Top position players 25 and under? [Archive]

mweb

04-24-2007, 04:20 AM

This is a topic that always interests me, here's my top 10, hopefully I won't forget anyone:

BTW, any of the first 3 could be #1, although as of now, MCab has earned the #1 spot.

1. MCAB
2. Mauer
3. Sizemore
4. Reyes(wouldn't be surprised if he leads off this list by years end)
5. Wright
6. McCann(seems to get overlooked too much)
7. Ramirez(SG, you really called this one;) )
8. Cano(most likely guy to fall off this list imo)
9. Crawford
10. A. Gonzalez(SG, you did call this one)

Others to consider for now or guys that may be on here shortly but haven't done quite enough: Kinsler, Upton, Markakis, Weeks, Kendrick, Martin, Zimmerman, Baldelli, and plenty of others I haven't thought of.

Looks like the NL finally has a great group of SS's(Reyes, HRam, Rollins, Furcal) after the AL had dominated the position for so long. It seems we might be on the cusp of another great catching era right as the last one come's to an end. I'm speaking of Mauer, McCann, and Martin as the future with Piazza, IRod, and Posada being the recent past. 3rd base might be great as well with MCab, Wright, Atkins, Zimmerman, and Gordon among others.

Baltimoron

04-24-2007, 04:45 AM

BTW, any of the first 5 could be #1.

That's absurd. #1 is way, way ahead of anyone else. Don't be silly.

mweb

04-24-2007, 04:53 AM

That's absurd. #1 is way, way ahead of anyone else. Don't be silly.

Silly? MCab, is the best imo, but I don't think it's by a huge margin at all, especially when considering position, and I think there's a decent chance at least one of those guys surpass him this season. Although I'll concede Wright is a bit of stretch and Reyes is too based on past performance, but he's been incredible so far this year, and like I said, I think he could prove to be the best of the group. But thanks for being so polite about it.

Baltimoron

04-24-2007, 04:56 AM

Cranky, eh :)

Lets try it this way: How many position players in baseball are better than Miguel Cabrera?

mweb

04-24-2007, 05:09 AM

Cranky, eh :)

Lets try it this way: How many position players in baseball are better than Miguel Cabrera?

Not cranky at all, just don't care to be talked to like that.

To answer that, not many, but I think Mauer and Sizemore are pretty close. Reyes might be as well, or better, we'll see how for real his start is. None of these guys compare to MCab as a hitter, but those 3 play much more important positions than MCab, and contribute more on the basepaths. Most likely in the intangibles department as well considering their respective reputations, although I don't put too much emphasis on that.

And I edited my original post to only the top 3 should be considered for #1 right now, while I think Reyes is the WC to watch in the future.

BTW, any other thoughts on this besides the gap between MCab and the rest?

DrungoHazewood

04-24-2007, 08:19 AM

You know that Miguel Cabrera is about nine months older than Nick Markakis, but has about 2400 major league plate appearances at a .920 OPS? In a pitcher's park?

He has a legitimate shot at breaking most career offensive records. He just might get to 3000 hits by his mid-30s. He could reach 3000 hits, 500 homers, 750 doubles, around 2000 runs and RBI.

Of course he could also end up as Caesar Cedeno, but the list of guys who have legitimiate shots at the things he does is very, very, very short.

davearm

04-24-2007, 10:17 AM

IMO Robinson Cano doesn't belong in this discussion.

If he can live up to the hype, Alex Gordon will be on this list real soon.

Baltimoron

04-24-2007, 11:08 AM

Not trying to be snippy, sorry. MCab is my favorite player not named Nick.

I look at it as only Ortiz, Pujols and Hafner have been better offensive players over the last two years.

Both Reyes and Sizemore are great defensive players and promising offensive talents. But Mcab RAKES and is not the butcher he once was at third base.

Its much harder to predict him improving because his level of performance is so high, but that kind of consistently elite performance (and the future promise it holds, as speed ages much faster than a monster bat, and Reyes and Sizemore are very speed driven) give him the edge in my book.

IMO Sizemore just approached this level last year and Reyes has yet to arrive at that level, although he was on the cusp last year and appears to have grown even more early this season.

And he's a year younger than Sizemore and the same age as Reyes.

Avsfan

04-24-2007, 11:10 AM

MCab is a top 5 player in all of baseball...much less under 25

Baltimoron

04-24-2007, 11:19 AM

mweb

04-24-2007, 01:47 PM

IMO Robinson Cano doesn't belong in this discussion.

If he can live up to the hype, Alex Gordon will be on this list real soon.

Well Cano's season last year certainly warrants him being on the list, but like I said, he's the most likely to fall off the list this year.

mweb

04-24-2007, 01:53 PM

Is it talent right now? I tried a Bill Simmons NBA like list that got into contract and age here (http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45365&highlight=trade) (which I think makes this exercise more interesting) It airballed but I love this topic too. Way to get it going.

In addition to Gordon, I think the names of Prince Fielder, Delmon Young and Chris Young have to be out there, as their ascension to the top of this list is looming.

I think Rickie Weeks is top ten. IMO he's better than Cano, who I don't value in the top 15 or so.

Again, Cano is coming off a year which clearly puts him into this discussion, you may think he won't repeat the success like me, but his possible demise isn't a factor for right now imo. I think Weeks will prove to be higher soon, but other than a hot start this season, what has he done to warrant being ahead of Cano?

I'm going with what the players have done up til now, but you can go whatever direction you like.

Baltimoron

04-24-2007, 02:25 PM

Again, Cano is coming off a year which clearly puts him into this discussion, you may think he won't repeat the success like me, but his possible demise isn't a factor for right now imo. I think Weeks will prove to be higher soon, but other than a hot start this season, what has he done to warrant being ahead of Cano?

I'm going with what the players have done up til now, but you can go whatever direction you like.

He can catch and throw and run the bases real good. and take walks.

Cano has bricks for hands and not so good on the bases, although in fairness he has shown more patience at the plate this year.

That said, its really important to have a solid defensive second baseman. The Yankees don't, yet.

mweb

04-24-2007, 02:35 PM

He can catch and throw and run the bases real good. and take walks.

Cano has bricks for hands and not so good on the bases, although in fairness he has shown more patience at the plate this year.

That said, its really important to have a solid defensive second baseman. The Yankees don't, yet.

I don't trust rate much, but it says Cano is quite good at 2nd, Weeks, not so much. Cano also easily rated higher in ZR and had a much better fielding %. So what defensive stats do you have that rate Weeks as being much better? Cano was .133 better in OPS, so I have a hard time believing Weeks defense(rated very poorly by rate) and baserunning makes up that difference.

davearm

04-24-2007, 04:52 PM

He can catch and throw and run the bases real good. and take walks.

Cano has bricks for hands and not so good on the bases, although in fairness he has shown more patience at the plate this year.

That said, its really important to have a solid defensive second baseman. The Yankees don't, yet.
Weeks is not very good at all at 2B.

In fact the Brewers thought long and hard about biting the bullet and moving him to the OF. They've stuck with him at 2B for now, but that's still a somewhat tenuous situation.

Moose Milligan

04-24-2007, 05:08 PM

Baltimoron

04-24-2007, 08:17 PM

I don't trust rate much, but it says Cano is quite good at 2nd, Weeks, not so much. Cano also easily rated higher in ZR and had a much better fielding %. So what defensive stats do you have that rate Weeks as being much better? Cano was .133 better in OPS, so I have a hard time believing Weeks defense(rated very poorly by rate) and baserunning makes up that difference.

Weeks had a broken wrist last year and missed the last part of the year. Cano's ZR was .807 - to Weeks .765 *BUT* Weeks made only 2 less plays out of zone (OOZ) than Cano in 200+ fewer innings (1009 - 794) and only turned 6 fewer double plays (The Brew crew had Bill Hall at SS after Hardy got hurt, and he was initially shaky and got pretty good, yet Weeks was gone during a lot of this "better" period).

To put it in perspective, Orlando Hudson, probably the best defensive second baseman in baseball, had a lower ZR than Cano. OOZ is very important (see article below).

I'd suggest you give a look at THT's ZR and OOZ if you are using STATs ZR data leave the Rate alone.

FYI:

Unfortunately, Baseball Info Solutions decided not to release the +/- fielding system they published in The Fielding Bible last year. So no Fielding Bible.

Thankfully, the folks at The Hardball Times purchased detailed Zone Rating (the new Zone Rating that was behind the +/- system, not the Zone Rating available elsewhere, like ESPN) statistics from BIS. While they're not the same as the stats that were the highlight of the fielding bible, they're still very good: essentially they assign each fielder a zone (or rather, a set of zones) on the field and assess how many balls hit into that zone the fielder converts into outs. They also lists plays made out of zone. This has advantages over more traditional fielding stats like fielding percentage because it incorporates fielder range into the estimate of fielder quality in addition to his sure-handedness and ability to throw accurately. And it's better than range factor because it accounts for the number of balls a player had the opportunity to field, rather than just assuming that all players get the same number of chances at a given position.

THT stats (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=fielding&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=zone_rating&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2006&league_filter%5B%5D=All&pos_filter%5B%5D=4&Submit=Submit)

Explanation of "Fielding Bible" Zone Rating and Stats Zone Rating, i.e. ESPN ZR (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-is-zone-rating/)

Cano's 2006 OPS = 342 BA. Do it again? If he only hits .320 that's a minimum of .044 off his OPS and likely more than .05.

Cano has shown better plate discipline, but he still only has 4 non-IBBs in 71 ABs this year. And he hasn't yet shown any power at all, hitting .325 but only slugging .408.

Rickie Weeks is slugging and drawing walks and being healthy.

Baltimoron

04-24-2007, 08:22 PM

I'm sorry, but why do SO many people hate Cano?

I'm not trying to be a Yankee apologist here or anything but he's hitting .324 this year.

I know he wasn't the prized, hyped Yankee prospect but he's doing really well. I'm also aware that he's in an incredible lineup but he's doing his part and contributing a great deal.

He absolutely deserves to be a part of this conversation.

I don't think he is one of the ten best or even 15 best but he should be in the conversation.

High average but Low BB/Low Patience (career high 3.49P/PA in 07)/Low Power and bad D and poor baserunning.

mweb

04-24-2007, 10:03 PM

Weeks had a broken wrist last year and missed the last part of the year. Cano's ZR was .807 - to Weeks .765 *BUT* Weeks made only 2 less plays out of zone (OOZ) than Cano in 200+ fewer innings (1009 - 794) and only turned 6 fewer double plays (The Brew crew had Bill Hall at SS after Hardy got hurt, and he was initially shaky and got pretty good, yet Weeks was gone during a lot of this "better" period).

To put it in perspective, Orlando Hudson, probably the best defensive second baseman in baseball, had a lower ZR than Cano. OOZ is very important (see article below).

I'd suggest you give a look at THT's ZR and OOZ if you are using STATs ZR data leave the Rate alone.

FYI:

THT stats (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=fielding&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=zone_rating&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2006&league_filter%5B%5D=All&pos_filter%5B%5D=4&Submit=Submit)

Explanation of "Fielding Bible" Zone Rating and Stats Zone Rating, i.e. ESPN ZR (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-is-zone-rating/)

Cano's 2006 OPS = 342 BA. Do it again? If he only hits .320 that's a minimum of .044 off his OPS and likely more than .05.

Cano has shown better plate discipline, but he still only has 4 non-IBBs in 71 ABs this year. And he hasn't yet shown any power at all, hitting .325 but only slugging .408.

Rickie Weeks is slugging and drawing walks and being healthy.

Yeah, I think Weeks will be better than Cano, but I don't see any reason to put him ahead now based on what they've done in their young careers. And defense certainly doesn't close the gap as of right now. You still haven't shown how Cano is bad defensively. BTW, Cano has a .324 AVG, but a better OBP compared to last years, so if he can get his power back up to last years level, he may still be very productive even with a lower average.

Baltimoron

04-25-2007, 01:36 PM

Yeah, I think Weeks will be better than Cano, but I don't see any reason to put him ahead now based on what they've done in their young careers. And defense certainly doesn't close the gap as of right now. You still haven't shown how Cano is bad defensively. BTW, Cano has a .324 AVG, but a better OBP compared to last years, so if he can get his power back up to last years level, he may still be very productive even with a lower average.

I know, I showed how Weeks is better.

mweb

04-25-2007, 07:34 PM

I know, I showed how Weeks is better.

Not exactly.

Baltimoron

04-26-2007, 11:59 PM

Not exactly.

Do you somehow disagree that the THT defensive stats are better than the traditional zone rating, or do you not understand how they demonstrate that Weeks is better defensively?

davearm

04-27-2007, 02:16 AM

Do you somehow disagree that the THT defensive stats are better than the traditional zone rating, or do you not understand how they demonstrate that Weeks is better defensively?
I have no knowledge of how THT comes up with its defensive stats.

I can tell you two things though.

One is that defensive stats as a rule need to be taken with a grain of salt, because as most experts will tell you, nobody's yet established a truly reliable measure. The PBP work that's being done now shows a lot of promise (IMO), but that approach is really in its infancy.

Two is that Baseball Prospectus' best currently-available defensive metric, Rate2, shows Cano to be head and shoulders better than Weeks. Cano shows a 107 Rate2 (in 268 G), while Weeks shows an 88 (in 212 G).

The bottom line is you open yourself up to some very valid criticism if/when you quote any website's or expert's defensive measures as some sort of gospel truth.

mweb

04-27-2007, 05:20 AM

Do you somehow disagree that the THT defensive stats are better than the traditional zone rating, or do you not understand how they demonstrate that Weeks is better defensively?

Like Dave said, defensive stats are not the gospel. And THT's ZR has Cano being better than Weeks for 2006, so I guess I don't understand how their stats show Weeks was so much better last year. And yes, I saw that Weeks has an edge in OOZ when considering innings played.

And besides, my point was that you didn't show how Weeks alledged defensive edge makes up for the large gap in their offense going into this season.

Once again, I think Weeks will be better(probably already is, but needs to prove his start is legit), but going into this season, Cano had a clear edge, show me how that is wrong.

Baltimoron

04-27-2007, 10:11 AM

I have no knowledge of how THT comes up with its defensive stats.

I can tell you two things though.

One is that defensive stats as a rule need to be taken with a grain of salt, because as most experts will tell you, nobody's yet established a truly reliable measure. The PBP work that's being done now shows a lot of promise (IMO), but that approach is really in its infancy.

Two is that Baseball Prospectus' best currently-available defensive metric, Rate2, shows Cano to be head and shoulders better than Weeks. Cano shows a 107 Rate2 (in 268 G), while Weeks shows an 88 (in 212 G).

The bottom line is you open yourself up to some very valid criticism if/when you quote any website's or expert's defensive measures as some sort of gospel truth.

Ms-information and distortion help no one. Add something instead of providing irrelevant generalizations and inaccurate statements about defensive statistics you obviously don't understand. LOL at Rate2. I'm not sure why you think anyone has suggested a defensive stat is gospel. Its only been suggested than one measure is far superior to the prior version of a measure (cited by MWEB) that was invented over 20 years ago and whose shortcoming has been a topic of conversation for sometime until the stats original inventor published a revised version in the fielding bible. Thanks for the lecture though dad, maybe next time you'll provide something insightful and pertinent to the conversation.

Baltimoron

04-27-2007, 10:33 AM

Like Dave said, defensive stats are not the gospel. And THT's ZR has Cano being better than Weeks for 2006, so I guess I don't understand how their stats show Weeks was so much better last year. And yes, I saw that Weeks has an edge in OOZ when considering innings played.

This was the whole point of Sean Smith's article comparing the old and new versions of zone ratings. Every ball you field and turn into an out has value. Weeks fields more balls per inning.

And besides, my point was that you didn't show how Weeks alledged defensive edge makes up for the large gap in their offense going into this season.

Once again, I think Weeks will be better(probably already is, but needs to prove his start is legit), but going into this season, Cano had a clear edge, show me how that is wrong.

What am I supposed to show? I expressed my opinion that Weeks is a better young player because he is a better defender, hits for more power and takes more walks. You responded with the ZR stuff. I showed you how ZR favors Weeks.

We are trying to evaluate young players, of course its speculative. I'm not arguing Weeks was better last year (which is what a reliance on last year's numbers will show you). These guys are young players. I'm arguing he is better now, and better going forward. Of course Cano has an edge, he didn't miss over two months of last season with a wrist injury. From the underlined part it sound like we agree.

07 stats are certainly to early to rely on for much but what has held true is Weeks is much better at drawing walks and hitting for more power. Cano's hitting a lot of singles and for average but isn't seeing many pitches or hitting for power.

That's why these posts are fun - there is no "right answer" that can be quantified in any way other than waiting. Sure, you could try a silly argument like Cano is better than MCab but the whole reason why these threads are good is that the answer is more subjective so there is more room for original thoughts and ideas and less room for dismissive numbers.

If you can't accept disagreement and the fact that we can't anoint a clear winner just yet, you've missed why this type of thread is the best. Prospects and young players = no clear answer just yet.

Baltimoron

04-27-2007, 10:41 AM

BTW, I'm lost. You listed the top players under 25, and when I said Weeks was better than Cano you challeneged me, but then you wrote:

I think Weeks will be better(probably already is, but needs to prove his start is legit)

We seem to agree this is not an MVP like discussion. What's done is done. Cano has been better so far. That said, I think Weeks is better now and going forward. Past stats may be relevant to the extent they allow us to extrapolate into the future, but are otherwise irrelevant.

How do we disagree, other than our respective certainties that Weeks is better now?

Baltimoron

04-27-2007, 10:49 AM

Weeks is not very good at all at 2B.

In fact the Brewers thought long and hard about biting the bullet and moving him to the OF. They've stuck with him at 2B for now, but that's still a somewhat tenuous situation.

The reason he is such a highly regarded prospect is his athleticism. I'm not sure what your post has to do with anything. No one claims he was always a good second baseman, just that he is pretty good now, much better than Cano and most importantly, still getting better. Its not a tenuous situation. For example, from the brewers 07 preview:

Rickie Weeks
Before his season ended prematurely, Weeks showed us that his defense was much improved. In fact, his second half of '06 was rather impressive. Weeks will solidify the middle of the infield with a fine glove. Perhaps most importantly, Weeks will prove to us that although not a typical lead off hitter, he will show discipline at the plate and show the National League that power can be put in the lead off spot.
- Jamie Siegel
Brewer fan link (http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=263)

Young players take time to develop.

davearm

04-27-2007, 11:19 AM

Ms-information and distortion help no one. Add something instead of providing irrelevant generalizations and inaccurate statements about defensive statistics you obviously don't understand. LOL at Rate2. I'm not sure why you think anyone has suggested a defensive stat is gospel. Its only been suggested than one measure is far superior to the prior version of a measure (cited by MWEB) that was invented over 20 years ago and whose shortcoming has been a topic of conversation for sometime until the stats original inventor published a revised version in the fielding bible. Thanks for the lecture though dad, maybe next time you'll provide something insightful and pertinent to the conversation.
I'm not sure why you felt the need to be such a jerk here.

I'm not claiming Rate2 is a great stat or anything. What I'm pointing out is that two different systems aimed at measuring defensive production can give wildly different results. This example illustrates that reality in spades.

The bottom line is that two guys sitting down to answer the same question, each using reasonable and well-constructed analytical methodologies, can (and have) come to vastly different conclusions. Guys like Bill James, John Dewan, and Clay Davenport (among many others) are all really bright guys, yet what they have to say about quantifying defense differs considerably -- not only in method, but in findings.

Now if you want to believe that there really is one be-all and end-all measure of defensive production, one that would allow you to conclude definitively and without a doubt, as you have ("I showed how Weeks is better"), that Weeks is a better defender than Cano, then that's your business.

Just be aware that the majority of folks that have given this issue some thought disagree with that conclusion, and would suggest that you're reaching by making such declarative statements.

Baltimoron

04-27-2007, 11:27 AM

In fact the Brewers thought long and hard about biting the bullet and moving him to the OF.

Assuming this is true, doesn't this bolster the case for Weeks. If just a few years ago he was horrible, and has shown such great improvement already (in part a testament to his athleticism), doesn't that bode well for the future and suggest he may in fact not yet have peaked defensively?

He played the last half of 05 and 2/3rds of 06 in the majors, and few doubt he showed great improvement over that time period. One can see similarities in the way in which Nick M. grew over his first season in the big leagues.

Fun stats: Weeks is walking 11.7% of the time he comes to the plate this year. Although he is only hitting .241, he is slugging .542. 5 hrs, 3 3Bs and 4 2bs. And his Ks per plate appearance are down 10% from his 05-06 numbers, from 25% to 15%. If he keeps making contact his average won't stay down for long with his speed and power.
link (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1849&position=2B)

davearm

04-27-2007, 11:29 AM

The reason he is such a highly regarded prospect is his athleticism. I'm not sure what your post has to do with anything. No one claims he was always a good second baseman, just that he is pretty good now, much better than Cano and most importantly, still getting better. Its not a tenuous situation. For example, from the brewers 07 preview:

Brewer fan link (http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=263)

Young players take time to develop.
LOL!

Curious, who's this Jamie Siegel guy that we also are apparently taking as gospel truth? What makes you think he's any more of an authority on this topic than me or you?

And FYI, Weeks is a highly regarded prospect because he can flat out hit. He's one of those guys that you swallow hard and find a spot on the field for, because his bat justifies it.

Now he may develop into a fine 2B one day. That's certainly a possibility. He's not one yet, though. He also might develop into Soriano v2.0. After seeing him play many times myself, I find the latter far more likely. He has nice range but his mechanics are really not good at all -- hands, footwork, throwing, it's all pretty ugly. Very Sorianoesque, actually.

davearm

04-27-2007, 11:34 AM

Assuming this is true, doesn't this bolster the case for Weeks. If just a few years ago he was horrible, and has shown such great improvement already (in part a testament to his athleticism), doesn't that bode well for the future and suggest he may in fact not yet have peaked defensively?

He played the last half of 05 and 2/3rds of 06 in the majors, and few doubt he showed great improvement over that time period. One can see similarities in the way in which Nick M. grew over his first season in the big leagues.

Fun stats: Weeks is walking 11.7% of the time he comes to the plate this year. Although he is only hitting .241, he is slugging .542. 5 hrs, 3 3Bs and 4 2bs. And his Ks per plate appearance are down 10% from his 05-06 numbers, from 25% to 15%. If he keeps making contact his average won't stay down for long with his speed and power.
link (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1849&position=2B)
Weeks was horrible for much of last season.

The move to the OF (CF, specifically) was under consideration this past offseason. They ultimately chose to move Bill Hall there instead, but that decision had more to do with JJ Hardy than any optimism about Weeks' prospects for improving at 2B.

mweb

04-27-2007, 12:18 PM

BTW, I'm lost. You listed the top players under 25, and when I said Weeks was better than Cano you challeneged me, but then you wrote:

We seem to agree this is not an MVP like discussion. What's done is done. Cano has been better so far. That said, I think Weeks is better now and going forward. Past stats may be relevant to the extent they allow us to extrapolate into the future, but are otherwise irrelevant.

How do we disagree, other than our respective certainties that Weeks is better now?

How are you lost? This is about who's better now, not who's going to be better. You just said Cano has been better so far, that's what I'm saying, so since he's been better so far, he ranks ahead of Weeks until Richie shows he's better which is probably happening now, but needs to be done over a longer period of time as I said.

mweb

04-27-2007, 12:28 PM

This was the whole point of Sean Smith's article comparing the old and new versions of zone ratings. Every ball you field and turn into an out has value. Weeks fields more balls per inning.

What am I supposed to show? I expressed my opinion that Weeks is a better young player because he is a better defender, hits for more power and takes more walks. You responded with the ZR stuff. I showed you how ZR favors Weeks.

We are trying to evaluate young players, of course its speculative. I'm not arguing Weeks was better last year (which is what a reliance on last year's numbers will show you). These guys are young players. I'm arguing he is better now, and better going forward. Of course Cano has an edge, he didn't miss over two months of last season with a wrist injury. From the underlined part it sound like we agree.

07 stats are certainly to early to rely on for much but what has held true is Weeks is much better at drawing walks and hitting for more power. Cano's hitting a lot of singles and for average but isn't seeing many pitches or hitting for power.

That's why these posts are fun - there is no "right answer" that can be quantified in any way other than waiting. Sure, you could try a silly argument like Cano is better than MCab but the whole reason why these threads are good is that the answer is more subjective so there is more room for original thoughts and ideas and less room for dismissive numbers.

If you can't accept disagreement and the fact that we can't anoint a clear winner just yet, you've missed why this type of thread is the best. Prospects and young players = no clear answer just yet.

No, you've missed the point of my thread. It's about how good they're currently, which there pretty much are right and wrong answers on. I find it funny though that you now say there are no clear answers after you called my comment on the #1 spot absurd and told me to stop being silly earlier. I've thrown in some future comments as well and expected others to do the same, but the rankings are about now.

And I guess I'm blind, but I still don't see how THT's ZR favors Weeks in 2006. Weeks had a .765 ZR, Cano had an .807 ZR, even if you add Weeks OOZ plays to the equation, he still made a lower % of outs out of total chances. I'm also not sure why you keep saying I'm using the old ZR, your link brings me to the same page that I've been using all along.

mikeygale

04-28-2007, 09:53 AM

I love the idea behind this thread. I'd probably put Mauer at #1 given position scarcity, with Cabrera, Wright, and Sizemore right behind him...the usual suspects. I think Tim Lincecum will be one of the best pitchers in the National League once he's called up. All the worries about his health seem unwarranted given his proven resilience throughout college, and his top comparables (according to Baseball Prospectus) are pretty ridiculous: Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan, Dennis Eckersley, Sandy Koufax....

Anyway, I thought it would also be interesting to note that BP listed the top 50 players aged 25 and under by their "Upside" score yesterday (http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6153). Interestingly, Mauer is #1, McCann #4, and Russell Martin #17. That's precisely where I'd rank Mauer, but I doubt many people put McCann that high on the list, and I would never have thought to put Martin that high. I suppose it shows how much emphasis BP puts on position scarcity.

davearm

04-28-2007, 05:29 PM