Roch: Looking at the odds of who lands Fielder

[ChaosLex]

Bodog posted odds on which team will sign first baseman Prince Fielder this winter. The Orioles made the list, which reads as follows:

Chicago Cubs 3/1
Washington Nationals 5/1
Toronto Blue Jays 5/1
Baltimore Orioles 5/1
Seattle Mariners 5/1
Milwaukee Brewers 11/2
Texas Rangers 7/1
St. Louis Cardinals 15/2


The Orioles have been linked to Fielder since the beginning of the 2011 season, at least by certain members of the national media. They reason that the club has payroll flexibility - part of the Andy MacPhail legacy - and a dire need for a big bat in the middle of the order. They also have a first baseman, Mark Reynolds, who can move back to third base.

A new president of baseball operations, coupled with manager Buck Showalter's aggressive nature, means that the Orioles will make a serious run at Fielder.

I'm still not buying it, but that's the logic.


He's a big bat. Well, he's just plain big, but he's played in 162, 161, 162, 159, 158 and 157 games in his six full seasons in the majors. He'd put more butts in the seats. And he'd give the Orioles the type of imposing, feared presence in their lineup that their division rivals trot out on a nightly basis.

Yeah, I want him, but I don't expect him to come here. I don't expect the Orioles to outbid the rest of the field. I just don't see it happening.

I've heard the argument that the Orioles will get as much, or nearly as much, production from Reynolds that they would get from Fielder, and at a fraction of the cost. Reynolds is signed through 2012 with a club option in 2013 worth $11 million (with a $500,000 buyout.)

Fielder hit .299/.415/.566 with 36 doubles, 38 homers, 120 RBIs, 107 walks and 95 runs scored. He struck out 106 times, committed 15 errors and didn't eat meat.

Pretty much a typical season for Fielder.

Reynolds hit .221/.323/.483 with 27 doubles, 37 homers, 86 RBIs, 75 walks and 84 runs scored. He struck out 196 times, committed 31 errors - 26 at third base - and ordered at least one meat-lovers pizza.

Fielder committed four errors last season and seven in 2009. That's not bad for a guy who looks like he should be playing nose tackle in a 3-4 defense.

If nothing else, I hope the Orioles make a legitimate run at Fielder. Don't lowball him with an opening proposal and wait for agent Scott Boras to call back with a counter offer. Be aggressive. And be prepared to keep Reynolds at first base.

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/10/should-the-orioles-wait-for-their-prince-fielder-to-come.html

[TonySoprano]

Fielder Watch II

Is Roch trying to lower expectations as well?

[Sanfran327]

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=so+you%27re+telling+me+there%27s+a+chance&hl=en&sa=X&biw=1920&bih=976&tbm=isch&prmd=imvns&tbnid=E8DA7bImGS55JM:&imgrefurl=http://www.ocdqblog.com/home/the-dumb-and-dumber-guide-to-data-quality.html&docid=IDWx1KUL-oHPaM&imgurl=http://www.ocdqblog.com/resource/WindowsLiveWriter-TheDumbandDumberGuidetoDataQuality_D66B-%253FfileId%253D5549546&w=857&h=637&ei=6QygTpyOK8X20gH4xuDYBA&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=140&sig=107428335788524903686&page=1&tbnh=117&tbnw=160&start=0&ndsp=68&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0&tx=73&ty=59

So you're telling me there's a chance!

[ccbird]

PFFT.....5/1 odds


I'll happily book anybody at 50/1 :thumbsup1:

[Enjoy Terror]

I'd happily jump around like a monkey and throw my feces if we acquire Prince, but the Orioles needs to seriously consider fixing their pitching first and foremost.

I'll pencil in Britton, Guthrie, Patton, Johnson, Gregg, and Strop, but the O's should be very concerned about Arrieta and Matusz, whether Berken and Bergesen should return and whether Simon and Hunter are starters.

What are the chances they retain Scott and stick him at first base, and would you be surprised?

[Can_of_corn]

I'd happily jump around like a monkey and throw my feces if we acquire Prince, but the Orioles needs to seriously consider fixing their pitching first and foremost.

I'll pencil in Britton, Guthrie, Patton, Johnson, Gregg, and Strop, but the O's should be very concerned about Arrieta and Matusz, whether Berken and Bergesen should return and whether Simon and Hunter are starters.

What are the chances they retain Scott and stick him at first base, and would you be surprised?

I will be surprised since I think the O's will non-tender him and I don't think the O's would win the bidding on a newly free agent Scott.

[Sports Guy]

Fielder Watch II

Is Roch trying to lower expectations as well?Of course..Damn local writers! LOL

BTW, when Roch posts his opinion on stuff, he has an idea from his sources about what is going on.

So, reading between the lines here, this is what I would assume.....

The Orioles will make an offer to Fielder. They will try to sign him. But they have their limit and the limit is likely at the point where it will easily be beaten. If the market for him is supressed, then the Orioles have a chance.

If the market for him goes crazy like it did for Tex, the Orioles have no chance.

[.500_OR_BETTER]

I'd happily jump around like a monkey and throw my feces if we acquire Prince, but the Orioles needs to seriously consider fixing their pitching first and foremost.

I'll pencil in Britton, Guthrie, Patton, Johnson, Gregg, and Strop, but the O's should be very concerned about Arrieta and Matusz, whether Berken and Bergesen should return and whether Simon and Hunter are starters.

What are the chances they retain Scott and stick him at first base, and would you be surprised?

I say its time to move on and trade Scott and Guthrie if possible. (If they resign them)

A big concern is that we have no future prospects... Muchado and Bundy are both 2+ years from making it up to the MLB level.

Possible 2012 starting rotation: [no specific order] Johnson, Britton, Simon, Hunter, Arrieta. Berken and Begry [bullpen] Matusz [AAA]

Although the pitching can be shaky, I would hope the O's sign at least one big FA SP or Prince.

[OrangeJerseys]

Fix the pitching.


Sent from my iPhone 4S using Tapatalk.

[Frobby]

He's a big bat. Well, he's just plain big, but he's played in 162, 161, 162, 159, 158 and 157 games in his six full seasons in the majors. He'd put more butts in the seats.

I heartily disagree that Fielder is going to put more butts in the seats, at least not directly. Winning puts more butts in the seats, individual players rarely do. Fielder is a very good hitter, but I have a hard time believing people are going to decide to go to more games because he's on the team.

I do think adding Fielder would do a lot for our offense. We lack a true cleanup hitter, and he certainly is one. I think it would help the other hitters to have a presence like Fielder in the middle of the order. I think last year's offense, even though improved by 95 runs from 2010, has room to get better, and adding Fielder might cause an increase in runs that is greater than Fielder's own direct contribution. Add Fielder and another 95-run improvement would not surprise me.

You are going to give some of that back on defense if Reynolds is back at 3B and Fielder is at 1B.

I am not adverse to going hard after Fielder, we just have to be careful if the bidding starts to spiral out of control. And, we need to leave some money for pitching.

[csgordos]

I say its time to move on and trade Scott and Guthrie if possible. (If they resign them)

A big concern is that we have no future prospects... Muchado and Bundy are both 2+ years from making it up to the MLB level.

Possible 2012 starting rotation: [no specific order] Johnson, Britton, Simon, Hunter, Arrieta. Berken and Begry [bullpen] Matusz [AAA]

Although the pitching can be shaky, I would hope the O's sign at least one big FA SP or Prince.

Following the Orioles the past 30+ years and observing Buck's 15+ years in baseball I see the rotation (depending on trades by the new GM):

Guthrie (if traded another veteran like Guthrie), FA veteran pitcher (no ideas), Hunter, Matusz, Britton. That is not in a particular order.
Arrieta is coming off surgery and I hope they learn from Matusz last year and make sure he is really ready. Bergesen if he makes the team will be in the bullpen and I think he can be effective. Berken will probably end up having surgery, otherwise will be in the bullpen. Johnson and Stop will be in the bullpen. Simon will be the 6th starter who hopefully will be the long man as the top 5 will earn their spots in the rotation. Otherwise I believe he will be the 5th starter. I am not getting my hopes up this year like I have numerous times in the past. We have no depth in the high minors so any help will come from outside the organization. Your guess is as good as mine. I believe they should trade Adam Jones and get back 2-3 guys who could contribute as starters (pitchers) by the middle or end of the year, then and only then will I get excited about the Orioles chances.

[JohnnyK27]

I heartily disagree that Fielder is going to put more butts in the seats, at least not directly. Winning puts more butts in the seats, individual players rarely do. Fielder is a very good hitter, but I have a hard time believing people are going to decide to go to more games because he's on the team.I do think adding Fielder would do a lot for our offense. We lack a true cleanup hitter, and he certainly is one. I think it would help the other hitters to have a presence like Fielder in the middle of the order. I think last year's offense, even though improved by 95 runs from 2010, has room to get better, and adding Fielder might cause an increase in runs that is greater than Fielder's own direct contribution. Add Fielder and another 95-run improvement would not surprise me.

You are going to give some of that back on defense if Reynolds is back at 3B and Fielder is at 1B.

I am not adverse to going hard after Fielder, we just have to be careful if the bidding starts to spiral out of control. And, we need to leave some money for pitching.

Personally if the Orioles added Fielder and Darvish I'd end my boycott of the stadium thats been ongoing since the late 90's

[Jimbo81]

I heartily disagree that Fielder is going to put more butts in the seats, at least not directly. Winning puts more butts in the seats, individual players rarely do. Fielder is a very good hitter, but I have a hard time believing people are going to decide to go to more games because he's on the team.

I do think adding Fielder would do a lot for our offense. We lack a true cleanup hitter, and he certainly is one. I think it would help the other hitters to have a presence like Fielder in the middle of the order. I think last year's offense, even though improved by 95 runs from 2010, has room to get better, and adding Fielder might cause an increase in runs that is greater than Fielder's own direct contribution. Add Fielder and another 95-run improvement would not surprise me.

You are going to give some of that back on defense if Reynolds is back at 3B and Fielder is at 1B.

I am not adverse to going hard after Fielder, we just have to be careful if the bidding starts to spiral out of control. And, we need to leave some money for pitching.

I have had this conversation with a few friends that are not baseball nuts like us. The funny thing is they all said if we got Prince they would go to more games. It's not about the winning for them when it comes to Fielder, it's the Wow factor first. The fact that at anytime during a game he could absolutly destroy a ball and put it through a warehouse window is more intruging to these guys (I think they're crazy but whatever).

My point is sometimes winning isn't everything at first. Sometimes you gotta start with an attraction and then try winning...

...wow that sounds dumb ;)

[Frobby]

I have had this conversation with a few friends that are not baseball nuts like us. The funny thing is they all said if we got Prince they would go to more games. It's not about the winning for them when it comes to Fielder, it's the Wow factor first. The fact that at anytime during a game he could absolutly destroy a ball and put it through a warehouse window is more intruging to these guys (I think they're crazy but whatever).

My point is sometimes winning isn't everything at first. Sometimes you gotta start with an attraction and then try winning...

...wow that sounds dumb ;)

Fielder has a few more homers than Mark Reynolds over the last 4 years, 150-141. Reynolds is just about as likely to destroy a ball as Fielder is. And it's not like the rest of the Orioles didn't hit any homers this year, either.

I guess I overstated things to say that Fielder wouldn't put any butts in the seats. I just think that the vast majority of the fans want to see a winning team, not a guy who hits homers.

[Sports Guy]

Fielder has a few more homers than Mark Reynolds over the last 4 years, 150-141. Reynolds is just about as likely to destroy a ball as Fielder is. And it's not like the rest of the Orioles didn't hit any homers this year, either.

I guess I overstated things to say that Fielder wouldn't put any butts in the seats. I just think that the vast majority of the fans want to see a winning team, not a guy who hits homers.What will happen if they sign Fielder will be an uptick in some season ticket sales but it won't be that big of a difference to where it will really matter. If the Orioles have a good product on the field in 2012, win around 80 or so games and then have another good offseason next year, that's when you will see the amount of tickets sold really jump.

[MikeAD]

Personally if the Orioles added Fielder and Darvish I'd end my boycott of the stadium thats been ongoing since the late 90's

My reaction would be the opposite. If they bring in Fielder I will be pretty unhappy. Unless the off chance happens where they bring in a handful of player, actually draft well, and pour money into the developmental side of the organization. Then I'd be ok with it....

[backwardsk]

I'm wondering what the odds would be on the field. If it's more of a longshot than st Louis, then I'd want that action.

[JohnD]

Seems like a reasonable article by Roch. Pretty much sums up exactly how I feel about it all.

[xKHx]

My reaction would be the opposite. If they bring in Fielder I will be pretty unhappy. Unless the off chance happens where they bring in a handful of player, actually draft well, and pour money into the developmental side of the organization. Then I'd be ok with it....

If the did this I would end my October boycott of not going to any O's games.

Last series of the season was awesome if you can't go and enjoy something like that then I don't know what to say.

[JTrea81]

Signing Fielder is a statement that Orioles are serious about winning. When they commit to that type of contract, they have to win. So far they've maintained payroll flexibility but there's been no pressure to win as a result. Fielder would change that.

[MikeAD]

If the did this I would end my October boycott of not going to any O's games.

Last series of the season was awesome if you can't go and enjoy something like that then I don't know what to say.

Well I mean, I go to the games whenever I can, regardless. I enjoy the team no matter how bad they stink. I wish they were good, obviously. I think throwing some money at the top is a really stupid idea, however. We have chance after chance to improve the team overall and we do the wrong thing. This would be the epitome of that. Ignore our glaring organizational shortcomings and bring in one guy so we can continue to be in fifth place. Yay.

[MikeAD]

Signing Fielder is a statement that Orioles are serious about winning. When they commit to that type of contract, they have to win. So far they've maintained payroll flexibility but there's been no pressure to win as a result. Fielder would change that.

It just flat out isn't. It means they have addressed first base and that is it.

[Can_of_corn]

Signing Fielder is a statement that Orioles are serious about winning. When they commit to that type of contract, they have to win. So far they've maintained payroll flexibility but there's been no pressure to win as a result. Fielder would change that.

How do you explain the season after the Tejada signing then?

[El Gordo]

Of course..Damn local writers! LOL

BTW, when Roch posts his opinion on stuff, he has an idea from his sources about what is going on.

So, reading between the lines here, this is what I would assume.....

The Orioles will make an offer to Fielder. They will try to sign him. But they have their limit and the limit is likely at the point where it will easily be beaten. If the market for him is supressed, then the Orioles have a chance.

If the market for him goes crazy like it did for Tex, the Orioles have no chance.I'd like to know his sources for this idea: "Fielder will probably end up as a designated hitter in New York or Boston".
But I agree that they will set a limit, something in the neighborhood of the Tex offer and see if the market comes near it. I think the market will hover around 5/125 well into Jan. and then one club will up the anti.

[xKHx]

Well I mean, I go to the games whenever I can, regardless. I enjoy the team no matter how bad they stink. I wish they were good, obviously. I think throwing some money at the top is a really stupid idea, however. We have chance after chance to improve the team overall and we do the wrong thing. This would be the epitome of that. Ignore our glaring organizational shortcomings and bring in one guy so we can continue to be in fifth place. Yay.
Ohh my bad I thought you were in agreement with Johnnyk27 about the banning of going to games....... Then I should have quoted him instead :)

[Sports Guy]

I'd like to know his sources for this idea: "Fielder will probably end up as a designated hitter in New York or Boston".But I agree that they will set a limit, something in the neighborhood of the Tex offer and see if the market comes near it. I think the market will hover around 5/125 well into Jan. and then one club will up the anti.That's probably a joke but I don't think I would rule it out, particularly in Boston.

[Araqnid]

Signing Fielder is a statement that Orioles are serious about winning. When they commit to that type of contract, they have to win. So far they've maintained payroll flexibility but there's been no pressure to win as a result. Fielder would change that.

Being serious about winning is very different than winning.

This signing does not guarantee a winning team, just that we have a team with a slightly-pudgy-yet-defensively-solid 1B and a starting rotation that can't pitch it's way out of a paper bag.

If this signing were to happen in addition to the tons of necessary improvements in the farm system, scouting, etc., as well as shoring up the far more important black hole of starting pitching, then yes, this would be awesome. But likely, one will have to come at the expense of the other (regardless of whether you or I or anyone thinks that's fair), and I for one would rather have the system capable of producing the next Prince Fielder than getting a few of his remaining good years.

[Jimbo81]

That's probably a joke but I don't think I would rule it out, particularly in Boston.

According to Cots http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/boston-red-sox.html

Players leaving

JD Drew-14mm
David Ortiz- 12.5
Papelbon- 12mm
Plus a bunch of other contracts for 1-2 mm

That's a whole lot of money and a DH spot wide open. You know they are pissed too...we'll see

[Sports Guy]

According to Cots http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/boston-red-sox.html

Players leaving

JD Drew-14mm
David Ortiz- 12.5
Papelbon- 12mm
Plus a bunch of other contracts for 1-2 mm

That's a whole lot of money and a DH spot wide open. You know they are pissed too...we'll seeAnd Fielder is the type of clubhouse guy that team may feel they need.

On top of that, they could also trade Youkilis and one of Lackey or Beckett...More money off the books.

[Jimbo81]

And Fielder is the type of clubhouse guy that team may feel they need.

On top of that, they could also trade Youkilis and one of Lackey or Beckett...More money off the books.

And he can grow his bread as bushy as he wants in Boston ;)

Point taken on the clubhouse guy thing. They will want a leader and once poppi is out I don't think anyone will take his mantle who is currently on the team.

[Sports Guy]

And he can grow his bread as bushy as he wants in Boston ;)

Point taken on the clubhouse guy thing. They will want a leader and once poppi is out I don't think anyone will take his mantle who is currently on the team.Plus, you don't have to worry about Prince tearing up a bucket of KFC in the 4th inning!

[Ooooooohhhh!!!!]

I guess I overstated things to say that Fielder wouldn't put any butts in the seats. I just think that the vast majority of the fans want to see a winning team, not a guy who hits homers.

I agree with you on this. Fielder would draw some fans for the first few weeks of the season, but that novelty would wear off quickly if we started losing again.

I think where Fielder would help is if we started winning. His presence would add a legitimacy to our wins. I think right now even if the O's get off to a strong first month most fans will be expecting a collapse. It would keep people from coming to the Yard. With a guy like Fielder in the middle of the lineup the fans might feel like the team has turned a corner. It's just a guess on my part, but if we were to start winning I think you'd see a bigger spike in attendance with Prince here than without.

I think you'd hear people say, "Prince has turned this team around. I think we're for real."

[Sports Guy]

Signing Fielder is a statement that Orioles are serious about winning. When they commit to that type of contract, they have to win. So far they've maintained payroll flexibility but there's been no pressure to win as a result. Fielder would change that.Putting a big bandaid over a severe gun shot wound doesn't heal the wound.

[El Gordo]

Boston's recent FO behavior doesn't reflect sanity, but if they were sane they would be looking to trade Lacky, bat Youkalis DH, sign a FA SP or two, a RF, and find a 3B. I don't see them signing Fielder unless his market has collapsed.

[Frobby]

I agree with you on this. Fielder would draw some fans for the first few weeks of the season, but that novelty would wear off quickly if we started losing again.

I think where Fielder would help is if we started winning. His presence would add a legitimacy to our wins. I think right now even if the O's get off to a strong first month most fans will be expecting a collapse. It would keep people from coming to the Yard. With a guy like Fielder in the middle of the lineup the fans might feel like the team has turned a corner. It's just a guess on my part, but if we were to start winning I think you'd see a bigger spike in attendance with Prince here than without.

I think you'd hear people say, "Prince has turned this team around. I think we're for real."

I think if the Orioles were playing close to .600 ball in mid-June when school let out, you'd start getting a bigger walk-up crowd at games. Any time short of that, people won't take it very seriously. And if they were playing .600ish ball in mid-June, I think people would get interested with or without Fielder. Obviously, a lot of players would have to be performing well for that to happen.

[Sports Guy]

Boston's recent FO behavior doesn't reflect sanity, but if they were sane they would be looking to trade Lacky, bat Youkalis DH, sign a FA SP or two, a RF, and find a 3B. I don't see them signing Fielder unless his market has collapsed.No need to take Youk off of third. His defense is fine over there.

[TonySoprano]

The Orioles definitely want to increase walk-up sales. That's why they raised the prices on those tickets. ;)

[Fan4Life]

Roch needs to calculate the odds of upgrading the pitching.

[Frobby]

The Orioles definitely want to increase revenues on walk-up sales. That's why they raised the prices on those tickets. ;)

Fixed that for ya!

[TonySoprano]

Fixed that for ya!bada bing. You got it.

Simple econ 101, if you raise the price of something demand falls. I guess they were asleep the day they taught that. :D

[weams]

Fielder Watch II

Is Roch trying to lower expectations as well?

Wait a minute Soprano, are you saying that Roch WORKS for Peter Angelos?

[TonySoprano]

Wait a minute Soprano, are you saying that Roch WORKS for Peter Angelos?He is at least in collusion with Dan Connolly.

It's a conspiracy!
That's what this is!
It's one big damn conspiracy!
And everyone's in on it!
Including her!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_fM1lOertB_c/TI0fjqD1NEI/AAAAAAAAAHs/_2nFVAuxjfA/s1600/raquel_welch.jpg:D

[El Gordo]

No need to take Youk off of third. His defense is fine over there.His hip issues may disagree.