View Full Version : Jeremy Guthrie's Second start
Was switching the channels last night and saw Jeremy Guthrie on the mound against the Giants in the 3rd or 4th inning. The score read Rockies 6 and Giants 0. Now Jeremy Guthrie is a standup guy, as far as I know, and I always liked how he carried himself and spoke. BUT, I said to myself, wouldn't it be funny (not haha) if Guthrie didn't take advantage of this run support. I mentioned once before that I always had the feeling that Guthrie pitched just well enough to lose and when he did get some run support that it felt like he would give the runs back. Stats might not support that but it was just a feeling I had.
Well, don't you know, two seconds after watching the game, he gives up back to back homeruns. I switch the channel and come back and see the score is now 6-4 and Guthrie is already being lifted. I'm not sure what my point is exactly, except that people who were down on Hammel and this trade might have to rethink it at some point.
SammyBirdland
04-12-2012, 08:02 AM
Coors Field is a bad place to be when you're as susceptible to the home run as Guts is.
Just saw the score on that one -- CR 17, SF 8 :eek:
Mr Snuffleupagus
04-12-2012, 09:20 AM
Guthrie allowed six earned on nine hits and two walks over 3 1/3 innings. He gave up back-to-back homers in the fourth and struck out just one. His ERA after two starts is at 7.84.
Spotted 6runs against Lincecum and gave them all back. Didn't factor in the decision.
Ooooooohhhh!!!!
04-12-2012, 09:37 AM
I mentioned once before that I always had the feeling that Guthrie pitched just well enough to lose and when he did get some run support that it felt like he would give the runs back. Stats might not support that but it was just a feeling I had.
I'm not sure what my point is exactly, except that people who were down on Hammel and this trade might have to rethink it at some point.
I used to have that same feeling about Guthrie. I would love to see some data on that.
I got the impression people didn't think it was a bad trade from a value standpoint. I think the bigger issue was that we didn't get younger players. It was similar to the Koji trade in that sense. Both of those trades may make us better in the short term; unfortunately it's improving us when we're not contenders.
Mr Snuffleupagus
04-12-2012, 09:52 AM
I used to have that same feeling about Guthrie. I would love to see some data on that.
I got the impression people didn't think it was a bad trade from a value standpoint. I think the bigger issue was that we didn't get younger players. It was similar to the Koji trade in that sense. Both of those trades may make us better in the short term; unfortunately it's improving us when we're not contenders.
Yes and No. Tommy Hunter still has 2yrs of service time left, he looks like a league average pitcher, and is probably someone we could extend if he proves effective this season. Same goes for Jason Hammel. I think people assume we're going to let these guys walk once their contracts are up. I think we're finally at a point with the level of talent we have that we should be looking to lock up pieces we want on our roster come 2014 (the Bundy/ Machado years). At some point, you need to look to lock up the talent you have, instead of trading that talent for more talent to trade later.
royalstillman
04-12-2012, 09:55 AM
It's a Gut feeling.
Frobby
04-12-2012, 10:18 AM
Well, at least Guthrie is getting run support. He has a 7.84 ERA and is 1-0. The Rockies have scored 22 runs in his two starts. Last year the Orioles scored 18 runs total in Guthrie's first 9 starts. So, he's exceeded that in 2 games.
Sports Guy
04-12-2012, 10:25 AM
Was switching the channels last night and saw Jeremy Guthrie on the mound against the Giants in the 3rd or 4th inning. The score read Rockies 6 and Giants 0. Now Jeremy Guthrie is a standup guy, as far as I know, and I always liked how he carried himself and spoke. BUT, I said to myself, wouldn't it be funny (not haha) if Guthrie didn't take advantage of this run support. I mentioned once before that I always had the feeling that Guthrie pitched just well enough to lose and when he did get some run support that it felt like he would give the runs back. Stats might not support that but it was just a feeling I had.
Well, don't you know, two seconds after watching the game, he gives up back to back homeruns. I switch the channel and come back and see the score is now 6-4 and Guthrie is already being lifted. I'm not sure what my point is exactly, except that people who were down on Hammel and this trade might have to rethink it at some point.
Why? Its the same thing as the Koji trade.
I would have preferred higher ceiling, younger and cheaper players.
Now, we may be fortunate that Lindstrom and Hammel get us those players anyway but we will have to see on that one.
It wasn't really an awful trade in terms of value for value. Its just, what would you have preferred back in the deal?
Lucky Jim
04-12-2012, 10:54 AM
Why? Its the same thing as the Koji trade.
I would have preferred higher ceiling, younger and cheaper players.
Now, we may be fortunate that Lindstrom and Hammel get us those players anyway but we will have to see on that one.
It wasn't really an awful trade in terms of value for value. Its just, what would you have preferred back in the deal?
Who wouldn't? Is there any information indicating younger, higher-upside players were available?
Sports Guy
04-12-2012, 10:57 AM
Who wouldn't? Is there any information indicating younger, higher-upside players were available?
No..doesn't mean that wasn't the case.
Also doesn't mean it wouldn't have been the case had we held onto Guthrie and waited a little longer.
Angels have said they want another starter.
Why? Its the same thing as the Koji trade.
I would have preferred higher ceiling, younger and cheaper players.
Now, we may be fortunate that Lindstrom and Hammel get us those players anyway but we will have to see on that one.
It wasn't really an awful trade in terms of value for value. Its just, what would you have preferred back in the deal?
There were posters who argued it was a bad trade strictly from a value standpoint. That's who I was addressing.
allstar1579
04-12-2012, 11:17 AM
There were posters who argued it was a bad trade strictly from a value standpoint. That's who I was addressing.
Two starts does not determine value. Thats like saying Dylan should be in AA after 6 innings.
Frobby
04-12-2012, 11:23 AM
Two starts does not determine value. Thats like saying Dylan should be in AA after 6 innings.
Yeah -- we all know that Dylan should be in Baltimore's rotation, not in AA. :D
allstar1579
04-12-2012, 11:25 AM
Yeah -- we all know that Dylan should be in Baltimore's rotation, not in AA. :D
Well played sir, well played.
Two starts does not determine value. Thats like saying Dylan should be in AA after 6 innings.
I'm not sure what my point is exactly, except that people who were down on Hammel and this trade might have to rethink it at some point.
That's what I said. I don't think I"m taking a hard stand here. The opinion is based on what I felt before the trade and not two starts. It's based on Hammels three years in Colorado and Guthrie's last 3 here. The fact that Hammel has looked better than what I expected (his stuff) and Guthrie will be under the same tough conditions that Hammel dealt with in Colorado, just reinforces what I felt. Two starts doesn't mean much, it's true.
allstar1579
04-12-2012, 11:28 AM
I'm not sure what my point is exactly, except that people who were down on Hammel and this trade might have to rethink it at some point.
That's what I said. I don't think I"m taking a hard stand here. The opinion is based on what I felt before the trade and not two starts. It's based on Hammels three years in Colorado and Guthrie's last 3 here. The fact that Hammel has looked better than what I expected (his stuff) and Guthrie will be under the same tough conditions that Hammel dealt with in Colorado, just reinforces what I felt. Two starts doesn't mean much, it's true.
Ok then, good point, carry on. :)
Lucky Jim
04-12-2012, 11:33 AM
Ok then, good point, carry on. :)
Colorado is a more difficult place to pitch in than Camden. I think the AL East issue has merit, but not sure why we're worried about OPACY. One thing to note is that Colorado is off-the-charts high for LD park factor, while Camden seems to suppress the issue. Hammel has had an elevated LD% the last few years, and the Orioles may think that they get a context-bump in performance from that alone, w/o any tweaking. Colorado also suppresses K%, and performance similar to 2009-2010 could theoretically result in a very respectable 8ish K/9.
One of the reasons I imagine the K-rate is suppressed is atmospheric. Hammel has two above-average to plus- pitches - his curve and slider. Both are negatively impacted in Colorado. Not all pitchers (especially those who can command a plus-fastball) are going to take the same hit in that park, but Hammel may have been a particularly poor fit, all things considered. This issue may be exacerbated a bit by the fact that, according to scouting reports I've read, Hammel likes to go to his breaking pitches with two strikes.
So far, so good. Obviously, I hope Hammel continues to pitch well, as I really love being right, particularly if it means the O's were, too.
Adding that two-seamer can't hurt, either.
Sports Guy
04-12-2012, 12:32 PM
There were posters who argued it was a bad trade strictly from a value standpoint. That's who I was addressing.
Oh ok...Yea, I don't see that as much.
Personally, i am glad we took a chance on Hammel.
I look at this deal very similar to the Koji deal. Getting Hunter and Hammel was fine..would have just liked that second player to be a younger, cheaper player with some upside.
CA-ORIOLE
04-12-2012, 12:40 PM
Guthrie was an on the edge of his peripherals pitcher three years ago and things have only gotten worse with his age, reduced FB velocity and loss of that drop off the table slider that made him effective back then. Not to mention his salary. Those believing that Guthrie was going to gain a good/top prospect or was going to gain a good/top prospect if we had only kept him longer are seriously deluded imo. I think DD did well to get what he got at this point and I have generally liked the job Guthrie did eating innings and competing in the AL East.
DrungoHazewood
04-12-2012, 12:41 PM
I'm not sure what my point is exactly, except that people who were down on Hammel and this trade might have to rethink it at some point.
I've always been in favor of making acquistions based on players' abilities to manipulate karma and luck.
I've always been in favor of making acquistions based on players' abilities to manipulate karma and luck.
I know there is some humor in there somewhere. If it's a shot, you'll probably need to spell it out for me.
LookinUp
04-12-2012, 01:14 PM
Yes and No. Tommy Hunter still has 2yrs of service time left, he looks like a league average pitcher, and is probably someone we could extend if he proves effective this season. Same goes for Jason Hammel. I think people assume we're going to let these guys walk once their contracts are up. I think we're finally at a point with the level of talent we have that we should be looking to lock up pieces we want on our roster come 2014 (the Bundy/ Machado years). At some point, you need to look to lock up the talent you have, instead of trading that talent for more talent to trade later.
Mr. S, I think you make good points here. SG, IMO, looks at every trade as a necessity to pick up high upside, young guys. However, teams aren't built only on those guys. You need solid #4/5 starters, live arms in the bullpen, etc. When they're available, and when it's highly unlikely that you'll get any high upside guy (with any sort of decent probabilities), I think you have accomplished something. Maybe we could have gotten more a couple of years ago, but I find it pretty doubtful we'd have gotten more before August 1 of this year.
Why? Its the same thing as the Koji trade.
I would have preferred higher ceiling, younger and cheaper players.
Now, we may be fortunate that Lindstrom and Hammel get us those players anyway but we will have to see on that one.
It wasn't really an awful trade in terms of value for value. Its just, what would you have preferred back in the deal?
The Koji trade brought back a serviceable young starting pitcher and a very live AAA/ML arm. At worst, IMO, the Guthrie trade brought back a player similar to Guthrie + one extra year to re-sign/trade him + younger age.
If were always relying on a MiL player with decent upside, we must recognize that those guys have lower probabilities to succeed than the ML pieces we got back. We clearly need stars, but we also clearly need average players as well. I really like both trades, and I did back then.
olehippi
04-12-2012, 01:22 PM
I liked Guthrie because I always felt he gave you everything he had whenever he pitched. But as much as I liked him, I think the trade for Hammel and Lindstrom was a good trade for both the players involved and for the teams. Guthrie got a much needed change of scenery, and the Orioles got a legitimate, and younger, ML starter in return, plus a solid, hard-throwing reliever. I just don't see any reason to complain....especially about hypothetical trade scenarios.
Sports Guy
04-12-2012, 02:33 PM
The Koji trade brought back a serviceable young starting pitcher and a very live AAA/ML arm. At worst, IMO, the Guthrie trade brought back a player similar to Guthrie + one extra year to re-sign/trade him + younger age.
If were always relying on a MiL player with decent upside, we must recognize that those guys have lower probabilities to succeed than the ML pieces we got back. We clearly need stars, but we also clearly need average players as well. I really like both trades, and I did back then.No it didn't.
dan-O
04-12-2012, 02:36 PM
Watching the condensed version of this game now. Still has 95-96 MPH heater.... and a case of middle-itus. Colorado really should have targeted a non-flyball pitcher. Best of luck to Guts, though.
mikegallo
04-12-2012, 02:40 PM
We all knew this was a slam dunk trade from the get go. Hammel is an ace and Guthrie can't help but lose 15 games a year. :vader:
Mr Snuffleupagus
04-12-2012, 02:42 PM
No it didn't.
What's your beef SG? Last I checked, Chris Davis was living and had arms. Two of em actually. ;)
Anyone see Guthrie got to pinch run today? Haha, he loves that