Lowball history of the Orioles since 2000

[Frobby]

2000: Lowballed Mussina and lost him after the season
2003: Lowballed Guerrero and lost him
2004: Lowballed Delgado and lost him
2005: Lowballed Ryan and lost him after the season
2007: Lowballed Bedard and....

Talk about not learning your lesson! I'm not saying the O's would have retained/acquired all of these guys if they hadn't started off with a ridiculous lowball offer, but we sure know what the results of their tactics have been.

We'll throw 3/$19 mm at friggin' Danys Baez but we lowball the best pitcher this organization has developed in 15 years. Sheesh!

Here's an idea: lowball the mediocre players and pay the stars what they're worth!

[SilentJames]

Frobby this is really irresponsible of you.

The fact we lowballed Ryan doesn't matter he was made the RICHEST RELIEVER IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME!

Guerrero, we gave him a very good offer. The Angels came in the 11th hour and swept him away. We did not "lowball" him. We had the highest offer on the table until the Angels came into play.

The Bedard thing. This was a story that first appeared in Toronto and was largely dismissed as gossip then. Now it resurfaces coming from an agent that is: 1) not Bedard's and 2) Has an unknown connection to the Orioles organization. that is to say we know he represents Jon Lester. His connection to the inner-workings of the Orioles organization is dubious at best right now.

Don't you think that if something like that DID happen one of our guys inside the org would have passed that info along? Don;t you think if the Orioles knew that there was no way of extending him they would be actuvely shopping him right now? According to the agent the Orioles have no intention of trading him.

You're running with gossip here.

The fact that they PAID Danys Baez that much money should be proof of an oganization shift away from such practices.

[Zaimoku]

I'm surprised at this myself. Didn't some members here go to dinner with Flanagan a while back, and Flanagan came out and said Ryan's agent told him they were going to go for the pot of gold?

Guerrero wasn't going to sign with the Orioles if he could help it. He lives with his mommy, she doesn't speak English, and there aren't enough Spanish speakers in Baltimore.

The Bedard story is still nothing but a rumor. If Bedard doesn't give them another chance to make a higher offer with MacPhail, well he can kiss my backside. He wouldn't be that interested in reupping anyway.

[Birds of B'more]

Guerrero, we gave him a very good offer. The Angels came in the 11th hour and swept him away. We did not "lowball" him. We had the highest offer on the table until the Angels came into play.

Yeah, that's how I remember it. The offer on the table to Guerrero was very much market-value at the time. Going higher would have just been bidding against ourselves, since no one else was even involved during most of the process.


The fact that they PAID Danys Baez that much money should be proof of an oganization shift away from such practices. Not sure what you mean by "such practices." All that proves to me is that they are willing to pay way too much money for a reliever who isn't very good.

[orioles119]

Did NMS hijack your profile, Frobby?

You're wrong on Guerrero by the way...

[lovetoaster]

Guerrero wasn't going to sign with the Orioles if he could help it. He lives with his mommy, she doesn't speak English, and there aren't enough Spanish speakers in Baltimore.

Exactly, Guerrero was not going to sign here. He was not comfortable with the city and wanted somewhere with a high Spanish-speaking population. That ain't Charm City.

[nadecir]

2000: Lowballed Mussina and lost him after the season
2003: Lowballed Guerrero and lost him
2004: Lowballed Delgado and lost him
2005: Lowballed Ryan and lost him after the season
2007: Lowballed Bedard and....

Talk about not learning your lesson! I'm not saying the O's would have retained/acquired all of these guys if they hadn't started off with a ridiculous lowball offer, but we sure know what the results of their tactics have been.

We'll throw 3/$19 mm at friggin' Danys Baez but we lowball the best pitcher this organization has developed in 15 years. Sheesh!

Here's an idea: lowball the mediocre players and pay the stars what they're worth!Frobby, you forgot about the Orioles lowballing Derrek Lee in the middle of 2003.

In 2003, the Orioles had a trade worked out with the Marlins for Derrek Lee. We went so far as to bring him to the warehouse in an attempt to negotiate an extension with Lee. The Orioles offer was too low, and Lee was traded to Chicago and subsequently signed an extension.

And in the case of BJ Ryan, we lowballed him before the 2005 season. We could have signed him to an extension for a lot less in 2003 or 2004. There were negotiations between Ryan's representatives and the Orioles well before the Blue Jays overpaid for him, and we could have locked him up earlier, but we didn't.

Like it or not, the Orioles do have a history of losing good players because of an inability to close the deal. It is a shame we didn't reach an agreement with Bedard earlier. Even if Bedard agrees to negotiate now, it is going to cost the Orioles a lot more money to extend him than it would have last year.

[ChrisP]

I can't believe folks are actually defending the O's. Spot on Frobby and great recall nadecir!

[Frobby]

Yeah, that's how I remember it. The offer on the table to Guerrero was very much market-value at the time. Going higher would have just been bidding against ourselves, since no one else was even involved during most of the process.

The initial offer was, as I recall, 5 years, $65 mm. In my opinion that was insultingly low. It was fewer years and fewer dollars per year than what Jim Thome had received the year before, even though Vlad was younger and better than Thome. It was far, far less than Vlad was worth.

Those who defend that offer do so for one of two reasons. First, they say that we were the only bidder. Well, tough. You simply don't make an initial offer that so obviously undervalues the player, no matter how little competition there is, unless you want to create competition by putting something on the table that isn't really even a converstation-starter. All it does is get the negotiation off on the wrong foot. And the O's have made this mistake time and time again.

The second defense is that Vlad wouldn't have signed here anyway. First of all, I already acknowledged in my initial post that


I'm not saying the O's would have retained/acquired all of these guys if they hadn't started off with a ridiculous lowball offer

Vlad may be an example of that. But, we'll never know. If he was inclined to go to a team with a large Spanish-speaking community, getting a lowball offer sure wasn't going to help change his mind.

[DrungoHazewood]

Frobby this is really irresponsible of you.

You're running with gossip here.

Where are the rumors and gossip about the Orioles slapping down a check in front of a star player and saying "what'll it take to put you in Orange and Black?" There aren't any. Even as the Orioles payroll declined and they had plenty of available cash in the 1998-on era they rarely won a bidding war with anyone, including with star players they have under contract and were just looking to extend. They're never proactive, they almost never lock a guy up before they have to, and that's often too late.

Contrast this with teams like the Indians, who love to take a guy 2-3 years away from free agency and get him locked up long-term to give them a good player, cost certainty, and a discount. The O's version of this is asking a player if they'll take a big hometown discount, getting laughed out of the room, then giving up. And even if half the rumors aren't true we still have a pretty strong case.


The fact that they PAID Danys Baez that much money should be proof of an oganization shift away from such practices.

No... that just proves that the Orioles have no problem spending a little bit of money, even if it's on a mediocre player. Where they almost always balk is in signing true star talent to market rate deals.

A great model for team development is to maximize the number of sub-$1M players, sign a fair number of big stars, and save by rarely dipping into the treacherous waters of mid-range, declining free agents. The Orioles build their "foundation" with a large number of those players, most of whom are in decline or have already bottomed out.

[DrungoHazewood]

The initial offer was, as I recall, 5 years, $65 mm. In my opinion that was insultingly low. It was fewer years and fewer dollars per year than what Jim Thome had received the year before, even though Vlad was younger and better than Thome. It was far, far less than Vlad was worth.

Those who defend that offer do so for one of two reasons. First, they say that we were the only bidder. Well, tough. You simply don't make an initial offer that so obviously undervalues the player, no matter how little competition there is, unless you want to create competition by putting something on the table that isn't really even a converstation-starter. All it does is get the negotiation off on the wrong foot. And the O's have made this mistake time and time again.

The second defense is that Vlad wouldn't have signed here anyway. First of all, I already acknowledged in my initial post that.

The Orioles offer guaranteed that Vlad wouldn't sign here. If they'd opened with a killer offer I'd bet he'd have listened, and maybe actually signed. At least they'd have driven up the price. Worst case they overpay for a superstar... ooohh, that would have been terrible, wouldn't it?

The Orioles basically went to the BMW dealer, saw a $75,000 M5 that had been on the lot for a couple months. They offered the salesman $40k. The guy rolled his eyes and said "I'll call you back." After another month no call. The Orioles response? "Screw that guy, he doesn't want to sell the car." The salesman knew he had a quality product, and eventually someone would pay a lot closer to sticker.

[Mark Carver]

Frobby, you forgot about the Orioles lowballing Derrek Lee in the middle of 2003.

In 2003, the Orioles had a trade worked out with the Marlins for Derrek Lee. We went so far as to bring him to the warehouse in an attempt to negotiate an extension with Lee. The Orioles offer was too low, and Lee was traded to Chicago and subsequently signed an extension.

He signed an extension with the Cubs that was 3 years for $22.5M (2004-06). Now do tell us how much the Orioles offered him...

From ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1671120)


In fact, Lee almost went to the Baltimore Orioles. He even went to Camden Yards this week to talk about a contract extension, but the deal fell through.

"They're a good organization and they're headed in the right direction," Lee said. "It didn't feel right for me."

[NewMarketSean]

We're gonna lose Bedard one way or another. That is just a fact that we need to accept. Now will we let him walk and get the crap shoot draft picks? Or will we try to pull of a Bartolo Colon type trade and rebuild this organization?

We should trade Bedard this time next season if we're out of it.

[hoosiers]

Not a big fan of this thread at all. Teams start with lower offers ALL THE TIME - and it is really ignorant to claim otherwise.

Even in the Os recent history, we started off low with Mora and Huff and received a reduced asking price. The Vlad example is twisted ridiculously - "tell us what it takes to sign you in orange and black" (???) - when does that happen in early negotations. Didn't Jason Schmidt ask us to stop bidding on him? Pretty much the same with Richie Sexson ... What good would that question have done in those situations? And with 30 teams out there, do you really think we would identify a "must-have" free agent and not have a few other teams say the same question with their team colors to the same guy?

The posts in this thread imply that recent LT deals with players like Sizemore and Bonderman took place over a five minute period while waiting in line at Starbucks with no resistance whatsoever from management - or imply that our FO should show little resistance in such cases.

Frobby and Drungo post the best stuff out there, IMO, but this thread is a head-scratcher to me.

[clapdiddy]

Did NMS hijack your profile, Frobby?

You're wrong on Guerrero by the way...
Actually, in terms of dollars per season, he's right. The overall cash outlay was more, but it involved 6 years instead of 5.

I'm still of the theory that this was the "one that got away". We should've blown him out of the water with a deal and got him here. He was young, proven, and an MVP candidate every year.

[Frobby]

Not a big fan of this thread at all. Teams start with lower offers ALL THE TIME - and it is really ignorant to claim otherwise.

Even in the Os recent history, we started off low with Mora and Huff and received a reduced asking price. The Vlad example is twisted ridiculously - "tell us what it takes to sign you in orange and black" (???) - when does that happen in early negotations. Didn't Jason Schmidt ask us to stop bidding on him? Pretty much the same with Richie Sexson ... What good would that question have done in those situations? And with 30 teams out there, do you really think we would identify a "must-have" free agent and not have a few other teams say the same question with their team colors to the same guy?

The posts in this thread imply that recent LT deals with players like Sizemore and Bonderman took place over a five minute period while waiting in line at Starbucks with no resistance whatsoever from management - or imply that our FO should show little resistance in such cases.

Frobby and Drungo post the best stuff out there, IMO, but this thread is a head-scratcher to me.

I am not saying we have lowballed every player we've ever gone after. I don't feel we lowballed Derek Lee, or Carlos Lee for that matter. I don't feel we lowballed Richie Sexson. We certainly didn't lowball Paul Konerko.

But the players we have lowballed, as identified in my original post, were stupid guys to lowball. And I understand you don't want to make an initial offer that is the highest you are willing to go, but when you make an offer that significantly and obviously undervalues the player compared to his peers, you insult him and that's not a good way to negotiate.

Now I will give one caveat here -- I was reacting to what Peace21 posted about Bedard and we don't have any specifics on him. But, the version he gave is pretty darned plausible given the Orioles' past tactics.

[Oriole Baseball]

Where are the rumors and gossip about the Orioles slapping down a check in front of a star player and saying "what'll it take to put you in Orange and Black?" There aren't any.

Albert Belle ;)


As far as lowballing Bedard, no offense to Peace or his contact, but until we start hearing it from people with O's connections or from reporters, I won't believe it.

Plus, you always low ball when it comes to negotiations. Thats how it works. You go under and the player oges over and then you work to meet somewhere in the middle. The Orioles could throw down 5 year/60 mil and Bedard will immediatly come back with a higher number.

I wouldn't count the Mussina negotions as a fault of the O's. As I remember, Mussina told Angelos he would let the Orioles counter offer the Yanks and then never came back after visiting NY.

[Dipper9]

The Orioles offer guaranteed that Vlad wouldn't sign here. If they'd opened with a killer offer I'd bet he'd have listened, and maybe actually signed. At least they'd have driven up the price. Worst case they overpay for a superstar... ooohh, that would have been terrible, wouldn't it?

The Orioles basically went to the BMW dealer, saw a $75,000 M5 that had been on the lot for a couple months. They offered the salesman $40k. The guy rolled his eyes and said "I'll call you back." After another month no call. The Orioles response? "Screw that guy, he doesn't want to sell the car." The salesman knew he had a quality product, and eventually someone would pay a lot closer to sticker.

This is just plain WRONG and you are twisting the facts to make your argument. The truth is we got Miggy the SAME year that the Vladdy offer was on the table. Miggy's deal was a shock around the league because of the fact that we got him at such a reduced rate. In your argument, why didn't Miggy's low offer "guarantee that he wouldn't sign here" either? We had the best deal on the table for Vladdy, and he turned it down. PERIOD!

As for Delgado...we definitely would have gotten him had we added to the paycheck. No doubt there we lowballed him.

Ryan COULD have been signed on the cheap the year before his free agency, but the O's took a chance and lost on that one. Had we given him the contract and then he came out and BOMBED as closer, you all would have crucified the FO for that as well. Remember that WAS his first season closing.

The one that really gets my goat that I cannot defend in any way shape or form is Moose. I get into arguments with Mrs. D all the time about this because Moose was LOWBALLED by Angelos, yet Moose gets all the grief from O's fan. PA certainly screwed up there. Moose should have been our 2nd Palmer!

[bomp]

Give MacPhail a chance! He just got here! he might be able to right the ship. Up till now it's been rearranging the deck chairs on the Titantic. Give the guy a chance!

[Three Run Homer]

No... that just proves that the Orioles have no problem spending a little bit of money, even if it's on a mediocre player. Where they almost always balk is in signing true star talent to market rate deals.

A great model for team development is to maximize the number of sub-$1M players, sign a fair number of big stars, and save by rarely dipping into the treacherous waters of mid-range, declining free agents. The Orioles build their "foundation" with a large number of those players, most of whom are in decline or have already bottomed out.

I think we have the makings of a Grand Unifying Theory of Everything here.

The fundamental problem is that Angelos is a union guy (AFL-CIO, not MLBPA) who takes a union mindset to building a team. His ideal team is a bunch of old guys who all make about the same salary. He doesn't want to pay big stars a lot of money because that would create inequality and resentment. He believes in rewarding loyalty and longevity above performance. He believes that young players should have to pay their dues before getting a chance, unless they have some personal or ethnic connection (like being Greek) that exalts them to favored status.

[Sports Guy]

Good thread Frobby.

It amazes me how many naive people there still are on this board.

The benefit of the doubt this piss poor organization is given is mind boggling to me.

[geschinger]

I think we have the makings of a Grand Unifying Theory of Everything here.

The fundamental problem is that Angelos is a union guy (AFL-CIO, not MLBPA) who takes a union mindset to building a team. His ideal team is a bunch of old guys who all make about the same salary. He doesn't want to pay big stars a lot of money because that would create inequality and resentment. He believes in rewarding loyalty and longevity above performance. He believes that young players should have to pay their dues before getting a chance, unless they have some personal or ethnic connection (like being Greek) that exalts them to favored status.

Interesting theory.

[NewMarketSean]

Don't forget about the lowballing of Derek Lee and Rafael Palmeiro.

[geschinger]

Good thread Frobby.

It amazes me how many naive people there still are on this board.

The benefit of the doubt this piss poor organization is given is mind boggling to me.

The Orioles organization has certainly been dysfunctional and deserves most of the criticism it receives. But it also amazes me how every move that one disagrees with is spun to try and make the Orioles look as bad as possible.

One of the primary examples of lowballing a player is from the same year that we completely blew everyone elses offer for a former MVP shortstop. The Orioles offer for Vladdie was as good if not better than other offers received. He made it perfectly clear by refusing to meet w/the front office and later by the statements about wanting to be closer to a hispanic community that Baltimore was not a good fit for him. Yet to this day we ignore all that and spin it as if only the O's hadn't lowballed him w/their original offer he'd be an Oriole today. With all due respect that it total and complete BS.

[NewMarketSean]

The Orioles organization has certainly been dysfunctional and deserves most of the criticism it receives. But it also amazes me how every move that one disagrees with is spun to try and make the Orioles look as bad as possible.

One of the primary examples of lowballing a player is from the same year that we completely blew everyone elses offer for a former MVP shortstop. The Orioles offer for Vladdie was as good if not better than other offers received. He made it perfectly clear by refusing to meet w/the front office and later by the statements about wanting to be closer to a hispanic community that Baltimore was not a good fit for him. Yet to this day we ignore all that and spin it as if only the O's hadn't lowballed him w/their original offer he'd be an Oriole today. With all due respect that it total and complete BS.

I disagree. All it showed was that the Orioles had the best offer on the table because no one else wanted him. There was no competition. Do you honestly believe that if anyone else wanted Tejada the Orioles would have gotten him? Detroit and Seattle flirted with Tejada but none of them were serious. Ironically, Seattle is in second place and fighting for a Wild Card and Detroit was in the WS last year. I wonder if Tejada is wishing he took less to play for those teams and a chance to compete.

Anyway, what I am trying to say is, once another team showed interest in Guerrero he was gone. The Orioles didn't have a chance with competition because A) They suck, and B) they wouldn't raise their offer to get him.

If they really wanted him... they could have raised the offer and made it almost impossible for him to go elsewhere. I blame the Orioles for that.

As usual, they thought it better to save a couple million rather than sign one of the best players in the game. Shame on them.

[Sports Guy]

Bottom line on Vlad was that the orioles didn't offer him enough to make him come here.

We know he asked for 7/105 to counter the 6/78 offer...So, he was willing to come here but wanted to get paid a lot more.

We should have countered for 6/90.

If we would have done that and he still said no, then i would agree.

But we didn't, so we will never truly know.

[JohnD]

Regarding Lee. The Orioles and Lee had a 3yr/27 deal worked out after agreeing to send Dave Crouthers, who no longer is in baseball I believe, and Val Majewski to the Marlins. Angelos balked at the contract extension. It fell apart and Lee became a Cub.

[mweb]

I think it's hard to say we lowballed Vlad when he signed for 5/70, 5M more than what is being said was our initial offer. The rest I agree with.

[nadecir]

Regarding Lee. The Orioles and Lee had a 3yr/27 deal worked out after agreeing to send Dave Crouthers, who no longer is in baseball I believe, and Val Majewski to the Marlins. Angelos balked at the contract extension. It fell apart and Lee became a Cub.What a deal that would have been for the Orioles!

[BaltBird 24]

Regarding Lee. The Orioles and Lee had a 3yr/27 deal worked out after agreeing to send Dave Crouthers, who no longer is in baseball I believe, and Val Majewski to the Marlins. Angelos balked at the contract extension. It fell apart and Lee became a Cub.

Sometimes I think it'd be best if Peter Angelos had never decided to dabble in baseball.

[mweb]

Sometimes I think it'd be best if Peter Angelos had never decided to dabble in baseball.

Only sometimes?;)

[BaltimoreTerp]

I think it's hard to say we lowballed Vlad when he signed for 5/70, 5M more than what is being said was our initial offer. The rest I agree with.

Especially when our supposed offer at the end was around 5/75.

But when has logic or factual information ever stood in the way of people around here?

[BaltimoreTerp]

Regarding Lee. The Orioles and Lee had a 3yr/27 deal worked out after agreeing to send Dave Crouthers, who no longer is in baseball I believe, and Val Majewski to the Marlins. Angelos balked at the contract extension. It fell apart and Lee became a Cub.

I remember that, because I remember saying that it was OK because we would be keeping Val.

Oops :p

[geschinger]

Anyway, what I am trying to say is, once another team showed interest in Guerrero he was gone. The Orioles didn't have a chance with competition because A) They suck, and B) they wouldn't raise their offer to get him.


Wrong. He dragged the Mets along as well and the Orioles did raise their offer. It's fair to say they didn't raise it enough but completely wrong to say that they wouldn't raise their offer. As soon as a club he was interested in got involved he signed almost immediately.



If they really wanted him... they could have raised the offer and made it almost impossible for him to go elsewhere. I blame the Orioles for that.

As usual, they thought it better to save a couple million rather than sign one of the best players in the game. Shame on them.

Blaming them for not overpaying or blowing away the competetion is a fair argument. Saying we lost him by "lowballing" him is not.

[clapdiddy]

Especially when our supposed offer at the end was around 5/75.

But when has logic or factual information ever stood in the way of people around here?
I hear what you're saying, but why not offer that up front...and why not go to 6/90?

The guy was getting ready for the prime years of his career. If we made the 6/90 and he rejected it, then I could at least know we put our best offer on the table.

[TonySoprano]

Frobby this is really irresponsible of you.

The fact we lowballed Ryan doesn't matter he was made the RICHEST RELIEVER IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME!

Guerrero, we gave him a very good offer. The Angels came in the 11th hour and swept him away. We did not "lowball" him. We had the highest offer on the table until the Angels came into play.Knock off the shouting. In your haste, once again, to pick up the flag and defend the fallen Orioles a few other facts seem to have been overlooked. Ryan wouldn't have been the "richest reliever in the history of the game" had we bumped up our offer in the Spring by around $5 million. He would have been under contract and not a free agent.

The Orioles last offer to Guerrero was much higher than they started. In fact, the Orioles initial offer was less than what he had just turned down from Montreal.

[Sports Guy]

Especially when our supposed offer at the end was around 5/75.

But when has logic or factual information ever stood in the way of people around here?Certainly not in your case since the end offer was 6/78.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I hear what you're saying, but why not offer that up front...and why not go to 6/90?

The guy was getting ready for the prime years of his career. If we made the 6/90 and he rejected it, then I could at least know we put our best offer on the table.

Because nobody else was offering ANYTHING.

And then when people started to make offers, we raised ours to the point of having the best offer on the table when he signed.

I didn't, and still don't, see anything wrong with how they negotiated.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Certainly not in your case since the end offer was 6/78.

Fine. My point is still there.

[geschinger]

Bottom line on Vlad was that the orioles didn't offer him enough to make him come here.

We know he asked for 7/105 to counter the 6/78 offer...So, he was willing to come here but wanted to get paid a lot more.

We should have countered for 6/90.

If we would have done that and he still said no, then i would agree.

But we didn't, so we will never truly know.


I didn't, and still don't, see anything wrong with how they negotiated.



My biggest gripe and what I think the Orioles did wrong w/the Vladamir negotiations was handling them so publically. Seemed like every week or so while it dragged out that Beattie or Flanagan would talk about it where things at. They should of made their best offer, set a take it or leave it deadline to either accept the offer or engage in meaningful negotiations and then move on if they refused. Dragging out the process is what they did horribly wrong.

[Dipper9]

I hear what you're saying, but why not offer that up front...and why not go to 6/90?

The guy was getting ready for the prime years of his career. If we made the 6/90 and he rejected it, then I could at least know we put our best offer on the table.

When you're playing poker, do you go all on your first hand, or do you start with small amounts and build it up? When you go to an auction, do you start the bidding with the toal amount you have in your pocket, or do you just beat the guy who bid before you? There is your answer. Had we offered 5/75 to start, all that does is raise the stakes and takes you out of the bidding.

[Sports Guy]

Fine. My point is still there.

If you mean the wrong point, yes it is there.

[TonySoprano]

"This [$78 million offer] was out there a week before any of this New York [Mets] stuff started," the team official said. "We met them at a sixth year. We took the step. And that was before New Year's."


Then Saturday night, in a stirring development, Mets general manager Jim Duquette said Guerrero's lead agent, Arn Tellem, called him to say that Guerrero had decided to sign with another undisclosed team that had come forward with its offer on Thursday. "Two teams were still alive" (Mets and Angels) with the implication being the Orioles were out of the running despite their offer.

In an interview with the New York Post, Tellem kept open the possibility that two teams were still alive. "All I can say is that the Mets made a good-faith attempt, and Vladimir decided to sign with another team," Tellem said.

Duquette's comments left the Orioles scrambling to find out if they were indeed out of the running. Team officials said they had not been told they were out by Tellem, Fernando Cuza, Diego Benz or any of Guerrero's other agents.

What made that more surprising is that only hours earlier, the Orioles had completed a deal with another of Cuza's clients, Rafael Palmeiro.

But Orioles officials also sounded almost nonplussed by the news, as if they knew it was coming. "The world will go on," another top team official said.

In mid-December, when most teams were saying they didn't have the money to sign Guerrero, the Orioles offered a five-year, $65 million contract.

Later in the month, they increased that offer to five years for $67.5 million, saying they didn't want to guarantee a sixth year because of lingering concerns about Guerrero's back. He spent 39 games on the disabled list last season with a herniated disc in his lower back, then returned to play in 62 of the Montreal Expos' final 64 games.The Orioles, specifically Flanagan (Beattie was on vacation at the time) heard about the Guerrero signing from a reporter, not from Arn Tellem, who personally negotiated the deal with the Angels.


Guerrero's agents made an initial proposal to the Orioles asking for eight years and $145 million. They lowered those demands to seven years and $105 million, and for some time, neither side seemed willing to budge.

Eventually, the Orioles did.

After signing shortstop Miguel Tejada to a six-year, $72 million deal, and catcher Javy Lopez to a three-year, $22.5 million deal, the Orioles offered Guerrero the richest deal of the offseason.

But instead of softening, Guerrero's agents held firm, playing coy with the Orioles as they solicited interest from other teams. One top Orioles official said he thought the Guerrero camp was holding out for six years and $90 million.

That would be $15 million per season. Guerrero already turned down $15 million per year (five years, $75 million) from the Expos before declining arbitration. So far, the free-agent market obviously hasn't been as fruitful as he may have thought.

A year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies gave Jim Thome the richest deal of the offseason when they signed him to a six-year, $85.2 million deal. That's $14.2 million per season, and there is implicit pressure on Cuza and Benz to re-raise the bar with Guerrero.

The Orioles weren't willing to do that. They were more eager to compromise with Tejada, Lopez and Palmeiro because shortstop, catcher and first base were three positions they absolutely needed to fill. But if the Orioles were to lose out on Guerrero, they would still have Jay Gibbons to play right field.

"Maybe [Guerrero] just did us a favor," one Orioles official said late last night. While the Expos final offer was 5 - $75 million, the Orioles strategy was to jump in initially at 5 - $65 million. The Orioles line in the sand was only one year and $ 3 million more than the Expos offer.

Source for the above - The Sun, Jan 10, 2004 (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-guerrero0110,0,2757221.story?coll=bal-sports-headlines)

[nadecir]

This may be the funniest quote ever made by an Oriole's official.


The Orioles weren't willing to do that. They were more eager to compromise with Tejada, Lopez and Palmeiro because shortstop, catcher and first base were three positions they absolutely needed to fill. But if the Orioles were to lose out on Guerrero, they would still have Jay Gibbons to play right field.

"Maybe [Guerrero] just did us a favor," one Orioles official said late last night.

Thank goodness we have Jay Gibbons around to replace Guerrero's production in the lineup. :D

[orioles119]

I think it was very telling that the Orioles negotiated with Fern Cuza and Diego Bentz, yet he was signed by his "lead agent" Arn Tellem by the Angels.

[orioles119]

This may be the funniest quote ever made by an Oriole's official.



Thank goodness we have Jay Gibbons around to replace Guerrero's production in the lineup. :D
Hindsight is so wonderful, since Jay was coming off a 23 HR, 100 RBI season with a .277 AVG, .330 OBP and .786 OPS at the age of 26.

With those numbers, you would expect Gibbons to continue progressing, but injuries and ineffectiveness stymied his production to the point of atrocity.

Who knew that would happen to Gibbons anyway?

[TonySoprano]

I think it was very telling that the Orioles negotiated with Fern Cuza and Diego Bentz, yet he was signed by his "lead agent" Arn Tellem by the Angels.Exactly. This tells me that Tellem and his underlings Cuza and Bentz didn't deal with us in good faith. They kept us in the game long enough for another offer to come along. One possible interpretation is that Guerrero did not ever intend to come here. He refused requests to visit the city. Once two cities with a large Hispanic population got involved, Baltimore became an afterthought. Duquette, then with the New York Mets, was afforded every professional consideration that we should have been given but weren't.


The call from the Vladimir Guerrero camp came after midnight for Orioles vice president Mike Flanagan, and it confirmed the news that had been leaking slowly throughout the baseball industry all Saturday evening.

Guerrero was turning his back on the Orioles' six-year, $78 million offer to sign with another team, agent Fernando Cuza said.

By then, Flanagan had already heard.

With a stealth maneuver, the Anaheim Angels had reached agreement with Guerrero on a contract believed to be worth $70 million over five years.
Cuza was one of at least four agents who negotiated on Guerrero's behalf. Orioles officials said they never once spoke with Arn Tellem, who brokered the deal with the Angels. Apparently, Tellem's people divided the Guerrero talks by teams, with Cuza and Diego Benz handling the Orioles. Tellem is the same agent who delivered former Orioles ace Mike Mussina, to the New York Yankees in 2000. Source - The Sun, Jan 12, 2004 (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-os11,0,1572784.story?coll=bal-sports-baseball)

[geschinger]

Exactly. This tells me that Tellem and his underlings Cuza and Bentz didn't deal with us in good faith. They kept us in the game long enough for another offer to come along. One possible interpretation is that Guerrero did not ever intend to come here. He refused requests to visit the city. Once two cities with a large Hispanic population got involved, Baltimore became an afterthought. Duquette, then with the New York Mets, was afforded every professional consideration that we should have been given but weren't.


Bingo. This interpretation is the right one IMO. The biggest mistake the Orioles made was letting it drag out. They should of set a deadline and if he wasn't interested we should of pulled it and moved on.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hindsight is so wonderful, since Jay was coming off a 23 HR, 100 RBI season with a .277 AVG, .330 OBP and .786 OPS at the age of 26.

With those numbers, you would expect Gibbons to continue progressing, but injuries and ineffectiveness stymied his production to the point of atrocity.

Who knew that would happen to Gibbons anyway?

What exactly about Gibbons' career made you think 2005 was anything but a career season? He's been hurt a lot, and outside of 2005 he's not really progressed at all since his rookie year. His ISO hasn't gotten better, his walk rate hasn't improved. He's never been much of a defensive player, and he's just about fast enough to pinch run for Ramon Hernandez. His career OPS is 775, which is about 50 points below that of an average DH.

Players fitting that description don't age well. When you're barealy average and you're already at the far end of the defensive spectrum, when your bat slips 10% you're out of the league.

[hoosiers]

Exactly. This tells me that Tellem and his underlings Cuza and Bentz didn't deal with us in good faith. They kept us in the game long enough for another offer to come along. One possible interpretation is that Guerrero did not ever intend to come here. He refused requests to visit the city. Once two cities with a large Hispanic population got involved, Baltimore became an afterthought. Duquette, then with the New York Mets, was afforded every professional consideration that we should have been given but weren't.

I know people can interpret things many different ways, but I think this summarizes the situation pretty darn well. I find it hard to believe we were considered to have "low-balled" Vlad when we had the highest bid out there and were clearly willing to go higher to get a deal done. If I recall, NYMets tried to enter the fray with a cheap two or three year deal that was chump change compared to ours - and Vlad seemed to give that more weight than our bid.

And let's not pretend that this doesn't happen to other teams - which is what goads me about this thread. Didn't Carlos Beltran negotiate for weeks with the Astros and Mets and, before signing with the Mets, called the Yankees and asked them to make an offer at a certain price point competitive with the Mets offer?

[TGO]

What exactly about Gibbons' career made you think 2005 was anything but a career season? He's been hurt a lot, and outside of 2005 he's not really progressed at all since his rookie year. His ISO hasn't gotten better, his walk rate hasn't improved. He's never been much of a defensive player, and he's just about fast enough to pinch run for Ramon Hernandez. His career OPS is 775, which is about 50 points below that of an average DH.

Players fitting that description don't age well. When you're barealy average and you're already at the far end of the defensive spectrum, when your bat slips 10% you're out of the league.

Wrong year Drungo. Look at his 2003 stats. That is what 119 is talking about.

In 2003 he was 26 and most of us here thought he was going to keep getting better. You can't deny that. And in 2005 he did have that career year at age 28. The problem is it followed a horrendous and injury riddled 2004. Yes, there were warning signs that Gibbons would not progress like we thought he would, but he could have been better without the injuries. He was never going to be in Vlad's league but almost everyone here in 2003/04 thought he was going to be a serviceable and cheap DH/RF/1B/bench option for several years.

[8ripken2131]

Good thread Frobby.

It amazes me how many naive people there still are on this board.

The benefit of the doubt this piss poor organization is given is mind boggling to me.

This is a great thread, and I too can't believe that people are actually defending the O's. Regardless of the "facts" surrounding each of these individual deals, the bottom line is that time and time again, the O's have failed to bring in (or retain) premium talent. The lack of impact talent on this team today and over the last ten years is the reason we've lost; it's just that simple. The O's just haven't been willing to spend the money or take the chance in a trade, and I can't believe that anyone would defend them on this.

[Mark Carver]

Good thread Frobby.

It amazes me how many naive people there still are on this board.

The benefit of the doubt this piss poor organization is given is mind boggling to me.

Ahhh, the art of negotiating... or the lack there of sometimes. When it works, it's great and they are geniuses and when it don't by some standards, they are piss poor. Thankfully, they currently are looking at a player on the current roster that would be looking at 3 years @ $9m a year and regretting it.


Just offer him [Huff] 2/16-18 with a 3rd year option for 8-9 million.

I would give him until Xmas eve to sign it. If he doesn't, take the offer off the table at that point and be done with it.

Really, i have no issue going 3 years for him but it doesn't seem we have to so offer him a pay raise from last year.

In this market, if you can get him for 2/16-18, you are getting a good deal. No reason not to up our offer. They talk about how we have to overpay to get players here.

[Sports Guy]

Ahhh, the art of negotiating... or the lack there of sometimes. When it works, it's great and they are geniuses and when it don't by some standards, they are piss poor. Thankfully, they currently are looking at a player on the current roster that would be looking at 3 years @ $9m a year and regretting it.
Curious if you actually read what i said?

I said give him a TWO YEAR offer with a 3rd year OPTION.

So, that would be having him for 2 years, not 3.

[Mark Carver]

Curious if you actually read what i said?

I said give him a TWO YEAR offer with a 3rd year OPTION.

So, that would be having him for 2 years, not 3.

Yeah I did, did you... "i have no issue going 3 years for him".


Just offer him [Huff] 2/16-18 with a 3rd year option for 8-9 million.

I would give him until Xmas eve to sign it. If he doesn't, take the offer off the table at that point and be done with it.

Really, i have no issue going 3 years for him but it doesn't seem we have to so offer him a pay raise from last year.

In this market, if you can get him for 2/16-18, you are getting a good deal. No reason not to up our offer. They talk about how we have to overpay to get players here.

[TonySoprano]

I know people can interpret things many different ways, but I think this summarizes the situation pretty darn well. I find it hard to believe we were considered to have "low-balled" Vlad when we had the highest bid out there and were clearly willing to go higher to get a deal done. It has long been my position that he wasn't coming here regardless, but our initial negotiating stance certainly didn't help matters. If you go back to one of my earlier posts, we did "lowball" Guerrero, bidding lower than the Expos. "Lowball" is a relative term as the price that Guerrero would take from the Angels is lower than what it would have taken to get him to give real, sincere consideration to Montreal or Baltimore.

[TonySoprano]

Don't forget about the lowballing of Derek Lee and Rafael Palmeiro.
Palmeiro's case was a classic. The Orioles told him that no player gets $10 million a season. Then, Angelos personally negotiates a deal for Albert Belle at $ 13 million per over 5 years, buying off on the ruse that Steinbrenner was going to get Belle.

[writehh]

"Two teams were still alive" (Mets and Angels) with the implication being the Orioles were out of the running despite their offer.
The Orioles, specifically Flanagan (Beattie was on vacation at the time) heard about the Guerrero signing from a reporter, not from Arn Tellem, who personally negotiated the deal with the Angels.

While the Expos final offer was 5 - $75 million, the Orioles strategy was to jump in initially at 5 - $65 million. The Orioles line in the sand was only one year and $ 3 million more than the Expos offer.

Source for the above - The Sun, Jan 10, 2004 (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-guerrero0110,0,2757221.story?coll=bal-sports-headlines)

TonySoprano's post is excellent. Lowball? Highball? The point is that there is a story behind each of the player's mentioned in Frobby's initial post.

Did Player A have a track record of success?
Did Player B have a risky injury?
Did Player C enter a hard or soft market?
Did the Orioles have a homegrown alternative to the player?
Did the Orioles have the financial wherewithal to make increasing the bid a prudent thing to do?

Highball? Lowball? Each players has their story. Looking at only the end result is looking out of context.

[orioles119]

What exactly about Gibbons' career made you think 2005 was anything but a career season? He's been hurt a lot, and outside of 2005 he's not really progressed at all since his rookie year. His ISO hasn't gotten better, his walk rate hasn't improved. He's never been much of a defensive player, and he's just about fast enough to pinch run for Ramon Hernandez. His career OPS is 775, which is about 50 points below that of an average DH.

Drungo... I said AT THE TIME you could have expected Gibbons to continue progressing - meaning back in the Winter of 2003, you could expect Gibbons to continue progressing. I wasn't taking the last three years and this year into account when making the observation. I didn't say anything about 2005, since he hit the 23 HRs and drove in 100 in 2003.


Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2001 24 BAL AL 73 225 27 53 10 0 15 36 0 1 17 39 .236 .301 .480 109 108 0 0 0 4 7
2002 25 BAL AL 136 490 71 121 29 1 28 69 1 3 45 66 .247 .311 .482 109 236 0 4 3 2 9
2003 26 BAL AL 160 625 80 173 39 2 23 100 0 1 49 89 .277 .330 .456 110 285 0 5 11 3 12
2004 27 BAL AL 97 346 36 85 14 1 10 47 1 1 29 64 .246 .303 .379 74 131 1 3 0 1 11
2005 28 BAL AL 139 488 72 135 33 3 26 79 0 0 28 56 .277 .317 .516 123 252 0 1 3 1 15
2006 29 BAL AL 90 343 34 95 23 0 13 46 0 0 32 48 .277 .341 .458 106 157 0 1 2 2 12
2007 30 BAL AL 73 230 25 50 14 0 6 26 0 0 14 46 .217 .266 .357 64 82 0 2 1 2 4
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
7 Seasons 768 2747 345 712 162 7 121 403 2 6 214 408 .259 .315 .455 103 1251 1 16 20 15 70
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 579 73 150 34 1 26 85 0 1 45 86 .259 .315 .455 103 264 0 3 4 3 15
Career High 160 625 80 173 39 3 28 100 1 3 49 89 .277 .341 .516 123 285 1 5 11 4 15

[Sports Guy]

Yeah I did, did you... "i have no issue going 3 years for him".

Saying "i have no issue with..." and actually giving him the 3 years, which you said i was doing, is a different thing.

I clearly stated 2 years.

[DrungoHazewood]

Drungo... I said AT THE TIME you could have expected Gibbons to continue progressing - meaning back in the Winter of 2003, you could expect Gibbons to continue progressing. I wasn't taking the last three years and this year into account when making the observation. I didn't say anything about 2005, since he hit the 23 HRs and drove in 100 in 2003.


Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2001 24 BAL AL 73 225 27 53 10 0 15 36 0 1 17 39 .236 .301 .480 109 108 0 0 0 4 7
2002 25 BAL AL 136 490 71 121 29 1 28 69 1 3 45 66 .247 .311 .482 109 236 0 4 3 2 9
2003 26 BAL AL 160 625 80 173 39 2 23 100 0 1 49 89 .277 .330 .456 110 285 0 5 11 3 12
2004 27 BAL AL 97 346 36 85 14 1 10 47 1 1 29 64 .246 .303 .379 74 131 1 3 0 1 11
2005 28 BAL AL 139 488 72 135 33 3 26 79 0 0 28 56 .277 .317 .516 123 252 0 1 3 1 15
2006 29 BAL AL 90 343 34 95 23 0 13 46 0 0 32 48 .277 .341 .458 106 157 0 1 2 2 12
2007 30 BAL AL 73 230 25 50 14 0 6 26 0 0 14 46 .217 .266 .357 64 82 0 2 1 2 4
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
7 Seasons 768 2747 345 712 162 7 121 403 2 6 214 408 .259 .315 .455 103 1251 1 16 20 15 70
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 579 73 150 34 1 26 85 0 1 45 86 .259 .315 .455 103 264 0 3 4 3 15
Career High 160 625 80 173 39 3 28 100 1 3 49 89 .277 .341 .516 123 285 1 5 11 4 15


Ok, that's fair, that's probably true. Through 2003 he looked like at least an average corner OFer for a while. He was 26, coming off a solid year.

Here's a funny thing... BB-reference has Gibbons' most comparable player through his 2003 season as Willie Kirkland (http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kirklwi01.shtml). Kirkland was on the fast track to oblivion by 28, and out of the league after a particularly ugly age 32 season. The bb-ref comps don't use a lot of data that they could, and don't adjust for context very well, but this one seems pretty spot-on. (As is Butch Huskey, his age 27 comp.)

[Frobby]

I know people can interpret things many different ways, but I think this summarizes the situation pretty darn well. I find it hard to believe we were considered to have "low-balled" Vlad when we had the highest bid out there and were clearly willing to go higher to get a deal done.

The previous year, Jim Thome received a 6 year, $84 mm deal. Before Vlad even hit the market, he turned down 5 years, $75 mm to stay with the Expos. With that background, anybody could see that Vlad wasn't coming here for 5 years, $65 mm. I realize that markets change, but I stand by my position that the initial offer to Vlad simply wasn't smart, and was a lowball offer regardless of what competition the O's perceived was out there.

[Mark Carver]

Saying "i have no issue with..." and actually giving him the 3 years, which you said i was doing, is a different thing.

I clearly stated 2 years.

If you really insist...

Same thread - http://orioleshangout.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=792938


Agreed....2/18 may get him though.....I would offer that with a 9 million dollar player option.

That is 3 years. Why wouldn't Huff take the option, short of the team being a total train wreck.


I would give him 3/23. Just get it done.

There is no reason not to give him that contract. That isn't that expensive in this market and he fills a big need.

Ok, now you've come down a bit.


If i were the Orioles, i would put 2 offers on the table:

1) 2/18 with a 9 million third year option...Option vests if Huff gets 1050 plate appearances the first 2 years.

2) 3/23...Or i would offer him 3/21 with a 9 million dollar option or 2 million dollar buyout.(basically, however you would want to structure it)

Tell him he can pick whichever he wants and give him until Xmas to do it.

Huff signs with the Orioles for 3 years at $20m, after negotiations.

[thequick]

Drungo,

If you're talking fast-trackers by age 26 look up Nate Colbert, he was done by the time he was 29.....amazing!

[hoosiers]

The previous year, Jim Thome received a 6 year, $84 mm deal. Before Vlad even hit the market, he turned down 5 years, $75 mm to stay with the Expos. With that background, anybody could see that Vlad wasn't coming here for 5 years, $65 mm. I realize that markets change, but I stand by my position that the initial offer to Vlad simply wasn't smart, and was a lowball offer regardless of what competition the O's perceived was out there.

Who cares if it was lower than what he had previously turned down. Didn't Ponson re-sign with us for the same amount he considered a "lowball" offer after we had dealt him to the Giants? Didn't Juan Gonalez turn down a massive contract from Detroit to settle for less later in his career? Matt Harrington mis-judged his value three times during multiple drafts!

If you have the highest bid on the table for a matter of weeks, it is incredulous to me that someone believes it is a low ball offer. Was the Mets offer greater than the $5/$75M from Montreal? Did the Mets ever offer more than we did - and they were considered a finalist?

[hoosiers]

Saying "i have no issue with..." and actually giving him the 3 years, which you said i was doing, is a different thing.

I clearly stated 2 years.

It shouldn't be so difficult to admit you are wrong.

So our FO negotiated a better contract than you recommended. It's not a big thing.

[BaltimoreTerp]

It shouldn't be so difficult to admit you are wrong.

So our FO negotiated a better contract than you recommended. It's not a big thing.

Niiiiiice.

[mweb]

Exactly. This tells me that Tellem and his underlings Cuza and Bentz didn't deal with us in good faith. They kept us in the game long enough for another offer to come along. One possible interpretation is that Guerrero did not ever intend to come here. He refused requests to visit the city. Once two cities with a large Hispanic population got involved, Baltimore became an afterthought. Duquette, then with the New York Mets, was afforded every professional consideration that we should have been given but weren't.

Yep, I agree. Vlad had no intentions of becoming an Oriole imo. His agents tried to get us to bring up his price by using us, they made a counter offer that they had to know we wouldn't touch, but hoped we'd go up to help get a better deal elsewhere.

I do agree with Gesh that we should have set a deadline to avoid being used this way. And I agree with SG and others that we should have upped our offer, but where I disagree is by how much. 7/105 looks good in hindsight, but would have been pretty bad back then, especially considering we were bidding against ourselves.

[Frobby]

Who cares if it was lower than what he had previously turned down. Didn't Ponson re-sign with us for the same amount he considered a "lowball" offer after we had dealt him to the Giants? Didn't Juan Gonalez turn down a massive contract from Detroit to settle for less later in his career? Matt Harrington mis-judged his value three times during multiple drafts!

If you have the highest bid on the table for a matter of weeks, it is incredulous to me that someone believes it is a low ball offer. Was the Mets offer greater than the $5/$75M from Montreal? Did the Mets ever offer more than we did - and they were considered a finalist?

You aren't going to change my opinion on this one. If I were Vlad Guerrero or his agent, I would not have dignified 5/$65 mm with a counteroffer. And I don't know if he would have come to Baltimore or at least gotten serious in negotiations if the initial offer had been better, but I know one thing: he's not here, and we lost out on an opportunity to sign a player who in my opinion would have changed the destiny of this franchise over the last 4 years.

[Sports Guy]

It shouldn't be so difficult to admit you are wrong.

So our FO negotiated a better contract than you recommended. It's not a big thing.
I would rather have him for 2 years, than 3...Wouldn't you?

[mweb]

You aren't going to change my opinion on this one. If I were Vlad Guerrero or his agent, I would not have dignified 5/$65 mm with a counteroffer. And I don't know if he would have come to Baltimore or at least gotten serious in negotiations if the initial offer had been better, but I know one thing: he's not here, and we lost out on an opportunity to sign a player who in my opinion would have changed the destiny of this franchise over the last 4 years.

So you would not have dignified it with a counter offer despite no one else offering you anything close to that and with no one seemingly interested in doing so? That's interesting.

[geschinger]

You aren't going to change my opinion on this one. If I were Vlad Guerrero or his agent, I would not have dignified 5/$65 mm with a counteroffer. And I don't know if he would have come to Baltimore or at least gotten serious in negotiations if the initial offer had been better, but I know one thing: he's not here, and we lost out on an opportunity to sign a player who in my opinion would have changed the destiny of this franchise over the last 4 years.

Wow, I guess I really do not understand how a contract offer guaranteeing $65m over 5 years is not worth dignifying when $70m guaranteed over 5 years was good enough sign as quickly as he signed the Angels offer.

[mweb]

Wow, I guess I really do not understand how a contract offer guaranteeing $65m over 5 years is not worth dignifying when $70m guaranteed over 5 years was good enough sign as quickly as he signed the Angels offer.

Yeah, I don't get it either. Vlad isn't a good example of the O's lowballing.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, I don't get it either. Vlad isn't a good example of the O's lowballing.

I would have liked to have seen them come to the table with more to begin with, however it wasn't terrible.

It was the ending offer that was a joke.

[orioles119]

The Orioles should not have bid against themselves, something that seemingly was the case forever. That has been brought up countless times as well.

[mweb]

I would have liked to have seen them come to the table with more to begin with, however it wasn't terrible.

It was the ending offer that was a joke.

I wouldn't call it a joke considering no one even approached that until the Angels came out of nowhere and signed him without the O's getting a chance to up their offer. However, like I said, they should have went higher and set a deadline, although I doubt that would have worked either.

[Sports Guy]

I wouldn't call it a joke considering no one even approached that until the Angels came out of nowhere and signed him without the O's getting a chance to up their offer. However, like I said, they should have went higher and set a deadline, although I doubt that would have worked either.
I still think 6/90-96 gets him in an Orioles uni.

But we will never know.

[mweb]

I still think 6/90-96 gets him in an Orioles uni.

But we will never know.

I don't think so, but as you say, we'll never know. And we've both known each other's position on this for over 2 years now, and pretty much everyone else has weighed in with their opinions in the past on this, yet we keep on talking about it.:D

[hoosiers]

You aren't going to change my opinion on this one. If I were Vlad Guerrero or his agent, I would not have dignified 5/$65 mm with a counteroffer. And I don't know if he would have come to Baltimore or at least gotten serious in negotiations if the initial offer had been better, but I know one thing: he's not here, and we lost out on an opportunity to sign a player who in my opinion would have changed the destiny of this franchise over the last 4 years.

Well, Frobby, I'll try one last time.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/angels/2004-01-11-guerrero-angels_x.htm

Enjoy this article. Our public offer, on the table for weeks with a 7/$105M counteroffer, was 5/$65M. The Mets final offer was a three year deal that maxed at 5/$71M and he signed ultimately for 5/$75M.

http://reds.enquirer.com/2004/01/11/red1mlbin.html

To call our initial offer "undignified" is really a massive stretch. Unbelievably, the second finalist in the Vlad sweepstakes, entering AFTER our initial offer, tried to entice Vlad with only three guaranteed years!

And yet we have quotes from Os officials that we offered 5/$67.5M and 6/$78M with an expected endgame of 6/$90M.

It's really quite simple. It's easy to write Vlad would have changed the face of the franchise - he would have changed the face of 29 other franchises.

Vlad .... did .... not ..... want .... to .... play .... in .... Baltimore.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think so, but as you say, we'll never know. And we've both known each other's position on this for over 2 years now, and pretty much everyone else has weighed in with their opinions in the past on this, yet we keep on talking about it.:D

Mine as well start trying to turn Democrats into republicans...We would probably get just as far. :)

[Sports Guy]

Vlad .... did .... not ..... want .... to .... play .... in .... Baltimore...
.....for the money we offered him.

[Mackus]

Well, Frobby, I'll try one last time.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/angels/2004-01-11-guerrero-angels_x.htm

Enjoy this article. Our public offer, on the table for weeks with a 7/$105M counteroffer, was 5/$65M. The Mets final offer was a three year deal that maxed at 5/$71M and he signed ultimately for 5/$75M.

http://reds.enquirer.com/2004/01/11/red1mlbin.html

To call our initial offer "undignified" is really a massive stretch. Unbelievably, the second finalist in the Vlad sweepstakes, entering AFTER our initial offer, tried to entice Vlad with only three guaranteed years!

And yet we have quotes from Os officials that we offered 5/$67.5M and 6/$78M with an expected endgame of 6/$90M.

It's really quite simple. It's easy to write Vlad would have changed the face of the franchise - he would have changed the face of 29 other franchises.

Vlad .... did .... not ..... want .... to .... play .... in .... Baltimore.I agree 100%. The initial offer was low, but the way things played out, its obvious that the only way Vlad would have ended up in Baltimore is if our offer completely blew any others out of the water. We would have had to beat any other offer by multiple years and multiple millions of dollars per year to have a shot, and the obvious evidence of this is that he didn't even give us the chance to improve our offer before signing with the Angels even though he knew we would.

[Sports Guy]

I agree 100%. The initial offer was low, but the way things played out, its obvious that the only way Vlad would have ended up in Baltimore is if our offer completely blew any others out of the water. We would have had to beat any other offer by multiple years and multiple millions of dollars per year to have a shot, and the obvious evidence of this is that he didn't even give us the chance to improve our offer before signing with the Angels even though he knew we would.

Hmmm...kind of like Miggy.

[mweb]

He actually signed for 5/67 with a club option for 15M(3M buyout). .1M bonuses for AS selection or silver slugger and bonuses based on MVP voting.

[mweb]

I agree 100%. The initial offer was low, but the way things played out, its obvious that the only way Vlad would have ended up in Baltimore is if our offer completely blew any others out of the water. We would have had to beat any other offer by multiple years and multiple millions of dollars per year to have a shot, and the obvious evidence of this is that he didn't even give us the chance to improve our offer before signing with the Angels even though he knew we would.

And that's exactly what we did until the Angels swooped in and signed him. Plus, as you said, we were not given the opportunity to blow away the Angels offer.

[Sports Guy]

And that's exactly what we did until the Angels swooped in and signed him. Plus, as you said, we were not given the opportunity to blow away the Angels offer.

But what we don't know is if the Orioles told Vlad that 6/78 was their best offer and they weren't budging no matter what.

We know they looked at him as a luxury, so maybe that was the case.

[Mackus]

Hmmm...kind of like Miggy.Exactly!

And I don't think the Orioles were going to top out at 6/$78M. I think they easily would have upped it to 6/$90M and maybe even a 7th year if they were given the chance to.

[Sports Guy]

Exactly!

And I don't think the Orioles were going to top out at 6/$78M. I think they easily would have upped it to 6/$90M and maybe even a 7th year if they were given the chance to.
They should have done it anyway.

Should have said 6/90 as we sat there.

Bidding against ourselves or not is meaningless.

We wouldn't have been doing that...We would have been bidding to win Vlad.

[mweb]

But what we don't know is if the Orioles told Vlad that 6/78 was their best offer and they weren't budging no matter what.

We know they looked at him as a luxury, so maybe that was the case.

We've gone through this many times, so I don't care to have this go on forever, my only point on this is:

If you're Vlad's agent, even if the O's tell you that's there best offer(when they had no serious competetion), when you get a similiar offer from another team, wouldn't you go back to the O's and at least give them a last chance if you had serious interest in signing your player there? It's not like that's a lot of work, it's just making a call.

It just doesn't make any sense for his agents to not give the O's a chance to counter if they seriously thought of Baltimore as a destination for Vlad.

[Sports Guy]

We've gone through this many times, so I don't care to have this go on forever, my only point on this is:

If you're Vlad's agent, even if the O's tell you that's there best offer(when they had no serious competetion), when you get a similiar offer from another team, wouldn't you go back to the O's and at least give them a last chance if you had serious interest in signing your player there? It's not like that's a lot of work, it's just making a call.

It just doesn't make any sense for his agents to not give the O's a chance to counter if they seriously thought of Baltimore as a destination for Vlad.

Well, maybe he got tired of dealing with the team?

Who knows...All i am saying is that we should have offered more when we had the chance.

The Orioles admitted that he was a luxury, not a neccassity. Had they felt the other way, maybe he is here.

They didn't offer him enough money and they didn't recognize how much he would have meant to us. Both of those things are undeniable.

[Mackus]

How can there be 6 pages of comments, and no one has made the point of how the O's really screwed up with Ryan??

Of course I am talking about how the O's foolishly installed Ryan as the closer prior to the end of 2004 season.... prior to negoiating a deal with him... he would have been a lot cheaper to sign to an extension, if you were dealing with him as your set-up man vs your closer.I don't think a handful of save opportunities at the end of the season made any difference with Ryan. It was obvious he was gonna be the closer in 2006, and after the year he had in 2005, he (rightfully so) decided he wouldn't sign an extension during the season in hopes of striking gold as a closer. There was never a time where we could have signed him to a 3/$15M type deal.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think a handful of save opportunities at the end of the season made any difference with Ryan. It was obvious he was gonna be the closer in 2006, and after the year he had in 2005, he (rightfully so) decided he wouldn't sign an extension during the season in hopes of striking gold as a closer. There was never a time where we could have signed him to a 3/$15M type deal.Sure it did.

You made no bones about it. You took away any possible competition.

You said, this is what you are.

And to think we never could have signed him to a 3/15 contract is absurd.

I bet he would have signed that contract(actually even less than that) in July of 2005.

And i certainly think he signs that in that offseason..In fact, didn't he say he would have?

[Mackus]

And i certainly think he signs that in that offseason..In fact, didn't he say he would have?No, he made it very clear that he was going to make a run at getting huge closer's money, which he did. And theres absolutely no chance he'd sign that in July of '05, only 2 months from free agency and having an All Star season as a closer under his belt. If you meant July of '04, then maybe, but that would have been a terribly stupid risk to take at the time, considering that was really the first time he'd ever been dominant before for any extended period of time. It'd be like giving Daniel Cabrera a huge contract extension in September if he has 2 good months in a row.

And come on, theres no way he wasn't going to be the closer in 2005. You'd have to be a complete idiot to not realize that was coming, even if he didn't get a trial run at the end of 2004.

[Sports Guy]

No, he made it very clear that he was going to make a run at getting huge closer's money, which he did. And theres absolutely no chance he'd sign that in July of '05, only 2 months from free agency and having an All Star season as a closer under his belt. If you meant July of '04, then maybe, but that would have been a terribly stupid risk to take at the time, considering that was really the first time he'd ever been dominant before for any extended period of time. It'd be like giving Daniel Cabrera a huge contract extension in September if he has 2 good months in a row.

And come on, theres no way he wasn't going to be the closer in 2005. You'd have to be a complete idiot to not realize that was coming, even if he didn't get a trial run at the end of 2004.

Yea sorry, meant July of 2004...And yes, a 3/10 type extension then would have been very smart.

It doesn;t matter...You don't hand the title to him at that point in the season.

By him actually getting the title, his value went up tremendously.

[Mackus]

Yea sorry, meant July of 2004...And yes, a 3/10 type extension then would have been very smart.

It doesn;t matter...You don't hand the title to him at that point in the season.

By him actually getting the title, his value went up tremendously.
His value to what? Maybe as a trade piece, but his value in his own mind (what he would have signed for) was already set. He wasn't going to sign, even if he was still just a setup man on a team with a godawful closer (Julio).

[Sports Guy]

His value to what? Maybe as a trade piece, but his value in his own mind (what he would have signed for) was already set. He wasn't going to sign, even if he was still just a setup man on a team with a godawful closer (Julio).

I disagree...As you said, he hadn't been consistent...He definitely signs in JUly of 2004 and i think you could have gotten him in that offseason as well.

[Mackus]

I disagree...As you said, he hadn't been consistent...He definitely signs in JUly of 2004 and i think you could have gotten him in that offseason as well.Oh, I agree he signs in July of '04. I think that at the time that would have been a very risky move though, hindsight is great, but he was pretty much a lefthanded bullpen version of Daniel Cabrera before 2004. It would have paid off, but I think the risk of that move would have been incredibly high.

I don't think he signs in the offseason before 2005 even if he's not given the closer trial at the end of 2004 though. I think at that point he would have realized at some point in '05 he'd get a closers shot or even if he didn't could market himself as a closer if he had the type of season he ended up having. He was putting all of his chips in his own basket, and it paid off for him.

[mweb]

Its amazing to me that people still can not understand this lol... yes, coming to Baltimore was not Vlad's 1st choice... however, since he countered with 7yrs $105M, it showed there was a price that would bring him here.

It is still laughable that we did not offer 6yrs $90-$96M.

But enough about Vlad.. its history, and I already have at least 200 posts about that....

How can there be 6 pages of comments, and no one has made the point of how the O's really screwed up with Ryan??

Of course I am talking about how the O's foolishly installed Ryan as the closer prior to the end of 2004 season.... prior to negoiating a deal with him... he would have been a lot cheaper to sign to an extension, if you were dealing with him as your set-up man vs your closer.


Countering with a price that they knew would not be met does not mean he would have came to BMore. Did they request that from the Angels? It likely means they set a outlandish price in an attempt to get us to increase our offer so they could get a better offer elsewhere. Or to at least keep us involved to provide leverage with other teams and to keep a last resort instead of just flat out saying no. That is clearly a possibility.

[Sports Guy]

Countering with a price that they knew would not be met does not mean he would have came to BMore. Did they request that from the Angels? It likely means they set a outlandish price in an attempt to get us to increase our offer so they could get a better offer elsewhere. Or to at least keep us involved to provide leverage with other teams and to keep a last resort instead of just flat out saying no. That is clearly a possibility.

So, you think if we had said yes to the 7/105 offer that he would have said, nevermind?

[geschinger]

So, you think if we had said yes to the 7/105 offer that he would have said, nevermind?

I suspect he'd of likely tried to drag out the process hoping to get another team involved. Baltimore was clearly a place he did not want to be. If our offer blew everything else away that he was offered then maybe we could of gotten him to come play for a team he clearly did not want to play for. But I suspect if we had said, sure we'll do 7/105 Cuza and Bentz would of said something like Tellem would get with us to try to nail everything down and then they'd of delayed and frantically tried to leverage the offer to get a team interested in a place where Vlad actually had an interest in playing.

[BaltimoreTerp]

So, you think if we had said yes to the 7/105 offer that he would have said, nevermind?

He probably would have tried to wait and get someone else to go that high (while Hangouters screamed that we should keep going higher and higher and quit low-balling him). That was Moreno's first year in Anaheim, so he really wanted to make that splash, if I'm remembering correctly.

If not, well, that $30 million difference can buy a LOT of private flights for one's mother, or home to the Dominican, so who knows?

[mweb]

So, you think if we had said yes to the 7/105 offer that he would have said, nevermind?

I agree with what Gesh said. However, that's not the point. The point is they were probably 99% certain the O's wouldn't meet that price, so them countering with an offer they knew wasn't going to be made is not necessarily a sign that he was willing to play for the O's.

In fact, I think it's more of a sign that he was not willing to come to the O's. No other team was going after Vlad for awhile, yet his agents were willing to keep their asking price at 7/105 for the O's. The Mets came in with a mediocre offer(did team Vlad ask for 7/105 from the Mets? I couldn't find anything), yet Vlad and his agents remained patient, waiting for anyone else to jump in. So the Angels jump in offer 5/70, and they accept quickly without even asking the O's to up their offer.

If you really think about this instead of saying what if the O's had offered Vlad 7/105 which no one including Vlad and his agents thought was realistic, all signs point to him having no interest in being an Oriole.

But yeah, if we offered 7/105, we probably would have gotten him, too bad that wasn't really realistic at the time. That would have been 4 years and 75M more than any other offer. Instead we offered 3 years and 48M more than any other offer that I recall, that is called blowing the competition out of the water.

Arrghhh, I said I wouldn't get back into this! Everytime if you want out, they pull you back in.:D

[mweb]

To clarify a little, SG, I understand that if you were the owner, 7/105 would have been realistic, but with PA as the owner, it wasn't. I wish you were the owner, well I really wish I was the owner, then I would give you, Drungo, and others job in baseball operations.:D

BTW, another possible reason for Vlad's agents not giving the O's a chance to up their offer:

They didn't want to get in trouble with the players union. If the O's offered him 6/90, and he still signed with the Angels for 5/70, the union would have been upset.

[Zaimoku]

The Vlad example is twisted ridiculously - "tell us what it takes to sign you in orange and black" (???) - when does that happen in early negotations.

I hope that's a rhetorical question. Nobody around here has a clue about what happens in early *baseball* negotiations.

[hoosiers]

.....for the money we offered him.

I've been away for nearly a day - so I just wanted to offer this final thought on those who say $ was a big deal.

1. The Os apparently had a last offer of 6/$78 on the table.
2. Vlad's agents did not consider the Orioles among the two final bidders.
3. One final bidder only offered three guaranteed years.
4. Our FO found out we had been eliminated in the bidding through the press.

Vlad and his people were not interested in the Orioles raising their offer - even though we had a sixth year on the table. We were never given an opportunity to go to 5/$80 or 6/$90 .... that's a pretty good sign that Vlad had found the city and $ he was looking for and stopped the bidding.

[mweb]

Yeah, Hoosiers, I think location was a much bigger deal to Vlad than money was. I thought I made some good points in my last couple posts, but no response from the opposition, oh well.