Top Ten Suprises and Disappointments

[blazer]

With a month and a half to go in the minor league season, I thought it would be interesting to post our top 10 Surprises and Disappointments this season. This of course is very subjective and should be based on how you looked at a prospect before the season, and how you see them know.

Top 10 Surprises:
1. Tripp- Top 15 prospect bairly on the radar before the season.
2. Bergesen- Top 10 prospect becoming legitimate ML starter prospect.
3. Henson- Top 10 prospect turning super athletic ability into baseball skills.
4. Kolodny- 16th round draft pick producing huge numbers.
5. McCrory- Back healthy, becoming ML bullpen candidate.
6. W.Perez- Huge numbers so far this season, can he stay healthy?
7. Doyne- Minor League free agent has proven to be a real steal.
8. Thall- Has thrived since becoming Delmarva's closer.
9. Scmidt-Quality numbers this season, although a bit old for the league
10. Julius- Amazing walk and power numbers for the 33rd round draft pick.
HM: Binick, Moore, Schindling, Rivas

Top 10 Disappointments:
1. Floriman- Toolsy SS witha a .202 BA and 27 errors.
2. Lebron- 61 SO & 36 hits don't make up for a 5.05 ERA & 41 BB in 41 IP.
3. Fleisher- Very poor season has nearly eliminated prospect status.
4. Berken- Has not emerged as premier pitching prospect we were hoping for.
5. Erbe- Ceiling still very high, but very ERA and mediocre overall numbers.
6. Reimold- Injuries halted great start, health becoming major concern
7. Snyder- Former #1 pick starting to come around, but overall an OK season.
8. Fiorentino- No longer a starting OF candidate, may not even be a 4th OF.
9. Hale- OK season makes it unlikely we'll see the 28-year-old in Baltimore.
10. Majewski- While BA has been solid, HR power has not come back.
HM: Stern, Figuerroa, Cash, Martinez

[Chollie Eckman]

Hmmm, Rowell gets a gentleman's "C".

[Chollie Eckman]

I'd put "Every draft pick that signed after the 12th round" as a field pick and put them at #3.

[RZNJ]

With a month and a half to go in the minor league season, I thought it would be interesting to post our top 10 Surprises and Disappointments this season. This of course is very subjective and should be based on how you looked at a prospect before the season, and how you see them know.

Top 10 Surprises:
1. Tripp- Top 15 prospect bairly on the radar before the season.
2. Bergesen- Top 10 prospect becoming legitimate ML starter prospect.
3. Henson- Top 10 prospect turning super athletic ability into baseball skills.
4. Kolodny- 16th round draft pick producing huge numbers.
5. McCrory- Back healthy, becoming ML bullpen candidate.
6. W.Perez- Huge numbers so far this season, can he stay healthy?
7. Doyne- Minor League free agent has proven to be a real steal.
8. Thall- Has thrived since becoming Delmarva's closer.
9. Scmidt-Quality numbers this season, although a bit old for the league
10. Julius- Amazing walk and power numbers for the 33rd round draft pick.
HM: Binick, Moore, Schindling, Rivas

Top 10 Disappointments:
1. Floriman- Toolsy SS witha a .202 BA and 27 errors.
2. Lebron- 61 SO & 36 hits don't make up for a 5.05 ERA & 41 BB in 41 IP.
3. Fleisher- Very poor season has nearly eliminated prospect status.
4. Berken- Has not emerged as premier pitching prospect we were hoping for.
5. Erbe- Ceiling still very high, but very ERA and mediocre overall numbers.
6. Reimold- Injuries halted great start, health becoming major concern
7. Snyder- Former #1 pick starting to come around, but overall an OK season.
8. Fiorentino- No longer a starting OF candidate, may not even be a 4th OF.
9. Hale- OK season makes it unlikely we'll see the 28-year-old in Baltimore.
10. Majewski- While BA has been solid, HR power has not come back.
HM: Stern, Figuerroa, Cash, Martinez

Based on status I would put Erbe as the #1 disappointment, with Reimold #2 mostly based on a missed season, not performance. I wouldn't consider Snyder a disappointment at all. In fact, the second half of this season has reaffirmed his status as a legitimate prospect again. I think I'd put Rowell on this disappointment list. Although he's still an elite prospect, I thinkn 90% of us were expecting much more from him than just an OK season. In my book, disappointment is relative to the expectations that were put on each player. Much was expected of Rowell and Erbe this year, while there were serious concerns with Snyder coming off of last year.

[BoysofArbutus]

Erbe has been disappointing, but I'm not going to give up on him yet, and neither should the organization.

Reimold has been injured, so yes, the injury is frustrating.

Snyder has torn the cover off the ball for the last month of the season, and if you look at the first half/second half splits, he's right on track. 20 in Delmarva is on course.

Rowell is 18 and in Delmarva. Put him in Bluefield (where he would still be the youngest on the team) and his numbers would be through the roof. He should be back in Delmarva next year, then we can judge him. Hardly a "disappointment."

I don't think there were every any expectations for Beau Hale coming into this season and Fiorention was a fringe prospect to begin with. He's a career minor leaguer.

Anybody that was drafted this spring I couldn't put in surprise or disappointment because we don't have a large enough sample size yet. Some of the guys may have been placed at the wrong level. Binick, Julius and Tucker all may be nothing more than platoon players at Delmarva in two years. We don't know yet with any of them. Once they go through Spring Training and have a chance to be evaluated over a full season, we can make a real assessment.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, I'd say Rowell is doing fine with a .750's OPS at Delmarva. I like that he's being challenged and look forward to seeing him succeed there and hopefully do well enough to start next year in Frederick. And if he doesn't, it's not much of a setback.

Good thought-provoding post by blazer.

[Three Run Homer]

Biggest disappointments in order: Erbe, Reimold, Beato, Rowell, Florimon, Ryan Adams, Berken.

Best surprises, in order: Hoey, Doyne, Bergesen, Bascom, Henson, Olson.

Unfortunately, it's not easy to come up with pleasant surprises; this has been an awful year for the farm system. It's pretty sad when two of your best prospects are relief pitchers. I'm not too "surprised" or giddy about overage players like Tripp or Binick tearing it up at lower level, and based on past experience I don't get excited about anyone at rookie ball. The "disappointment" list doesn't even include guys like Brandon Snyder, Val Majewski or Jeff Fiorentino, since the bloom faded off those roses last year or earlier.

[blazer]

Biggest disappointments in order: Erbe, Reimold, Beato, Rowell, Florimon, Ryan Adams, Berken.

Best surprises, in order: Hoey, Doyne, Bergesen, Bascom, Henson, Olson.

Unfortunately, it's not easy to come up with pleasant surprises; this has been an awful year for the farm system. It's pretty sad when two of your best prospects are relief pitchers. I'm not too "surprised" or giddy about overage players like Tripp or Binick tearing it up at lower level, and based on past experience I don't get excited about anyone at rookie ball. The "disappointment" list doesn't even include guys like Brandon Snyder, Val Majewski or Jeff Fiorentino, since the bloom faded off those roses last year or earlier.

Curious to see Beato and Adams on the disappointment list. Beato is having a solid season and really has done nothing to hurt his status at all IMO. Adams has only been playing for just over a month in SA, so it seems a little early to call him a disappointment yet.

Tripp is only 22, so while he is not young for Delmarva, he is not old either. Given the fact that he was not even on the prospect radar and is now a top 15 guy, he has to be a surprise IMO.

[Skywalker76]

Biggest disappointments in order: Erbe, Reimold, Beato, Rowell, Florimon, Ryan Adams, Berken.


I'm sorry but you're not telling me that a 3.33 ERA and 84K in 108IP is a dissapointment. His numbers are not awesome but they are ok. In his last ten games he went 3.12 in 57IP with 46K and 21BB.

[DoobyDoo]

I'm not disappointed with Snyder's season so far. He hasn't been great, but he's improved a lot over last year. He still has a long way to go if he's going to be a first basemen or outfielder, though. It should be interesting to see what the Orioles do with him next year. I think his best bet to make the majors is as a catcher since he'll have to continue to improve at a high rate to be even average offensively anywhere else. It seems like the Orioles will have to make that decision this off season since I don't think they'd want Snyder trying to learn how to catch above single A.

I have to consider Rowell a disappointment. Considering that he's one of the youngest players in his league, he's been decent. Still, if you told me before the season started that he'd have a .750 OPS and five homeruns at the end of July, I would've laughed. I think my expectations were unrealistic for him this year since he’s so young. He’s going to have to show some improvement next year. I’d like to see an .800+ OPS and 15+ homeruns from him next year. While he’s disappointed this year, he certainly hasn’t been anywhere the disappointment that Snyder was last year. Rowell is a year younger than Snyder was last year and his OPS is around .150 points higher. Snyder managed to improve greatly upon that this year, so I expect Rowell to do the same next year.

A lot depends on how Snyder and Rowell do in the last month of the season. If both players kill the ball in August and end up with an .800 OPS, that would be huge. I'd be happy with a .750 OPS from Rowell since he's only 18 years old. I want more from Snyder, though. He's a couple of years older and he needs to produce now. After what he did last year, I'd consider a .760 OPS acceptable, but in order to consider his top prospect status completely back, I'd need him to finish the year with an .800+ OPS.

[Chollie Eckman]

I'm not disappointed with Snyder's season so far. He hasn't been great, but he's improved a lot over last year. He still has a long way to go if he's going to be a first basemen or outfielder, though. It should be interesting to see what the Orioles do with him next year. I think his best bet to make the majors is as a catcher since he'll have to continue to improve at a high rate to be even average offensively anywhere else. It seems like the Orioles will have to make that decision this off season since I don't think they'd want Snyder trying to learn how to catch above single A.

I have to consider Rowell a disappointment. Considering that he's one of the youngest players in his league, he's been decent. Still, if you told me before the season started that he'd have a .750 OPS and five homeruns at the end of July, I would've laughed. I think my expectations were unrealistic for him this year since he’s so young. He’s going to have to show some improvement next year. I’d like to see an .800+ OPS and 15+ homeruns from him next year. While he’s disappointed this year, he certainly hasn’t been anywhere the disappointment that Snyder was last year. Rowell is a year younger than Snyder was last year and his OPS is around .150 points higher. Snyder managed to improve greatly upon that this year, so I expect Rowell to do the same next year.

A lot depends on how Snyder and Rowell do in the last month of the season. If both players kill the ball in August and end up with an .800 OPS, that would be huge. I'd be happy with a .750 OPS from Rowell since he's only 18 years old. I want more from Snyder, though. He's a couple of years older and he needs to produce now. After what he did last year, I'd consider a .760 OPS acceptable, but in order to consider his top prospect status completely back, I'd need him to finish the year with an .800+ OPS.


Rowell is striking out way too much IMHO.

[mikezpen]

That's a terribly depressing pair of lists-can anybody see why?

The disappointments are mostly the older guys and high ceiling prospects we felt were close. and who the organization counts on The happy surprises are mostly lower-level minor leaguers who have a lot of opportunity to be disappointments by this time next year. I get no thrill out of Kolodny or Binnink going ape in class Z rookie ball when Erbe has virtually collapsed, Penn and Reimold are hurt, Rowell hits .270's in low A ball and shows no real improvement, Snyder emerges for a few weeks after a year and a half of doing nothing, You don't have a single position player at Bowie who caould come up here, and you have to import a few decent hitters from outside the organization or your clean-up batter at Norfolk is Brandon Fahey. You have a few young or really low level minor league kids who have had a few weeks of glory.-so who cares? They could very well be fringe prospects 2 years from now.

Frankly, this season and last season too, have been disappointing ones for the Orioles minor league system. I just don't see much progress. They need a housecleaning down there.I shudder to see what happends if they DO sign Weiters and hand him over to the vaunted Orioles player development department. Two years from now, he'll be Paul Bako.

[BoysofArbutus]

Rowell is striking out way too much. Nobody will deny that, but he's 4 years under league average. He's essentially a college freshman batting in the middle of the order in Single-A. If the O's drafted a sophomore out of college, he'd be in Aberdeen right now. So if he's striking out once every four at bats next season, I'll be a bit concerned.

Erbe is 3-4 years under league average and was blowing everybody away up to this point, but he's 19 years old in A+. He was on an accelerated track and would have been at OPACY by 21 if he remained at that pace. A rare few make the rise that quickly, again, relax.

Snyder has had a very strong second half. It usually takes a year to fully recover from a torn labrum and he didn't go on the DL until the second half last year. I was surprised he was even in the order at the beginning of the season. Now he's healthy, hitting well, and back on pace.

The biggest disappointment with Reimold has been his health. When on the field, he's played very well, but he can't stay out of the trainers room. That alone is worth concern and unless he has a second half resurgence, he's definitely out of the top 10 prospects at his age.

I never thought Florimon was the real deal. He was too small and had no power numbers. If he's hitting singles in Rookie ball, he's not going to put it in the gaps in Aberdeen.

How can Olson be seen as a surprise? He was the top pitcher in the system last year and there was even talk of putting him in the pen to start the season. Hardly a surprise unless you are surprised whenever a farm hand plays well on the big show.

Hoey and Doyne, just like McCrory are all getting older and are nothing more than middle reliever options. Hoey has been blasted in his big league stints while McCrory is older than league average and Doyne has been servicable.

Bergesen was a surprise in Delmarva but hasn't fair too well in Frederick and yes, Bascom has been untouchable since the draft, but I won't throw myself at a prospect that's only been in the system for two months.

[srh523]

Rowell is striking out way too much. Nobody will deny that, but he's 4 years under league average. He's essentially a college freshman batting in the middle of the order in Single-A. If the O's drafted a sophomore out of college, he'd be in Aberdeen right now. So if he's striking out once every four at bats next season, I'll be a bit concerned.

Erbe is 3-4 years under league average and was blowing everybody away up to this point, but he's 19 years old in A+. He was on an accelerated track and would have been at OPACY by 21 if he remained at that pace. A rare few make the rise that quickly, again, relax.

Snyder has had a very strong second half. It usually takes a year to fully recover from a torn labrum and he didn't go on the DL until the second half last year. I was surprised he was even in the order at the beginning of the season. Now he's healthy, hitting well, and back on pace.

The biggest disappointment with Reimold has been his health. When on the field, he's played very well, but he can't stay out of the trainers room. That alone is worth concern and unless he has a second half resurgence, he's definitely out of the top 10 prospects at his age.

I never thought Florimon was the real deal. He was too small and had no power numbers. If he's hitting singles in Rookie ball, he's not going to put it in the gaps in Aberdeen.

How can Olson be seen as a surprise? He was the top pitcher in the system last year and there was even talk of putting him in the pen to start the season. Hardly a surprise unless you are surprised whenever a farm hand plays well on the big show.

Hoey and Doyne, just like McCrory are all getting older and are nothing more than middle reliever options. Hoey has been blasted in his big league stints while McCrory is older than league average and Doyne has been servicable.

Bergesen was a surprise in Delmarva but hasn't fair too well in Frederick and yes, Bascom has been untouchable since the draft, but I won't throw myself at a prospect that's only been in the system for two months.


Hoey, Doyne and McCrory are 24, 25, and 25. I wouldnt say they are getting older and all 3 have been lights out this year.Hoey has had all of 10 innings in the big league. I know a guy named Guthrie who got blasted his 1st cple attempts in the bigs too.

These are 3 guys that might allow the Orioles to shed $40 million in payroll next year!

[Chollie Eckman]

Rowell striking out one in every 3+ AB's is NOT a positive sign IMHO. If he's got talent he needs to be putting wood on the ball and putting it in play or justify those k's by putting it out of the park more regularly.

We all expect him to eventually be in the majors right? What percent of the pitchers he's facing night in night out are going to join him in the majors? 10? 15? Even if you went to 20% that means that 80% of the pitchers he faces are not major league caliber pitchers.

He needs to be doing better. I'm rooting for him.

[NoVaO]

I'll give my take:

Disappointments
1. Erbe - I know he is young, but the way he is getting hammered is very concerning...I'm sure we all expected much better than this

2. Reimold/Penn Health Issues - not performance related but a disappoint nonetheless...however, i would think this better than performance issues

3. Berken - i had much higher hopes for him...i think his peripherals are better than his overall ERA, but he looks more like a reliever prospect down the road

4. Lebron - supposed to be on the fast track, but control has completely abandoned him

5. Hernandez - extremely inconsistent, and a sub-par ERA, but his K and BB rates are both still very good and he is allowing too many fly balls....his last 10 starts, he has a 7.38 ERA

6. Pope/Rivas Injuries - not as high profile as Reimold/Penn, but still disappointing

7. Florimon - I didn't expect that much from them, but we all expected better than this...I'll point out that he is still very young (about a half month younger than Snyder)

8. Fiorentino/Majewski - Again, I didn't expect much from them, but considering they were in AA, I defenitely expected better

9. Rowell - only reason he is on this list is because the expectations were higher, but he is holding his own in A ball and that does say something

Pleasant Surprises
1. Tripp - a 12th round pick viewed as a good athlete and pretty raw when he came out so the upside was there....934 OPS in July has helped him show his hot April wasn't necessarily a fluke

2. Bergesen - always a pleasant surprise when a starter emerges as a legit prospect...GB tendencies, and K:BB ratios bode well for the future

3. Perez - numbers are absolutely dominating and is somebody I would like to get a taste of Frederick this year...lots Ks, not a lot of walks, not a lot of hits, and a lot of ground balls

4. Doyne - really not too much of a surprise based on his stats and what I read about him when he signed but he has been better than I expected

5. Henson - he was a guy I was really interested in seeing how he progressed when the season started, and he looks good so far

6. Kolodny - just mashing the ball, but I would I am taking into consideration the level he is playing at...he is just around 4 months younger than Henson

7. Schmidt - a little older but has a K rate of over 10 and a walk rate of about 3.53...I think he'll show himself as a reliever prospect down the road

Thoughts on Other Players:

Beato - hasn't really regressed any, but hasn't wowed me either
Snyder - established himself as a legit prospect again, but his number are still not where you want them to be yet
Spoone - not exactly a surprise, but has really established himself as a legit prospect
Liz - he has been pretty good, not great
Hoey - not a suprise because he has just improved upon his great numbers from last year
Olson - not a surprise but it is to see him progressing as a player

In summary, yes, the list of disappointments is a little heavy on guys in the upper levels. But should that be surprising since those levels expose guys who need more work or who have stuff that didn't translate well? I'm sure we will see a few of those guys bounce back.

Also, surprises are guys that are not expected to be doing that well, so we aren't really surprised to see top prospects doing well. When they don't do well, we see them on the disappointment list. There are a good amount of prospects that have maintained there top prospect statuses, and I think thats a good thing.

[Three Run Homer]

I'm sorry but you're not telling me that a 3.33 ERA and 84K in 108IP is a dissapointment. His numbers are not awesome but they are ok. In his last ten games he went 3.12 in 57IP with 46K and 21BB.

Beato was considered a first round talent. He should be dominating at Delmarva, but he's not. His ERA is ok but he has medicore peripherals (WHIP of 1.39, K/IP below 1 and a K/BB of under 2). He's been the third best starter on his team, below Bergesen and Jeffrey Moore. He put in an appearance at the futures game, where scouts were underwhelmed by his stuff.

He hasn't been a disaster, but I think people were expecting a lot more. His numbers alone (both this season and last season) do not suggest that he will ever pitch in the major leagues.

[Skywalker76]

He hasn't been a disaster, but I think people were expecting a lot more. His numbers alone (both this season and last season) do not suggest that he will ever pitch in the major leagues.

Sometimes people just disagree. Like I said his number aren't great but his numbers especially in June and July still indicate that he is someone who could have a solid major league career. Might not be the next Bedard but he should be solid #3-5 starter.

Something I also noticed is that Jordans drafts seem to be much more succesful with pitchers than with hitters. Don't have stats but it seems that a lot more hitters are dissapointing than pitchers. He also seems to find those pitching diamonds in the rough like Olson and Bascom who seem to be a reach at the time of the draft but do move quickly and succesful.

[rolliefingers]

Curious to see Beato and Adams on the disappointment list. Beato is having a solid season and really has done nothing to hurt his status at all IMO.The walk rate and reports of decreased velocity do concern me, but he's still young.

Overall, most of the major disappointments (Erbe, Rowell, Penn, Reimold) still have time to regain their status with a solid and healthy season next year.

If we're still having these concerns in a year, then I'll label them tainted prospects. But not right now.

[hammondsOs]

I know he started off slow, but Fleisher is batting .252 with 6 HR and 32 RBIs. I think he can still pan out.