Jim Callis of BA's 5/18 mock draft

[markpolis]

After talking to several GM's and scouts, Jim Callis has put out a mock draft for the upcoming amatuer draft. Here are some highlights:

1- TB - David Price, LHP, Vandy. Callis states the D-Rays are also considering Vitters and Wieters.

2 - Royals - Rick Porcello, RHP, HS. The Royals took Luke Hochevar last year and will consider doing the same with Max Scherzer if the D-Backs can't sign him before the draft. If the Royals want to stay under slot money they may go with Detwiler.

3 - Cubs - Josh Vitters, 3B, HS. The Cubs have been locked on Vitters for some time.

4 - Pirates - Baeu Mills, 3B, Lewis-Clarke State (Idaho). The Pirates love Vitters but will settle for the best hitting college player not represented by Boras.

5 - Orioles - Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State. Callis states Baltimore wants pitching help after taking Snyder and Rowell with its last two first-round picks. The Orioles are unlikely to do business with Boras but should get their pick of the best college lefthanders, Detwiler and Moskos.

I'd be shocked and disappointed if the Orioles pass on Wieters just because he is represented by Boras. We don't a 2nd and 3rd round pick this year so we should have some extra cash to exceed slot money. IMO Wieters is a talent you cannot pass on and will regret for the next 10-15 years.

OTHER INTERESTING NOTES: Callis has Wieters falling all the way to #18 to the St. Louis Cardinals. Callis says Wieters is regarded as the best position player in the draft, but his ties to Boras and the belief that he’ll want a large major league contract may cause him to drop.

The major league contract SHOULD not be a big deal for any club regarding Wieters. It's not like he is a high school pitcher requesting a major league contract. Worst case scenario, Wieters will be ready for the majors in two years. Therefore this should be a non-issue.

With the 6th pick, Callis has the Nationals selecting Max Scherzer. Mike Rizzo was the DiamondBacks scouting director last year when they selected Scherzer with the 11th overall pick.

With the 7th pick, the Brewers select Mike Moustakas.

With the 8th pick, the Rockies select Daniel Moskos.

Moutakas and Moskos are two players also mentioned as possibilities for the Orioles.

[Greg Pappas]

Interesting first mock by BA. If the Pirates do indeed take Mills (concerns over his defense have me skeptical), the Orioles should take Wieters or Moustakas with their only high pick. It mentions the O's preference to take a pitcher, since Rowell and Snyder have been selected the past two drafts. However, if that is actually their way of looking at it, then we are even more screwed up as an organization than I thought (hard to do). It boggles my mind to think that the O's prefer a position (pitcher)that is far better stocked than our hitting corps. With Beato, Erbe, Olson, Liz, Hoey, Hernandez, Berken and a few others on the way it seems that when comparing our hitters to them shows a noticeable organizational gap.

Take the best prospect (factoring in ceiling/attitude/skill base/instincts, etc...) available, with ties to the hitters :D

[geschinger]

I'd be shocked and disappointed if the Orioles pass on Wieters just because he is represented by Boras. We don't a 2nd and 3rd round pick this year so we should have some extra cash to exceed slot money. IMO Wieters is a talent you cannot pass on and will regret for the next 10-15 years.

OTHER INTERESTING NOTES: Callis has Wieters falling all the way to #18 to the St. Louis Cardinals. Callis says Wieters is regarded as the best position player in the draft, but his ties to Boras and the belief that he’ll want a large major league contract may cause him to drop.

The major league contract SHOULD not be a big deal for any club regarding Wieters. It's not like he is a high school pitcher requesting a major league contract. Worst case scenario, Wieters will be ready for the majors in two years. Therefore this should be a non-issue.

It depends at what cost. If this becomes a situation of deja vu all over again it could be a nightmare w/Wieters. I remember another big time talented GT catcher represented by Boras which turned out disasterous for the Mariners and Twins. The player turned out to be pretty good (Varitek) but even he got screwed in the deal by starting his career later (and reaching FA later) than he should have.

But if that new rule is in effect this draft where if you don't sign the guy you get the same pick the next year I'd roll the dice and be willing to play hardball w/Boras.

[geschinger]

Interesting first mock by BA. If the Pirates do indeed take Mills (concerns over his defense have me skeptical), the Orioles should take Wieters or Moustakas with their only high pick. It mentions the O's preference to take a pitcher, since Rowell and Snyder have been selected the past two drafts. However, if that is actually their way of looking at it, then we are even more screwed up as an organization than I thought (hard to do). It boggles my mind to think that the O's prefer a position (pitcher)that is far better stocked than our hitting corps. With Beato, Erbe, Olson, Liz, Hoey, Hernandez, Berken and a few others on the way it seems that when comparing our hitters to them shows a noticeable organizational gap.

Take the best prospect (factoring in ceiling/attitude/skill base/instincts, etc...) available, with ties to the hitters :D

I'd prefer them to take a hitter all things being equal but we still do have a shortage of pitching prospects. While the lack of hitters is even more pronounced one could argue that you'd bring a lot more talent into the organization by drafting the pitcher and then having the flexibility to trade a guy like Bedard for a package of young hitting talent.

[hoosiers]

It really is wide open. Guys like Mills moving into the top 10.

Based on all the articles I am seeing, the ONLY two guys who seem guaranteed to be gone by the time we draft are Price and Vitters.

It appears we will have a short at nearly everyone else. It seems to me that we should be focusing on Wieters, Porcello and Detwiler.

I think suggestions that we need a pitcher because the last two drafts we chose HS bats in the first round is speculation that is not appropriate. We've walked out of the past two drafts with Olson, Erbe and Beato. Pretty impressive, IMO. We also do not need any "fast moving" guys. Let's just keep stocking the system with the best players and good things will happen.

Regarding the extra $ we have due to not having picks in the second and third round, I'd rather spend it on a top talent who slips into the fourth round than spend $4M on the fifth pick.

[Fairfax Bird]

5 - Orioles - Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State. Callis states Baltimore wants pitching help after taking Snyder and Rowell with its last two first-round picks. The Orioles are unlikely to do business with Boras but should get their pick of the best college lefthanders, Detwiler and Moskos.



What is Callis thinking? We have a ton of good young pitching. We need hitters, impact players. If Weiters is there and we don't take him.:mad:

[markpolis]

But if that new rule is in effect this draft where if you don't sign the guy you get the same pick the next year I'd roll the dice and be willing to play hardball w/Boras.

The rule is in effect and another good reason to roll the dice on Wieters.

I had forgotten that Varitek went to Georgia Tech. It's interesting because the one player Wieters reminds me of is Varitek. Both switch hit and have good power. Although I believe Varitek was stronger defensively coming out of college and Wieters is a slightly better hitter.

[RVAbird]

What is Callis thinking? We have a ton of good young pitching. We need hitters, impact players. If Weiters is there and we don't take him.:mad:

Unfortunately, this isn't just Callis' opinion. I've seen this idea about the Orioles going after pitching stated in several articles. I hope it's just a general misconception, but I'm afraid it might be the truth. It's pretty baffling to me.

[geschinger]

Unfortunately, this isn't just Callis' opinion. I've seen this idea about the Orioles going after pitching stated in several articles. I hope it's just a general misconception, but I'm afraid it might be the truth. It's pretty baffling to me.

I believe that the biggest misconception about the Orioles is that there is enogh pitching in the system. There isn't, not by a long shot. Problem is we're in even worse shape when it comes to bats which is why I'd prefer a bat but that doesn't negate the fact that we still need (alot) more high quality pitching in the system.

[RVAbird]

I believe that the biggest misconception about the Orioles is that there is enogh pitching in the system. There isn't, not by a long shot. Problem is we're in even worse shape when it comes to bats which is why I'd prefer a bat but that doesn't negate the fact that we still need (alot) more high quality pitching in the system.

Right. I understand that we badly need talented pitching in our system, insofaras we badly need talent in our system in general. But if a system is generally deficient, shouldn't our priority be to address the greatest deficiency (position players) first?

[geschinger]

Right. I understand that we badly need talented pitching in our system, insofaras we badly need talent in our system in general. But if a system is generally deficient, shouldn't our priority be to address the greatest deficiency (position players) first?

All things being equal, sure. But if there is a pitcher there that they like better than the hitters available we shouldn't hesitate. But I do believe that this discussion and the predictions are all academic as I believe Jordan will take whomever he thinks is the best player* regardless of position.

* best signable player

[Jammer7]

The rule is in effect and another good reason to roll the dice on Wieters.

I had forgotten that Varitek went to Georgia Tech. It's interesting because the one player Wieters reminds me of is Varitek. Both switch hit and have good power. Although I believe Varitek was stronger defensively coming out of college and Wieters is a slightly better hitter.

Actually, Wieters is a much more advanced hitter at this stage than Varitek was and his arm is significantly stronger than Varitek's was. Varitek may have been just a bit better as a receiver, but not by much in college. To me, Varitek's biggest strength was always his competitiveness and leadership. I haven't seen Wieters enough to say he is anywhere near Varitek there, and I haven't read anything good or bad on that either.

[RayFink1e]

I saw Wieters play Florida State on TV the other day. He look like a helluva player to me. Game seemed kinda easy to him

[Icebird]

I still wonder if the D-Rays won't pass on Price and take one of their other "considerations."

Maybe the Brazelton experience is still a hard pill to swallow (and after all, Vandy is just up the road a little from Brazelton's Middle Tennessee State U. No, there's no real relevance or connection there at all, but I'm just sayin'...)

[orioole28]

I believe that the biggest misconception about the Orioles is that there is enogh pitching in the system. There isn't, not by a long shot. Problem is we're in even worse shape when it comes to bats which is why I'd prefer a bat but that doesn't negate the fact that we still need (alot) more high quality pitching in the system.

What are you talking about?? You don't consider Olson, Beato, Erbe, Hernandez, Spoone, and Liz prospects? I might even be missing some. And thats not considering Penn. Bergeson also pitching well and lets not forget Hoey. I think it's stronger than most organization.

[AgentOrange]

What are you talking about?? You don't consider Olson, Beato, Erbe, Hernandez, Spoone, and Liz prospects? I might even be missing some. And thats not considering Penn. Bergeson also pitching well and lets not forget Hoey. I think it's stronger than most organization.

The point is, and I don't want to speak out of turn, that you can't have enough pitching.

Look at Penn this year, we had great hopes for him and he got hurt. Same with Loewen. Same with Benson (who is not a prospect, but it proves a point). You need more than 5 starters on your team to get through the season. All the guys you mentioned are at different points of their collective minor league careers. IT is always good to stock the system because you win with pitching. Also, getting hitters on the FA market is more of a sure thing than signing good pitching. Not only is hitting going to always be more availible, it is going to be more consistant from team to team once you sign that player.

I don't really know enough about these prospects, but a pitcher wouldn't be a bad thing either...

[geschinger]

The point is, and I don't want to speak out of turn, that you can't have enough pitching.

Look at Penn this year, we had great hopes for him and he got hurt. Same with Loewen. Same with Benson (who is not a prospect, but it proves a point). You need more than 5 starters on your team to get through the season. All the guys you mentioned are at different points of their collective minor league careers. IT is always good to stock the system because you win with pitching. Also, getting hitters on the FA market is more of a sure thing than signing good pitching. Not only is hitting going to always be more availible, it is going to be more consistant from team to team once you sign that player.

I don't really know enough about these prospects, but a pitcher wouldn't be a bad thing either...

Well said. We do have a nice collection of pitching prospects, just nowhere near enough of 'em. Personally I'd like to see us get another big bat but if there is a pitcher there at #5 that Jordan likes better than the bats available there should be no hesitation.

[Go_Os]

The point is, and I don't want to speak out of turn, that you can't have enough pitching.

Look at Penn this year, we had great hopes for him and he got hurt. Same with Loewen. Same with Benson (who is not a prospect, but it proves a point). You need more than 5 starters on your team to get through the season. All the guys you mentioned are at different points of their collective minor league careers. IT is always good to stock the system because you win with pitching. Also, getting hitters on the FA market is more of a sure thing than signing good pitching. Not only is hitting going to always be more availible, it is going to be more consistant from team to team once you sign that player.

I don't really know enough about these prospects, but a pitcher wouldn't be a bad thing either...


The issue with this year's draft is that they isn't a guy like Lincecum who is a potential #1 starter who can come in and be in the rotation next year. The best arms are HS pitchers, who I wouldn't mind taking (Porcello, Harvey or Beavan). Detweiler, Moskos and Brackman look like #3 starters to me, and I don't want to use the 5th overall pick for a #3 starter. Let's get an impact bat or a future ace. I don't want the Os to have to settle for inferior talent because they're worried about Boras or reaching for a college pitcher who has limited upside. Then again, who am I kidding? Angelos is in charge. :mad:

[birdtown]

This is slightly off topic, but where do you all think Tony Watson will go this year? I just looked up his stats and his ERA is just under 4.00. Despite some of our grumblings, it looks like the O's FO made a decent decision in not giving him 2nd round money last year.

[geschinger]

Then again, who am I kidding? Angelos is in charge. :mad:

If you think Angelos will have that big of an impact on whom we select then my money is on the O's taking Moustakas who I am assuming has a Greek background.

I believe Jordan will be given the lattitude to select whom he wants and I also believe that if we pass a guy like Wieters due to signability that it isn't necessarily because of an edict from Angelos. From what was said about the Tony Watson situation the implication I got is that there are limits to what Jordan thinks a player is worth. I have no idea what Boras is demanding but say it's something ridiculous like a $10m ML deal I would not hold it against the O's to pass him up. However w/the new rule in effect I also wouldn't mind picking him and playing hardball w/Boras. If it doesn't work out we'll take the #5 pick next year to go along w/our regular 1st rounder.

[birdtown]

I couldn't agree more!! MLB has given teams the leverage to select the best player available now that there is assurance of a similar pick in the following draft if a team is unable to sign their 1st round pick.

There is no doubt that Weiters is going to command above slot money, but if the price tag is outrageous, we tell him good luck at GT next year.

I don't think you can go wrong. I think there will be some pretty good college bats in next year's draft (3B from Vandy, 1B from SC, Jemile Weeks from Miami......and so on).

[geschinger]

I couldn't agree more!! MLB has given teams the leverage to select the best player available now that there is assurance of a similar pick in the following draft if a team is unable to sign their 1st round pick.

There is no doubt that Weiters is going to command above slot money, but if the price tag is outrageous, we tell him good luck at GT next year.

I don't think you can go wrong. I think there will be some pretty good college bats in next year's draft (3B from Vandy, 1B from SC, Jemile Weeks from Miami......and so on).

It is definately something I would consider - playing hardball w/a Boras client but there are also good arguments to avoid the mess altogether if you have another player on your board ranked similarly.

A team like the O's has a long way to go to being at the point where they have a solid ML team with a great minor league pipeline. After the #5 pick we have to wait until another 125 guys or so come off the board before we pick again. I think a good argument could be made that we'd be much better off with getting a guy into the system to start developing even if he was ranked slightly lower rather than the very real possibility of having to wait a year to get that top of the draft type talent into the system. Considering how much we've crippled Jordan in this draft if we can't sign the #5 pick there is the very real possibility that our farm system is worse relative to the rest of the league this time next year than it is this year regardless of how successful Jordan is.

[hoosiers]

The issue with this year's draft is that they isn't a guy like Lincecum who is a potential #1 starter who can come in and be in the rotation next year.

Well, we didn't take Lincecum when we was available in our draft spot anyway!

I like Agent Orange's post above about not having enough pitching. Number 3/4 starters like Benson and Paul Byrd command $7+M in multi-year deals nowadays. I'd have little problem if we took a pitcher with the fifth overall pick.

The only issue I have is that I think it is more difficult to find a quality bat where our second round pick is than a quality arm - Jordan's discovery of Tripp not included. It's easier to find guys like Berken and David Hernandez after the third round than a plus bat, IMO.

[orioole28]

The point is, and I don't want to speak out of turn, that you can't have enough pitching.

Look at Penn this year, we had great hopes for him and he got hurt. Same with Loewen. Same with Benson (who is not a prospect, but it proves a point). You need more than 5 starters on your team to get through the season. All the guys you mentioned are at different points of their collective minor league careers. IT is always good to stock the system because you win with pitching. Also, getting hitters on the FA market is more of a sure thing than signing good pitching. Not only is hitting going to always be more availible, it is going to be more consistant from team to team once you sign that player.

I don't really know enough about these prospects, but a pitcher wouldn't be a bad thing either...

You're right, but to say that we don't have pitching in our organization, I take offense to that. We have quality arms in our organization that would match up with any organization. With our 5th pick we need to make sure it's a quality pick thats will help us sooner that later. I would take Weitters(sp) in a minute and also Moutakas. Remember we don't have a 2nd and 3rd round pick so the money shouldn't be an issue, right?::rolleyes:

[davearm]

You're right, but to say that we don't have pitching in our organization, I take offense to that. We have quality arms in our organization that would match up with any organization. With our 5th pick we need to make sure it's a quality pick thats will help us sooner that later. I would take Weitters(sp) in a minute and also Moutakas. Remember we don't have a 2nd and 3rd round pick so the money shouldn't be an issue, right?::rolleyes:
You'll probably be surprised to learn that Nate Silver of BaseballProspectus ranks the O's young pitching as being in the bottom third of MLB using three different measures.

The first measure looks at the quality of "true prospects" in the minors. O's pitching ranked 26th.

The second looks as the quality of "25 and under talent", majors + minors. O's pitching ranked 23rd.

The third looks at "total talent stock" without the restrictions that applied to the first two measures. O's pitching ranked 20th.

Here's (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6153) the article.

[Ruzious]

What are you talking about?? You don't consider Olson, Beato, Erbe, Hernandez, Spoone, and Liz prospects? I might even be missing some. And thats not considering Penn. Bergeson also pitching well and lets not forget Hoey. I think it's stronger than most organization.
I concur. I'd call our stock of minor league pitching decent, with the need for outstanding position prospects clearly greater.

[davearm]

I concur. I'd call our stock of minor league pitching decent, with the need for outstanding position prospects clearly greater.
FWIW, in the article I just cited, the O's hitting ranked a shade better than their pitching in all three measures.

[AgentOrange]

You're right, but to say that we don't have pitching in our organization, I take offense to that. We have quality arms in our organization that would match up with any organization. With our 5th pick we need to make sure it's a quality pick thats will help us sooner that later. I would take Weitters(sp) in a minute and also Moutakas. Remember we don't have a 2nd and 3rd round pick so the money shouldn't be an issue, right?::rolleyes:

Why? Where did I flat out say we don't have pitching in our organization?

Talk to Davearm about that one. Not me.

[orioole28]

Why? Where did I flat out say we don't have pitching in our organization?

Talk to Davearm about that one. Not me.

Sorry I quote the wrong person.:eek: I should of quoted geschinger who had said "
I believe that the biggest misconception about the Orioles is that there is enogh pitching in the system. There isn't, not by a long shot. Problem is we're in even worse shape when it comes to bats which is why I'd prefer a bat but that doesn't negate the fact that we still need (alot) more high quality pitching in the system."

[odogs101]

Couple of quotes from the latest BA chat on Detwiler.


Q: James from Springfield asks:
Where do you see Ross Detwiler going overall from Missouri State?

A: Jim Callis: First five picks, most likely to the Royals (No. 2) or Orioles (No. 5).





Q: Peter from NYC asks:
Do you think Baumgarner will be better than Detwiler andor Moskos long term? Would you take the safe college pick or the projectable HS lefty in Baumgarner?

A: Jim Callis: Ross Detwiler still has some projection left too. I'd take him, he's the best of the trio.


Also I can't find it but in one of these chats, he was projected as more of a #2 than 3.

[geschinger]

Sorry I quote the wrong person.:eek: I should of quoted geschinger who had said "
I believe that the biggest misconception about the Orioles is that there is enogh pitching in the system. There isn't, not by a long shot. Problem is we're in even worse shape when it comes to bats which is why I'd prefer a bat but that doesn't negate the fact that we still need (alot) more high quality pitching in the system."

I'm curious as to why would you take offense? While we've got some nice arms in the system it's not like we're loaded. We could definately use more pitching in the organization. I think most of us believe that we need hitting more than we need pitching but the article that davearm links to makes a decent case that maybe that isn't so.

[Sports Guy]

Think the Orioles wish they had Stephen Drew or Jared Weaver right now?

Screw who his agent is, you take the best possible talent and spend the money to get him.

But you have to know what he wants and know if you will pay it...You can not draft a player without knowing that.

[geschinger]

Think the Orioles wish they had Stephen Drew or Jared Weaver right now?

Screw who his agent is, you take the best possible talent and spend the money to get him.

But you have to know what he wants and know if you will pay it...You can not draft a player without knowing that.


The problem is that no team would or should be willing to pay what Boras will ask for. The question is will Boras compromise enough before the player goes back into the draft pool. Sometimes it works out ok (Drew/Weaver) and sometimes it doesn't (Varitek/JD Drew). But regardless its going to be a battle as we can't know at draft time which players Boras is willing to compromise with and which ones he's not.

[TyCobb]

The problem is that no team would or should be willing to pay what Boras will ask for. The question is will Boras compromise enough before the player goes back into the draft pool. Sometimes it works out ok (Drew/Weaver) and sometimes it doesn't (Varitek/JD Drew). But regardless its going to be a battle as we can't know at draft time which players Boras is willing to compromise with and which ones he's not.

I sorta agree. I just want the O's to go with the best talent available they can sign.

[Sports Guy]

The problem is that no team would or should be willing to pay what Boras will ask for. The question is will Boras compromise enough before the player goes back into the draft pool. Sometimes it works out ok (Drew/Weaver) and sometimes it doesn't (Varitek/JD Drew). But regardless its going to be a battle as we can't know at draft time which players Boras is willing to compromise with and which ones he's not.

Tough...They do anyway.

If Weiters is the guy you want and you think he can shoot through the system and start here by the time Ramon is gone(or before if you move Ramon), then you draft him.

MLB needs to change the salary structure of the draft like the NBA eventually did...Until that happens, you deal with this.

One thing i will say...For those saying we have the money because of no second or third rounder, i would prefer them to spread the money out and draft guys who dropped in the draft into the later rounds than blow their wad on one guy in the first round.

[geschinger]

Tough...They do anyway.

If Weiters is the guy you want and you think he can shoot through the system and start here by the time Ramon is gone(or before if you move Ramon), then you draft him.


That is the thing, they don't. Jeff Weaver was asking for a Prior like $10m package at the begining. It dropped to $6m than $5.5m and he eventually signed ($4m bonus) for less than half of what he intially demanded. The Angels held firm and Boras/Weaver compromised.

Likewise, Stephen Drew was demanding a deal similar to the deal that Teixeira signed (~9.5m in guaranteed money). He ended up with a $4m bonus and $5.5m guranteed.

The Angels and DBacks got lucky that with Jared Weaver and Drew that Boras decided that getting their careers started was more important than trying to fleece the respective teams. The problem is when you draft a Boras client you have no idea if compromise is possible or if Boras would rather send the player back into the draft than take a penny less than what he demands.

It's a crapshoot... Because Boras failed to get the monster bonuses w/Drew and Weaver does he feel he has to be tougher and make it much more likely that Weiters ends up more like Varitek and JD Drew? Or is Weiters more likely to compromise like Stephen Drew and Weaver. It's a tough call.



MLB needs to change the salary structure of the draft like the NBA eventually did...Until that happens, you deal with this.


I could not agree more.

[bigbird]

I'm hearing Max Scherzer ia a player on our list at #5.

[clapdiddy]

I'm hearing Max Scherzer ia a player on our list at #5.
Wow...even though he's a Boras client? This guy sounds like a stud who could probably make it to the majors very quickly.

[geschinger]

I'm hearing Max Scherzer ia a player on our list at #5.

Interesting. Wouldn't be my first choice.

I honestly don't know a lot about him but this blog entry has a couple of tidbits I find troubling:

Scherzer Dominates Sports (http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=32)



“He was throwing 92-98, but it was straight,” the scout said. “The slider was still a below-average pitch, and the prevailing word was that he better take Arizona’s money.”




Few details have emerged from Scherzer’s negotiations with the Diamondbacks. The club is believed to have made an offer in the $3 million range, while Scherzer and agent Scott Boras are thought to be seeking roughly twice as much, probably in the form of a big league contract.

[RayFink1e]

Think the Orioles wish they had Stephen Drew or Jared Weaver right now?

Screw who his agent is, you take the best possible talent and spend the money to get him.

But you have to know what he wants and know if you will pay it...You can not draft a player without knowing that.


Ive been saying this all along. Amen.

Take the best player. Why draft a #2 or 3 starter with the 5th pick? That doesnt make much sense to me

[Greg Pappas]

FYI > Draft date= Thursday, June 7th at 2pm, live on ESPN2.

Took me forever to find out what time :D

[section18]

I would take the best hitter or best LHP. You can't go wrong with Detwiler. Wieters is an interesting player from GT. Some say that Tampa is considering taking him with their 1st pick instead of Price. The mock draft posted on Friday by Callis says he could slip to 17? Not a chance. He is rated in most mock drafts as a top 5 pick. Wieters or Moustakas would be my first choice. Angelos will push for Moustakas because of his Greek heritage and the fact that he is another future star like Markakis. If both are gone I would take Detwiler. Maybe a miracle will happen and Price will slip to us with the 5th pick. Stranger things have happened.

We will get another outstanding young player with this pick. Would we take Rick Porcello, right handed power pitcher with number 5 if Price, Vitters, Wieters and Detwiler are gone in the first 4 picks, or do we go with Moustakas? Tough decision. I would go with Moustakas because he is an everyday player at short. He could also move to 1B.

[markpolis]

I would take the best hitter or best LHP. You can't go wrong with Detwiler. Wieters is an interesting player from GT. Some say that Tampa is considering taking him with their 1st pick instead of Price. The mock draft posted on Friday by Callis says he could slip to 17? Not a chance. He is rated in most mock drafts as a top 5 pick. Wieters or Moustakas would be my first choice. Angelos will push for Moustakas because of his Greek heritage and the fact that he is another future star like Markakis. If both are gone I would take Detwiler. Maybe a miracle will happen and Price will slip to us with the 5th pick. Stranger things have happened.

We will get another outstanding young player with this pick. Would we take Rick Porcello, right handed power pitcher with number 5 if Price, Vitters, Wieters and Detwiler are gone in the first 4 picks, or do we go with Moustakas? Tough decision. I would go with Moustakas because he is an everyday player at short. He could also move to 1B.

He plays SS on his high school team, just as Rowell and Snyder did in high school. Moustakas does not project to be a SS in professional baseball.

If you (the Orioles) are projecting Moustakas as a firstbasemen in the pros, then there is no way you take him at #5.

[Wingman]

The strength of our minor league pitching is moot. To me, with your first round pick you always need to draft the best player available, regardless of the "needs" or your organization, especially when you're pick is as low as ours (5th) and no 2nd or 3rd round pick.

[Greg Pappas]

The strength of our minor league pitching is moot. To me, with your first round pick you always need to draft the best player available, regardless of the "needs" or your organization, especially when you're pick is as low as ours (5th) and no 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Agreed, with my only caveat being that ties go to the hitters. :D

I can't imagine there would ever be a 'tie', but my point is that I'd prefer a hitter with all things being equal.

[odogs101]

This is slightly off topic, but where do you all think Tony Watson will go this year? I just looked up his stats and his ERA is just under 4.00. Despite some of our grumblings, it looks like the O's FO made a decent decision in not giving him 2nd round money last year.

Here is a scouting report on him for the draft this year. Below average stuff across the board but good command.

If I had to guess, I would say he goes back for his senior year.

He did nothing to help himself this year and may have actually hurt his stock.


http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=watson

[Greg Pappas]

He plays SS on his high school team, just as Rowell and Snyder did in high school. Moustakas does not project to be a SS in professional baseball.

If you (the Orioles) are projecting Moustakas as a firstbasemen in the pros, then there is no way you take him at #5.

Mark, for once I take issue with a post of yours... :eek:

Many fine 1B have been selected early in the 1st-round of the draft and have been bonafide all-star caliber players (or projected to be). The following are first baseman that were selected high in the 1st round since 1984:

Mark McGwire (college) in 1984
Will Clark (college) in 1985
Frank Thomas (college) in 1989
Mark Newfield (HS) in 1990
Cliff Floyd (HS) in 1992 (pick 14)
Derrick Lee (HS) in 1993 (pick 14)
Todd Helton (college) in 1995
Travis Lee (college) in 1996
JJ Davis (HS) in 1997
Lance Berkman (college) in 1997 (pick 16)
Pat Burrell (college) in 1998
Carlos Pena (college) in 1998
Adrian Gonzalez (HS) in 2000
Prince Fielder (HS) in 2002
Michael Aubrey (college) in 2003?
*Billy Rowell? in 2006 (playing 3B, but many scouts expect him to outgrow it)

Taking a legit projected 1B is seemingly a pretty safe bet (yet dynamic) overall. Moustakas is projected at 3B at this time, but may move later on to 1B.

[B-more]

I definitely agree that we should pick the best player available. I just think I would prefer a hitter as well if the hitter and pitcher are rated about the same at #5. I seem to think we would still be able to get high ceiling pitchers or guys that have a good chance of moving through the system and eventually contributing in the later rounds than hitters. We have a decent track record with some of our later round pitching picks with Bedard being a glowing example. I dont know how true this is with most teams but it seems to be the trend with the O's. It is probably just the nature of how pitchers are and how hard it is to predict a guys stuff to go along with his ability to put everything together. We can probably take some risks and draft some high school pitchers in the later rounds and give them above slot if we go with a top hitting prospect at #5 like Wieters.

[Jammer7]

Moustakas has a great arm and is viewed as a 3B or C in the future. I have not heard anything about him being a 1B. But Mark, even if he was to be a 1B you wouldn't want him? You wouldn't have taken Texeira (or Adrian Gonzalez) a few years ago...or now? I would.

[Greg Pappas]

Moustakas has a great arm and is viewed as a 3B or C in the future. I have not heard anything about him being a 1B. But Mark, even if he was to be a 1B you wouldn't want him? You wouldn't have taken Texeira (Adrian Gonzalez) a few years ago...or now? I would.

We are thinking the same on this one, check out my post just above for a more in depth look at the draft in the last 20+ years and the selection of 1B in them.

All indications are that Moustakas will be a 3B, but with his instincts and cannon of an arm many scouts do think he could make the move behind the plate. If Moustakas could be a solid defensive catcher (big if), then his value would sky-rocket.

[markpolis]

Greg and Jammer,

You both seem to be missing my point. I think much more highly of Moustakas as a 3B or outfield prospect. I have also seen him listed as a catcher but I'm not sure why. (probably because he has a cannon arm - his fastball has been clocked at 97-98 MPH))

All of the other players you guys have mentioned were already firstbasemen entering the draft and yes, I would have taken most of them. At 6'0", Moustakas does not have your prototypical firstbasemen size. Also, as I mentioned before, his cannon arm would be wasted at first. His arm is rated an 80 (highest rating) by scouts.

Again, if the Orioles were to draft Moustakas and project him as their firstbasemen of the future I think it would be a bad pick. That's not to say I don't want them to draft Moustakas.

Overall, I prefer Wieters, but I'd still take Moustakas if Wieters were not available.

[Jammer7]

I don't disagree with you on many points Mark. Moustakas was previously a catcher until this year. He got in better shape and moved from behind the plate.

I have said in the past few weeks that I'm not completely sold on Moustakas' size, power and projections just yet. I'd rather take Wieters if he's available as well. But, if you buy into all the hype and believe in his bat that much then position is irrelevant and you take the guy. Hitters that talented don't come along too often. And in this case, he has a solid reputation as an infielder defensively.

I would also rather not put a promising bat like that behind the plate. Too much wear and tear, especially back and knees. That is why I am against putting Snyder back behind the plate next season. I think it will derail his career.

[hoosiers]

FWIW, Moustakas has moved all the way up to the number five spot on BA's initial top 100 prospect list. That's a lot of movement.

I'm a little weary of guys with all that versatility of talent - he can pitch, hit, maybe catch. With the fifth spot, he needs to hit for average and power. It seems like he is the second or third HS bat in the draft, so he may pass that test. If we were to go with a bat with the pick, he may be the way to go.

I'd have a harder time passing up Porcello than Moustakas, though.

[Greg Pappas]

I have spent untold hours at BA and a few other sites, analyzing the best players in the draft and specifically players not named Price (long gone I'd expect). :D

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/rankings/?rank=draft

One factor, after reviewing the latest BA Top 100 report (link above), that I had been not paying enough attention to is the birthdates of these players. Let me explain: Josh Vitters, Jason Heyward, and Matt Dominguez are nearly a year younger than Mike Moustakas (MM). At that stage of development a full year means alot. While this may seem trivial, it can be a determining factor in these player's projections.

In one year's time, will Heyward have been considered as good if not better than MM? Hard to say, but I can imagine that with their overall packages being comparable as it stands, that a year's development might give Heyward a slightly greater career projection.

Since Heyward is not a Boras client, it leads me to believe that Joe Jordan would strongly consider him at #5. I've posted Moustakas reports before, so now it's Heywards turn: From BA's latest Top 100>>

9. Jason Heyward, of
School: Henry County HS, McDonough, Ga. Class: Sr.
B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 198. Birthdate: 8/9/89.

Scouting Report: Along with Brackman, Heyward has as much upside as any player in the draft. He possesses a rare blend of strong tools and feel for all phases of the game. He draws physical comparisons to Fred McGriff, while his tools are similar to Willie McCovey's and his approach is comparable to Frank Thomas'. Heyward's father played basketball at Dartmouth and his uncle played basketball for John Wooden at UCLA. He led McDonough High to the school's first state championship in baseball as a junior, when he was used as a center fielder, first baseman and pitcher. He'll play right field as a professional, where he's a solid-average defender with average arm strength. He's an average runner. His plate discipline and pitch recognition are outstanding, though some scouts left his games frustrated that he wasn't more aggressive. He rarely misses his pitch, and he shows above-average bat speed and a willingness to use the whole field. He has plus-plus raw power. Heyward will need to lower his hands in his set-up to improve his ability to get backspin on balls, helping his power translate into more home runs.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg and Jammer,

You both seem to be missing my point. I think much more highly of Moustakas as a 3B or outfield prospect. I have also seen him listed as a catcher but I'm not sure why. (probably because he has a cannon arm - his fastball has been clocked at 97-98 MPH))

All of the other players you guys have mentioned were already firstbasemen entering the draft and yes, I would have taken most of them. At 6'0", Moustakas does not have your prototypical firstbasemen size. Also, as I mentioned before, his cannon arm would be wasted at first. His arm is rated an 80 (highest rating) by scouts.

Again, if the Orioles were to draft Moustakas and project him as their firstbasemen of the future I think it would be a bad pick. That's not to say I don't want them to draft Moustakas.

Overall, I prefer Wieters, but I'd still take Moustakas if Wieters were not available.


I now think that I understand what you meant (I hope :D ). You said bad pick, but perhaps meant bad choice of positional projection? In this we agree whole-heartedly.

[birdtown]

avg arm strength?.....I thought Heyward threw 94mph off the mound.

[Greg Pappas]

avg arm strength?.....I thought Heyward threw 94mph off the mound.

I agree with you that he appears to have a stronger arm than alluded to. One interesting note is that just because a player can throw a pitch 60' 6" at 94mph doesn't necessarily mean he maintains that same arm strength/velocity at greater distances, such as a throw from the outfield. It will be an interesting thing to follow. More tools=better pick :D

[markpolis]

I have spent untold hours at BA and a few other sites, analyzing the best players in the draft and specifically players not named Price (long gone I'd expect). :D

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/rankings/?rank=draft

One factor, after reviewing the latest BA Top 100 report (link above), that I had been not paying enough attention to is the birthdates of these players. Let me explain: Josh Vitters, Jason Heyward, and Matt Dominguez are nearly a year younger than Mike Moustakas (MM). At that stage of development a full year means alot. While this may seem trivial, it can be a determining factor in these player's projections.

In one year's time, will Heyward have been considered as good if not better than MM? Hard to say, but I can imagine that with their overall packages being comparable as it stands, that a year's development might give Heyward a slightly greater career projection.

Since Heyward is not a Boras client, it leads me to believe that Joe Jordan would strongly consider him at #5. I've posted Moustakas reports before, so now it's Heywards turn: From BA's latest Top 100>>

9. Jason Heyward, of
School: Henry County HS, McDonough, Ga. Class: Sr.
B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 198. Birthdate: 8/9/89.

Scouting Report: Along with Brackman, Heyward has as much upside as any player in the draft. He possesses a rare blend of strong tools and feel for all phases of the game. He draws physical comparisons to Fred McGriff, while his tools are similar to Willie McCovey's and his approach is comparable to Frank Thomas'. Heyward's father played basketball at Dartmouth and his uncle played basketball for John Wooden at UCLA. He led McDonough High to the school's first state championship in baseball as a junior, when he was used as a center fielder, first baseman and pitcher. He'll play right field as a professional, where he's a solid-average defender with average arm strength. He's an average runner. His plate discipline and pitch recognition are outstanding, though some scouts left his games frustrated that he wasn't more aggressive. He rarely misses his pitch, and he shows above-average bat speed and a willingness to use the whole field. He has plus-plus raw power. Heyward will need to lower his hands in his set-up to improve his ability to get backspin on balls, helping his power translate into more home runs.

Greg,

I've been reviewing the Top 100 and Moustakas' age also popped out to me. What I found most intriguing is that Wieters (after playing 3 years at Georgia Tech) is only two years older than Moustakas.

After reviewing BA's Top 100 List I am even higher on Wieters than I was before. Also, I feel much better about the Detwiler selection. At 6'4" 175lbs., he projects very well.

Some other observations from BA's Top 100:

- Tampa Bay are fools if they don't select David Price. IMO, he is clearly the #1 pick.

- I'd be surprised if the Royals passed on Wieters at #2. They spent the money last year on Hochevar and are willling to spend again this year. If they do pass on Wieters, I see them selecting Detwiler instead of Vitters. They already have Alex Gordon as their future thirdbasemen.

- The Cubs will probably take Vitters if Wieters is not available.

- The Pirates don't want a pitcher (so people say) and don't want to deal with Boras. People project Beau Mills to the Pirates. I'd be shocked if Mills goes here. I think they pass over Moustakas and Dominguez and select Jason Heyward (sorry Greg). People will instantly add Dave Parker and Willie Stargell, along to the names of Willie McCovey and Fred McGriff that have already been compared to the Georgia HS'er.

If the Cubs pass on Vitters and select Wieters, then I believe the Pirates will select Vitters instead of Heyward.

- The Orioles should take Wieters or Detwiler. Whichever one drops to the #5 spot should be the Orioles selection. After reading the projectability of Detwiler, I'd be surprised if the Orioles choose Porcello or any other HS pitcher over Detwiler.

I still prefer Wieters, but after reading more about him in BA's Top 100, I'd be more than happy with Detwiler.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg,

I've been reviewing the Top 100 and Moustakas' age also popped out to me. What I found most intriguing is that Wieters (after playing 3 years at Georgia Tech) is only two years older than Moustakas.

After reviewing BA's Top 100 List I am even higher on Wieters than I was before. Also, I feel much better about the Detwiler selection. At 6'4" 175lbs., he projects very well.

Some other observations from BA's Top 100:

- Tampa Bay are fools if they don't select David Price. IMO, he is clearly the #1 pick.

- I'd be surprised if the Royals passed on Wieters at #2. They spent the money last year on Hochevar and are willling to spend again this year. If they do pass on Wieters, I see them selecting Detwiler instead of Vitters. They already have Alex Gordon as their future thirdbasemen.

- The Cubs will probably take Vitters if Wieters is not available.

- The Pirates don't want a pitcher (so people say) and don't want to deal with Boras. People project Beau Mills to the Pirates. I'd be shocked if Mills goes here. I think they pass over Moustakas and Dominguez and select Jason Heyward (sorry Greg). People will instantly add Dave Parker and Willie Stargell, along to the names of Willie McCovey and Fred McGriff that have already been compared to the Georgia HS'er.

If the Cubs pass on Vitters and select Wieters, then I believe the Pirates will select Vitters instead of Heyward.

- The Orioles should take Wieters or Detwiler. Whichever one drops to the #5 spot should be the Orioles selection. After reading the projectability of Detwiler, I'd be surprised if the Orioles choose Porcello or any other HS pitcher over Detwiler.

I still prefer Wieters, but after reading more about him in BA's Top 100, I'd be more than happy with Detwiler.

As usual we see this about the same.

I would still not be disappointed w/Moustakas at five, although Heyward ius the guy that I feel will forever haunt us if we let him pass (assuming Vitters and Wieters are gone).

My opinion on Wieters has changed a great deal in these past few days. I would love to see him sitting at #5 and would forever chastise the birds for failure to pick him. :D That being said, I doubt he falls to us.

Tampa Bay will select Price, and as you said would be fools not to.

The Royals at #2 are where a myriad of selections are possible. They have had a history of choosing easy signs, but with Drayton Moore running things that may now be ancient history. Hochevar's selection proved that at least for one year the Royals were willing to pay for the top talent. I wouldn't be surprised at all with any of the following players going to KC at #2:
Wieters/Porcello/Detwiler/Vitters/Heyward/Scherzer

As far as the Cubbies go, I think they go Wieters/Vitters in that order.

The Pirates are alot like KC in that their possible selection could come from a much larger pool than say the Cubs or Rays. I started to laugh a bit when you mentioned Heyward to the Pirates because my own personal mock has him going at four as well. :mad: :D

I am not sold on Detwiler, and would be disappointed at his potential selection over what I see as better available talents.

My own mock (only top 5) as of today (What I think WILL happen):

Tampa Bay- Price
Kansas City- Wieters
Chicago Cubs- Vitters
Pirates- Heyward
Baltimore- Detwiler

For the record, if the draft's first 4 selections plays out as I have them above, I would choose Porcello by a nose over Moustakas. I actually have been sitting here agonizing for ten-fifteen minutes over this decision and may revert given enough time. :D

[Jammer7]

Greg, I've been one of Heyward's biggest fans on this board since February. I truly believe he will end up being a stud power-hitting RF who plays above-ML-average defense. Others may have moved ahead of him in this draft based on performance, but his projections are higher as a power-hitter than Moustakas and even Vitters. If he has a very strong showing in some of the remaining showcases, I still think he will shoot up the board to maybe even the Pirates like Mark wrote.

The BA writeup of the top 100 has me feeling a little better about Detwiler, but I have a problem taking a possible #2 starter, who may be more like a solid #3 starter, at #5 pick in a very deep draft. I'm not sold that there is value in picking him or Moskos.

[Jammer7]

Maybe they pick a guy or two like Chad Jones OF or Travis Mattair 3B in the next few picks, two HS'ers who have great tools but may slide due to $$$ or inexperience in baseball. Then I'd be okay with Detwiler at #5, but not elated by any means. There may be others that slide, and we have to make a few of these picks if we are going to give away picks for middle-relievers.

[bej6789]

I think stockpiling young pitching is the best way to go for the Orioles. When the term "Builiding from within" is used, it's not meant to be super specific that a team can't be produced without free agent as well as trades. It would seem to me that the Orioles as of late have had a succesful string of producing good pitchers. Markakis to me seems like a once in a decade type player, and counting on that to happen again is pointless. The more young pitching you have, in general, the better are you off. Teams are a heck of a lot more likely to give away good hitting to get good pitching then the other way around. If you're the Orioles, getting a young pitcher and grooming him would seem like a good idea to me. If he doesn't have a place in the rotation, fine... but make sure it's because someone has raised there level of play to overtake that player's spot. Ship him off to another team and get back a good hitter in return. That's building from within. You're taking resources that you created, and using them to further develop the squad in a positive manner.

We can all learn something from the team at 1 winning drive here. The Baltimore Raven's got to where they are because plain and simple, they draft well. They have a solid nucleus, and they add onto it. Taking the best availible player would seem like an awfully good idea for the Orioles, in this situation as well. Drafting a "good hitting prospect" because we don't have any seems pointless. Maybe we don't "have any" because we can't develop them. What we do have are a fair amount of good pitchers, and as we've seen this year, good pitching can take you places. Our rotation has been great these past few weeks, heads are flying... yet we're only a half game out of 2nd. No matter how far back we are from the Sox, I'll take it. You can't go wrong with having a farm system full of arms.

That being said, I think the best place that we can go is Phillip Aumont (sorry if I spelled his name incorrectly). He's big, he's got movement on his pitches and he has some good command. Yes he's raw, but who cares? Let him sit in the minors for a few years and build some confidence. We've seen what happens with our track record in drafting pitchers as of late, (especially ones from up north)... It'd strike me as stupid to fill another spot just because don't have any good prospects. You can sign good hitting with alot of money, pitching is a whole heck of lot harder to get and project... go with what works.

[Greg Pappas]

I think stockpiling young pitching is the best way to go for the Orioles. When the term "Builiding from within" is used, it's not meant to be super specific that a team can't be produced without free agent as well as trades. It would seem to me that the Orioles as of late have had a succesful string of producing good pitchers. Markakis to me seems like a once in a decade type player, and counting on that to happen again is pointless. The more young pitching you have, in general, the better are you off. Teams are a heck of a lot more likely to give away good hitting to get good pitching then the other way around. If you're the Orioles, getting a young pitcher and grooming him would seem like a good idea to me. If he doesn't have a place in the rotation, fine... but make sure it's because someone has raised there level of play to overtake that player's spot. Ship him off to another team and get back a good hitter in return. That's building from within. You're taking resources that you created, and using them to further develop the squad in a positive manner.

We can all learn something from the team at 1 winning drive here. The Baltimore Raven's got to where they are because plain and simple, they draft well. They have a solid nucleus, and they add onto it. Taking the best availible player would seem like an awfully good idea for the Orioles, in this situation as well. Drafting a "good hitting prospect" because we don't have any seems pointless. Maybe we don't "have any" because we can't develop them. What we do have are a fair amount of good pitchers, and as we've seen this year, good pitching can take you places. Our rotation has been great these past few weeks, heads are flying... yet we're only a half game out of 2nd. No matter how far back we are from the Sox, I'll take it. You can't go wrong with having a farm system full of arms.

That being said, I think the best place that we can go is Phillip Aumont (sorry if I spelled his name incorrectly). He's big, he's got movement on his pitches and he has some good command. Yes he's raw, but who cares? Let him sit in the minors for a few years and build some confidence. We've seen what happens with our track record in drafting pitchers as of late, (especially ones from up north)... It'd strike me as stupid to fill another spot just because don't have any good prospects. You can sign good hitting with alot of money, pitching is a whole heck of lot harder to get and project... go with what works.

A little late I see, but welcome to the Hangout! :)

I agree w/you on some points and disagree on others. I agree that having outstanding pitching talent is harder to come by (for most teams) but loading up on pitching talent at the detriment of positional talent is short-sighted. A balance is the goal of most successful franchises. We should not choose a hitter, or focus on hitting in this draft, if a better player happens to be a pitcher. I advocate taking the best talent available, regardless of HS/College or Pitcher/Hitter. Hence my wanting Porcello over Moustakas (still wavering :D ).

Aumont is a outstanding prospect and merits high praise and consideration for a top ten selection. Porcello is rated by the majority of scouts as a better prospect at this time, but not by much.


Good post and again "Welcome Aboard!"

[Greg Pappas]

Jammer,

Right now, in the following order, I would choose these players if we were selecting #1;

Vitters/Wieters/Price/Heyward/Porcello/Moustakas

You and I see Detwiler about the same; we'd prefer another choice.

[Jammer7]

Jammer,

Right now, in the following order, I would choose these players if we were selecting #1;

Vitters/Wieters/Price/Heyward/Porcello/Moustakas

You and I see Detwiler about the same; we'd prefer another choice.

My top 10 board would rank as follows:

1. David Price LHP - clear #1, polished and advanced
2. Matt Wieters C# - power-hitting switch-hitting C w/ advanced approach
3. Rick Porcello RHP - projects four plus pitches, command of FB, ath. body, poised and mature, a true #1 starter type
4. Josh Vitters 3B - great hitter, is power projection fading a little?
5. Jason Heyward RF* - has power, athleticism and adv. approach
6. Mike Moustakas 3B* - pure hitter, great arm
7. Jarrod Parker RHP - quick arm, mid 90's FB w/ command, savvy and poise
8. Madison Bumgarner LHP - projection pick, mid-90's FB, needs pro coaching to establish secondary pitches
9. Ross Detwiler LHP - solid all-around, a little skinny
10. Matt Harvey RHP - similar to Porcello, just not quite the polish and poise

Just missing are Blake Beavan RHP, Phillipe Aumont RHP, Daniel Moskos LHP, Beau Mills 3B* and Josh Smoker LHP.

[hoosiers]

The more I read on Beavan, the more I do not understand why he isn't rated higher. This guy was a "go to" pitcher for TeamUSA baseball last summer, has a sustained record of success and is a big projectable guy. I also like what I read on Aumont and Bumgarner.

I really like these HS pitchers, but Jordan has not drafted a HS arm before the third round as the Os scouting director.

[Greg Pappas]

My top 10 board would rank as follows:

1. David Price LHP - clear #1, polished and advanced
2. Matt Wieters C# - power-hitting switch-hitting C w/ advanced approach
3. Rick Porcello RHP - projects four plus pitches, command of FB, ath. body, poised and mature, a true #1 starter type
4. Josh Vitters 3B - great hitter, is power projection fading a little?
5. Jason Heyward RF* - has power, athleticism and adv. approach
6. Mike Moustakas 3B* - pure hitter, great arm
7. Jarrod Parker RHP - quick arm, mid 90's FB w/ command, savvy and poise
8. Madison Bumgarner LHP - projection pick, mid-90's FB, needs pro coaching to establish secondary pitches
9. Ross Detwiler LHP - solid all-around, a little skinny
10. Matt Harvey RHP - similar to Porcello, just not quite the polish and poise

Just missing are Blake Beavan RHP, Phillipe Aumont RHP, Daniel Moskos LHP, Beau Mills 3B* and Josh Smoker LHP.

We are similar, my top ten is as follows:

1. Vitters (3B)- Based on scouting reports and my own opinion, Vitters is a better prospect than Billy Rowell was, although very close. Among the best HS hitters to come out of the draft in years. Defense only concern, but it seems to project okay.
2. Wieters (C)- Outstanding projection, experienced smart player, switch hitter with solid power and a good defender behind the dish boasting a well above average arm. Big and a sound athlete for his size (6'5 230)
3. Price (LHP)- A true top of the rotation pitcher, experienced, poised and polished with a remarkable amateur history. Shows power stuff as a southpaw with fine command of his secondary stuff. Safe bet as far as pitchers go.
4. Heyward (OF/1B)- Fred McGriff comparisons seem valid. Power hitting corner OF, maybe a move to 1B down the road, sweet swinging lefty has light tower power and is a solid tools guy across the board. A shade behind Vitters as a hitter, as much potential as anyone.
5. Porcello (RHP)- An ace in the making. Barring injury or other unforeseen events Porcello has everything you want in a true #1 starter. Great velocity and solid command of 3-4 plus pitches. Athletic with solid projection and clean mechanics.
6. Moustakas (3B/C?)- Only Heyward's power can compare to Moustakas. Moustakas seems to be a more advanced hitter at this stage (a year older helps) with plus plus power and solid contact from the left side. Great arm strength which tops out at 97mph, giving him a rocket for either 3B or if a team wishes to really project, behind the plate. As good as it gets in the HS ranks with the bat. Defensive concerns and lack of much physical projection (6' 185) leaves Moustakas a hair behind his two HS mates.
7. Kevin Ahrens (3B) Chipper Jones comparisons may be a little too much for Ahrens to live up to, but his beautiful swing from both sides and power stroke do remind scouts of Jones. He is not the athlete or runner that Jones was, but is a solid athlete with a projectable skill-set. Soft hands and a plus arm project well for his eventual move to 3B.
8. Jarrod Parker (RHP) Tim Lincecum comps seem fair, although he is taller and should fill out his frame better. Outstanding FB, solid CB and avg/plus change-up. Could be the #1 pick in 3 years should he sign on w/Georgia Tech. What's not to like? =)
9. Josh Smoker (LHP) Smoker is a Georgia HS lefty who tinkers during games with 6 pitches. He plays with a low 90's FB and has drawn comparisons to Andy Pettite with his poise and makeup. Hard worker/well liked with an outstanding amateur resume'.
10. Detwiler (LHP) I don't mean to seem as if I am Detwiler-bashing. He is very solid projectable college lefty with plenty of upside, but a shaky junior campaign and thin frame (tried adding weight, has been unsuccessful so far) leave me more hesitant than most. Projects out as a #3 in my eyes, but could surprise. Still, a very good selection at #10.

The next ten includes> Devin Mesaraco (C), Blake Beaven (RHP), Phillipe Aumont (RHP), Joe Savery (LHP) and my draft 'sleeper' (projected as the 36th best by BA) Will Middlebrooks (3B)

[RZNJ]

Here's what I like about Heyward.

Short stroke= More likely to do well against advanced competition and less likely to be a big strikeout guy.

Advanced approach=Will take the walk when he doesn't get his pitch. Another thing that points to future success against advanced competition.

Track Record= Has done well against the best HS pitchers in the country in the 2006 showcase events.

Defense=Ability to be an adequate to better than average as a corner OF or a 1B.

Project=He's not one. He's already advanced. Already has power.

Ceiling=Has big time power potential.

Weakness=It's hard to find one.

[Sports Guy]

Here's what I like about Heyward.

Short stroke= More likely to do well against advanced competition and less likely to be a big strikeout guy.

Advanced approach=Will take the walk when he doesn't get his pitch. Another thing that points to future success against advanced competition.

Track Record= Has done well against the best HS pitchers in the country in the 2006 showcase events.

Defense=Ability to be an adequate to better than average as a corner OF or a 1B.

Project=He's not one. He's already advanced. Already has power.

Ceiling=Has big time power potential.

Weakness=It's hard to find one.Based on what i have heard from you guys, i like Heyward as well...He is the way i would go if Weiters, Vitters and of course Price aren't there.

Porcello is right there with Heyward as well.

One of those 5 will be there when we draft..I just hope we take one of them.

[Greg Pappas]

The more I read on Beavan, the more I do not understand why he isn't rated higher. This guy was a "go to" pitcher for TeamUSA baseball last summer, has a sustained record of success and is a big projectable guy. I also like what I read on Aumont and Bumgarner.

I really like these HS pitchers, but Jordan has not drafted a HS arm before the third round as the Os scouting director.

Beaven is a beast, but the biggest problem scouts have had with him is that his delivery has a lot of recoil and effort. This concerns scouts about potential future injuries. He sure shows a heck of a lot of ability though and barring injury may turn out as good as any in the draft.

[Greg Pappas]

Here's what I like about Heyward.

Short stroke= More likely to do well against advanced competition and less likely to be a big strikeout guy.

Advanced approach=Will take the walk when he doesn't get his pitch. Another thing that points to future success against advanced competition.

Track Record= Has done well against the best HS pitchers in the country in the 2006 showcase events.

Defense=Ability to be an adequate to better than average as a corner OF or a 1B.

Project=He's not one. He's already advanced. Already has power.

Ceiling=Has big time power potential.

Weakness=It's hard to find one.


It would be sweet to grab him at #5.

[Sports Guy]

Where do you guys put Scherzer on your list?

[RZNJ]

Where do you guys put Scherzer on your list?

Not high enough to take at 5. He had injury issues last year. Some projected him as a reliever. He has Boras as an agent. That's already three strikes.

[hoosiers]

Put me in the Heyward camp. He sounds like a Rowell clone with the pitch recognition and plus-plus power - and no Boras.

[markpolis]

Where do you guys put Scherzer on your list?

I don't think we need to worry about Scherzer. Boras realizes there is a very good chance he falls lower than where he was taken last year and he signs with the D-Backs.

If he falls back into the draft I believe he'll go in the 10-20 range.

[bej6789]

A little late I see, but welcome to the Hangout! :)

I agree w/you on some points and disagree on others. I agree that having outstanding pitching talent is harder to come by (for most teams) but loading up on pitching talent at the detriment of positional talent is short-sighted. A balance is the goal of most successful franchises. We should not choose a hitter, or focus on hitting in this draft, if a better player happens to be a pitcher. I advocate taking the best talent available, regardless of HS/College or Pitcher/Hitter. Hence my wanting Porcello over Moustakas (still wavering :D ).

Aumont is a outstanding prospect and merits high praise and consideration for a top ten selection. Porcello is rated by the majority of scouts as a better prospect at this time, but not by much.


Good post and again "Welcome Aboard!"

Thanks for the great welcome, I'm pretty much an everyday visitor of the Orioles talk site to see the latest news in regards to the Orioles. I just don't know that much so I don't post that often.

Back to baseball, however. I think we're thinking in the same way, just with different opinions on rankings. However, there is one thing that I disagree on. A well balanced farm system is certainly best case scenario, but I have to wonder what is the case when the last prospect before Markakis to come up through the system was whom? I'm not too sure, but I think it was in fact Brian Roberts. To me, that shows more than just general bad luck, it shows poor development. Brandon Snyder, for example. What's he doing? To me, if your the Orioles as of now, the rotation is one of the things that you can build off of that they've done a genuinely good job with. I don't think anyone can complain about the enormous potential in regards to Bedard, Loewen or Cabrera. When you throw in the likes of Hayden Penn who to me just seems snake bit, or a guy like Garret Olsen. You're onto something here. Take a look at yesterdays box score, Brandon Erbe... as well. The Orioles have had some success drafting and grooming pitchers and in return the pitchers have turned out well for the Orioles. While nobody expects every prospect that I've named to pan out... some of them are certainly going to be around for the long haul. When you have a surplus of young pitching, it just seems to me that you have so many more options. Thats what the Orioles need, options. They need to win, first and foremost. But they don't really have any options as of now? What are they going to do? Fire Perlozzo... that won't do much. One of Peter Angelos's main issues is not getting a good enough return for something he deems as valuable. With a surplus in pitching, he would hopefully be more apt to dealing off some talent to recieve it. You don't think a pitching prospect or two could land us Andruw Jones, or even big Mark Tex? I think it would along with a few other pieces.

That's what the Orioles need in my un-educated yet very passionate opinion. Places to go besides down... options.

[Greg Pappas]

Thanks for the great welcome, I'm pretty much an everyday visitor of the Orioles talk site to see the latest news in regards to the Orioles. I just don't know that much so I don't post that often.

Back to baseball, however. I think we're thinking in the same way, just with different opinions on rankings. However, there is one thing that I disagree on. A well balanced farm system is certainly best case scenario, but I have to wonder what is the case when the last prospect before Markakis to come up through the system was whom? I'm not too sure, but I think it was in fact Brian Roberts. To me, that shows more than just general bad luck, it shows poor development. Brandon Snyder, for example. What's he doing? To me, if your the Orioles as of now, the rotation is one of the things that you can build off of that they've done a genuinely good job with. I don't think anyone can complain about the enormous potential in regards to Bedard, Loewen or Cabrera. When you throw in the likes of Hayden Penn who to me just seems snake bit, or a guy like Garret Olsen. You're onto something here. Take a look at yesterdays box score, Brandon Erbe... as well. The Orioles have had some success drafting and grooming pitchers and in return the pitchers have turned out well for the Orioles. While nobody expects every prospect that I've named to pan out... some of them are certainly going to be around for the long haul. When you have a surplus of young pitching, it just seems to me that you have so many more options. Thats what the Orioles need, options. They need to win, first and foremost. But they don't really have any options as of now? What are they going to do? Fire Perlozzo... that won't do much. One of Peter Angelos's main issues is not getting a good enough return for something he deems as valuable. With a surplus in pitching, he would hopefully be more apt to dealing off some talent to recieve it. You don't think a pitching prospect or two could land us Andruw Jones, or even big Mark Tex? I think it would along with a few other pieces.

That's what the Orioles need in my un-educated yet very passionate opinion. Places to go besides down... options.

As far as positional prospects are concerned, you are correct in that the O's have had sparse success in developing them for many years. Hiowever, Joe Jordan and Dave Stockstill bring a new player development tandem to the franchise that seems to be working. What has happened in the past should not be an indicator of future projection when the player development situation has changed so dramatically.

We're not completely devoid of positional prospects, as Rowell, Riemold, Tripp, Adams, Snyder, Vinyard and a few others offer us some hope. Given time AND free-reign to choose the prospects they wish, JJ/DS will hopefully offer us all hope with an abundance of pitching and positional talent working their way to the majors. Now if only we would stop losing our high draft picks it would make their job a whole lot easier. :mad:

[Sports Guy]

I don't think we need to worry about Scherzer. Boras realizes there is a very good chance he falls lower than where he was taken last year and he signs with the D-Backs.

If he falls back into the draft I believe he'll go in the 10-20 range.
Bigbird made it sound like we were leaning towards him.

[markpolis]

Bigbird made it sound like we were leaning towards him.

I'd be shocked. Just remember, there is a lot of misinformation floating around regarding the draft.

[Greg Pappas]

I'd be shocked. Just remember, there is a lot of misinformation floating around regarding the draft.

Exactly. I as well would be highly skeptical of Scherzer at #5. If we were willing to deal w/Boras at #5 then other Boras clients would be preferable at that pick.

[Sports Guy]

I'd be shocked. Just remember, there is a lot of misinformation floating around regarding the draft.

I am not sure Bigbird's source is floating misinformation to him.

I hope you are right...I want them to draft one of Weiters, Heyward, Price, Porcello or Vitters.

[bigbird]

I am not sure Bigbird's source is floating misinformation to him.

I hope you are right...I want them to draft one of Weiters, Heyward, Price, Porcello or Vitters.

I said he was on their short list at #5. From what I'm hearing we're going college player in the first round.

[markpolis]

I said he was on their short list at #5. From what I'm hearing we're going college player in the first round.

Wieters or Detwiler.

[RayFink1e]

I think baseball is one of the only sports where you can take the best available player. Why not do it. Paying someone a large bonus will only save us from spending alot more money in FA. Assuming he develops

[bigbird]

I think baseball is one of the only sports where you can take the best available player. Why not do it. Paying someone a large bonus will only save us from spending alot more money in FA. Assuming he develops

This is a major question in baseball. Very good chance he doesn't develop.

[geschinger]

I think baseball is one of the only sports where you can take the best available player. Why not do it. Paying someone a large bonus will only save us from spending alot more money in FA. Assuming he develops

How paying someone a large bonus sames any money in FA. The only way that I can think that it does is it is assumed that by paying out an excessive signing bonus to a draftee that we won't have the money to spend in FA later.

[Moose Milligan]

I agree with SG, we should be taking whoever we want, agent be damned. We're not hurting for money, if this Wieters guy could help us and be at the ML level pretty soon...well, pull the trigger.

I agree with AO's take on the pitching, too. You can never have too much, though I wish we did have a big power bat or two in the minors somewhere...

[Chollie Eckman]

I said he was on their short list at #5. From what I'm hearing we're going college player in the first round.
That probably means a pitcher of dubious stats who will be no more than a middle reliever at best in MLB. Knowing them, the'll shock the world and see something in Brett Cecil that no one else does. #5 should mean no less than a 1 or 2 starter or an everyday player who has at least a 5-10 year career. Not a middle reliever. Picking Moskos, Brackman, or Detweiler will spell the same doom we've seen for ten years. Moskos got lit by FSU a week ago(who wants a player who can't even beat a college team?), Brackman is topping out at 85 now so he's been shut down, and Detweiler just racking up better than average stats against lower than average competition.

If the current scouting staff can't project a HS pitcher better than those guys then we need to find better scouts.

Bottom line is - draft the best talent available. This isn't a needs draft like the NFL.

[hoosiers]

I really don't understand your rants, CE. Detw is pitching to the same competition as Price.

FWIW, Joe Jordan has spent early round picks on the following pitchers - Olson, Erbe, Beato and Britton. All four made their league's top 20 pitchers last year with Olson reaching the AA list a year after being draft, and Erbe and Beato ranked quite high. If Joe Jordan likes a pitcher he sees, I'll trust him.

The only pitchers that I am not eager to see are Moskos, Sherzer and Cecil, but I'll trust Jordan. I think Porcello and Aumont would make for exciting selections. Hitterwise, I would take Wieters, Vitters and Heyward in that order. In order of preference, I like Price, Wieters, Vitters, Heyward, Porcello and Detwiler.

[geschinger]

That probably means a pitcher of dubious stats who will be no more than a middle reliever at best in MLB. Knowing them, the'll shock the world and see something in Brett Cecil that no one else does. #5 should mean no less than a 1 or 2 starter or an everyday player who has at least a 5-10 year career. Not a middle reliever. Picking Moskos, Brackman, or Detweiler will spell the same doom we've seen for ten years. Moskos got lit by FSU a week ago(who wants a player who can't even beat a college team?), Brackman is topping out at 85 now so he's been shut down, and Detweiler just racking up better than average stats against lower than average competition.

If the current scouting staff can't project a HS pitcher better than those guys then we need to find better scouts.

Bottom line is - draft the best talent available. This isn't a needs draft like the NFL.

You can take that too far thogh. You have to factor in risk/reward and sometimes that means taking someone other than the most talented.

As an example, let's say you have two kids talented kids, lets call one Daniel and one Erik. Daniel has unbelievable stuff and he has a ceiling of #1 starter. He may even be the most talented pitcher in the entire draft. Unfortunatley though your scouts say he's got a 40% shot of reaching his potential. Meanwhile Erik has great stuff as well but not quite what Daniel has. Say his ceiling is as a fringe #1, excellent #2 starter but the scouts think he's a sure thing - an 80% chance of reaching his ceiling.

Whom do you take? The more talented (Daniel) or do you pick the slightly less talented (Erik) kid who is much more likely to live up to his potential?

I would argue that the team that factors risk/reward into the equation will end up much better off than the team that goes after the best talent available.

[Chollie Eckman]

I really don't understand your rants, CE. Detw is pitching to the same competition as Price.

FWIW, Joe Jordan has spent early round picks on the following pitchers - Olson, Erbe, Beato and Britton. All four made their league's top 20 pitchers last year with Olson reaching the AA list a year after being draft, and Erbe and Beato ranked quite high. If Joe Jordan likes a pitcher he sees, I'll trust him.

The only pitchers that I am not eager to see are Moskos, Sherzer and Cecil, but I'll trust Jordan. I think Porcello and Aumont would make for exciting selections. Hitterwise, I would take Wieters, Vitters and Heyward in that order. In order of preference, I like Price, Wieters, Vitters, Heyward, Porcello and Detwiler.


Price pitches in the SEC. Detweiler pitches in the Missouri Valley Conference. There is a significantly greater amount of talent in the SEC than the MVC. I'd be willing to bet an All Star team from the MVC couldn't beat the 4th place SEC team(whoever that might be). Now if you are willing to believe a MVC pitcher with good stats can be projected into a #1 or 2 starter in the AL East, OK. I just happen to think there is a huge leap of faith in that logic.

We should expect greatness with this pick. Not just goodness.

[Chollie Eckman]

You can take that too far thogh. You have to factor in risk/reward and sometimes that means taking someone other than the most talented.

As an example, let's say you have two kids talented kids, lets call one Daniel and one Erik. Daniel has unbelievable stuff and he has a ceiling of #1 starter. He may even be the most talented pitcher in the entire draft. Unfortunatley though your scouts say he's got a 40% shot of reaching his potential. Meanwhile Erik has great stuff as well but not quite what Daniel has. Say his ceiling is as a fringe #1, excellent #2 starter but the scouts think he's a sure thing - an 80% chance of reaching his ceiling.

Whom do you take? The more talented (Daniel) or do you pick the slightly less talented (Erik) kid who is much more likely to live up to his potential?

I would argue that the team that factors risk/reward into the equation will end up much better off than the team that goes after the best talent available.


I agree there is a difference in high ceiling vs. talent. Some of the factors involved also are the teams recent success in drafting and on the field in the MLB level. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can gamble more than teams that rely on the draft to feed their parent club.

I agree with what you're saying. What I'm saying is there are duds in this draft already and besides Price what other college pitcher is dominating good competition?

[birdtown]

It is true that Detweiler may not be pitching in the SEC, however, he did excel for Team USA and in the Cape Cod league last summer. I can guarantee you that is TOP competition!

[odogs101]

Here's Jon Mayo's latest O's pick from his Top 20 yesterday.


5. Baltimore Orioles: Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
Rumors continue that they might make a big splash and if Wieters did fall to here, they wouldn't pass him up. I still have a hard time believing that ownership would sign off on that and the college lefties' names keep coming up in conversations about the Orioles. Detwiler is mentioned more than Moskos, so we'll continue to put him in this spot. He'll pitch Wednesday at the Big 12 tournament with plenty of people watching.
Last week's projection: Detwiler

Other notables, he has the Cubs taking Jarrod Parker and Vitters going to Pitt.
Washington taking Weiters, Moustakos at 9 to the Dbacks, and heyward down to 12 to the Marlins.

[AgentOrange]

Price pitches in the SEC. Detweiler pitches in the Missouri Valley Conference. There is a significantly greater amount of talent in the SEC than the MVC. I'd be willing to bet an All Star team from the MVC couldn't beat the 4th place SEC team(whoever that might be). Now if you are willing to believe a MVC pitcher with good stats can be projected into a #1 or 2 starter in the AL East, OK. I just happen to think there is a huge leap of faith in that logic.

We should expect greatness with this pick. Not just goodness.

Wow, I would bet against that one. There isn't that much of a drop off in talent from each league. You are talking about amassing the best players from a whole division to play against a 4 place team in a confrence...

Maybe a D3 league, but not a D1.

[Jammer7]

This is a major question in baseball. Very good chance he doesn't develop.

The same can be said about ML free agents, especially the ones we seem to sign. :rolleyes: As an organization, we have to have the approach that we can cultivate our own players. Draft the best players you can, pay the price and coach 'em. The returns on your money on the ones that make it will be over a longer period of time than the FA market; and it's cheaper.

[ghogan]

Just for anyone wondering who should be the first pick in the draft, Price is now perfect through six innings in the second game of the SEC tournament.

http://live.secsports.com/ba/games/game06/

[Chollie Eckman]

Wow, I would bet against that one. There isn't that much of a drop off in talent from each league. You are talking about amassing the best players from a whole division to play against a 4 place team in a confrence...

Maybe a D3 league, but not a D1.

You can't possibly be serious. I'd even give you odds.

[Chollie Eckman]

Here's Detweiler's stats. (BTW - he hasn't beaten anyone of significance this year)

Player era w-l app-gs cg sho sv ip h r er bb so 2b 3b hr ab b/avg wp hbp bk sfa sha
Detwiler,Ross 2.22 4-5 14-14 0 0/1 0 89.0 64 30 22 38 110 10 0 6 324 .198 5 7 1 0 5

Here's the MVC's top three pitchers.

Individual Pitching g era w-l sv ip h r er bb so
Venditte, Pat CU 35 1.87 8-2 4 82.0 51 17 17 20 80
Detwiler,Ross MSU 14 2.22 4-5 0 89.0 64 30 22 38 110
Mancuso, Ben CU 12 2.25 9-2 0 64.0 65 18 16 17 46

It can be argued that Venditte(who?)is a better pitcher.

HMMMM, alot of low ERA's in that conference. Maybe they don't have any hitters in that conference. Concept.

[davearm]

Here's Detweiler's stats. (BTW - he hasn't beaten anyone of significance this year)

Player era w-l app-gs cg sho sv ip h r er bb so 2b 3b hr ab b/avg wp hbp bk sfa sha
Detwiler,Ross 2.22 4-5 14-14 0 0/1 0 89.0 64 30 22 38 110 10 0 6 324 .198 5 7 1 0 5

Here's the MVC's top three pitchers.

Individual Pitching g era w-l sv ip h r er bb so
Venditte, Pat CU 35 1.87 8-2 4 82.0 51 17 17 20 80
Detwiler,Ross MSU 14 2.22 4-5 0 89.0 64 30 22 38 110
Mancuso, Ben CU 12 2.25 9-2 0 64.0 65 18 16 17 46

It can be argued that Venditte(who?)is a better pitcher.

HMMMM, alot of low ERA's in that conference. Maybe they don't have any hitters in that conference. Concept.
Have you not heard of Pat Venditte?

If not you're definitely going to want to check out this video of him (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8U2xkHOTvvw). Trust me on this.

[AgentOrange]

You can't possibly be serious. I'd even give you odds.

I played College ball for a D3 team and played against D1, it is not as big of a difference as you think it is.

[Chollie Eckman]

Have you not heard of Pat Venditte?

If not you're definitely going to want to check out this video of him (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8U2xkHOTvvw). Trust me on this.

I like Venditte.

Add some "earned runs" to Detweiler and he's not even in the top 5 of the MVC in ERA and we're taking him as the 5th best player in the country? What a joke. He should be dominating that conference to be even considered at #5. Not to say that he won't be a serviceable MLB pitcher, but it doesn't look like he's a #1 or 2 starter in the AL East.

[Chollie Eckman]

I played College ball for a D3 team and played against D1, it is not as big of a difference as you think it is.

So if a HS ballplayer from Illinois had a choice between the Big 12, Big 10, or the Missouri Valley Conference it wouldn't matter where he went because the competition is basically the same? The fields are just as nice? The crowds are the same size? Facilities are equal? Please. So if a guy had the same pitching stats in the PAC-10 as Detweiler they both would basically project the same? I doubt it.

[AgentOrange]

So if a HS ballplayer from Illinois had a choice between the Big 12, Big 10, or the Missouri Valley Conference it wouldn't matter where he went because the competition is basically the same? The fields are just as nice? The crowds are the same size? Facilities are equal? Please. So if a guy had the same pitching stats in the PAC-10 as Detweiler they both would basically project the same? I doubt it.

Again, it sounds like you have no clue. I am telling you the drop off in talent is not near as big as you think it is. Just because a school has a good name, doesn't mean the talent is above and beyond better. This isn't college basketball.

The competition is so close it really doesn't matter, and when you take into account the use of aluminum bats, pitchers are at the disadvantage, in any league.

[Mackus]

So if a HS ballplayer from Illinois had a choice between the Big 12, Big 10, or the Missouri Valley Conference it wouldn't matter where he went because the competition is basically the same? The fields are just as nice? The crowds are the same size? Facilities are equal? Please. So if a guy had the same pitching stats in the PAC-10 as Detweiler they both would basically project the same? I doubt it.
Please find the place where AO says its the same level of competition?

He only says the difference isn't as wide as you would think. Considering he played, I'd say he has a lot better idea of the competition levels than you, unless you've got some history that you haven't mentioned.

[Chollie Eckman]

Please find the place where AO says its the same level of competition?

He only says the difference isn't as wide as you would think. Considering he played, I'd say he has a lot better idea of the competition levels than you, unless you've got some history that you haven't mentioned.


If so, how wide is it? It's not a stretch to believe that bench players in bigger conferences are starters at MVC schools? Is that wide enough? University programs in bigger conferences or traditional schools like CSF or Wichita State are much better than minor conference teams like Missouri State or Indiana State and that all stats being equal the players from the better teams in bigger conferences are better.

If you want to believe Detweilers' stats are legit and comparable find us a top 25 team he has beaten in his illustrious Missouri State career. He's lost to both Minnesota and Wichita State this year.

[geschinger]

If so, how wide is it? It's not a stretch to believe that bench players in bigger conferences are starters at MVC schools? Is that wide enough? University programs in bigger conferences or traditional schools like CSF or Wichita State are much better than minor conference teams like Missouri State or Indiand State and that all stats being equal the players from the better teams in bigger conferences are better.

If you want to believe Detweilers' stats are legit and comparable find us a top 25 team he has beaten in his illustrious Missouri State career. He's lost to both Minnesota and Wichita State this year.

I'm sure there are a lot of starters on MVC teams who would start for schools from bigger conferences. And I have no doubt that the best teams in the MVC would be competetive and probably finish ahead of several of the teams in those so called major conferences. I've seen a lot of college baseball down here in SoFla and I don't see a huge gap between a team like the Sunbelt conference FAU owls and the ACC's Miami Hurricanes and Conference USA's Central Florida, and the SEC's Univeristy of Florida.

[Chollie Eckman]

I'm sure there are a lot of starters on MVC teams who would start for schools from bigger conferences. And I have no doubt that the best teams in the MVC would be competetive and probably finish ahead of several of the teams in those so called major conferences. I've seen a lot of college baseball down here in SoFla and I don't see a huge gap between a team like the Sunbelt conference FAU owls and the ACC's Miami Hurricanes and Conference USA's Central Florida, and the SEC's Univeristy of Florida.


That's why I didn't bring up Florida or California schools. To compare baseball in Florida to baseball in say Missouri is apples to oranges with regards to quantity of quality.

You forgot Stetson BTW. ;)

[NoVaO]

If so, how wide is it? It's not a stretch to believe that bench players in bigger conferences are starters at MVC schools? Is that wide enough? University programs in bigger conferences or traditional schools like CSF or Wichita State are much better than minor conference teams like Missouri State or Indiana State and that all stats being equal the players from the better teams in bigger conferences are better.

If you want to believe Detweilers' stats are legit and comparable find us a top 25 team he has beaten in his illustrious Missouri State career. He's lost to both Minnesota and Wichita State this year.

Very unfair arguments you are making in your case against Detwiler, and I'm not even that big a fan of his.

You bring up Wichita State, who is 13th in the nation. You do know they are in the MVC right?

Against Minnesota, a tournament team, he went 7 innings, giving up 5 hits, 4 runs, 2 ER, 3 BBs, and 7 Ks. Detwiler has a bad defense playing behind him and they scored those runs in the 7th and 8th inning off him. 2 errors by the MSU defense.

Wichita State features a line-up with 2 top-100 college players. He pitched against Wichita twice and here are his lines against him

6 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 Ks (3 errors behind him)
3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 Ks

I'll note that he had a split finger nail that prevented him from throwing his curveball and hurt his command in his second start against them.

Also, Creighton (also in the MVC) is now in the top 25. His line against them:

7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 Ks (1 error behind him and he lost because MSU couldn't score a run)

The MVS isn't a top conference, but it is certainly middle of the pack. ACC, Big 12, C-USA, Big West, Pac 10, SEC, and Sun Belt are all better. The MVC is right there with the Big East and Southern Conferences, going by RPI. Baseball is a different animal from basketball and football. Baseball isn't dominated by the power conferences, though obviously the major conferences for the most part are among the best. Many smaller schools and conferances compare favorably to the power conferences.

BTW, the CAA is not considered a better conference than the MVC, and looking at the numbers of Justin Verlander, Detwiler matches up with him well:

Verlander So. and Jr. years:
7.27 H/9, .15 HR/9, 3.42 BB/9, 10.91 K/9
7.33 H/9, .31 HR/9, 3.66 BB/9, 12.86 K/9

Detwiler So. and Jr. years:
7.06 H/9, .26 HR/9, 4.55 BB/9, 9.58 K/9
6.47 H/9, .61 HR/9, 3.84 BB/9, 11.12 K/9

I believe Detwiler faced better competition than Verlander. Verlander was more of a finished product back then, but Detwiler still has a pretty good amount of projection left. I'm not that high on him, but I'm not really down on the guy either. The arguments about him not being worthy of this selection because of his stats and conference hold no weight with me.

[Chollie Eckman]

Very unfair arguments you are making in your case against Detwiler, and I'm not even that big a fan of his.

You bring up Wichita State, who is 13th in the nation. You do know they are in the MVC right?

Against Minnesota, a tournament team, he went 7 innings, giving up 5 hits, 4 runs, 2 ER, 3 BBs, and 7 Ks. Detwiler has a bad defense playing behind him and they scored those runs in the 7th and 8th inning off him. 2 errors by the MSU defense.

Wichita State features a line-up with 2 top-100 college players. He pitched against Wichita twice and here are his lines against him

6 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 Ks (3 errors behind him)
3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 Ks

I'll note that he had a split finger nail that prevented him from throwing his curveball and hurt his command in his second start against them.

Also, Creighton (also in the MVC) is now in the top 25. His line against them:

7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 Ks (1 error behind him and he lost because MSU couldn't score a run)

The MVS isn't a top conference, but it is certainly middle of the pack. ACC, Big 12, C-USA, Big West, Pac 10, SEC, and Sun Belt are all better. The MVC is right there with the Big East and Southern Conferences, going by RPI. Baseball is a different animal from basketball and football. Baseball isn't dominated by the power conferences, though obviously the major conferences for the most part are among the best. Many smaller schools and conferances compare favorably to the power conferences.

BTW, the CAA is not considered a better conference than the MVC, and looking at the numbers of Justin Verlander, Detwiler matches up with him well:

Verlander So. and Jr. years:
7.27 H/9, .15 HR/9, 3.42 BB/9, 10.91 K/9
7.33 H/9, .31 HR/9, 3.66 BB/9, 12.86 K/9

Detwiler So. and Jr. years:
7.06 H/9, .26 HR/9, 4.55 BB/9, 9.58 K/9
6.47 H/9, .61 HR/9, 3.84 BB/9, 11.12 K/9

I believe Detwiler faced better competition than Verlander. Verlander was more of a finished product back then, but Detwiler still has a pretty good amount of projection left. I'm not that high on him, but I'm not really down on the guy either. The arguments about him not being worthy of this selection because of his stats and conference hold no weight with me.

That's what the rest of the people in MLB want us to believe.
Nice work. Verlander could hit 100. How many players in MLB can hit that?

[geschinger]

That's what the rest of the people in MLB want us to believe.


For what purpose would the people MLB want us to believe that a particular college player is a better prospect then he really is? What is the objective of this conspiracy and how do "the rest of the people in MLB" benefit by making us "believe"?

[hoosiers]

You guys are wasting your breath agruing with CE. Just let him continue to be volatile in response to others and he'll punch his own ticket out of here.

Detwiler's former teammate, Sinkbeil, was a first round pick last year - surprising that such a weak team could generate such talent. How many first rounders did the big Florida teams produce? CE's generalizations border somewhere between ignorant and trolling.

[Greg Pappas]

You guys are wasting your breath agruing with CE. Just let him continue to be volatile in response to others and he'll punch his own ticket out of here.
Detwiler's former teammate, Sinkbeil, was a first round pick last year - surprising that such a weak team could generate such talent. How many first rounders did the big Florida teams produce? CE's generalizations border somewhere between ignorant and trolling.

My thoughts to the letter. I honestly refrain from posting disparaging remarks when possible, but CE disturbs me to the point of almost enjoying it. :D

[Wingman]

Outside of this whole debate about different college level baseball, I hope that we don't pick Detwiler just because he's the closest player to the majors, or because we've picked HS hitters the past 2 years with our first round picks. I hope Peter keeps his grubby hands out of this and we draft the best player available.

[Greg Pappas]

Outside of this whole debate about different college level baseball, I hope that we don't pick Detwiler just because he's the closest player to the majors, or because we've picked HS hitters the past 2 years with our first round picks. I hope Peter keeps his grubby hands out of this and we draft the best player available.

Yeah, I guess Jordan will do the right thing by us, but I agree with you that focusing on college talent is not the prudent thing to do. Take the best player available, the guy with the best chance of being outstanding. I've read many posts that allude to this point and in general I would say the consensus agrees w/us.

[Chollie Eckman]

For what purpose would the people MLB want us to believe that a particular college player is a better prospect then he really is? What is the objective of this conspiracy and how do "the rest of the people in MLB" benefit by making us "believe"?

Uh, maybe because every crappy pick we make makes us worse and everyone else better. Yeah, let's buy the hype that picks the likes of Beau Hale instead of Chase Utley, Chris Smith instead of Casey Kotchman, Wade Townsend instead of Jared Weaver or Philip Hughes, etc., etc.

You guys can join the Kool Aid drinkers and buy the "Detweiler is a legitimate #1 or #2 starter in the AL East" crowd. I don't see it. Flame me if you want. However, I haven't heard a compelling arguement as to why we should take Detweiler over others. If you guys are saying just because Baseball America says so, then why do we have a scouting staff?

[Chollie Eckman]

My thoughts to the letter. I honestly refrain from posting disparaging remarks when possible, but CE disturbs me to the point of almost enjoying it. :D


Greg65 seems like some kind of plant to me who comes in at draft time and talks up a prospect. We take him and when the draft pick blows up in our face he just kinda fades away. Why is it that you only post about draft stuff Greg? Is it your expertise? Is Detweiler your guy?

[hoosiers]

I pay more attention to what is going on with the Os at the draft than any other time of year - though I post throughout the year. There are others like markpolis and Greg who follow college baseball and the amateur draft who pipe up more this time of year than any other.

Not sure what the beef is with that, CE.

[HoodGuy007]

Personally, if we take detwler and are ablr to toss him in High A or AA out of the box, a la Miller, I'll be pretty psyched. Taking him makes Penn that much more expendable, and maybe we can get some proven major league hitting.

[sloppyO177]

You guys are wasting your breath agruing with CE. Just let him continue to be volatile in response to others and he'll punch his own ticket out of here.

Detwiler's former teammate, Sinkbeil, was a first round pick last year - surprising that such a weak team could generate such talent. How many first rounders did the big Florida teams produce? CE's generalizations border somewhere between ignorant and trolling.

When you ask that question, are you referring to high school or college, b/c more players are drafted out from high schools in Florida than from colleges.

[Mackus]

When you ask that question, are you referring to high school or college, b/c more players are drafted out from high schools in Florida than from colleges.He was referring to colleges in his post comparing baseball in "say Missouri" to Florida/California.

[clapdiddy]

I'm hearing Max Scherzer ia a player on our list at #5.
Well...this ain't happening. He signed with the D'Backs as a draft and follow:

http://bdd.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2007/5/31/2986859.html

[Greg Pappas]

Well...this ain't happening. He signed with the D'Backs as a draft and follow:

http://bdd.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2007/5/31/2986859.html

Yeah, he received a guaranteed ML contract worth 4.5 million. The DBacks hava a wealth of talent in their system and a tremendous nucleus of young talent at the ML level as well. This signing goes to show you that they value these young players quite highly.

Personally I would not have taken him, but I am not making the pick am I? :D

[clapdiddy]

Personally I would not have taken him, but I am not making the pick am I? :D

Agreed. I really would hope that Wieters falls to us and we take him. I am so sick of hearing about how we can't deal with Boras.

[markpolis]

Yeah, he received a guaranteed ML contract worth 4.5 million. The DBacks hava a wealth of talent in their system and a tremendous nucleus of young talent at the ML level as well. This signing goes to show you that they value these young players quite highly.

Personally I would not have taken him, but I am not making the pick am I? :D

I believe it was a 4 year deal worth $4.3. This from BA:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/264039.html

The more important aspect of this deal is that many teams are willing to go over slot and pay for the player they want. I really don't feel the new system regarding draft pick compensation will really effect Boras from extorting top dollar from teams.

Given the opportunity, I hope the Orioles take the best player available (hopefully Wieters) and not worry about Boras.

[olehippi]

Agreed. I really would hope that Wieters falls to us and we take him. I am so sick of hearing about how we can't deal with Boras.

I agree....Wieters would be a great catch if he slips a notch or two. As for dealing with Scott Boras, all you need is a little more money than normal....and apparently the O's now have the extra cash. Hopefully they will spend it wisely.

[Greg Pappas]

I believe it was a 4 year deal worth $4.3. This from BA:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/264039.html

The more important aspect of this deal is that many teams are willing to go over slot and pay for the player they want. I really don't feel the new system regarding draft pick compensation will really effect Boras from extorting top dollar from teams.

Given the opportunity, I hope the Orioles take the best player available (hopefully Wieters) and not worry about Boras.

Thanks for the update. Good points as usual Mark. I imagine BA will have a Mock 2.0 out soon and I can't wait. Btw, the latest BA prospect tracker is out and Brackman has fallen on hard times. I never liked him at #5, and now it seems he will not be considered that early anyway.

[geschinger]

I believe it was a 4 year deal worth $4.3. This from BA:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/264039.html

The more important aspect of this deal is that many teams are willing to go over slot and pay for the player they want. I really don't feel the new system regarding draft pick compensation will really effect Boras from extorting top dollar from teams.

Given the opportunity, I hope the Orioles take the best player available (hopefully Wieters) and not worry about Boras.

The new system gives teams a bit more leverage. If this was next year the DBacks might have decided getting as good a pick the following year is better than only getting a supp.

I don't know what Max's original demands were but I've been impressed with how teams have held firm w/Boras in recent years. The problem is you never really know for sure if you have a player willing to compromise to start his career (Jared Weaver / Stephen Drew) or one who is not (JD Drew / Jason Varitek). It's a huge gamble. The decision that the draftor has to make is that when its all said and done, will Weiters eventually sign for ~4m or will he refuse to sign and go back into the draft if he doesn't get the $5-$10m he is demanding. It's easier to take that risk if you get a top 5 pick next year for failing to sign him.

*Note: I am just guesstimating Weiters demands. I have no idea what Boras might be demanding.

[markpolis]

Thanks for the update. Good points as usual Mark. I imagine BA will have a Mock 2.0 out soon and I can't wait. Btw, the latest BA prospect tracker is out and Brackman has fallen on hard times. I never liked him at #5, and now it seems he will not be considered that early anyway.

Greg,

They haven't done a new mock draft, but their latest draft tracker has some other newsworthy moves. (other than Brackman)

Their top 5 prospects are:

1 - Price,
2 - Porcello (previously 3),
3 - Wieters (4),
4 - Moustakas (6),
5 - Vitters (2),
6 - Heyward (6)

I know this doesn't correspond to the teams picking 1-5, but if the Pirates do select Moustakas at #4, then perhaps Vitters would fall to us at #5.

It's also interesting to see Heyward make such a big jump so late in the process. I'd love to see the Orioles select Vitters or Heyward with their pick.

[bigbird]

A thing to remember with the new CBA is if you don;t sign your first round pick you get a comp pick in next years draft at the same slot.

[odogs101]

A thing to remember with the new CBA is if you don;t sign your first round pick you get a comp pick in next years draft at the same slot.


Also the deadline to sign is now in August, so no more waiting all year to see if a player can milk more money out of a team.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg,

They haven't done a new mock draft, but their latest draft tracker has some other newsworthy moves. (other than Brackman)

Their top 5 prospects are:

1 - Price,
2 - Porcello (previously 3),
3 - Wieters (4),
4 - Moustakas (6),
5 - Vitters (2),
6 - Heyward (6)

I know this doesn't correspond to the teams picking 1-5, but if the Pirates do select Moustakas at #4, then perhaps Vitters would fall to us at #5.

It's also interesting to see Heyward make such a big jump so late in the process. I'd love to see the Orioles select Vitters or Heyward with their pick.

Yeah, I saw that info, and seeing Heyward rise is /was expected. We really are in a great position to get one of Vitters/Moustakas/Heyward and I hope Jordan picks one over Detwiler. I still expect Vitters to be gone by #5.

[bigbird]

Also the deadline to sign is now in August, so no more waiting all year to see if a player can milk more money out of a team.

Also no more draft and follows...