Stark talks about the contracts for Fielder and Pujols

[Sports Guy]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings111110/exploring-market-free-agents-albert-pujols-prince-fielder

Looks like Jtrea's Fielder contract could work although Trea wants to defer some money, that ain't happening.

[Brendan25]

I don't think that Fielder is going to be awfully expensive, especially since teams are going to be limited. Fielder is not going to draw as much interest as he is hoping to get. Still probably too much for the O's.

[CA-ORIOLE]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings111110/exploring-market-free-agents-albert-pujols-prince-fielder

Looks like Jtrea's Fielder contract could work although Trea wants to defer some money, that ain't happening.

Taking into account the fat tax, I think Fielder will be close to 7/140. Trea's 7/175 should easily land him though ... even in Oriole dollars.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think that Fielder is going to be awfully expensive, especially since teams are going to be limited. Fielder is not going to draw as much interest as he is hoping to get. Still probably too much for the O's.People keep saying this but I don't see how they could think it.

[Brendan25]

People keep saying this but I don't see how they could think it.

I think the Cubs are going to shy away because of Epsteins bad signings in his free agency (Lackey, Dice-K, even Scutaro). The Nationals could be interested but they have Morse and LaRoche, The Marlins could be interested but do they really have the money to throw at all of these players? The Brewers can't afford it. The Dodgers have said they can't sign free agents until they sell. The Rangers are going after pitching, not Fielder. I think that the three teams to watch the most are the Mets, the Angels, and the Orioles. I don't think the O's have eliminated themselves, but will see what the market does.

[square634]

That executive talking about front-loading the Pujols contract can't possibly understand the time-value of money, right?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think the Cubs are going to shy away because of Epsteins bad signings in his free agency (Lackey, Dice-K, even Scutaro). The Nationals could be interested but they have Morse and LaRoche, The Marlins could be interested but do they really have the money to throw at all of these players? The Brewers can't afford it. The Dodgers have said they can't sign free agents until they sell. The Rangers are going after pitching, not Fielder. I think that the three teams to watch the most are the Mets, the Angels, and the Orioles. I don't think the O's have eliminated themselves, but will see what the market does.

Scutaro hasn't been a bad signing.

[Sports Guy]

I think the Cubs are going to shy away because of Epsteins bad signings in his free agency (Lackey, Dice-K, even Scutaro). The Nationals could be interested but they have Morse and LaRoche, The Marlins could be interested but do they really have the money to throw at all of these players? The Brewers can't afford it. The Dodgers have said they can't sign free agents until they sell. The Rangers are going after pitching, not Fielder. I think that the three teams to watch the most are the Mets, the Angels, and the Orioles. I don't think the O's have eliminated themselves, but will see what the market does.The Rangers have money to go after whatever they want.

Giants, Sea, Rangers, Nats, Angels and Florida/Miami...to name a few.

They could all be in on him.

There is always a surprise team as well.

[DrungoHazewood]

Taking into account the fat tax, I think Fielder will be close to 7/140. Trea's 7/175 should easily land him though ... even in Oriole dollars.

You would hope so, since you'd be paying for 5.5 wins a year (not factoring in any inflation of the cost of wins) for the next seven years, for a player who's averaged 4.0 wins a year over the last four years. $175M is roughly the cost of 30-35 wins (or as much as 39 given today's rate of about $4.5M/win) , and Fielder has been worth about 20 so far in the 6+ years of his career.

[Frobby]

That executive talking about front-loading the Pujols contract can't possibly understand the time-value of money, right?

It used to mean more when interest rates were higher than 0.01%.

[square634]

It used to mean more when interest rates were higher than 0.01%.

Still the logic of "oh well at least we won't owe him as much later so we can just cut him" is just nonsensical business.

[Slappy]

You would hope so, since you'd be paying for 5.5 wins a year (not factoring in any inflation of the cost of wins) for the next seven years, for a player who's averaged 4.0 wins a year over the last four years. $175M is roughly the cost of 30-35 wins (or as much as 39 given today's rate of about $4.5M/win) , and Fielder has been worth about 20 so far in the 6+ years of his career.

Baseball management is so simple, isn't it?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Baseball management is so simple, isn't it?

Not really. Most FA's are overpaid and the market forces are such that you can't go out and buy/acquire a player at market value of 4.5 mil win. There is much more beyond that. The principles are simple, the execution is amazingly complex.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You would hope so, since you'd be paying for 5.5 wins a year (not factoring in any inflation of the cost of wins) for the next seven years, for a player who's averaged 4.0 wins a year over the last four years. $175M is roughly the cost of 30-35 wins (or as much as 39 given today's rate of about $4.5M/win) , and Fielder has been worth about 20 so far in the 6+ years of his career.

Well, fwar certainly does punish him on defense and baserunning doesn't it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, fwar certainly does punish him on defense and baserunning doesn't it.

As well it should. If Fielder were a nimble shortstop he'd be worth $40M a year, easy.

[DrungoHazewood]

Baseball management is so simple, isn't it?

Maybe I'm not following what you're saying. It's pretty simple to get in the ballpark of what a guy is worth compared to recent free agents. It's also pretty easy to figure out the value, in wins, within a pretty small margin of error, of most players. Not that there aren't still some areas of disagreement.

It's downright trivial to figure out that most free agents aren't worth what you pay them, and that they're mostly paid for peak years in the past but signed for decline years far into the future.

Now, coming to an agreement to get the guy to sign with your team at your price isn't simple at all. And when you're the Orioles, it's darn near impossible.

[MrOrange82]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings111110/exploring-market-free-agents-albert-pujols-prince-fielder

Looks like Jtrea's Fielder contract could work although Trea wants to defer some money, that ain't happening.


"Even though he's only 27, which is super young for a guy entering free agency, you have to look beyond that," the exec said. "Anybody who cites his age should also look at his dad."

That would be Cecil Fielder, another wide-bodied bopper whose aging pattern could be very instructive for teams looking hard at Prince. Cecil hit 51 homers at age 26 and 44 at age 27 and then never hit 40 again. He also ceased to be a full-time first baseman after 30, never playing more than 80 games in the field in any of his final four seasons. And he was done for good after 34.

"Scott is looking for eight years and $200 million for this guy," said an NL executive. "And if that's the price, he'll be the last guy out there. Maybe, in the end, somebody gives him seven [years] times $25 [million]. But even that's scary."

A-men...

[JTrea81]

Over in Prince's neighborhood, half of the guesses came in at precisely seven years, $175 million ($25 million a year on the nose). But several of the other predictions came in at $20 million or $21 million a year. So the consensus was that Fielder would end up with a seven-year deal at between $22 million and $23 million a year.

That would leave Prince just south of Mark Teixeira's total contract (eight years, $180 million), the current record for a first baseman. And that's a number Fielder and agent Scott Boras could probably swallow.

7/160 plus 15 million deferred from 2019-2029 gives the Orioles that 7/175 value but yet will give Fielder a contract of an average of 22.8 million per season which falls exactly where the people think it will. I doubt anybody offers Fielder an 8/200 deal given his body type and the results of contracts to Werth and Crawford. So that deal lands him IMO.


"There's only one problem," the same exec said. "They picked the wrong year -- because they don't have the Yankees and the Red Sox, or the Phillies, to jack up their price. And the Mets are on life support."

And this right here is the main reason the Orioles should pounce. How many opportunities will the Orioles have to land a premium bat under 30 without the Yankees or Red Sox pursuing him? The answer is none in the next several years. First of all there is no premium FA bat that will be under 30 that will be available (minus Kemp who will likely be extended), and you can bet that the Yankees and Red Sox will be in on any premium FA bat that is out there as well as all the other teams because the class will have more demand than supply. That's simply not a good mix for the Orioles.

The Orioles can beat the competition they have for Fielder now, where I don't think they can regardless of where they are as the Yankees and Red Sox will always be able to beat the Orioles' offer for a bat in the future.

And if Duquette thinks we can compete in 2013 or even 2014, he needs to get Fielder now so he has him, and won't have to compete to land him when he needs him the most.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Still the logic of "oh well at least we won't owe him as much later so we can just cut him" is just nonsensical business.

And we wonder why Angelos sometimes questions the intelligence of his baseball people.

[My O's Face]

7/160 plus 15 million deferred from 2019-2029 gives the Orioles that 7/175 value but yet will give Fielder a contract of an average of 22.8 million per season which falls exactly where the people think it will. I doubt anybody offers Fielder an 8/200 deal given his body type and the results of contracts to Werth and Crawford. So that deal lands him IMO.



And this right here is the main reason the Orioles should pounce. How many opportunities will the Orioles have to land a premium bat under 30 without the Yankees or Red Sox pursuing him? The answer is none in the next several years. First of all there is no premium FA bat that will be under 30 that will be available (minus Kemp who will likely be extended), and you can bet that the Yankees and Red Sox will be in on any premium FA bat that is out there as well as all the other teams because the class will have more demand than supply. That's simply not a good mix for the Orioles.

The Orioles can beat the competition they have for Fielder now, where I don't think they can regardless of where they are as the Yankees and Red Sox will always be able to beat the Orioles' offer for a bat in the future.

And if Duquette thinks we can compete in 2013 or even 2014, he needs to get Fielder now so he has him, and won't have to compete to land him when he needs him the most.

Amen. I just wish others would see it this way.

[Frobby]

Not really. Most FA's are overpaid and the market forces are such that you can't go out and buy/acquire a player at market value of 4.5 mil win. There is much more beyond that. The principles are simple, the execution is amazingly complex.

Well, the value of a win is determined by free agent market forces and factored into fangraphs' equation, no? So, in that sense, it's not true that "most free agents are overpaid," because fangraphs assumes that, as a group, they are paid exactly what the market will bear. Of course, those "dollars per win" calculations are based on past performance of the free agent class, and I suspect that for age- and motivation-related reasons, most free agents do not perform as well over the life of their new contracts as they did in the seasons that preceded their contracts.

[JohnnyK27]

Amen. I just wish others would see it this way.

I agree with you & Trea on this one....Hopefully it works out this way for the O's

[JohnnyK27]

Dont know how credible this guy is

http://orioles-nation.com/2011/11/10/2012-potential-fa-infielders/


The Orioles could use some consistency and lack a big bat that can stabilize a lineup. They could use a player to help fill the gap up the middle, or someone at the hot corner who can provide an offensive and defensive upgrade.

I will just save everyone the time and effort before reading this piece: Albert Pujols will not be wearing Baltimore orange and black. I also highly doubt that Jose Reyes will sign and move J.J. Hardy to third or second base. Both are clearly creme of the crop players, but neither would be seriously considered by the O’s front office.



He names & highlights Fielder, A Ramirez, and Cuddyer.... Then mentions other potential targets Carlos Pena, Clint Barmes, Jamey Carroll , Aaron Hill. I sure hope DD doesnt waste his money on mediocre players like Pena.

[JTrea81]

Barmes I could see. Pena is just a dumb signing and would be similar to the Lee and Atkins signings in terms of production.

Fielder is a must. I just pray Duquette kind of danced around the subject and won't reveal his cards for a reason...

[blid]

7/160 plus 15 million deferred from 2019-2029 gives the Orioles that 7/175 value but yet will give Fielder a contract of an average of 22.8 million per season which falls exactly where the people think it will. I doubt anybody offers Fielder an 8/200 deal given his body type and the results of contracts to Werth and Crawford. So that deal lands him IMO.



And this right here is the main reason the Orioles should pounce. How many opportunities will the Orioles have to land a premium bat under 30 without the Yankees or Red Sox pursuing him? The answer is none in the next several years. First of all there is no premium FA bat that will be under 30 that will be available (minus Kemp who will likely be extended), and you can bet that the Yankees and Red Sox will be in on any premium FA bat that is out there as well as all the other teams because the class will have more demand than supply. That's simply not a good mix for the Orioles.

The Orioles can beat the competition they have for Fielder now, where I don't think they can regardless of where they are as the Yankees and Red Sox will always be able to beat the Orioles' offer for a bat in the future.

And if Duquette thinks we can compete in 2013 or even 2014, he needs to get Fielder now so he has him, and won't have to compete to land him when he needs him the most.Good post.

[elsid]

The Rangers have money to go after whatever they want.

Giants, Sea, Rangers, Nats, Angels and Florida/Miami...to name a few.

They could all be in on him.

There is always a surprise team as well.

Rangers are looking more towards Pujols than Fielder really. I think it will really depend on who signs first (as well as who gets him), and my guess is that person will be Pujols.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Well, the value of a win is determined by free agent market forces and factored into fangraphs' equation, no? So, in that sense, it's not true that "most free agents are overpaid," because fangraphs assumes that, as a group, they are paid exactly what the market will bear. Of course, those "dollars per win" calculations are based on past performance of the free agent class, and I suspect that for age- and motivation-related reasons, most free agents do not perform as well over the life of their new contracts as they did in the seasons that preceded their contracts.

Right, I'm talking mostly about future value, but there are also other issues like the value of arb/pe-rarb players, acess/obtainability, scale, problems with "market" linearity for FA's and marginal wins etc. There are also more advanced models that relate to revenue.

[JTrea81]

The Rangers have money to go after whatever they want.

Giants, Sea, Rangers, Nats, Angels and Florida/Miami...to name a few.

They could all be in on him.

There is always a surprise team as well.

And the Orioles could beat all these teams if they wanted to.

Seattle's park is horrible as is Oakland, so that will depress Fielder's numbers. The Angels and Rangers play in that division as well. Ditto for the Giants who also have PETCO and Dodger Stadium.

The Rangers also won't go to great lengths to get Fielder most likely because they still have the A-Rod contract in their heads and will want to spend on pitching and extending Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus etc...

Washington could be a possiblity, but I think the Nats focus on Reyes as they need a leadoff hitter and pitching. And Washington also doesn't have the DH which could prolong Fielder's career.

Baltimore is the best spot for him IMO. He'll have the visibility playing against the Yankees and Red Sox all the time. He'll have the parks like OPACY, Toronto and New York to hit in to boost his numbers, and he'll have the DH to fall back on and get some rest later in his career.

He's always said he wants to be better than his father, and Baltimore gives him that best opportunity IMO.

There's a good fit here, but as always it's up to the Orioles to make it happen...

[Dipper9]

7/160 plus 15 million deferred from 2019-2029 gives the Orioles that 7/175 value but yet will give Fielder a contract of an average of 22.8 million per season which falls exactly where the people think it will. I doubt anybody offers Fielder an 8/200 deal given his body type and the results of contracts to Werth and Crawford. So that deal lands him IMO.



And this right here is the main reason the Orioles should pounce. How many opportunities will the Orioles have to land a premium bat under 30 without the Yankees or Red Sox pursuing him? The answer is none in the next several years. First of all there is no premium FA bat that will be under 30 that will be available (minus Kemp who will likely be extended), and you can bet that the Yankees and Red Sox will be in on any premium FA bat that is out there as well as all the other teams because the class will have more demand than supply. That's simply not a good mix for the Orioles.

The Orioles can beat the competition they have for Fielder now, where I don't think they can regardless of where they are as the Yankees and Red Sox will always be able to beat the Orioles' offer for a bat in the future.

And if Duquette thinks we can compete in 2013 or even 2014, he needs to get Fielder now so he has him, and won't have to compete to land him when he needs him the most.

Interesting how you pick out the part of the story that backs up your wishes, but conviently ignore the part of the story that basically says Fielder is a fat somunagun who won't be worth his salary.

And by interesting, I mean typical Trea!

[El Gordo]

And the Orioles could beat all these teams if they wanted to.

Seattle's park is horrible as is Oakland, so that will depress Fielder's numbers. The Angels and Rangers play in that division as well. Ditto for the Giants who also have PETCO and Dodger Stadium.

The Rangers also won't go to great lengths to get Fielder most likely because they still have the A-Rod contract in their heads and will want to spend on pitching and extending Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus etc...

Washington could be a possiblity, but I think the Nats focus on Reyes as they need a leadoff hitter and pitching. And Washington also doesn't have the DH which could prolong Fielder's career.

Baltimore is the best spot for him IMO. He'll have the visibility playing against the Yankees and Red Sox all the time. He'll have the parks like OPACY, Toronto and New York to hit in to boost his numbers, and he'll have the DH to fall back on and get some rest later in his career.

He's always said he wants to be better than his father, and Baltimore gives him that best opportunity IMO.

There's a good fit here, but as always it's up to the Orioles to make it happen...From Fielder's point of view, TEX is the best destination IMO. A contender for sometime a great hitters park and protection from the likes of Hamilton, Napoli and Cruz. Wow. They have the money to sign a TOR SP or post for Darvish, and sign Fielder. They have to move Young first. For another SP most likely.

[Dannyboy]

I also find it interesting that trea wants to unload Markakis because he is overpaid and underperforming. But he is willing to fork out 20+ mill. a year for a guy, that half way thru the cantract will be doing the same.

[DrungoHazewood]

Interesting how you pick out the part of the story that backs up your wishes, but conviently ignore the part of the story that basically says Fielder is a fat somunagun who won't be worth his salary.

And by interesting, I mean typical Trea!

By Trea's logic all free agents are worth it, because they're all signaling a franchise's intent to win the World Series right this very second. Anything short of that is treason (or is that Trea-son?!). Who cares if Fielder produces 1.5 WAR for $125M over the last five years of his deal, since he'll be eating those chocolate eclairs out of the 2012 World Series trophy!!

[JTrea81]

I also find it interesting that trea wants to unload Markakis because he is overpaid and underperforming. But he is willing to fork out 20+ mill. a year for a guy, that half way thru the cantract will be doing the same.

Markakis is overpaid for his production now and is supposedly at his peak and keeps declining. Fielder is at his peak and will likely be there for the first 3-4 years of his deal which is pretty much the window of this core right now...

[Sports Guy]

Markakis is overpaid for his production now and is supposedly at his peak and keeps declining. Fielder is at his peak and will likely be there for the first 3-4 years of his deal which is pretty much the window of this core right now...His peak was 2009...And that year was sandwiched by 2 subpar years.

So, how do you decide when his peak is? Is it just because its what you want, so you make it up as you go along?

Fielder isn't coming here..no chance.

Get over it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

His peak was 2009...And that year was sandwiched by 2 subpar years.

So, how do you decide when his peak is? Is it just because its what you want, so you make it up as you go along?

Fielder isn't coming here..no chance.

Get over it.

This Fielder stuff should be a lot easier on Trea than Tex was. I suspect DD will shut the idea down soon enough.

[JTrea81]

This Fielder stuff should be a lot easier on Trea than Tex was. I suspect DD will shut the idea down soon enough.

If he does, there better had be one heck of a Plan B...

[Dannyboy]

7/160 plus 15 million deferred from 2019-2029 gives the Orioles that 7/175 value but yet will give Fielder a contract of an average of 22.8 million per season which falls exactly where the people think it will. I doubt anybody offers Fielder an 8/200 deal given his body type and the results of contracts to Werth and Crawford. So that deal lands him IMO.



And this right here is the main reason the Orioles should pounce. How many opportunities will the Orioles have to land a premium bat under 30 without the Yankees or Red Sox pursuing him? The answer is none in the next several years. First of all there is no premium FA bat that will be under 30 that will be available (minus Kemp who will likely be extended), and you can bet that the Yankees and Red Sox will be in on any premium FA bat that is out there as well as all the other teams because the class will have more demand than supply. That's simply not a good mix for the Orioles.

The Orioles can beat the competition they have for Fielder now, where I don't think they can regardless of where they are as the Yankees and Red Sox will always be able to beat the Orioles' offer for a bat in the future.

And if Duquette thinks we can compete in 2013 or even 2014, he needs to get Fielder now so he has him, and won't have to compete to land him when he needs him the most. An 18yr, 175 mil. contract? Somehow I don't think Fielder or Boras are going to go for it. As far as the defered money. IMO, that 15mil. number is way to low. In order for PA to start considering that type of contract, IMO he's going to want to defer at least 25mil. and Fielder and Boras IMO won't be digging that either.

[CA-ORIOLE]

If he does, there better had be one heck of a Plan B...

I watched a show about the 1994 Expos on MLB Network today and it essentially was all about DD building that team. I think you're going to see a plan/extension similar to AM's but we'll see improvement/involvement in the international market and player development etc., but will not be seeing any big FA signings. I just don't see it happening. I suspect we'll see some more aggressive trades than AM. I think that might mean Hardy/Jones etc. I'm a bit worried about DD's connections being out of the game for so long, but unlike AM he's got some charisma and I suspect/hope is a better judge of talent than AM was. I think he'll be more aggressive than AM on numerous fronts. Just not the one you envision.

[Dipper9]

This Fielder stuff should be a lot easier on Trea than Tex was. I suspect DD will shut the idea down soon enough.

DD has ALREADY shot it down about 5 times since Tuesday morning, but Trea doesn't want to let little things like QUOTES from our GM himself to get in the way of his Trea-ean Theories.

[Fan4Life]

DD has ALREADY shot it down about 5 times since Tuesday morning, but Trea doesn't want to let little things like QUOTES from our GM himself to get in the way of his Trea-ean Theories.

And hangout posters have guns to their heads requiring them to reply to every repetitive post. :D I'm not sure which is more frustrating to see in a thread.

EDIT: With all due respect!

[Dipper9]

And hangout posters have guns to their heads requiring them to reply to every repetitive post. :D I'm not sure which is more frustrating to see in a thread.

EDIT: With all due respect!

Hey, not fuh nuthin, but fughedattaboudit!

[CA-ORIOLE]

DD has ALREADY shot it down about 5 times since Tuesday morning, but Trea doesn't want to let little things like QUOTES from our GM himself to get in the way of his Trea-ean Theories.

Right, I understand DD made a general statement about not signinig high priced FA's. In Tex's case there was a clear indication that we were in. In this case, I think we'll see a "clearer" indication we are not.

[DrungoHazewood]

If he does, there better had be one heck of a Plan B...

Yea, it's called building a real major league organization instead of dreaming about a fantasy team.

[Sports Guy]

Looks like Texas doesn't want to give a 7+ year deal to Fielder or Pujols.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/nolan-ryan-talks-moreland-pujols-fielder.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[CA-ORIOLE]

Looks like Texas doesn't want to give a 7+ year deal to Fielder or Pujols.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/nolan-ryan-talks-moreland-pujols-fielder.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Looks like 7/140 for Fielder might do it then.

[Dipper9]

Looks like Texas doesn't want to give a 7+ year deal to Fielder or Pujols.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/nolan-ryan-talks-moreland-pujols-fielder.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

If the better teams like Texas have this line of thinking, and presumably Boston and NY are not in the hunt, it may become affordable for us to get into this thing.

That said, how disgusting would if be if DiPoto ends up with one of them and we don't, knowing he could of been in Baltimore?

[JTrea81]

Right now the Mariners and Brewers are the only teams that seem to be in on him.

Everybody else is kind of lurking out there. The Angels and Marlins have dipped their toes into the waters somewhat, though the Marlins want Pujols more.

We've got to be able to beat the Mariners and Brewers though...

You aren't going to get many opportunities to strike in FA to get a premium player that Boston and New York don't want let alone Texas.

[Frobby]

If the better teams like Texas have this line of thinking, and presumably Boston and NY are not in the hunt, it may become affordable for us to get into this thing.

That said, how disgusting would if be if DiPoto ends up with one of them and we don't, knowing he could of been in Baltimore?

The Angels and the Orioles are in very different situations. Assuming DiPoto goes out and gets Fielder/Pujols for the Angels, it doesn't mean that would have been his strategy in Baltimore (or that the owner would have let that be his strategy).

[Sports Guy]

BTW, it doesn't say that Texas wouldn't give him a 5-6 year deal.

[Dipper9]

The Angels and the Orioles are in very different situations. Assuming DiPoto goes out and gets Fielder/Pujols for the Angels, it doesn't mean that would have been his strategy in Baltimore (or that the owner would have let that be his strategy).

No doubt. In fact, even if we had DiPoto I'm fairly sure he wouldn't have been permitted to bring in the Prince or the King. But you know some people (JTrea and that radio station on the AM dial) will certainly take that approach!

[Dipper9]

BTW, it doesn't say that Texas wouldn't give him a 5-6 year deal.

I noticed this as well. Nolan Ryan chose his words carefully.