outside talent, too, but that won't really help unless a lot of our own guys do what it takes to get better.

[Lucky Jim]

I was just spending a little time looking at the 1997 Orioles. You'd be hard pressed to find a more balanced team. They had only one 5+ WAR player (Mussina) and one other 4+ WAR player (Key). But, they had 6 other 3+ WAR players (Erickson, Anderson, Surhoff, Palmeiro, Alomar, Myers) and 5 other 2+ WAR players (Kamienecky, Benitez, Hammond, Hoiles and Rhodes).

This year, the O's are likely to have only two players exceed 3+ WAR -- Wieters (3.0 currently) and Hardy (2.7). Players likely to exceed 2+ WAR are Johnson (2.1 WAR), Guthrie (1.9), Jones (1.8) and Markakis (1.5). (I am excluding Koji, who isn't here anymore.)

So, the 1997 Orioles had 8 3+ WAR players; this team has two. The 1997 had 13 2+ WAR players; this team has 6.

Who on this team is capable of being a 3+ WAR player, who isn't one in 2011? 2+ WAR?

Nick Markakis is one obvious guy who could post 3+ WAR, as he did each of his first 3 big league seasons. He absolutely needs to do this if the Orioles are going to go anywhere.

Adam Jones was a 3.3 WAR player in 2010. He's certainly capable of doing that again. It's his defense that has him down below that now.

The only other offensive player we have capable of putting up 3+ WAR is BRob. Honestly, though, those days are probably over even if he is healthy. We'd be fortunate to get 2+ WAR from him. More likely, he's a 1.5 even if healthy.

Mark Reynolds has been a 2+ WAR player twice. He's actually having his second-best oWAR season this year (2.4) but his defense has been so bad that his overall WAR is a paltry 0.3.

I don't see Reimold or Andino reaching 2+ WAR. Luke Scott was worth 3+ WAR in 2010, but I think we can write him off as a 2+ WAR player, in the unlikely event he is playing for us.

On the pitching side, Guthrie has been a 4+ player for us in his three good seasons, and he still should be a 2+ pitcher for us this year. He's capable of 3+ without a doubt.

Matusz was a 3+ player for us in 2010. No reason he couldn't be that again.

The rest of our staff is where the rubber really meets the road. The 1997 Orioles had three pitchers in their rotation at 3.9 or higher, plus Kamienecki at 2.9; and a bullpen with a 3.5 closer and three set-up guys between 1.8 and 2.4. I have little doubt that Arrieta and Britton can mature into 2+ WAR pitchers; whether they can exceed that is the question. In the pen, JJ is as good or better than any of the 1997 set-up men, but he's alone on an island out there.

The long and short of it is that there are a lot of players on this team who are capable of stepping up, and they need to do it if this team is going anywhere. Realistically, we need to bring in some outside talent, too, but that won't really help unless a lot of our own guys do what it takes to get better.

Interesting, the disparity on Jones. Fangraphs has him at 3.3 WAR already. I know there are different valuations, but still.

[Frobby]

Interesting, the disparity on Jones. Fangraphs has him at 3.3 WAR already. I know there are different valuations, but still.

It's mostly the defense, I think. Personally, I agree with fangraphs on this one. There's no way he was more valuable in 2010 than in 2011, in my opinion.

[Lucky Jim]

It's mostly the defense, I think. Personally, I agree with fangraphs on this one. There's no way he was more valuable in 2010 than in 2011, in my opinion.

I've watched a lot of Jones this year, and his defense has looked better than in the last two years (to me), save for a few errors. I'm not saying I trust my eyes over the metrics. Just noting the disconnect.

[SrMeowMeow]

One of the reasons I'm high on the current club is that I think we have a potential 3+ WAR player at nearly every position. A 3 WAR year from any or all of the following players would not surprise me in the least:

Wieters, Hardy, Reynolds, Markakis, Jones, Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Guthrie. If Roberts is healthy, add him to the list. If Scott is healthy and playing the field, him too.

Not saying I project all those players for 3+ WAR, but they all definitely have the ability. And that just leaves us with holes at 1B, one of LF/DH, and possibly 2B and the other half of LF/DH. A veteran starter would be a nice addition as well. I absolutely think that a few canny (read: realistically modest spending) moves this offseason and a little good fortune has us as a contending team.

[Frobby]

I've watched a lot of Jones this year, and his defense has looked better than in the last two years (to me), save for a few errors. I'm not saying I trust my eyes over the metrics. Just noting the disconnect.

I agree with you. Once every 10-20 games he makes a careless play. Otherwise, to me he's been better than 2009-10 defensively, and certainly he is having his best offensive season by a wide margin.

[Say O!]

The other 5 players (in no particular order): Machado, Schoop, D Bundy, Britton, and next June's first round draft pick.

Yes, that is a ways off. But, 5 of current potential 3+ WAR players (Wieters, Markakis, Jones, Hardy, Matusz) will still be on the roster.

Back of the envelope estimate is that those 10 guys can get you to 80-85 wins...just need the rest of the roster to get another 10.

[El Gordo]

Hope springs eternal after 2 W's in a row. :laughlol:

[NCRaven]

Hope springs eternal after 2 W's in a row. :laughlol:

Starting pitching. One decent and one very good start by Britton and Simon. It makes all the difference in the world. A few more starts like this down the stretch will net us the #4 pick in next year's draft again. :-)

[Oriology]

One of the reasons I'm high on the current club is that I think we have a potential 3+ WAR player at nearly every position. A 3 WAR year from any or all of the following players would not surprise me in the least:

Wieters, Hardy, Reynolds, Markakis, Jones, Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Guthrie. If Roberts is healthy, add him to the list. If Scott is healthy and playing the field, him too.

Not saying I project all those players for 3+ WAR, but they all definitely have the ability. And that just leaves us with holes at 1B, one of LF/DH, and possibly 2B and the other half of LF/DH. A veteran starter would be a nice addition as well. I absolutely think that a few canny (read: realistically modest spending) moves this offseason and a little good fortune has us as a contending team.

I also don't believe this team is as bad as their record indicates, but I think the phrase "It wouldn't surprise me..." is key here. To me, The Orioles do have some solid talent, but really no one who is going to blow you away with a big year (5+ WAR). We need more guys who we think could get 5 WAR and ought to get 3, not guys who have the potential to get 3 WAR (you're never going to have a year when everyone lives up to expectations, and if expectations are decent but not great, you're going to have a team with a decent-but-not-great ceiling). I guess I'm guardedly optimistic about the O's future. I don't think we're a bunch of no-talent losers, but at the same time we are 28 games under .500 and in need of a pretty significant infusion of high-caliber talent IMO. Maybe this is the whole point of this thread anyway, but this is what came to my mind when reading this post and the OP.

[Frobby]

I also don't believe this team is as bad as their record indicates, but I think the phrase "It wouldn't surprise me..." is key here. To me, The Orioles do have some solid talent, but really no one who is going to blow you away with a big year (5+ WAR). We need more guys who we think could get 5 WAR and ought to get 3, not guys who have the potential to get 3 WAR (you're never going to have a year when everyone lives up to expectations, and if expectations are decent but not great, you're going to have a team with a decent-but-not-great ceiling).

That's true. If you look at those '97 Orioles, very few of them had career-best seasons.

I really don't know what the ceiling is on some of our pitchers. And I do feel that somebody who is already here has to play like a no doubt about it all star for this team to go anywhere, no matter who else we bring in.

[UnashamedRiver]

I honestly don't believe you need a star player to win. The Dodgers have Kershaw and Kemp and they aren't going anywhere. A star player is nice, but there is nothing wrong with having an abundance of above average players, but lacking a star 6+ WAR player.

[UnashamedRiver]

Does anywhere else also not like/trust the WAR metric? When evaluating players. I don't really look at WAR. I tend to look at OPS, OBP, ERA, K/9, etc. We don't even know how accurate WAR even is.

[SrMeowMeow]

I also don't believe this team is as bad as their record indicates, but I think the phrase "It wouldn't surprise me..." is key here. To me, The Orioles do have some solid talent, but really no one who is going to blow you away with a big year (5+ WAR). We need more guys who we think could get 5 WAR and ought to get 3, not guys who have the potential to get 3 WAR (you're never going to have a year when everyone lives up to expectations, and if expectations are decent but not great, you're going to have a team with a decent-but-not-great ceiling). I guess I'm guardedly optimistic about the O's future. I don't think we're a bunch of no-talent losers, but at the same time we are 28 games under .500 and in need of a pretty significant infusion of high-caliber talent IMO. Maybe this is the whole point of this thread anyway, but this is what came to my mind when reading this post and the OP.

I agree with a lot of this, and I definitely think it would take some good fortune for us to contend. I think we definitely have potential 5+ WAR players on the roster, though. Wieters, Jones (not convinced yet), Britton, Matusz, probably even Hardy.

[Oriology]

I honestly don't believe you need a star player to win. The Dodgers have Kershaw and Kemp and they aren't going anywhere. A star player is nice, but there is nothing wrong with having an abundance of above average players, but lacking a star 6+ WAR player.

IMO star players are necessary to have a great team, but, yes, they are clearly not sufficient...the Dodgers obviously prove this.

[Frobby]

Does anywhere else also not like/trust the WAR metric? When evaluating players. I don't really look at WAR. I tend to look at OPS, OBP, ERA, K/9, etc. We don't even know how accurate WAR even is.

I do not fully trust it. But it's useful enough for this kind of discussion.

[SrMeowMeow]

I do not fully trust it. But it's useful enough for this kind of discussion.

I feel the same way about you. :angryfire: :hearts: