SUN: O's search for relief [Archive] - Orioles Hangout Community

fansince71

08-21-2006, 11:13 PM

TonySoprano

08-21-2006, 11:17 PM

"Kerry Ligtenberg in 2003. Mike DeJean in 2004. Steve Reed and Steve Kline in 2005. Jim Brower in 2006."
All signed by Flanagan.

mweb

08-21-2006, 11:21 PM

In no particular order:

Wuertz
Valverde
Neshek
Rauch

All good choices. All of them would have to be traded for though, correct? Should get at least 2 good relievers this offseason.

orioles119

08-21-2006, 11:36 PM

You almost get the sense that the organziation feels like they are stepping out on a huge limb counting on Hoey next year...Like it's a top secret plan. It's common knowledge around baseball that young bullpen pitchers can move very quickly through the system and make some big impacts at the ML level.
I think it's a change in philosophy in regards to the bullpen by the organization. Signings like Mike DeJean, Steve Kline, Steve Reed, and Jim Brower look like okay moves on paper - they just blow up rather quickly. Relievers like this just seem to be very tricky in predicting how good they look when the move is made. For instance - I was very glad the O's got Hawkins when it happened. Sure, it got rid of Kline, but Hawkins was still considered a decent reliever. After seeing him, it is not necessarily the case.

When I look at the change in philosophy, I see that change with the promotions of Sendy Rleal out of spring training and Kirt Birkins and Chris Britton during the season. The biggest gamble was the promotion of Chris Ray to closer - a gamble that seems to have paid off. I can fully understand the tentative reluctance to promote Hoey, but I'm glad that they've decided to go ahead through with it.

It's the logical transitition from the old way of doing things to the new. Instead of signing veterans who will blow up, the O's have chosen to promote from within - albeit the Ortizes and Chens of the world notwithstanding.

Avsfan

08-21-2006, 11:39 PM

I'd sign LaTroy.....

if it was 1999 again.

Sports Guy

08-21-2006, 11:40 PM

This is an extremely discouraging article IMO.

TonySoprano

08-21-2006, 11:42 PM

This is an extremely discouraging article IMO.
It's as if the plan as to throw a bunch of you know what against the wall to see what sticks.

orioles119

08-21-2006, 11:43 PM

It's as if the plan as to throw a bunch of you know what against the wall to see what sticks.
Isn't that every bullpen at times?

mweb

08-21-2006, 11:43 PM

I think it's a change in philosophy in regards to the bullpen by the organization. Signings like Mike DeJean, Steve Kline, Steve Reed, and Jim Brower look like okay moves on paper - they just blow up rather quickly. Relievers like this just seem to be very tricky in predicting how good they look when the move is made. For instance - I was very glad the O's got Hawkins when it happened. Sure, it got rid of Kline, but Hawkins was still considered a decent reliever. After seeing him, it is not necessarily the case.

When I look at the change in philosophy, I see that change with the promotions of Sendy Rleal out of spring training and Kirt Birkins and Chris Britton during the season. The biggest gamble was the promotion of Chris Ray to closer - a gamble that seems to have paid off. I can fully understand the tentative reluctance to promote Hoey, but I'm glad that they've decided to go ahead through with it.

It's the logical transitition from the old way of doing things to the new. Instead of signing veterans who will blow up, the O's have chosen to promote from within - albeit the Ortizes and Chens of the world notwithstanding.

I'm not sure that moving Ray to closer was much of a gamble, the guy was very good last year and is very talented. Going with so many unproven guys along with some guys who were proven to be mediocre at best was the real gamble imo. And it hasn't paid off.

I'm also not sure how promoting from within is so logical when it hasn't worked well for us and when we don't have that much premium BP talent in the minors. I agree we should give many of these guys a chance and fill part of our pen with them, but aquiring more proven guys and/or talented guys in trades like the guys 1970 mentioned is also needed.

Moose Milligan

08-21-2006, 11:44 PM

This article made me sick. The Orioles still don't get it.

Just when you think they've got it figured out...

Sports Guy

08-21-2006, 11:44 PM

It's as if the plan as to throw a bunch of you know what against the wall to see what sticks.

And that has been the plan for years. They are just clueless it seems.

orioles119

08-21-2006, 11:45 PM

I'm not sure that moving Ray to closer was much of a gamble, the guy was very good last year and is very talented. Going with so many unproven guys along with some guys who were proven to be mediocre at best was the real gamble imo. And it hasn't paid off.

I'm also not sure how promoting from within is so logical when it hasn't worked well for us and when we don't have that much premium BP talent in the minors. I agree we should give many of these guys a chance and fill part of our pen with them, but aquiring more proven guys and/or talented guys in trades like the guys 1970 mentioned is also needed.
I'm not saying to build the bullpen completely from within. The veterans have their place in the pen - just that they are just as much an unknown as the rookies.

TonySoprano

08-21-2006, 11:46 PM

Isn't that every bullpen at times?Every bullpen has flaws, I grant you. However, the quote from Flanagan doesn't instill me with a lot of confidence in their evaluations.

"It's the nature of relievers overall," Flanagan said. "It almost seems like you're better off if they're coming off a bad year than a good one. It's the ebb and flow of being a reliever."

mweb

08-21-2006, 11:48 PM

I'm not saying to build the bullpen completely from within. The veterans have their place in the pen - just that they are just as much an unknown as the rookies.

No they're not, Flanagan just hasn't been good in picking them.

Avsfan

08-21-2006, 11:58 PM

the quote from Flanagan

Maybe that's why Russ Ortiz is still around? Might Brower come back again? :eek:

Moose Milligan

08-21-2006, 11:59 PM

Every bullpen has flaws, I grant you. However, the quote from Flanagan doesn't instill me with a lot of confidence in their evaluations.

I agree.

I've said it on here a bunch of times before and I'll say it again. Don't sign guys who are on the downside of their peak or past it.

I'd also venture out and say don't bring guys in from the NL, since the ones we've brought in have been pretty craptacular.

Flanagan just makes it seem like they're throwing darts or drawing straws in the warehouse to make decisions.

And that's just maddening.

I'm not sure what my reputation is on this board I'm not sure if people view me as a Sapper, NMS or Mikezpen (and I like those guys). I'd like to have a positive outlook on the future, I REALLY would. But it's little stuff like this, like the tidbit on us resigning Hawkins and the Flanagan quote that just leave me scratching my head and a bit irate.

orioles119

08-22-2006, 12:21 AM

Arthur Rhodes will return "home" to instill some of that good ole' veteran presence to the bullpen.

Moose Milligan

08-22-2006, 12:27 AM

Arthur Rhodes will return "home" to instill some of that good ole' veteran presence to the bullpen.

You mean get shellacked?

I say we bring Alan Mills out of retirement, too.

Avsfan

08-22-2006, 12:28 AM

You mean get shellacked?

I say we bring Alan Mills out of retirement, too.

Hey man! Don't rag on the Fu Man Chu! :mad:

TonySoprano

08-22-2006, 12:29 AM

I say we bring Alan Mills out of retirement, too.I'd pay money to see him step in the ring with Darryl Strawberry.;)

Sapper

08-22-2006, 12:35 AM

vice president Jim Duquette concedes that the front office overestimated what it had coming into the season.

That part gives me very little hope that this group of retreads can be trusted to know anything. Most of us here were more realistic apparently than our "baseball people" in the front office.

Moose Milligan

08-22-2006, 12:44 AM

Hey man! Don't rag on the Fu Man Chu! :mad:

Not ragging on the Fu Manchu at all! I loved Mills and Rhodes, those two were badasses. I liked our bullpen back then.

Just figures we'd bring back someone past their prime, is all.

And Soprano...Mills would knock a mother****er out. I have a feeling that Mills was like the Samuel L Jackson of middle relievers. At least thats how he appears in my mind. That old cokehead wouldn't stand a chance against Alan Mills :)

Sapper

08-22-2006, 12:47 AM

The Orioles would like to re-sign pending free agent LaTroy Hawkins, but only at a reduced price.

This epitomizes the reason why we SUCK! These f'ing morons and that cheapskate in the law firm the best they can do is try to resign Hawkins at a "reduced price"? What about the MASN money????!!!!

Don't do us any favors. If this front office were any slower time would possibly stop within the warehouse perfectly preserving their stupidity in crystaline perfection for all ages to witness. (It certainly seems to never end for us.)

bgfield

08-22-2006, 12:50 AM

That part gives me very little hope that this group of retreads can be trusted to know anything. Most of us here were more realistic apparently than our "baseball people" in the front office.
I think a lot of us overestimated what we had. There were those of us coming into this season who saw this team as capable of winning 90 games or losing 90 games. If Cabrera and Bedard had improved as expected, Chen and Lopez hadn't regressed so, and Benson pitched exactly as he has, we probably wouldn't be in contention but we'd be looking like a much improved ballclub.

Unfortunately, Cabrera, Lopez, and Chen regressed in a big way, and Bedard was rather inconsistent until June. Should we fault that "group of retards" for placing hope in two of our younger pitchers? Should we fault them for not predicting that not only would Rodrigo regress, but regress to the point that he'd have one of the highest ERA's in the majors?

A lot went wrong this season. I'm glad that the front office is admitting their mistakes. That's the first step that needs to be taken to ensuring that those mistakes aren't made again.

Sapper

08-22-2006, 12:57 AM

I think a lot of us overestimated what we had. There were those of us coming into this season who saw this team as capable of winning 90 games or losing 90 games. If Cabrera and Bedard had improved as expected, Chen and Lopez hadn't regressed so, and Benson pitched exactly as he has, we probably wouldn't be in contention but we'd be looking like a much improved ballclub.

Unfortunately, Cabrera, Lopez, and Chen regressed in a big way, and Bedard was rather inconsistent until June. Should we fault that "group of retards" for placing hope in two of our younger pitchers? Should we fault them for not predicting that not only would Rodrigo regress, but regress to the point that he'd have one of the highest ERA's in the majors?

A lot went wrong this season. I'm glad that the front office is admitting their mistakes. That's the first step that needs to be taken to ensuring that those mistakes aren't made again.
Check out this thread I started at the beginning of the season asking what our weaknesses were. Almost everyone said power hitting and bullpen. Are we really smart here on the OH or is the front office just that clueless?

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32476

TonySoprano

08-22-2006, 01:02 AM

That part gives me very little hope that this group of retreads can be trusted to know anything. Most of us here were more realistic apparently than our "baseball people" in the front office.
vice president Jim Duquette concedes that the front office overestimated what it had coming into the season.He made a similiar comment last month about the rotation.

The organization is more concerned with upgrading the team's athleticism, talent level and depth. Club officials were optimistic before the season that if the club stayed healthy, it could compete. However, the pitching staff, thought to be the backbone of the team, has faltered under new pitching coach Leo Mazzone, leaving Duquette to admit that the organization may have over-evaluated what it had.

"I don't think we've underachieved," Duquette said. "There's been some disappointments. Our rotation has not been as strong as we thought it was going to be. Maybe there was some over-evaluation and maybe a little bit of under-performance. Injuries certainly played a part, but everybody had injuries and you can't place the blame there." Source - Baltimore Sun, July 12 (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-os13,0,1703858.story?coll=bal-sports-baseball)

By their own admission, they may have overestimated what they had in the rotation and the bullpen. This may give us an indication why they have been reluctant to trade what they have in exchange for a needed bat. It could be that either that their asking price is too high, or that they may be gun shy about rolling the dice, because of their track record in evaluating what they have and don't want to make a mistake.

Moose Milligan

08-22-2006, 01:35 AM

He made a similiar comment last month about the rotation.
Source - Baltimore Sun, July 12 (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-os13,0,1703858.story?coll=bal-sports-baseball)

By their own admission, they may have overestimated what they had in the rotation and the bullpen. This may give us an indication why they have been reluctant to trade what they have in exchange for a needed bat. It could be that either that their asking price is too high, or that they may be gun shy about rolling the dice, because of their track record in evaluating what they have and don't want to make a mistake.

Well if thats the case, get some other people to evaluate.

I don't know how a ML FO office works (or in our case doesn't work) but I'd imagine it goes something like this...anyone with true knowledge of the subject please feel free to correct me....

Flanagan and Duq sit in the warehouse on their thumbs taking and making calls while the scouts are out doing their jobs, bringing back scouting reports and evaluating the talent. Flanagan and Duq only come out of the warehouse (if at all) and evaluate talent when they think they're close to making a deal. In summary, I'm giving Flanagan and Duq the benefit of the doubt here because Flanny won a Cy Young and WS with us and they seem to be nice guys. That, and they have to put up with the miserable old fartknocker Angelos.

So...if they think the scouts are doing a bad job and giving them bogus intel, FIRE THEM! Get new ones! Call Jim Russo out of retirement.

I know baseballs probably the hardest game to scout. But if we're so gun shy because of the talent evaluating then get some different evaluaters in here. BUILD THIS TEAM!

Oh wait...that'd require spending a little more money...sorry...

Sapper

08-22-2006, 01:37 AM

Well if thats the case, get some other people to evaluate.

I don't know how a ML FO office works (or in our case doesn't work) but I'd imagine it goes something like this...anyone with true knowledge of the subject please feel free to correct me....

Flanagan and Duq sit in the warehouse on their thumbs taking and making calls while the scouts are out doing their jobs, bringing back scouting reports and evaluating the talent. Flanagan and Duq only come out of the warehouse (if at all) and evaluate talent when they think they're close to making a deal. In summary, I'm giving Flanagan and Duq the benefit of the doubt here because Flanny won a Cy Young and WS with us and they seem to be nice guys. That, and they have to put up with the miserable old fartknocker Angelos.

So...if they think the scouts are doing a bad job and giving them bogus intel, FIRE THEM! Get new ones! Call Jim Russo out of retirement.

I know baseballs probably the hardest game to scout. But if we're so gun shy because of the talent evaluating then get some different evaluaters in here. BUILD THIS TEAM!

Oh wait...that'd require spending a little more money...sorry...
Nah, just put "Baltimore" on the road jerseys and everything will be fine.

/end sarcasm

Moose Milligan

08-22-2006, 01:44 AM

Nah, just put "Baltimore" on the road jerseys and everything will be fine.

/end sarcasm

Ohhh man, that was good. I got a good laugh out of that. :D

I bet people weren't *****ing for Baltimore on the road jerseys when we were busy winning the WS in 1983!

33rdst

08-22-2006, 06:41 AM

The front office people weren't the only ones to get it wrong. Many on this board were touting guys like Rleal, Rodriguez and even Dubose. The bullpen is a crap shoot. All of us thought Kline was a good signing when it happened.

Just looking around the league it appears like the teams with the most successfull bullpens are those that have a good mix of veterans with one or two young guys. I still say your bullpen is only as good as your starting pitching. Look at Boston.

JTrea81

08-22-2006, 07:00 AM

I don't see what everybody is upset about. This is a filler article and nothing more. The bullpen has been horrible lately and could use an upgrade. They only want Hawkins back at a reduced price. Hoey is still in the picture. Perlozzo gave some great comments about Britton. Nowhere in that article does it say the bullpen is the first priority, just that it needs to be fixed - which I can agree with. Heck all 30 teams are looking to do the same thing.

Mackus

08-22-2006, 07:13 AM

wildcard

08-22-2006, 07:16 AM

The O's have a bunch of righthander that may progress or have good years.

Ray, Britton, Hoey, Rleal, Hale, Manon, Abreu, and maybe they re-sign Hawkins.

But they have very little on the lefthanded side - Birkins, Burres, and Byrdak. They need to add a strong lefty.

DrungoHazewood

08-22-2006, 08:10 AM

I was at least a little encouraged by the article. They said they recognize a weakness, they don't want to just go out and throw money at the problem, and they'll look at several different avenues to fix it.

The discouraging thing was the dispair evident in this sentence fragment: "Eddy Rodriguez proved once again he's ineffective above Triple-A, and Perlozzo was left to sift through unproven commodities such as Rleal, Britton, Birkins, Winston Abreu and Julio Manon" Eddy Rodriguez was given 15 innings to prove himself - they might as well have not called him up at all. These "unproven commodities"like Britton, Birkins, Abreu, and Manon all showed signs of being capable relievers, certainly more signs than most of the $2M, $3M, $4M veterans that get hauled in every year.

I have no problem trading for or signing a middle reliever on the cheap, but most relievers come out of nowhere. There was an article on BP the other day that showed closers with no experience closing were every bit as successful as "proven" closers.

Part of the reason they've used 17 relievers this year is that Manon, Abreu, and Rodriguez were sent away before they had a chance to show anything, and carcasses like Byrdak and Ortiz were brought in because of their so-called track records.

The Orioles need to look at the Manons and Abreus and Eddy Rodriguezes as possible solutions to the problem, not as suspects. Pick up some more guys like that in the offseason, maybe a guy like Valverde or Rauch. They have a great pitching coach, and a whole lot of scouts and others coaches with decades of experience - tell them to evaluate what they have without regard to name or track record or age, pick the best ones, realize even good relievers will have rough spots, and trust them for longer than a week at a time.

rolliefingers

08-22-2006, 08:17 AM

The discouraging thing was the dispair evident in this sentence fragment: "Eddy Rodriguez proved once again he's ineffective above Triple-A, and Perlozzo was left to sift through unproven commodities such as Rleal, Britton, Birkins, Winston Abreu and Julio Manon" Eddy Rodriguez was given 15 innings to prove himself - they might as well have not called him up at all. These "unproven commodities"like Britton, Birkins, Abreu, and Manon all showed signs of being capable relievers, certainly more signs than most of the $2M, $3M, $4M veterans that get hauled in every year.Beat me to it. Nevermind that all those guys have been better than our "wily vets" this year.

bigbird

08-22-2006, 08:32 AM

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 08:43 AM

I think the front office put too much stock into Mazzone's track record of turning journeymen into something special (Hammond and Sosa for exmaple).
That being said there is still no way you can throw 6 career minor leaguers out there every night and hope to shut down the likes of teams in the AL. They flounder and you're forced to start a merry go round in hopes of finding a hot hand. We need 2 shut down bullpen arms for the back of the pen. Add Ray, a long reliever/spot starter, Britton and then the best 2 arms from the group we've been seeing this season and that should be a solid pen for 2007.

But they are going after the wrong types of guys. They want to bring back Hawkins? Are you serious?

They need POWER ARMS!!! When are they going to figure this out?

It sounds to me that they will sign more of the same guys that they have signed the last few years.

They want guys who have "done it before"....Nevermind that doing it before was 5-10 years ago. At least they did it! Give me a break.

And btw, this has NOTHING to do with PA. This is the FO. Piss poor!!!!!

AgentOrange

08-22-2006, 08:46 AM

But they are going after the wrong types of guys. They want to bring back Hawkins? Are you serious?

They need POWER ARMS!!! When are they going to figure this out?

It sounds to me that they will sign more of the same guys that they have signed the last few years.

They want guys who have "done it before"....Nevermind that doing it before was 5-10 years ago. At least they did it! Give me a break.

And btw, this has NOTHING to do with PA. This is the FO. Piss poor!!!!!

Hawkins is not a power arm? Doesn't he throw mid 90's? ::: runs and hides :::

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 08:47 AM

Hawkins is not a power arm? Doesn't he throw mid 90's? ::: runs and hides :::

He strikes out less than 4 per 9 IP...That is awful. That is what i meant by power arm..Guys you strike people out.

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 08:48 AM

Heavens forbid the Orioles do the "difficult thing" and make a trade. It is much easier to just sign crap off of the scrapheap...Same easy way out as always.

RZNJ

08-22-2006, 08:48 AM

Hawkins is not a power arm? Doesn't he throw mid 90's? ::: runs and hides :::

Bottom line. Look at his strikeout numbers.

BTW, Hawkins may have given us some insight that Sammy mishandled Birkins, possible being the cause of his sore arm.

"
I don't think Birkins had ever pitched out of the bullpen, and he was going three, four, five days in a row warming up. He did some things that guys who are new to the bullpen aren't acclimated to doing.

AgentOrange

08-22-2006, 08:59 AM

Bottom line. Look at his strikeout numbers.

BTW, Hawkins may have given us some insight that Sammy mishandled Birkins, possible being the cause of his sore arm.

"

I gotcha, I was confused. I think we do need some power arms in the BP, they can get you out of jams like no other. I think we have 2 if Hoey pans out. We would need a match up lefty and 2 more, and I think we would have a pretty solid pen.

NewMarketSean

08-22-2006, 09:05 AM

You'd think that after XX amount of years of having veteran relievers sucking, the O's would simply save their money and go with the guys from the minors, since there seems to be a lot of them down there who would be able to do as good/bad as the veteran relievers do.

But that is not the Oriole Way. The Oriole Way is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.

This organization may get better by default, but we're never going to make the playoffs under the current ownership and management

clapdiddy

08-22-2006, 09:14 AM

But that is not the Oriole Way. The Oriole Way is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.

You do realize that this is the definition of insanity?:eek:

AgentOrange

08-22-2006, 09:16 AM

You do realize that this is the definition of insanity?:eek:

Or we could go... Stupid:

1. Slow to learn or understand; obtuse.
2. Tending to make poor decisions or careless mistakes.
3. Marked by a lack of intelligence or care; foolish or careless:

Witchy Chick

08-22-2006, 09:32 AM

Hawkins is not a power arm? Doesn't he throw mid 90's? ::: runs and hides :::

Well, he seemed to be more of a power arm when he returned from his 4-day bereavement leave. Otherwise, I don't know that I've seen him topping (with regularity) 91-92 MPH this season.

So, let's re-sign LaTroy and only use him every 4 or 5 days next season. :cool: :rolleyes:

Witchy

RZNJ

08-22-2006, 09:34 AM

Well, he seemed to be more of a power arm when he returned from his 4-day bereavement leave. Otherwise, I don't know that I've seen him topping (with regularity) 91-92 MPH this season.

So, let's re-sign LaTroy and only use him every 4 or 5 days next season. :cool: :rolleyes:

Witchy

You may have something there. lol Hawkins is an odd bird. He was hitting 95-96 on OD and looked to have dominanat stuff. I've rarely seen anything close to that since. Once in awhile he's around 93-94 but like you said, mostly low 90's. What's up with this guy?

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 09:44 AM

If they want to take the easy way out and sign someone instead of making trades, then go get Scott Williamson.

TinCup

08-22-2006, 09:45 AM

You may have something there. lol Hawkins is an odd bird. He was hitting 95-96 on OD and looked to have dominanat stuff. I've rarely seen anything close to that since. Once in awhile he's around 93-94 but like you said, mostly low 90's. What's up with this guy?

How old is he and his arm???

TonySoprano

08-22-2006, 09:51 AM

clapdiddy

08-22-2006, 09:56 AM

I wouldn't worry much about Hawkins as I doubt he'll be back next year. They want him to come back to a 4th place team, and at a pay cut. What an enticing offer.:cool: Even Conine gets a pay increase in 2007.
Which is exactly why we should trade him now. Get a young, underachieving, hard-throwing arm for him now. Some guy in high A or AA ball who's got tools, but maybe lacks command.

What do we have to lose?

bigbird

08-22-2006, 10:02 AM

Why Not?

08-22-2006, 10:05 AM

How old is he and his arm???

I haven't looked it up, but I think Hawkins and his arm are the same age. ;)

PA Bird Fan

08-22-2006, 10:07 AM

BTW, Hawkins may have given us some insight that Sammy mishandled Birkins, possible being the cause of his sore arm.

"

I'm usually working when games are on so I don't see many. If this is true of Birkins, how many other guys has Sammy done this to?

We need more talent in the pen obviously but, if

1) Your starters rarely get you deep into the game

and

2) The manager has guys warming up all of the time, even if they don't come into the game

then

no matter what you have in the pen, those guys are going to wear down and be less effective.

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 10:16 AM

We actually need guys who can get people out.
Yes we do but the types of pitchers we need to do that are strikeout guys.

1970 has illustrated time and time again the importance of strikeouts in the bullpen and really, common sense tells you you want the guy who can come with 2nd and 3rd and 0 outs and be able to get the guy without the hitter putting the ball in play.

As 1970 showed, the best BP in baseball this year, the Twins, lead in k's, HR allowed and command rate. The Orioles need to go after guys like this.

Not the guys who are striking out 3-5 guys per 9 IP.

bigbird

08-22-2006, 10:18 AM

Which is exactly why we should trade him now. Get a young, underachieving, hard-throwing arm for him now. Some guy in high A or AA ball who's got tools, but maybe lacks command.

What do we have to lose?

Some team actually has to offer a young, underachieving, hard throwing, high A or AA guy who has tools but lacks command in order to trade for him. What talent has relief pitchers brought in return the past 4 weeks that you want?

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 10:21 AM

Some team actually has to offer a young, underachieving, hard throwing, high A or AA guy who has tools but lacks command in order to trade for him. What talent has relief pitchers brought in return the past 4 weeks that you want?

Austin Kearns.

Felipe Lopez.

Ryan Shealy.

I am sure of all the relief pitchers traded(mostly acquired by the Reds) that there were a few arms in there worth acquiring.

We know teams are after Hawkins. I find it hard to believe we can't acquire an arm like clapdiddy suggested. The A's just lost Street. Maybe they could use another BP arm?

But the Orioles seem to want to keep Hawkins and resign him. Funny thing is, the Orioles are not figuring out that trading Hawkins doesn't mean you can't resign him.

erb8472

08-22-2006, 10:27 AM

Is this just a ploy to up Hawkins value?

I doubt it, and hate that every time our FO says something questionable like this somehow it's asked if it's to up someone’s value.

bigbird

08-22-2006, 10:28 AM

Austin Kearns.

Felipe Lopez.

Ryan Shealy.

I am sure of all the relief pitchers traded(mostly acquired by the Reds) that there were a few arms in there worth acquiring.

We know teams are after Hawkins. I find it hard to believe we can't acquire an arm like clapdiddy suggested. The A's just lost Street. Maybe they could use another BP arm?

But the Orioles seem to want to keep Hawkins and resign him. Funny thing is, the Orioles are not figuring out that trading Hawkins doesn't mean you can't resign him.

all those trade were multi player deals. You need to look at the whole trade not just one piece. I'm sure we could have had Shealy for Penn and Hawkins.
In the 7th or 8th innings we need guys that have a WHIP around or less. Again we need pitching who can get players out, guys who can pitch and not just fire BBs on a straight line.

Mackus

08-22-2006, 10:29 AM

Funny thing is, the Orioles are not figuring out that trading Hawkins doesn't mean you can't resign him.
It actually makes it easier. To resign him now, they'd have to do it before the deadline to offer arbitration or they won't be able to until May 1 (and they certainly aren't offering arbitration). If they move him, and his new team doesn't offer arb (likely), they'll have the entire offseason to sign him, although so will every other team out there, whereas the O's would have exclusive rights to him until they decline arbitration.

bigbird

08-22-2006, 10:31 AM

I question that if Hawkins isn;t good enough for a floundering 4th place team why a contender would give squat for him? Maybe there's a reason they haven't.

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 10:35 AM

I question that if Hawkins isn;t good enough for a floundering 4th place team why a contender would give squat for him? Maybe there's a reason they haven't.BB, open your eyes...There are alot of mediocre relievers being traded and we know that Hawkins is in demand right now.

So, why nto pull the trigger? You know why...Because they want to win as many games as they can and they feel Hawkins helps them do that more than any other reliever we can replace him with and they are wrong.

You seem to be defending these guys alot...Why?

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 10:37 AM

all those trade were multi player deals. You need to look at the whole trade not just one piece. I'm sure we could have had Shealy for Penn and Hawkins.
In the 7th or 8th innings we need guys that have a WHIP around or less. Again we need pitching who can get players out, guys who can pitch and not just fire BBs on a straight line.

Are you telling me this is the equivalent to DBat and Affeldt? No chance. We could have probably had him for Birkins(he wasn't hurt yet) and Hawkins or Rlo.

Mackus

08-22-2006, 10:38 AM

Because they want to win as many games as they can and they feel Hawkins helps them do that more than any other reliever we can replace him with and they are wrong.Well, that is true, Hawkins likely helps us more than any of the other relievers we have (maybe Abreu or Hoey could come up and do as good of a job, but Hawkins is likely better than everyone in our pen right now other than Ray).

They are certainly wrong that winning games now matters at all, particularly the miniscule chance that having Hawkins over a replacement reliever will cost us more than one game over the course of the rest of the season.

bigal21093

08-22-2006, 10:59 AM

I find it interesting that Ligtenberg, DeJean, Reed and Kline ALL pitched for NATIONAL LEAGUE teams in the years immediately before they came to Charm City, if memory serves (Ligtenberg spent 5 years with the Braves, DeJean with the Rockies/Brewers/Cardinals from '97-'03, Reed in the NL since '01, including '03-'04 with the Rockies, Kline in the NL since '97, with the Expos and Cardinals).

Now, in a sport with greater parity between the leagues, this would not be a huge issue. However, recent history has demonstrated the utter dominance of the AL in the World Series (NL teams haven't even won a game the past two Series; AL has won six of the last eight WS, though to be fair, most of these were the MFY's) and AL is 9-0-1 in the last 10 All-Star Games. Plus, interleague play has not been kind to the NL, especially this season. (I don't remember the exact numbers, but there was a glaring disparity between the leagues, and I think even the NL division leaders (NYM, STL, and LA) were only around .500 combined.)

Hawkins has been somewhat of an exception, pitching at least decently, if not great, to the tune of a 2.48 ERA at Camden Yards (with a disgusting, Ortiz-like 7.33 road ERA). Hawkins, of course, spent all but '04 and '05 in the American League, including stellar ERA's in 2002 (2.13) and 2003 (1.86!!) Given these numbers, it made all the sense in the world to obtain him this year. While it may not have worked out ideally, I personally submit that he's been much less awful than the four mentioned above.

Could it be that the front office should devote its search for an actual bullpen to:
(a) relievers currently in the AL (Speier, Riske, Romero, J. Kennedy, Harper, R. Mahay, etc.)
AND
(b) relievers currently in the NL with a history in the AL (Scott Williamson has come up as a name a lot, etc.)?

From my perspective, I'd much rather we get some of these less sexy names, rather than signing guys who had had some great years but were NL only (as we've learned, you're in trouble if a middle reliever is your big offseason signing (cough Steve Kline cough)). The purpose of a bullpen is to bridge games from your starter to your closer, and to keep your team in games when you're either mopping up after poor starts or in extra-innings; the best 'pens are those that DON'T have to make names for themselves.

What do you guys think about this AL-focused plan? Any other names you want to suggest based on these criteria?

JTrea81

08-22-2006, 11:14 AM

One guy I would like to see the O's take a look at is Mike MacDonald who pitches for the Jays AA team. He is a Maine kid so I know a little bit about him and I actually work with his dad. This kid is a starter right now but was drafted to be a middle reliever. He's got a great sinking fastball (91-92 mph) and is a extreme groundball pitcher which would be perfect for OPACY. He doesn't get rattled much either - a true bulldog on the mound. It is his third season after leaving college so the Jays have to protect him or risk losing him in the Rule V. If they don't protect him I'd like to see us grab him and put him in the pen. Of course since he isn't on the 40 man a trade with the Jays would make sense as well offering Williams or Hawkins.

Three Run Homer

08-22-2006, 11:21 AM

I guess I'm in the minority, but I'm not all that bothered by this article. The best thing about it is what it doesn't say: it doesn't say anything about the team counting on Todd Williams, Tim Byrdak, Russ Ortiz or Bruce Chen for next season. I'm reading between the lines a little, but the article makes a point of saying that the team is impressed with Britton and Birkins and wants to bring Hawkins back, and then says nothing about Williams and the rest. I'm hoping that means that the team has written them off...of course, I'd feel a little better about saying that if the team actually would RELEASE them, or at least bury them at the end of the bullpen bench come September 1.

I wouldn't pooh-pooh the idea of signing 1-2 good veterans for the bullpen next year. For sure, give Britton, Birkins, Burres, Hoey, Hale and Abreu an opportunity this September and next spring, but why not also go out and sign a proven setup man with an AL track record and good stuff, like JC Romero or Justin Speier?

DrungoHazewood

08-22-2006, 11:39 AM

I wouldn't pooh-pooh the idea of signing 1-2 good veterans for the bullpen next year. For sure, give Britton, Birkins, Burres, Hoey, Hale and Abreu an opportunity this September and next spring, but why not also go out and sign a proven setup man with an AL track record and good stuff, like JC Romero or Justin Speier?

Because JC Romero and Justin Speier are good bets to be the next Mike DeJean, Steve Kline, or Steve Reed. They were all proven vets, all brought in for "only" $3-4 million, and all wore out their welcome inside of six weeks.

If you're going to sign guys with a 50-50 chance of desperately needing to be released, why pay them millions?

Look at these two bits from a recent BP article by Nate Silver (parts bolded by me for emphasis):

Since 1985, when reliever usage patterns began to coalesce more or less into their present form, there have been 131 pitchers who posted a CEI of 50 or higher. Of those 131 seasons, 32 (24%) came from pitchers who had never recorded as many as 20 saves in any major league season previous. This is a pretty remarkable statistic: nearly one in four great closer seasons are recorded by pitchers that have no track record whatsoever as a major league closer.

Finally, regardless of their background, how do the breakout closers hold up as compared to the experienced closers? Here are the CEI progressions for the 32 breakout closers, and the control group of experienced closers who posted a CEI of at least 50 in year n.

Category n+1 n+2 n+3 Total
--------------------------------------------------------
New Closer 50.2 35.8 24.8 110.8
Experienced Closer 37.3 34.2 27.8 99.3

Not only do the breakout closers keep pace with their experienced counterparts--they actually outperform them (although not by a statistically significant margin). Part of this is because the breakout closers are younger as a group. Nevertheless, this qualifies as a statistical anomaly. Normally, a player who has demonstrated a skill (such as closing ballgames) on multiple occasions is much more likely to repeat that performance than someone who has demonstrated that skill just once. Not so here.

I'd bet this carries over to all relievers, not just closers. Experience means nothing. Breakout relievers are very likely to come from the ranks of the unknown, and the unknowns are just as likely to retain their value.

I've had enough of getting screwed by vastly underperforming relievers and having to pay $4M for that joy.

hoosiers

08-22-2006, 11:53 AM

Good stuff, Drungo. Like bb and 3run, I am not bothered by the article at all. We clearly need bp help - as do plenty of other teams. I really don't care how we get it.

Saying that one needs "power" arms or arms that "get outs" is certainly a true in the bullpen, but it's nothing that 30+ other teams in baseball don't understand. Quality relievers don't grow on trees and the Reds just paid a steep price for two bp arms and even now there is interest in an average reliever like Hawkins.

A bp with Ray, Britton and Hoey has a decent future, but it is still a bit away and still two arms short of anything resembling a quality bp. I think September auditions for Abreau, Hale and Hoey will be very important in determining the shape of our bp next year.

Cokeman

08-22-2006, 12:02 PM

But they are going after the wrong types of guys. They want to bring back Hawkins? Are you serious?

They need POWER ARMS!!! When are they going to figure this out?

It sounds to me that they will sign more of the same guys that they have signed the last few years.

They want guys who have "done it before"....Nevermind that doing it before was 5-10 years ago. At least they did it! Give me a break.

And btw, this has NOTHING to do with PA. This is the FO. Piss poor!!!!!

Yes, we need power arms...but we need power arms with a brain. Otherwise, we will just have Jorge Julio again.

bigbird

08-22-2006, 12:08 PM

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 12:09 PM

Yes, we need power arms...but we need power arms with a brain. Otherwise, we will just have Jorge Julio again.

Sign Scott Williamson. Trade for Wuertz or Valverde.

Sign Rhodes.

Fill in with Hoey, Britton and Ray.

7th guy comes out of Rakers/Birkins/Abreu/non roster invitee/Parrish(if healthy...he would be the preference).

Now that is a power BP.

Mackus

08-22-2006, 12:13 PM

BB, open your eyes...There are alot of mediocre relievers being traded and we know that Hawkins is in demand right now.

So, why nto pull the trigger? You know why...Because they want to win as many games as they can and they feel Hawkins helps them do that more than any other reliever we can replace him with and they are wrong.

You seem to be defending these guys alot...Why?

Because I think they're right. I just don;t think you can be successful by throwing a team full of minor league unprovens out there night after night. a couple , yes but not 5 or 6. You needs some stability in the pen and youth doesn't get yout that. We need two solid veteran arms in the pen. By solid I'm not talking Brower or Dronesburg either.
Brower isn't a great example, but Dejean, Kline, and Reed were all considered solid relievers at the time we brought them in.

I really don't think there is any such thing as a solid reliever. There are elite relievers (not just closers) and suspects. Any veteran we bring in this offseason is likely to be a suspect, as there aren't any guys I would consider elite or very good available on the market - perhaps we could work out a trade for someone.

I'd rather find 3-5 minor league guys and hope one of them succeeds than sign one "solid" guy like Dejean, Kline, or Reed for $1.5M. The minor league guys have just as good of a chance of being a successful reliever as the "solid" guys do.

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 12:14 PM

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 12:16 PM

[QUOTE=bigbird]
Brower isn't a great example, but Dejean, Kline, and Reed were all considered solid relievers at the time we brought them in.

I really don't think there is any such thing as a solid reliever. There are elite relievers (not just closers) and suspects. Any veteran we bring in this offseason is likely to be a suspect, as there aren't any guys I would consider elite or very good available on the market - perhaps we could work out a trade for someone.

I'd rather find 3-5 minor league guys and hope one of them succeeds than sign one "solid" guy like Dejean, Kline, or Reed for $1.5M. The minor league guys have just as good of a chance of being a successful reliever as the "solid" guys do.

They were solid guys Mackus but they were also guys with bad trends like declining K rate, HR rate or command rate.

Cokeman

08-22-2006, 12:16 PM

Sign Scott Williamson. Trade for Wuertz or Valverde.

Sign Rhodes.

Fill in with Hoey, Britton and Ray.

7th guy comes out of Birkins/Abreu/non roster invitee/Parrish(if healthy...he would be the preference).

Now that is a power BP.

I like that, except for Rhodes. Even if healthy, I'm not sure how much rust Parrish is going to have on him...worth a shot, but definitely wouldn't depend too much on him.

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 12:18 PM

I like that, except for Rhodes. Even if healthy, I'm not sure how much rust Parrish is going to have on him...worth a shot, but definitely wouldn't depend too much on him.

What is wrong with Rhodes? High K rate, hasn't given up a homer. His ERA isn't that pretty but if you look at his splits, it seems like he has not pitched well in the new Philly park, which is a great hitters park.

As for Parrish, probably right on him. Heck, will they even offer him arbitration?

bigbird

08-22-2006, 12:28 PM

RZNJ

08-22-2006, 12:34 PM

If Valverde, Rhodes, & Williamson were in our bullpen this year, it wouldn't be much, if any, better.

mweb

08-22-2006, 12:39 PM

[QUOTE=Mackus]

They were solid guys Mackus but they were also guys with bad trends like declining K rate, HR rate or command rate.

And age, Reed was about 40, DeJean about 35.

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 12:39 PM

His WHIP is 1.71 and that pretty much sucks for a reliever.

His walks are not great this year but generally speaking, he has always had very good control. He is pitching in the NL for the first time in his career this year so that could have something to do with it.

I think he will be fine with the walks...Not looking at his hits as there can be alot of luck there. He is averaging 9.5 k's per 9 IP and has given up 1 homer all year. Those are the stats that matter, along with his walks.

He has 2 out of the 3 you want and is usually a very good control pitcher, so i will take my chances with the walks that he can get them to his normal level and even if he can't, he is still the type of pitcher that can get out of jams because he strikes so many guys out and he doesn't give up homers.

oriole_way

08-22-2006, 12:42 PM

"Kerry Ligtenberg in 2003. Mike DeJean in 2004. Steve Reed and Steve Kline in 2005. Jim Brower in 2006."

Good article, it is a crap shoot in alot of ways. Like Flanny says your allmost better off signing a guy coming off a bad year. If Kline wasnt such an Idiot i think he would of bounced back this year for us. But look at the MFY's with there solid BP....Proctor, Myers , Villone, Fanrsworth, i think anyone of those guys were available this off season. Are the Yanks lucky or just better at scouting?

Proctor throws between 95-99 mph. 2006 Salary - 0.352 million

Farnsworth also throws in the upper 90s. 2006 Salary - 5.4 million

Tanyon Sturtze throws in the mid to low 90s. 2006 Salary - 1.5 million (got injured)

Dotel throws hard. 2006 Salary - 2 million. (recently made season debut)

Brian Bruney was recently called up. He throws in the mid 90s. 2006 salary - 0.322 million (Arizona had released him earlier in the year)

Then you have that Mariano Rivera fellow, who also throws around 94 mph. 2006 salary - 10.5 million

Not all of these guys worked out (whether it's due to injury or poor control etc) but the point is that the Yankees have multiple guys who can bring the heat.

Now compare with the Orioles. Chris Ray can bring it. Hawkins can sometimes touch 94-95. That's it. The guys that the Orioles usually bring in (Dejean, Reed, Kline, Brower) are usually soft tossers in comparison.

The fact that we are eagerly anticipating Jim Hoey (count me as one of these people) next year illustrates how few power arms we have in our bullpen. Let's assume that Hoey is on the team next year and is relatively successful (which is obviously best case scenario), then we still only have 2 power arms in the bullpen, unless we sign someone.

Is the discrepancy due to payroll limitations? Maybe (the Yankees could afford to take a flier on someone like Dotel, who they knew wouldn't be able to pitch anytime soon when they signed him), but somehow, either by stocking/developing more minor league talent or paying for it in free agency, we need more power arms.

This is a tired subject but it's still relevant to bring it up. Imagine if BJ Ryan were still on the team. Sure we would have had to overpay to keep him but imagine if we had Hoey (cheap), Ray (cheap), and Ryan (expensive) in the bullpen next year. Sprinkle in a Britton (cheap), a Birkins (cheap) and another lefty, and this could be a top notch bullpen.

Cokeman

08-22-2006, 12:46 PM

RZNJ

08-22-2006, 12:47 PM

DeJean & Brower were both considered hard throwers, although I'm not sure DeJean showed it while he was here. The problems with both was lack of command of all pitches, inlcuding their fastballs.

mweb

08-22-2006, 12:48 PM

What is wrong with Rhodes? High K rate, hasn't given up a homer. His ERA isn't that pretty but if you look at his splits, it seems like he has not pitched well in the new Philly park, which is a great hitters park.

As for Parrish, probably right on him. Heck, will they even offer him arbitration?

I believe he had given up a hr, but obviously only 1 is quite good. However that kind of goes against the splits aspect of your argument, you would think if he was affected by his home park so much that he would have given up more hr's there.

Anyway, Rhodes issue this year seems to be his control, 5.2 walks/9 is quite bad. However, his FIP ERA is a very solid 3.03, so that's a good sign. I wouldn't mind seeing Rhodes in our pen next year.

bigbird

08-22-2006, 12:58 PM

Proctor throws between 95-99 mph. 2006 Salary - 0.352 million

Farnsworth also throws in the upper 90s. 2006 Salary - 5.4 million

Tanyon Sturtze throws in the mid to low 90s. 2006 Salary - 1.5 million (got injured)

Dotel throws hard. 2006 Salary - 2 million. (recently made season debut)

Brian Bruney was recently called up. He throws in the mid 90s. 2006 salary - 0.322 million (Arizona had released him earlier in the year)

Then you have that Mariano Rivera fellow, who also throws around 94 mph. 2006 salary - 10.5 million

Not all of these guys worked out (whether it's due to injury or poor control etc) but the point is that the Yankees have multiple guys who can bring the heat.

Now compare with the Orioles. Chris Ray can bring it. Hawkins can sometimes touch 94-95. That's it. The guys that the Orioles usually bring in (Dejean, Reed, Kline, Brower) are usually soft tossers in comparison.

The fact that we are eagerly anticipating Jim Hoey (count me as one of these people) next year illustrates how few power arms we have in our bullpen. Let's assume that Hoey is on the team next year and is relatively successful (which is obviously best case scenario), then we still only have 2 power arms in the bullpen, unless we sign someone.

Is the discrepancy due to payroll limitations? Maybe (the Yankees could afford to take a flier on someone like Dotel, who they knew wouldn't be able to pitch anytime soon when they signed him), but somehow, either by stocking/developing more minor league talent or paying for it in free agency, we need more power arms.

This is a tired subject but it's still relevant to bring it up. Imagine if BJ Ryan were still on the team. Sure we would have had to overpay to keep him but imagine if we had Hoey (cheap), Ray (cheap), and Ryan (expensive) in the bullpen next year. Sprinkle in a Britton (cheap), a Birkins (cheap) and another lefty, and this could be a top notch bullpen.

Interesting you left off Meyers and Villone, 2 of their better relievers.

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 01:03 PM

Mostly age...he will be 37 in October, so he will be pushing 38 by the end of next season. When does his power start dropping off?

It would just be for one year(with an option). If he had big signs of declining, i would be worried about it but he really doesn't and he is not throwing a ton of innings either.

I usually like younger players but you can have some older vets sprinkled in there. Plus, with all the youth we will hopefully have in the pen next year, a vet for them to lean on is a good thing, as long as the vet is effective and when he is signed is not showing signs of decline, which Rhodes is not.

And remember, Rhodes said he wants to retire here. He wants to come back and be an Oriole.

Three Run Homer

08-22-2006, 01:14 PM

I'm not a big fan of signing Rhodes, but I think it would be a mistake to write off all veteran relievers just because we've signed a bunch of duds. Kerry Ligtenberg, Jim Brower and Mike DeJean were all suspect at the time we signed them--we shouldn't have put any faith in them. Steve Reed had a good track record but he was already 40 and had pitched poorly down the stretch the previous season...again, we should have seen it coming.

Steve Kline is the only guy we've signed in recent years who we really should have expected to be good, but wasn't.

Looking farther back, Lee Smith and Randy Myers were both signed as free agents and did just fine as Orioles. Mike Timlin was a washout as a closer, but if we had been a little more patient with him and put him in a more appropriate role, we could have had an outstanding setup man for the last few seasons. Buddy Groom was signed as a veteran free agent and exceeded all expectations.

Of course we should save plenty of space for our home grown relievers, but I just don't think we have enough young talent in the system yet to stock an entire bullpen next season. We need to spend the money to get the one or two veteran relievers out there this winter who actually deserve it...and no more "proven" journeymen like Williams or Byrdak, or has-beens like Ortiz or Hawkins.

AZRon

08-22-2006, 01:25 PM

Which is exactly why we should trade him now. Get a young, underachieving, hard-throwing arm for him now. Some guy in high A or AA ball who's got tools, but maybe lacks command.

What do we have to lose?

This guy seems to fit your requirements.

Brian Bruney (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Brian-Bruney.shtml)

Arizona released him this year on 5/24.

The Yankees signed him to a minor league contract on 7/10.

Struck out the side in his one inning against the O's.

Cokeman

08-22-2006, 01:26 PM

It would just be for one year(with an option). If he had big signs of declining, i would be worried about it but he really doesn't and he is not throwing a ton of innings either.

I usually like younger players but you can have some older vets sprinkled in there. Plus, with all the youth we will hopefully have in the pen next year, a vet for them to lean on is a good thing, as long as the vet is effective and when he is signed is not showing signs of decline, which Rhodes is not.

And remember, Rhodes said he wants to retire here. He wants to come back and be an Oriole.

I see your point, and when all is said and done, signing Rhodes wouldn't be the end of the world, but, I would just prefer to sign/trade for someone younger if possible. I'm just tired of bringing in older relievers and seeing them fall on their face.

Sports Guy

08-22-2006, 01:43 PM

I see your point, and when all is said and done, signing Rhodes wouldn't be the end of the world, but, I would just prefer to sign/trade for someone younger if possible. I'm just tired of bringing in older relievers and seeing them fall on their face.

As am I but i wouldn't blame the Orioles for this one. Rhodes isn't showing consistent bad trends, where the other guys they brought in did. So, the signs are not there of him falling on his face. Doesn't mean it can't happen of course but as long as his velocity is still there(which i would guess it is), he seems to be a low risk signing IMO.

oriole_way

08-22-2006, 02:02 PM

Interesting you left off Meyers and Villone, 2 of their better relievers.

I left them off because they aren't flame throwers. That isn't meant to imply that they aren't any good. My point is that the Yankees have 4-6 guys who can throw hard, not that their entire bullpen throws hard.

Guys like Myers and Villone can be part of a successful bullpen and have their roles but the Yankees don't have a bullpen full of Myerses and Villones.

Similarly, the Orioles can have a successful bullpen with the likes of Britton and Birkins but they need a few more guys like Proctor, Farnesworth, Sturtze, Dotel etc. The Yankees have enough of these guys that if someone gets hurt or is ineffective, they can plug in or try someone else. Even if Mariano got hurt, I think that their bullpen would get by.

On the other hand, if Ray misses any time next year or if Hoey isn't ready, then the bullpen will likely be in the lower half of the AL again, unless the Orioles can stock up on some guys who can bring it.