ESPN Ranks the AL East by Position

[Brion McClanahan]

If you believe ESPN, this is ugly. The Os finish almost 20 points behind the fourth place team. I think every Os fan knows that the team probably can't finish above 4th, and it would take a miracle to get there, but what do you think?

I personally think that Jones and Markakis are too low, but I find it hard to argue with the rest. Until the young starters prove that they belong, I don' think anyone, even Os fans, is drinking the orange cool-aid. I can honestly say this is the first time I can remember that I don't have any excitement for the beginning of baseball season. There is really nothing to look forward to this year, in my opinion.

Anyway, enjoy: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/20265/al-east-showdown-position-rankings

[Frobby]

Well, the overall conclusion that we're the least talented team in the division by a wide margin is hard to dispute. It's interesting that the article pegs Wada as our no. 3 and Chen no. 4. Nobody knows what to expect with these guys.

[crawjo]

Thanks for the link. I agree with pretty much all the rankings. Jones has the potential to be better than Upton but hasn't done it yet. I think Chen might be a little bit better than the writer gives him credit for being, but really who knows?

[Dagger420]

If you believe ESPN, this is ugly. The Os finish almost 20 points behind the fourth place team. I think every Os fan knows that the team probably can't finish above 4th, and it would take a miracle to get there, but what do you think?

I personally think that Jones and Markakis are too low, but I find it hard to argue with the rest. Until the young starters prove that they belong, I don' think anyone, even Os fans, is drinking the orange cool-aid. I can honestly say this is the first time I can remember that I don't have any excitement for the beginning of baseball season. There is really nothing to look forward to this year, in my opinion.

Anyway, enjoy: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/20265/al-east-showdown-position-rankings

Who in the hell would rather have Yunel Escobar than JJ Hardy...

Other than that you can't really argue with any of the other Oriole placements. Markakis had a pretty bad year and Jones is definitely not as good as O's fans like to make him out to be.

[Spy Fox]

There's a couple places I could argue but none where I'm fully convinced our player should've been higher.

Strange that they didn't include Jake Arrieta in the SP list at all, despite stating Simon and Tillman as #5 starter candidates when most would say those two have very slim chances of cracking the starting 5. Probably an oversight by the author.

[El Gordo]

I'd give Hardy the edge at SS, I think Reimold could leap frog 2 or 3 above him this year. I'd give Nick the edge on Swisher, and I'd rate Jones and Upton as a wash. Reynolds could go as high as ARoid if he could field an average 3B. He's done it once before, who knows?

[SammyBirdland]

Hopefully Buck hangs this up in the locker room. Should be good motivation.

[kg orioles]

There's a couple places I could argue but none where I'm fully convinced our player should've been higher.

Strange that they didn't include Jake Arrieta in the SP list at all, despite stating Simon and Tillman as #5 starter candidates when most would say those two have very slim chances of cracking the starting 5. Probably an oversight by the author.

I think that shows they didn't do too much research on this.I for one think Arrieta will be much improved this year with the elbow now fixed.

[eb45]

Why is Eric Thames ranked ahead of Nolan Reimold?

Reimold was the second best hitter of the five on that list in 2011 and has the second highest career OPS+ (yes, higher than Crawford). Even if you think Crawford's 2011 wasn't a good predictor of future performance, even if you want to say Gardner is the best defensive player in baseball, even if you think Jennings' September was an aberration, you can't put Eric Thames ahead of Reimold. And you can't just not mention Reimold at all.

Escobar over Hardy is a bit confusing, but well justified.

The Orioles' projected rotation is way, way off, as is the bullpen. Whatever, I guess.

[.500_OR_BETTER]

deleted due to being infracted.

:notworthy:

[LookitsPuck]

I agree with them on:

Catcher
First Base
Third Base
DH
#1 Starter
#3 Starter
#4 Starter
#5 Starter

Disagree on:
Second base (I'd rather have Cano)
Shortstop (I'd rather have Hardy, although it's very much a wash between Escobar and Hardy, IMHO)
Left Field (Rather have Reimold over Thames, but certainly would rather have Gardner, Jennings, and Crawford over Reimold)
Center Field (Rather have Jones over all of them save for Ellsbury)
Right Field (Rather have Markakis over Swisher AND Joyce, although I'd most certainly rather have Bautista out of all of them)
#2 (Rather have Britton over Kuroda and Morrow, IMHO)
Bullpen (Would rather have Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, then Orioles...)

The bullpen is too early to tell, because it's not by any means set in stone, yet.

Intangibles is the stupidest thing ever, IMHO.

That said, the final outcome is pretty spot on, although I think we should be ranked a bit higher (Maybe in the mid 30's...at the expense of the Blue Jays). That said, it still means we're last, and I think our record is going to dictate similarly.

[Oriolidae85]

I'd give Hardy the edge at SS, I think Reimold could leap frog 2 or 3 above him this year. I'd give Nick the edge on Swisher, and I'd rate Jones and Upton as a wash. Reynolds could go as high as ARoid if he could field an average 3B. He's done it once before, who knows?

Agree with you on Hardy, Reimold and Nick (Markakis)...also consider the 3B rankings off, if you consider injury/age issues. IMO Reynolds will take over the best production outside of a healthy Longoria, if you account for defensive improvement and the likelihood of Arod/Yuk missing a lot of games. Alex Rodriquez should be ranked last, IMO>

[eb45]

Wait. Is it "who would you rather have" or "who will be better in 2011"? Because I don't think anyone would even make any attempt at arguing that they'd rather have Kuroda than Britton.

[Spy Fox]

To all those upset about the Markakis ranking, I had the same initial thought. But look up Swisher and Marakakis' stats over the past three years. Nick S. beat Nick M. in both OPS and WAR in all three of those seasons, and not by particularly close margins.

[crawjo]

I agree with them on:

Catcher
First Base
Third Base
DH
#1 Starter
#3 Starter
#4 Starter
#5 Starter

Disagree on:
Second base (I'd rather have Cano)
Shortstop (I'd rather have Hardy, although it's very much a wash between Escobar and Hardy, IMHO)
Left Field (Rather have Reimold over Thames, but certainly would rather have Gardner, Jennings, and Crawford over Reimold)
Center Field (Rather have Jones over all of them save for Ellsbury)
Right Field (Rather have Markakis over Swisher AND Joyce, although I'd most certainly rather have Bautista out of all of them)
#2 (Rather have Britton over Kuroda and Morrow, IMHO)
Bullpen (Would rather have Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, then Orioles...)

The bullpen is too early to tell, because it's not by any means set in stone, yet.

Intangibles is the stupidest thing ever, IMHO.

That said, the final outcome is pretty spot on, although I think we should be ranked a bit higher (Maybe in the mid 30's...at the expense of the Blue Jays). That said, it still means we're last, and I think our record is going to dictate similarly.

Jones ahead of Granderson? Oof.

[Orioles fanatic]

I rarely agree with ESPN on anything regarding the Orioles, but within a few short months everyone will agree that they hit this one pretty dead on.
Guys, aside from Chen (and the jurys' still out on that one), I see nothing that even raised an eyebrow about what Duquette has added.

The facts that can't be disputed are: We still have Reynolds (who is horrible with the glove) manning 3rd, we never signed even a remotely decent hitter for the cleanup spot, we once again snored when a 1st baseman could have been added, we simply refuse to make a decent effort for a #1 or #2 starter, Reimold isn't much better than Pie in left, Roberts will miss nearly 1/2 of 2012, we still lack a leadoff type, and Scott can no long be looked at as a fall-back plan for anything.

.500 isn't even a realistic goal, and to win last year's 69 games would even surpise me

[.500_OR_BETTER]

I rarely agree with ESPN on anything regarding the Orioles, but within a few short months everyone will agree that they hit this one pretty dead on.
Guys, aside from Chen (and the jurys' still out on that one), I see nothing that even raised an eyebrow about what Duquette has added.

The facts that can't be disputed are: We still have Reynolds (who is horrible with the glove) manning 3rd, we never signed even a remotely decent hitter for the cleanup spot, we once again snored when a 1st baseman could have been added, we simply refuse to make a decent effort for a #1 or #2 starter, Reimold isn't much better than Pie in left, Roberts will miss nearly 1/2 of 2012, we still lack a leadoff type, and Scott can no long be looked at as a fall-back plan for anything.

.500 isn't even a realistic goal, and to win last year's 69 games would even surpise me

You play Reynolds for his bat not his glove. He also has lost a decent amount of weight and is trying to improve his defense...give him a break and let's see what he can do in 2012...

The key is pitching... Reynolds, Reimold, Roberts, and whatever else you spewed out is not going to make this a 69 win club..... It's pitching, pitching, and pitching that makes a winning season.

[Birds of B'more]

Hopefully Buck hangs this up in the locker room. Should be good motivation.

Hopefully it would produce better results than the "motivational" video Buck showed at the beginning of ST last year.

[Robbie D]

Nick Swisher ahead of Nick markakis is utterly ridiculous, complete insanity.

[Tryptamine]

Nick Swisher ahead of Nick markakis is utterly ridiculous, complete insanity.

How is it insane?

Markakis 2009-2011 7.1WAR
Swisher 2009-2011 11.1WAR

Honestly it hasn't been all that close.

Also, Upton doesn't get enough love. Plus defense and plus basestealing speed more than offset the low average.

Jones 2009-2011 7.3WAR
Upton 2009-2011 10.5WAR

Upton has only had one of his last 5 years be under 4 WAR, he's a very underrated player.

[MrOrange82]

How is it insane?

Markakis 2009-2011 7.1WAR
Swisher 2009-2011 11.1WAR

Honestly it hasn't been all that close.

Also, Upton doesn't get enough love. Plus defense and plus basestealing speed more than offset the low average.

Jones 2009-2011 7.3WAR
Upton 2009-2011 10.5WAR

Upton has only had one of his last 5 years be under 4 WAR, he's a very underrated player.

The difference between Jones and Upton in terms of WAR is almost entirely defense. I'll grant that Upton is the more valuable player, but how much more valuable depends on how thoroughly one believes in Jones' (negative) defensive stats.

[Fan4Life]

How is it insane?

Markakis 2009-2011 7.1WAR
Swisher 2009-2011 11.1WAR

Honestly it hasn't been all that close.

Also, Upton doesn't get enough love. Plus defense and plus basestealing speed more than offset the low average.

Jones 2009-2011 7.3WAR
Upton 2009-2011 10.5WAR

Upton has only had one of his last 5 years be under 4 WAR, he's a very underrated player.

Defensive metrics are not reliable.


The difference between Jones and Upton in terms of WAR is almost entirely defense. I'll grant that Upton is the more valuable player, but how much more valuable depends on how thoroughly one believes in Jones' (negative) defensive stats.

What he said.

[33rdst]

Whatever. Who picked the Diamondbacks in 2011? Or the Tigers in 2006? or Tampa in 2008? For that matter, who didn't pick the Red So
last year?

Let's go play.

[Tryptamine]

You're right, defensive metrics are not as reliable as offensive metrics, but to completely discount them is asinine. Defensive metrics can be a fluke from year to year, but when the same results show up time after time then it's simply reality. I'll take numbers grounded in logic over the eye test each and every time. By those standards I can call Hanley a great defensive SS because my eye says all the numbers lie. There's no real factual basis.

[TiredofLosing20]

This article is utterly depressing but not surprising. Its hard to argue too much with this analysis. The one positive is that there is uncertainty with many of the players they list (Reimold, Davis, Wada, Chen, Britton, 2b, and even Jones to some extent. Its not like its a team of 33 year olds that are rated this low. Of course this positive is tempered by the fact that Tampa is just as young and they are way ahead of us.

[33rdst]

You're right, defensive metrics are not as reliable as offensive metrics, but to completely discount them is asinine. Defensive metrics can be a fluke from year to year, but when the same results show up time after time then it's simply reality. I'll take numbers grounded in logic over the eye test each and every time. By those standards I can call Hanley a great defensive SS because my eye says all the numbers lie. There's no real factual basis.

WAR uses UZR in determining defensive value. UZR excludes important information in its calculations,such as line drives to infielders. It also excludes other essential player abilities, like arm strength, that determine much of a players defensive value. If a metric doesn't measure the essential variables is it worth paying attention to?

[DrungoHazewood]

WAR uses UZR in determining defensive value. UZR excludes important information in its calculations,such as line drives to infielders. It also excludes other essential player abilities, like arm strength, that determine much of a players defensive value. If a metric doesn't measure the essential variables is it worth paying attention to?

I think it's good to have a healthy skepticism about most everything. But let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. If you don't believe in UZR, what's your alternative ranking method? Scouts? Observations? The Fan's Scouting report lists BJ Upton as being 27 runs better than Adam Jones over the last three years. The Upton/Jones rankings seem to be a place where UZR, the other advanced metrics, and subjective observation coincide.

Similarly, if you zero out defense for both Swisher and Markakis, Swisher is still ahead over the past three years. Just to get Markakis even you'd have to conclude that UZR (and the other metrics) weren't just wrong, but their rankings of these two were completely backwards.

[Fan4Life]

I rarely agree with ESPN on anything regarding the Orioles, but within a few short months everyone will agree that they hit this one pretty dead on.
Guys, aside from Chen (and the jurys' still out on that one), I see nothing that even raised an eyebrow about what Duquette has added.

The facts that can't be disputed are: We still have Reynolds (who is horrible with the glove) manning 3rd, we never signed even a remotely decent hitter for the cleanup spot, we once again snored when a 1st baseman could have been added, we simply refuse to make a decent effort for a #1 or #2 starter, Reimold isn't much better than Pie in left, Roberts will miss nearly 1/2 of 2012, we still lack a leadoff type, and Scott can no long be looked at as a fall-back plan for anything.

.500 isn't even a realistic goal, and to win last year's 69 games would even surpise me

zzzz zzzzzz zzzzz zzzzzz

[atomic]

This article is utterly depressing but not surprising. Its hard to argue too much with this analysis. The one positive is that there is uncertainty with many of the players they list (Reimold, Davis, Wada, Chen, Britton, 2b, and even Jones to some extent. Its not like its a team of 33 year olds that are rated this low. Of course this positive is tempered by the fact that Tampa is just as young and they are way ahead of us.

And from what I have heard if you were ranking prospects tampa would have twenty in the list before we had 5. The team is awful and nothing done to improve it. Everyone knows it. Picking the Orioles for fifth in the east is as close to a sure thing as there is in baseball.

[NCRaven]

For me, the worst part is the pitching projections. We are last or near last in every slot of the rotation and bullpen. You can point at the lineup and see Wieters and Hardy at or near the top of their respective positions. Jones, Davis and Reimold all have some projection remaining and a chance to improve. Markakis is a solid player, if not the perennial All-Star we hoped he'd become. Reynolds is what he is - a power hitter with no good defensive position who doesn't want to DH. Betemit is a role player. And, we don't know who will play second base - my hope is that Antonelli becomes the player everyone thought he'd be as a prospect.

But it all comes back to the pitching. Will any of them get close to their ceilings? Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, and Hunter have all shown flashes of what we are looking for, but none have done so for anything like a prolonged period. If they do, the future is brighter than we might have thought. If not, welcome to another year of Orioles (post '97 version) baseball.

[JayThomas]

I'd give Hardy the edge at SS, I think Reimold could leap frog 2 or 3 above him this year. I'd give Nick the edge on Swisher, and I'd rate Jones and Upton as a wash. Reynolds could go as high as ARoid if he could field an average 3B. He's done it once before, who knows?

I agree with El Gordo here. Reimold and Reynolds could produce a lot higher than these rankings if they play average defense and do what they've done in the past at the plate.

[PaulFolk]

Wait. Is it "who would you rather have" or "who will be better in 2011"? Because I don't think anyone would even make any attempt at arguing that they'd rather have Kuroda than Britton.

2011 already happened :)

But to answer your question, it's who will be better this year, not long term.

[GoldGlove21]

So the article says that we have the least amount of talent/production and our record shows that we have the least amount of production. Seems logical to me, but although you could remove upside in these rankings, it is not something I would do.