Would you trade Adam Jones for a number one starter?

[ChaosLex]

Roch asked this in his latest blog entry. What say you?

[nevadaO]

It really depends on who but yes, chances are I would.

[Sports Guy]

I would say this...I would rather have a number 1 starter than Jones.

But I would need to know who the pitcher is, what their contract situation is and what else can I get in trade for Jones and compare that to the #1 starter.

[El Gordo]

Yes regardless, but under the condition that the #1 SP would be under 30 and under control for at least 3 years. The problem is no other team would be willing to do that.

[Chevytrckman3]

Yes regardless, but under the condition that the #1 SP would be under 30 and under control for at least 3 years. The problem is no other team would be willing to do that.

That would most likely take a 3 team type deal. The Orioles aren't that creative. Injury concerns aside, Josh Johnson of the Marlins fits that bill. Signed pretty reasonable.

[SammyBirdland]

Are we talking Luke Hochevar/Livan Hernandez/Fausto Carmona/Wandy Rodriguez or are we talking Tim Lincecum/CC Sabathia/Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee/Felix Hernandez?

[LookitsPuck]

A young #1? Yes. But need to know more info about that particular pitcher, contract situation, etc.

[Frobby]

I wouldn't even blink, if we are talking about a real no. 1 starter, not just some guy who is the best pitcher on a team with lousy pitching.

[Dipper9]

I wouldn't even blink, if we are talking about a real no. 1 starter, not just some guy who is the best pitcher on a team with lousy pitching.

You beat me to it. I voted Yes, but it would have to be a true Ace, not a Guthrie type. (with all due respect to Guts, of course)

[RVAbird]

I would swap Jones for a true ace, under the age of 30, with equal or more service time remaining. I would trade Jones for a good, young, 1/2 type pitcher with 3+ years of service time remaining, but would request a young bat with some upside to be part of the package.

[SrMeowMeow]

I mean, who is it? How many years of team control? How expensive? There is no way to answer meaningfully without knowing that.

[RVAbird]

I also would not demand that pitching be the centerpiece of the deal, FWIW.

[Skeletor]

It would have to be a top 10 in MLB starter kind of thing with a good contract situation. I think the cutoff for me would be Cole Hamels.

[Jimbo81]

It would have to be a top 10 in MLB starter kind of thing with a good contract situation. I think the cutoff for me would be Cole Hamels.

I was just thinking of Hamels. This is the last year of his contract but has an extra arb year for 2012. I would probably trade Jones for Hamels

[Sports Guy]

I also would not demand that pitching be the centerpiece of the deal, FWIW.IYO, do you think its more likely we get a high ceiling bat or a high ceiling pitcher as the centerpiece for Jones?

[RVAbird]

IYO, do you think its more likely we get a high ceiling bat or a high ceiling pitcher as the centerpiece for Jones?

It depends on the organization BAL deals with. For example, if San Diego got serious as a bidder, I wouldn't hesitate to accept a package centered around Blanks/Rizzo.

[Sports Guy]

It depends on the organization BAL deals with. For example, if San Diego got serious as a bidder, I wouldn't hesitate to accept a package centered around Blanks/Rizzo.Would you trade Jones for one of them and Headley?

In that case, we get back 2 good positional prospects but no pitching and only 2 players.

[Jimbo81]

Would you trade Jones for one of them and Headley?

In that case, we get back 2 good positional prospects but no pitching and only 2 players.

Do you think it would take a player like Jones to get Headley? I figured he could be had for mid prospects.

[RVAbird]

Would you trade Jones for one of them and Headley?

In that case, we get back 2 good positional prospects but no pitching and only 2 players.

I think it's possible the Orioles could do better than a straight forward Blanks + Headley deal, but if that were the best package on the table I think I'd accept it. Staying conservative, Headley would give us 3 arbitrated seasons (I believe?) of a 2-3 win player. I think Blanks has all the upside of Adam Jones-type value (even deducting for positional value) and has six cost-controlled seasons remaining.

Swap Jones for those two, sign Crisp, and I think BAL is a few wins better next year and potentially significantly better 2-3 years down the road.

I'm not sure if SD would have interest in giving up Headley, however. Blanks + a top 10 prospect + a lower level guy might be more realistic.

[RVAbird]

Do you think it would take a player like Jones to get Headley? I figured he could be had for mid prospects.

Headley would easily be the secondary piece of the deal, though I do believe he is somewhat underrated.

[Chevytrckman3]

Do you think it would take a player like Jones to get Headley? I figured he could be had for mid prospects.

Matusz + for Headley? Both could use a change of scenery, and isn't Matusz from SD or did he just go to SD state? A change of scenery may be whats best for Matusz at this point. Not sure SD would even entertain that idea though.

[Stotle]

Matusz + for Headley? Both could use a change of scenery, and isn't Matusz from SD or did he just go to SD state? A change of scenery may be whats best for Matusz at this point. Not sure SD would even entertain that idea though.

Guaranty SDN would accept that deal and ship out Headley before the Orioles could even say "and" after Matusz.

I believe Brian grew up in Arizona. He attended USD, not SDSU.

[Jimbo81]

Headley would easily be the secondary piece of the deal, though I do believe he is somewhat underrated.

I absolutely agree he is underrated. I honestly think he could be had for Tillman+.

[RVAbird]

Matusz + for Headley? Both could use a change of scenery, and isn't Matusz from SD or did he just go to SD state? A change of scenery may be whats best for Matusz at this point. Not sure SD would even entertain that idea though.

No offense but I think that is an awful deal. Have people really done a 180 on their Matusz profiles after an injured/poorly-conditioned season? This year was a throw-away season for him. That would be dealing at rock-bottom value.

[Chevytrckman3]

No offense but I think that is an awful deal. Have people really done a 180 on their Matusz profiles after an injured/poorly-conditioned season? This year was a throw-away season for him. That would be dealing at rock-bottom value.


I haven't given up on Matusz at all. I think he will bounce back. I just don't think it will be with the Orioles. I think they've screwed him up too much. He needs to go to a team with coaches that know what they are doing. I'd prefer Reimold or Tillman for Headley. I wouldn't trade Jones to SD, unless Matt Latos was involved honestly.

[El Gordo]

Tillman, Reimold, and Bell for Headley.

[Sports Guy]

Tillman, Reimold, and Bell for Headley.It would be so hard for me to imagine that SD would make that deal but if they would, I would do it in a second.

[Jimbo81]

Tillman, Reimold, and Bell for Headley.

That sounds right, though I hate to let Reimold go.

[Skeletor]

Tillman, Reimold, and Bell for Headley.

Thats equal to Reimold for Headley. Bell and Tillman are non-entities at this point. SD doesn't do that deal.

[El Gordo]

It would be so hard for me to imagine that SD would make that deal but if they would, I would do it in a second. They could use Reimold in the OF, Tillman could do much better in Petco against NL lineups, and Bell could fill the hole at 3B. And they are all cheap. Headley is up for arb. and getting more expensive every year.

[Hank Scorpio]

Crap, voted too quickly.

My actual answer should have been yes, regardless.

[Skeletor]

They could use Reimold in the OF, Tillman could do much better in Petco against NL lineups, and Bell could fill the hole at 3B. And they are all cheap. Headley is up for arb. and getting more expensive every year.

Josh Bell is not a major league third baseman. Even in the NL West.

[CSB Jack]

Just curious, if you had a legitimate #1 starter, would you trade him for Jones? Presumably there is some conditionality to a "Yes" response, so what are those conditions? Exactly what caliber SP are we talking about that could be had for Jones?

[OFFNY]

No offense ...... but I think that is an awful deal. Have people really done a 180 on their Matusz profiles after an injured/poorly-conditioned season? This year was a throw-away season for him. That would be dealing at rock-bottom value.

It'll get better next year. ;)

[CaptainRedbeard]

Would you trade Jones for one of them and Headley?

In that case, we get back 2 good positional prospects but no pitching and only 2 players.

Since the Orioles desperately need a TOR, using their best trade chip to get one (Jones) makes a lot of sense. But they also need to improve the defense, badly, with the best places to upgrade being at CF and 3B. Because of this, I think the Padres are a terrific potential trade partner. They'd value Jones highly because of the hometown factor. They likely want to find some way of getting Heath Bell's contract off the books and would avoid alienating the fan base with a messy divorce by bringing in Jones. I've been kicking around this idea in my head:

Orioles trade: Jones, Reynolds, Tillman
Padres trade: Headley, Maybin, Bell

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the Orioles can trade for Bell, offer him arbitration, and get the picks. He probably will want to be a free agent if his choice is accepting and becoming an Orioles. He's a great player, but his trade value to the Padres is zilch because everybody knows they don't want to offer arbitration and risk getting stuck handing him a fat paycheck. Worst case scenario, he decides he does want to play for the Orioles, we have an awesome closer for a year, and get the picks later.

The trade looks lopsided in terms of the quality of players, but take out Bell for the reasons explained above and it's pretty even. Maybin had a really good season and has the prospect pedigree, but maybe the Padres want to sell high on him. They did pick him up for scraps last offseason, and Jones will likely still be in CF for them anyway. Reynolds is a power bat (which they desperately need) that they can stick at either corner, or trade him if they figure he's too pricey. That's the one thing I'd worry about- if the Padres are motivated by salary relief, they're not getting any by picking up Reynolds. He is, however, only under contract for one more year, whereas Bell wants a multi-year deal.

In terms of evening out the deal, Tillman just makes a ton of sense as a former top prospect, flyball pitcher, change-of-scenery guy in Petco. It's hard to give up Jones and Reynolds and get no pitchers in return, but I don't know enough about the Padres minor leaguers to say which ones I would want. Blanks is an obvious, eternal OH target, who would be nice to pick up.

[Chevytrckman3]

Since the Orioles desperately need a TOR, using their best trade chip to get one (Jones) makes a lot of sense. But they also need to improve the defense, badly, with the best places to upgrade being at CF and 3B. Because of this, I think the Padres are a terrific potential trade partner. They'd value Jones highly because of the hometown factor. They likely want to find some way of getting Heath Bell's contract off the books and would avoid alienating the fan base with a messy divorce by bringing in Jones. I've been kicking around this idea in my head:

Orioles trade: Jones, Reynolds, Tillman
Padres trade: Headley, Maybin, Bell

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the Orioles can trade for Bell, offer him arbitration, and get the picks. He probably will want to be a free agent if his choice is accepting and becoming an Orioles. He's a great player, but his trade value to the Padres is zilch because everybody knows they don't want to offer arbitration and risk getting stuck handing him a fat paycheck. Worst case scenario, he decides he does want to play for the Orioles, we have an awesome closer for a year, and get the picks later.

The trade looks lopsided in terms of the quality of players, but take out Bell for the reasons explained above and it's pretty even. Maybin had a really good season and has the prospect pedigree, but maybe the Padres want to sell high on him. They did pick him up for scraps last offseason, and Jones will likely still be in CF for them anyway. Reynolds is a power bat (which they desperately need) that they can stick at either corner, or trade him if they figure he's too pricey. That's the one thing I'd worry about- if the Padres are motivated by salary relief, they're not getting any by picking up Reynolds. He is, however, only under contract for one more year, whereas Bell wants a multi-year deal.

In terms of evening out the deal, Tillman just makes a ton of sense as a former top prospect, flyball pitcher, change-of-scenery guy in Petco. It's hard to give up Jones and Reynolds and get no pitchers in return, but I don't know enough about the Padres minor leaguers to say which ones I would want. Blanks is an obvious, eternal OH target, who would be nice to pick up.

What if Bell decided to accept? Just to throw that out there. And, i'm sure the Padres have a feel for if Bell will accept or not. In that case, they would just offer him arb. and take the picks themselves. Otherwise, we gave up 2 of our best hitters and trade chips, for Maybin and Headley, and an expensive closer that will be of no use to us, cause we wont hit or pitch good enough to worry about saves. Honestly, I wouldn't trade Jones alone for Maybin and Headley. If we're talking a trade with Padres, I want it centered around Latos.

I'd offer Jones, Matusz, and Tillman for Latos, Blanks, and Headley

[TGO]

I was just thinking of Hamels. This is the last year of his contract but has an extra arb year for 2012. I would probably trade Jones for Hamels

Hamels does have an arb year for 2012 but that's it. Jones has one for 2013. It's the same situation you'd have with Matt Cain, except Cain already has a contract for 2012 (at $15MM).

[CaptainRedbeard]

What if Bell decided to accept? Just to throw that out there. And, i'm sure the Padres have a feel for if Bell will accept or not. In that case, they would just offer him arb. and take the picks themselves. Otherwise, we gave up 2 of our best hitters and trade chips, for Maybin and Headley, and an expensive closer that will be of no use to us, cause we wont hit or pitch good enough to worry about saves. Honestly, I wouldn't trade Jones alone for Maybin and Headley. If we're talking a trade with Padres, I want it centered around Latos.

I'd offer Jones, Matusz, and Tillman for Latos, Blanks, and Headley

Latos would be a great pickup, but I doubt the Padres would part with him easily. He's only got two years of service time, I believe, and was fantastic his first full season and still pretty darn good last year. I doubt they'd do that package you mentioned, even with the inclusion of Matusz, although it's probably not too far off. If they were up for it though, I'd probably jump on that.

I highly doubt the Padres offer Heath Bell arbitration unless they intend on retaining him and paying him a 10mil+ salary, which is like a quarter of their team payroll. From his perspective he has very little to lose by accepting arbitration if his intention is to stay with the Padres. Either he's going to get a 1/10 contract or a multi-year contract and stay on the team. At worst, he ends up a free agent in one year anyway, even if the Padres trade him.

If the Padres are intent on getting value from him and not paying him, they can either trade him in a trade like this (for the picks), or let him accept arbitration and trade him. With the market flooded with closers this offseason, Bell after accepting arbitration on a 1/10 contract is likely worth close to the same as two compensation picks anyway.

I also doubt Bell would accept arbitration with the Orioles. His preferences probably are: 1) playing for the Padres, 2) becoming a free agent, 83752957) playing for the Orioles. But if for some crazy reason he does, then we have Heath Bell for a year, which is far from the worst thing in the world. We can trade him at the deadline or let him walk next year for picks.

Jones/Reynolds/Tillman for Maybin/Headley/Bell is sort of the foundation anyway. I'd look for Blanks and/or minor league pitchers to be included as well. Maybe take Reynolds out as well, but the big pieces I'd love to pick up are Maybin and Headley to vastly improve our defense.

[TGO]

What if Bell decided to accept? Just to throw that out there. And, i'm sure the Padres have a feel for if Bell will accept or not. In that case, they would just offer him arb. and take the picks themselves. Otherwise, we gave up 2 of our best hitters and trade chips, for Maybin and Headley, and an expensive closer that will be of no use to us, cause we wont hit or pitch good enough to worry about saves. Honestly, I wouldn't trade Jones alone for Maybin and Headley. If we're talking a trade with Padres, I want it centered around Latos.

I'd offer Jones, Matusz, and Tillman for Latos, Blanks, and Headley

What's the problem with Bell accepting arbitration? I'm sure the Padres would rather have picks but getting a 34-year-old closer on a one year deal, with the opportunity to put him on the trade market one more time during the season, is a pretty great fallback plan. Does he have an injury I don't know about?

[CaptainRedbeard]

What's the problem with Bell accepting arbitration? I'm sure the Padres would rather have picks but getting a 34-year-old closer on a one year deal, with the opportunity to put him on the trade market one more time during the season, is a pretty great fallback plan. Does he have an injury I don't know about?

For the Orioles, there's no big problem with Bell accepting arbitration. For the Padres, with a 45 mil payroll last year, it doesn't make sense to sink 10 of that into a closer. Because he'll never decline arbitration from them, the only way to squeeze the last bit of value out of him is to trade him. His trade value is just going to keep decreasing the longer they hold onto him, and they'll have to pay him a good chunk of his contract if they want to wait until the deadline.

This whole premise doesn't work if Bell decides he'd rather be a free agent, but from what I've read he really wants to stay in SD.

[CaptainRedbeard]

This an article that I read a while back really makes me think the Padres are desperate for some way to find a creative resolution to the Heath Bell situation:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/lee_jenkins/08/31/heath.bell.andre.ethier/index.html


In the visiting clubhouse is Padres closer Heath Bell, who has repeatedly told the front office that he will sign a discounted long-term contract, and may even forgo free agency and accept arbitration to remain with the team for another season. The Padres are desperate for Bell to decline arbitration and become a free agent so they don't have to pay him and so they can reap two draft choices as compensation, but Bell said Tuesday he is leaning toward staying put.


Bell understands why the Padres have not offered him a lucrative contract and hope he declines arbitration. They cannot carry a 33-year-old closer who takes up more than a quarter of their payroll.

[Chevytrckman3]

This an article that I read a while back really makes me think the Padres are desperate for some way to find a creative resolution to the Heath Bell situation:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/lee_jenkins/08/31/heath.bell.andre.ethier/index.html

That seems like a chance for the Orioles to get more for less. Keep Jones out of the equation. Tell the Padres, you give us Headley for a lesser trade chip, and we will take Bell's contract.

Something like Tillman and Bell (Throw in) for Headley and Bell.

[GoGoPower]

Am I the only person who really likes Cory Luebke? I'd trade Jones for a package like Luebke & Blanks and an interesting prospect, or Jones & Tillman for Luebke, Castro, & Guzman.

[GoGoPower]

That seems like a chance for the Orioles to get more for less. Keep Jones out of the equation. Tell the Padres, you give us Headley for a lesser trade chip, and we will take Bell's contract.

Something like Tillman and Bell (Throw in) for Headley and Bell.

Interesting. Which member of the Padres are you planning on kidnapping to make them say yes to this trade? :p

[TGO]

I know SG has brought up Gavin Floyd pretty frequently as a target in various deals but here's a White Sox idea: would you trade Jones in a deal for John Danks? Though he's not quite an "ace" he would be our best starter. Like a lot of the other guys mentioned (Cain, Hamels) he is a FA after 2012.

What about Jones for Danks, Brent Morel (a defense-first 3B), and Addison Reed (power righty RP)?

[TGO]

One more, say the Rangers sign Wilson, would you trade Jones for Holland or Harrison?

[OriolesMagic83]

I would trade Jones for an ace. Someone who is a perrenial contender for a Cy Young award or just someone who is mentioned in the discussion of "best pitchers in AL/NL". No team in their right mind would trade an ace for Jones though. Someone mentioned Hamels. I think he would be a good target. He's a very solid #2 type pitcher, maybe #4 on the Phillies. He would be a no doubt ace here. Someone like a Greinke (before he was traded)

[OriolesMagic83]

The Giants are a very good target, How about trading Jones plus Roberts for Zito and Cain and cash. The Giants would only consider this trade if Roberts can prove he's healthy. The O's are picking up some extra salary, but Cain would be the O's best consistent pitcher since Mussina (Bedard had one great year)

Zito has mostly been a decent #4 starter, except he's been paid like an ace. Sign Cain to a long term, back loaded deal. Zito takes the place of the middle of the rotation guy the O's sign every year for $6-10 mill. Millwood, Benson, etc

[The Maestro]

I voted yes, but obviously there would be conditions to making such a deal. The number 1 would have to be 30 or under and be willing to extend once he got here. Just curious who people would be willing to move Jones for. Hamels? Cain? Josh Johnson? Latos? Jurrjens? Cueto?