Will Carroll on Matsuzaka

[Sports Guy]

Matsuzaka is going to cost about $30m to buy his rights, then about the same for a three-year deal. I think that based on what I've seen of him on tape and at the Classic, he's one of the ten best pitchers in the game. There's a lot of risk there, both in adjustment and health, but a lot of upside.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=229&PHPSESSID=10dd72940953130978f9a1899f4972fd

[WEAVERMAN]

Matsuzaka is going to cost about $30m to buy his rights, then about the same for a three-year deal. I think that based on what I've seen of him on tape and at the Classic, he's one of the ten best pitchers in the game. There's a lot of risk there, both in adjustment and health, but a lot of upside.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=229&PHPSESSID=10dd72940953130978f9a1899f4972fd

And the odds PGA will offer him a contract are what?

[bgfield]

Matsuzaka is going to cost about $30m to buy his rights, then about the same for a three-year deal. I think that based on what I've seen of him on tape and at the Classic, he's one of the ten best pitchers in the game. There's a lot of risk there, both in adjustment and health, but a lot of upside.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=229&PHPSESSID=10dd72940953130978f9a1899f4972fd
Basically what you're saying is, he's a Yankee next year :D

[WEAVERMAN]

Basically what you're saying is, he's a Yankee next year :D

Isn't that sad or is it just plain disgusting?

[Mashed Potatoes]

"Carl Monday (Ohio): In your opinion, who are the most impressive front office people in baseball?

Will Carroll: Carl Monday. Good times.

You know, this is an impossible question. If I answer, I'll leave someone off the list and I'll get a nasty email. There are a TON of very smart people in front offices, far more than most people would think.

I'll say this rather than cop out: If I was hiring a GM, my interview list would go - Chris Antonetti (AGM, Cleveland), Dan Jennings (Scouting, Florida), Kim Ng (AGM, LA), Eddie Bane (Scouting, Angels), Jim Duquette(AGM, Baltimore), and Gary Huckabay."

Duquette's the man, he may have been a better addition than Mazzone.

[fansince71]

Matsuzaka is going to cost about $30m to buy his rights, then about the same for a three-year deal. I think that based on what I've seen of him on tape and at the Classic, he's one of the ten best pitchers in the game. There's a lot of risk there, both in adjustment and health, but a lot of upside.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=229&PHPSESSID=10dd72940953130978f9a1899f4972fd

Seeing him on tape? You put him among the top 10 in the league:rolleyes: Your joking right? Im sure Rick Ankiel looked pretty good on tape too.

[Sports Guy]

Seeing him on tape? You put him among the top 10 in the league:rolleyes: Your joking right? Im sure Rick Ankiel looked pretty good on tape too.

Well, between Carroll seeing him on tape, the WBC and i am sure, evaluating and translating his stats into the majors, he came up with that idea.

[Moose Milligan]

Duquette's the man, he may have been a better addition than Mazzone.

Provided he's allowed to do his job.

[ejf1025]

Seeing him on tape? You put him among the top 10 in the league:rolleyes: Your joking right? Im sure Rick Ankiel looked pretty good on tape too.

Hold on a minute. Rick Ankiel would have been one of the best pitchers in baseball if it wasn't for an extremely bizarre mental meltdown.

He didn't just look good on tape. He looked fantastic when he was striking out 194 big league batters and giving up 68 ERs in 175.0 IP with a WHIP in the 1.2s.

He was the Cardinals version of Daniel Cabrera with better pedigree.

If Matsuzaka looks like Rick Ankiel we should jump all over him and pray that mental disaster doesn't strike twice.

[Baltimoron]

Well, between Carroll seeing him on tape, the WBC and i am sure, evaluating and translating his stats into the majors, he came up with that idea.

Then say thats what Will thinks, because that translating part (sample size) adds a huge degree of credibility beyond the tapes and WBC.

Why don't we talk about the most important comment in the chat:


I hope they don't go spend a bunch of money, but instead focus on getting everything in order, then making a push once they've built an 85 win team

[OrioleDog]

That's Will's take, but not necessarily any kind of BPro consensus. Joe Sheehan's been making generally favorable Orioles comments since the deadline:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5373
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5489

Now, I don't know that we can make that 15 win improvement he alludes to without signing someone unlikely like Bonds, Sheffield or Edmonds, but if you sprinkle one of those guys in with a mega contract for Soriano or Lee, things could be pretty interesting.

FWIW, Clay Davenport told me a couple years ago that he thought Matsuzaka was a comparable talent to Jake Peavy. Of course, Daisuke's has had his arm slagged a couple more years since then, but he's still probably the pitcher I'd be most excited about acquiring.

[byrdz]

I'll say this rather than cop out: If I was hiring a GM, my interview list would go - Chris Antonetti (AGM, Cleveland), Dan Jennings (Scouting, Florida), Kim Ng (AGM, LA), Eddie Bane (Scouting, Angels), Jim Duquette(AGM, Baltimore), and Gary Huckabay."

Duquette's the man, he may have been a better addition than Mazzone.


This was good to here, I think we got a little lucky acquiring Duquette.

[El Gordo]

"Carl Monday (Ohio): In your opinion, who are the most impressive front office people in baseball?

Will Carroll: Carl Monday. Good times.

You know, this is an impossible question. If I answer, I'll leave someone off the list and I'll get a nasty email. There are a TON of very smart people in front offices, far more than most people would think.

I'll say this rather than cop out: If I was hiring a GM, my interview list would go - Chris Antonetti (AGM, Cleveland), Dan Jennings (Scouting, Florida), Kim Ng (AGM, LA), Eddie Bane (Scouting, Angels), Jim Duquette(AGM, Baltimore), and Gary Huckabay."

Duquette's the man, he may have been a better addition than Mazzone.Not too loud, most people around hear think he's an idiot for not trading for Baker and not bringing up the mighty Terrero.:rolleyes:

[Baltimoron]

That's Will's take, but not necessarily any kind of BPro consensus. Joe Sheehan's been making generally favorable Orioles comments since the deadline:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5373
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5489

Now, I don't know that we can make that 15 win improvement he alludes to without signing someone unlikely like Bonds, Sheffield or Edmonds, but if you sprinkle one of those guys in with a mega contract for Soriano or Lee, things could be pretty interesting.


I agree its not a consensus, but I think Joe indirectly supports Will's point: best case scenario the Os get to 85 or so wins, and as you allude, that involves taking on some serious salary and making risky signings. So best case we are third best in the division with a lot less payroll flexibility? There's an out in that its possible increased competitiveness makes MASN a money machine and we can thereafter re-up like the Blue Jays, but it seems constrictive. But maybe I lack vision.

I favor letting the pitching grow and I'm not entirely sure what else, but I fear adding big payroll *with* long term/multi-year strings attached. I can live with a mega deal but if Soriano for no more than 5 years (maybe an option).

I think the Braves comp is appealling but entirely unrealistic. We have no Leibrandt (he was much better in 90 than any vet on our staff this year) and neither Loewen or Dcab are where Glavine was, although the Avery comp doesn't seem unrealistic. In 1991 they also had 4 guys give them 210+ innings while we have a 5 man rotation, which means one more starter must also put it together.

[BigSkip]

So 60 million for a Japanese pitcher with little to no experience against ML level hitters?

PASS.

[El Gordo]

That's Will's take, but not necessarily any kind of BPro consensus. Joe Sheehan's been making generally favorable Orioles comments since the deadline:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5373
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5489

Now, I don't know that we can make that 15 win improvement he alludes to without signing someone unlikely like Bonds, Sheffield or Edmonds, but if you sprinkle one of those guys in with a mega contract for Soriano or Lee, things could be pretty interesting.

FWIW, Clay Davenport told me a couple years ago that he thought Matsuzaka was a comparable talent to Jake Peavy. Of course, Daisuke's has had his arm slagged a couple more years since then, but he's still probably the pitcher I'd be most excited about acquiring.
A #4 and #5 pitching combo that can win 20 games instead of the 9 this year's duo has, plus the 4-6 extra wins Drungo says a league average 1B and LF would provide, give you 15 wins at least right there. Then improve the bullpen enough to hold the 4-6 leads of Bedard and Benson that they gave up and you have a 20 game improvement. So this time next year we would be at 85 wins. How hard is that. It wouldn't take a Soriano or a Matsuzaka to do this. The main task is finding the bullpen arms. Any combination of Burrell, Wilson, Enberg, Catalanotto, Delucci, Crisp etc. could give you better than league average at LF and 1B. Could Lopez and DCab be counted on for 20 wins between them next year? You Think Bedard and Benson could repeat their performance next year? IMO this is not an unreasonable expectation.

[Baltimoron]

A #4 and #5 pitching combo that can win 20 games instead of the 9 this year's duo has, plus the 4-6 extra wins Drungo says a league average 1B and LF would provide, give you 15 wins at least right there. Then improve the bullpen enough to hold the 4-6 leads of Bedard and Benson that they gave up and you have a 20 game improvement..

You are double counting by mixing and matching incompatable win estimates. The extra runs from improving the offense contribute to the "extra wins" in the back of the rotation.

You have to talk in terms of increased runs scored and fewer runs allowed to be interchangeable.

I also think you are underestimating how hard it might be to improve 20 wins without enourmous strides by the pitching staff, but I like your outlook.

[mweb]

So 60 million for a Japanese pitcher with little to no experience against ML level hitters?

PASS.

And I bet all teams would pass on 3/60 for him. I highly doubt he'll get that much, the only way he does if the two NY teams along with Boston and maybe Seattle or LA get into an absurd bidding war for him.

[El Gordo]

You are double counting by mixing and matching incompatable win estimates. The extra runs from improving the offense contribute to the "extra wins" in the back of the rotation.

You have to talk in terms of increased runs scored and fewer runs allowed to be interchangeable.

I also think you are underestimating how hard it might be to improve 20 wins without enourmous strides by the pitching staff, but I like your outlook.
Benson and Bedard have pitched well enough to win 32 games instead of the 25 they have between them. A good bullpen would have provided the difference without any other changes. We have the worst LF OPS in all of baseball. League average production would give you a few extra wins. You also have to take in account the improvement of Tejada and Markakis and even Mora with more depth and power in the line up. Chen and Lopez have lost at least 10 games by huge margins. Decent pitching in those 10 games would have given us at least a shot. I don't think I'm far off at all.

[scOtt]

I can see $10 mill per for 3 years, even a little more than that. But 30 mill just to negotiate??? [Forget] that!

[Baltimoron]

Benson and Bedard have pitched well enough to win 32 games instead of the 25 they have between them. A good bullpen would have provided the difference without any other changes. We have the worst LF OPS in all of baseball. League average production would give you a few extra wins. You also have to take in account the improvement of Tejada and Markakis and even Mora with more depth and power in the line up. Chen and Lopez have lost at least 10 games by huge margins. Decent pitching in those 10 games would have given us at least a shot. I don't think I'm far off at all.

I think your 20 win improvement is doable, but think the odds of it all comming together are a bit longer than you might believe.

[DrungoHazewood]

So 60 million for a Japanese pitcher with little to no experience against ML level hitters?

PASS.

But the going rate for a Kevin Millwood-type is $60M or so. Matsuzaka is every bit the pitcher Millwood is. I think he's better.

You can say he has little or no experience against ML level hitters, but it isn't true. There are dozens of Japanese League players who'd be good major league hitters. There are guys like Hideki Matsui (such as Fukuoka's Nobihiko Matsunaka), quite a few former major leaguers, guys like Seung-yeop Lee (who the Yanks are likely to bid on). The White Sox' Iguchi was just a pretty good player in Japan - there are many guys better than him. The best analysis is that Japan's Leagues are somewhere in between AAA and Major League quality, but even that sells them short because there are many, many more major league-quality players in Japan than in AAA.

But just for the sake of argument, even if Japan is only AAA, what do you think the going rate on the open market would be for a guy who'd put up six or eight years in the International League with an ERA in the 2.00s with over a K an inning, great control, and several major league out pitches? I'd bet it would be close to $60M.

The O's won't spend that, but chances are he'll be worth every bit as much as comparable free agents with major league experience.

[Mackus]

But the going rate for a Kevin Millwood-type is $60M or so. Matsuzaka is every bit the pitcher Millwood is. I think he's better.

But that $60M is just for 3 years. Assuming he pitches well over those three years, he'd probably make another $45M during his 3 arbitration years.

So we're talking a minimum commitment of 3/$60M and going as high as 6/$105M if he's kept for the full 6 years service time.

Thats just insane.

[DrungoHazewood]

But that $60M is just for 3 years. Assuming he pitches well over those three years, he'd probably make another $45M during his 3 arbitration years.

So we're talking a minimum commitment of 3/$60M and going as high as 6/$105M if he's kept for the full 6 years service time.

Thats just insane.

Yea, for just three years that's pretty crazy. I'm still betting he doesn't get that much - that's leaps and bounds above what any other Japanese player has ever received before, and similar to the hyper-loony deals that Kevin Brown and Darren Dreifort got.

If Matsuzaka signs early for anything like $100M the O's better start looking to trade Miggy, Benson, and the kitchen sink because there's no way they'll be a major player on a market that inflated.

[Mackus]

Yea, for just three years that's pretty crazy. I'm still betting he doesn't get that much - that's leaps and bounds above what any other Japanese player has ever received before, and similar to the hyper-loony deals that Kevin Brown and Darren Dreifort got.

If Matsuzaka signs early for anything like $100M the O's better start looking to trade Miggy, Benson, and the kitchen sink because there's no way they'll be a major player on a market that inflated.
I think he'll only get a 3-4 year deal, so he won't approach $100M unless things get really crazy.

I'd still be very, very surprised if the posting goes as high as Carroll is suggesting here. Anything more than $20M would be a huge shock to me. If I'm the Orioles, I offer in the $15-16M range and then hope to sign him to a 3-4 year deal for $8-$10M per year.

If he costs more than that, then he's too big of a risk, IMO. Its just insane to commit over $15M a year to a guy who's never pitched in the majors.

[DrungoHazewood]

If he costs more than that, then he's too big of a risk, IMO. Its just insane to commit over $15M a year to a guy who's never pitched in the majors.

It's crazy, unless you're on the verge of being really good but are an arm short, to sign any pitcher to a $15M a year deal for 4-6 years.

I don't think the "never pitched in the majors" even comes into play. Everyone knows he's a very good major league pitcher, saying otherwise is just a bargaining tool.

Matsuzaka is exactly like Lefty Grove. Grove pitched for the IL Orioles when they were still an independent team, was a perennial 25 or 30 game winner, and everyone knew he was one of the better pitchers in the world. Major League teams got into a bidding war for his services, and Connie Mack's A's ended up paying $100k for him when Babe Ruth was making $50k or $60k a year and an average player was making a few thousand a year.

[bigbird]

We're not even going to bid!!!!

[DrungoHazewood]

We're not even going to bid!!!!

No surprise there. Gibbons, Surhoff, and Conine are fan favorites, they'll really bring in the season tickets. Matsuzaka and the gyroball craze and legions of Japanese fans... just too risky. :(

[66-70-83-??]

No surprise there. Gibbons, Surhoff, and Conine are fan favorites, they'll really bring in the season tickets. Matsuzaka and the gyroball craze and legions of Japanese fans... just too risky. :(


Right !

Why in the world would you want your business becoming a hot topic the world over ? Why would you want to accomodate every Japanese media outlet, ESPN, SI, FoxSports, etc.....so they can do a positive story on your club ?

Why would you want thousands of tourists in your ballbark ?

Why would you want millions of extra TV viewers around the world watching your games ?

Why would you want an International star on your team ?

It is too risky- he is only 26 yrs old. Just a kid. Wait til he is around 40 yrs old - then it will be "safe" to sign him. He will be "cheap", so he will be almost risk-free. Just the way we like it.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[Sports Guy]

I still say some of you are looking at the posting fee wrong. You guys look at it as part of the salary.

Other teams will look at it as a marketing investment.

It is like spending 30 million on advertising.

[Mark Carver]

I still say some of you are looking at the posting fee wrong. You guys look at it as part of the salary.

Other teams will look at it as a marketing investment.

It is like spending 30 million on advertising.

I don't think the Japanese market in the Baltimore/DC area is that huge...

[Sports Guy]

I don't think the Japanese market in the Baltimore/DC area is that huge...

Its not huge but it does exist and you can cultivate it from other areas.

[66-70-83-??]

I don't think the Japanese market in the Baltimore/DC area is that huge...

I think folks will appear out of the woodwork when this guy is on the mound.

:eek:

Also, isn't every NYY and Seattle game broadcast throughout Japan (because of demand for it !) ?

[Mackus]

I still say some of you are looking at the posting fee wrong. You guys look at it as part of the salary.

Other teams will look at it as a marketing investment.

It is like spending 30 million on advertising.
Do they even spend $30M on advertising regularly? I doubt it.

Thats an awful lot of money. I know we'll recoup a lot of money from increased attention from Japanese fans, but the main reason that Seattle and NY profit from their Japanese stars is because of the TV deals in Japan, and we would not get a piece of that - at least not right away. Just the increase in ticket sales and local TV watching won't be a colossal amount of money, maybe a few million a year.

If we could get a share of the Japanese TV market though, that would be an entirely different story.

[66-70-83-??]

Do they even spend $30M on advertising regularly? I doubt it.

Thats an awful lot of money. I know we'll recoup a lot of money from increased attention from Japanese fans, but the main reason that Seattle and NY profit from their Japanese stars is because of the TV deals in Japan, and we would not get a piece of that - at least not right away. Just the increase in ticket sales and local TV watching won't be a colossal amount of money, maybe a few million a year.

If we could get a share of the Japanese TV market though, that would be an entirely different story.

PA has the money !

What about the goodwill purchased among the fanbase ?

This would shock the baseball community worldwide.

He can erase a whole lot of mistakes and turn around the credibility faster with this move than any other, imo.

This statement SCREAMS "we want to WIN", "we do care", "we are serious".

[Mackus]

PA has the money !

What about the goodwill purchased among the fanbase ?

This would shock the baseball community worldwide.

He can erase a whole lot of mistakes and turn around the credibility faster with this move than any other, imo.
We don't have an unlimited flow of money. Even with the MASN money, we have a limit.

Dropping $60M for 3 years of a pitcher is an awful lot of money to spend, and its probably not a good idea if it inhibits us from doing other things.

Its never a good idea to have no limit on how much you will spend for a certain player. No player is worth a blank check. You can be willing to overspend for players - and Matsuzaka is a guy I'd overspend for - but 3/$60M or 6/$100M+ is way too much money to commit to a guy, IMO, even if he will make back some of that in advertising.

[bigbird]

No surprise there. Gibbons, Surhoff, and Conine are fan favorites, they'll really bring in the season tickets. Matsuzaka and the gyroball craze and legions of Japanese fans... just too risky. :(


More like $20 million per year for a team with a $90 million max payroll is just dumb.

[Mackus]

More like $20 million per year for a team with a $90 million max payroll is just dumb.
100% agree, but what if its only $15M per year, and having that player will increase marketing revenues by $3-5M per year?

It makes a lot more sense in that case.

[66-70-83-??]

Do they even spend $30M on advertising regularly? I doubt it.

Thats an awful lot of money. I know we'll recoup a lot of money from increased attention from Japanese fans, but the main reason that Seattle and NY profit from their Japanese stars is because of the TV deals in Japan, and we would not get a piece of that - at least not right away. Just the increase in ticket sales and local TV watching won't be a colossal amount of money, maybe a few million a year.

If we could get a share of the Japanese TV market though, that would be an entirely different story.


It is a lot of money, but if we will recoup a lot of it- what's the problem ?

Do you really think Houston's ownership would pay 22 million to Clemens for 1/2 of a season for strictly baseball stats ?

If Clemens is a financial success (or a break even) at 22 mill for only 1/2 a season for Houston, I gotta believe PA can afford Matsuzaka.

[bigbird]

I still say some of you are looking at the posting fee wrong. You guys look at it as part of the salary.

Other teams will look at it as a marketing investment.

It is like spending 30 million on advertising.


Still comes out of the operating budget. Here's an idea...Let's big $35 million to negotiate then play hardball with Boras and only offer $5 million per season. He rejects it, we don't get him and neither does NY.

[bigbird]

It is a lot of money, but if we will recoup a lot of it- what's the problem ?

Do you really think Houston's ownership would pay 22 million to Clemens for 1/2 of a season for strictly baseball stats ?

If Clemens is a financial success (or a break even) at 22 mill for only 1/2 a season for Houston, I gotta believe PA can afford Matsuzaka.

How are you going to re-coup lot of the $30 million.

[Mackus]

It is a lot of money, but if we will recoup a lot of it- what's the problem ?

Do you really think Houston's ownership would pay 22 million to Clemens for 1/2 of a season for strictly baseball stats ?

If Clemens is a financial success (or a break even) at 22 mill for only 1/2 a season for Houston, I gotta believe PA can afford Matsuzaka.
Clemens didn't get the full $22M, but he is a good comparison.

That said, I'd be surprised if Matsuzaka is as big of a draw here as Clemens is in Houston.

I'm all for spending a lot of money to get Matsuzaka here, but there is a limit to what is a good decision and a bad decision. Posting $30M and then giving him a 3/$30M contract is too much, IMO. If the post is in the $15-20M range, then it becomes a lot more reasonbable to me.

[Sports Guy]

Again...The 20-30 million for the posting fee is not against your payroll.

It is just a huge chunk of change coming out of the organization but it is not against the payroll.

[66-70-83-??]

More like $20 million per year for a team with a $90 million max payroll is just dumb.


We don't have an unlimited flow of money. Even with the MASN money, we have a limit

First, I never said to write a blank check.

However, I do not think he will cost $20 mill per year. I do not believe he will cost that much.

I think everyone is stuck on how much he will cost (salary/posting fee) without considering his "net cost". This guy will probably increase revenues far more than any other player we could get this offseason.

All players are business decisions but this guy is a special case where he will bring in more revenue dollars than his stats would dictate.

Yes, I would overpay, but of course there would be a limit.

[RZNJ]

Do they even spend $30M on advertising regularly? I doubt it.

Thats an awful lot of money. I know we'll recoup a lot of money from increased attention from Japanese fans, but the main reason that Seattle and NY profit from their Japanese stars is because of the TV deals in Japan, and we would not get a piece of that - at least not right away. Just the increase in ticket sales and local TV watching won't be a colossal amount of money, maybe a few million a year.

If we could get a share of the Japanese TV market though, that would be an entirely different story.

This would seem like a key. The thing is. Did Seattle & the Yanks get the TV deals and then get the Japanese players, or did they get the Japanese players and then get the right to televise in Japan? I would think that if someone signed Matsuzaka that there would be a huge interest on the part of Japanese people to watch him pitch in the U.S. and perhaps become long distance fans of the Orioles.

[66-70-83-??]

How are you going to re-coup lot of the $30 million.

Matsuzaka would bring a lot of interest with him. Casual fans would be curious enough to watch him.

More interest = more ticket sales/concession sales = more revenue.

More interest also means more listeners/viewers which means more (advert.) revenue.

If we only sign Carlos Lee for 5/75 - is he going to increase revenue as much as Matsuzaka would at say 4/60 ?

[Lucky Jim]

We should note, however, that - though Matsuzaka is a national hero - he'll only be pitching once every 5 days. So, even if there IS a demand in Japan, the fact that he's not an everyday player may cut into whatever profits could be made through television forays into the Japanese market.

Edit: No one's responded to this point, but I've got to imagine that Japanese deals to cover everyday players would be far more lucrative than a deal to cover a pitcher - we're talking 1/5 of the games of a starting rightfielder. That's millions of dollars.

[bigbird]

Matsuzaka would bring a lot of interest with him. Casual fans would be curious enough to watch him.

More interest = more ticket sales/concession sales = more revenue.

More interest also means more listeners/viewers which means more (advert.) revenue.

If we only sign Carlos Lee for 5/75 - is he going to increase revenue as much as Matsuzaka would at say 4/60 ?


Problem is you need Lee (or other offensive upgrades) in addition to the pitcher.

[Cokeman]

This would shock the baseball community worldwide.

Peter "The Body" Angelos...gotta love it. ;)

[66-70-83-??]

Problem is you need Lee (or other offensive upgrades) in addition to the pitcher.

Well, every one's wish list has the Orioles signing two big dollar FA's like Soriano/Zito or Lee/Schmidt.

So, I am operating under the assumption that we can afford two big stars.

Matsuzaka might cost a little more than the average big starter because of the one-time posting fee, but he will bring in more revenue (and from more sources) than any other, imo.

Plus, his signing will bring more goodwill and good press to the Orioles at a time when they need it the most.

[Sports Guy]

Matsuzaka would bring a lot of interest with him. Casual fans would be curious enough to watch him.

More interest = more ticket sales/concession sales = more revenue.

More interest also means more listeners/viewers which means more (advert.) revenue.

If we only sign Carlos Lee for 5/75 - is he going to increase revenue as much as Matsuzaka would at say 4/60 ?
I am not sure about the casual fan. I think the casual fan would be more interested in seeing Zito, a guy they have heard of.

[Sports Guy]

Problem is you need Lee (or other offensive upgrades) in addition to the pitcher.


And you can still get them. Matzusaka will only make 7-10 million in the first year of his contract, which is the same as some think we should pay guys like Lilly, Suppan or Meche.

[66-70-83-??]

I am not sure about the casual fan. I think the casual fan would be more interested in seeing Zito, a guy they have heard of.
Until they start hearing all the stories about his 250 pitch/17 inning game in high school, the gyroball story, and seeing his mug on billboards.....:p

[Mackus]

Matsuzaka would bring a lot of interest with him. Casual fans would be curious enough to watch him.

More interest = more ticket sales/concession sales = more revenue.

The increased ticket sales are almost meaningless compared to TV revenue.

The biggest things we could benefit from in getting Matsuzaka would be the Asian TV market. Right now it is shared solely by Seattle and New York. I have no idea how often the regions are redrawn, but if we could somehow get a piece of that as a result of getting Matsuzaka, that might almost pay for his entire salary and posting fee each year.

Without getting a share of the Asian TV market, I doubt we'd increase our revenues more than a couple million or dollars a year solely because of marketing Matsuzaka.

[RZNJ]

I am not sure about the casual fan. I think the casual fan would be more interested in seeing Zito, a guy they have heard of.


When Matsuzaka comes here. He will most likely become a national story no matter where he signs. People who are not even baseball fans are more likely to know who he is by next April/May than 90% of ML players. If he pitches like an ace, he'll be a VERY big story, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

Do they play Japanese games on the radio?

What about NY and Seattle games?

And RZ brought up a good point. Before they got Ichiro and Matsui, could you watch the M's and Yanks in Japan anyway or did they get TV rights when they got those guys??

[Sports Guy]

When Matsuzaka comes here. He will most likely become a national story no matter where he signs. People who are not even baseball fans are more likely to know who he is by next April/May than 90% of ML players. If he pitches like an ace, he'll be a VERY big story, IMO.


Yea, this is true but i still think people would be more inclined to buy season tickets if we signed Zito over Matzusaka.

Maybe as the season goes along and they see him and realize how good he is, that changes things but he doesn't have a ML 23 win season, a Cy young award or all the playoff exposure that Zito has. Those are things the casual fan recognizes.

[RZNJ]

Yea, this is true but i still think people would be more inclined to buy season tickets if we signed Zito over Matzusaka.

Maybe as the season goes along and they see him and realize how good he is, that changes things but he doesn't have a ML 23 win season, a Cy young award or all the playoff exposure that Zito has. Those are things the casual fan recognizes.

Yeah, I agree about the season ticket angle. However, I think you agree, that by next summer Matsuzaka could have greater name recognition than Zito to even the casual fan. Hell, he'll probably have some catch nickname by then so we won't have to call him Matsuzaka.

[Mackus]

Do they play Japanese games on the radio?

What about NY and Seattle games?

And RZ brought up a good point. Before they got Ichiro and Matsui, could you watch the M's and Yanks in Japan anyway or did they get TV rights when they got those guys??
I think they signed Ichiro and Irabu and then got the market, but thats just a educated guess.

I have no idea how MLB districts their TV regions, or how often they are redrawn. But, I imagine if we signed a major Japanese player and he became wildly popular, that we could get a piece of that market.

OT:
A few other random TV market rights include Toronto owning all of Canada and the Angels owning all of the DR and (I believe) Central/South America.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, I agree about the season ticket angle. However, I think you agree, that by next summer Matsuzaka could have greater name recognition than Zito to even the casual fan. Hell, he'll probably have some catch nickname by then so we won't have to call him Matsuzaka.

Yea, i agree with that. But the initial reaction by the fan base would be more joy for Zito.

[Sports Guy]

Where are the largest asian markets in the country?

What is the asian market for the DC/BMore area? Does anyone know? Have that info?

[Fan4Life]

No surprise there. Gibbons, Surhoff, and Conine are fan favorites, they'll really bring in the season tickets. Matsuzaka and the gyroball craze and legions of Japanese fans... just too risky. :(

As you have pointed out, you don't need fans in the seats to make money in MLB.

[66-70-83-??]

Where are the largest asian markets in the country?

What is the asian market for the DC/BMore area? Does anyone know? Have that info?

According to this report:

Wash.DC ranks 3rd in nation, Baltimore 13th as a percentage of Asian population.

http://www.gbc.org/reports/SoR2003/Population/asianpopulation.htm

EDIT: Here are the population numbers. You can do the math- take the % numbers and multiply it by the actual population. NOTE: the source for these two linked reports is the US Census Bureau.

http://www.gbc.org/reports/SoR2003/Population/metropopulation.htm

[RZNJ]

Where are the largest asian markets in the country?

What is the asian market for the DC/BMore area? Does anyone know? Have that info?

No idea. I'd imagine NY and LA have the largest asian markets. The $64,000 question is what is Seattle's asian market. I know they have Japanese ownership but is there a huge asian population in the Seattle area relative to other U.S. cities? I think even if the asian market is small, that conceding the Japanese stars to NY, LA, & Seattle is a huge defecit to the other teams. Someone with some foresight will step up and become another player in the Asian market. Maybe Boston.

[Mackus]

Where are the largest asian markets in the country?

What is the asian market for the DC/BMore area? Does anyone know? Have that info?
Accoring to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_American) the highest proportion of Asian American citizens are:

1 Honolulu
2 SF Bay Area
3 Greater LA Area
4 Sacramento
5 San Diego
6 Seattle-Tacoma
7 New York
8 Baltimore/Washington Metropolitan
9 Houston
10 Las Vegas

Seems like we'd have a decent base for a market. Thats just % of population though, couldn't find a ranking in terms of gross population, but the same site lists our pop as 7.6M asians, NY is 21.2M, Seattle is 3.5M, LA is 16.4M.

[Fan4Life]

Does anyone think it is a factor that whichever team signs him, he is likely to teach(or at least attempt to) that Gyro pitch to fellow pitching teamates? Looks like a rather devestating pitch with apparently little stress on the arm.

[bigbird]

And you can still get them. Matzusaka will only make 7-10 million in the first year of his contract, which is the same as some think we should pay guys like Lilly, Suppan or Meche.

With Boras as his agent? You're fooling yourself. Don't you think he'll get more than Millwood?

[bigbird]

Accoring to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_American) the highest proportion of Asian American citizens are:

1 Honolulu
2 SF Bay Area
3 Greater LA Area
4 Sacramento
5 San Diego
6 Seattle-Tacoma
7 New York
8 Baltimore/Washington Metropolitan
9 Houston
10 Las Vegas

Seems like we'd have a decent base for a market. Thats just % of population though, couldn't find a ranking in terms of gross population, but the same site lists our pop as 7.6M asians, NY is 21.2M, Seattle is 3.5M, LA is 16.4M.

Too bad almost all of that market is in Montgomery County, DC, and NoVa.

[66-70-83-??]

Accoring to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_American) the highest proportion of Asian American citizens are:

1 Honolulu
2 SF Bay Area
3 Greater LA Area
4 Sacramento
5 San Diego
6 Seattle-Tacoma
7 New York
8 Baltimore/Washington Metropolitan
9 Houston
10 Las Vegas

Seems like we'd have a decent base for a market. Thats just % of population though, couldn't find a ranking in terms of gross population, but the same site lists our pop as 7.6M asians, NY is 21.2M, Seattle is 3.5M, LA is 16.4M.

You always have to take Wikipedia stuff with a grain of salt, but this line was in the report-


Census data shows that Asian American populations are developing in major metropolitan areas off of the West Coast, with visible communities in areas in and around Washington, D.C./Baltimore

Did you see that PA ? :p

[bigbird]

Yea, i agree with that. But the initial reaction by the fan base would be more joy for Zito.


Or could he become the next Kaz Matsui????

[66-70-83-??]

With Boras as his agent? You're fooling yourself. Don't you think he'll get more than Millwood?

But, there is precedent on the posting team's side.

And there is no competition after the posting process. The winning bidder has exclusive bargaining rights.

There is no other team for Boras to play the Orioles off of.

There will probably be some winks, nods, and backroom deals between the "winning" bidder and the posting team (Seibu) to ensure the right team wins the bid. :rolleyes:

[RZNJ]

Or could he become the next Kaz Matsui????

That's where scouting comes in. Of course, we don't have any scouts for Japanese players. Thankfully, everyone in baseball was able to see this guy at the WBC. Hopefully, they were able to form an accurate opinion.

[Mackus]

With Boras as his agent? You're fooling yourself. Don't you think he'll get more than Millwood?
No, because he can only negotiate with one team. Otherwise he has to go back to Japan. That will only drive his cost down for next season.

I know Boras holds his draft clients out for a year from time to time, but those players are younger and have a better chance of improving their stock. I doubt Matsuzaka can improve his status any more than it is right now.

I think he gets about $8-10M per year.

[Mackus]

There will probably be some winks, nods, and backroom deals between the "winning" bidder and the posting team (Seibu) to ensure the right team wins the bid. :rolleyes:
As I understand it, the posting bids go to the commisioner's office, not the Japanese team. Whoever places the highest bid to the commisioner's office gains the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka, then if a contract is reached, they pay the team the amount bid.

[66-70-83-??]

Or could he become the next Kaz Matsui????

You are right.

You have just convinced me.

Stay away from Matsuzaka.

Lets pocket the money and go after Kerry Wood instead. :rolleyes:

Lets stick to the reclamation projects and 38+ year olds. Lets continue to scrape the bottom of the barrels in an effort to find a 1 mill dollar player who will have a 1.7 mill dollar year for us.

After all, this strategy has worked really well for the last 9 years. Why stop now ? Why take a risk on a 26 yr old pitcher with excellent control and a 96 mph FB w/ movement, and a 92 mph slider ?

Of course he could be the next Kaz Matsui. And the world could end tomorrow. :confused:

[66-70-83-??]

As I understand it, the posting bids go to the commisioner's office, not the Japanese team. Whoever places the highest bid to the commisioner's office gains the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka, then if a contract is reached, they pay the team the amount bid.


Thanks.


I hope it is a "legit" process. :cool:

[Woody Held]

Take that 60 million and sign Zito. Go with the guy with a track record and has proven he can get MLB players out consistently

[Mackus]

Take that 60 million and sign Zito. Go with the guy with a track record and has proven he can get MLB players out consistently
$60M isn't getting Zito.

He's going to get a 5/$75M offer from a contender. Beat that by a year and a million per, and we're in the discussion. I don't touch him for that money.

Heck, for even money, I'd take Matsuzaka over Zito.

[RZNJ]

$60M isn't getting Zito.

He's going to get a 5/$75M offer from a contender. Beat that by a year and a million per, and we're in the discussion. I don't touch him for that money.

Heck, for even money, I'd take Matsuzaka over Zito.

Unfortunately, I think you know that we have a far bettre chance at Zito than Matsuzaka. I agree with Bigbird that the O's won't even be involved in the bidding process. It's probably a done deal that he's going to the Yankees with Seattle a distant second.

[TonySoprano]

Where are the largest asian markets in the country?

What is the asian market for the DC/BMore area? Does anyone know? Have that info?WADR, the asian market size in this case doesn't matter. The Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans markets don't mix. Without turning this into a history lesson, there's a lot of bad blood between the cultures. Let's leave it at that.

[Sports Guy]

With Boras as his agent? You're fooling yourself. Don't you think he'll get more than Millwood?

No chance...I don't think anyone gives 20-30 million to post him and then give him a contract greater than 5/60.

[Sports Guy]

Or could he become the next Kaz Matsui????

You can say this about most FA's, especially the ones available this offseason.

Carlos Lee has as good a chance to have a 820 OPS as he does to have a 900 OPS, same with Soriano.

They are all risks.

The biggest risk, IMO, with this guy is health.

[Sports Guy]

Unfortunately, I think you know that we have a far bettre chance at Zito than Matsuzaka. I agree with Bigbird that the O's won't even be involved in the bidding process. It's probably a done deal that he's going to the Yankees with Seattle a distant second.
Don't count out the Mets, LA, Cubs or Rangers in Matzusaka race either. That is why the posting is going to go high. Alot of big money teams will get involved.

With the 2 NY teams out of the race with Zito(btw, i think the MEts will still want him and this is posturing but lets pretend that they are telling the truth), will Zito get crazy money?

The Rangers and Padres are said to be the biggest contenders for him right now.....I don't see the Pads going 5/65 much less 5/75. I guess the Rangers would at least give him what they did Millwood.

[TonySoprano]

I definitely agree that the Mets are posturing on Zito.

[DrungoHazewood]

Or could he become the next Kaz Matsui????

And Zito could become the next Carl Pavano. Or Jaret Wright. Or have a first year like AJ Burnett.

Matsuzaka is no more risky than any American free agent pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

So, it seems that the Baltimore/DC metro area is a top 5-10 asian market in the country.

We have the NY/NJ area within driving distance and, it is an area where the Orioles sell more season tickets than you guys think.

So, we have some areas to market.

Now, the question i have is this....Can we sell MASN to cable companies in LA or places like that?

[Mackus]

Now, the question i have is this....Can we sell MASN to cable companies in LA or places like that?
Highly doubful. At least in terms of being able to broadcast Oriole games in those markets. I'm sure they belong to other teams and that the Oriole games would be blacked out.

I really don't think Matsuzaka will have anything more than a slight marketing impact (no more so than any other big FA) unless we are able to get a share of the Japanese TV market, in which case he would almost be playing for free.

[TyCobb]

Highly doubful. At least in terms of being able to broadcast Oriole games in those markets. I'm sure they belong to other teams and that the Oriole games would be blacked out.

I really don't think Matsuzaka will have anything more than a slight marketing impact (no more so than any other big FA) unless we are able to get a share of the Japanese TV market, in which case he would almost be playing for free.

You could have MASN in LA or NY or Japan with Direct TV. I know that the YES network does it so if they can do it we can do it.

[Mackus]

You could have MASN in LA or NY or Japan with Direct TV. I know that the YES network does it so if they can do it we can do it.
True but I think the games are blacked out on the YES network unless you pay the extra $150 or whatever it is for the MLB package. And I believe the money for that package is split evenly amongst MLB teams.

There really isn't any way to gain revenue from another team's TV markets unless you also have a share of the market.

[El Gordo]

You are right.

You have just convinced me.

Stay away from Matsuzaka.

Lets pocket the money and go after Kerry Wood instead. :rolleyes:

Lets stick to the reclamation projects and 38+ year olds. Lets continue to scrape the bottom of the barrels in an effort to find a 1 mill dollar player who will have a 1.7 mill dollar year for us.

After all, this strategy has worked really well for the last 9 years. Why stop now ? Why take a risk on a 26 yr old pitcher with excellent control and a 96 mph FB w/ movement, and a 92 mph slider ?

Of course he could be the next Kaz Matsui. And the world could end tomorrow. :confused:
Matsuzaka 3/$60 mil.(including posting fee);Zito5/$70mil.; Schmidt 3/$50mil.; Soriano 6/$90mil.; Lee 5/$70mil. This is likely what it would take to get these guys to turn down playing for a contender and or playing close to home and come to a notoriously disfunctional organization. If Angelos was willing to write a blank check should we go after any of these guys?

[Baltimoron]

True but I think the games are blacked out on the YES network unless you pay the extra $150 or whatever it is for the MLB package. And I believe the money for that package is split evenly amongst MLB teams.

There really isn't any way to gain revenue from another team's TV markets unless you also have a share of the market.

This is correct

[Baltimoron]

That's where scouting comes in. Of course, we don't have any scouts for Japanese players. Thankfully, everyone in baseball was able to see this guy at the WBC. Hopefully, they were able to form an accurate opinion.

Do you mean the Orioles? Many others teams have a scouting presence in Asia, so its not as if the "MLB consensus" is based on the WBC. For example:


The Mariners have either part-time or full-time scouts in Korea, Taiwan, China and Australia, and obviously also keep a close watch on players in Japan. Nor are they alone. The Mets have had a full-time scout in Japan for five years.

link (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/bbinternational.shtml)

[Baltimoron]

The increased ticket sales are almost meaningless compared to TV revenue.

The biggest things we could benefit from in getting Matsuzaka would be the Asian TV market. Right now it is shared solely by Seattle and New York. I have no idea how often the regions are redrawn, but if we could somehow get a piece of that as a result of getting Matsuzaka, that might almost pay for his entire salary and posting fee each year.

Without getting a share of the Asian TV market, I doubt we'd increase our revenues more than a couple million or dollars a year solely because of marketing Matsuzaka.

MLB International handles broadcast rights, sponsorships, licensing agreements and merchandising deals outside the U.S. and distributes the revenue evenly to the teams. This is where, absent new revenue sharing ideas, MLB must grow if it is to level the financial playing field.


What once generated less than $10 million in revenue when it was founded in 1989, Major League Baseball International, which is responsible for negotiating broadcast rights, sponsorships, licensing agreements and merchandising deals outside the U.S., is quickly becoming a cash cow for the league.
......
Thanks to the influx of Asian players who have left their homeland to test their skills in Major League Baseball, the league suddenly has a new source of revenue with an international unit now expected to generate some $80 million this year. That's revenue that will be spread among each team in the league, virtual manna from heaven for small-market teams which claim to be in desperate need of a cash infusion.
link (http://espn.go.com/gen/s/2002/0509/1380659.html)

There is some precedent for a boost to local revenue as a result of signing a Japanese player.


But not all revenue generated from Asian sources is shared among all 30 MLB teams.

The Mariners have four Japanese companies with an advertising presence at Safeco Field. Given the team's international TV exposure, the signs are meant to target both American and Japanese audiences. Nintendo, whose president Hiroshi Yamauchi is the team's majority investor, has rotational signage in Kanji (Japanese script) behind home plate. Video game publisher Konami, food company Ajinomoto and car-maker Nissan are the others.
link (http://espn.go.com/gen/s/2002/0509/1380659.html)

[Sports Guy]

So, could we get some advertisements in the park from Japanese companies?

[MarkF]

True but I think the games are blacked out on the YES network unless you pay the extra $150 or whatever it is for the MLB package. And I believe the money for that package is split evenly amongst MLB teams.

There really isn't any way to gain revenue from another team's TV markets unless you also have a share of the market.
It is likely not feasible that MASN could make money in New York, but your description as to why is not accurate.

I live in New York. I have Time Warner cable service. Although it is called a network, YES is one channel on the service just like MASN is a channel (or two) on Comcast. Time Warner also carries the Mets games. They also carry the Barves games on Turner. It is theoretically possible for MASN to contract with Time Warner to be carried here. It just doesn't seem likely since the demand would be low and the cost high.

I do have the MLB ExtraInnings package through Time Warner. It does cost about $150 for the year and I get most but not all of the games. (Interestingly, Blue Jays games are not carried. They aren't blacked out, they are just not carried. Something to do with the fact that Rogers Cable owns the Jays.) This has nothing to do with YES except that Yankees games are blacked out on ExtraInnings. Mets games are blacked out too.

[Mackus]

So, could we get some advertisements in the park from Japanese companies?
Not if the games aren't on Japanese TV.

[RZNJ]

Do you mean the Orioles? Many others teams have a scouting presence in Asia, so its not as if the "MLB consensus" is based on the WBC. For example:



link (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/bbinternational.shtml)

Yes, I meant that I don't believe the O's have any scouting presence in Japan.

[mweb]

I am not sure about the casual fan. I think the casual fan would be more interested in seeing Zito, a guy they have heard of.

Not if he Matsuzaka actually pitched well. It would be more like Fernando Mania or Nomo Mania. It would be a big deal, much more so than Zito. Zito is good and all, but he's not the type that gets people that excited to go to the ballpark imo.

BTW, you keep saying the posting fee should be looked at differently, well lets look at it in a sense that PA has made many millions off the O's, he should invest some of that back into the team.

[weams]

And Zito could become the next Carl Pavano. Or Jaret Wright. Or have a first year like AJ Burnett.

Matsuzaka is no more risky than any American free agent pitcher.


But we wanted all of them...including Kaz ;) I remember woo Carl day at the yard with the multimedia presentation.

[Sports Guy]

Not if he Matsuzaka actually pitched well. It would be more like Fernando Mania or Nomo Mania. It would be a big deal, much more so than Zito. Zito is good and all, but he's not the type that gets people that excited to go to the ballpark imo.

BTW, you keep saying the posting fee should be looked at differently, well lets look at it in a sense that PA has made many millions off the O's, he should invest some of that back into the team.

That is fine as well except for the fact that, as a business man, i know he wouldn't look at it that way and really, i wouldn't either.

But, from a business point of view, i would look at it as advertising and marketing and to me, that is how it should be viewed.

If we paid 25 million for the posting fee and gave him a 4/36 contract, his salary is 9 million a year. It is not 15 million a year as so many people are looking at it.

And of course, what if he(gasp), actually a true #1 starter? What if he helps us(gasp!) to get into the playoffs? How about all that extra revenue we would generate?

[ejf1025]

WADR, the asian market size in this case doesn't matter. The Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans markets don't mix. Without turning this into a history lesson, there's a lot of bad blood between the cultures. Let's leave it at that.

Very, very good point Tony.

The key demographic is the Japanese market, not the Asian market.

It'd be like saying Americans, Canadians and Mexicans would become more interested in the Premiership if Arsenal were to sign Freddy Adu. And the Mexicans, Canadians and Americans living in London would flock to see Arsenal games.

Although, this example doesn't nearly carry the socio-political strife that you'd find between Japan, Korea and China.

[Baltimoron]

It is likely not feasible that MASN could make money in New York, but your description as to why is not accurate.

I live in New York. I have Time Warner cable service. Although it is called a network, YES is one channel on the service just like MASN is a channel (or two) on Comcast. Time Warner also carries the Mets games. They also carry the Barves games on Turner. It is theoretically possible for MASN to contract with Time Warner to be carried here. It just doesn't seem likely since the demand would be low and the cost high.

I do have the MLB ExtraInnings package through Time Warner. It does cost about $150 for the year and I get most but not all of the games. (Interestingly, Blue Jays games are not carried. They aren't blacked out, they are just not carried. Something to do with the fact that Rogers Cable owns the Jays.) This has nothing to do with YES except that Yankees games are blacked out on ExtraInnings. Mets games are blacked out too.

MASN is shown in many markets outside of Baltimore, as is NESN and YES. But the games (the big revenue earners) are blacked out outside of the team's region, unless one signs up for the ExtraInnings package.

[Baltimoron]

The key demographic is the Japanese market, not the Asian market.

WRT to signing Matsuzaka or any other big name Japanese player. But many other parts of Asia (especially Korea) are growing more interested in MLB in general as well. Its not right to lump all the markets together, but there is a lot more to it than just Japan.

[ejf1025]

WRT to signing Matsuzaka or any other big name Japanese player. But many other parts of Asia (especially Korea) are growing more interested in MLB in general as well. Its not right to lump all the markets together, but there is a lot more to it than just Japan.

Yes, but the idea of "asian markets" becoming more interested in the Orioles because of this signing is flawed.

Interest in baseball and interest in following one team based on a Japanese signing are completely different things.

I've advocated us signing Johjima, Kaz and others.

It just should be mentioned that if the Washington/Bmore area has a large Asian population but 85% are Koreans or Chinese do not expect them to come in droves to watch Matsuzaka. Now, interest may rise for various other reasons (novelty, curiosity) but you won't see the nationalist fervor that came with guys like Ichiro, Matsui, Irabu.

The point is you can't simply say we have the 8th largest Asian market in the US and assume that that will translate into increased attendence by signing an Asian player.

As I said, Americans are becoming more interested in the Premiership, but nobody is going to start following Tottenham because Paul Stalteri is there or Bolton when they had Jared Borgetti simply because they are fellow North Americans.

Caveat- I don't actually know how that demographic breaks down it could very well be heavily Japanese.

[DrungoHazewood]

As I said, Americans are becoming more interested in the Premiership, but nobody is going to start following Tottenham because Paul Stalteri is there or Bolton when they had Jared Borgetti simply because they are fellow North Americans.

Except that analogy is flawed. Borgetti and Stalteri are the equivalents of David Newhan and Howie Clark to the US. 80% of US soccer fans probably haven't heard of them. To an average guy on the street they're nothing.

Matsuzaka would be like if Tottenham had signed Landon Donovan, Kasey Keller, and Freddy Adu. If that happened you can bet a lot more Americans would watch the Spurs, even if soccer is the #4 team sport in the country.

But a Matsuzaka signing would be bigger. Much bigger. He's the best pitcher, and arguably the best player, in Japan, and baseball is the #1 sport in Japan. He's a household name over there. He's Pedro Martinez to a Japanese person.

[ejf1025]

Except that analogy is flawed. Borgetti and Stalteri are the equivalents of David Newhan and Howie Clark to the US. 80% of US soccer fans probably haven't heard of them. To an average guy on the street they're nothing.

Matsuzaka would be like if Tottenham had signed Landon Donovan, Kasey Keller, and Freddy Adu. If that happened you can bet a lot more Americans would watch the Spurs, even if soccer is the #4 team sport in the country.

But a Matsuzaka signing would be bigger. Much bigger. He's the best pitcher, and arguably the best player, in Japan, and baseball is the #1 sport in Japan. He's a household name over there. He's Pedro Martinez to a Japanese person.

Actually, you're kind of making my point.

Stalteri is probably the best Canadian soccer player and behind Rafa Marquez and Osvaldo Sanchez, Borgetti is probably the 3rd most popular player in Mexico. I'm sure Tottenham and Bolton saw support from these demographics after these signings.

Obviously, Americans wouldn't care about these two because they are not Americans. Just like Canadians and Mexicans wouldn't care about Donovan, Adu, Keller.

It's the same thing here, the Japanese population would certainly take an interst in the O's, but the Korean, Chinese populations would not.

I'm simply saying we need to be careful about how we use the data. People are using the area's "asian market" size as a way to say that you could really see an attendence boost and local fervor. But if that "asian market" is only 5-10% japanese, there really won't be that much noise locally. Internationally, particularly in television, yes the Japan market would be watching.

Basically, let's say, for the sake of argument, London has a large North American population with a break down of 60% Canadian, 30% Mexican and 10% American. And Tottenham decide that they want to take advantage of this and sell more local ticket sales by signing Freddy Adu. Well, the problem is that they've catered to the small 10% of the North American population. The remaining 90% are not going to come flocking because Freddy's from North America. Now, they may have very well helped themselves sell more tv revenue back in the States, but have done little to effect the Mexican/Canadian populations at home or abroad.

[DrungoHazewood]

One more thing on Matsuzaka - in Will Carroll's column today he mentions that Matuszaka normally pitches on six days rest. He throws more pitches than a typical American starter, but gets more rest in between.

I have no idea what to make of that, and it's at least a little worrisome since no US team is going to have him regularly get six days between starts.

[scOtt]

One more thing on Matsuzaka - in Will Carroll's column today he mentions that Matuszaka normally pitches on six days rest. He throws more pitches than a typical American starter, but gets more rest in between.

I have no idea what to make of that, and it's at least a little worrisome since no US team is going to have him regularly get six days between starts.
He would adjust, huh? Like the opposite of a 'pen pitcher moving into the rotation? Guy throws 30 pitches every other day adjusts to 100 every fifth day, why not from 150 every seventh day to 100 every fifth?

The O's pitchers have adjusted to throwing side sessions twice between starts, I'm assuming, with Leo on baord. I haven't read a word about it.