Adam Dunn on the Block?

[lofireve]

The growing sentiment out of Cincy is that Dunn must go. This frustration stems from 194 K this year and less than inspiring defense. Wayne Krivsky, the Reds GM, is on record as saying, “I don’t like strikeouts. I’d give up home runs for (fewer) strikeouts.” Combine this with the $10.5 million Dunn is owed next year and it becomes clear that Dunn could very well be moved this off-season.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061015/COL09/610150354/1071/SPT04

http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061014/SPT05/610140395/1035/SPT

Should the O’s be interested? Certainly. Although one can not ignore the Ks, Dunn still pounded 40 home runs and reached base at a .360 clip this year. The OBP dropped from .388 in ‘04 and .387 in ‘05. It is a fair bet, however, that with more protection and a change of scenery, Dunn will rebound to near a .380 OBP. He will only be 27 next season.

The plan would be to trade for Dunn and leave him in LF for 2007. His defense is of concern, but would be adequate. We put Gibbons at 1st and sign a legitimate DH (Thomas, Sheffield, Alou, or perhaps even Bonds). The rest of the off-season would consist of adding a FA pitcher (probably of the Meche variety) and improving the bullpen.

What would it take? Like almost every other team in the league, the Reds would want pitching. The Reds also desire an outfielder and a shortstop. A realistic swap could include Penn and either a bullpen arm (Hoey on the high end or Rheal) or a young OF (Fiorentino).

This plan of action is desirable for three reasons. First, Dunn is the legitimate power threat that our line-up lacks. Second, he is reasonably priced - $10.5 million next year, with a team option for $13 million in 2008. Dunn, however, may opt out of this option if he is traded. Finally, although he struggled last year, he is entering his prime years.

Of course, this proposal is not without risks. Dunn may opt out of this contract after next year if traded. He could be difficult to resign and may want to play in his native Texas. Ultimately, we could give up a pitcher with a bright future for a one-year rental.

Rarely, however, is there an acquisition without risks. As well, it is uncertain if we will be able to lure a top-flight free-agent, the likes of Soriano, Lee, or A.Ram. (if available), to Baltimore. Given this and given the need for positive action, Dunn may be the right choice.

[broberts]

Even though they want him gone in Cincy they still probably want someone good back in return. Our better bet is to go with Burrell, we would only have to give up Lopez and a C+ prospect.

[Baroquen131]

Even though they want him gone in Cincy they still probably want someone good back in return. Our better bet is to go with Burrell, we would only have to give up Lopez and a C+ prospect.

Or better yet, since Burrell has the no-trade clause, you explore both possibilities as neither one is solid, and the O's too often seem to lack back-up plans.

[PaulFolk]

The growing sentiment out of Cincy is that Dunn must go. This frustration stems from 194 K this year and less than inspiring defense. Wayne Krivsky, the Reds GM, is on record as saying, “I don’t like strikeouts. I’d give up home runs for (fewer) strikeouts.” Combine this with the $10.5 million Dunn is owed next year and it becomes clear that Dunn could very well be moved this off-season.
This seems like a monumentally foolish philosophy for a major-league GM to have. Am I wrong?

[Boston Dave]

The growing sentiment out of Cincy is that Dunn must go. This frustration stems from 194 K this year and less than inspiring defense. Wayne Krivsky, the Reds GM, is on record as saying, “I don’t like strikeouts. I’d give up home runs for (fewer) strikeouts.” Combine this with the $10.5 million Dunn is owed next year and it becomes clear that Dunn could very well be moved this off-season.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061015/COL09/610150354/1071/SPT04

http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061014/SPT05/610140395/1035/SPT

Should the O’s be interested? Certainly. Although one can not ignore the Ks, Dunn still pounded 40 home runs and reached base at a .360 clip this year. The OBP dropped from .388 in ‘04 and .387 in ‘05. It is a fair bet, however, that with more protection and a change of scenery, Dunn will rebound to near a .380 OBP. He will only be 27 next season.

The plan would be to trade for Dunn and leave him in LF for 2007. His defense is of concern, but would be adequate. We put Gibbons at 1st and sign a legitimate DH (Thomas, Sheffield, Alou, or perhaps even Bonds). The rest of the off-season would consist of adding a FA pitcher (probably of the Meche variety) and improving the bullpen.

What would it take? Like almost every other team in the league, the Reds would want pitching. The Reds also desire an outfielder and a shortstop. A realistic swap could include Penn and either a bullpen arm (Hoey on the high end or Rheal) or a young OF (Fiorentino).

This plan of action is desirable for three reasons. First, Dunn is the legitimate power threat that our line-up lacks. Second, he is reasonably priced - $10.5 million next year, with a team option for $13 million in 2008. Dunn, however, may opt out of this option if he is traded. Finally, although he struggled last year, he is entering his prime years.

Of course, this proposal is not without risks. Dunn may opt out of this contract after next year if traded. He could be difficult to resign and may want to play in his native Texas. Ultimately, we could give up a pitcher with a bright future for a one-year rental.

Rarely, however, is there an acquisition without risks. As well, it is uncertain if we will be able to lure a top-flight free-agent, the likes of Soriano, Lee, or A.Ram. (if available), to Baltimore. Given this and given the need for positive action, Dunn may be the right choice.

No way I give up Penn and Hoey for Dunn.

I used to live in the Cincy area. Have seen Dunn many times. I like him, personally. He is a butcher in the field, no way around it. He is the classic DH though, the ball just booms off his bat- when he hits it. I wonder if Crow could work his..magic? Still, Penn and Hoey way too much.

[Avsfan]

I bet you throw Benson in there with someone else, and talk up starting pitching...and they become very interested.

[Boston Dave]

This seems like a monumentally foolish philosophy for a major-league GM to have. Am I wrong?

Oh no, stat guy wars, round 3,799 ;)

I do not think he is wrong, in principle, if he is saying that for HIS current lineup he needs more situational hitting, working counts, etc. To say it the way he did, however, is demonstrably false.

[Ruzious]

The plan would be to trade for Dunn and leave him in LF for 2007. His defense is of concern, but would be adequate. We put Gibbons at 1st and sign a legitimate DH (Thomas, Sheffield, Alou, or perhaps even Bonds). The rest of the off-season would consist of adding a FA pitcher (probably of the Meche variety) and improving the bullpen.

Oof, playing Gibbons at 1st and Dunn in LF is not a good way to make pitchers want to come here. I think if you trade for Dunn (a good thing), you want to include Gibbons in the trade or at least have one of them playing DH. But yeah, I'm all for getting Dunn. There aren't many 26 year olds who have 198 career homeruns - much less a career OPS of .892.

[Sports Guy]

Of course you go after him but just be careful what you give up...His value is down and he is likely not to be here past 2008, when he becomes a FA. There will certainly be alot of interested for him though.

[JTrea81]

Of course you go after him but just be careful what you give up...His value is down and he is likely not to be here past 2008, when he becomes a FA. There will certainly be alot of interested for him though.

SG, you like three way deals. Could you see a viable three way with Cinci in which the O's get Tex and the Rangers get Dunn?

[RZNJ]

At the right price sure. He's a terrible LF and I don't care if the stats don't suport it. Not sure about 1B.

[Moose Milligan]

Oh no, stat guy wars, round 3,799 ;)


HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! :D

All I know is, if we get him, we'll hear a LOT of whining next year about how much he strikes out.

But...nevermind the fact that he strikes out 190 times a year! His OBP was .365 last year!!

And yes, when he strikes out in key situations with RISP in late and close games, I'll be reminding each and every one of the pro-Dunn people how great his OBP is and that many strikeouts mean nothing.

[Sports Guy]

SG, you like three way deals. Could you see a viable three way with Cinci in which the O's get Tex and the Rangers get Dunn?
Well Cinci obviously needs pitching, as does Texas.

I don't see this being viable to be honest...If Texas trades Tex, i gotta think they want pitching back, not another hitter.

[RZNJ]

Adam Dunn=Dave Kingman + patience

[DrungoHazewood]

And yes, when he strikes out in key situations with RISP in late and close games, I'll be reminding each and every one of the pro-Dunn people how great his OBP is and that many strikeouts mean nothing.

I know I sleep better at night after a GIDP with the bases loaded in the 9th. Strikeouts are just so embarassing they kill team chemistry.

[davearm]

Of course you go after him but just be careful what you give up...His value is down and he is likely not to be here past 2008, when he becomes a FA. There will certainly be alot of interested for him though.
He is not likely to stay in BAL past 2007, actually. A clause in his contract eliminates the team option for 2008 if he's traded.

He's not a real good fit for a team like the O's that's (IMO) more than one big bat away from serious contention in 2007.

[DrungoHazewood]

Adam Dunn=Dave Kingman + patience

If Dave Kingman had patience (and the sense to not mail female reporters dead rats) he'd be in the Hall.

[Moose Milligan]

Baseballreference.com has Adam Dunn's nickname as "Big Donkey."

I have suddenly jumped upon the Adam Dunn bandwagon. We need "Big Donkey."

[RZNJ]

He is not likely to stay in BAL past 2007, actually. A clause in his contract eliminates the team option for 2008 if he's traded.

He's not a real good fit for a team like the O's that's (IMO) more than one big bat away from serious contention in 2007.


I have to think that clause also lessens what teams will be willing to trade for him. One year makes a big difference, imo.

[Sports Guy]

He is not likely to stay in BAL past 2007, actually. A clause in his contract eliminates the team option for 2008 if he's traded.

He's not a real good fit for a team like the O's that's (IMO) more than one big bat away from serious contention in 2007.
Really? Where did you see that.

If true, i wouldn't touch him for anything more than Benson and a mid level prospect.

[Moose Milligan]

If Dave Kingman had patience (and the sense to not mail female reporters dead rats) he'd be in the Hall.

Hey Drungo, as an aside, I saw that Kingman hit 35 homers in his final season.

What's the record for most homers in a final season by a ML player?

[rolliefingers]

If Dave Kingman had patience (and the sense to not mail female reporters dead rats) he'd be in the Hall.Beat me to it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hey Drungo, as an aside, I saw that Kingman hit 35 homers in his final season.

What's the record for most homers in a final season by a ML player?

Pretty sure that's it. Most guys don't go out on their own terms - they stick around until they're not any good.

[JTrea81]

Really? Where did you see that.

If true, i wouldn't touch him for anything more than Benson and a mid level prospect.

It's right here:

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060213&content_id=1310834&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

After making $4.6 million in 2005, Dunn will make $7.5 million in 2006 and $10.5 million in 2007. His club option for 2008 can be bought out for $500,000. The option year will be voided if Dunn is traded at some point during the next two seasons, but he still will receive the $500,000 buyout payment. The first two seasons of the contract avoid a third year of arbitration eligibility and defer his first exploration into the free agent market for an extra season

I'd give up something better for him provided he would sign an extension...

[RustyMcNail]

Cincinnati can't wait to get rid of Dunn. This guy is the reincarnation of Dave "Kong" Kingman. He is also the perfect example of the fact that you can't rely totally on OPS as the complete measure of a baseball player.

* He is not only a bad defensive LF, he is horrendous. Only Manny Ramirez is worse. If he stays in Cincinnati, they'll probably put him at 1B. In reality, his only position is DH.

* He strikes out at an eyepopping rate - .343 in 2006.

* His BABIP is an anemic .278 - 11th from the bottom of the NL among regulars at any position.

* BA/RISP is .222 - only two players in the NL are worse than him.

* His offensive stats peaked three years ago and are steadily dropping.

I wouldnt even sign him as a free agent, considering the salary he would command, let alone trade a promising pitcher for him.

Cincinnati can keep him.

[El Gordo]

At the right price sure. He's a terrible LF and I don't care if the stats don't suport it. Not sure about 1B.
He's even worse at 1B. Strictly a DH IMO.

[BigSkip]

SG, you like three way deals. Could you see a viable three way with Cinci in which the O's get Tex and the Rangers get Dunn?

I think we have a new record! That's got to be the fewest posts we've gotten into a thread that has absolutely nothing to do with Mark Teixeira before he's somehow brought into the conversation.


Seriously though... I'd take Dunn. Sure, odds are he's splitting soon enough... But hey, worst case scenario is he doesn't wanna re-sign and we send him packing at a future trade deadline. He could have some mammoth years in the AL East...

[rosekeister]

Wayne Krivsky, the Reds GM, is on record as saying, “I don’t like strikeouts. I’d give up home runs for (fewer) strikeouts.” :eek:

This seems like a monumentally foolish philosophy for a major-league GM to have. Am I wrong?

No, that philosophy is so foolish that I have to think it was taken out of context in someway or that Krivsky has a substance abuse issue during which he says things he doesn't really mean.

[elextrano8]

Get Dunn. Please please please please get Dunn. Also, if we do get Dunn, I propose that anyone who says "Git R Dunn" should be summarily executed on the flag court.

[El Gordo]

Get Dunn. Please please please please get Dunn. Also, if we do get Dunn, I propose that anyone who says "Git R Dunn" should be summarily executed on the flag court.
Get Dunn,dunn? :D

[rosekeister]

Also, if we do get Dunn, I propose that anyone who says "Git R Dunn" should be summarily executed on the flag court.

I can't believe I haven't already posted "Git R Dunn." Now I won't be able to get it out of my head today. No to a deal on Dunn for that very reason.

[JTrea81]

I think we have a new record! That's got to be the fewest posts we've gotten into a thread that has absolutely nothing to do with Mark Teixeira before he's somehow brought into the conversation.

The reason I brought this up is it sort of makes sense. Dunn wants to return to Texas and the O's want Tex back in Maryland. Cinci would get pitching from the Orioles who would turn around and trade Dunn and pitching to the Rangers for Tex provided that Dunn and Tex sign an extension. If you think about it Dunn should be cheaper than Tex in the long run and provides the power bat that the Rangers would lose by trading Tex. He has a better OBP and has more power than Tex. We'd give up pitching in the deal but probably wouldn't have to give up as much to get Dunn nor give up as much if we included Dunn in a Tex trade.

[rosekeister]

Cinci would get pitching from the Orioles who would turn around and trade Dunn and pitching to the Rangers for Tex provided that Dunn and Tex sign an extension.

I just don't think the Orioles have enough established pitching to be trading them. Both the O's starters and the bullpen had ERAs over 5.00. If Cabrera doesn't have a breakout season and Loewen and Penn don't show continued improvement it could be just as bad in 2007. All the hitting in the world won't help if the team ERA remains above 5.00.

Of course with better hitting there would be more entertaining losses which may be the point of getting some more. I remember 2 games where the Orioles gave up over 10 runs but the team made stirring comebacks only to lose by scores like 12-10.

[AlBumbry]

I know I sleep better at night after a GIDP with the bases loaded in the 9th. Strikeouts are just so embarassing they kill team chemistry.
The same way you sleep better when your team leaves a man on third with less than 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth? Getting that man in from third does so much for team chemistry . . .

[weams]

The same way you sleep better when your team leaves a man on third with less than 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth? Getting that man in from third does so much for team chemistry . . .

I just had to reply because of my sig :)

[mikezpen]

I wouldn't want this guy if I was in the National League. You think he'll get all those nice fastballs to hit homers off of in the American?

[Mark J]

If I'm the Reds GM, the minimum I'd take from the O's for Dunn (& would start off asking for more) would be Daniel Cabrera - someone like Dunn with great talent but still some flaws. You have to think they'll want a Major League ready, relatively young SP.

Would you do that deal?

[CanadianOriole]

If I'm the Reds GM, the minimum I'd take from the O's for Dunn (& would start off asking for more) would be Daniel Cabrera - someone like Dunn with great talent but still some flaws. You have to think they'll want a Major League ready, relatively young SP.

Would you do that deal?

You have to keep in mind that this same Reds GM traded not one, but two of his more promising young position players for two middle relievers in the midst of their playoff drive this year effectively killing the Reds season. If he's unhappy with Dunn and I'm the Orioles GM I start calling him now offering stuff like Benson for Dunn straight up and I wouldn't be slightly surprised if they took it.

[El Gordo]

If I'm the Reds GM, the minimum I'd take from the O's for Dunn (& would start off asking for more) would be Daniel Cabrera - someone like Dunn with great talent but still some flaws. You have to think they'll want a Major League ready, relatively young SP.

Would you do that deal?
DCab came within a hair of no-noing the MFY's . I have no doubt (and Leo will back me up on this) that he will pitch at least one at sometime during his career. A no hitter is comparable to hitting for the cycle something Dunn will never do in his entire career. The best I'd do for Dunn is Penn and Hoey/Rleal.

[Mark J]

You have to keep in mind that this same Reds GM traded not one, but two of his more promising young position players for two middle relievers in the midst of their playoff drive this year effectively killing the Reds season. If he's unhappy with Dunn and I'm the Orioles GM I start calling him now offering stuff like Benson for Dunn straight up and I wouldn't be slightly surprised if they took it.

You're right, I wondered that too about his midseason trade. It's also possible it was just mid-season pressure to get relievers & that he would act differently in the offseason once he has more time / more teams to deal with. It'll be interesting to see it play out.

[Baltimoron]

He's even worse at 1B. Strictly a DH IMO.

You should of course keep your friends but look to more informed sources for baseball opinions.

[Mark J]

DCab came within a hair of no-noing the MFY's . I have no doubt (and Leo will back me up on this) that he will pitch at least one at sometime during his career. A no hitter is comparable to hitting for the cycle something Dunn will never do in his entire career. The best I'd do for Dunn is Penn and Hoey/Rleal.

Cabrera has more upside but Dunn has more of a track record. Cabrera can pitch great games that probably no one else in the majors can match. But he can just as easily throw up multiple duds. It's a question of if you can live with not knowing for sure which he'll give you. So far his track record indicates he'll give you about 1/2 of each.

You know Dunn can take walks, give you a high OBP & hit 30-40 homers a year which are both very desirable traits in a hitter but he'll strike out a great deal in the process & his batting average is below average.

It's not a complete apples to apples comparison but both of their benefits are weighted down by their negatives.

[RZNJ]

You should of course keep your friends but look to more informed sources for baseball opinions.

I know this comment wasn't directed at me but I found it curious. What does it mean?

[RZNJ]

DCab came within a hair of no-noing the MFY's . I have no doubt (and Leo will back me up on this) that he will pitch at least one at sometime during his career. A no hitter is comparable to hitting for the cycle something Dunn will never do in his entire career. The best I'd do for Dunn is Penn and Hoey/Rleal.


Penn & Hoey for a one year rental of Adam Dunn? Pass.

[rolliefingers]

DCab came within a hair of no-noing the MFY's . I have no doubt (and Leo will back me up on this) that he will pitch at least one at sometime during his career. A no hitter is comparable to hitting for the cycle something Dunn will never do in his entire career. The best I'd do for Dunn is Penn and Hoey/Rleal.Is this really your argument as to why DCab is more valuable than Dunn?

Dunn has never lined into a triple play in his career, whereas DCab has never INDUCED one. Ergo, Dunn > Cabrera. :confused: **





** I made that up.

[El Gordo]

You should of course keep your friends but look to more informed sources for baseball opinions.
informed sources before you question my friends judgement. What stats can you show me that indicate Dunn is a better fielder at 1B than LF?

[DrungoHazewood]

I wouldn't want this guy if I was in the National League. You think he'll get all those nice fastballs to hit homers off of in the American?

It's not 1970 any more, and the strategic and stylistic differences in pitching between leagues are negligible.

[Mackus]

A no hitter is comparable to hitting for the cycle .
It most certainly is not.

Just because they happen at about roughly the same rate doesn't mean that it takes roughly the same amount of skill. 99% of all major league hitters can hit for a cycle, it just takes a lot of coincidence/luck to get all 4 types of hits in the same game. Throwing a no-hitter is completely different, and about a million times more difficult to do. While there sometime is luck involved in a no-hitter, such as a close error call, or a good defensive play, it takes a lot more skill to achieve than hitting for the cycle does.

[Mark J]

Has anyone ever heard this story before? Is this true?

http://www.sirbacon.org/4membersonly/docellis.htm

Los Angeles, April 8, 1984- Former Pittsburgh Pirates' pitcher Dock Ellis says he was under the influence of LSD when he pitched a 1970 no-hitter against the San Diego Padres.

(more follows in the link)

[RZNJ]

It most certainly is not.

Just because they happen at about roughly the same rate doesn't mean that it takes roughly the same amount of skill. 99% of all major league hitters can hit for a cycle, it just takes a lot of coincidence/luck to get all 4 types of hits in the same game. Throwing a no-hitter is completely different, and about a million times more difficult to do. While there sometime is luck involved in a no-hitter, such as a close error call, or a good defensive play, it takes a lot more skill to achieve than hitting for the cycle does.

Are you sure? I bet I could dig up some pretty mediocre pitchers who have thrown no-hitters.

[Mark J]

Are you sure? I bet I could dig up some pretty mediocre pitchers who have thrown no-hitters.

You're right. There have been several pitchers who have thrown no-hitters but haven't done much else over their career. While a no-hitter is a nice achievement, it's not automatically a predictor of consistent or long term success.

[DrungoHazewood]

Has anyone ever heard this story before? Is this true?

http://www.sirbacon.org/4membersonly/docellis.htm

Los Angeles, April 8, 1984- Former Pittsburgh Pirates' pitcher Dock Ellis says he was under the influence of LSD when he pitched a 1970 no-hitter against the San Diego Padres.

(more follows in the link)

Yea, that's pretty well known.

I think a no hitter and a cycle are of similar difficulty. Similar levels of skill required. Lots of luck necessary in each case. Park geometry and effects have a big impact on each (part of the reason the O's only have two cycles, neither at home - Memorial and OPACY were both poor 2b/3b parks). And fairly equal numbers of good and bad players have done each thing.

[Mark J]

Non-immortals who've thrown no-hitters

July 26, 1991 (10 innings) - Mark Gardner (9 inn.) and Jeff Fassero (0 inn.)
April 8, 1994 - Kent Mercker
July 12, 1997 (10 innings) - Francisco Cordova (9 inn.) and Ricardo Rincon (1 inn.)
June 25, 1999 - Jose Jimenez,
September 3, 2001 - Bud Smith

[DrungoHazewood]

Non-immortals who've thrown no-hitters

July 26, 1991 (10 innings) - Mark Gardner (9 inn.) and Jeff Fassero (0 inn.)
April 8, 1994 - Kent Mercker
July 12, 1997 (10 innings) - Francisco Cordova (9 inn.) and Ricardo Rincon (1 inn.)
June 25, 1999 - Jose Jimenez,
September 3, 2001 - Bud Smith

The list is a lot longer than that. Bumpus Jones (http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesbu01.shtml) probably takes the cake. Seven career starts, in six of them his ERA was 10.19, the other (his first ML start) was a no-no.

[TyCobb]

Would this be possible?
Trade Benson and Penn for Dunn
Trade Lopez and C+ prospect for Burrell or sign Luis Gonzo
Sign Jason Schmidt and Gil Meche
Sign RP

Roberts 2b
Markakis RF
Dunn DH
Tejada SS
Burrell LF
Gibbons 1st
Mora 3rd
Herendez C
Patterson CF

Schmidt, Bedard, Cabrera, Loewen, Meche

[KstateBird]

No, that philosophy is so foolish that I have to think it was taken out of context in someway or that Krivsky has a substance abuse issue during which he says things he doesn't really mean.

My guess is that Krivsky meant that in terms of degrees, i.e. he'd rather Dunn only hit 30 HRs and strike out only 100 times than hit 40 and strikeout 200.

[MP]

I know I sleep better at night after a GIDP with the bases loaded in the 9th. Strikeouts are just so embarassing they kill team chemistry.

Drungo / Baltimoron / 1970 / etc.. Adam Dunn always brings it out, so why not dive in!

Could someone please give me a good explanation for why high strikeouts are something you want out of a pitcher? Just in general - why is that something that helps teams win games?

[Mackus]

Are you sure? I bet I could dig up some pretty mediocre pitchers who have thrown no-hitters.
Mediocre over their careers, but I'm sure they were pretty impressive that night.

I've always felt that a no-hitter is a lot more impressive than a cycle. I mean, theres only one thing more impressive in pitching than a no-hitter, which is a perfect game. For a hitter, a cycle isn't the most impressive thing they can do. I think its much more difficult to go 3-4 with 3 HR than it is to go 4-4 with a 2B, 3B, and HR.

I know they happen at about the same frequency, and that both require a lot of luck, but a cycle always seems more like coincidence than skill. Most major league hitters have the ability to hit a HR, to hit a 3B, to hit a 2B, to hit a 1B, and to get 4 hits in a game. The trick is doing them all at once, which is just a matter of chance, IMO. Not every major league pitcher has the ability to even pitch 9 full innings, yets alone do it without giving up any runs, or even better without giving up any hits.

Both are generally just a guy finding the zone for one night, and not a real indication of their overall ability, but a no-hitter is just so much more impressive to me in terms of difficulty and having it actually be related to performance.

[Mark Carver]

Drungo / Baltimoron / 1970 / etc.. Adam Dunn always brings it out, so why not dive in!

Could someone please give me a good explanation for why high strikeouts are something you want out of a pitcher? Just in general - why is that something that helps teams win games?

Well, I would guess anytime that a ball is not batted into the field of play, increases your teams chances of winning. I'd rather see 27 strikeouts than 27 outs made in the field of play.

[MTOsFan]

The list is a lot longer than that. Bumpus Jones (http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesbu01.shtml) probably takes the cake. Seven career starts, in six of them his ERA was 10.19, the other (his first ML start) was a no-no.
I now have a new favorite "Goofy sounding baseball name".

No offense Drungo.;)

[DrungoHazewood]

Drungo / Baltimoron / 1970 / etc.. Adam Dunn always brings it out, so why not dive in!

Could someone please give me a good explanation for why high strikeouts are something you want out of a pitcher? Just in general - why is that something that helps teams win games?

Because a strikeout is almost always an out. Put the ball in play and it's only an out ~70% of the time. The more strikeouts a pitcher has, the less he has to rely on his defense. The more balls put in play, the more hits he gives up.

And if you want to open the DIPS can of worms, pitchers have relatively little influence on the outcome of balls in play. So strikeouts are the single biggest influence on a pitcher's batting average against.

Batters, on the other hand, have a much greater control on balls in play (some guys hit the ball harder and in better spots than others) so it's possible to hit for a high average and consistently produce runs despite striking out a lot.

[rosekeister]

Could someone please give me a good explanation for why high strikeouts are something you want out of a pitcher? Just in general - why is that something that helps teams win games?

Just offhand I'd say high strikeout totals often reflect a hard throwing pitcher whose fast ball has natural movement that makes him hard to hit. Gamewise when a pitcher is in trouble, especially with a runner on third with less than two outs, it sure is nice when the pitcher strikes out the batter not even allowing the ball to be put into play where who knows what may happen i.e. hits, seeing eye grounders, soft flares into no man's land, errors etc.

[RZNJ]

Because a strikeout is almost always an out. Put the ball in play and it's only an out ~70% of the time. The more strikeouts a pitcher has, the less he has to rely on his defense. The more balls put in play, the more hits he gives up.

And if you want to open the DIPS can of worms, pitchers have relatively little influence on the outcome of balls in play. So strikeouts are the single biggest influence on a pitcher's batting average against.

Batters, on the other hand, have a much greater control on balls in play (some guys hit the ball harder and in better spots than others) so it's possible to hit for a high average and consistently produce runs despite striking out a lot.

Is Dunn an example of a batter who hit's for a high average and consistently produces runs?

Question: A pitcher has a lot of control on whether he strikes a hitter out, no? Yet he has little control on how hard a hitter hit's the ball? That doesn't seem to jive to me.

[PA Bird Fan]

If Dunn's nickname is "The Big Donkey" and we're comparing him to Dave "Kong" Kingman I'm thinking perhaps a new nickname for him could be ..."Donkey Kong".

(Forgive me for adding nothing of substance to the conversation. I'm a hopeless punster. I'll go back to lurking now).

[mason]

we are in dire need of a power bat...the big free agents will probaly not come here, so we have to look into trades. of all the rumored trades we've heard, i'd take burrell and ensberg over dunn. obviously teixeira would be the ideal one, but i've decided that was a pipe dream. i've heard rumblings about richie sexson. i'd be very interested in looking into that. dunn for a year is not worth what we'd have to give up for him

[Ralph]

2b- Roberts
RF- Markakis
SS- Tejada
DH- Dunn
LF- Wilson
1b- Gibbons
C- Hernandez
CF- Patterson
3b- Mora

Bedard
Cabrera
Benson
Loewen
Eaton

Trade Rodrigo Lopez & Hayden Penn for Adam Dunn.

Sign Adam Eaton 1/5

Sign a couple of reliable arms to add to the pen.

How does that sound?

[BigSkip]

2b- Roberts
RF- Markakis
SS- Tejada
DH- Dunn
LF- Wilson
1b- Gibbons
C- Hernandez
CF- Patterson
3b- Mora

Bedard
Cabrera
Benson
Loewen
Eaton

Trade Rodrigo Lopez & Hayden Penn for Adam Dunn.

Sign Adam Eaton 1/5

Sign a couple of reliable arms to add to the pen.

How does that sound?

We'd either...

A. Need a bit more thunder in the order,

or

B. Need everything to break right for the pitching staff

[birdzgirl76]

2b- Roberts
RF- Markakis
SS- Tejada
DH- Dunn
LF- Wilson
1b- Gibbons
C- Hernandez
CF- Patterson
3b- Mora

Bedard
Cabrera
Benson
Loewen
Eaton

Trade Rodrigo Lopez & Hayden Penn for Adam Dunn.

Sign Adam Eaton 1/5

Sign a couple of reliable arms to add to the pen.

How does that sound?

Is that Preston or Craig in LF? I hope the latter...

Also, I think it's unlikely the Rangers don't re-sign Eaton considering what they gave up for him this past off-season, though I could be wrong.

[NoVaO]

Is Dunn an example of a batter who hit's for a high average and consistently produces runs?

Question: A pitcher has a lot of control on whether he strikes a hitter out, no? Yet he has little control on how hard a hitter hit's the ball? That doesn't seem to jive to me.

I agree with you. A few studies done have kinda concluded that pitchers have little control over batted balls, but I find it extremely hard to believe.

If pitchers have so little control on batted balls, then that assumes every pitcher has the same talent and the only thing that seperates them is walks and strikeouts, which is hardly the case.

It is true that a pitcher can control the number FBs and GBs they give up, but the feeling is that they can't control the amount of LD's. So if you see a pitcher with a 12% LD rate, you expect they are getting lucky and for the line drives to go up and then hit total to come up. And usually this is true.

If a pitcher has an unusually high BABIP, it is assumed they are getting unlucky and that is usually the case. The same goes for a pitcher who has an unusually low BABIP...it is assumed they are lucky. This is also usually true.

But usually you'll see a trend that the best pitchers in the game consistently hold hitters under the normal BABIP limit and if they don't, the BABIP given up usually never goes much over the average. Also, while the number of LD's vary, many of the best pitchers limit the number of line drives they give up. It also goes into the velocity of the ball that is hit. I am pretty sure they have a decent amount of control over how hard the ball is it. Weaker pitchers will probably tend to give up line drives that are hit harder, grounders that are hit harder, and fly balls that travel farther. Of course, the best pitchers usually have the good K rate.

Still, it is best if a pitcher has a high K rate because if not, there is much more variability in the BABIP and LD's on a year to year basis (see Kenny Rogers). And your stuff probably just isn't as good if you are not a high K pitcher.

[bernie132000]

I agree with you. A few studies done have kinda concluded that pitchers have little control over batted balls, but I find it extremely hard to believe.

If pitchers have so little control on batted balls, then that assumes every pitcher has the same talent and the only thing that seperates them is walks and strikeouts, which is hardly the case.

It is true that a pitcher can control the number FBs and GBs they give up, but the feeling is that they can't control the amount of LD's. So if you see a pitcher with a 12% LD rate, you expect they are getting lucky and for the line drives to go up and then hit total to come up. And usually this is true.

If a pitcher has an unusually high BABIP, it is assumed they are getting unlucky and that is usually the case. The same goes for a pitcher who has an unusually low BABIP...it is assumed they are lucky. This is also usually true.

But usually you'll see a trend that the best pitchers in the game consistently hold hitters under the normal BABIP limit and if they don't, the BABIP given up usually never goes much over the average. Also, while the number of LD's vary, many of the best pitchers limit the number of line drives they give up. It also goes into the velocity of the ball that is hit. I am pretty sure they have a decent amount of control over how hard the ball is it. Weaker pitchers will probably tend to give up line drives that are hit harder, grounders that are hit harder, and fly balls that travel farther. Of course, the best pitchers usually have the good K rate.

Still, it is best if a pitcher has a high K rate because if not, there is much more variability in the BABIP and LD's on a year to year basis (see Kenny Rogers). And your stuff probably just isn't as good if you are not a high K pitcher.

I keep meaning to ask Drungo this, but how does Sabermetrics explain Wang's season.

[SilentJames]

I keep meaning to ask Drungo this, but how does Sabermetrics explain Wang's season.

The sabermatrician's head explodes....thats how.

[El Gordo]

I keep meaning to ask Drungo this, but how does Sabermetrics explain Wang's season.
Is a statistical anomaly.:D

[Whatever0]

I keep meaning to ask Drungo this, but how does Sabermetrics explain Wang's season.

That's easy: pitchers have very strong control over three things: Ks, BBs, and GB% (which indirectly determines the HR rate). Wang was outstanding at two of those three things: his DIPS was a very respectable 4.04, 30th in all of baseball. Combine that with a little luck, and you have a very good season. If Wang doesn't start to strike out more batters, he's more likely to be a 4.00 ERA guy than a 3.5 one: but he's still an excellent young pitcher either way.

[NoVaO]

I keep meaning to ask Drungo this, but how does Sabermetrics explain Wang's season.

Yup, he is the exception to the rule. I mean his K rate is so low that you wouldn't even think he would be a sucessful MLB pitcher. Whatever explained it well...he is an extreme GB pitcher, but it goes a bit further in that he induces a lot of weak ground balls, and so far he has limited the number of line drives against him:

2005 - 14%
2006 - 16%

At least so far, he seems to have the ability to limit contact, but my feeling is that this is the best year he could possibly have. He'll still be a good pitcher, but I also see him having an ERA around 4.2 next year.

[Fan4Life]

Is a statistical anomaly.:D

Because he is the remainder of an unbalanced equation.. He... is the ONE.

[bryanman8]

Cincinnati can't wait to get rid of Dunn. This guy is the reincarnation of Dave "Kong" Kingman.
Completely and utterly wrong. Would people stop saying this please whenever you have a power hitter that strikes out too?

OPS comparison by age:
22: Dunn- .854 in 676 PA's, Kingman- .885 in only 128 PA's (Dunn also OPSed .949 in 286 PA's at 21)
23: Dunn- .819, Kingman- .765
24: Dunn- .957, Kingman- .779
25: Dunn- .927, Kingman- .742
26: Dunn- .855, Kingman- .778

Kingman finished with a .780 OPS after his prime and whole career. Dunn has an .893 OPS for his career pre-prime.

He is also the perfect example of the fact that you can't rely totally on OPS as the complete measure of a baseball player.
Who's suggesting you rely totally on OPS? That's a good measure of offense, although you also have to consider peripheral numbers to make sure the 'naked' stats aren't deceiving you and baserunning on the offensive side, as well as defense entirely. No stat-guy would say OPS tells you everything you need to know about the whole player.


* He is not only a bad defensive LF, he is horrendous. Only Manny Ramirez is worse. If he stays in Cincinnati, they'll probably put him at 1B. In reality, his only position is DH.
Ok. So what? Last I checked we need a 1B/DH. This is a guy who will be 27 next year and has the potential to OPS 1.000 for the rest of his career. I'll take him at 1B/DH if need be, but I don't believe his defense is that deadly in LF.


* He strikes out at an eyepopping rate - .343 in 2006.
And strikeouts don't matter.


* His BABIP is an anemic .278 - 11th from the bottom of the NL among regulars at any position.
If anything, this shows that he will get much better next year, just like Nick Swisher last year. He got unlucky on a lot of balls he put in play. He should have a much higher BABIP next year and thus have much better overall numbers.


* BA/RISP is .222 - only two players in the NL are worse than him.
Clutch also really doesn't exist, and if this is just from last year only, it's waaaay to small of a sample size.


* His offensive stats peaked three years ago and are steadily dropping.
Hardly. He had one off year this year which appears to really just be unlucky. In this park, he'd kill the ball with his homer/walk game.

[skipshot26]

I have to believe that if the O's could trade for Dunn, sign Soriano and trade for a young 1B the offense is playoff caliber.

Brob - 2B
Markakis - RF
Dunn - DH
Tejada - SS
Soriano - LF
Mora - 3B
Hernandez - C
young 1B (see previous threads for the best one)
Patterson - CF

The next issue to consider is obviously pitching. ;)

[DrungoHazewood]

I keep meaning to ask Drungo this, but how does Sabermetrics explain Wang's season.

He's a unique, extreme ground ball pitcher, as several others have mentioned. Meaning he's very much at the whims of his infield defense. If he doesn't increase his K rate I'd bet he is quite inconsistent year to year.

But he's so far out of the edge of the data it's hard to tell what's going to happen. Cy Young caliber pitchers with K Rates of 3.0 per nine are about as common as albino flying anteaters.

[Whatever0]

I'll take him at 1B/DH if need be, but I don't believe his defense is that deadly in LF.

Well, the defensive metrics disagree with you here. BP rates him 4 runs below replacement as a LF: that's just horrific. BP's defensive statistics aren't always very accurate, but it's pretty obivous Dunn is a butcher in LF. He's obviously an excellent option at 1B or DH, but playing him in LF mkaes him far less valuable.

[Flosman]

Well, the defensive metrics disagree with you here. BP rates him 4 runs below replacement as a LF: that's just horrific. BP's defensive statistics aren't always very accurate, but it's pretty obivous Dunn is a butcher in LF. He's obviously an excellent option at 1B or DH, but playing him in LF mkaes him far less valuable.

He is bad in the field. the kind of fielder that the best thing you can say about his fielding is that he can hit.

[goodburger34]

He is bad in the field. the kind of fielder that the best thing you can say about his fielding is that he can hit.

He can't hit that's the problem. Dunn is a meathead with a good eye, but when he makes contact with the ball it goes. Still I would still love to have him on the orioles.

[RZNJ]

I saw Itallion Stallion bring up the point that anyone batting in the 4th spot should bat in at least 100 runs over a full season, in a discussion about Magglio Ordonez. That got me to thinking about Dunn. Isn't the following an indictment of Dunn as a middle of the order hitter.

From 2003-2005 Dunn had 98 RBI in 621 AB's which is well over one full season for someone who walks as much as he does. Last year he had 24 RBI in 169 AB's in the 4th spot. That doesn't project to anything close to 100 RBI.

[Mackus]

I saw Itallion Stallion bring up the point that anyone batting in the 4th spot should bat in at least 100 runs over a full season, in a discussion about Magglio Ordonez. That got me to thinking about Dunn. Isn't the following an indictment of Dunn as a middle of the order hitter.

From 2003-2005 Dunn had 98 RBI in 621 AB's which is well over one full season for someone who walks as much as he does. Last year he had 24 RBI in 169 AB's in the 4th spot. That doesn't project to anything close to 100 RBI.
RBI and runs scored, as you know, are much more dependant on a guy's teamates than his own production.

Dunn will get fewer RBI than other middle of the order hitters because of his low batting average and high walk rate. Most RBI are on hits, and Dunn just doesn't get a whole lot of them. That doesn't mean that his presence doesn't lead to more runs for the team, he certainly does, but its not him driving them in. The bottom line is the key to scoring a lot of runs isn't getting lots of hits or homeruns, but avoiding as many outs as possible. His OBP will show you that he's great at doing that. The fact that he also hits 35-40 HR a year is just icing on the cake.

I'm thinking the if we landed Dunn, that we should bat Tejada behind him. Dunn will get on base a whole lot, and then Tejada can get him over or in with all of the hits that he provides.

[DrungoHazewood]

RBI and runs scored, as you know, are much more dependant on a guy's teamates than his own production.

Dunn will get fewer RBI than other middle of the order hitters because of his low batting average and high walk rate. Most RBI are on hits, and Dunn just doesn't get a whole lot of them. That doesn't mean that his presence doesn't lead to more runs for the team, he certainly does, but its not him driving them in. The bottom line is the key to scoring a lot of runs isn't getting lots of hits or homeruns, but avoiding as many outs as possible. His OBP will show you that he's great at doing that. The fact that he also hits 35-40 HR a year is just icing on the cake.

I'm thinking the if we landed Dunn, that we should bat Tejada behind him. Dunn will get on base a whole lot, and then Tejada can get him over or in with all of the hits that he provides.

If I had Dunn I'd think about batting him second.

[Mark Carver]

I saw Itallion Stallion bring up the point that anyone batting in the 4th spot should bat in at least 100 runs over a full season, in a discussion about Magglio Ordonez. That got me to thinking about Dunn. Isn't the following an indictment of Dunn as a middle of the order hitter.

From 2003-2005 Dunn had 98 RBI in 621 AB's which is well over one full season for someone who walks as much as he does. Last year he had 24 RBI in 169 AB's in the 4th spot. That doesn't project to anything close to 100 RBI.

In 2003, Tony Batista with the Orioles, hit 227/243/463/706, drove in 46 RBIs, all while batting 4th in 242 ABs.

[RZNJ]

In 2003, Tony Batista with the Orioles, hit 227/243/463/706, drove in 46 RBIs, all while batting 4th in 242 ABs.


I'm a little slow. Can you explain your point?

[MP]

Drungo thanks for responding back there about pitchers and strikeouts. Sorry for the delay in my response, I haven't been around much lately.

I guess to me it's always seemed contradictory, that the same people who plainly type "strikeouts don't matter" will turn around and seek high strikeout pitchers. If you applied this to football, it's like saying you prefer a defense that generates a lot of fumbles but then when analyzing running backs you say "Oh fumbles don't matter." Well just like the strikeouts, which is it? It can't work both ways. If some element of a game helps a given team win, then it hurts the opponent. I just can't get around that.

But specifically about Adam Dunn, I would have responded like this:

Is Dunn an example of a batter who hit's for a high average and consistently produces runs?

The guy batted about .230 this year and struckout 190+ times. Is there no limit to where even the stat guys start to say "Hmmmm....maybe he's not so good...". I mean how low does AVG need to go before it'll be important enough to cite? What if he batted .200 but still hit 40 homers and walked a lot. Still good for a team? How about .180?

[mikezpen]

I cannot see this guy, at least not making him a central part of your batting order.

He strikes out way too much, his BA w/MOB is terrible, he can't hit lefties for the most part.I keep hearing this OPS and OBA stuff, but most of it's walks and not good hitting.

3-year stats 2003-2005 2006 in parenthesis
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6763&type=batting3

against LH pitching .241 (.270-but only .215 vs, righties now:D )

RISP -.236 (.221)

runners on .243 (.217 !!!!)

runner on third, less than 2 out .195 (.150)

He's a poor hitter in the power spots in the order (and even worse this year)

He's fanned a third of the time over his career, This year it was almost 40% (and people knock Cory Patterson?)

Bases loaded .231 (.273 this year-whoopee)

In .2005, I compared his to the abysmal situational numbers Sosa put up. For the most part, Sosa's were better. Maybe I'd give them Benson for him; that's about it. Bat him 6th or 7th. This guy isn't the answer.

[DrungoHazewood]

But specifically about Adam Dunn, I would have responded like this:

The guy batted about .230 this year and struckout 190+ times. Is there no limit to where even the stat guys start to say "Hmmmm....maybe he's not so good...". I mean how low does AVG need to go before it'll be important enough to cite? What if he batted .200 but still hit 40 homers and walked a lot. Still good for a team? How about .180?

He still made outs less often than all but 23 NL players (who qualified for the batting title). That's valuable. Yes, a bit less valuable than someone who never struck out but posted otherwise identical stats. Yes, a bit less valuable than someone who got on base 36% of the time but hit for a higher average.

But he's a valuable player nonetheless, far more valuable than the junk the O's have been throwing out at DH, LF, and 1B for years.

Find me a DH/1B who hits 40 homers, gets on base 36% of the time, makes contact more often than Dunn, hits for a higher average than Dunn, and can be acquired for a similar price, and then I'll say we don't want him.

[bryanman8]

Find me a DH/1B who hits 40 homers, gets on base 36% of the time, makes contact more often than Dunn, hits for a higher average than Dunn, and can be acquired for a similar price, and then I'll say we don't want him.
And is only 26 years old. ;)
I don't think they're going to find many. Just a hunch, though.

[MP]

But he's a valuable player nonetheless, far more valuable than the junk the O's have been throwing out at DH, LF, and 1B for years.

Can't disagree with that. And we could certainly do worse than a 40 homer guy.

I'll just go on record and say that IMO if we actually acquired Dunn and watched him play every day, it would be generally dissapointing to many people who were pretty excited about him on a statistical level. He's one of those guys where it's fun to look at his season end stats and percentages, but on a daily basis he's more frustrating than anything else.

I'd sure as heck take him over Fahey though...

[mikezpen]

So Dunn's better than what we have now. That's not much to recommend him.

[bryanman8]

I cannot see this guy, at least not making him a central part of your batting order.

He strikes out way too much, his BA w/MOB is terrible, he can't hit lefties for the most part.I keep hearing this OPS and OBA stuff, but most of it's walks and not good hitting.
Maybe we should get Placido Polanco?

.295 BA
Higher OPS vs. LHP than RHP.
Hitting .323 with runners on.
Only 27 K's in 461 AB's.
Hitting .519 with runners on third and less than 2 outs.

Is that "good hitting" to you?

You need to prioritize. No one is claiming Adam Dunn is flawless.

What we are claiming is that:

-He would likely to get on base at at least a 38% rate here. Despite the low BA, he's OBP'ed .388, .387, .365 the last three years. I personally think he'd consistently do over .400 here.

-Despite hitting for a low average, he makes it count when he puts it in play. The last three years he has: 46, 40, and 40 homers, 34, 35, and and 24 doubles, and 2 triples in the middle year, respectively. That's tons of firepower for a guy not at his prime yet.

-Striking out is not great, but statistical evidence has shown it is hardly worse than any other out. Sure, Dunn struck out the most in the league this year with 194 K's, but do you know who was a close 2nd with 181? Ryan Howard. 5th was Alfonso Soriano. 11th Jim Thome. Most of the best hitters strike out tons. And it hardly hurts their value.

-Batting average, while nice if all else is equal, hardly means anything alone. Unless there's another guy within like .005 OBP points of him with a much higher BA, the higher OBP reigns supreme.

Dunn's not perfect, but he's among the best hitters in the league and he's only 26. He'd be a near-perfect acquisition.

[bryanman8]

So Dunn's better than what we have now. That's not much to recommend him.
Also, him being as good of a hitter as Miguel Tejada, i.e. around 53rd in baseball, in an off-year when he got terribly unlucky down tons from his previous few years when he's only 26 should gain him some respect, I'd think.

[rolliefingers]

If I had Dunn I'd think about batting him second.Exactly.

Roberts
Dunn
Markakis
Tejada

at the top of the order?

:002_sdrool:

[bryanman8]

Exactly.

Roberts
Dunn
Markakis
Tejada

at the top of the order?

:002_sdrool:
Sign Soriano, Lee, or Aramis too, and I'd say we're pretty well-off for next year. :D

I'd think about this order, if it was at all possible:
1. Markakis
2. Dunn
3. Tejada
4. Soriano/Lee/Aramis
5. Hernandez
6. Roberts
7. Millar/ Gibbons
8. Mora? Dellucci? Wilson?
9. Patterson/ Cruz Jr.

That lineup would honestly be near the best in baseball.

[MP]

Also, him being as good of a hitter as Miguel Tejada, i.e. around 53rd in baseball, in an off-year when he got terribly unlucky down tons from his previous few years when he's only 26 should gain him some respect, I'd think.

Ahh c'mon, Dunn is nowhere near the hitter of Miguel Tejada. If you are saying that based on certain statistics they theoretically help their teams at an equal level, that's fine. But let's not put them on the same level in reality. They have severely different talent levels.

And their respective approaches are night and day. Dunn is so much more willing (than most in baseball) to let close balls go by. If it catches the corner for strike 3, so be it. If it's off the plate for ball 4, so be it. He's up there to mash what he likes and miss everything else. Tejada, meanwhile, is up there to hit the ball where it's pitched, to a fault. You have to miss by a mile for Tejada to take a pitch with 2 strikes on him.

If you want to build hypothetical seasons with an OBP / OPS team priority, then I suppose many would go with Dunn. But if you want to win a weekend series in the Bronx, I'd take Tejada any day of the week.

[mikezpen]

Dunn batting second isn't all that ridiculous. His splits show him doing reasonably well there-and also 7th. He jst doesn't hit well in the middle of the order...ok--I know. Hitting doesn't count any more.:D

[bryanman8]

Ahh c'mon, Dunn is nowhere near the hitter of Miguel Tejada. If you are saying that based on certain statistics they theoretically help their teams at an equal level, that's fine. But let's not put them on the same level in reality. They have severely different talent levels.

And their respective approaches are night and day. Dunn is so much more willing (than most in baseball) to let close balls go by. If it catches the corner for strike 3, so be it. If it's off the plate for ball 4, so be it. He's up there to mash what he likes and miss everything else. Tejada, meanwhile, is up there to hit the ball where it's pitched, to a fault. You have to miss by a mile for Tejada to take a pitch with 2 strikes on him.

If you want to build hypothetical seasons with an OBP / OPS team priority, then I suppose many would go with Dunn. But if you want to win a weekend series in the Bronx, I'd take Tejada any day of the week.
Who cares if their approaches is different? The measure RC/27 was designed to account for just that and hypothesize how many runs a team would score if made up of exactly 9 of those players per game. Dunn's patient power approach is clearly better than Tejada's approach of swinging at everything and not walking nearly enough.

I love Miguel, but when you don't account for position, this is the only year when Tejada's even been particularly close to Dunn in terms of offensive value.

[Sports Guy]

Actually, Tejada is a much better hitter than Dunn.

When i say that, i am talking BA. Not saying that is how to measure it but if there was 2 outs in the ninth with a runner on third, i certainly think Tejada is more capable of getting the hit over Dunn.

[elextrano8]

You need to prioritize. No one is claiming Adam Dunn is flawless.

This is the key to the whole debate. Adam Dunn is flawed ballplayer, and he definitely has some major flaws, such as his defense, low BA, and high K rates. But these flaws are FAR outweighed by what he does well, namely hit for power and get on base.

And throw me into the Dunn for #2 in the order crowd. We could do worse than having Dunn batting clean-up ::coughJeffConinecough::, but I would certainly acquire him with a view of putting him second in the batting order.

[rolliefingers]

Actually, Tejada is a much better hitter than Dunn.

When i say that, i am talking BA. Not saying that is how to measure it but if there was 2 outs in the ninth with a runner on third, i certainly think Tejada is more capable of getting the hit over Dunn.You're absolutely right. But Dunn is also capable of creating enough runs that you don't have to be tied in the bottom of the ninth in the first place.:D

[RZNJ]

Okay. The guys who like Dunn the most are the guys who tend to believe in the statistical analysis. No problem there. Now show us how much value you place in him for the O's. Which of the following trades would you accept to get Dunn for the one guaranteed year that you'd have him.

1. Penn & Hoey for Dunn
2. Cabrera or Loewen straight up for Dunn
3. Jay Gibbons & Kris Benson for Dunn

Anyone can comment but I particulary want the stat guys (Drungo, Baltimoron, Stallion, Bryan, etc.) to tell how far they'd go to acquire him. Which of these deals is easy for you to do? Which are difficult? Remember, you get Dunn for one year, and you can assume the O's will try to make other deals but you don't know what they are. The assumption is that the O's are trying to compete next year.

[bryanman8]

1. Penn & Hoey for Dunn Meh. Maybe just Penn. Don't want to give another potentially great BP arm.
2. Cabrera Yes or Loewen No straight up for Dunn
3. Jay Gibbons & Kris Benson for Dunn Absolutely. Right away. I'd probably throw in another top 10-15 spect too.

^^
Letters to make the post work...

[Sports Guy]

Giving up DCab or Penn for one year of Dunn would be an awful decision.

Benson and Gibbons...Sure.

[elextrano8]

1. Penn & Hoey for Dunn
2. Cabrera or Loewen straight up for Dunn
3. Jay Gibbons & Kris Benson for Dunn

I'd do 3 without blinking an eye, and I'd do 1 if we could get an extension OR if there was sufficient evidence that Dunn would consider an extension once acquired. I wouldn't move D-Cab or Loewen for him, though.

[RZNJ]

I'd do 3 without blinking an eye, and I'd do 1 if we could get an extension OR if there was sufficient evidence that Dunn would consider an extension once acquired. I wouldn't move D-Cab or Loewen for him, though.

Nothing against you but I hate when someone put's the "extension" qualifier in there. Assume that there is not extension in place.

[rolliefingers]

Okay. The guys who like Dunn the most are the guys who tend to believe in the statistical analysis. No problem there. Now show us how much value you place in him for the O's. Which of the following trades would you accept to get Dunn for the one guaranteed year that you'd have him.

1. Penn & Hoey for Dunn
2. Cabrera or Loewen straight up for Dunn
3. Jay Gibbons & Kris Benson for Dunn

Anyone can comment but I particulary want the stat guys (Drungo, Baltimoron, Stallion, Bryan, etc.) to tell how far they'd go to acquire him. Which of these deals is easy for you to do? Which are difficult? Remember, you get Dunn for one year, and you can assume the O's will try to make other deals but you don't know what they are. The assumption is that the O's are trying to compete next year.Two caveats:

Obviously, we need a lot more than just Dunn in order to compete next year.

Also, if he's essentially a lock to test FA and not sign an extension, that would obviously affect my feelings. I don't know how much credence to give this "Dunn is a lock for HOU or TEX" conventional wisdom.

That said:

1.) No
2.) Maybe and No (change that to Absolutely and No if he would sign an extension)
3.) Absolutely, without hesitation (change that to "OMG are you *****ting me?!" if he would sign an extension)

BTW, thanks for calling me a "stat guy". I'm flattered! But while I do very much value the power of numbers interpreted honestly, I cannot in good conscience accept that label just yet; I merely use and interpret numbers, I don't do any real analysis.

[RZNJ]

Come on Stallion! Answer the way the question was posed. No extension in place and no guarantee that he signs one. You take your chances. Now answer it the right way! :D

[rolliefingers]

Come on Stallion! Answer the way the question was posed. No extension in place and no guarantee that he signs one. You take your chances. Now answer it the right way! :DWell the extension thing is a pretty big variable! Anyway, my "non-extension" answers are there.

[elextrano8]

Nothing against you but I hate when someone put's the "extension" qualifier in there. Assume that there is not extension in place.

Yeah...the extension qualifier is there to indicate that I wouldn't do the deal without an extension or sufficient evidence that he'd seriously consider one. I think it's pretty clear that without either of those two conditions, I would not do the deal.

[bryanman8]

Come on Stallion! Answer the way the question was posed. No extension in place and no guarantee that he signs one. You take your chances. Now answer it the right way! :D
I also think it needs more qualification. Even if you don't have one in place and no guarantees, each extension possibility is a case-by-case basis. I kind of answered the question with that assumption.

If I did not at least have slightly legitimate reason to believe that if we won, he would be glad to stay here and, coupled with my other offseason moves, we would be able to win, than I doubt I would do any for them except the third option. I'm not very high on dealing top pitching prospects for a one year rental.

However, if I'm the GM and I speak to Dunn beforehand and he expresses desire to stay here, or that, if we go out and get some guys to help us win, he'll stay...anything like that, and I'm much more likely to deal Penn or Cabrera for him.

I know qualifications can be annoying, but you're not making this trade in OOTP. The GMs will have some idea personally how likely he would be of resigning here even without a guarantee, knowledge that none of us would be privy to.

[RZNJ]

Well the extension thing is a pretty big variable! Anyway, my "non-extension" answers are there.


You call "maybe' on Cabrera an answer? Don't be a pansy! :D

[RZNJ]

You guys are being sissies! You know there's no guarantee that Dunn will sign an extension. Chances are that you won't even have a good idea when you get him. You can't assume he leaves after one year and you can't assume that he stays. Make the decision based on that. Happens all the time in the real world.

[rolliefingers]

You call "maybe' on Cabrera an answer? Don't be a pansy! :DI'd do it, but I would explore several other names before I got to that point. But, gun to my head, if we make the other moves necessary to win, yeah, I do DCab for Dunn.

[RZNJ]

I'd do it, but I would explore several other names before I got to that point. But, gun to my head, if we make the other moves necessary to win, yeah, I do DCab for Dunn.

You're qualifying again. You get to make this move as your first move of the winter. You can assume the team will try to make several other moves to compete. You guys are so wishy washy. Maybe ItalianFilly would be a better handle for you.

[rolliefingers]

You guys are being sissies! You know there's no guarantee that Dunn will sign an extension. Chances are that you won't even have a good idea when you get him. You can't assume he leaves after one year and you can't assume that he stays. Make the decision based on that. Happens all the time in the real world.And you're being unrealistic. The reality is that if CIN allows us to talk to him and he goes, "Y'know guys, I really want to play in Texas. Nothing personal. The only way I sign with you is if HOU, TEX, both NY teams and BOS turn me down." then no way. But if he says, "I'd consider it, but you really have to make a commitment to winning, or else I'm out after one year." then that changes things considerably. That conversation is not impossible to have.

[rolliefingers]

You're qualifying again. You get to make this move as your first move of the winter. You can assume the team will try to make several other moves to compete. You guys are so wishy washy. Maybe ItalianFilly would be a better handle for you.Aha! Look who's making qualifications now!

You can't ask a hypothetical unless you set the parameters.

[RZNJ]

And you're being unrealistic. The reality is that if CIN allows us to talk to him and he goes, "Y'know guys, I really want to play in Texas. Nothing personal. The only way I sign with you is if HOU, TEX, both NY teams and BOS turn me down." then no way. But if he says, "I'd consider it, but you really have to make a commitment to winning, or else I'm out after one year." then that changes things considerably. That conversation is not impossible to have.


Not unrealistic at all. Most GM's, including Billy Beane will not allow a team a window to talk about extensions or to feel the player out. You just don't like the paramaters involved because it involves the unknown.

[bryanman8]

And you're being unrealistic. The reality is that if CIN allows us to talk to him and he goes, "Y'know guys, I really want to play in Texas. Nothing personal. The only way I sign with you is if HOU, TEX, both NY teams and BOS turn me down." then no way. But if he says, "I'd consider it, but you really have to make a commitment to winning, or else I'm out after one year." then that changes things considerably. That conversation is not impossible to have.
Exactly. I can't believe RZNJ is using the line "That stuff happens in the real world" when he's trying to simplify it to a black-and-white, person-free, idea-free, discussion-free, knowledge-free land of "yes or no" like you're making a trade in a fantasy baseball league.

[Sports Guy]

Put it this way...Dunn wants to play in Texas, where he is from.

Assume no chance he signs an extension.

[bryanman8]

Put it this way...Dunn wants to play in Texas, where he is from.

Assume no chance he signs an extension.
Thank you. Now we actually have something qualified.
1- Heck no.
2- Heck no.
3- Yes.

[rolliefingers]

And you're being unrealistic. The reality is that if CIN allows us to talk to him and he goes, "Y'know guys, I really want to play in Texas. Nothing personal. The only way I sign with you is if HOU, TEX, both NY teams and BOS turn me down." then no way. But if he says, "I'd consider it, but you really have to make a commitment to winning, or else I'm out after one year." then that changes things considerably. That conversation is not impossible to have.BTW, although the report is questionable, and there is an NTC involved, this very situation supposedly happened with Burrell. He doesn't want to be here, we don't trade anything more than Gibbons and Benson for him.

[RZNJ]

Exactly. I can't believe RZNJ is using the line "That stuff happens in the real world" when he's trying to simplify it to a black-and-white, person-free, idea-free, discussion-free, knowledge-free land of "yes or no" like you're making a trade in a fantasy baseball league.


Haha! It's you guys who are in fantasy land. You can't make a decision unless everything is in black and white. When I lay out a simple hypothetical that you are getting Dunn and you don't know if you have him for one year or more, that you guys can't handle that hypothetical. You have to qualify every opinion. You trying out for the baseball team or the girl's softball team this spring? :D

[RZNJ]

BTW, although the report is questionable, and there is an NTC involved, this very situation supposedly happened with Burrell. He doesn't want to be here, we don't trade anything more than Gibbons and Benson for him.


Does Dunn have a NTC? If he doesn't then I don't see the comparison.

[rolliefingers]

Put it this way...Dunn wants to play in Texas, where he is from.

Assume no chance he signs an extension.OK, let's assume that. What are your answers (apologies if you already replied).

[elextrano8]

Haha! It's you guys who are in fantasy land. You can't make a decision unless everything is in black and white. When I lay out a simple hypothetical that you are getting Dunn and you don't know if you have him for one year or more, that you guys can't handle that hypothetical. You have to qualify every opinion. You trying out for the baseball team or the girl's softball team this spring? :D

Dude, what the hell are you trying to prove, anyway? As near as I can tell, everyone answered your question in a reasonable fashion, and you keep on coming back and calling people sissies and telling us we live in fantasy land. Whats your problem today?

[El Gordo]

Okay. The guys who like Dunn the most are the guys who tend to believe in the statistical analysis. No problem there. Now show us how much value you place in him for the O's. Which of the following trades would you accept to get Dunn for the one guaranteed year that you'd have him.

1. Penn & Hoey for Dunn
2. Cabrera or Loewen straight up for Dunn
3. Jay Gibbons & Kris Benson for Dunn

Anyone can comment but I particulary want the stat guys (Drungo, Baltimoron, Stallion, Bryan, etc.) to tell how far they'd go to acquire him. Which of these deals is easy for you to do? Which are difficult? Remember, you get Dunn for one year, and you can assume the O's will try to make other deals but you don't know what they are. The assumption is that the O's are trying to compete next year.
Number 3. That might be doable if Benson had another year on his contract. Gibbons is actually a defensive upgrade over Dunn.:D

[RZNJ]

Dude, what the hell are you trying to prove, anyway? As near as I can tell, everyone answered your question in a reasonable fashion, and you keep on coming back and calling people sissies and telling us we live in fantasy land. Whats your problem today?


Don't call me Dude, dude!

BTW, there was some humor intended. I haven't called anyone a sissy in so long. I didn't realize how offensive it was.

[Sports Guy]

OK, let's assume that. What are your answers (apologies if you already replied).
See Bryan's answers for mine.

[rolliefingers]

Does Dunn have a NTC? If he doesn't then I don't see the comparison.Not to my knowledge, but it's still reasonable to ask Dunn beforehand if he would sign an extension. It's also reasonable for the team to deny that request.

I'm just saying that you're claiming that "in the real world" people take huge risks without knowing the outcome, all the time. Really? Do they? Do you?

Imagine you were dating a really nice, more-or-less average girl, but you got word that you could sleep with this amazingly hot girl, but somehow you didn't know if she was into you. You could either:

1.) Dump the nice girl and sleep with the hot girl, knowing that girl 1 is gone forever and that maybe the hot girl is just in it to steal your wallet

or

2.) Keep the nice girl, tell the hot girl to bugger off and be satisfied that you didn't give up what you had.

Wouldn't you need to know a little bit more about the situation? Like if the hot girl was worth anything as a person? Whether she liked you or not?

I know it's not a perfect analogy, but would you sleep with the hot girl and piss off your current girlfriend, on the outside shot that the hot girl really liked you?

[RZNJ]

Not to my knowledge, but it's still reasonable to ask Dunn beforehand if he would sign an extension. It's also reasonable for the team to deny that request.

I'm just saying that you're claiming that "in the real world" people take huge risks without knowing the outcome, all the time. Really? Do they? Do you?

Imagine you were dating a really nice, more-or-less average girl, but you got word that you could sleep with this amazingly hot girl, but somehow you didn't know if she was into you. You could either:

1.) Dump the nice girl and sleep with the hot girl, knowing that girl 1 is gone forever and that maybe the hot girl is just in it to steal your wallet

or

2.) Keep the nice girl, tell the hot girl to bugger off and be satisfied that you didn't give up what you had.

Wouldn't you need to know a little bit more about the situation? Like if the hot girl was worth anything as a person? Whether she liked you or not?

I know it's not a perfect analogy, but would you sleep with the hot girl and piss off your current girlfriend, on the outside shot that the hot girl really liked you?

When I said real world, I meant the real world of baseball. It's not unreasonable to ask people to answer that hypothetical without being sure if Dunn would sign an extension or even of what the chances were. Is it possible that you could find out? Yes. But that's not the way the question was posed.

As for your analogy, you didn't give me a lot of information. Can I sleep with the hot chick without the nice girl finding out? Am I in an exclusive realationship with the nice girl? Etc. All of this is information that a person would have inside their head. I gave you the paramaters of my hypothetical and I feel that there was enough information and that it was a realistic scenario. It happens all of the time in baseball that teams trade for players without knowing if they'll have them for longer than the terms of their contracts.

[RustyMcNail]

I cannot see this guy, at least not making him a central part of your batting order.

He strikes out way too much, his BA w/MOB is terrible, he can't hit lefties for the most part.I keep hearing this OPS and OBA stuff, but most of it's walks and not good hitting.

3-year stats 2003-2005 2006 in parenthesis
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6763&type=batting3

against LH pitching .241 (.270-but only .215 vs, righties now:D )

RISP -.236 (.221)

runners on .243 (.217 !!!!)

runner on third, less than 2 out .195 (.150)

He's a poor hitter in the power spots in the order (and even worse this year)

He's fanned a third of the time over his career, This year it was almost 40% (and people knock Cory Patterson?)

Bases loaded .231 (.273 this year-whoopee)

In .2005, I compared his to the abysmal situational numbers Sosa put up. For the most part, Sosa's were better. Maybe I'd give them Benson for him; that's about it. Bat him 6th or 7th. This guy isn't the answer.

Great post! Well researched and well written.

Adam Dunn is a perfect example of be careful what you wish for. Doesn't anyone wonder why Cincinnati is so anxious to dump him?

[RustyMcNail]

Giving up DCab or Penn for one year of Dunn would be an awful decision.

Benson and Gibbons...Sure.

For Benson and Gibbons, I'd take him; DCab or Penn no way.

[bryanman8]

Great post! Well researched and well written.

Adam Dunn is a perfect example of be careful what you wish for. Doesn't anyone wonder why Cincinnati is so anxious to dump him?
Because they're stupid?

Again, you want Placido Polanco?

He picked out a few minor flaws that are widely insignificant in scoring runs in baseball. No one's claiming Dunn is perfect, but he's darn close.

[Sports Guy]

Because they're stupid?

Again, you want Placido Polanco?

He picked out a few minor flaws that are widely insignificant in scoring runs in baseball. No one's claiming Dunn is perfect, but he's darn close.No he's not close to perfect.

[DrungoHazewood]

He picked out a few minor flaws that are widely insignificant in scoring runs in baseball. No one's claiming Dunn is perfect, but he's darn close.


Great post! Well researched and well written.

Adam Dunn is a perfect example of be careful what you wish for. Doesn't anyone wonder why Cincinnati is so anxious to dump him?

Methinks the truth lies somewhere between the abject loathing and puppy love.

Dunn is a flawed, yet still valuable player.

[RZNJ]

Because they're stupid?

Again, you want Placido Polanco?

He picked out a few minor flaws that are widely insignificant in scoring runs in baseball. No one's claiming Dunn is perfect, but he's darn close.

So being a terrible fielder, a base clogger on the bases, and a very low average is close to perfect? Throw in the 190 K's too!

[rolliefingers]

Methinks the truth lies somewhere between the abject loathing and puppy love.

Dunn is a flawed, yet still valuable player.Drungo! The voice of moderation, as always.

Dunn is very good at what he does, which is get on base and hit for power. I think he'd be a tremendous 2-hole hitter, like Abreu with less speed and more power.

[Sports Guy]

So being a terrible fielder, a base clogger on the bases, and a very low average is close to perfect? Throw in the 190 K's too!
Not to mention close to FA and not cheap.

Far from perfect. But, as Drungo said, a very valuable player.

[bryanman8]

Methinks the truth lies somewhere between the abject loathing and puppy love.

Dunn is a flawed, yet still valuable player.
Potential to be a top 10 'offenseman' (since SG permanently objects to my use of the word "hitter") in baseball, 26...in terms of playing baseball, he's one of the best.

And yeah, if they're going to represent the "Dunn stinks horribly" extreme, someone has to represent the "man-crush" extreme.

[BigSteve]

Potential to be a top 10 'offenseman' (since SG permanently objects to my use of the word "hitter") in baseball, 26...in terms of playing baseball, he's one of the best.

You think Dunn is a potential top 10 hitter, but Teixeira is overrated? Seems like the main concerns about Teixeira (VORP, home/road splits) apply even more to Dunn than to Teixeira, plus the fact that Dunn is a well below average defender and Teixeira is above average, and it seems like Dunn is the one being overrated.

I've never really like Dunn all the much. I'd love to have him in our lineup at LF or 1B or DH because he is a very, very good hitter, but not for just one year, and not if the cost is one of our young pitchers or other prospects/young players.

[DrungoHazewood]

Potential to be a top 10 'offenseman' (since SG permanently objects to my use of the word "hitter") in baseball, 26...in terms of playing baseball, he's one of the best.

And yeah, if they're going to represent the "Dunn stinks horribly" extreme, someone has to represent the "man-crush" extreme.

See, that's where you're wrong. People respect your opinion a lot more when you just present the truth and don't treat hyperbole as fact. Let the guys who're wrong make the ridiculous statements, and the fact they're wrong will quickly become apparent.

[RZNJ]

See, that's where you're wrong. People respect your opinion a lot more when you just present the truth and don't treat hyperbole as fact. Let the guys who're wrong make the ridiculous statements, and the fact they're wrong will quickly become apparent.


A beautiful thing. Drungo plays Batman to Bryan's Robin. Holy guru!