Wild Bill.....Hearing anything????

[bigbird]

Haven;t heard anything in 2 weeks...Are you hearing anything different than Belkast or myself?

[Belkast]

Yes I would be interested in knowing if your info compares to the things BB and I have been told.

[Sports Guy]

Are you guys hearing anything? BB, start this thread for any "hidden purproses"? :)

[Belkast]

Are you guys hearing anything? BB, start this thread for any "hidden purproses"? :)



BB and I are hearing pretty much the same stuff. FWIW I think a couple of moves are right around the corner.

[boulware0]

Anything significant or just minor moves before ST starts?

[Belkast]

Lets see if WB has heard the same info. If he is hearing the same stuff then I would think the moves are more likely to happen.

[clapdiddy]

Are you guys out here starting trouble again?:002_ssuprised:

Are you guys hearing something big....or just a couple of little moves?

Tell me...I gotta know!!:eek:

[Sports Guy]

Lets see if WB has heard the same info. If he is hearing the same stuff then I would think the moves are more likely to happen.


Hidalgo signing i have to think is one thing.

Javy and/or Matos deal?

[clapdiddy]

Hidalgo signing i have to think is one thing.

Javy and/or Matos deal?
I'd love to see us move Javy and/or Matos, but I doubt that's going to happen.

I'm on the fence about Hidalgo. He's OK....but doesn't do enough to offer him a guaranteed contract.

[MP]

Is there a deadline for deals, or can activity continue into spring training?

[BigWilly1231]

Is there a deadline for deals, or can activity continue into spring training?

trading deadline

[MP]

trading deadline

If I asked when that was, would you say "soon"?

[BigWilly1231]

If I asked when that was, would you say "soon"?

most likely, sorry its just been one of those days.

[Wild Bill]

Haven;t heard anything in 2 weeks...Are you hearing anything different than Belkast or myself?

Major "dark clouds" over Tejada. A big trade could be in the works. "could" is the word, don't take it farther than that.

[BaltBird 24]

If I asked when that was, would you say "soon"?

Soon like July 31st.

[TyCobb]

Oh wow that is interesting especially since Dunn is signed for 2 years now.

[belangerules]

Hmmm, thanks for the update. I guess Miguel's taken the pressure off and some deals have now become plausible.

[Sports Guy]

Major "dark clouds" over Tejada. A big trade could be in the works. "could" is the word, don't take it farther than that.


As in, dark clouds have passed and opened things up or the dark cloud is still with us because of Miggy and HE may be dealt?

[Jagwar]

Major "dark clouds" over Tejada. A big trade could be in the works. "could" is the word, don't take it farther than that.

BB, is this the sort of info you hoped to "extract" from WB? You made it sound like a couple of moves that brought in minor pieces. WB mentions that Miggy still ain't happy, and a big move is looming.

Man, I can't take much more of this.

[WietersCorner]

WildBill did not really introduce a new idea. I mean i doubt Miggy is moved but there always is the possibility.

[ShoelesJoe]

Major "dark clouds" over Tejada. A big trade could be in the works. "could" is the word, don't take it farther than that.

My guess is Tuesday's Post article on Miggy didn't sit well with the powers that be. When your star player behaves like he's in constant need of burping it's probably time to cut your losses. If they can pry some prospects away from the Angels this whole dung heap could start smelling like roses.

[Odenton O]

Major "dark clouds" over Tejada. A big trade could be in the works. "could" is the word, don't take it farther than that.

I swear, Wild Bill is like the James Joyce of OH posters. ;) This could mean, like, six different things.

[JakeeO]

I hope miguel's not about to get into some big-time trouble... He did spend a lot of time in that post article talking about b-12, and his being natural, and his lawyer according to the story wanted him to shut up.

[letgoflyers5]

I can't believe we are back at this point with Miggy again and I am one of his biggest fans but this constant distraction may finally have to stop via a trade of him to another team.

[TinCup]

I swear, Wild Bill is like the James Joyce of OH posters. ;) This could mean, like, six different things.

sure, could mean many things, but when was the last time, any time for that matter that someone used the expression 'dark clouds hanging over' to describe something good/happy????

[lorenbaker]

Lopez will be traded at All Star break for nice Prospect(s) or experienced player because:

1. He will have fresh legs for catching from being DH/1B (big reason)

2. The lax play at DH will up his power numbers

3. Some catcher around the league is bound to get hurt

4. The Angels are probably instructing their base runners to take out Molina the first chance they get, which is dumb since Zaun is a much better catcher

5. Teams do stupid things around the All Star Break

6. He'll stop his whining and become part of the Orioles 2006 Dream Club Houe and be considered a veteran leader.

7. Ozzie Guillen won't take him cause he doesn't want any fat panzies on the team.

[Hank Scorpio]

I think we could get a whole lot more for Tejada at the break, might as well take a stab for the first 3 months and see where we are in July. I can't believe this crap is still floating around.

[section34]

At this point, the Orioles are better off going into the season with what they have. If Miggy becomes a problem, trade him down the stretch when a team will offer more to make a serious push for the World Series. Right now, the O's won't get as smuch as they will in July. This also gives Miggy a chance to come back around. I think he does deserve a chance here but its wearing thin.

The biggest "thing" here is our pitching staff, if it comes around, which it very well could, we could contend. If the pitching is mediocre, we'll finish below .500. Miggy's attitude will come down to how our pitching does. So really, Miggy's irrelevant except for how he could encourage the pitchers to rise to a higher level with a positive attitude. If the pitching's good, we'll be good. If the pitching's mediocre, we'll be mediocre. Its ashame Miggy can't just play his ass off and shutup. Even if our pitching is mediocre this year, we have Loewen, Penn, and Johnson who could develop in 2 years plus we could sign some FA's next year. The point is, we can content soon and while Miggy's under contract. He doesn't understand this. He's hurting our chances, not helping them.

[Belkast]

WB-

My guy has told me there is one team that has been in steady contact with us about Miggy all along. Have you heard this as well? My gut feeling says we will not be trading Miggy but my guy said that this team is making it hard not to listen.


Are you aware of us signing an OF, and trading for another pitcher? Of course if we get a pitcher one of our guys go, have you heard RLopez name being mentioned?

[erb8472]

WB-

My guy has told me there is one team that has been in steady contact with us about Miggy all along. Have you heard this as well? My gut feeling says we will not be trading Miggy but my guy said that this team is making it hard not to listen.


Are you aware of us signing an OF, and trading for another pitcher? Of course if we get a pitcher one of our guys go, have you heard RLopez name being mentioned?

I would have to guess that one team would probally be the Chicago Cubs. The OF Hidalgo, and now that I think about it I'd say the pitcher is from Boston, Clement Perhaps.

[The Goob]

WB-

My guy has told me there is one team that has been in steady contact with us about Miggy all along. Have you heard this as well? My gut feeling says we will not be trading Miggy but my guy said that this team is making it hard not to listen.


Are you aware of us signing an OF, and trading for another pitcher? Of course if we get a pitcher one of our guys go, have you heard RLopez name being mentioned?

Could you at least tell us if it is an AL or NL team? What do you believe the chance is thay Miggy starts at SS on opening day? 50%?

[Belkast]

Could you at least tell us if it is an AL or NL team? What do you believe the chance is thay Miggy starts at SS on opening day? 50%?



As I have said my gut feeling says Miggy won't be traded.

[Ruzious]

These threads are always like train wrecks. We're compelled to read, but... there's blood everywhere from people banging their heads on their computer screens.

[MP]

Soon like July 31st.

Thanks BaltBird

[RZNJ]

I don't get WildBill's cryptic post. Maybe he's just predicting rain in the Domincan Republic.

[ShoelesJoe]

Right now, the O's won't get as smuch as they will in July.

If Tejada spends the first half of '06 hitting like he did the last half of '05 then we're in a world of hurt, and won't be able to give him away. If another team is offering fair value in prospects right now then we should be listening hard.

[Sports Guy]

This is very interesting....If you guys are hearing Tejada's name AND hearing we are going after another starter, could a deal be in the works sending us Cedeno and Prior?

[Sports Guy]

Section 34...I think the consensus is you get more for positional players in the offseason and more for pitching at the deadline. This is why Melvin did not want to trade Overbay last July.

[Sports Guy]

It is also interesting that Mora's extension is not done yet. A foregone conclusion a few weeks ago has drug on now. Perhaps this Miggy stuff is holding it up? Maybe they do not extend MelMo if they decide to trade Miggy?

[Belkast]

This is very interesting....If you guys are hearing Tejada's name AND hearing we are going after another starter, could a deal be in the works sending us Cedeno and Prior?



No I don't think so. BB and I were trrying to sort things out last night and I took a guess of Clement for RLopez. I'm not sure if that will even happen but the Bosox seem to want to move Clement and I KNOW that we would like to move RLopez. Just my opinion...

[Belkast]

It is also interesting that Mora's extension is not done yet. A foregone conclusion a few weeks ago has drug on now. Perhaps this Miggy stuff is holding it up? Maybe they do not extend MelMo if they decide to trade Miggy?


No I think you are reading into that too much. Mora will have a new deal very soon.

[Sports Guy]

No I don't think so. BB and I were trrying to sort things out last night and I took a guess of Clement for RLopez. I'm not sure if that will even happen but the Bosox seem to want to move Clement and I KNOW that we would like to move RLopez. Just my opinion...


If we want to move Rlo so bad, how come we don't trade him and than go out and get a Clement or Lohse in a seperate deal?

[Belkast]

If we want to move Rlo so bad, how come we don't trade him and than go out and get a Clement or Lohse in a seperate deal?


Well anything is possible. The reason I suggested Rlopez to Boston for Clement is because I would think Boston would love to have him. If my thinking is correct Rlopez does pretty well against the Bosox and I think Boston would be happy not to have to face him anymore.

I can't figure out why on earth that the Bosox are so unhappy with Clement. I think the guy is a valuable pitcher and I for one would be ecstatic to have him on the O's.

[erb8472]

If we want to move Rlo so bad, how come we don't trade him and than go out and get a Clement or Lohse in a seperate deal?

I would ok with a Lopez for Clement type deal. However, I thought the Red Sox wanted to trade Clement because of a logjam of Starters.

Another name that might be possible is Pavano.

[erb8472]

I can't figure out why on earth that the Bosox are so unhappy with Clement. I think the guy is a valuable pitcher and I for one would be ecstatic to have him on the O's.

Same here Belkast.

A rotation of:

Clement, Benson, Chen, Bedard, Cabrera sounds pretty good to me.

[RZNJ]

No I don't think so. BB and I were trrying to sort things out last night and I took a guess of Clement for RLopez. I'm not sure if that will even happen but the Bosox seem to want to move Clement and I KNOW that we would like to move RLopez. Just my opinion...


Would you say the primary reason is?

1. Boras
2. The fact that he took them to arbitration
3. Not happy with his pitching
4. Other reason

[Belkast]

I would ok with a Lopez for Clement type deal. However, I thought the Red Sox wanted to trade Clement because of a logjam of Starters.

Another name that might be possible is Pavano.


I would pass on Pavano. Let the Yanks enjoy his contract for the full term.:002_ssmile:

[Belkast]

Would you say the primary reason is?

1. Boras
2. The fact that he took them to arbitration
3. Not happy with his pitching
4. Other reason


Without a doubt......BORAS

[erb8472]

Belkast I have to think that you and Bigbird were hearing something more than just the typical move that would occur before spring training. If so, I hope it happens, because it could give us a boost going into the start of camp.

[erb8472]

I would pass on Pavano. Let the Yanks enjoy his contract for the full term.:002_ssmile:

I would as well, however the Yanks are always willing to eat money.

[RZNJ]

Originally Posted by Belkast
I can't figure out why on earth that the Bosox are so unhappy with Clement. I think the guy is a valuable pitcher and I for one would be ecstatic to have him on the O's.

I like Clement a little better than RLo but you could make a case that it's a wash and RLo is much cheaper. The Red Sox want to deal him because he had a 5.72 ERA after the AB, they owe him 19 M the next two years, and they have an excess of starters at the moment, assuming Paplebon is slated for the rotation and Wells is not traded.

[RZNJ]

Without a doubt......BORAS


Then I would assume it's highly unlikely the O's trade for a Boras player or sign a Boras FA. Wouldn't that make sense?

[Hank Scorpio]

Without a doubt......BORAS

Of course. That makes perfect sense, I just hope that he doesn't go anywhere w/out someone else coming in.

I have to think we go to spring training as is.

[RZNJ]

Corey Patterson, Bruce Chen, and Ramon Hernandez (did he change to Boras before or after his deal with the O's?) are all listed as having Boras as their agent. If they have such a problem with Boras then I'd be skeptical of an extension for Chen (who's a FA after this year).

[Belkast]

Then I would assume it's highly unlikely the O's trade for a Boras player or sign a Boras FA. Wouldn't that make sense?



That would depend on how many years a said player would be under our control.

[Belkast]

Corey Patterson, Bruce Chen, and Ramon Hernandez (did he change to Boras before or after his deal with the O's?) are all listed as having Boras as their agent. If they have such a problem with Boras then I'd be skeptical of an extension for Chen (who's a FA after this year).



Depends on the demands. I think Rlopez will probably be looking for a deal somewhere in the 4/40 area.

[Belkast]

I like Clement a little better than RLo but you could make a case that it's a wash and RLo is much cheaper. The Red Sox want to deal him because he had a 5.72 ERA after the AB, they owe him 19 M the next two years, and they have an excess of starters at the moment, assuming Paplebon is slated for the rotation and Wells is not traded.


JMO, but I think Clement would benefit greatly under Mazzone.

[Ruzious]

Is it wrong to guess that the Cubs might be the team that's been somewhat persistent in Miggy trade talks?

[RZNJ]

Depends on the demands. I think Rlopez will probably be looking for a deal somewhere in the 4/40 area.

I mentioned that exact figure as something Boras might demand if RLo has a good year, but another year like 2005 and teams will just laugh at him. Look at Jeff Weaver.

[Belkast]

Is it wrong to guess that the Cubs might be the team that's been somewhat persistent in Miggy trade talks?


I have never confirmed which team is still talking to us. I've tried but my guy is being pretty tight lipped on which team it is. I know Houston had a good offer at one time so if I were a betting man my guess is it would be them.


Please don't mistake me as saying Miggy will be traded because as I have said my gut feeling says he stays. Now if someone is going to blow us a way with an offer then.....bye bye Miggy.

[Ruzious]

Depends on the demands. I think Rlopez will probably be looking for a deal somewhere in the 4/40 area.
Pardon me as I try to screw back my eyes in my eye sockets. Gulp.

Thanks for the honest answer on my question.

[Belkast]

Pardon me as I try to screw back my eyes in my eye sockets. Gulp.

Thanks for the honest answer on my question.



If he has a good year he probably will get it.

[birdtown]

If we offer arbitration to R-LO and he signs with someone next year....do you think we get compensated for him being an "A" player?

If so....I say keep him this year...offer the arbitration next year.....and get some more picks to stock the farm

[Jules]

Belkast...you have killed my productivity today! I think Petitte, Everett, and Lidge would blow us away.

Thanks for the info.

[clapdiddy]

Belkast...you have killed my productivity today! I think Petitte, Everett, and Lidge would blow us away.

Thanks for the info.
I would love to have Petitte, and I think Everett and Lidge are good, but Petitte is a FA at the end of this season, and I've seen some blurbs that he may want to go back to the Yankees.

I don't think we're a good match with Houston. Now, If they would offer Oswalt and Everett....that may be a different story.

[Ruzious]

If we offer arbitration to R-LO and he signs with someone next year....do you think we get compensated for him being an "A" player?

If so....I say keep him this year...offer the arbitration next year.....and get some more picks to stock the farm
Billy Beane and I agree. Of course, whether or not he gets "A" player status depends on how he does this season.

[Belkast]

Belkast...you have killed my productivity today! I think Petitte, Everett, and Lidge would blow us away.

Thanks for the info.



Sorry about that......NOW GET TO WORK!:002_sbiggrin:

[Sports Guy]

We should just trade Rlo now. He is still cheap enough where i woudl think alot of teams would like to have him.

[Ruzious]

I would love to have Petitte, and I think Everett and Lidge are good, but Petitte is a FA at the end of this season, and I've seen some blurbs that he may want to go back to the Yankees.

I don't think we're a good match with Houston. Now, If they would offer Oswalt and Everett....that may be a different story.
The negative on Lidge - he's going to end up demanding big money, and if we weren't going to offer it to Ryan, my assumption would be we wouldn't be willing to offer it to Lidge.

But ya know - you're idea of Oswalt and Everett - I like that a lot. But I'm a big Everett fan, and I'd guess 98% of the posters here would NOT want him - because his offensive numbers have not been good.

[pdiddy]

Belkast...you have killed my productivity today! I think Petitte, Everett, and Lidge would blow us away.

Thanks for the info.

I've been a fan of that proposal every time I've seen it. My problem with it now is who is going to hit the ball? The offensive drop from Miggy to Everett is huge and we've lost the opportunity to get a big bat in the lineup.

[RZNJ]

The negative on Lidge - he's going to end up demanding big money, and if we weren't going to offer it to Ryan, my assumption would be we wouldn't be willing to offer it to Lidge.

But ya know - you're idea of Oswalt and Everett - I like that a lot. But I'm a big Everett fan, and I'd guess 98% of the posters here would NOT want him - because his offensive numbers have not been good.


I can't see Oswalt coming in any deal. Pettite is a FA after this year and Clemens might not be around this year or next. The Stros can't afford to trade Oswalt.

[Ruzious]

We should just trade Rlo now. He is still cheap enough where i woudl think alot of teams would like to have him.
I wouldn't do that unless we know we have someone to replace him. I think that's basically why we have the Javy problem. By signing Hernandez, we gave away our hand - teams knew we were in a bind to trade Javy, so his value drops. If we trade RLo without having another pitcher lined up, then we tip our hand again, and teams know we're desperate for a starting pitcher - so the asking price shoots up.

[Ruzious]

I can't see Oswalt coming in any deal. Pettite is a FA after this year and Clemens might not be around this year or next. The Stros can't afford to trade Oswalt.
Throw in RLo? Actually, I think you're right.

[davearm]

This is very interesting....If you guys are hearing Tejada's name AND hearing we are going after another starter, could a deal be in the works sending us Cedeno and Prior?
No thank you on Prior+Cedeno for Tejada. That would be a very bad deal for the Cubs.

[RZNJ]

No thank you on Prior+Cedeno for Tejada. That would be a very bad deal for the Cubs.


What would you say the odds are for you and SportsGuy to ever agree on a Cubs/Orioles deal?

[davearm]

I have never confirmed which team is still talking to us. I've tried but my guy is being pretty tight lipped on which team it is. I know Houston had a good offer at one time so if I were a betting man my guess is it would be them.


Please don't mistake me as saying Miggy will be traded because as I have said my gut feeling says he stays. Now if someone is going to blow us a way with an offer then.....bye bye Miggy.
Houston and CHC both make a lot of sense.

Hendry has a reputation for being aggressive/persistent, and it's clear he has a lot of interest, plus pitching/prospects to spend.

Houston is in desperate need of more offense, and Tejada would fit the bill perfectly.

It also figures that the O's preference would be to deal with an NL club, all else being equal.

[davearm]

What would you say the odds are for you and SportsGuy to ever agree on a Cubs/Orioles deal?
What do you say the odds of him becoming realistic are?

(Kidding. Mostly. ;))

[erb8472]

What do you say the odds of him becoming realistic are?

(Kidding. Mostly. ;))

I dont understand how a deal of Prior and Cedeno is not fair value for Tejada.

[hoosiers]

I love the speculation of this thread, but it feels kind of strange to re-visit where we left of on all the Miggy stuff - especially since we have acquired a decent starter in Benson since then.

The usual suspects were the Cubs and BoSox, but I think you could put together a scenario where half the league is involved. For example, would the As flip Crosby + a lot of other for Tejada? We also heard the ChiSox, Angels and Astros were involved. Frankly, many teams could put together attractive packages that would make it difficult not to listen.

Teams with good, aggressve GMs include Detroit and Atlanta (flip Renteria?).

At the end of the day, though, the teams that I would be most excited to hear were aggressive in their efforts would be Anaheim and Boston.

[Sports Guy]

I dont understand how a deal of Prior and Cedeno is not fair value for Tejada.
Of course it is fair value and if anything, the Orioles should get someone else back. But Dave is still in lala land about this.

No biggie.

I hope the Orioles are not looking at that Stros deal although i do agree that the Stros make sense. But at the end of the day, IMO, they do not have enough to trade for Miggy unless they are willing to deal Oswalt, which i am sure they aren't. Besides, there rotation is suspect without Clemens as it is, i can nto see them dealing Pettitte as well.

Still have to wonder if the Angels are interested. Stoneman has been pretty steadfast about not trading prospects but at some point, you have to wonder if he will.

[erb8472]

WB said it's a big trade in the works is it possible that things could be heating back up between the Red Sox and Orioles regarding Manny and Tejada?

[RZNJ]

The Orioles have a history of making deals with the Cubs. A short history, but one nonetheless. Fortunately, F & D and Hendry seem more amenable to trades than Dave and SG. If anything goes down (which I doubt highly) I think it would be the Cubs. The trade from the Cubs, some variation of Tejada/Prior, makes the most sense to me. P.S. The Boras factor makes that one highly unlikely also. Back to the drawing board.

[Sports Guy]

Belkast said some team is making hard for us not to listen.

For that to be the case, someone must be offering prospects and a very good MLer in return...That is what we were looking at before.

[Belkast]

WB said it's a big trade in the works is it possible that things could be heating back up between the Red Sox and Orioles regarding Manny and Tejada?



NO....Manny will not be coming here.

[Sports Guy]

NO....Manny will not be coming here.


Is it an AL or NL team? Throw us a bone. :D (or a PM ;) )

[neveradoubt]

Continue to watch for phillies/Orioles trade.

[Belkast]

Guys again I don't think Miggy is going anywhere. I told BB a couple of weeks ago about a team still talking to us and THE only reason I put it on the board today was because of WB'S speculation. That's all!!!!

[erb8472]

It's a shame that Abreu won't accept a trade here. Because if you could trade Tejada for Prior and Cedeno. You could then turn around and trade R. Lopez and Bedard for Abreu and Floyd.

[clapdiddy]

Continue to watch for phillies/Orioles trade.
Are you "in the know" or do you just have a hunch?

[erb8472]

Guys again I don't think Miggy is going anywhere. I told BB a couple of weeks ago about a team still talking to us and THE only reason I put it on the board today was because of WB'S speculation. That's all!!!!

Belkast is it right for me to assume though that you and BB have heard about something significant possibly happening.

[Belkast]

Belkast is it right for me to assume though that you and BB have heard about something significant possibly happening.



No, unless you consider Hildago significant!

[RZNJ]

Continue to watch for phillies/Orioles trade.

Hmmm. If Miggy won't play 3rd then Rolllins would have to come back in the deal to open up SS. You'd never get Rollins and Abreu. So it would have to be Rollins and something else for Tejada. How else would it work?

[erb8472]

Is it an AL or NL team? Throw us a bone. :D (or a PM ;) )

From Belkasts earlier post:

I have never confirmed which team is still talking to us. I've tried but my guy is being pretty tight lipped on which team it is. I know Houston had a good offer at one time so if I were a betting man my guess is it would be them.

[davearm]

I dont understand how a deal of Prior and Cedeno is not fair value for Tejada.
Cedeno will play exceptional defense, hopefully put up a .300/.350 line, and run some, all for the league minimum salary. Dusty Baker has recently said that he's a candidate for the #2 hole in the lineup. The Cubs are very high on this kid, and getting him on the field -- either at SS or 2B -- has been their focus this offseason.

Prior, what more needs to be said. If he's right (and there's no reason to believe he's not), he's a Cy Young candidate, with 3 years to go before he hits free agency.

I would not give that up for a malcontent superstar with questionmarks (B-12 / 2005 second half).

[RZNJ]

No, unless you consider Hildago significant!

When things are slow, Franklin Gracesqui seems significant. :002_sbiggrin:

[erb8472]

No, unless you consider Hildago significant!

I just might. I do like bringing him in. Just for the fact it gets Conine out of LF. Have they upped their offer from a minor league deal, or is he just not getting anything else put on the table?

[Belkast]

When things are slow, Franklin Gracesqui seems significant. :002_sbiggrin:



You know what though....that guy COULD have a impact on the team. Tony seems to like him.

[Sports Guy]

Cedeno will play exceptional defense, hopefully put up a .300/.350 line, and run some, all for the league minimum salary. Dusty Baker has recently said that he's a candidate for the #2 hole in the lineup. The Cubs are very high on this kid, and getting him on the field -- either at SS or 2B -- has been their focus this offseason.

Prior, what more needs to be said. If he's right (and there's no reason to believe he's not), he's a Cy Young candidate, with 3 years to go before he hits free agency.

I would not give that up for a malcontent superstar with questionmarks (B-12 / 2005 second half).

Key word in all of this.

Not wanting to do the deal is one thing..Saying it is not realistic is silly at best.

[clapdiddy]

Guys again I don't think Miggy is going anywhere. I told BB a couple of weeks ago about a team still talking to us and THE only reason I put it on the board today was because of WB'S speculation. That's all!!!!
My take is that we've quietly still been listening to offers for Miggy. I think the whole Miggy phone call (at Fanfest) was basically Miggy saying he'd play nice and allow us to look for a deal, while he wasn't out bashing the FO about it.

Now he turns around and says more of the same crap to the Post, and it rearing its ugly head again.

I've been saying all along that I think they did this whole "kiss and make up" was to increase the return they could get for him. It wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt.

[Belkast]

I just might. I do like bringing him in. Just for the fact it gets Conine out of LF. Have they upped their offer from a minor league deal, or is he just not getting anything else put on the table?


My guy says we offered a 1 year deal buy BB's guy said a minor league deal.

Maybe BB could chime in and let us know if anything has changed on his end.

[Sports Guy]

Belkast...Are we still looking for a starter?

[bigbird]

My guy says we offered a 1 year deal buy BB's guy said a minor league deal.

Maybe BB could chime in and let us know if anything has changed on his end.

My guy is still saying a minor league deal. We may be waiting to see if we get a waiver claim for the open roster spot. He also confirmed what Belkast posted recently about looking for another starter and RLo most likely being dealt. No names about the pitcher. No interest at all in Durazo. Matos will be traded if Hidalgo is signed.

[erb8472]

Cedeno will play exceptional defense, hopefully put up a .300/.350 line, and run some, all for the league minimum salary. Dusty Baker has recently said that he's a candidate for the #2 hole in the lineup. The Cubs are very high on this kid, and getting him on the field -- either at SS or 2B -- has been their focus this offseason.

Prior, what more needs to be said. If he's right (and there's no reason to believe he's not), he's a Cy Young candidate, with 3 years to go before he hits free agency.

I would not give that up for a malcontent superstar with questionmarks (B-12 / 2005 second half).

Tejada might have question marks but look at your descriptions of Cedeno and Prior.

Cedeno:
...hopefully put up a .300/.350 line...

That is definitley possible, but he has yet to play a complete season in the big leagues. So his productivity is still a ? mark.

Prior:
...If he's right...

If there's no reason to believe he isn't, then why would it even have been brought up. Regardless of how Prior is right now. He is has been injuried the past two seasons only throwing 118 innings and 166. So he hasn't been right those two seasons. Plus I would be really concerned about prior a few years from now especially the way Dusty Baker handles his pitching staff.

While tejada has question marks IMO Prior and Cedeno have bigger question marks.

[Sports Guy]

Just to poor gasoline on the fire...This is from MLB trade rumors:

We thought the Miguel Tejada rumors had died down. He seemed fairly content, and said all the right things. However, Daily Herald columnist Barry Rozner has reignited the Miggy hot stove talk.

In Washington DC to cover the White Sox ceremony, Rozner ran into all sorts of DC media types. According to Rozner:

"They’re hearing the Orioles would love to move the unhappy Tejada out of Baltimore before the season even begins."

He adds that he expects Tejada to be moved before the season starts or right before the July trading deadline. As a refresher, MLBTradeRumors has reported that the Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, and Astros have all been involved in talks for Tejada this offseason.

[erb8472]

My guy is still saying a minor league deal. We may be waiting to see if we get a waiver claim for the open roster spot. He also confirmed what Belkast posted recently about looking for another starter and RLo most likely being dealt. No names about the pitcher. No interest at all in Durazo. Matos will be traded if Hidalgo is signed.

Maybe RLo, and Matos for Clement.

[Why Not?]

My guy is still saying a minor league deal. We may be waiting to see if we get a waiver claim for the open roster spot. He also confirmed what Belkast posted recently about looking for another starter and RLo most likely being dealt. No names about the pitcher. No interest at all in Durazo. Matos will be traded if Hidalgo is signed.

Seems like a plausible scenario. Sign Hidalgo, then package Rodrigo and Matos for a comparable starting pitcher that doesn't have a big Boras payday upcoming.

[OrioleMagic]

Two days ago I saw an article where the Astros confirmed that they offered Lidge, Everett, and Tavares, which the O's turned down. I will try to find the article again. If Tejada is so disgruntled... It might be best to just turn the page so to speak...

EDIT: It was the Sun article giving a synopsis of the offseason. Link is in the Sun Offseason thread in this forum.

[Sports Guy]

I can not see the Red Sox trading a starter for a starter because, as was said, they have a log jam at starter anyway and they are pursuing Clemens on top of that.

I would like to get Clement and flip him to Texas for Wilkerson.

[Sports Guy]

Two days ago I saw an article where the Astros confirmed that they offered Lidge, Everett, and Tavares, which the O's turned down. I will try to find the article again. If Tejada is so disgruntled... It might be best to just turn the page so to speak...

That is a disgusting deal for us. Just horrible.

[pdiddy]

My guy is still saying a minor league deal. We may be waiting to see if we get a waiver claim for the open roster spot. He also confirmed what Belkast posted recently about looking for another starter and RLo most likely being dealt. No names about the pitcher. No interest at all in Durazo. Matos will be traded if Hidalgo is signed.

I'll be interested to see what the O's can get for RLo...not sure why they're so hot on getting rid of him, this being an even year and all:002_sbiggrin:

Not sure what he brings alone or for that matter what Matos brings. Them going together seems like a stretch since the other team would have to have pretty specific needs or just want a throw in in return for a better pitcher.

[Belkast]

Two days ago I saw an article where the Astros confirmed that they offered Lidge, Everett, and Tavares, which the O's turned down. I will try to find the article again. If Tejada is so disgruntled... It might be best to just turn the page so to speak...



I don't know if piching is the thing we would be looking to get back. If you trade Miggy we have to find someone to replace his bat.

[davearm]

Key word in all of this.

Not wanting to do the deal is one thing..Saying it is not realistic is silly at best.
Let's not forget that it was widely reported that Hendry declined a straight swap of Prior for Tejada.

Say what you will about Cedeno, but adding him into a deal that has already been rejected is not realistic.

[erb8472]

As a refresher, MLBTradeRumors has reported that the Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, and Astros have all been involved in talks for Tejada this offseason.

So what could these teams be offering to force us to listen?

[OrioleMagic]

I would like to get Clement and flip him to Texas for Wilkerson.

Why not keep Clement??? At least until the deadline...

[erb8472]

I don't know if piching is the thing we would be looking to get back. If you trade Miggy we have to find someone to replace his bat.

If Abreu would accept a trade to Baltimore, it would have made taking back pitching for Tejada a lot easier. Considering all indications are that the Phillies really wanted Bedard.

[RZNJ]

Just to poor gasoline on the fire...This is from MLB trade rumors:

We thought the Miguel Tejada rumors had died down. He seemed fairly content, and said all the right things. However, Daily Herald columnist Barry Rozner has reignited the Miggy hot stove talk.

In Washington DC to cover the White Sox ceremony, Rozner ran into all sorts of DC media types. According to Rozner:

"They’re hearing the Orioles would love to move the unhappy Tejada out of Baltimore before the season even begins."

He adds that he expects Tejada to be moved before the season starts or right before the July trading deadline. As a refresher, MLBTradeRumors has reported that the Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, and Astros have all been involved in talks for Tejada this offseason.


Yeah, Yeah. First he was sure to be gone by January 1. Now in the same paragraph it's before the season but then it's also before the deadline. Better not hold your breath. I think if they were going to trade him that they should do it before the season. I don't think his value can go up much but it sure could go down if he gets off to a bad start.

[Belkast]

I can not see the Red Sox trading a starter for a starter because, as was said, they have a log jam at starter anyway and they are pursuing Clemens on top of that.

I would like to get Clement and flip him to Texas for Wilkerson.



I disagree with you on this one. If we end up getting Clement I would hold on to him because of the Mazzone factor alone.


I am with you as far as liking Wilkerson. I think he would be a good fit here.

[Sports Guy]

So what could these teams be offering to force us to listen?

To me, it has to be the Angels.

Some kind of deal where we get Colon/Kotchman/Aybar for Tejada and Rodrigo.

It has to be something like that. It was always reported that we want prospects and a very good MLer.

And don't forget the Tigers. As i speculated before, they could be a big sleeper in all of this.

[OrioleMagic]

I don't know if piching is the thing we would be looking to get back. If you trade Miggy we have to find someone to replace his bat.

I think Manny is the only big bat that has been offered ... I will have to research all those old threads...

[erb8472]

To me, it has to be the Angels.

Some kind of deal where we get Colon/Kotchman/Aybar for Tejada and Rodrigo.

It has to be something like that. It was always reported that we want prospects and a very good MLer.

And don't forget the Tigers. As i speculated before, they could be a big sleeper in all of this.

Would love to get Bonderman.

[Sports Guy]

I disagree with you on this one. If we end up getting Clement I would hold on to him because of the Mazzone factor alone.


I am with you as far as liking Wilkerson. I think he would be a good fit here.

I have no issue with keeping Clement but i would prefer to give up Fio and Finch(something like that) for Lohse and trade Clement for Wilkerson than just keep Clement.

[Belkast]

To me, it has to be the Angels.

Some kind of deal where we get Colon/Kotchman/Aybar for Tejada and Rodrigo.

It has to be something like that. It was always reported that we want prospects and a very good MLer.

And don't forget the Tigers. As i speculated before, they could be a big sleeper in all of this.

.

Yes I would think the Tigers could be a sleeper as well.

[Sports Guy]

Would love to get Bonderman.
Guillen, GRanderson and Bonderman or Verlander is a deal i think the Tigers would really listen to.

[Belkast]

I have no issue with keeping Clement but i would prefer to give up Fio and Finch(something like that) for Lohse and trade Clement for Wilkerson than just keep Clement.


What kind of numbers would you expect from Clement under Mazzone's guidance?

[Sports Guy]

The Tigers have made a big splash each of the last few offseasons and they wanted Tejada before.

They have some good arms coming up, so i think this is something not to discount.

It would also not make Miggy happy, which may be a little icing on the cake for the Orioles FO because of the way Tejada went about all of this to begin with.

[erb8472]

Guillen, GRanderson and Bonderman or Verlander is a deal i think the Tigers would really listen to.

Sounds ok to me, although I dont think Verlander is for trade period. I would be fine with getting Bonderman though.

Then do you see if the Phillies want pitching bad enough to trade Burrell since Abreu will not come here?

[Sports Guy]

What kind of numbers would you expect from Clement under Mazzone's guidance?


3.8-4.25 ERA. Solid numbers, good strikeouts. Certainly would like to get him but i would just prefer to have Wilkerson. I think he makes better sense for THIS particular team.

I would certainly prefer Clement to Rlo.

[OrioleMagic]

Guillen, GRanderson and Bonderman or Verlander is a deal i think the Tigers would really listen to.

I also like the Tigers best... I think they would make us take Young though instead of Granderson... Guillen, Young, and either Bonderman or Verlander would be the middle ground that both clubs would agree to... based on my sheer speculation:002_sbiggrin:

[Sports Guy]

Sounds ok to me, although I dont think Verlander is for trade period. I would be fine with getting Bonderman though.

Then do you see if the Phillies want pitching bad enough to trade Burrell since Abreu will not come here?

The Tigers reportedly offer Verlander before for Miggy.

Possible on the Phils but i would not do it(assumign they would want Bedard). I want to put Bonderman or Verlander with BEdard and DC. Now, maybe we could do something where we get Clement from Boston or something like that and flip him to Boston.

[HeyPenny]

Guillen is injured all the time, I wouldn't want him. We have no viable backup who can cover when he misses 60 games this season.

As for this talk about possibly trading Miggy and RLo, I actually have enjoyed the moves so far this off-season, taken as a whole. But trading an MVP and our opening day starter in spring training would be devastating and very uncharacteristic of this team. I expect us to open the season with the team we have now, with the exception of Hidalgo being added.

[Belkast]

Man this is becoming a helluva thread but I have some work I have to do. I will chime in later this afternoon. Have a good day everyone!

[davearm]

The Tigers have made a big splash each of the last few offseasons and they wanted Tejada before.

They have some good arms coming up, so i think this is something not to discount.

It would also not make Miggy happy, which may be a little icing on the cake for the Orioles FO because of the way Tejada went about all of this to begin with.
Of course, that's also a huge reason why the Tigers would hesitate. As we all know, Tejada could demand a trade after a year.

[Sports Guy]

I also like the Tigers best... I think they would make us take Young though instead of Granderson... Guillen, Young, and either Bonderman or Verlander would be the middle ground that both clubs would agree to... based on my sheer speculation:002_sbiggrin:

Nah, i doubt they make us take young, although we may be able to do something where we send them Javy and Matos in the deal as well and take back Young.

[doorman]

I doubt it will be the Tigers simply because Miggy will probably invoke his right to be traded after the season.

[Sports Guy]

Of course, that's also a huge reason why the Tigers would hesitate. As we all know, Tejada could demand a trade after a year.

Very true, although it did not stop the Tigers from offering a package similar to what i said for Miggy during this offseason.

[erb8472]

3.8-4.25 ERA. Solid numbers, good strikeouts. Certainly would like to get him but i would just prefer to have Wilkerson. I think he makes better sense for THIS particular team.

I would certainly prefer Clement to Rlo.

I think those numbers would be possible for Clement, and if we trade for him I would keep him in the rotation. I just dont know how willing the Rangers would be to trading Wilkerson.

[erb8472]

Man this is becoming a helluva thread but I have some work I have to do. I will chime in later this afternoon. Have a good day everyone!

Same to you. Thanks for sharing.

As for me I'm going to have my typical day at the office that includes the OH.

[RZNJ]

Guillen is injured all the time, I wouldn't want him. We have no viable backup who can cover when he misses 60 games this season.

As for this talk about possibly trading Miggy and RLo, I actually have enjoyed the moves so far this off-season, taken as a whole. But trading an MVP and our opening day starter in spring training would be devastating and very uncharacteristic of this team. I expect us to open the season with the team we have now, with the exception of Hidalgo being added.


Probably one of the most sensible posts in this thread but the speculation is fun.

[erb8472]

Probably one of the most sensible posts in this thread but the speculation is fun.
With all this speculation, Opening Day will be here before you know it.

[miosfan]

The Tigers reportedly offer Verlander before for Miggy.


Sportsguy where was the reported? I live in Detroit and the talk around here is the the Tiger's will not trade Verlander period.

[erb8472]

Sportsguy where was the reported? I live in Detroit and the talk around here is the the Tiger's will not trade Verlander period.

I was under the same impression. However, I guess if they would trade a guy like Verlander it would definitley be for a player of Tejada's caliber.

[belangerules]

My take is that we've quietly still been listening to offers for Miggy. I think the whole Miggy phone call (at Fanfest) was basically Miggy saying he'd play nice and allow us to look for a deal, while he wasn't out bashing the FO about it.

Now he turns around and says more of the same crap to the Post, and it rearing its ugly head again.

I've been saying all along that I think they did this whole "kiss and make up" was to increase the return they could get for him. It wouldn't surprise me to see him dealt.

Precisely. That's what I am thinking/wondering too. The whole makeup thing could have been to reopen doors that we wanted to at least ponder.

[Sports Guy]

Sportsguy where was the reported? I live in Detroit and the talk around here is the the Tiger's will not trade Verlander period.

Yes it was....I could have sworn it was on mlbtraderumors.com but when i looked back, i did not see it. It was talked about on here though, i will see if i can find it.

I do think the Tigers would prefer to deal Bonderman, which would be fine with me.

A Bonderman/Guillen/Granderson deal would be a very good deal for the Orioles.

We could then deal Rodrigo and some kind of combo of Matos, Javy, Rleal, Fio and players like that for another bat.

[casadeozo]

If we could get Guillen, Granderson, and Bonderman/Verlander I would do that deal in a minute..That would be such a coup for the O's organization.. We would then have enough pitching to deal for another big bat like Dunn

[Sports Guy]

Here are some threads on the whole Tigers stuff....I didn't really read through them as they are very long but the Verlander stuff will be in there i think.

BTW, we would probably look to include Rodrigo in this deal as well...Get back Pena or maybe Shelton(probably Pena) and perhaps another player.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28981&highlight=verlander


http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28995&highlight=verlander

[Mackus]

A Bonderman/Guillen/Granderson deal would be a very good deal for the Orioles.
That deal would actually be quite good for the Orioles, assuming Guillen continues a high level of play. We get a very good SS to replace Tejada, and another front-end starter in Bonderman. If we're going to move Tejada, I think this would be one of the better packages coming back.

[Hank Scorpio]

That deal would actually be quite good for the Orioles, assuming Guillen continues a high level of play. We get a very good SS to replace Tejada, and another front-end starter in Bonderman. If we're going to move Tejada, I think this would be one of the better packages coming back.

Even Dombrowski isn't this stupid!!!

[RZNJ]

In a month someone will say that a Guillen/Bonderman/Granderson deal was reportedly offered for Tejada.

[D-CAB]

If I had to bet, I would say Houston. Unless the Cubs hear about it and up the ante, I think Houston might be the best place. I could see the Astros giving back some quality talent. They have enough prospects and solid players to "keep us listening"

Also they are one team that I would think would be pushing hard as Tejada might be the final piece to the championship puzzle. My guess is Flanny/Duquette will play the Cubs and Stros off each other. If someone bites with a ridiculous deal, we can all say bye bye to Miguel. It's getting to the point where maybe Miguel just has to go. I love Miguel, but he's useless to this team if he's that unhappy.

[bigbird]

In a month someone will say that a Guillen/Bonderman/Granderson deal was reportedly offered for Tejada.

Detroit isn;t trading Bonderman.

[Sports Guy]

In a month someone will say that a Guillen/Bonderman/Granderson deal was reportedly offered for Tejada.


But i actually think this was offered. I know Bonderman and Guillen were offered. And i know there was a third player.

I really think the Tigers would jump on a deal of Guillen, Granderson, Pena, D Young and Bonderman for Rlo, Tejada and Matos.

[Sports Guy]

Detroit isn;t trading Bonderman.
They would for Miggy.

[luismatos]

Ok, so, how about a three way trade with the stros and angels?

The Stros get Miggy, Mora, RLo
The O's get Oswalt, Brandon Wood, Orlando Cabrera, Dallas McPherson, Casey Kotchman, Jason Hirsch
The Angels get Ensberg, Everrett, Loewen, Javy

[Hank Scorpio]

Ok, so, how about a three way trade with the stros and angels?

The Stros get Miggy, Mora, RLo
The O's get Oswalt, Brandon Wood, Orlando Cabrera, Dallas McPherson, Casey Kotchman, Jason Hirsch
The Angels get Ensberg, Everrett, Loewen, Javy

:eek: :eek: :eek:

You are beyond dreaming if you think the Angels would even give 1/4 of that!!! I think that collectively, we can forget Anaheim and our boardwide love affair with Kotchman and Wood. Ain't happenin'.

[NewMarketSean]

Funny how the other teams get 3 players and we get 6.

Not happening.

[erb8472]

:eek: :eek: :eek:

It took a while for those smilies to pop up, and I thought the trade idea had left you speechless.

[Hank Scorpio]

It took a while for those smilies to pop up, and I thought the trade idea had left you speechless.

Seriously, it pretty much did leave me speechless. I wasn't quite sure how to respond to that one!

[casadeozo]

But i actually think this was offered. I know Bonderman and Guillen were offered. And i know there was a third player.

I really think the Tigers would jump on a deal of Guillen, Granderson, Pena, D Young and Bonderman for Rlo, Tejada and Matos.


I honestly think we would be better just trading Miggy for the the 3 discussed rather than bringing in more mid level players. The tigers are not gonna trade half their lineup in 1 deal I just dont see it happeneing. We'd be better off making the miggy trade, and then flipping like say an R-lo and Majewski for Wily Mo Pena.

[erb8472]

Seriously, it pretty much did leave me speechless. I wasn't quite sure how to respond to that one!

That's what I assumed.

[Sports Guy]

I honestly think we would be better just trading Miggy for the the 3 discussed rather than bringing in more mid level players. The tigers are not gonna trade half their lineup in 1 deal I just dont see it happeneing. We'd be better off making the miggy trade, and then flipping like say an R-lo and Majewski for Wily Mo Pena.

Trading Pena does not hurt them.

I only said Young to help offset salary. If that is not needed, i would prefer to not get Young.

[OrioleMagic]

Detroit isn;t trading Bonderman.


For a minute there I thought SG made this post. Usually a Bigbird post goes something like this: "I highly doubt Detroit would trade Bonderman", or "I would be shocked if Detroit traded Bonderman". On the other hand, do you KNOW something that the rest of us don't??? Your statement is a bit more conclusive than I would suspect you meant it... Thanks.

[OrioleMagic]

But i actually think this was offered. I know Bonderman and Guillen were offered. And i know there was a third player.

I really think the Tigers would jump on a deal of Guillen, Granderson, Pena, D Young and Bonderman for Rlo, Tejada and Matos.

I think they offered Guillen and Nate Robertson...but we should insist on Bonderman.

I agree that Guillen and Bonderman are likley available... It seems Guillen has durability issues, but is talented when healthy. Bonderman would be the centerpiece of the trade from the Tigers perspective. What else comes along is where the negotiations would occur. I suspect the Tigers would see Guillen's offensive numbers, where the O's would see his games played numbers... I think it is workable though. Whether a top prospect like Granderson comes along and/or the O's take a salary dump of Young or Pena would have to be worked out. Two major questions before we even get into fringe players exchanged are: Will Tejada stay for more than one year and be happy? Who will the Tigers bring into their rotation to replace Bonderman?

[bigbird]

They would for Miggy.
no they won't......

[Trinidad]

I've scoured the board, and found nothing hangouters speculation about the tigers would offer for Tejada. The only confirmed report I found simply spoke of the tigers being interested. I also found an article implying that early in the off-season Florida offered Beckett to the tigers straight up for Verlander, Which Dombrowski declined. I think that makes it safe to say that at least Verlander is untouchable.

[Sports Guy]

no they won't......

Is this your opinion or did you hear that?

Because i had read where the Tigers offered Bonderman.

OM...They did offer Robertson but they also offered Verlander in that deal, at least reportedly.

[bigbird]

Is this your opinion or did you hear that?

Because i had read where the Tigers offered Bonderman.

OM...They did offer Robertson but they also offered Verlander in that deal, at least reportedly.

What I heard

[Sports Guy]

Here is this thread, talks about the offer with us getting Verlander in the deal....Bigbird, you said in this this thread that the Tigers would rather give up Bonderman than Verlander.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28995&page=3&highlight=verlander


BTW, BB, when did you hear that about Bonderman?

[bigbird]

Here is this thread, talks about the offer with us getting Verlander in the deal....Bigbird, you said in this this thread that the Tigers would rather give up Bonderman than Verlander.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28995&page=3&highlight=verlander


BTW, BB, when did you hear that about Bonderman?

Thought I said that it was "my proposed deal". Told a while back about Bonderman. They need pitching.....no way they're dealing Bonderman.

[weams]

I've been a fan of that proposal every time I've seen it. My problem with it now is who is going to hit the ball? The offensive drop from Miggy to Everett is huge and we've lost the opportunity to get a big bat in the lineup.


I guess we would have to overpay again to buy one and hope it is not Albert Belle.

[OrioleMagic]

Told a while back about Bonderman. They need pitching.....no way they're dealing Bonderman.

Would they deal Verlander? Or are they only offering Guillen, Young, Robertson??? I think Guillen and Robertson have nice upsides but I would want TWO top prospects to come with them... Maybe I'm asking too much but Robertson and Guillen are not equal to Tejada, IMO. Zumaya in addition and a position prospect of Granderson or Shelton might convince me to consider Robertson instead of Bonderman. After all, we have more than one need. A second trade for a bat might be more feasible with these prospects as bait.

[twoBshorty]

Can I just say that I'm extremely tired of this entire thing? Opening up this thread was like jumping back into December and reliving the whole winter all over again. I want either:

a) Tejada to shut up and play

or

b) Tejada to be traded, sooner rather than later, if he won't shut up and play.

That's it. Decisiveness. None of this "Young and the Restless" garbage. Pick a course, make a decision, and stick to it. Something we haven't been very good at for awhile now. This is just going to keep festering and periodically exploding otherwise, and I don't think this team needs that at all. We have enough concerns as it is. I can't take another six months of this.

[HeyPenny]

Let me use this opportunity to once again ask bigbird and Belkast to please share any failed deals that we were working on that haven't been reported in the media. out with it - who were we trying to move, who did teams want to give us, what seemed close one minute and fell apart the next? the news media has reported seemingly half of it - let's hear the other half. that's a good way to accurately judge the FO, isn't it?

[clapdiddy]

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I would've pulled off the Manny/Clement deal for Miggy.

I bet there's no way that Epstein would've even contemplated that deal because he's such an "OPS" type guy.

I think this team would have been better with Ramirez and Clement, then addding an excellent glove in Alex Gonzalez than with Tejada.

[underdog]

If we are going to trade Tejada, I think it should be before the season starts. It should have been before ST.

I think since he is still here that he is probally going to stay.

I bet they were trying to orchestrate something like Tejada for Prior, and then like Rodrigo and Penn for Dunn.
The whole Prior thing scares me a little. I've read on this thread that there is no reason to believe he won't be 100% going into the season. My problem is, that was also the case each of the last 2 years and he missed many months in each. For as valuable a player as Miggy is, we shouldn't have to settle for damaged goods, regardless of what he did when he was healthy in 2003.

[davearm]

The whole Prior thing scares me a little. I've read on this thread that there is no reason to believe he won't be 100% going into the season. My problem is, that was also the case each of the last 2 years and he missed many months in each. For as valuable a player as Miggy is, we shouldn't have to settle for damaged goods, regardless of what he did when he was healthy in 2003.
Just curious, are you aware of the circumstances surrounding Prior's trips to the DL?

[davearm]

Here's a hypo for you guys.

If this whole Tejada thing was going on in some other city, what player(s) currently on the O's (and/or in their minor league system) would you offer for him?

[badboydrake]

Here's a hypo for you guys.

If this whole Tejada thing was going on in some other city, what player(s) currently on the O's (and/or in their minor league system) would you offer for him?


Matters always on the player of course, but I am of the mindset, to get a little, you have to give a lot.

I think a package comparable to what Carlos Delgado was swapped for is pretty much equal to what Tejada should be worth.

But I think Mark Prior is a better pitcher than Beckett, so maybe in the grand scheme of things, Prior for Tejada isnt as one-sided as we think.

[Sports Guy]

Here's a hypo for you guys.

If this whole Tejada thing was going on in some other city, what player(s) currently on the O's (and/or in their minor league system) would you offer for him?


The problem with this is we are not in position where we should trade alot to obtain one player to put us over the top.

[davearm]

The problem with this is we are not in position where we should trade alot to obtain one player to put us over the top.
All I'm asking is what O's player(s) would constitute the "fair value" that you guys keep banding about.

Take the rest of the stuff out... positional strengths and weaknesses, LH vs RH, whether or not you plan to contend, etc.

Just give me other O's name(s) that represent "fair value".

[davearm]

I think a package comparable to what Carlos Delgado was swapped for is pretty much equal to what Tejada should be worth.

I'll buy that.

What current O's players are in such a package?

[WEAVERMAN]

Well anything is possible. The reason I suggested Rlopez to Boston for Clement is because I would think Boston would love to have him. If my thinking is correct Rlopez does pretty well against the Bosox and I think Boston would be happy not to have to face him anymore.

I can't figure out why on earth that the Bosox are so unhappy with Clement. I think the guy is a valuable pitcher and I for one would be ecstatic to have him on the O's.

And then you'll be very disappointed in Clement's mediocre, at best, performance.

[WEAVERMAN]

I like Clement a little better than RLo but you could make a case that it's a wash and RLo is much cheaper. The Red Sox want to deal him because he had a 5.72 ERA after the AB, they owe him 19 M the next two years, and they have an excess of starters at the moment, assuming Paplebon is slated for the rotation and Wells is not traded.

Boston's paying Clement much more than he's worth. Don't let Boston off the hook by taking their bad contract.

[davearm]

And then you'll be very disappointed in Clement's mediocre, at best, performance.
Clement was pretty darn good for the Cubs. He got screwed bigtime with lousy run support his last year here, and he struggled in September, but otherwise he was a very solid starter.

We couldn't afford to pay our 5th starter $8M+ (outside of NYY, who can?), which is the main reason he was allowed to leave to BOS.

[WEAVERMAN]

Clement was pretty darn good for the Cubs. He got screwed bigtime with lousy run support his last year here, and he struggled in September, but otherwise he was a very solid starter.

We couldn't afford to pay our 5th starter $8M+ (outside of NYY, who can?), which is the main reason he was allowed to leave to BOS.

That's just it, he's a 4th or 5th starter. And generally speaking, if Baltimore trades Tejada, who will hit for the Orioles? Corey Patterson? :confused: The Orioles better get some offense back.

[RZNJ]

All I'm asking is what O's player(s) would constitute the "fair value" that you guys keep banding about.

Take the rest of the stuff out... positional strengths and weaknesses, LH vs RH, whether or not you plan to contend, etc.

Just give me other O's name(s) that represent "fair value".

Ok, in a hypothetical, fair value. Markakis, Bedard, and James Johnson (A solid B pitching prospect, IMO)

[RZNJ]

That's not fair at all for the Cubs IMO.

Roberts, Cabrera, and Penn is more like it.


You could be right but I think it's debatable. Some people might like Bedard better than Cabrera even though Cabrera might have more upside. Some people might think Markakis has more upside than Roberts (if they don't buy into Robert's 1st half). Penn is certainly a better prospect than Johnson, but by how much? You may very well be closer than I. I'm interested to hear what Dave has to say and also what other Oriole Hangouters have to say.

[Skywalker76]

I had really thought that Miggy-trade scenario was over....

I can't hear it anymore and I really hope for the season to finally begin.
But just to be part of this "speculation thread" I think if we trade Miggy it's going to be the Angels as they can offer what Flanny and Duquette really want: one ML player and one hot prospect.

[badboydrake]

You could be right but I think it's debatable. Some people might like Bedard better than Cabrera even though Cabrera might have more upside. Some people might think Markakis has more upside than Roberts (if they don't buy into Robert's 1st half). Penn is certainly a better prospect than Johnson, but by how much? You may very well be closer than I. I'm interested to hear what Dave has to say and also what other Oriole Hangouters have to say.


I think his trade is better, honestly, Cabrera has been known to have the best stuff in the majors. And if he can get his walks down, everyone is saying he may be the next great young pitcher in baseball. Factor in Bedard's "injury" last year, and I will take Cabrera every day of the week.

Roberts has proven he can play at an all-star level, and looks to be coming into his own as a hitter, there is no way that Markakis can be valued more than him, because 2B is such a hard position to fill as opposed to outfield. Roberts looks like a 15 homer, 20 steal guy, and at the top of the order that is very good to have.

I dont know what the fascination is with James Johnson, I kinda see him taking a John Maine type drop here next year. If he puts up fascinating number, I will be more than happy to be wrong, but isnt he two years older than Penn, and one league under him...Penn is easily the better prospect.

Roberts, Cabrera, Penn easily trumps Markakis, Bedard, and Johnson.

I think I read on here(because I unfortunately am not too up on the times with other league's systems) that us giving Markakis, and Olson, was equivalent to what the Mets gave up(help me if Im wrong here, someone)

I would give up Markakis, Penn, and Bedard for Tejada and Rich Hill if Tejada was on the Cubs...but I would not trade Cabrera, which is why I think it is very right of you davearm to say you dont want to trade Prior.

Young, dominant pitching is too barren to really give up easily

[RZNJ]

I think his trade is better, honestly, Cabrera has been known to have the best stuff in the majors. And if he can get his walks down, everyone is saying he may be the next great young pitcher in baseball. Factor in Bedard's "injury" last year, and I will take Cabrera every day of the week.

Roberts has proven he can play at an all-star level, and looks to be coming into his own as a hitter, there is no way that Markakis can be valued more than him, because 2B is such a hard position to fill as opposed to outfield. Roberts looks like a 15 homer, 20 steal guy, and at the top of the order that is very good to have.

I dont know what the fascination is with James Johnson, I kinda see him taking a John Maine type drop here next year. If he puts up fascinating number, I will be more than happy to be wrong, but isnt he two years older than Penn, and one league under him...Penn is easily the better prospect.

Roberts, Cabrera, Penn easily trumps Markakis, Bedard, and Johnson.

I think I read on here(because I unfortunately am not too up on the times with other league's systems) that us giving Markakis, and Olson, was equivalent to what the Mets gave up(help me if Im wrong here, someone)

I would give up Markakis, Penn, and Bedard for Tejada and Rich Hill if Tejada was on the Cubs...but I would not trade Cabrera, which is why I think it is very right of you davearm to say you dont want to trade Prior.

Young, dominant pitching is too barren to really give up easily


It's probably better but is it fair value? It might be too much.

[Sports Guy]

Penn or Loewen, Markakis and James Johnson.

In other words, 2 top 5 prospects(top 50 prospects in all of the majors) and another top 10 prospect.

[davearm]

Thanks for the replies, guys.

FWIW, my $0.02:
RZNJ's proposal of Markakis, Penn, Johnson is very fair for Tejada. Markakis is obviously the gem there, and can plausibly replace the lion's share of Tejada's offense (albeit not right away), while the two arms are young guys with upside.

Roberts, Cabrera, Penn is pretty strongly overpaying. Two "second-tier" established major-leaguers and a solid prospect is too much for just Tejada.

JMHO of course.

Incidentally, the Cubs offer that could roughly match RZNJ's would be something like Pie, Hill, Marshall.
Pie < Markakis
Hill ~= Penn
Marshall > Johnson

To that, we could throw in names like Walker, Wellemeyer, or Ohman -- decent ML regulars, but nothing special.

[Sports Guy]

Thanks for the replies, guys.

FWIW, my $0.02:
RZNJ's proposal of Markakis, Penn, Johnson is very fair for Tejada. Markakis is obviously the gem there, and can plausibly replace the lion's share of Tejada's offense (albeit not right away), while the two arms are young guys with upside.

Roberts, Cabrera, Penn is pretty strongly overpaying. Two "second-tier" established major-leaguers and a solid prospect is too much for just Tejada.

JMHO of course.

Incidentally, the Cubs offer that could roughly match RZNJ's would be something like Pie, Hill, Marshall.
Pie < Markakis
Hill ~= Penn
Marshall > Johnson

To that, we could throw in names like Walker, Wellemeyer, or Ohman -- decent ML regulars, but nothing special.


Sorry but Hill is not near Penn.

Not sure Marshall is better than JJ...However, i do not remember his age and stats. JJ was one of the best pitchers in the Carolina league last year.

[Sports Guy]

Oh, my bad, I thought you were talking about fair value for Prior, not Tejada.


That proposal is overpaying for Prior as well.

[Sports Guy]

It probally is but it is more realistic than the one RZNJ posted IMO.

Why would the Cubs trade an ace for a guy who could be good and could bomb, a very good PROSPECT, and an average prospect?

That is a very good offer.

Every prospect deal is a bunch of woulda, couldas.

[davearm]

Sorry but Hill is not near Penn.
The most recent prospect list I've seen has Hill (#71 overall) > Penn (#93) (Dayn Perry/Fox Sports). Perry's commentary:


Hill boasts one of the best curveballs in all the minor leagues, but early in his career, he had trouble harnessing his stuff (72 walks in 109.1 innings in 2004). In 2005, Hill demonstrated much better command. Despite pitching across four different levels last year, Hill fanned 215 and walked only 52 in 155 innings (yes — 215 Ks in only 155 innings). The key was that Hill did a much better job of spotting his fastball. If he's able to refine his changeup, Hill can be a No. 2 starter at the highest level. If that doesn't happen, that brutal curve will allow him to be one heck of a reliever.


Penn sports a low-90s fastball, plus a changeup and a developing curve. Last season, he showed tremendous command at Double-A Bowie of the Eastern League, but he was lit up in 38 innings at Baltimore. If he is going to be successful in the majors, he'll need to refine his breaking stuff. Penn could really use a full season in Triple A, but it remains to be seen whether the pitching-starved O's will show him the patience he needs.

John Sickels grades both players as B- prospects in his latest edition.

I wouldn't be the least surprised if you could find an expert out there that has Penn > Hill. I would, however, be quite surprised if there was an expert that agreed with you that "Hill is not near Penn".

[orangedive]

The most recent prospect list I've seen has Hill (#71 overall) > Penn (#93) (Dayn Perry/Fox Sports). Perry's commentary:



Isn't Dayn Perry the guy who had Fiorentino ranked in the 50s on that list? I wouldn't think his opinion is worth too much. I think what makes Penn > Hill is age.

[davearm]

Isn't Dayn Perry the guy who had Fiorentino ranked in the 50s on that list? I wouldn't think his opinion is worth too much. I think what makes Penn > Hill is age.
Age is certainly in Penn's favor.

Ceiling is *generally* thought to favor Hill. His upside is a very good #2 starter, and he's LH to boot. From everything I've read about him, Penn's upside is a #3-4 type guy, and righthanders are of course more plentiful.

When I crunched all this info in my mental black box, they came out roughly equal. ;)

[Tony-OH]

The most recent prospect list I've seen has Hill (#71 overall) > Penn (#93) (Dayn Perry/Fox Sports). Perry's commentary:





John Sickels grades both players as B- prospects in his latest edition.

I wouldn't be the least surprised if you could find an expert out there that has Penn > Hill. I would, however, be quite surprised if there was an expert that agreed with you that "Hill is not near Penn".
Penn sports a mid-90s fastball that sits in the 92-93 MPH range comfortably. He's been clocked as high as 97. Kinda gives you a clue about Mr. Perry's report (if the Fiorentino ranking didn't already).

He was 20-years old last year. Hill is what, 25? Hill may have great stuff, but his age and lack of command over his career makes him a question mark much bigger than Penn.

[davearm]

Hey I'm up to speed on Hayden Penn's profile, just as I know you guys are familiar with Hill.

The context here is trade value, and I stand by my opinion that they're not very different in that respect. If you want to argue Penn is a bit more valuable then Hill, I'll hear that. But I'm not hearing this talk that "Hill is not near Penn", as SportsGuy asserted.

[Tony-OH]

Hey I'm up to speed on Hayden Penn's profile, just as I know you guys are familiar with Hill.

The context here is trade value, and I stand by my opinion that they're not very different in that respect. If you want to argue Penn is a bit more valuable then Hill, I'll hear that. But I'm not hearing this talk that "Hill is not near Penn", as SportsGuy asserted.
Fair enough. Hill has a bit of a buzz around him, but all things considered (age,performance,ceilling), I would prefer Penn.

[thriftyorioles]

What would you say the odds are for you and SportsGuy to ever agree on a Cubs/Orioles deal?

Slim and None.

[Sports Guy]

Hey I'm up to speed on Hayden Penn's profile, just as I know you guys are familiar with Hill.

The context here is trade value, and I stand by my opinion that they're not very different in that respect. If you want to argue Penn is a bit more valuable then Hill, I'll hear that. But I'm not hearing this talk that "Hill is not near Penn", as SportsGuy asserted.


5 years age difference.....That's why he is not close.

Similar ceiling pitchers...One is 5 years younger. Penn held his own at age 20 in the majors. What was Hill doing at age 20?

[Gentile]

What was Hill doing at age 20?
I have a sneaky suspicion he was mowing davearm's lawn, and probably for free.

[davearm]

5 years age difference.....That's why he is not close.

Similar ceiling pitchers...One is 5 years younger. Penn held his own at age 20 in the majors. What was Hill doing at age 20?
In terms of age/development, the primary difference between Hill and Penn is that Hill went to college, and Penn didn't.

Hill's first full season of professional ball was 2003; he reached the bigs in 2005.

Penn's first full season of professional ball was 2003; he reached the bigs in 2005.

Just because Penn has followed a different path by skipping college doesn't make him inherently better.

[Sports Guy]

In terms of age/development, the primary difference between Hill and Penn is that Hill went to college, and Penn didn't.

Hill's first full season of professional ball was 2003; he reached the bigs in 2005.

Penn's first full season of professional ball was 2003; he reached the bigs in 2005.

Just because Penn has followed a different path by skipping college doesn't make him inherently better.

Are you serious? Who cares about the paths. The point is Penn is doing more at a much younger age than Hill.

Are you telling me that dominating AA(for most of the year) at age 20 is not more impressive than doing it at age 23?

I am sorry, it is not close.

I like Hill and would like to see him in the O's rotation, so do not think i am slamming him. But he is not the prospect Penn is.

By the time Penn is Hill's age, he very likely will be at least a #3 starter in the majors. Good chance Hill will be a dominant lefty reliever at that time.

[davearm]

Are you serious? Who cares about the paths. The point is Penn is doing more at a much younger age than Hill.

Are you telling me that dominating AA(for most of the year) at age 20 is not more impressive than doing it at age 23?

I am sorry, it is not close.

I like Hill and would like to see him in the O's rotation, so do not think i am slamming him. But he is not the prospect Penn is.

By the time Penn is Hill's age, he very likely will be at least a #3 starter in the majors. Good chance Hill will be a dominant lefty reliever at that time.
You've done an admirable job of presenting your opinion on the matter.

Got anything else to point to in support of this position?

I've already shown that several experts disagree with you, and explained why.

[Sports Guy]

You've done an admirable job of presenting your opinion on the matter.

Got anything else to point to in support of this position?

I've already shown that several experts disagree with you, and explained why.
Who cares what some expert thinks?

As has been said numerous times, it depends on when you saw Penn last year.

In the beginning and end of the year or in the middle of the year when he was rushed, had a dead arm and was effected by trade talks?

If you saw him in the beginning and end of the year, you saw a 20 year old, in AA, DOMINATING hitters. That is what makes him better.

He also held his own up here. Going into his final 2 starts up here, he had a sub 4.5 ERA. He was exactly what DC was the year before. Low K rate, high walk rate. Got by on some talent but did not look impressive.

Penn could easily take a similar path to DC this year and he is 3-4 years younger.

I think it is likely Penn is a starter and Hill is a reliever when all things are said and done.

But hey, if i am you, i would be excited about the potential of Hill. If he were 3 years younger, he would be a top 20 prospect.

[RZNJ]

In terms of age/development, the primary difference between Hill and Penn is that Hill went to college, and Penn didn't.

Hill's first full season of professional ball was 2003; he reached the bigs in 2005.

Penn's first full season of professional ball was 2003; he reached the bigs in 2005.

Just because Penn has followed a different path by skipping college doesn't make him inherently better.

The fact is that most HS pitchers aren't pitching in AA at the age of 20, and even moreso, doing well. The fact also is that Penn is nearly 5 years younger than Hill. That doesn't make Penn better or more talented. Right now anyway. It does mean that he most probably has not stopped developing both physically and as a pitcher. Hill is still developing as a pitcher but it's unlikely he grows any bigger or gets any stronger. Is there a huge difference in talent? Probably not, but I'll take the 20 year old pitcher any day of the week.

Also, I am in no way comparing Hayden Penn to Roger Clemens but if you looked at Clemens when he was 20 or 21, I bet there were a lot of people who thought he was good but nothing special. There's a lot more variables, physically, when a pticher is 20 or 21 as opposed to 25 or 26.

[davearm]

The fact is that most HS pitchers aren't pitching in AA at the age of 20, and even moreso, doing well. The fact also is that Penn is nearly 5 years younger than Hill. That doesn't make Penn better or more talented. Right now anyway. It does mean that he most probably has not stopped developing both physically and as a pitcher. Hill is still developing as a pitcher but it's unlikely he grows any bigger or gets any stronger. Is there a huge difference in talent? Probably not, but I'll take the 20 year old pitcher any day of the week.

Also, I am in no way comparing Hayden Penn to Roger Clemens but if you looked at Clemens when he was 20 or 21, I bet there were a lot of people who thought he was good but nothing special. There's a lot more variables, physically, when a pticher is 20 or 21 as opposed to 25 or 26.
Well as I said at the outset, I'm not dismissing the age difference. It's definitely a mark in Penn's favor.

The equalizing factor is that, right now, Hill is better, and has a higher ceiling. Both guys have question marks, but if both guys realize their full potential, Hill will be more valuable as a lefty strikeout machine than Penn will be as a solid middle-of-the-rotation righty.

[erb8472]

Well as I said at the outset, I'm not dismissing the age difference. It's definitely a mark in Penn's favor.

The equalizing factor is that, right now, Hill is better, and has a higher ceiling. Both guys have question marks, but if both guys realize their full potential, Hill will be more valuable as a lefty strikeout machine than Penn will be as a solid middle-of-the-rotation righty.

I wouldn't say that Penn's full potential is a middle of the rotation starter.

[davearm]

Who cares what some expert thinks?

Who cares what you think, then?

Why should we dismiss the opinions of guys that evaluate minor leaguers for a living, but pay attention to what you have to say?

So you saw Penn pitch last year. Fantastic. Does that alone qualify you to rank him relative to Hill and all the other pitching prospects around baseball?

[davearm]

I wouldn't say that Penn's full potential is a middle of the rotation starter.
People who do this sort of thing for a living have said it.

[RZNJ]

Well as I said at the outset, I'm not dismissing the age difference. It's definitely a mark in Penn's favor.

The equalizing factor is that, right now, Hill is better, and has a higher ceiling. Both guys have question marks, but if both guys realize their full potential, Hill will be more valuable as a lefty strikeout machine than Penn will be as a solid middle-of-the-rotation righty.

Here's where I believe that you and some of these experts have a strong disagreement with me, SportsGuys, and Tony P. I wouldn't pidgeonhole Penn at 20/21 years of age, as a #3 starter. No way. He might be but he can be more than that, IMO. He had pretty good K numbers himself last year.

[erb8472]

People who do this sort of thing for a living have said it.
Q: Jay from Madison asks:
A few o's questions for you. Is Hayden Penn more than a middle of the rotation starter? Is Walter Young a big leaguer? Is Markakis looking better than bigbie?

A: John Manuel: Penn's a front-line guy if he handles the way he's been used, the O's really had no other option to go to. I am not in Big Walter's corner, and Nick Markakis is going to be better than Bigbie.

Source - Baseball America (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/chat/050715jm.html)

[Sports Guy]

How can you say Hill has a higher ceiling? What has he doen to justify that remark?

[RZNJ]

People who do this sort of thing for a living have said it.


Tony does this sort of thing also. Granted, we have a bias, but Tony's getting a little more inside info than some of these "experts" might be getting. Was Rich Hill projected as a future #2 in 2003 or 2004? The same experts who predict Daniel Cabrera as a possible breakthrough candidate this year and a possible ace, never had him listed on any top 100 prospect list.

[Sports Guy]

Who cares what you think, then?

Why should we dismiss the opinions of guys that evaluate minor leaguers for a living, but pay attention to what you have to say?

So you saw Penn pitch last year. Fantastic. Does that alone qualify you to rank him relative to Hill and all the other pitching prospects around baseball?

I know alot more about Penn's situation than those guys do, as you know more about Hill than they do.

Those guys follow the minors as a whole, not individual teams. They are not experts for each team.

Tony is much much much much more of an expert on the Orioles system than Dayn Perry, Sickles or some other "expert" with a journalism degree.

[davearm]

I know alot more about Penn's situation than those guys do, as you know more about Hill than they do.

Those guys follow the minors as a whole, not individual teams. They are not experts for each team.

Tony is much much much much more of an expert on the Orioles system than Dayn Perry, Sickles or some other "expert" with a journalism degree.
I'm not disputing that you guys know the O's prospects quite well, and perhaps better than some of the so-called experts.

What I'm disputing is that you're more qualified to compare Penn with Player X (in this case, Rich Hill), when Player X plays in some other organization, you've never seen him pitch, and you know nothing about him other than his statline and what you've read on BaseballAmerica.

The so-called experts with a much wider breadth of knowledge are better positioned to make these sorts of calls than you or me.

So when you say, "Hill isn't close to Penn", with nothing more than your limited personal opinion to back it, I'm going to call you on it.

Bottom line, if a "plugged-in" guy like John Sickels calls both players B- prospects, I feel pretty comfortable saying that they're roughly equal in value. I've yet to see any credible support for your position that they're not roughly equal in value.

[davearm]

How can you say Hill has a higher ceiling? What has he doen to justify that remark?
Once again, I'm not saying it. I'm reading it from the so-called experts, and more or less taking their word for it, since I consider them more equipped to judge such things than you or I are.

[Sports Guy]

I'm not disputing that you guys know the O's prospects quite well, and perhaps better than some of the so-called experts.

What I'm disputing is that you're more qualified to compare Penn with Player X (in this case, Rich Hill), when Player X plays in some other organization, you've never seen him pitch, and you know nothing about him other than his statline and what you've read on BaseballAmerica.

The so-called experts with a much wider breadth of knowledge are better positioned to make these sorts of calls than you or me.

So when you say, "Hill isn't close to Penn", with nothing more than your limited personal opinion to back it, I'm going to call you on it.

Bottom line, if a "plugged-in" guy like John Sickels calls both players B- prospects, I feel pretty comfortable saying that they're roughly equal in value. I've yet to see any credible support for your position that they're not roughly equal in value.
I do have something to back it...Age. That is the huge difference here.

[davearm]

I do have something to back it...Age. That is the huge difference here.
The so-called experts that are calling the two roughly equal, or Hill slightly ahead, no doubt have factored age in.

[Belkast]

Just my 2 cents here but I agree with Dave. As a fan of the O's it is only natural to think your guy is the better player because we have followed him throughout his career. However, I think you have to judge talent to talent from the so called experts that follow all the players. Sorry SG but I think Dave's point is valid here.

BTW Dave, Don't get used to me taking your side.;)

[Sports Guy]

You use what the experts say as a guide, not a gospel.

Because many experts seemed to see Penn at the wrong time last year, i will discount what alot of them say.

I mean, ERb did reference a chat with Manuel saying Penn is a front line guy.

I do not think i have ever heard Hill regarded as a front line guy.

End of the day, i would take either on my team but no way i trade Penn for Hill.

[erb8472]

Aaron Gleeman of Rotoworld currently ranked Hayden Penn at #60. Hill didn't even crack the top 100, while John Maine did. While Markakis was ranked 62. This is just further proof to me that you can't go off of National Prospect Rankings, but rather insiders for your team.

[Ruzious]

How can you say Hill has a higher ceiling? What has he doen to justify that remark?
I think Hill does have a higher ceiling because:
1. He's got 2 dominating pitches vs arguably none for Penn.
2. He had 194 SO's in 130.2 minor league innings last season along with a Whip barely over 1.00.
3. He seemed to overcome his main weakness - control. In those 130.2 innings, he walked only 35. However, the walks did pile up in his short stint with the Cubs last year, so while there's cause for optimism, there's also cause for concern.

[RZNJ]

Aaron Gleeman of Rotoworld currently ranked Hayden Penn at #60. Hill didn't even crack the top 100, while John Maine did. While Markakis was ranked 62. This is just further proof to me that you can't go off of National Prospect Rankings, but rather insiders for your team.


I wonder if the Cubs would trade Hill for Penn? I bet they would. And I bet the Orioles wouldn't. No way to prove this but I feel pretty confident in saying it.

[davearm]

I wonder if the Cubs would trade Hill for Penn? I bet they would. And I bet the Orioles wouldn't. No way to prove this but I feel pretty confident in saying it.
That's a very interesting question, and obviously right on point here.

I honestly don't have a sense one way or the other. The Dontrelle Willis experience has made Hendry very reluctant to part with lefty starters with big potential, and this offseason he's included Hill on a short list of "untouchables".

On the other hand there's no disputing that age is on Penn's side, and Hill may ultimately slot in as a LOOGY.

[Avsfan]

1. He's got 2 dominating pitches vs arguably none for Penn.



Except Penn has an above average/good changeup...normally the last & hardest pitch for a young pitcher to master.

Lets also mention that Hill turns 26 before opening day...and that when he was Penn's age, he was in his freshman year at Michigan.

[rp0806]

I'm not as high on Penn as some, but I really don't seen how Hill can be considered in his class. Penn is 4.5 years younger, which is a huge difference in terms of their respective ceilings. Penn just had a good (but not great) year in AA as a 20 year old. Hill just had a good (but not great) season in AA and AAA as a 25 year old. Hill's K rate is incredible, but his control is much, much worse. He's averaged over 6 BBs per 9 innings in his minor league career. That's not good. Another problem is that we don't really know if 2005 represents the "real" Hill. He had a nice season, but we can't assume that he's suddenly turned the corner and learned how to pitch. His minor and major league career has to be viewed as a whole.

As far as the analysts go...Perry's list is worthless. I don't know anyone that takes it seriously. It's just a fluff piece for the website. I respect Sickels and generally trust his judgment. For some reason, he's really down on Penn, but maybe he's on to something. I don't know. Bryan Smith of Baseball Analysts listed Penn at 48. Hill didn't make the list:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/01/2006_wtny_75_50_1.php

[OrioleMagic]

I personally like Penn better, but the statements Davearm has made are much closer to being characterized as factual or realistic than Sportsguys highly opinionated and conclusive statements. Tony might be in a position to monitor and report first hand knowledge about O's minor leaguers, but unless I've missed something in the last 2+ years, SG is just another avid O's fan like the rest of us. FWIW, I think SG would be great on a debate team, but that doesn't make a person right.:)

[elextrano8]

How to Hill and Penn compare in GB/FB ratio?

[RZNJ]

I think Hill does have a higher ceiling because:
1. He's got 2 dominating pitches vs arguably none for Penn.
2. He had 194 SO's in 130.2 minor league innings last season along with a Whip barely over 1.00.
3. He seemed to overcome his main weakness - control. In those 130.2 innings, he walked only 35. However, the walks did pile up in his short stint with the Cubs last year, so while there's cause for optimism, there's also cause for concern.

Somebody should tell all of those hitters in AA that Penn has got average stuff. They must feel pretty silly, striking out so much against him. You didn't see Penn at his best in the majors. Not too surprising for a 20 yo pitcher who was not at the top of his game. Why do you accept that Hill's fastball is dominating and yet you don't accept reports from Tony that Penn has touched 97 and pitches 92-95? And as someone else said, Penn has the makings of a plus changeup which is probably the hardest pitch for starters to get down, which is why many wind up in the bullpen.

[OrioleMagic]

The Dontrelle Willis experience has made Hendry very reluctant to part with lefty starters with big potential, and this offseason he's included Hill on a short list of "untouchables".

I thought Hill was one of the main pieces OFFERED by the Cubs for Tejada???

[Avsfan]

How to Hill and Penn compare in GB/FB ratio?

Penn 1.26
Hill .92 (for 3 levels last year)

[elextrano8]

Penn 1.26
Hill .92 (for 3 levels last year)

Thanks...thats pretty much what I expected, but I don't have access to those stats at work.

[davearm]

I thought Hill was one of the main pieces OFFERED by the Cubs for Tejada???
...for Tejada *and* Bedard (reportedly).

Your point is well taken though. Like anyone else, Hill is available in the right deal.

[RZNJ]

Penn 1.26
Hill .92 (for 3 levels last year)


Something to consider with Hill. I know I seem to be out to get the guy but I think these are valid points. In the year, at age 25, when he supposedly turned his career around with better control, and when some say he dominated the minor leagues, he gave up 20 HR's in only 120 IP between AA & AAA. That's a heck of a bad homer rate, considering he was dominating the minors at the time. Penn gave up 11 HR's in 110 IP. I'm not sure what this tells us as far as a comparison but it does shine a big red flag on Hill as far as I'm concerned. Why the huge homer rate? Why an ERA of 3.6 at AAA when he was supposedly dominating. We were disappointed with Penn's ERA of 3.8 at AAA and we acknowledge that he was disappointing for a lot of the year down there. People keep bringing up Penn's 38 IP at the major league level as a minus. Well, Hill pitched 25 IP in the ML and did worse than Penn did.

[davearm]

Somebody should tell all of those hitters in AA that Penn has got average stuff. They must feel pretty silly, striking out so much against him. You didn't see Penn at his best in the majors. Not too surprising for a 20 yo pitcher who was not at the top of his game. Why do you accept that Hill's fastball is dominating and yet you don't accept reports from Tony that Penn has touched 97 and pitches 92-95? And as someone else said, Penn has the makings of a plus changeup which is probably the hardest pitch for starters to get down, which is why many wind up in the bullpen.
Even I wouldn't try to argue that Hill's fastball is dominant.

It's solid, and is an out pitch, but basically only because the threat of the curve enhances the fastball's effectiveness. FWIW, it tops out in the low-90s.

Also FWIW, Hill made a lot of progress with his changeup last season. Developing that change into a plus pitch, along with keeping the control issues harnessed, are the keys to Hill's success in the bigs.

[TonySoprano]

Well, hopefully this thread has run its course because I sense a lockdown coming.

[Sports Guy]

Well, hopefully this thread has run its course because I sense a lockdown coming.

Seriously.........

[hoosiers]

OsMagic, I've had plenty of run-ins with SG. SG is very earnest about his opinion and he will post it until the cows come home, but there is no reason to call out another poster to the whole board like you are doing.

If you send a PM and hash it out, I know first hand with SG that a rapport can be established that facilitates a more respectful exchange.

Regarding negative rep points, you just remember this is a community board and just deal with it. Sapper was handing them out like candy last year so I have to laugh when he whines about BTerp banging him. I do not believe I've given negative rep points since people usually react in a defensive way - as you experienced - which just leads to bad blood - as you posted. Better to just keep it to yourself and try making informative posts about our Orioles than to make things personal.

[RZNJ]

This is off track but here's my two cents. OriolesMagic, you probably should have handled this with a PM or in the rant section in a more general way. But, as someone who has built up my rep points (trying to make a point not blow my horn) I can see where the rep system can be unfair. Someone with one rep square can be afraid to negative rep someone with a lot of rep even if they deserve it (not saying SG deserved it) for fear of retribution that is unbalanced.

[RZNJ]

Well, hopefully this thread has run its course because I sense a lockdown coming.


You better start typing faster then!

[Cokeman]

OsMagic, I've had plenty of run-ins with SG. SG is very earnest about his opinion and he will post it until the cows come home, but there is no reason to call out another poster to the whole board like you are doing.

If you send a PM and hash it out, I know first hand with SG that a rapport can be established that facilitates a more respectful exchange.

Regarding negative rep points, you just remember this is a community board and just deal with it. Sapper was handing them out like candy last year so I have to laugh when he whines about BTerp banging him. I do not believe I've given negative rep points since people usually react in a defensive way - as you experienced - which just leads to bad blood - as you posted. Better to just keep it to yourself and try making informative posts about our Orioles than to make things personal.

What they do behind closed doors is no concern of mine, thank you very much. ;)

[RZNJ]

What they do behind closed doors is no concern of mine, thank you very much. ;)


Geez! I missed that one. lol

[Sports Guy]

What they do behind closed doors is no concern of mine, thank you very much. ;)
You know...There was no reason to point out that terrible image. LOL

[Cokeman]

You know...There was no reason to point out that terrible image. LOL

Misery loves company, so I had to share it.

[Belkast]

Well, hopefully this thread has run its course because I sense a lockdown coming.



TONY-OH is online now....5,4,3,2,1

[OrioleMagic]

Well, it seems some have spoken. I will take this to a PM. My apologies to the board in general.