Best Remaining Free Agent Fits [Archive] - Orioles Hangout Community

Brendan25

12-11-2011, 02:31 PM

RZNJ

12-11-2011, 02:35 PM

A lot of free agents are starting to come to a decision on where they are going to be playing next season. Guys like Pujols, Wilson, Buehrle, and others are gone.

Players like Aramis Ramirz, Edwin Jackson, and even Prince Fielder are still out there. Some posters want to rebuild, some posters want Prince. So in your opinion, which available free agents remaining would be the best fit for the Orioles moving forward?

The best fit is Yu Darvish. Young, possible #1 starter to build the rotation around, and add the good kind of depth. The other best fits are the other international players, with the youngest being the best fit. No loss of players. No really huge contracts besides the one to Darvish. Ramirez is actually a good fit if you were going to sign someone like Darvish to go along with him.

CA-ORIOLE

12-11-2011, 02:42 PM

Not free agents, but Cespedes or Darvish.

Actual FA's - Rick Ankiel. I have mixed feelings about adding a FA SP. If we deal Guthrie I suppose yes.

oriole

12-11-2011, 02:44 PM

Sign Prince
Then sign Ramirez
Rotate the three (including Reynolds) through their respective positions and DH
Trade Jones for an awesome pitcher
Sign Cody Ross for CF

Roberts
Markakis
Ramirez
Fielder
Hardy
Wieters
Reynolds
Reimold
Ross

LOL, yeah...not gonna happen.

joew

12-11-2011, 02:55 PM

Davish is the best because if we win the bid we're the only choice

Oriolidae85

12-11-2011, 02:56 PM

Not a big Ramirez fan...I think he can have at least one good season in the AL, but the transition is more difficult for an aging veteran (see D. Lee, A. Dunn, etc...). It's going to take 3 years to get him to Baltimore and he has no defensive value. That said, he could have some value as a backup CI and DH....just wonder how much risk $24M+ is he really worth for several years.

JTrea81

12-11-2011, 03:11 PM

Fielder and Beltran are the best fits going forward for the offense IMO.

Fielder is obvious, and Beltran is your LFer that can play CF and DH.

Put both of them in the lineup and you get an instant upgrade in offense.

RF Markakis
SS Hardy
LF Beltran
1B Fielder
CF Jones
C Wieters
3B Reynolds
DH Roberts
2B Antonelli

As for pitching, Roy Oswalt makes sense as you could get him for a 2-3 year deal.

Oriolidae85

12-11-2011, 03:32 PM

The best fit is Yu Darvish. Young, possible #1 starter to build the rotation around, and add the good kind of depth. The other best fits are the other international players, with the youngest being the best fit. No loss of players. No really huge contracts besides the one to Darvish. Ramirez is actually a good fit if you were going to sign someone like Darvish to go along with him.

Agree that Darvish makes the most sense as well as the international market...

JTrea81

12-11-2011, 03:34 PM

The best fit is Yu Darvish. Young, possible #1 starter to build the rotation around, and add the good kind of depth. The other best fits are the other international players, with the youngest being the best fit. No loss of players. No really huge contracts besides the one to Darvish. Ramirez is actually a good fit if you were going to sign someone like Darvish to go along with him.

And why would Darvish only sign a 3 year deal with the Orioles?

Barnaby Graves

12-11-2011, 03:35 PM

Fielder and Beltran are the best fits going forward IMO.

Fielder is obvious, and Beltran is your LFer that can play CF and DH.

Put both of them in the lineup and you get an instant upgrade in offense.

RF Markakis
SS Hardy
LF Beltran
1B Fielder
CF Jones
C Wieters
3B Reynolds
DH Roberts
2B Antonelli

Ugh, Roberts at DH. I doubt he could put up the numbers at DH that would make him worth it there.

I doubt he could put up numbers at DH that would have made him worthwhile at 2B.

SrMeowMeow

12-11-2011, 03:50 PM

I guess you give 2B to Roberts until either he proves he can't play or he injures himself again. If we're going the free agent route, then yes, ideally I'd plug in Fielder at 1B, Beltran at LF, Aramis at 3B. Use DH to rest Roberts (for Andino) and Wieters (for Teagarden) against righties and platoon Davis against lefties. Move Reynolds for something like what we got him for. Sign Darvish and a solid back-end starter (I would have loved Bedard in this role) like Garland or Jeff Francis. That'd give us a very strong team.

Rotation: Darvish, Guthrie, Francis, Arrieta, Britton. Start Matusz in AAA.
Bullpen: Just let Jim Johnson close already. Maybe try Tillman out of the bullpen. Simon can be in there too. Gregg is fine as a middle reliever.
Lineup: Solid from top to bottom. Wieters, Fielder, Roberts/Andino, Hardy, Aramis, Markakis, Jones, Beltran.
Payroll: What, 125M? :D

Too bad we're not the Yankees. :p

RZNJ

12-11-2011, 03:55 PM

And why would Darvish only sign a 3 year deal with the Orioles?

He wouldn't, unless it was for 20M a year. If you are mentioning the 3 year deal because of what Duquette said, then yes, they'll never sign a top FA pitcher who's not near the end of his career. I'm just not sure if I believe Duquette. Either way, I don't believe they'll sign Darvish just like I'm sure they won't sign Fielder. So why are you asking me about this?

Oriolidae85

12-11-2011, 03:58 PM

And why would Darvish only sign a 3 year deal with the Orioles?

Understand that the Orioles have the 3 year contract limit on pitching contracts, but Darvish is younger than most available SP's and I could see an exception being made. Would they add option years to Darvish, or guarantee more years in his contract, given his age? Wonder when we will find out who wins the Darvish Bid, as the Yankees Nakajima posting bid took about a week after the bidding deadline. So it could take until the 21st of Dec.

Wonder what the Rangers would bid for Darvish, if they did match/exceed Wilson's contract, how much are they willing to go for an unknown. Same with the other teams with big pockets

RZNJ

12-11-2011, 04:02 PM

Word around the Red Sox is that they might not even bid. Word around the Yankees is that they aren't going to go big after Darvish. I wonder if any of this is posturing in hopes of keeping the bids low.

Oriolidae85

12-11-2011, 04:14 PM

This has probably been linked (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/sports/baseball/japanese-team-will-make-pitcher-yu-darvish-available.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nyt%2Frss%2FSports+(NYT+%3E+S ports)) before, but has some good tidbits of information:

The Yankees, who could use a front-end pitcher for their rotation, just won the posting bid for the 29-year-old Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, but for a modest $2.5 million. No one knows what it will take to win the posting auction for Darvish, but many in baseball say it will be at least $30 million, and perhaps significantly more.

Will that number scare off the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, despite their financial resources? It might. The Yankees had a disastrous experience when they signed Kei Igawa from Japan to a five-year, $20 million contract, in addition to the $26 million posting fee. Igawa spent the great portion of that contract in the minor leagues.

And the Red Sox had only mixed results when they spent lavishly to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka. Boston won the posting in November 2006 with a bid of $51,111,111.11, then signed him to a five-year, $50 million contract, so the entire venture cost more than $100 million.

(The Red Sox obliterated the second-place bid of the Mets, who were shocked to have lost with their $39 million bid. This time around, the strapped Mets will not be involved with Darvish.)

SammyBirdland

12-11-2011, 04:17 PM

Reimold > Beltran

JTrea81

12-11-2011, 04:18 PM

Reimold > Beltran

Beltran still put up 4.7 fWAR last season and a .910 OPS.

How did Reimold do again?

Can_of_corn

12-11-2011, 04:19 PM

And why would Darvish only sign a 3 year deal with the Orioles?

Because he would be 28 and an unrestricted free agent when it was over.

JTrea81

12-11-2011, 04:21 PM

Because he would be 28 and an unrestricted free agent when it was over.

He doesn't want to go to the US in the first place and he wants more than DiceK got.

A three year offer from the Orioles would cause him to go back to Japan and wait until he could be a FA or just reposted next offseason.

Can_of_corn

12-11-2011, 04:26 PM

He doesn't want to go to the US in the first place and he wants more than DiceK got.

A three year offer from the Orioles would cause him to go back to Japan and wait until he could be a FA or just reposted next offseason.

If he was anything close to adamant about staying in Japan he wouldn't have been posted.

It is within the realm of reason that a player with his combination of youth, ability and ego would be willing to sign a three year deal in the US so he could hit the free agent market while still in his prime rather then wait it out in Japan.

Mind you I don't necessarily think this is the case but you were asking for a reason why he would be willing to sign a three year deal and I provided one.

RZNJ

12-11-2011, 04:28 PM

If he was anything close to adamant about staying in Japan he wouldn't have been posted.

It is within the realm of reason that a player with his combination of youth, ability and ego would be willing to sign a three year deal in the US so he could hit the free agent market while still in his prime rather then wait it out in Japan.

Mind you I don't necessarily think this is the case but you were asking for a reason why he would be willing to sign a three year deal and I provided one.

JTrea just wants to discuss REALISTIC possibilities like Prince Fielder! :rofl:

SrMeowMeow

12-11-2011, 04:30 PM

JTrea just has a fat American fetish. This is well-known.

jtaz28

12-11-2011, 04:32 PM

Chubbys need love too.

allstar1579

12-11-2011, 04:41 PM

Beltran still put up 4.7 fWAR last season and a .910 OPS.

How did Reimold do again?

Reimold = $400,000 - 1.5 WAR = $266,667 per WAR

Beltran = $19.3m - 4.4 WAR = $4,386,363 per WAR

Reimold was much more bang for the buck.

SrMeowMeow

12-11-2011, 04:45 PM

Reimold = $400,000 - 1.5 WAR = $266,667 per WAR

Beltran = $19.3m - 4.4 WAR = $4,386,363 per WAR

Reimold was much more bang for the buck.

But Beltran won't cost 19.3M this offseason and choosing a 3 WAR guy for 10M over a 1 WAR guy for free is defensible.

Can_of_corn

12-11-2011, 04:48 PM

But Beltran won't cost 19.3M this offseason and choosing a 3 WAR guy for 10M over a 1 WAR guy for free is defensible.

Of course Reimold had 1.5 WAR in 87 games and 305 PA.

allstar1579

12-11-2011, 04:51 PM

But Beltran won't cost 19.3M this offseason and choosing a 3 WAR guy for 10M over a 1 WAR guy for free is defensible.

He's not going to be cheap either, and he's at that point in his career that I wouldn't go banking on a 3 WAR season. I think Beltran comes out closer to 2 WAR, and with the same playing time I'm confident Reimold will hit that same mark. Would you rather have 2 WAR for $10m or for $400k? Even if there is a 1 WAR difference, is 1 WAR worth $9.6m? Especially when that $9.6 million would pay for Cespedes or Darvish?

weams

12-11-2011, 05:17 PM

If he was anything close to adamant about staying in Japan he wouldn't have been posted.

It is within the realm of reason that a player with his combination of youth, ability and ego would be willing to sign a three year deal in the US so he could hit the free agent market while still in his prime rather then wait it out in Japan.

Mind you I don't necessarily think this is the case but you were asking for a reason why he would be willing to sign a three year deal and I provided one.

This is a perfect post.

Whoever wins his posting bid will sign this player. I do think that the winning post will be enough that you would have to amortize it over a longer time than three years. No way this guy goes back to Japan. No Way.

SrMeowMeow

12-11-2011, 05:47 PM

Of course Reimold had 1.5 WAR in 87 games and 305 PA.

Sure, if you'd like to cherry-pick his best season.

Can_of_corn

12-11-2011, 05:57 PM

Sure, if you'd like to cherry-pick his best season.

I wasn't cherry picking his last season, I was just talking about his last season. I think it is disingenuous to say he is a 1 WAR player, he hit 1.3 WAR in '09 in 411 AB.

Obviously '10 was a disaster for a number of reasons. Considering he ended the season healthy and married I do not put as much weight into '10 as you evidently do.

Even factoring in '10 he has been worth 2.4 WAR over 847AB, that comes out to around 2.0 WAR if he is an everyday starter.

SrMeowMeow

12-11-2011, 06:00 PM

I wasn't cherry picking his last season, I was just talking about his last season. I think it is disingenuous to say he is a 1 WAR player, he hit 1.3 WAR in '09 in 411 AB.

Obviously '10 was a disaster for a number of reasons. Considering he ended the season healthy and married I do not put as much weight into '10 as you evidently do.

Even factoring in '10 he has been worth 2.4 WAR over 847AB, that comes out to around 2.0 WAR if he is an everyday starter.

Let's just cut to the chase. He's been worth 2.1 WAR in 847 plate appearances for his career. That prorates to about 1.4 WAR in 550 PA. And I was just generalizing when I was talking about 1 WAR players. If you want to scrap for that last .3 or .4 WAR, I concede it . :p

Could he be better? Sure. But Beltran is a better bet for 3 WAR than Reimold is for 2.

tntoriole

12-11-2011, 06:01 PM

We should get Koji back, win the post, sign Yu...and then we are turning Japanese, turning Japanese, I really think so :2yay-thumb::2yay-thumb:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEmJ-VWPDM4

oriole

12-11-2011, 06:09 PM

Okay, this is probably very amatuerish and ignorant of me to say but let's think about not comparing a 2 WAR player to a 3 War player. Let's look at the tangibles here...

Reimold is young. Reimold is cheap. Reimold hustles even on routine plays. Reimold has potential to be better than he has shown.
Beltran is old. Beltran is expensive. Beltran has reached his ceiling and more than likely will decline rather than continue putting up the numbers he has already put up. It's just a matter of how sharp that decline will be.

Orioles10Fan

12-11-2011, 06:37 PM

Sign Edwin Jackson and try and trade for Kelly Johnson. You add a legitimate, but young, starting pitcher to help the young starters grow around and a consistent power hitting second baseman. Then actually spend the money internationally on Yoennis Cespedes and you have a real shot at competing.

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 1B
Cespedes LF
Weiters C
Johnson 2B
Scott DH
Andino 3B

Reimold OF/DH
Davis 1B/3B/DH
Beerer OF
Angle OF
Antonelli INF

Edwin Jackson SP
Zach Britton SP
Jake Arrieta SP
Brian Matusz SP
Jeremy Guthrie SP

Yes Reynolds strikes out too much, we have known this.but when you look at the power potrntial in that line up you have 6 guys that could hit 20+ Homeruns in Hardy, Jones, Reynolds, Cespedes, Weiters, and Johnson plus guys that could have comeback/breakout years in Scott, Reimold, Andino, Beerer and Davis along with a now more experienced staff and a solid FA SP in Edwin Jackson.

JTrea81

12-11-2011, 06:41 PM

Reimold = $400,000 - 1.5 WAR = $266,667 per WAR

Beltran = $19.3m - 4.4 WAR = $4,386,363 per WAR

Reimold was much more bang for the buck.

They don't give out trophies for best bang for the buck.

Can_of_corn

12-11-2011, 06:43 PM

They don't give out trophies for best bang for the buck.

They also don't give out trophies to teams that don't have any useful cost controlled assets.

JTrea81

12-11-2011, 06:43 PM

They also don't give out trophies to teams that don't have any useful cost controlled assets.

We can save money in the bullpen, in the starting rotation and on the bench, but you don't save it for LF which is one of the positions teams get a lot of production offensively.

Reimold is better off as trade bait as part of a package for a SP for the rotation anyway.

We've got plenty of cost controlled assets on the team already.

Moose Milligan

12-11-2011, 06:44 PM

Incomprehensible as to why someone would want to send significant dollars to a 34 year old outfielder with an injury history.

JTrea81

12-11-2011, 06:47 PM

Incomprehensible as to why someone would want to send significant dollars to a 34 year old outfielder with an injury history.

Because he's a good player that will help the team win?

Not every player on the roster has to be 25 years old.

Moose Milligan

12-11-2011, 07:22 PM

Because he's a good player that will help the team win?

Not every player on the roster has to be 25 years old.

This team isn't close to winning. At all.

I don't agree with this "We're a 75 win team" kick you're on lately, either. We're way far away from being able to win 75 games.

Talent is one thing, actually playing the games is different. You can sign Beltran to a deal but it doesn't make sense at all when there's a player who actually has a future and hasn't hit his peak yet. I know you hate Reimold, though....is he not part of the 75 win team we've got though?

allstar1579

12-11-2011, 07:30 PM

They don't give out trophies for best bang for the buck.

Yes they do, you might have seen Pujols holding it up in October.

MrOrange82

12-11-2011, 08:36 PM

This team isn't close to winning. At all.

I don't agree with this "We're a 75 win team" kick you're on lately, either. We're way far away from being able to win 75 games.

Talent is one thing, actually playing the games is different. You can sign Beltran to a deal but it doesn't make sense at all when there's a player who actually has a future and hasn't hit his peak yet. I know you hate Reimold, though....is he not part of the 75 win team we've got though?

I don't know why people aren't accounting for the fact that, if Reimold is a 1.5-2.0 WAR player over a full season, replacing Reimold with with someone like Beltran (a probable3.0-ish WAR player given age and injury) doesn't add 3-4 wins to the Orioles...it just adds the difference between Reimold and the hypothetical player (i.e. 1.0-2.0 wins).

In short, Fielder and Beltran would not and could not make the O's an 85+ win team, and Beltran's added cost doesn't hit the team in a vacuum. He'll likely cost way more than he's worth in light of the minimal improvement he represents.

Orioles10Fan

12-11-2011, 09:17 PM

I agree MrOrange82. In regards to Beltran I think he is just too much money to spend on a guy that gets hurt as often as he does. That is like signing up to have two Brian Roberts' on the same roster. As far as Fielder is concerned, I think he would be good for the team just in the fact that we would have that "feared" hitter in the line-up for the next few years whether it's at 1B or DH but I dont see him being as valuable long term as his contract would require.