Strategy check vs. the 49ers

[Aglets]

It appears that San Francisco has taken over the title for top defense in the NFL. They have allowed the fewest points per game (14.5). Pretty impressive.

So what should our offensive strategy be?

This is interesting, they have the BEST rushing defense in the league (yds/g) but a very pedestrian 23rd ranked pass defense.

It pains me to say it, but it looks like maybe we shouldn't feature Rice as much in this game as we've been rallying for in the past. Maybe this game should be more on Flacco's shoulders?

[flashjordnk]

No No No No No....No.

This is exactly what Cam Cameron is going to WANT to do. The Bengals run defense, pretty good right? Pass defense pretty pedestrian right? Benglas were giving up the 2nd fewest yards per carry in the league. And look what happened in the second half, bang...59 yard run. Oh yeah...remember those two TD passes? They were from play action passes.

Balance, creates the tendency for their overly confident run defense to over pursue and bit on play action passes. You need balance no matter what. If the Niners knew you were going to pass every down, their pass defense statistics probably look a lot better. These numbers are also skewed because they always have the lead. When you parse out the fact that teams are constantly throwing and look at YPA, you'll see the Niners are actually tied for 8th best in the league, a far distance from their 23rd ranked total passing yards per game.

If Cam Cameron reads this and decides to throw 50 times, I'm holding you personally accountable :).

[MikeAD]

I support a balanced attack, but we should be able to tear them up with the passing game.

I have a feeling this is going to be one of those games where Flacco throws it 52 plus times...but I've been wrong before. We certainly need to at least get the run game going although we obviously can't expect too much success on the ground.

[flashjordnk]

I have a feeling this is going to be one of those games where Flacco throws in 52 plus times...but I've been wrong before.

If this happens, you know we'll lose right? Tons of three and outs. That are less than 3 minute drives. Coming off a short week. Defense will burn out fast. Lewis coming off turf toe. Etc. etc. Same formula, same tape. The Niners will be able to sniff this out early and won't respect the PA at all.

Throwing it 52 times if you don't have Brady/Manning/Brees/Roethlisberger (that was painful to type, I hate that guy) is a huge mistake. Flacco's accuracy this year will prevent us from sustaining drives and I bet we burn out just like in Seattle and not be able to shut down a really good rushing attack from the Niners.

[MikeAD]

If this happens, you know we'll lose right? Tons of three and outs. That are less than 3 minute drives. Coming off a short week. Defense will burn out fast. Lewis coming off turf toe. Etc. etc. Same formula, same tape. The Niners will be able to sniff this out early and won't respect the PA at all.

Throwing it 52 times if you don't have Brady/Manning/Brees/Roethlisberger (that was painful to type, I hate that guy) is a huge mistake. Flacco's accuracy this year will prevent us from sustaining drives and I bet we burn out just like in Seattle and not be able to shut down a really good rushing attack from the Niners.

Of course I know it won't be good for us, but I still think it will happen. The "weakness" on that defense is their pass defense, they are 23rd in total passing yards and passing yards per game, given up 14 TDs despite 15 INTs and 25 sacks (lord help us). I know Cameron will try to exploit that. The problem is they do a tremendous job in the middle of the field and have done well against TEs and RBs coming out of the pocket. Both of these are necessary for us to have an electric passing game.

[Aglets]

I'm not saying Rice should carry it 5 times like in Seattle. That is inexcusable.

I agree that we need a balanced attack also, to keep them honest. I just hope we work it in such a way to target their biggest weaknesses.

[Hooded Viper]

I think there will be balance but more skewed towards the pass. Ray is a threat to go deep every time he touches the ball and that threat alone opens up so many things such as play action, QB Waggles/rollouts etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like 25 run plays and 35 pass.

[flashjordnk]

Of course I know it won't be good for us, but I still think it will happen. The "weakness" on that defense is their pass defense, they are 23rd in total passing yards and passing yards per game, given up 14 TDs despite 15 INTs and 25 sacks (lord help us). I know Cameron will try to exploit that. The problem is they do a tremendous job in the middle of the field and have done well against TEs and RBs coming out of the pocket. Both of these are necessary for us to have an electric passing game.

Right but read my original post. There isn't anything there to exploit. Their Yards Per Attempt allowed is top 10 in the league. That means that teams are throwing more volume, but their defense isn't actually performing that poorly. Think about it like this, their 14 TDs allowed is tied for 16th best in the league. Literally average. Teams have thrown the ball against the Niners 399 times, third most in the league. The 16th ranked team has 50 less pass attempts against. That's a whole games worth of attempts to try and score a TD because teams are chasing them from behind.

Their 1st down allowed percentage is 9th lowest in the league. Their sacks are 13th overall. Their INTs they rank 2nd.

Other than total yards which is an inherently flawed statistic, there is not "evidence" that the Niners pass defense is actually a weakness.

The Bengals actually allow less yards per carry. They've allowed 60 more rushes so of course the Niners will rank better in yards. But they give up .2 yards less per carry. And given there is only a 1.9 YPC difference between first and last that represents a 10% difference, with Cinci being at the advantage. That Ray Rice carry won't happen EDIT in the Bengals game EDIT if we don't run the ball.

And I'm not really directing all this at your MikeAD, more Cameron. I hope he's reading this.

[primetime]

Right but read my original post. There isn't anything there to exploit. Their Yards Per Attempt allowed is top 10 in the league. That means that teams are throwing more volume, but their defense isn't actually performing that poorly. Think about it like this, their 14 TDs allowed is tied for 16th best in the league. Literally average. Teams have thrown the ball against the Niners 399 times, third most in the league. The 16th ranked team has 50 less pass attempts against. That's a whole games worth of attempts to try and score a TD because teams are chasing them from behind.

Their 1st down allowed percentage is 9th lowest in the league. Their sacks are 13th overall. Their INTs they rank 2nd.

Other than total yards which is an inherently flawed statistic, there is not "evidence" that the Niners pass defense is actually a weakness.

The Bengals actually allow less yards per carry. They've allowed 60 more rushes so of course the Niners will rank better in yards. But they give up .2 yards less per carry. And given there is only a 1.9 YPC difference between first and last that represents a 10% difference, with Cinci being at the advantage. That Ray Rice carry won't happen EDIT in the Bengals game EDIT if we don't run the ball.

And I'm not really directing all this at your MikeAD, more Cameron. I hope he's reading this.

Also, teams will get frustrated with running the ball if they're constantly getting bottled up at the LOS, so they abandon the run. Against Cincy we did exactly what we should by pounding the rock early, drawing some 8 and even 9 man fronts and play faked to exploit opportunities on the outside.

I firmly believe we can attack SF the same way, get them to bring a safety down in the box, then it's TSmith over the top. God forbid Evans can go full speed this week, then Dickson and Pitta could have a field day over the intermediate middle.

If our coaching staff allows things to play out correctly and we get/stay healthy, our offense has the potential to be almost unstoppable. And it feels weird to type that. LOL

[RavNMadMan]

As always health plays a major factor. If the Ravens have to go the air a healthy Lee Evans would be a big factor if he can run at full speed. Not sure we saw that last week. Also we control the LOS particularly on defense and Ngata has appeared to be hindered by a nagging injury recently. Obvious a healthly Ray Lewis would nice but I don't want him if not 100%, we'll him need for a playoff run.

IMO this game will be won +-5 yards from the LOS. That means we will have to establish an effective run game to set-up play action.

[AgentOrange]

Not much team speed on the 49ers D, they haven't seen a WR as fast as Torrey Smith this year.

Takes some shots downfield.

[ccbird]

Obviously balance is important by I would tend to lean toward the pass. SOmething in the 60-40 range.

BTW....looking at the stats the 248 passing yards allowed is misleading. Here is some of their other key passing defense numbers

Pass Completion Against: 58%(9th)
YPA Against: 6.7(8th)
Ints: 15(2nd)
Sacks:25 (13)
QB Rating Against: 74.3(5th)


So while their pass defense may not be as good as their run defense they are still a top 10 pass defense as well. Still with that said, the 4 best Qbs they played(Romo,Vick, Eli,Stafford), 4 Qbs that IMO are comparable to Joe, all had pretty good passing games against them.

[flashjordnk]

All in all we had 23 pass attempts. Joe had 6 rushes. I remember 1 planned...just terrible play call, lol.

So that's 28 passes. 30 runs.

To be noted the Niners had 24 attempts, 9 sacks and 2 scrambles, so 35 pass attempts. And ran the ball 18 times. The Ravens pass defense is clearly better stopping the run this year than the pass. But low and behold, you let any team pin their ears back and rush the passer and you'll give up 9 sacks.

Balance matters.

This is the one other thing I start to think about. Let's say we throw it now 7 times more. 3 of those would be incomplete. That potentially could be 2 minutes of TOP. We only had 31 minutes of Time of Possession in the game. Granted that doesn't account for succeeding and getting more first downs and there is a debate to be had there. Etc etc.

I think Cam needs some credit for taming down his crazy pass attempt trend and putting this team at least IMO a better position to win.