Loewen unimpressive again

[vab]

Four innings, 5 earned runs for Loewen tonight. He got bombed in the 1st inning with back to back homers and it could have been worse if he hadn't gotten a double play just before the home runs. He then settled down in the 2nd and 3rd before falling apart again in the 4th. A batter reached on a dribbler to the right side when Loewen couldn't get to 1st base on a ball the 1st baseman went too far to try to get. The batter ended up on 2nd on an error. Then a flare fell just in front of the right fielder which was followed by a couple of walks and the night was done for Loewen.


Loewen is not showing many signs that he will be ready for anything other than mop up duties by next year. The Orioles should be seriously considering trading him, possibly for another top position player prospect from an organization that is desperate for pitching and might be willing to take a chance on getting Loewen ready by next year.

[DoobyDoo]

Loewen is not showing many signs that he will be ready for anything other than mop up duties by next year.

It's not like we have many good left-handed relief prospects anyways so I wouldn't mind that. Maybe he could be our version of Andy Sisco (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/andy-sisco.shtml) next year? The only difference being that Loewen, as long as he stays healthy, will have had the benefit of having a full year above single A.

[Sports Guy]

Loewen is not showing many signs that he will be ready for anything other than mop up duties by next year. The Orioles should be seriously considering trading him, possibly for another top position player prospect from an organization that is desperate for pitching and might be willing to take a chance on getting Loewen ready by next year.


So, his great first outing is not a good sign?

[Mackus]

Trading Loewen would be a terrible decision.

[Skywalker76]

Trading Loewen would be a terrible decision.

He'd be our next sort of "Schilling nightmare" if we did this. He still has a full season ahead of him to get things straight.

[kidpoker88]

He'd be our next sort of "Schilling nightmare" if we did this. He still has a full season ahead of him to get things straight.

Agree. He still is fairly young for AA and he is going to have some good outings and some bad outings. Lets take some good from his season so far. The biggest factor to consider is the # of walks, which aren't as high as I would have thought. We can't trade him. Let's not forget his start against the US in the WBC. The man will be a stud :002_scool:

[mcneck]

If he is traded you will have to get a stud in return. Maybe he's a part of a M.Cabrera package. I still hope they dont traade him.

[Mackus]

If he is traded you will have to get a stud in return. Maybe he's a part of a M.Cabrera package. I still hope they dont traade him.
Obviously you move him if he brings back something that good, but I don't think thats likely.

I don't think he's highly rated enough to be the top prospect in a deal for someone like Cabrera or whatever other talent becomes available this year.

I think he's really going to break out this year and be ready to contribute at least in the bullpen next season.

[wayne25]

it only takes one team that loves the guy ..He and Penn as a start for Dontrelle Willis , if he really is on the move.

[mikezpen]

I think people are unjustifiably hung up on this guy because he was a 4th draft pick, the Orioles spent a lot of money on him and he's gotten skaads of publicity. But look at what he's actually accomplished and it's not there. Except for on occasional spectacular performance as he did a week or so ago, the guy's been mediocre at best, and often not even that. He basically can't throw strikes consistently, nor can he put the ball where he wants it in the strike zone. Plus, he's another guy with potential shoulder problems.

I would have unloaded him over the winter. The longer you wait now, the less he'll be worth unless he turns things around. And the odds look increasingly long against his doing that. Everybody will get excited over an occasional good outing, and then wilt as he turns in 2 or 3 lousy ones. I think that's what you'll get with him.

[RZNJ]

Obviously you move him if he brings back something that good, but I don't think thats likely.

I don't think he's highly rated enough to be the top prospect in a deal for someone like Cabrera or whatever other talent becomes available this year.

I think he's really going to break out this year and be ready to contribute at least in the bullpen next season.


Not so sure about the bolded part, but I agree with everything else. I also agree with Mikezpen that Loewen wouldn't be getting near the publicity he gets if he wasn't the #4 overall pick. Poor James Johnson. He outperforms Loewen every single year and gets mentioned about 1/4 as much. Loewen's first start was very encouraging but reports of less than impressive velocity and the way he's been hit his last two starts make me question his raw stuff.

[Frobby]

I think people are unjustifiably hung up on this guy because he was a 4th draft pick, the Orioles spent a lot of money on him and he's gotten skaads of publicity. But look at what he's actually accomplished and it's not there. Except for on occasional spectacular performance as he did a week or so ago, the guy's been mediocre at best, and often not even that.

I would respond with my usual litany of how Loewen had 8 bad starts last year, all coming the three short blocks, and an ERA under 2.00 in his other 26 starts. But if I went into those details Tony would rightfully get on my case for repeating the same detailed post once a month.

Look at it this way: Loewen is the minor league version of Cabrera. Not the same velocity, but the same level of dominating stuff when he is on, same control issues, same erratic performance. He's just as good a bet to get his act together as Cabrera is.

[McLovin]

God I hate these threads. You can almost set your watch to it. As soon as Loewen has a bad start, NO MATTER HOW MANY GOOD ONES PRECEEDED IT - someone will post almost word for word what vab did.

So what if he had his first really good season last year (career high for innings too), then was the most dominant pitcher in the AZ fall league, then shut down the ML dream team in the WBC, and then almost threw a no-hitter in his FIRST EVER AA START?!

Yeah, trade him now. He's regressed so much from this time last year. Clearly he doesn't get it.

[mikezpen]

Loewen also averaged about 5 walks per 9 innings in Az.

[McLovin]

Loewen also averaged about 5 walks per 9 innings in Az.
And my life is probably half over - might as well just give up now I guess.

[66-70-83-??]

God I hate these threads. You can almost set your watch to it. As soon as Loewen has a bad start, NO MATTER HOW MANY GOOD ONES PRECEEDED IT - someone will post almost word for word what vab did.

So what if he had his first really good season last year (career high for innings too), then was the most dominant pitcher in the AZ fall league, then shut down the ML dream team in the WBC, and then almost threw a no-hitter in his FIRST EVER AA START?!

Yeah, trade him now. He's regressed so much from this time last year. Clearly he doesn't get it.

I could turn the tables on you:

For every post where someone points out the large gap between Loewens hype and his actual performance- there are two Loewen apologist posts who have to stretch the bounds of reality to tell how good he really is.

First problem is that there never has been a stretch where a bunch of good starts preceded a bad start. That IS the problem with a kid who throw 95+, has good stuff, and was the 4th pick in the entire draft, and held out for a record amount.......those qualifiers (great stuff, 95+mph, hold-out a year for record bonus, etc...) add EXPECTATIONS, and rightfully so.

He has NOT lived up to it and continues to disappoint.

First good season last year ? A 4.12 ERA, 1.52 WHIP is considered "good" in "A" ball ? Considering it is only "A" ball- I would consider it mediocre, at best, especially for a guy who has #1 stuff and is supposed to be a #1 starter down the road.

Shut down the MLB dream team ? With 3 hits, 3 BB's, and no K's in 3 IP's- I would say his fielders shut them down, not him.

The bottom line is that he IS a disappointment. He IS underacheiving.

[Scotto]

If Loewen is traded, wouldn't his new team be required to keep him in ML next year or lose him? My guess is no team would be willing to give up very much with those conditions. Let's see what happens through the first half here before we ship him off for a journeyman minor leaguer.

[NewMarketSean]

This may not sound like me, but everyone needs to relax when it comes to Loewen. So he's had 2 bad games back to back....

What were his walks like? As long as he keeps those down and throws the ball over the plate, he will learn how to get batters out.

I just wish there was a way to get him some time with Mazzone.

[McLovin]

66 - I would definitely support your statement that there are plenty of 'Loewen = Cy Young' type threads when he does well. Probably quite a few from the same people who want to trade him today (not singling anyone out).

I definitely disagree that he is a failure. We're talking about a high school pick here. All he's done every year is progress. What more can you ask for? He's been dominant at times, and ineffective at others. He's going to be inconsistent for a few more years, and I'm ok with that.

As for last year being a succes, it was by a large measure. He pitched his most innings ever, overcame a labrum injury, and had one of the most dominant GB/FB ratios (a very important measure) in the minors.

So long as he gets in about 150 innings this year, with a decent ERA and good ratios, I'll be happy. And even if he doesn't, I'll still want to see things through with him.

[DocJJ]

How can he be so good one day, and so awful the next? He's infuriating. If you can get a grade A player in return, deal him so he can infuriate some other organization.

[PaulFolk]

How can he be so good one day, and so awful the next?
Yep. I'll bet he's the only prospect in the history of the game to ever do this.

[Sports Guy]

it only takes one team that loves the guy ..He and Penn as a start for Dontrelle Willis , if he really is on the move.


LOl...No thanks. Domtrelle is a little overrated.

[Frobby]

66 - I would definitely support your statement that there are plenty of 'Loewen = Cy Young' type threads when he does well. Probably quite a few from the same people who want to trade him today (not singling anyone out).

I definitely disagree that he is a failure. We're talking about a high school pick here. All he's done every year is progress. What more can you ask for? He's been dominant at times, and ineffective at others. He's going to be inconsistent for a few more years, and I'm ok with that.

As for last year being a succes, it was by a large measure. He pitched his most innings ever, overcame a labrum injury, and had one of the most dominant GB/FB ratios (a very important measure) in the minors.

So long as he gets in about 150 innings this year, with a decent ERA and good ratios, I'll be happy. And even if he doesn't, I'll still want to see things through with him.

This is a very good, balanced post. We all wish Loewen were more consistent and had progressed faster. There is no doubt that he hasn't come along as quickly as we might have hoped for a no. 4 pick in the draft. It's certainly possible that he will never develop the consistent command that he will need to perform well in the majors. And we don't have the luxury of leaving him in the minors in 2007.

With all that said, this is a kid who (1) was the most dominant pitcher in the Arizona Fall League, (2) shut out the U.S. national team in the WBC over 4 innings, (3) already pitched a game this year where he allowed one hit and one other fly ball while recording 23 outs via strikeout or ground out. And he just turned 22 about a week ago! At the same age, Daniel Cabrera was getting smacked around -- at Delmarva! And 12 months later he was in the majors. You don't give up easily on kids with talent like this, even though they may never realize their potential.

[Sports Guy]

He hasn't progressed like we thought?

I am very happy by his progress. He will be here next year and will prove that he belongs.

To call him a failure is a joke IMO.

Had he not had the labrum problem, he may be in Baltimore right now.

His K rate, HR rate and GB/fb ratio are way more important than his ERA.

[RZNJ]

This is a very good, balanced post. We all wish Loewen were more consistent and had progressed faster. There is no doubt that he hasn't come along as quickly as we might have hoped for a no. 4 pick in the draft. It's certainly possible that he will never develop the consistent command that he will need to perform well in the majors. And we don't have the luxury of leaving him in the minors in 2007.

With all that said, this is a kid who (1) was the most dominant pitcher in the Arizona Fall League, (2) shut out the U.S. national team in the WBC over 4 innings, (3) already pitched a game this year where he allowed one hit and one other fly ball while recording 23 outs via strikeout or ground out. And he just turned 22 about a week ago! At the same age, Daniel Cabrera was getting smacked around -- at Delmarva! And 12 months later he was in the majors. You don't give up easily on kids with talent like this, even though they may never realize their potential.


Counterpoint. Loewen may have been the most dominant pitcher in the AFL but he wasn't what I would call dominant. Also, most clubs don't send top pitching prospects to the AFL so there weren't too many there. Also, I believe his AFL season consisted of about 20 IP.

Yes, he did shutout the U.S. team for 3.1 IP. I believe almost every pitcher, excluding the South African team, shut them down also. The U.S. team obviously was not on their game and although the bottom line was good, his pitching line of 3 H & 3 BB with no K's wasn't real pretty.

I'll buy that his first start in AA was dominant but I also see that he got smacked around in his next two. Can we compare Loewen to Cabrera? Maybe. I'm seen people refer to his mid 90's fastball. And yet, over and over again, we get reports of 90-91 all of last year from the HO itself. We see at the WBC that he never cracked 90. We get reports from fans, this year, of Loewen pitching 88-91 on the radar gun. We get reports of Mazzone questioning why Loewen is throwing like a finesse pitcher in ST. There is a lot of smoke there for there to be no fire, IMO. I'm not giving up on him or requesting a trade. I'm just saying that there are too many red flags to just assume that Loewen is going to become a dominant pitcher. He may become a ML pitcher but I doubt he becomes a frontline starting pitcher unless he makes some major changes and I don't see any signs of it.

[Frobby]

Counterpoint....

I'm seen people refer to his mid 90's fastball. And yet, over and over again, we get reports of 90-91 all of last year from the HO itself. We see at the WBC that he never cracked 90. We get reports from fans, this year, of Loewen pitching 88-91 on the radar gun...

I will buy everything else you said in your post, but I really don't care what the radar gun says. You don't strike out 12 guys and induce 11 ground outs unless your stuff is very tough to hit for whatever reason, whether velocity, movement or something else. I'm far more worried about Loewen's command than I am about what the radar gun says.

[66-70-83-??]

66 - I would definitely support your statement that there are plenty of 'Loewen = Cy Young' type threads when he does well. Probably quite a few from the same people who want to trade him today (not singling anyone out).

I definitely disagree that he is a failure. We're talking about a high school pick here. All he's done every year is progress. What more can you ask for? He's been dominant at times, and ineffective at others. He's going to be inconsistent for a few more years, and I'm ok with that.

As for last year being a succes, it was by a large measure. He pitched his most innings ever, overcame a labrum injury, and had one of the most dominant GB/FB ratios (a very important measure) in the minors.

So long as he gets in about 150 innings this year, with a decent ERA and good ratios, I'll be happy. And even if he doesn't, I'll still want to see things through with him.

I never said he was a "failure".

What I said was:


The bottom line is that he IS a disappointment. He IS underacheiving.

His career isn't over yet and he can still turn it around. But, the Orioles can NOT be happy with the progression of his career to this point.

[RZNJ]

I will buy everything else you said in your post, but I really don't care what the radar gun says. You don't strike out 12 guys and induce 11 ground outs unless your stuff is very tough to hit for whatever reason, whether velocity, movement or something else. I'm far more worried about Loewen's command than I am about what the radar gun says.

I could go back and find out 11 or 12 K games from John Stephens too. I'll take command and movement over velocity but it seems as though we have continuously gotten conflicting reports about Loewen's velocity. Would your opinion of him change if you learned that he consistently threw 89-90 instead of 93-94? If you are going strictly by numbers then you must consider J.J. Johnson better than Loewen. Right?

[Gaz]

I personally think he needs to get away from Mcgregor and with Mazzone ASAP to get his mechanics back in order. I don't know why they sent him right to minor league camp after the WBC. They should of left him up with the big guys to get some more work with Mazzone.

Either way, if he get's to work with him soon or has to wait until later this summer, I'm sure things will work out for him. He will bounce back, it's still early in the year. Atleast he's gotten hit in his last to games and hasn't really walked the park. 4 walks in 16.1 innings isn't horrible to go with 20 k's, and it's a good sign for a pitcher with control problems to be getting hit if you know what I mean.

[RZNJ]

I personally think he needs to get away from Mcgregor and with Mazzone ASAP to get his mechanics back in order. I don't know why they sent him right to minor league camp after the WBC. They should of left him up with the big guys to get some more work with Mazzone.

Either way, if he get's to work with him soon or has to wait until later this summer, I'm sure things will work out for him. He will bounce back, it's still early in the year. Atleast he's gotten hit in his last to games and hasn't really walked the park. 4 walks in 16.1 innings isn't horrible to go with 20 k's, and it's a good sign for a pitcher with control problems to be getting hit if you know what I mean.


I agree 100%. I said something similar previously although I'll admit my theory (and apparently yours) on McGregor is just speculation.

[sonderweg]

I would respond with my usual litany of how Loewen had 8 bad starts last year, all coming the three short blocks, and an ERA under 2.00 in his other 26 starts. But if I went into those details Tony would rightfully get on my case for repeating the same detailed post once a month.
is.

Unless you were exaggerating, I'd also wonder where you got those figures, since Loewen only had 27 total starts last year:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/adam-loewen.shtml

[Sports Guy]

I

His career isn't over yet and he can still turn it around. But, the Orioles can NOT be happy with the progression of his career to this point.


This is bs. He is exactly where he should.

[Gaz]

I don't know McGregor at all but Adam just doesn't pitch like he used to. I see the changes in his mechanics and it's night and day compared to a few years ago. If Mazzone wants him to be a power pitcher, then he needs to start working with him to get back the 93-95 mph fastball he had as an 18 year old. No offense to McGregor, he obviously knows a lot more then I do, but his stuff doesn't seem to be working to well for Loewen.

[RZNJ]

This is bs. He is exactly where he should.


How can you say he's exactly where he should be? Loewen was supposed to be a polished pitcher when he signed. He likely would have made it up to Frederick at the start of 2004 or at least by the halfway mark, and then would have pitched at Bowie in 2005. He's probably a year behind what the team originally had hoped for, although they might not admit it. Also, there's no doubt the Orioles did not expect him to be the project that he has become. Perhaps he's over his control problems now, but it's something the team never envisioned, at least not to the extent that the problem existed. He has not exactly where he should be although it's not the end of the world.

[Sports Guy]

How can you say he's exactly where he should be? Loewen was supposed to be a polished pitcher when he signed. He likely would have made it up to Frederick at the start of 2004 or at least by the halfway mark, and then would have pitched at Bowie in 2005. He's probably a year behind what the team originally had hoped for, although they might not admit it. Also, there's no doubt the Orioles did not expect him to be the project that he has become. Perhaps he's over his control problems now, but it's something the team never envisioned, at least not to the extent that the problem existed. He has not exactly where he should be although it's not the end of the world.


He had a labrum problem that held him back.

He is in perfect position to be here next year and maybe by the end of this year.

[RZNJ]

I don't know McGregor at all but Adam just doesn't pitch like he used to. I see the changes in his mechanics and it's night and day compared to a few years ago. If Mazzone wants him to be a power pitcher, then he needs to start working with him to get back the 93-95 mph fastball he had as an 18 year old. No offense to McGregor, he obviously knows a lot more then I do, but his stuff doesn't seem to be working to well for Loewen.


The question is, when did things change? I don't believe he worked with McGregor full-time until 2004 at Frederick. So Loewen's struggles with inconsistency, control, and his end of year labrum problem, all pretty much occurred before McGregor as far as I can tell. McGregor, FWIW, has gotten him to be more consistent and more controlled. Unfortunatley, if you put two and two together, it seems as though he's changed his mechanics and sapped his velocity a bit in order to do so. Could he have achieved these things with his old mechanics? I already know your answer Gaz. There's no doubt that Mazzone wanted to tinker with Loewen in ST, and yet Adam was sent down as soon as the WBC was over. There's an interesting story in there somewhere.

[RZNJ]

He had a labrum problem that held him back.

He is in perfect position to be here next year and maybe by the end of this year.


How did the labrum injury hold him back? It happend at the end of 2003 and he was ready to go for the 2004 season. He's on schedule to be on the team in 2007. That doesn't mean he's on the original schedule projected for him.

[Frobby]

I could go back and find out 11 or 12 K games from John Stephens too. I'll take command and movement over velocity but it seems as though we have continuously gotten conflicting reports about Loewen's velocity. Would your opinion of him change if you learned that he consistently threw 89-90 instead of 93-94? If you are going strictly by numbers then you must consider J.J. Johnson better than Loewen. Right?

I won't take the bait.....I have no idea who will be the best among Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, James Johnson, Garrett Olson and Radhames Liz. If I had a AA game to win tomorrow, and my choices were J.J. Johnson and Adam Loewen, I would pick Johnson. At the end of this year, who is the better bet to be ready for the major leagues? Not clear cut, but I'd bet on Loewen if you put a gun to my head. Who is more likely to be a dominant starter in the majors in 2009? Much more likely to be Loewen. But I'm not going to pretend that I really know, having never seen either of them pitch.

[McLovin]

How did the labrum injury hold him back? It happend at the end of 2003 and he was ready to go for the 2004 season. He's on schedule to be on the team in 2007. That doesn't mean he's on the original schedule projected for him.
It happened late 2004 and was still a question mark going into last year. He's only a year or so removed from the throwing program. I don't think it's held him back much though.

With regard to his mechanics, I can't imagine us not taking a look at him in the majors this year, so hopefully he'll spend some time with Leo and it will all be a moot point.

[Sports Guy]

How did the labrum injury hold him back? It happend at the end of 2003 and he was ready to go for the 2004 season. He's on schedule to be on the team in 2007. That doesn't mean he's on the original schedule projected for him.

My bad...I was thinking he missed some time due to it.

Oh well, he is likely still where he should be. Maybe he should be in Ottawa but i think he will be there by July anyway, so it really does not matter.

The idea is he is supposed to be ready to contribute in the ML by 2007 and he will.

[Gaz]

I worked out with Adams best friend this fall and early spring. He is a catcher in the White Sox organization and played on our team with Adam and also went to Chipola with Adam. He says that in college, his mechanics were the same as they were in high school. I'm not sure who changed him but for the past couple years he's been with McGregor and they seem to be content with the way he's throwing now (mechanically). Hey, I'm not acting like I know for a fact that he would be better off throwing with his old mechanics, all I'm saying is, he threw harder and more strikes in high school and college the old way. His early struggles could of been from the so called "labrum tear" and nerves and then loss of confidence. Now he has some confidence back, and is throwing more strikes. Maybe it's just taken him a while to get used to the new mechanics and now that he has them figured out (control wise, so it seems), his velocity will increase to what it used to be. Who knows, I'm still confused about the throwing across the body thing.

[McLovin]

Counterpoint. Loewen may have been the most dominant pitcher in the AFL but he wasn't what I would call dominant. Also, most clubs don't send top pitching prospects to the AFL so there weren't too many there. Also, I believe his AFL season consisted of about 20 IP.
Yes, they also send their best hitting prospects there too. Everyone would agree that it's a hitter's league. The fact that he did well says a ton.


Yes, he did shutout the U.S. team for 3.1 IP. I believe almost every pitcher, excluding the South African team, shut them down also. The U.S. team obviously was not on their game and although the bottom line was good, his pitching line of 3 H & 3 BB with no K's wasn't real pretty.
I don't think he could have done much better. And there were a few nice comments from the hitters (Jeter in particular) that said more about his effort than the numbers.


I'm just saying that there are too many red flags to just assume that Loewen is going to become a dominant pitcher.Red flags? I think the positives definitely outweigh the negatives. If it weren't for the scrutiny of being a #1 pick who held out, everyone would be more than thrilled with what Loewen has done.

[McLovin]

I'm still confused about the throwing across the body thing.What did you think of his motion in the WBC? Was it over the top, or across the body?

[RZNJ]

Yes, they also send their best hitting prospects there too. Everyone would agree that it's a hitter's league. The fact that he did well says a ton.

I acknowleged that he pitched well in the AFL. I questioned whether he was domimanat there.


I don't think he could have done much better. And there were a few nice comments from the hitters (Jeter in particular) that said more about his effort than the numbers.

Jeter said some nice things. What did you expect? He could have done better than 3 BB and no K's. Should I research the Japanese, Korean, and Mexican pitchers who also shut down the U.S. team? Are you predicting ML success for all of them too?



Red flags? I think the positives definitely outweigh the negatives. If it weren't for the scrutiny of being a #1 pick who held out, everyone would be more than thrilled with what Loewen has done.

Yes. Red flags. Talk about flawed mechanics and lost velocity. From fans, this website, radar readings, and Leo Mazzone himself. If Loewen had been a 7th round pick we'd be thrilled with the promise he's shown. You know what? He wasn't a 7th round pick. He was the #4 pick overall with high expectations, a ML contract, and he came with descriptions by scouts of being a polished pitcher with great stuff. His first season in Delmarva was not that of a polished pitcher and now there is some question regarding the great stuff. I didn't notice you trying to tackle any of those points.

[Gaz]

What did you think of his motion in the WBC? Was it over the top, or across the body?


I thought it was odd. Not much of a leg kick, hunched over at the shoulders, and throwing WAY across his body. Adam is 6'6 and was pitching like he was 5'8. He needs to use his size to his advantage.

[RZNJ]

I thought it was odd. Not much of a leg kick, hunched over at the shoulders, and throwing WAY across his body. Adam is 6'6 and was pitching like he was 5'8. He needs to use his size to his advantage.

Gaz, your opinion carries a lot of weight. Not just because you coached Adam. But because the Orioles ML pitching coach obviously agrees with you. His comments in ST are in total agreement with what you are saying. I'm paraphrasing but he said Loewen should throw more over the top and downward and more like a power pitcher. What he saw was a guy with a great arm pitching like a finesse pitcher. A lot like someone who used to pitch for the O's and is now a PC in their system. Maybe it's a coincicence and maybe it's not.

[McLovin]

Yes. Red flags. Talk about flawed mechanics and lost velocity. From fans, this website, radar readings, and Leo Mazzone himself. If Loewen had been a 7th round pick we'd be thrilled with the promise he's shown. You know what? He wasn't a 7th round pick. He was the #4 pick overall with high expectations, a ML contract, and he came with descriptions by scouts of being a polished pitcher with great stuff. His first season in Delmarva was not that of a polished pitcher and now there is some question regarding the great stuff. I didn't notice you trying to tackle any of those points.You're right. I should ignore the steady progression through the minors, the fact that he's healthy, the dominant efforts, and decent numbers. Fact is he's been the most successful first round pitcher we've had since Mussina, and I'm pretty stoked about that. That fact that we're even talking about him this much (after Chris Smith, Beau Hale, Scott Rice, Jash Cenate, Mike Paradis, Wade Townsend, Alvie Shephard, and Jay Powell) is reason enough for my optimism.

[McLovin]

I thought it was odd. Not much of a leg kick, hunched over at the shoulders, and throwing WAY across his body. Adam is 6'6 and was pitching like he was 5'8. He needs to use his size to his advantage.
Again, hopefully he'll get to work some with Leo this year, and this will get taken care of.

[Gaz]

Gaz, your opinion carries a lot of weight. Not just because you coached Adam. But because the Orioles ML pitching coach obviously agrees with you. His comments in ST are in total agreement with what you are saying. I'm paraphrasing but he said Loewen should throw more over the top and downward and more like a power pitcher. What he saw was a guy with a great arm pitching like a finesse pitcher. A lot like someone who used to pitch for the O's and is now a PC in their system. Maybe it's a coincicence and maybe it's not.


Wow, maybe I am that good. Just kidding. I just am going by what I have been taught and what I've taught myself by watching other pitchers. To me, it's quite obvious as to why his velocity has dropped and he's had control problems. His curveball, which scouts used to tell us was an above average Major League pitch in high school, has even changed from a hard 12-6 type curve (maybe an 11:25 am to be more exact, lol) to more of a slurve like pitch.

[Sports Guy]

Who cares if Japan shut down the US?

I know i don't.

I care that Loewen went through a lineup full of AS and held his own.

THAT is what matters.

[RZNJ]

You're right. I should ignore the steady progression through the minors, the fact that he's healthy, the dominant efforts, and decent numbers. Fact is he's been the most successful first round pitcher we've had since Mussina, and I'm pretty stoked about that. That fact that we're even talking about him this much (after Chris Smith, Beau Hale, Scott Rice, Jash Cenate, Mike Paradis, Wade Townsend, Alvie Shephard, and Jay Powell) is reason enough for my optimism.


Is this is a joke? We should be happy and just shut up because he's turned out better than that group?

I'm not asking you to ignore anything. You are in fact so happy that he's decent that you are ignoring certain aspects of his game which are cause for concern.

[RZNJ]

Who cares if Japan shut down the US?

I know i don't.

I care that Loewen went through a lineup full of AS and held his own.

THAT is what matters.

Why don't you care? Isn't everything relative? If Radhames Liz strikes out 13 in 5 IP, doesn't it mean more if no other pitcher has done it. If 5 other pitchers have done it the same week, it carries less significance. Same thing for the WBC. It was a good effort. I could have been worse. At the same time, the U.S. team didn't really hit at all, save for one game, during the tournament so I think it does mean something. If you just want to focus on everything positive and ignore everything else that is your perogative.

[Sports Guy]

Why don't you care? Isn't everything relative? If Radhames Liz strikes out 13 in 5 IP, doesn't it mean more if no other pitcher has done it. If 5 other pitchers have done it the same week, it carries less significance. Same thing for the WBC. It was a good effort. I could have been worse. At the same time, the U.S. team didn't really hit at all, save for one game, during the tournament so I think it does mean something. If you just want to focus on everything positive and ignore everything else that is your perogative.


I am not ignoring the negative. But i am not turning positives into negatives like you are.

[RZNJ]

Let me ask some of you guys who don't like to hear anything negative in regards to Loewen. Does it matter at all to any of you that his own HS pitching coach has noticed a significant change in his mechanics and velocity. His opinion is backed up by radar readings we've seen on TV and reports we've gotten from fans at games. His opinion is further backed up by comments made by Leo Mazzone this spring regarding Loewen. Does any of that matter to you at all or do you just wish to ignore it and not care?

[RZNJ]

I am not ignoring the negative. But i am not turning positives into negatives like you are.

I don't feel I'm turning a positive into a negative. I might be focusing on the negative moreso than the positive because I think those things are being ignored especially when Loewen pitches well.

[McLovin]

Let me ask some of you guys who don't like to hear anything negative in regards to Loewen. Does it matter at all to any of you that his own HS pitching coach has noticed a significant change in his mechanics and velocity. His opinion is backed up by radar readings we've seen on TV and reports we've gotten from fans at games. His opinion is further backed up by comments made by Leo Mazzone this spring regarding Loewen. Does any of that matter to you at all or do you just wish to ignore it and not care?
No, it doesn't matter. Results matter, and I'm happy with what I've seen the past 10 months. If there are mechanical issues, someone smarter than us will fix them.

[McLovin]

Is this is a joke? We should be happy and just shut up because he's turned out better than that group?
Nope, it wasn't a joke. I am happy that Loewen in not a bust, unlike every other first round pitcher since Mussina. I am thrilled as a matter of fact.

Edit: putting the bait back.

[Sports Guy]

Let me ask some of you guys who don't like to hear anything negative in regards to Loewen. Does it matter at all to any of you that his own HS pitching coach has noticed a significant change in his mechanics and velocity. His opinion is backed up by radar readings we've seen on TV and reports we've gotten from fans at games. His opinion is further backed up by comments made by Leo Mazzone this spring regarding Loewen. Does any of that matter to you at all or do you just wish to ignore it and not care?


I'm will be concerned if this is the case in June or July or if he never regains that velocity.

Until then, i am not going to jump off of a cliff about it.

[skipshot26]

Wow, maybe I am that good. Just kidding. I just am going by what I have been taught and what I've taught myself by watching other pitchers. To me, it's quite obvious as to why his velocity has dropped and he's had control problems. His curveball, which scouts used to tell us was an above average Major League pitch in high school, has even changed from a hard 12-6 type curve (maybe an 11:25 am to be more exact, lol) to more of a slurve like pitch.

Well I finally got to see him pitch. My observations:

1) His velocity is not all that impressive. Low 90s with decent movement.

2) Curveball doesn't fool anyone. It really doesn't break much and appears to have a low arm angle compared to his fastball.

3) If he has a changeup that he can thow for strikes I didn't see it.

4) He doesn't look comfortable on the mound. He does throw across his body but its not too exaggerated. In otherwords, it could be fixed with more attention paid to the back leg drive and the position of the plant foot.

5) He really doesn't go after guys. He nibbles around the plate. It's as if he doesn't believe he has good enough stuff to get these guys out.

I think he made a huge mistake playing the WBC. Had he come straight to the big league camp and worked with Mazzone like Kris Benson did he would have had a huge leg up on his competition. As it is, he is struggling with his mechanics big time. I really wonder if his shoulder is really okay.

[Frobby]

Unless you were exaggerating, I'd also wonder where you got those figures, since Loewen only had 27 total starts last year:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/adam-loewen.shtml

I was including his Arizona Fall League starts. Overall, last year Loewen had 33 starts, including 7 (not 8) really bad ones that came in 3 brief stretches. The rest of the time his ERA was 1.82 at Frederick and 1.67 in the AFL. If you want all the details, here is a thread where I posted them: http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30505

[NCRaven]

No disrespect intended to Gaz, who I enjoy reading, but there is generally a reason that high school coaches coach high school, and pro coaches coach pros. McGregor also has worked with JJ Johnson and Rick Stahl who are pitching pretty good, so far. I think he has a clue!

[Sports Guy]

No disrespect intended to Gaz, who I enjoy reading, but there is generally a reason that high school coaches coach high school, and pro coaches coach pros. McGregor also has worked with JJ Johnson and Rick Stahl who are pitching pretty good, so far. I think he has a clue!


But the HS coach may very well have more of an idea what is best for the player, a guy he knows and has worked with for 4 years.

[sonderweg]

I was including his Arizona Fall League starts. Overall, last year Loewen had 33 starts, including 7 (not 8) really bad ones that came in 3 brief stretches. The rest of the time his ERA was 1.82 at Frederick and 1.67 in the AFL. If you want all the details, here is a thread where I posted them: http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30505

Oh, okay - that makes sense.

I watched Loewen last year at Frederick and I had the same general observations as Skipshot did earlier. Even in his good starts, he nibbled. He would have excellent start, statistically speaking, but only go five innings because he nibbled at the plate and racked up 100 pitches rather quickly. If he were aggressive on a regular basis - and "regular" is the key word here - none of us would be having this conversation on this thread.

[B-more]

No disrespect intended to Gaz, who I enjoy reading, but there is generally a reason that high school coaches coach high school, and pro coaches coach pros. McGregor also has worked with JJ Johnson and Rick Stahl who are pitching pretty good, so far. I think he has a clue!

True but when Gaz's opinion seems to mimick what our MAJOR LEAGUE pitching coach and manager are saying, then I'll probably give more deference to him.

I wonder if any of our insiders could ask their contacts or someone could ask Roch if people in the FO have any opinions on Loewen and his mechanics while working with McGregor compared to with Mazzone has said about Loewen from spring training.

[Frobby]

Oh, okay - that makes sense.

I watched Loewen last year at Frederick and I had the same general observations as Skipshot did earlier. Even in his good starts, he nibbled. He would have excellent start, statistically speaking, but only go five innings because he nibbled at the plate and racked up 100 pitches rather quickly. If he were aggressive on a regular basis - and "regular" is the key word here - none of us would be having this conversation on this thread.

That seems like a very fair comment. It's not unusual for young pitchers to have high pitch counts, though -- just look at Bedard and Cabrera. Clearly 2006 is a critical year for Loewen and hopefully he'll be a better more polished pitcher at the end of the year than at the beginning. He made a lot of progress during 2005 compared to 2004, and hopefully he can progress as much this year. We'll see.

[Gaz]

No disrespect intended to Gaz, who I enjoy reading, but there is generally a reason that high school coaches coach high school, and pro coaches coach pros. McGregor also has worked with JJ Johnson and Rick Stahl who are pitching pretty good, so far. I think he has a clue!


None taken. I have said all along that they are the ones who know more then what I do, and that I was just confused as to why they let him (Adam), throw across his body. I'm sure McGregor is a great coach, as for myself, I have only been out of playing for 9 years, am 30 years old, and trying to learn as much as I can to better the players I do coach. I never got above my junior year in college when I blew my own arm, and my coaching then was limited. I have learned what I know through watching tv, reading books, talking to scouts and by trial and error. I enjoy teaching kids and I also enjoy learning from them. That is why I ask the questions I do...to learn and better myself and the kids.

[AgentOrange]

None taken. I have said all along that they are the ones who know more then what I do, and that I was just confused as to why they let him (Adam), throw across his body. I'm sure McGregor is a great coach, as for myself, I have only been out of playing for 9 years, am 30 years old, and trying to learn as much as I can to better the players I do coach. I never got above my junior year in college when I blew my own arm, and my coaching then was limited. I have learned what I know through watching tv, reading books, talking to scouts and by trial and error. I enjoy teaching kids and I also enjoy learning from them. That is why I ask the questions I do...to learn and better myself and the kids.


You are the man Gaz. I played college ball as well and I always thought I would give so much back to the kids. Its not that I know everything, I would teach them the best ways that I knew how to do it, and if someone else knew better than myself, I would gladly use thier advice. It sounds like you are a great coach and hopefully, one day, I will get an opportunity to do the same.

I would suppose it does help that I played almost every position, I would be able to relate a little better to each of the players when they needed me. Thanks for the insight as always, Gaz, its rare to get an opportunity to talk to a HS coach of one of our best prospects.

[McLovin]

Seriously, when Loewen wins his 200th game, we'll get to say we 'talked' to his high school coach! Pretty cool if you ask me...

[mikezpen]

I venture to say that Adam Loewen has had a zillion coaches since he signed, and gotten lots of conflicting advice. Maybe that's why his motion has changed. That doesn't help.

But I don't see enough improvement to feel confident about his being able to do the job when he comes up here next spring.He just doesn't have the control or consistency.

Yes, Loewen's talented and maybe he'll be fine. I'm sure they will go ahead, gamble that Loewen will be ok, and not trade him.All I see is Matt Riley II next spring-a wild left-hander who isn't good enough to hold down a Major League spot and not good enough to get anything back in trade (Ramon Niver anyone?).The mistake was the guaranteed Major League contract, which I'm sure was another idiotic Angelos stunt to keep from spending money.And I think it's going to cost the Orioles the opportunity to reap anything from this guy.He just won't be ready next year.

If they could package him w/some others in a trade for someone we really need, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

[RZNJ]

I venture to say that Adam Loewen has had a zillion coaches since he signed, and gotten lots of conflicting advice. Maybe that's why his motion has changed. That doesn't help.

But I don't see enough improvement to feel confident about his being able to do the job when he comes up here next spring.He just doesn't have the control or consistency.

Yes, Loewen's talented and maybe he'll be fine. I'm sure they will go ahead, gamble that Loewen will be ok, and not trade him.All I see is Matt Riley II next spring-a wild left-hander who isn't good enough to hold down a Major League spot and not good enough to get anything back in trade (Ramon Niver anyone?).The mistake was the guaranteed Major League contract, which I'm sure was another idiotic Angelos stunt to keep from spending money.And I think it's going to cost the Orioles the opportunity to reap anything from this guy.He just won't be ready next year.

If they could package him w/some others in a trade for someone we really need, I'd do it in a heartbeat.


We have Jim Brower & John Halama in our bullpen right now. We started the year with Eric Dubose there. While I may have my questions about Loewen, I think he's talented enough to hold down the 6th or 7th spot in the bullpen next year. I don't know what his numbers are against LH hitters but I would think his delivery and stuff would make him effective that way. You might be right about Loewen but I don't know how you can sound so sure about it.

[mikezpen]

RZNJ, saying Loewen is better than Brower and Halama is no compliment to Loewen. Neither of them is worth a plugged nickel. You don't want either of them put in a close game, and I don't think you'd want Loewen there, either. I mean-would you?

I've seen nothing in Loewen's career that leads me to believe he's going to be successful.He's just another arm that can't hit the side of a barn half the time.

NO, I'm not sure he'll fail. But apparently there are quite a few here who are dead sure he'll magically walk out there next spring and be a polished hurler. And they are already making plans to attend his HOF induction.Sorry, I don't see it.

Not knowing for sure but seeing a lot of bad signs with this guy, I'd trade him.

But I tell you what I would do with Loewen if they don't trade him-and this is an out of the box suggestion.I'd promote him to Baltimore for awhile and get him some quality time w/Mazzone.Also, get him in a few games in non-pressure situations. Once he's got his mechanics down, Mazzone could get w/McGregor and tell him to keep reinforcing the things that Mazzone has done with him. McGregor should keep him doing the same windup, arm angle, etc. Keep the kid on one path and maybe something will click.

[RZNJ]

RZNJ, saying Loewen is better than Brower and Halama is no compliment to Loewen. Neither of them is worth a plugged nickel. You don't want either of them put in a close game, and I don't think you'd want Loewen there, either. I mean-would you?

I've seen nothing in Loewen's career that leads me to believe he's going to be successful.He's just another arm that can't hit the side of a barn half the time.

NO, I'm not sure he'll fail. But apparently there are quite a few here who are dead sure he'll magically walk out there next spring and be a polished hurler. And they are already making plans to attend his HOF induction.Sorry, I don't see it.

Not knowing for sure but seeing a lot of bad signs with this guy, I'd trade him.


Comparing him to Brower & Halama wasn't meant as a compliment. LOL Just pointing out that he doesn't necesarily have to be an integral part of the bullpen to be on the team. I lean more towards your skeptical opinion of him, but he does just enough (as Frobby is very good at pointing out) to keep me from throwing in the towel. Of course, in the right trade ......

[Frobby]

I don't see enough improvement to feel confident about his being able to do the job when he comes up here next spring.He just doesn't have the control or consistency.

Yes, Loewen's talented and maybe he'll be fine. I'm sure they will go ahead, gamble that Loewen will be ok, and not trade him.All I see is Matt Riley II next spring-a wild left-hander who isn't good enough to hold down a Major League spot and not good enough to get anything back in trade (Ramon Niver anyone?).

Wow, that's a scary thought, and I have to admit the analogy between Loewen and Riley is a pretty good one, though Loewen hasn't shown himself to be quite the head case Riley was.

Even so, I'm not ready to toss Loewen aside.

[RZNJ]

But I tell you what I would do with Loewen if they don't trade him-and this is an out of the box suggestion.I'd promote him to Baltimore for awhile and get him some quality time w/Mazzone.Also, get him in a few games in non-pressure situations. Once he's got his mechanics down, Mazzone could get w/McGregor and tell him to keep reinforcing the things that Mazzone has done with him. McGregor should keep him doing the same windup, arm angle, etc. Keep the kid on one path and maybe something will click.

It will be interesting to see what eventually happens here. I have speculated that there may be some inner organizational politics going on concerning Loewen. It may be that he's become a pet project of McGregor and they don't want Leo messing with him just yet. It was kind of strange that after the comments Leo made about Loewen in the spring that they sent him out so fast when the WBC was over.

[mikezpen]

I just see a guy that's been in the system-what-three years (?) and still has serious issues with mechanics. Maybe we need an entirely new approach and Mzzzone could be the man to provide it.

But you make a real good point, RZNJ. Flanagan and McGregor have been together since the Year I, and there could indeed be politics involved.

Frobby, I shouldn't have brought up the possibility of The Return of Ramon Nivar in a trade for Loewen. That's too scary to contemplate, and that was terribly irresponsible of me to even broach.I hope I didn't ruin your lunch. Please forgive me.

[FrontRow107]

Interesting debate.

My take is that Loewen is progressing just fine for a high school pitcher (even one taken high in the draft). The pressing issue is his contract and the major league clause. If that didn't exist, everyone would be happy with his progress. He has been making his way up the ladder but the expectations of that contract are unfair.

[RZNJ]

Interesting debate.

My take is that Loewen is progressing just fine for a high school pitcher (even one taken high in the draft). The pressing issue is his contract and the major league clause. If that didn't exist, everyone would be happy with his progress. He has been making his way up the ladder but the expectations of that contract are unfair.

I disagree a bit. The best case scenario for a top HS pitching prospect is something like Hayden Penn or Scott Kazmir, who were both in AA at the age of 20. Although Loewen was drafted out of HS, he actually didn't sign until after one year of JC. Still, I think the progress that was hoped for would have at least gotten him to Bowie by age 21. It's not even the level so much. It's more of the incosistency and troubling signs, such as the control problems he's had up until now. Even if there were no contract issue, I think we'd be having very similar discussions regarding him.

[justD]

You might be able to see him without being there, to help with the debate...for those who are semi-local, at any rate. Comcast will be broadcasting the game Saturday night on CN8.

Baysox news (http://www.baysox.com/news/?id=10005)

I know Williams did a rehab start last night, but Anderson did pitch, so I think the regular rotation is intact - JJ tonight, Adam tomorrow night.

~d.

edit: Oh...right...it's going to be rained out tomorrow...:(

edit#2: If it's *not* rained out, it will be a double-header of tonight's suspended game plus tomorrow's scheduled game, 7 innings each. !

[Sports Guy]

Mikezpen..So, Loewen's K rate, HR rate and gb/fb ratio from last year do not excite you?

[mikezpen]

Loewen's stats are impressive, but let's remember who they were compiled aganst.

Last year, he walked 5.45 per game in Class A ball; career-wise in the minors, it's 5.64. Last year's AFL, it was 5 per game.He can get away with this against low-minors talent,and roll up some impressive stats. But if he's that wild down there, what's he going to be like against Major League hitters who are far more selective? He'll get shelled.

I've heard people counter by saying that Daniel Cabrera was also wild and he made it. He was never as wild as Loewen is; his minor league walk average was 4.81, and only 3.95 in the few games he had at Bowie before being called up. Plus, he is far more overpowering than Loewen is. He can get away with more fat pitches throwing 97 than Loewen can, throwing 90 or 91. And BTW, after watching Daniel's adventures this season, can we be really sure that he HAS made it?

Look, I hope you're right and Loewen comes up next year and shines. I think you'll get the chance to see him, because the Orioles simply sit around and do nothing most of the time. Trading him would require a level of forward thinking/pro-activeness and guts that is non-existant in Orioleland.

[Ruzious]

Loewen's stats are impressive, but let's remember who they were compiled aganst.

Last year, he walked 5.45 per game in Class A ball; career-wise in the minors, it's 5.64. Last year's AFL, it was 5 per game.He can get away with this against low-minors talent,and roll up some impressive stats. But if he's that wild down there, what's he going to be like against Major League hitters who are far more selective? He'll get shelled.

I've heard people counter by saying that Daniel Cabrera was also wild and he made it. He was never as wild as Loewen is; his minor league walk average was 4.81, and only 3.95 in the few games he had at Bowie before being called up. Plus, he is far more overpowering than Loewen is. He can get away with more fat pitches throwing 97 than Loewen can, throwing 90 or 91. And BTW, after watching Daniel's adventures this season, can we be really sure that he HAS made it?

Look, I hope you're right and Loewen comes up next year and shines. I think you'll get the chance to see him, because the Orioles simply sit around and do nothing most of the time. Trading him would require a level of forward thinking/pro-activeness and guts that is non-existant in Orioleland.
Excellent post - except for that last sentence. The walks are a legit concern that some people here choose to ignore. However, he still has outstanding potential, and you do not look to trade away players with that kind potential.

[Frobby]

I've heard people counter by saying that Daniel Cabrera was also wild and he made it. He was never as wild as Loewen is; his minor league walk average was 4.81, and only 3.95 in the few games he had at Bowie before being called up. Plus, he is far more overpowering than Loewen is. He can get away with more fat pitches throwing 97 than Loewen can, throwing 90 or 91. And BTW, after watching Daniel's adventures this season, can we be really sure that he HAS made it?

Let me say first that it is an open question whether Loewen can improve his command, and it is absolutely necessary that he do so if he is to be successful in the majors. And personally, I'm still waiting for Daniel Cabrera to do so. The road is littered with pitchers with "great stuff" who never became successful because they couldn't thow strikes or put the ball in the right spots.

I think your statistical comparison of Loewen and Cabrera is a bit misleading, though. Loewen just turned 22 two weeks ago, and he is at Bowie. Cabrera was at Delmarva when he turned 22, and he was getting pounded. He picked up the pace in the 2nd half, but still ended the year at 5-9, 4.24 ERA, and a walk rate of 5.60/9 IP. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/daniel-cabrera.shtml By comparison, last year at age 21 Loewen was already at Frederick and was 10-8, 4.13 with a walk rate of 5.45. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/daniel-cabrera.shtml Somewhat comparable numbers, but Loewen was a year younger and playing at one level higher.

I know Cabrera throws harder, but for whatever reason, Loewen is very hard to hit when he's not walking batters. For his career, he is averaging 7.90 H/9, compared to 8.03 H/9 for Cabrera in the minors. Last year, Loewen's GB/FB rate and K rate at Frederick were almost exactly waht DCab's were in Baltimore. Both are very tall, both have control issues, both are wildly inconsistent from one start to the next, so the comparisons are natural.

[JimPalmerJr]

I disagree a bit. The best case scenario for a top HS pitching prospect is something like Hayden Penn or Scott Kazmir, who were both in AA at the age of 20. Although Loewen was drafted out of HS, he actually didn't sign until after one year of JC. Still, I think the progress that was hoped for would have at least gotten him to Bowie by age 21. It's not even the level so much. It's more of the incosistency and troubling signs, such as the control problems he's had up until now. Even if there were no contract issue, I think we'd be having very similar discussions regarding him.

Johnson & Penn don't generate anywhere near the discussion on this board that Loewen does. It is ALL about that contract that forces him to be in the majors next year. Hopefully Angelos has learned his lesson that deferring money just for the sake of deferring it is a mistake. The only one bigger is telling a high schooler he will be in the majors in 3 years. I'd rather have the bet that a high school pitcher getting that kind of deal will only be a fringe major leaguer at best by age 27. If you're truly good enough, you will get promoted - see Penn/Markakis.

Something happened to Loewen since that first appearance in an exhibition game where he basically walked everybody. Since then the velocity is down and he lacks consistent control. "Gaz" doesn't recognize his throwing motion.

Where would Loewen be drafted if he were coming out of college today ?

Who would you be most willing to give up in a trade ?
- Penn, Liz, Erbe, or Loewen

Personally, I don't think Loewen brings much more than a borderline prospect (say Fio) in a trade. He basically projects to being a Rule V / 12th man for the bullpen next year. Hopefully he will improve from there.

[Sports Guy]

Johnson & Penn don't generate anywhere near the discussion on this board that Loewen does. It is ALL about that contract that forces him to be in the majors next year. Hopefully Angelos has learned his lesson that deferring money just for the sake of deferring it is a mistake. The only one bigger is telling a high schooler he will be in the majors in 3 years. I'd rather have the bet that a high school pitcher getting that kind of deal will only be a fringe major leaguer at best by age 27. If you're truly good enough, you will get promoted - see Penn/Markakis.

Something happened to Loewen since that first appearance in an exhibition game where he basically walked everybody. Since then the velocity is down and he lacks consistent control. "Gaz" doesn't recognize his throwing motion.

Where would Loewen be drafted if he were coming out of college today ?

Who would you be most willing to give up in a trade ?
- Penn, Liz, Erbe, or Loewen

Personally, I don't think Loewen brings much more than a borderline prospect (say Fio) in a trade. He basically projects to being a Rule V / 12th man for the bullpen next year. Hopefully he will improve from there.


LOL...That is a very humorous thing to say.

[JimPalmerJr]

Did I really have to spell out "a player from another organization similar in status to Jeff Fiorentino, but better than Ramon Nivar" ?

Bottom line you need TO DEAL with a GM on the level of Bowden or Thrift to get anything of value for Loewen right now.

[Fairfax Bird]

Bottom line you need a GM on the level of Bowden or Thrift to get anything of value for Loewen right now.

Eh?:002_sconfused: Are you serious?

[Grady]

and what did Bowden and Thrift ever win?

[Mackus]

and what did Bowden and Thrift ever win?
I think you're interpreting what JPJ is saying backwards.

[JimPalmerJr]

I think you're interpreting what JPJ is saying backwards.

Thanks. Edited the original for others.

[Sports Guy]

Did I really have to spell out "a player from another organization similar in status to Jeff Fiorentino, but better than Ramon Nivar" ?

Bottom line you need TO DEAL with a GM on the level of Bowden or Thrift to get anything of value for Loewen right now.


That is just ridiculous but your opinion of Loewen is low because of his contract, so it is not even worth discussing with you.

[JimPalmerJr]

That is just ridiculous but your opinion of Loewen is low because of his contract, so it is not even worth discussing with you.

I wish you would discuss the meat of the topic, such as:

1.) The loss of velocity since his draft.

2.) Would he be a 1st round pick with the lack of velocity and control if he were coming out this year ?

3.) Forget potential, but if your future as a GM was tied to picking 3 pitchers in the O's system that will realize major league success, would Loewen be one of them, and who would be the other 2 ?

4.) Has he earned his promotions, or is he being pushed by the contract ?

5.) What would you trade to acquire him if he was in another organization ?


While it is for different reasons than what short circuited Matt Riley's "career", I'm not the only one who sees the same career arc for Loewen. I hope it doesn't work out that way, but don't all the warning flags concern you ?

[Sports Guy]

I wish you would discuss the meat of the topic, such as:

1.) The loss of velocity since his draft.

2.) Would he be a 1st round pick with the lack of velocity and control if he were coming out this year ?

3.) Forget potential, but if your future as a GM was tied to picking 3 pitchers in the O's system that will realize major league success, would Loewen be one of them, and who would be the other 2 ?

4.) Has he earned his promotions, or is he being pushed by the contract ?

5.) What would you trade to acquire him if he was in another organization ?



While it is for different reasons than what short circuited Matt Riley's "career", I'm not the only one who sees the same career arc for Loewen. I hope it doesn't work out that way, but don't all the warning flags concern you ?

1)The loss is occuring now..LEt's see where he is in JUne.

2) No he wouldn't but so what? He also wouldn't have extremely impressive peripheral stats, a great AFL and a good showing in the WBC.

3) I would take Loewen, Penn and JJ Johnson.

4) Definitely earned them. Has not been rushed one bit.

5) That depends. Was my pitching deep? What areas am i strong in? What areas am i weak in. If he was on another team, i would want him as part of the package for Tejada(for example).

You act as if he is a failure. He is a top 50 prospect in all of baseball. Now, i am worried about his velocity but again, let me see how he is throwing in 4-6 weeks.

[DrungoHazewood]

Did I really have to spell out "a player from another organization similar in status to Jeff Fiorentino, but better than Ramon Nivar" ?

Bottom line you need TO DEAL with a GM on the level of Bowden or Thrift to get anything of value for Loewen right now.

It's statements like this that lead me to discount your opinions. Loewen had all kinds of praise from various sources from his performances in the fall, he got all kinds of attention and praise for his WBC performances, and he's done nothing to put a damper on that this season. He's one of the 100 best prospects in the minors, and only a Bowden or a Thrift couldn't get something of value for him.

[Sports Guy]

Bump....This is from last year....RZ referenced it in another post.

It is always interesting to go back and read this stuff a year later.

This should also show people that we need to practice more patience with these young gifted players and not jump to too many conclusions.

[olehippi]

Bump....This is from last year....RZ referenced it in another post.

It is always interesting to go back and read this stuff a year later.

This should also show people that we need to practice more patience with these young gifted players and not jump to too many conclusions.

Do I hear a big "AMEN!"

Although I expect Loewen to struggle at times this year, by the end of the season the naysayers will have crawled back into their caves.

[RZNJ]

Do I hear a big "AMEN!"

Although I expect Loewen to struggle at times this year, by the end of the season the naysayers will have crawled back into their caves.



Is there an option to just admit that they were wrong? What if one doesn't have a cave to crawl back into?

[weams]

Is there an option to just admit that they were wrong? What if one doesn't have a cave to crawl back into?

If you searched Loewen and "lefthanded Palmer" would any of my posts come up?

[hoosiers]

Did you find the one thread where I did not offer unconditional support for Loewen?

[Sports Guy]

Did you find the one thread where I did not offer unconditional support for Loewen?

LOL...It wasn't in purpose..Blame RZ for finding it! :D

[NewMarketSean]

Wow. I looked at my post since it was all the way from April of last year and I was *SHOCK* positive about Loewen!!!