Age Matters (when evaluating Rowell, Snyder, etc)

[Jenius]

A lot has been made of the fact that both Rowell and Snyder have been performing near league average, rather than dominating the SAL like many expected (at least for Rowell). Many have (correctly) countered by saying they are young for the league, and must be evaluated differently. I decided to do a little research into average ages and stats for each league we have a team in, so we can have a solid point of reference for discussions like the above. The below are 2007 data (as of this weekend), obtained from minorleaguebaseball.com and mlb.com. Enjoy, and discuss if you like:

GCL Averages (Rookie)
Overall Average Age: 20.0
Average Hitting Stats: .248-.332-.358 (.690 OPS), 4.3 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 3.94 ERA, 0.52 HR/9, 3.70 BB/9, 8.21 K/9

Appalachian League Averages (Rookie)
Overall Average Age: 20.6
Average Hitting Stats: .276-.348-.406 (.754 OPS), 4.4 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.84 ERA, 0.63 HR/9, 3.80 BB/9, 8.15 K/9

New York-Penn League Averages (A-Short Season)
Overall Average Age: 21.7
Average Hitting Stats: .250-.332-.358 (.690 OPS), 4.5 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 3.95 ERA, 0.45 HR/9, 3.68 BB/9, 7.66 K/9

South Atlantic League Averages (A)
Overall Average Age: 22.0
Average Hitting Stats: .263-.335-.398 (.733 OPS), 4.6 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.34 ERA, 0.76 HR/9, 3.42 BB/9, 7.54 K/9

Carolina League Averages (A-Advanced)
Overall Average Age: 23.2
Average Hitting Stats: .261-.340-.393 (.733 OPS), 5.1 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.18 ERA, 0.70 HR/9, 3.74 BB/9, 6.73 K/9

Eastern League Averages (AA)
Overall Average Age: 25.0
Average Hitting Stats: .259-.332-.389 (.721 OPS), 5.0 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.05 ERA, 0.74 HR/9, 3.51 BB/9, 6.95 K/9

International League Averages (AAA)
Overall Average Age: 27.2
Average Hitting Stats: .260-.332-.393 (.725 OPS), 4.9 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 3.96 ERA, 0.78 HR/9, 3.44 BB/9, 6.97 K/9

Major League Baseball Averages
Average Hitting Stats: .264-.332-.415 (.747 OPS), 5.3 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.35 ERA, 0.99 HR/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.55 K/9

[Chollie Eckman]

This should be a sticky.

[ATO UMD]

All of that being said, does this mean guys like Snyder and Rowell will spend the first half of next year at Delmarva again? Although they are both performing above league average, I imagine there would be psychological issues for guys who spent their entire careers dominating leagues only to go on to hit slightly above league average. If both came back to Delmarva next year and dominated, then you move them up.

[DrShorebird]

Hey, I like your thinking and I support what you said. I'll try to drive the point home to management, but I would bet they will move both up if they keep hitting .275 or above.

[Jenius]

Just for fun, my list of who I would promote right now based on their age and stats:

Majewski, Jimenez, and Hale from Bowie to Norfolk
Rivas (when healthy), Finan, and Lonsberry from Frederick to Bowie
Tripp (if he holds up another week or 2), Moore, and Schmidt from Delmarva to Frederick
Clark and Jevne from Aberdeen to Delmarva
Tucker, Binick, Flagello, Gleason, and Williamson from Bluefield to Aberdeen or Delmarva
Kolodny, Lester, McCurry, Odom from GCL O's to Bluefield

This is purely based on merit, not a strategic plan of who would fit where based on roster spots. Just my opinion of who should get a shot at a higher level when there is an opportunity...

[DrungoHazewood]

There's one caveat to this post - the players that drive the median age of a league up are typically non-prospects. The median age of the Appy League might be almost 21, but if you're harboring hopes of being a major leaguer you'd better be out of there long before 21.

Manny Ramirez was 19 in the Appy League. Nick Markakis never played for Bluefield. Neither did Erik Bedard, or many other college-drafted Oriole prospects.

The median age of the Eastern League is 25. If you're in AA at 25 you're, by definition, not a prospect. If you're in AA at 25 you have basically a 0% chance of becoming a major league star. Ok... maybe not 0%, but like 1% or 2%.

What this list tells you is that Rowell, Snyder, etc have less experience than many of their peers. But if they're going to be good Baltimore Orioles their more impressive talents should easily make up for that.

[Wingman]

Based on DH's post I think that if we knew the Median, not the Average age of each level you would have a better idea of the "average" age of each league really is... The few older propects at each level unfairly skew the average higher than it should be.

[Three Run Homer]

Just for fun, my list of who I would promote right now based on their age and stats:
[LIST]
Majewski, Jimenez, and Hale from Bowie to Norfolk

Definitely agree about Jimenez at least. He's only 25. He's not too old to have a Brian Daubach kind of career. Let's see what he can do at Norfolk.

[Jenius]

There's one caveat to this post - the players that drive the median age of a league up are typically non-prospects. The median age of the Appy League might be almost 21, but if you're harboring hopes of being a major leaguer you'd better be out of there long before 21.

Manny Ramirez was 19 in the Appy League. Nick Markakis never played for Bluefield. Neither did Erik Bedard, or many other college-drafted Oriole prospects.

The median age of the Eastern League is 25. If you're in AA at 25 you're, by definition, not a prospect. If you're in AA at 25 you have basically a 0% chance of becoming a major league star. Ok... maybe not 0%, but like 1% or 2%.

What this list tells you is that Rowell, Snyder, etc have less experience than many of their peers. But if they're going to be good Baltimore Orioles their more impressive talents should easily make up for that.
Jon, these are great points. In short-season ball I think this usually holds true, as there aren't too many guys that start in Rookie ball at 21+ and have substantial big league careers. On the other hand, there are a number of exceptions when you get to A ball and higher. Kevin Millar was in AA at 25 and you could argue he became a star (depends on your definition of that word). Snyder may not be destined for stardom, but at this point it looks like he could still project as a useful Xavier Nady or Jason Werth type who could have a solid career. It depends on his continued development, and whether he can stick defensively at catcher. As for Rowell, he is so much younger than the league average that if he manages close to an .800 OPS, he still looks like a future star (at least to me).

Some other examples of guys, just from our organization (at one point or another), who performed only OK at around the average age levels of the league, but still have become solid ML players:
Melvin Mora (.712 OPS, second year at AA, age 24)
Willie Harris (.807 OPS, A, age 22)
Jose Mesa (3.42 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, AA, age 24)
Jamie Walker (4.18 ERA, 0.7 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, A, age 23)
Brian Burres (4.20 ERA, 0.9 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, AA, age 24)
Jeremy Guthrie (4.21 ERA, 1.1 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, second year in AA, age 25)

[blazer]

Part of my personal evaluation of players is based on their age compared to their level of play, using the following benchmarks as an acceptable age:
AAA (25)
AA (24)
A+ (23)
A- (22)
SA (21)
R+ (20)
R- (19)

If a player is younger than the age above they get additional points, if they are older they get docked points, and if they are right on the age they simply have no changes either way.

[orioole28]

Part of my personal evaluation of players is based on their age compared to their level of play, using the following benchmarks as an acceptable age:
AAA (25)
AA (24)
A+ (23)
A- (22)
SA (21)
R+ (20)
R- (19)

If a player is younger than the age above they get additional points, if they are older they get docked points, and if they are right on the age they simply have no changes either way.

I guess Hernandez would get additional points since he just turn 22 in May. He would be the 4th youngest pitcher if he was at Delmarva and he is currently the 4th youngest at Frederick with Spoone turning 22 on 9/16/85 and Bergesen turning 22 on 9/22/85 and of course Erbe will turn 20 in December. All those pitcherss mentioned then are ahead of schedule according to your benchmark above.

[DrungoHazewood]

Jon, these are great points. In short-season ball I think this usually holds true, as there aren't too many guys that start in Rookie ball at 21+ and have substantial big league careers. On the other hand, there are a number of exceptions when you get to A ball and higher. Kevin Millar was in AA at 25 and you could argue he became a star (depends on your definition of that word). Snyder may not be destined for stardom, but at this point it looks like he could still project as a useful Xavier Nady or Jason Werth type who could have a solid career. It depends on his continued development, and whether he can stick defensively at catcher. As for Rowell, he is so much younger than the league average that if he manages close to an .800 OPS, he still looks like a future star (at least to me).

Some other examples of guys, just from our organization (at one point or another), who performed only OK at around the average age levels of the league, but still have become solid ML players:
Melvin Mora (.712 OPS, second year at AA, age 24)
Willie Harris (.807 OPS, A, age 22)
Jose Mesa (3.42 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, AA, age 24)
Jamie Walker (4.18 ERA, 0.7 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, A, age 23)
Brian Burres (4.20 ERA, 0.9 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, AA, age 24)
Jeremy Guthrie (4.21 ERA, 1.1 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, second year in AA, age 25)



The thing I should have said was that most of my point concerned position players. Pitchers are a whole different breed. While taken as a group pitchers will peak at 27 like anyone else, their individual aging patterns often are wildly, irrationally different. There are Hall of Famers who were good from 18-26, others that were good from 30-44, and others who were good from 21-25 and again from 34-41 but awful in between. There are many pitchers who crafted successful careers after being Jeremy Guthrie at 26. There are many pitchers who were great as teenagers and done by 25.

But position players... yes, sometimes you'll get a guy who's pretty good for a while after being stuck in the Eastern League on his 25th birthday. But they're a pretty rare breed. Of all the players who accumulated 300+ win shares as a position player, Sam Rice is the only one who wasn't a major league regular at 25.

[blazer]

By acceptable age, I mean the player could still be some sort of prospect if he was at a particular level. Most of our top prospects are ahead of the curve, some significantly. It is simply a part of the overall picture when evaluting an individual player. Hernandez, Spoone and Bergeson are all doing fine for their age, but if any are to become top level prospects they would likely need to play two levels next season and be ready for Baltimore in 2009 at age 23.

[Fan4Life]

A lot has been made of the fact that both Rowell and Snyder have been performing near league average, rather than dominating the SAL like many expected (at least for Rowell). Many have (correctly) countered by saying they are young for the league, and must be evaluated differently. I decided to do a little research into average ages and stats for each league we have a team in, so we can have a solid point of reference for discussions like the above. The below are 2007 data (as of this weekend), obtained from minorleaguebaseball.com and mlb.com. Enjoy, and discuss if you like:

GCL Averages (Rookie)
Overall Average Age: 20.0
Average Hitting Stats: .248-.332-.358 (.690 OPS), 4.3 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 3.94 ERA, 0.52 HR/9, 3.70 BB/9, 8.21 K/9

Appalachian League Averages (Rookie)
Overall Average Age: 20.6
Average Hitting Stats: .276-.348-.406 (.754 OPS), 4.4 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.84 ERA, 0.63 HR/9, 3.80 BB/9, 8.15 K/9

New York-Penn League Averages (A-Short Season)
Overall Average Age: 21.7
Average Hitting Stats: .250-.332-.358 (.690 OPS), 4.5 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 3.95 ERA, 0.45 HR/9, 3.68 BB/9, 7.66 K/9

South Atlantic League Averages (A)
Overall Average Age: 22.0
Average Hitting Stats: .263-.335-.398 (.733 OPS), 4.6 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.34 ERA, 0.76 HR/9, 3.42 BB/9, 7.54 K/9

Carolina League Averages (A-Advanced)
Overall Average Age: 23.2
Average Hitting Stats: .261-.340-.393 (.733 OPS), 5.1 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.18 ERA, 0.70 HR/9, 3.74 BB/9, 6.73 K/9

Eastern League Averages (AA)
Overall Average Age: 25.0
Average Hitting Stats: .259-.332-.389 (.721 OPS), 5.0 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.05 ERA, 0.74 HR/9, 3.51 BB/9, 6.95 K/9

International League Averages (AAA)
Overall Average Age: 27.2
Average Hitting Stats: .260-.332-.393 (.725 OPS), 4.9 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 3.96 ERA, 0.78 HR/9, 3.44 BB/9, 6.97 K/9

Major League Baseball Averages
Average Hitting Stats: .264-.332-.415 (.747 OPS), 5.3 AB/K
Average Pitching Stats: 4.35 ERA, 0.99 HR/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.55 K/9

Nice information, but you should have posted Rowell and Snyder's age to make the point you are referencing here. Without that information, the point is lost. I presume you think everyone knows their ages.... I think Rowell is 18 and Snyder is 20, but I really don't know.

[orioole28]

By acceptable age, I mean the player could still be some sort of prospect if he was at a particular level. Most of our top prospects are ahead of the curve, some significantly. It is simply a part of the overall picture when evaluting an individual player. Fernandez, Spoone and Bergeson are all doing fine for their age, but if any are to become top level prospects they would likely need to play two levels next season and be ready for Baltimore in 2009 at age 23.

Oops!!:eek: I know you meant Hernandez:002_sbiggrin:

[Zaimoku]

Nick Markakis never played for Bluefield. Neither did Erik Bedard, or many other college-drafted Oriole prospects.

Post Aberdeen. Before Aberdeen, almost all of them played for Bluefield the year they were drafted, with high schoolers going to the GCL. There were a few exceptions, such as Ben McDonald and Harry Berrios, but not very many.

[blazer]

Oops!!:eek: I know you meant Hernandez:002_sbiggrin:

Yes I did...

[Jenius]

Nice information, but you should have posted Rowell and Snyder's age to make the point you are referencing here. Without that information, the point is lost. I presume you think everyone knows their ages.... I think Rowell is 18 and Snyder is 20, but I really don't know.
Actually, my point was to post the data...I just used the Rowell/Snyder bit as a hook b/c if I posted something titled "Average Ages" or something like that, I figured it wouldn't be as appealing. I really wasn't intent on proving that Snyder and Rowell are doing well (though I do believe that), more using it as an example. That said, you're right that I probably should have posted their actual ages.