View Full Version : Promote Liz
DocJJ
04-13-2006, 11:45 AM
After one more dominant start.
Then, send him to Bowie. I know, everyone will yell "why rush him? Don't you know you can ruin a prospect by rushing him too soon?"...
My response is I've seen him pitch in Sarasota. He's untouchable. When he has his command and his mechanics on, you just can't hit him. He knows how to mix it up and change speeds. He knows how to paint the corners. Put him in Bowie and see what he can do. He's very confident. He doesn't need his confidence built against a bunch of guys he can mow down every game, he needs to be challenged.
After one more dominant start.
Then, send him to Bowie. I know, everyone will yell "why rush him? Don't you know you can ruin a prospect by rushing him too soon?"...
My response is I've seen him pitch in Sarasota. He's untouchable. When he has his command and his mechanics on, you just can't hit him. He knows how to mix it up and change speeds. He knows how to paint the corners. Put him in Bowie and see what he can do. He's very confident. He doesn't need his confidence built against a bunch of guys he can mow down every game, he needs to be challenged.
I think one more start is a bit of a rush. We don't even know if he will be dominant in his next start, but even if he is, I think 3 or 4 more starts won't exactly impede his progress too much. If he is untouchable in his next few starts, I do believe he'll get promoted quickly.
NewMarketSean
04-13-2006, 12:57 PM
I would err on the side of caution. Look at Cabrera. Liz's control is an issue as well so we should let him rise throughout the organization slowly but surely.
kidpoker88
04-13-2006, 01:01 PM
To me, he still has to prove that he can consistently use his offspeed stuff and command all his pitches. He did a good job the first time out but so did Loewen before he got rocked the 2nd time out. Liz has to prove that he can have solid outings every time out.
NCRaven
04-13-2006, 02:53 PM
Did you say the same thing after Loewen's 8 I, 1 H, 0 BB, 12 K performance? How did that turn out?
At this point in their development, pitchers can be maddenling inconsistent. Let the kid develop and don't push it.
McLovin
04-13-2006, 03:19 PM
See: Finch, Brian.
DocJJ
04-13-2006, 03:24 PM
I most certainly did NOT suggest this after Loewen's good outing. Loewen has ALWAYS been plagued by problems with his mechanics and bouts of wildness, since the day he signed. I did NOT get excited by his initial outing, because I knew he'd continue to be inconsistent.
Avsfan
04-13-2006, 04:24 PM
pitchers can be maddenling inconsistent.
Never heard that word before...
:002_stongue:
wayne25
04-13-2006, 04:50 PM
you've got to be kidding, or you can't know alot about baseball..This time last year, he could not do well enough to stay at Delmarva. and now after 5 innings, you want to put him in Bowie. ? like the wise man said, "you've got to be kidding".
NCRaven
04-14-2006, 12:28 AM
OK - maddeningly! (duh - :rolleyes: ) Doggone fingers move faster than my brain sometimes.
RPresearch
04-14-2006, 03:01 AM
Liz was named player of the day by MiLB.com for his recent performance
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060413&content_id=57284&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp
It looks the same article as the day before but it has a snazzy new title “Whiz kid Liz earns Star for part in no-hitter”. This is the second time Liz has been named star of the day.
One thing to keep in mind about Liz is that, although he is about 21, I am pretty sure last year was his first time pitching in a stadium setting. Prior to that he only pitched in organizational type settings and on sand lots.
He is an incredibly exciting player to watch pitch but I hope we don’t push him too fast through the system. I think he is still early on his learning curve and that we are going to be in for a bit of a roller coaster ride with him for a while longer.
RPresearch
04-14-2006, 05:07 PM
Another MiLB.com article about the Key's no-hitter:
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060413&content_id=57544&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp
In this article the writer (who was in town but decided to skip the game) says Liz reminded her husband of “a young Ramon Martinez”.
Maverick2143
04-14-2006, 05:30 PM
Not to derail this thread but:
The best part about this whole discussion is the fact that we finally have a decent amount of young pitching talent and we are seeing encouraging results at the minor league level. I agree it might be a little early to talk about promotions but with a strong April and May I am sure he will be rewarded. I think we are going to have these discussions alot this year. :002_sbiggrin:
Tony-OH
04-14-2006, 06:36 PM
you've got to be kidding, or you can't know alot about baseball..This time last year, he could not do well enough to stay at Delmarva. and now after 5 innings, you want to put him in Bowie. ? like the wise man said, "you've got to be kidding".
Easy now, just because someone has different opinion is not a reason to say they know nothing about baseball.
DocJJ
04-14-2006, 09:47 PM
you've got to be kidding, or you can't know alot about baseball..This time last year, he could not do well enough to stay at Delmarva. and now after 5 innings, you want to put him in Bowie. ? like the wise man said, "you've got to be kidding".
"know nothing about baseball".... Thanks, I was having a bad day, but that helped to cheer me up...
Besides, I've seen him pitch in person. Can YOU say that?
acslater
04-15-2006, 09:33 PM
John Sickels just listed Liz as one of his three AL Sleeper Prospects
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/4/15/13253/8587
Radhames Liz, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Liz is still something of a sleeper prospect but won't be for long. He threw five hitless innings in his first start for Frederick, striking out 13. A Dominican signed in 2003, Liz has a fastball clocked in the mid-90s. His strikeout rate was excellent in the low minors last year. His curveball and changeup are erratic, below average last season but reportedly improved this spring. His command still needs work, and guys like this can blow up on you quickly. But they can also blossom just as quickly. This is a potentially special pitcher.
DocJJ
04-18-2006, 09:24 AM
Promote Liz. Try him at Bowie.
I've seen him pitch...he's the real deal.
Promote Liz. Try him at Bowie.
I've seen him pitch...he's the real deal.
His second start confirms your opinion. If he does similarly in his next 3-4 starts, I think he'll get that promotion.
Ruzious
04-18-2006, 04:22 PM
How aboot waiting till he throws more than 5 innings in a game.
And then trade him and RLo for Teixeira... and a prospect. :002_scool:
AgentOrange
04-18-2006, 04:29 PM
How aboot waiting till he throws more than 5 innings in a game.
And then trade him and RLo for Teixeira... and a prospect. :002_scool:
Considering the strict pitch count we are seeing for some of our young studs, I doubt we will see him go over 5 IP this year. At least not consistantly.
DocJJ
04-23-2006, 07:58 PM
Let's see what he can do against double-A hitters!
Let's see what he can do against double-A hitters!
How the heck did they score three runs off of him? He looked untouchable in every other inning. 11 K's in 5 IP. The one walk is good to see also.
Oriolesfan8
04-24-2006, 08:26 PM
For what it's worth, BA just updated their Prospect Hot Sheet and Liz is now #1.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/hotsheet/261122.html
acslater
04-24-2006, 08:38 PM
I posted this in the other Liz thread. I really think that there needs to be one official Liz thread.
Jarman8675
04-25-2006, 07:50 PM
Liz needs a few more starts. Promote him in mid May, if he is still doing well.
shoriole
04-25-2006, 08:44 PM
I saw him at the end of the season last year. The dude has POP!! Unbelievable how much smoke he had. I'd love to see him this year just to see the change from last year. From what I've read hear sounds like his BB are fewer and fewer. Looks like command was one of his big improvements since last year.
blazer
04-25-2006, 10:10 PM
If Liz gets promoted to AA by June, he should be in position to get a long look in ST next season. That could mean having 4 young starters (Penn, Loewen, Johnson, Liz) with a shot at making the rotation, with likely two spots available.
DocJJ
04-26-2006, 11:52 AM
I've seen him in person twice. His stuff is amazingly good. His build is slender, though, so I'm worried he might be succeptible to injury.
His stuff/build remind me a bit of Pedro Martinez. Though Liz doesn't have that nasty changeup of Pedro's. I really think he's ready of Double A hitters. If he can succeed at Bowie, it might be interesting to see what he could do in a late September coffee-cup audition in the Big Leagues.
DocJJ
04-26-2006, 11:55 AM
might be a bit off...
Pedro is listed at 6'0 180 lbs
Liz is listed at 6'2 180 lbs.
might be a bit off...
Pedro is listed at 6'0 180 lbs
Liz is listed at 6'2 180 lbs.
I think that might be generous in Pedro's case.
DocJJ
05-13-2006, 10:29 PM
Promote Liz now!!!
What's the point of having him mow down single-A guys every 5th night? Time to see what he can do against real hitters.
Promote Liz now!!!
What's the point of having him mow down single-A guys every 5th night? Time to see what he can do against real hitters.
I think you'll get your wish soon. I think it's getting to be about that time also.
blazer
05-13-2006, 11:12 PM
Promote Liz now!!!
What's the point of having him mow down single-A guys every 5th night? Time to see what he can do against real hitters.
It is clear that he has mastered this level, definitely time to see what he can do at AA. He might become part of the plan in Baltimore much sooner than it was expected heading into this year, when it was unsure if he would start the year in A- or A+. Now, if he spends the 3+ months in AA this season, he should be ready for at least a look in ST in 2007 and likely start next season in AAA. Heck, maybe he'll even get a September call-up.
WEAVERMAN
05-13-2006, 11:15 PM
I think you'll get your wish soon. I think it's getting to be about that time also.
What's the estimated arrival date for kid? 2008? Liz will be 23 years old in another month, maybe he'll be ready in 2007 at the age of 24?
Crazysilver03
05-14-2006, 12:15 AM
What's the estimated arrival date for kid? 2008? Liz will be 23 years old in another month, maybe he'll be ready in 2007 at the age of 24?
Maybe later 2007. He has to get some experience at Bowie first.
mikezpen
05-14-2006, 01:32 AM
He seems to flat-out dominate in A ball now.I agree they ought to move him to Bowie pretty soon.
I recall Liz's being really wild at Delmarva last year; they demoted him to Aberdeen for awhile. He worked on some things, came back up to Delmarva and has been super since then. Whoever the pitching coach at Aberdeen was, should have his salary quadrupled.
MurphDogg
05-14-2006, 01:43 AM
Is anybody considering the quality of the Bowie staff when advocating Liz's promotion? The entire Bowie staff has an ERA well under 4 and none of them deserve to be demoted to the pen. If it keeps Liz in Frederick an extra week or two while one of the Bowie starters works to earn a promotion to Ottawa then I don't have a problem with it. In fact, having too much quality starting pitching in the minors isn't a bad problem to have.
blazer
05-14-2006, 02:33 AM
Well, Craig Anderson pitched all of 2003 and 2004 in AAA Tacoma, so he should be ready to head back to AAA with the promotion of Liz to AA. Not sure where he was last season. Anybody know?
bigbird
05-14-2006, 01:07 PM
Those moves will happen once Penn comes to Baltimore. Maybe by the end of May depending on how RLo and Chen pitch.
Is anybody considering the quality of the Bowie staff when advocating Liz's promotion? The entire Bowie staff has an ERA well under 4 and none of them deserve to be demoted to the pen. If it keeps Liz in Frederick an extra week or two while one of the Bowie starters works to earn a promotion to Ottawa then I don't have a problem with it. In fact, having too much quality starting pitching in the minors isn't a bad problem to have.
As we've said before, you don't let a suspect like Stahl or a journeyman like Andersen block the promotion of a top prospect like Liz. Who cares what the team ERA is in Bowie. You make room for Liz and let him continue his progress upwards.
Frobby
05-14-2006, 10:32 PM
Liz will be 23 years old in another month
Actually, his birth date is transposed. It's 10/6, not 6/10. He will be 23 all season. (Right, Tony?)
What's the estimated arrival date for kid? 2008? Liz will be 23 years old in another month, maybe he'll be ready in 2007 at the age of 24?
It depends on how he does at Bowie, but I don't see any way that he's not pitching in Baltimore sometime in 2007. If he should dominate Bowie in a half season after he's promoted then he might have an outside shot at the rotation next spring. Depends on what happens with the O's. How many starter positions are sewn up going into the spring.
Tony-OH
05-15-2006, 09:29 AM
Actually, his birth date is transposed. It's 10/6, not 6/10. He will be 23 all season. (Right, Tony?)
Liz will pitch the entire year at 22-years of age.
Oriolesfan8
05-15-2006, 03:30 PM
Nice Liz article in BA:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/261271.html
bmorechop
05-15-2006, 03:41 PM
Nice Liz article in BA:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/261271.html
WTF -- His shoulder makes a "clicking" noise when he throws a fastball!!???! That's nuts.
tywright
05-19-2006, 11:41 AM
Is Liz pitching tonight or tomorrow?
McLovin
05-19-2006, 11:57 AM
WTF -- His shoulder makes a "clicking" noise when he throws a fastball!!???! That's nuts.
And his fingers hang below his knees when standing straight!?
mikezpen
05-19-2006, 12:16 PM
If Craig Anderson starts at Ottawa today, that opens up a spot for Liz.
If Craig Anderson starts at Ottawa today, that opens up a spot for Liz.
The stars are aligned! Loewen is pitching tonight on regular rest. For tomorrow's game Finch is next in line but he'd be going on short rest since he pitched on the 16th. Liz pitched on the 13th. He's ready to go. There's been a rainout and an offday, which explains why Liz hasn't pitched since the 13th. I guess we'll find out tonight because he should be pitching for the Keys.
The HO says Loewen is pitching tonight but the Baysox website says that Matt Bruback is taking Anderson's turn. Either way, it looks like Liz stays at Frederick for now with Bruback taking Anderson's rotation spot.
mikezpen
05-20-2006, 03:13 PM
They should move Liz up. The article I read said that the batters were missing Liz's mistakes as well as his good pitches. That is very revealing.Liz needs to go where the hitters will HIT his mistakes and force him to adjust. You don't imporve in a league where you are already a god.
They're moving MATT BRUBACK into that spot????
bronzechamp
05-24-2006, 03:52 PM
Instead of making a new thread, I thought of keeping this thread as the Liz tracker.
Today 5/24
Liz pitched pretty well. 6 IP, 2 H , 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 HR
A lot of walks for today but not a bad performance.
DocJJ
05-24-2006, 04:52 PM
2 hits. 8 K's in 6 IP.
That's dominant!
Promote Liz!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mikezpen
05-24-2006, 05:06 PM
too many walks though
Crazysilver03
05-24-2006, 07:53 PM
too many walks though
Well, factoring in hits, he averaged a base runner per inning. Not great, but not bad at all.
bronzechamp
05-31-2006, 05:27 PM
6.0 IP 7 H 2 ER 3 BB 3 K 2 HR
Liz's ERA down to 1.80
AgentOrange
05-31-2006, 05:47 PM
6.0 IP 7 H 2 ER 3 BB 3 K 2 HR
Liz's ERA down to 1.80
How does Liz's ERA go down after 6IP and 2ER?
DoobyDoo
06-03-2006, 09:46 PM
Bad start for Liz tonight:
3 IP, 2 H, 5 R (4 ER), 4 BB, 2 K, 1 HRA
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2006_06_03_kinafa_frdafa_1
He's allowed at least one homerun in each of his last four starts. In those starts he's allowed 5 homeruns in 20 IP. Overall numbers in his last four starts:
4.50 ERA, 20 IP, 17 H, 13 R, 10 ER, 15 BB, 18 K, 5 HRA
May 19th: (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2006_05_19_kinafa_frdafa_1)
5 IP, 6 H, 4 R (2 ER), 4 BB, 5 K, 1 HRA
May 24th: (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2006_05_24_frdafa_wilafa_1)
6 IP, 2 H, 2 R (2 ER), 4 BB, 8 K, 1 HRA
May 29th: (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2006_05_29_salafa_frdafa_1)
6 IP, 7 H, 2 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HRA
June 3rd: (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2006_06_03_kinafa_frdafa_1)
3 IP, 2 H, 5 R (4 ER), 4 BB, 2 K, 1 HRA
He certainly hasn't been anywhere near as dominant as he was earlier in the season in his last few starts. Maybe he's going through a dead arm period or something?
mikezpen
06-04-2006, 12:29 PM
Or they're figuring him out. Maybe he's tipping pitches or throwing them only in certain counts.Maybe he doesn't throw a certain pitch for strikes very much and the batters have learned to lay off of it. You'll note that the walks are way up too.
Or, it could be that he's been instructed to work on-say-the change-up more regardless of the game situation. And he could be getting burned as he refines that particular pitch. The K's have dropped a lot too, so maybe he's not using the fastball as much as he did.
Perhaps it's best to leave him down there for awhile till these things can be worked out.
Sports Guy
06-04-2006, 12:55 PM
To me, Liz is the first top pitching prospect i would trade.
To me, Liz is the first top pitching prospect i would trade.
Not a bad idea, although not sure how much value he has. I'm thinking Liz could actually help us in the bullpen as early as next spring but I'm also thinking that the bullpen might be his future too. I think his recent mediocre outings are at least partly to do with working on a two seam fastball and his offspeed stuff. They wanted him to work deeper into the games by pitching to contact more. I kind of liked the Liz who was untouchable a little better. :rolleyes:
shoriole
06-04-2006, 09:18 PM
I spoke to a friend close to the scene. Told me they want Liz to improve his change up and slider. Said batters are bailing on his slider then it hooks back across the plate. However his change up is not as strong. This isn't my analysis just what I was told. My take is they want to send him to AA with 3 solid pitches but in this orginization you never know.
DoobyDoo
06-15-2006, 08:36 PM
Today:
5 IP, 4 H, 1 R (earned), 4 BB, 5 K
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2006_06_15_frdafa_wswafa_1
At least he didn't allow a homerun. That breaks the streak of five straight starts with at least one homerun allowed.
He's been human which I hope is more of a result of him working on his secondary pitches than a loss of stuff. I wouldn't mind a couple of those dominating starts with the high K totals though.
Lt Melmo
06-15-2006, 09:18 PM
He still needs to be promoted...
bigbird
06-15-2006, 09:28 PM
He needs to be traded while he's hot......
Sports Guy
06-15-2006, 09:54 PM
He needs to be traded while he's hot......
Totally agree.
DoobyDoo
06-15-2006, 09:56 PM
Why exactly? Wasn't it just a month ago when everyone was raving about Liz?
NewMarketSean
06-15-2006, 09:56 PM
He's in A ball. How much is he going to bring back in return?
He's in A ball. How much is he going to bring back in return?
Right. He's not bringing anything of impact back unless he's part of a package. I'm not against trading prospects for talent, just not the Jason Grimsley's or even the Joe Randa's of the world.
Totally agree.
Pretty quick to make that comment on a guy you've never seen pitch. Someone who some people liked better than Loewen this past offseason. Do you even know if he might be a better prospect than Loewen. Are you prepared to trade Loewen while his value might still be high?
bigbird
06-15-2006, 10:31 PM
Pretty quick to make that comment on a guy you've never seen pitch. Someone who some people liked better than Loewen this past offseason. Do you even know if he might be a better prospect than Loewen. Are you prepared to trade Loewen while his value might still be high?
They're the same age. If he was a better prospect why isn't he here now?
Avsfan
06-15-2006, 10:32 PM
The increase in walks scares me...although he might have gotten the memo that his fastball isn't going to get him promoted, and he's struggling with his breaking/offspead stuff.
They're the same age. If he was a better prospect why isn't he here now?
Are you serious? Is that the best way to rate prospects. Who gets to the majors at the younger age. That might work some of the time but I wouldn't make it a general rule. Liz has dominated at Frederick like Loewen could have only dreamed about. Doesn't make him better but he might be. Penn was pitching up here last year at 20 yo. There are plenty of people who like Loewen better even though he was only at Delmarva when he was 20. So if Loewen was as good as Penn then why wasn't he here when he was 20? That's a rhetorical question to show you the possible error in your original statement.
Sports Guy
06-15-2006, 11:30 PM
Pretty quick to make that comment on a guy you've never seen pitch. Someone who some people liked better than Loewen this past offseason. Do you even know if he might be a better prospect than Loewen. Are you prepared to trade Loewen while his value might still be high?
Sure, int he right deal.
Liz can't make it out of the 5th or 6th IP.
I think he has future star set up man or even closer written all over him...Certainly very valuable but i don't think it will be a starter and because his numbers are so good, you could probably put him a centerpiece in a deal for a guy like Nick Johnson.
Lt Melmo
06-16-2006, 02:53 AM
Wow, no sense. For a bunch of guys(cough SG cough) who think we need to trade for future talent and build up the farm system, why the hell would we trade a guy who's coming into his own as a legit prospect(and who always *was* a top 10 organizational prospect, let's not forget)? And if you don't think he'll ever be able to make it past the 5th, what makes you think any other team will?
God forbid a prospect is a year older than he should be. SG, why can't he be *our* future setup man or closer? Isn't your whole idea to trade our established players so we can compete later?
And what in the world makes you think his stamina can't improve? That's just nuts. And y'know, if he can't go further than 6 innings, if he can do what he's doing right now on the ML level over 6 innings, that's still a damn good 4th or 5th starter.
Jeez, for serious, there isn't a single player in the O's organization that is safe from trade discussion on this board. Someone here had it right a couple weeks ago: Every time an Oriole sucks, someone here says trade him; every time an Oriole does well, someone says trade him...
bmorechop
06-16-2006, 03:00 AM
Jeez, for serious, there isn't a single player in the O's organization that is safe from trade discussion on this board.
And that's the correct sentiment IMO. If you can get a young ML talent by packaging some of these prospects, then the O's should do it. Liz seems extremely exciting, but there is a very low probability that he is going to make it (nothing against him, just the odds). If the O's can trade him (plus others?) to improve the team for now and the next few years, then the O's should do it.
They're the same age. If he was a better prospect why isn't he here now?
Well he's considered to be the better prospect on this site's ratings. At least going into the year, and I don't think much has happened to change that.
And I guess Fio was a better prospect than Nick last year because he was the one called up.
Lt Melmo
06-16-2006, 03:33 AM
And that's the correct sentiment IMO. If you can get a young ML talent by packaging some of these prospects, then the O's should do it. Liz seems extremely exciting, but there is a very low probability that he is going to make it (nothing against him, just the odds). If the O's can trade him (plus others?) to improve the team for now and the next few years, then the O's should do it.
I'm sorry, what evidence shows that he isn't likely to make it? He's ranked as a top 10 prospect, and if he continues to dominate and progress at a steady rate, he'll be in the top 5. So why in the world wouldn't he be able to make it to the show?
And again, I'll say it: if you guys really think he's playing better than he is, or that he won't make it, why would a professional scout think of him differently?
bmorechop
06-16-2006, 03:40 AM
I'm sorry, what evidence shows that he isn't likely to make it? He's ranked as a top 10 prospect, and if he continues to dominate and progress at a steady rate, he'll be in the top 5. So why in the world wouldn't he be able to make it to the show?
And again, I'll say it: if you guys really think he's playing better than he is, or that he won't make it, why would a professional scout think of him differently?
I think you're misunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm not saying anything about his core talents, I'm saying that a relatively high percentage of top pitching prospects get seriously injured, never learn to adequately command their pitches, never develop out pitches, etc. and thus do not have decent major league careers (many basically have no major league career). It has little to do with the pitchers raw talent and obviously that's certainly true regarding injury. The article that Drungo posted uses a lot of data and analyses to make this point (I think that's what the article says, I didn't read it tonight!). Some of the posters might be saying that Liz is not really a super stud, but that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying regardless of his talent he is likely to blow out his arm, not progress as projected, etc., so the highest probability of "success" from Liz and other pitching prospects is to trade them for young ML talent that is already reaching their potential. There's just a higher probability that they are going to have a successful career. Many teams trade these players as they approach arbitration or free agency years.
utvolzac
06-16-2006, 05:08 AM
I'm sorry, what evidence shows that he isn't likely to make it? He's ranked as a top 10 prospect, and if he continues to dominate and progress at a steady rate, he'll be in the top 5. So why in the world wouldn't he be able to make it to the show?
And again, I'll say it: if you guys really think he's playing better than he is, or that he won't make it, why would a professional scout think of him differently?
So what? The minor league system is choked full of former Top 10 prospects who've never panned out. Guys ranked #1 in their organization have gone on to be busts before. Being in the top 10 doesn't mean he's a lock for anything.
If he can be packed for a young, PROVEN mlb talent, why wouldn't you trade him.
Not that I'm for trading him, I haven't seen him yet, but he's not untouchable.
bigbird
06-16-2006, 08:47 AM
So what? The minor league system is choked full of former Top 10 prospects who've never panned out. Guys ranked #1 in their organization have gone on to be busts before. Being in the top 10 doesn't mean he's a lock for anything.
If he can be packed for a young, PROVEN mlb talent, why wouldn't you trade him.
Not that I'm for trading him, I haven't seen him yet, but he's not untouchable.
Exactly......Wouldn't it have been nicve to have packaged that Riley, can't miss kid a few years back for a young major league talent?
Exactly......Wouldn't it have been nicve to have packaged that Riley, can't miss kid a few years back for a young major league talent?
The line you quoted said packaged. Riley by himself wouldn't have gotten a young talented ML player. Just like Liz by himself won't get what you are looking for. Liz by himself will get you a player who's just as much a question mark, or maybe a little less so than Liz. Straight up you're likely to get a medicore ML talent. So sure if you want to package Liz & Reimold you might be able to get a pretty good young player. To get a really good young player you'll have to add one more probably.
NewMarketSean
06-16-2006, 10:19 AM
The difference is, Riley was dominating at AA and one of the top pitching prospects in all of the MLB. Liz is not.
For those you think prospects are a crapshoot and should be used for trades I'll give you a little more ammunition. When Riley was a prospect, the three can't miss LH pitchers in the minors were Rick Ankiel, Ryan Anderson, and Matt Riley. Pretty much in that order I think. Guess they missed. Andersen & Riley with injuries and Ankiel, well you know.
utvolzac
06-16-2006, 07:49 PM
I was looking back at the Orioles Hangout top prospect lists in the archives.
1999
1. Matt Riley, SP
2. Calvin Pickering 1B
3. Jayson Werth, C
4. Brian Falkenborg, SP
5. Luis Matos, OF
6. BJ Ryan, RP
7. Darnell McDonald, OF
8. Sean Douglass, SP
9. John Stephens, SP
10. Rick Elder, 1B
200
1. Keith Reed, OF
2. Richard Stahl, LHP
3. Edward Rogers, SS
4. Luis Rivera, RHP
5. Papy Ndungidi, LF
6. Juan Figueroa, RHP
7. Josh Towers, RHP
8. Larry Bigbie, OF
9. Tripper Johnson, 3B
10. Erik Bedard, LHP
After 6-7 years of development, the majority of these guys haven't even made it to the major league level, much less contribute. Odds are that a guy like Liz will be just another name in the system in a few years. If you can get a proven major leaguer for him, you do it.
I've always believed that the point of having a good farm system was to package prospects to bring in proven talent. You take a select few who you really believe in (guys who are among the top 100 prospects in baseball) and hold onto them. The rest you package and use to upgrade the team.
I was looking back at the Orioles Hangout top prospect lists in the archives.
1999
1. Matt Riley, SP
2. Calvin Pickering 1B
3. Jayson Werth, C
4. Brian Falkenborg, SP
5. Luis Matos, OF
6. BJ Ryan, RP
7. Darnell McDonald, OF
8. Sean Douglass, SP
9. John Stephens, SP
10. Rick Elder, 1B
200
1. Keith Reed, OF
2. Richard Stahl, LHP
3. Edward Rogers, SS
4. Luis Rivera, RHP
5. Papy Ndungidi, LF
6. Juan Figueroa, RHP
7. Josh Towers, RHP
8. Larry Bigbie, OF
9. Tripper Johnson, 3B
10. Erik Bedard, LHP
After 6-7 years of development, the majority of these guys haven't even made it to the major league level, much less contribute. Odds are that a guy like Liz will be just another name in the system in a few years. If you can get a proven major leaguer for him, you do it.
I've always believed that the point of having a good farm system was to package prospects to bring in proven talent. You take a select few who you really believe in (guys who are among the top 100 prospects in baseball) and hold onto them. The rest you package and use to upgrade the team.
You could be right but you're making a big mistake using our top ten's when our farm system was possibly the worst in baseball and using that as a reason why most of them won't make it. They system is much stronger now and the prospects, for the most part, are simply better than back then.
Avsfan
07-01-2006, 01:17 PM
I'm not happy with the drop in K's...and increase in BB.
Has he become too fixiated on his breaking stuff?
RShack
07-01-2006, 02:07 PM
OK - maddeningly! (duh - :rolleyes: ) Doggone fingers move faster than my brain sometimes.
Well... it *is* a funny word, in that you hear it said more than you see it written. I read a lot, and I don't know if I've *ever* seen it written before. I had to stare at the mis-typing for a while, just to figure out what it should have been...
mikezpen
07-01-2006, 03:00 PM
Avsfan, maybe Liz sees some other Orioles pitchers that made it to the Majors w/no command of their breaking pitches and no change-up-read Daniel Cabrera and also Erik Bedard to a degree-and watched them struggle. And maybe the kid would rather develop these things now. If so, he's bring smart even though it creates a big drop-off in his numbers.
Ironusher
07-02-2006, 10:41 AM
You talk about trading young players for "proven players". Just remember the Glenn Davis trade. Talk about shooting yourself(the team) in the foot.
MurphDogg
07-02-2006, 01:54 PM
You talk about trading young players for "proven players". Just remember the Glenn Davis trade. Talk about shooting yourself(the team) in the foot.
That's like comparing apples and washing machines. Liz is at SINGLE A. The Glenn Davis trade involved three major leaguers. I'm tired of hearing it brought up constantly.
That's like comparing apples and washing machines. Liz is at SINGLE A. The Glenn Davis trade involved three major leaguers. I'm tired of hearing it brought up constantly.
Ok, then remember the A.J. Pierzynski trade! :D
Ironusher
07-03-2006, 01:22 PM
That's like comparing apples and washing machines. Liz is at SINGLE A. The Glenn Davis trade involved three major leaguers. I'm tired of hearing it brought up constantly. A bad move or trade anywhere is not good. Minors or majors it doesn,t matter.:SuN034:
AgentOrange
07-03-2006, 02:00 PM
The difference is, Riley was dominating at AA and one of the top pitching prospects in all of the MLB. Liz is not.
When?
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Matt-Riley.shtml
snatch311
07-03-2006, 02:28 PM
That age 20 season was pretty freaking good. Better than Penn did.
AgentOrange
07-03-2006, 02:31 PM
That age 20 season was pretty freaking good. Better than Penn did.
Right, but Penn is getting better, Riley didn't.
snatch311
07-03-2006, 02:37 PM
Well, that's the unfortunate difference between those years and these. Back then, if you had a pulse you had an arm injury.
oriole_way
07-03-2006, 03:26 PM
I know Riley was supposedly a head case but you gotta feel bad for a guy who has had to undergo 3 ligament replacement surgeries.
Mark Carver
07-04-2006, 09:06 AM
From The Sun (dated 06/30) - Q&A with Scott McGregor (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-mcgregor0629,0,7419473.story?coll=bal-utility-baseball)
Mike, Rochester, N.Y.: When will Fernando Liz be called up from Single-A? I have seen that has been doing very well and I have heard the scouts think he could be pretty good.
Scott McGregor: Liz will be a big part of our future young arms and is coming along fine just where he is. He has to command his pitches a little better so let him dominate in Frederick before he comes to Bowie.
mikezpen
07-04-2006, 10:01 AM
Liz hasn't done that well of late. Maybe it's because he's using his breaking ball and changeup, more, and he's still learning to control them.
oriole_way
07-04-2006, 01:42 PM
I think he is averaging about 4.6 walks per 9 this year (last I checked) so I can understand leaving him there for a while. Plus, he just turned 23 (6/10/83). So even if he spends the rest of the year at Delmarva, the entire next year at AA and the following year at AAA, he would be 25 on opening day of 2009.
blazer
07-04-2006, 02:09 PM
Given the fact that the O's have frequently brought up pitchers directly from AA the last couple years, I think the reasoning behind keeping him in Fredrick is to allow him to completely dominate in AA once he is promoted. The reality is that once he is in Bowie he could be called up at any point. Sounds like he is just getting some command issues worked out with his extra pitches and should be doing that in A+, rather than AA.
In terms of when he will make his ML debut though, I think it will be some point next season, as he should be starting the year in AA.
GoBirds05
07-12-2006, 02:01 AM
When is this young gentleman's next start, please.
mikezpen
07-12-2006, 02:14 PM
Come to think of it, he hasn't pitched in quite awhile in Frederick as I recall.
Come to think of it, he hasn't pitched in quite awhile in Frederick as I recall.
He was on turn at Frederick, and then I just pitched 2/3 IP at the Futures game. He struck out one batter and got Reimold to fly out to LF on a 3-2 pitch. Not sure when he's supposed to start again but he's just fine, as far as I know.
delaware bird
07-12-2006, 02:41 PM
2000
1. Keith Reed, OF
2. Richard Stahl, LHP
3. Edward Rogers, SS
4. Luis Rivera, RHP
5. Papy Ndungidi, LF
6. Juan Figueroa, RHP
7. Josh Towers, RHP
8. Larry Bigbie, OF
9. Tripper Johnson, 3B
10. Erik Bedard, LHP
I've always believed that the point of having a good farm system was to package prospects to bring in proven talent. You take a select few who you really believe in (guys who are among the top 100 prospects in baseball) and hold onto them. The rest you package and use to upgrade the team.
Using that logic, you probably would have traded Bedard because he was 'rated' lower than Stahl.
You don't trade away young minor league talent unless:
1) you are in playoff contention and need a piece
2) you have a glut of players at that position (pitchers aside)
3) you are getting a honey of a deal
For the Orioles, given the economic world in the American League east, the minor league system IS the only realistic route to success. Trading the pieces away for a player here and a player there is death by a thousand cuts.
Using that logic, you probably would have traded Bedard because he was 'rated' lower than Stahl.
You don't trade away young minor league talent unless:
1) you are in playoff contention and need a piece
2) you have a glut of players at that position (pitchers aside)
3) you are getting a honey of a deal
For the Orioles, given the economic world in the American League east, the minor league system IS the only realistic route to success. Trading the pieces away for a player here and a player there is death by a thousand cuts.
Depends who you are trading them for. If you're trading one young player for another, then I don't see the problem. I agree, the O's are in no position yet to be packaging top prospects for a veteran player.
Ironusher
07-13-2006, 10:43 AM
Radhames Liz has been promoted to Bowie.
Radhames Liz has been promoted to Bowie.
Good. This should be interesting.
blazer
07-15-2006, 09:20 PM
Kyle Schmidt has been promoted to Delmarva! This will be good to see him face tougher competition.
Anybody know who is going from Delmarva to Fredrick to replace Liz, and make room for Schmidt?