THe Sun states the obvious (re: trade deadline) [Archive]

blueberryale77

07-30-2007, 08:56 PM

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 09:00 PM

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 09:01 PM

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-os0730,0,6450045.story

In short...

a) no trades at all is likely
b) no interest in the guys they want to dump
c) wrist injury may have stopped a Tejada deal
d) recent win streak did make them less interested in trading (sorry SG, I overestimated their intelligence again!)
e) they don't want to trade "regulars" Millar and Payton for mid-level prospects (I'm ok with this in the case of Millar) and don't think their presence is blocking any prospectsI am not sure if Millar was only getting mid level guys or if Zrebiac through that in there.

Also would be interesting to see how they define mid level.

They should dump Payton for anything.

Saying they can't trade Bradford because of Ray's injury just continues to show how short sighted they are.

blueberryale77

07-30-2007, 09:03 PM

I am shocked! Shocked i tell you!

Boy, another thread i start, get blasted and turn out right...I will take apologies in the form of written letters this time. :D

I did not blast you, I just stated very politely and respectfully (and wrongly) that I didn't think the FO was dumb enough to be influenced by a few games one way or the other. ;)

BaltimoreTerp

07-30-2007, 09:04 PM

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-os0730,0,6450045.story

In short...

a) no trades at all is likely
b) no interest in the guys they want to dump
c) wrist injury may have stopped a Tejada deal
d) recent win streak did make them less interested in trading (sorry SG, I overestimated their intelligence again!)
e) they don't want to trade "regulars" Millar and Payton for mid-level prospects (I'm ok with this in the case of Millar) and don't think their presence is blocking any prospects

This is the problem with getting too frustrated about the deadline, especially at our front office. Either the guys we want to trade other teams don't want, the guys other teams want we don't want (and shouldn't want in most cases) to trade, or the guys both sides want to be traded are hurt.

I think that if we could get something for Millar we should do it (if anything we could just Bordick him for next year anyway), and just dump Trachsel for whatever we can get. But if nothing gets done, it is truly not as big a deal as it will be played by many.

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 09:06 PM

This is the problem with getting too frustrated about the deadline, especially at our front office. Either the guys we want to trade other teams don't want, the guys other teams want we don't want (and shouldn't want in most cases) to trade, or the guys both sides want to be traded are hurt.

I think that if we could get something for Millar we should do it (if anything we could just Bordick him for next year anyway), and just dump Trachsel for whatever we can get. But if nothing gets done, it is truly not as big a deal as it will be played by many.

The Orioles also aren't trying to move the guys they could get good stuff for and they aren't willing to eat salary i am sure.

UMDTerrapins

07-30-2007, 09:08 PM

I'm glad they came out with this early.......help ease the blow tomorrow. I actually think it's an attempt at posturing. But we'll probably still do nothing.

33rdst

07-30-2007, 09:08 PM

BaltimoreTerp

07-30-2007, 09:09 PM

The Orioles also aren't trying to move the guys they could get good stuff for and they aren't willing to eat salary i am sure.

But outside Millar, who falls under that category that we SHOULD trade?

Don't say Roberts and Bedard either. Tell me what someone would really give us for Cabrera, Bradford or Walker that would make it worth us weakening those areas of the team?

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 09:11 PM

But outside Millar, who falls under that category that we SHOULD trade?

Don't say Roberts and Bedard either. Tell me what someone would really give us for Cabrera, Bradford or Walker that would make it worth us weakening those areas of the team?
Bradford and Walker could fetch a top 5-10 prospect IF we pay half of the their contract or so.

Not sure about DCab but i am not talking about him anyway.

Payton should be dealt for anything...Trax same thing(or he should be released).

Why Not?

07-30-2007, 09:12 PM

I don't think the trade deadline means much for the group of guys that we are trying to unload. Lots of trades of players of Millar and Payton's ilk come about in August. I'm not saying it will happen, but there IS still time.

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 09:14 PM

I don't think the trade deadline means much for the group of guys that we are trying to unload. Lots of trades of players of Millar and Payton's ilk come about in August. I'm saying it will happen, but there IS still time.
I do agree with this but obviously, it becomes a lot harder.

PoorMike

07-30-2007, 09:24 PM

I don't think winning affected their trading stance that much. I think that's just a way to spin it. The fact is: Ray is injured, Trax sux, Miggy is banged up,Huff sux, JG sux....but the VP can't put that in the press. Instead, he says that Payton/Millar were going to bring back some do-do, and that thhe other targets were our core players. I really don't think the winning streak had much to do with it at all.

square634

07-30-2007, 09:26 PM

Ray is injured

And how should that affect our trading strategy as far as developing for the future?

Dr. FLK

07-30-2007, 09:27 PM

I know they couldn't have gotten much for these guys. But, couldn't they have gotten creative? Couldn't they have packaged Payton, Bradford and come cash for something from the Mets? They could have added some mid-level prospects. That's just one example. I think mostly it gets frustrating because other teams seem to find ways to improve and climb out of the cellar, while we tread water. I keep hoping that eventually they'll do something exciting, but nothing like that ever happens. At least ATL fans can be pleased tonight.

Dr. FLK

07-30-2007, 09:27 PM

And how should that affect our trading strategy as far as developing for the future?

We can't deal him now, because he is hurt. I think that's what he meant.

BaltimoreTerp

07-30-2007, 09:28 PM

I do agree with this but obviously, it becomes a lot harder.

Not really.

If someone wants to block someone like Trachsel or Payton through waivers, we let them go.

Minor leaguers don't have to go through waivers, do they?

Dr. FLK

07-30-2007, 09:29 PM

Not really.

If someone wants to block someone like Trachsel or Payton through waivers, we let them go.

Minor leaguers don't have to go through waivers, do they?

I think anyone on the 40-man roster does. Is that correct?

PoorMike

07-30-2007, 09:29 PM

I do agree with this but obviously, it becomes a lot harder.

Would trax even clear waivers? There's not much risk in claiming him.

Dr. FLK

07-30-2007, 09:30 PM

If someone puts in a claim, and we say "he's all yours", what happens? Do they have to take on the remainder of his contract? Even if it's a multi-year deal?

PoorMike

07-30-2007, 09:32 PM

Not really.

If someone wants to block someone like Trachsel or Payton through waivers, we let them go.

Minor leaguers don't have to go through waivers, do they?

Minor leaguers could be PTBNL.

I think the O's would pull Payton back if he were claimed.

TyCobb

07-30-2007, 09:32 PM

If someone puts in a claim, and we say "he's all yours", what happens? Do they have to take on the remainder of his contract? Even if it's a multi-year deal?

I remember reading somewhere Steve Phillips claimed a few hundred players one year. So I don't think they have to make a deal happen.

PoorMike

07-30-2007, 09:33 PM

If someone puts in a claim, and we say "he's all yours", what happens? Do they have to take on the remainder of his contract? Even if it's a multi-year deal?

Yep. No one is going to claim JG or Huff though.

Baltimoron

07-30-2007, 09:33 PM

I am shocked! Shocked i tell you!

Boy, another thread i start, get blasted and turn out right...I will take apologies in the form of written letters this time. :D

Wow, I almost thought you were being serious.

Baltimoron

07-30-2007, 09:35 PM

A primer:

Revocable Waivers

A player placed on waivers is offered to the other teams over a window of 47 hours (starting at 2 p.m. EST and ending at 1 p.m. two days later). After the trading deadline on July 31 and before the end of the World Series, players on the 40 man rosters must pass waivers before being traded.

* If another team makes a claim on the player, the team waiving the player may take him back or give him to the team making the claim.

* If two teams claim him teams in the same league have priority over those in the other league. After this consideration, the team with the worst record upon expiration of the waiver window is the team whose claim is considered valid. For all players waived in the first month of the season, the previous year's team records are used to determine waiver claim priority instead of the current year's records.

* If no team claims him, the player is said to have cleared waivers for the remainder of the waiver period, and the waiving team may keep, trade, or release the waived player, or they may send to the minors if he doesn't have five full years of service time.

* A team may only post a player and pull him back once during a waiver period, so if a player is posted for waivers twice by the same team in the same waiver period, the team which claims him the second time gets him with no possibility for the initial team to pull back. August is its own waiver period, so a team may only post and pull a player once between the trading deadline and September.

link (http://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/wiki/index.php/MLB_Rules_and_Procedures)

PoorMike

07-30-2007, 09:36 PM

I remember reading somewhere Steve Phillips claimed a few hundred players one year. So I don't think they have to make a deal happen.

He probably only clamed guys that he really wanted and guys that the other teams wanted to keep. I think if you claim a guy, you have to be willing to take him. Teams have gotten stuck with guys that they've claimed.

BaltimoreTerp

07-30-2007, 09:43 PM

If someone puts in a claim, and we say "he's all yours", what happens? Do they have to take on the remainder of his contract? Even if it's a multi-year deal?

Yep. It's the same as regular waivers.

Before Phillips, there was an unwritten rule where no team claimed other players when they went through waivers during that time, because you didn't want a situation where you wanted to make a deal and the other owner would block you. Then, showing the amazing baseball acumen that has made him part of the regular rotation of Baseball Tonight as opposed to having a real job, Steve Phillips started claiming everything that wasn't nailed down, and that was that.

Reason Infinity+1 that his opinion on matters should be taken with a grain of salt the size of a small gas-giant planet.

orioles119

07-30-2007, 09:44 PM

Bradford and Walker could fetch a top 5-10 prospect IF we pay half of the their contract or so.

That's not gonna happen - the O's signed these guys to 3 year deals - that makes them unmoveable this year at least.

BaltimoreTerp

07-30-2007, 09:50 PM

Bradford and Walker could fetch a top 5-10 prospect IF we pay half of the their contract or so.
We signed these guys as long-term bullpen help. That's why we gave them those contracts.

We aren't going to trade them anyway, but we definitely aren't going to do that AND pay the other team money. Nor should we since unless we get a very good hitting prospect it doesn't make much sense.

Payton should be dealt for anything...Trax same thing(or he should be released).
That's all well and good, but we aren't going to get anything for Trachsel, and likely not Payton.

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 10:02 PM

Pathetic absolutely pathetic. There is no excuse for inaction, none. We've got moveable pieces. MacPhail just doesn't have the balls to trade them...

A 14 year old could have evaluated this team in a month. Hell a 14 yr old might do a better job in the FO than the guys that are there...

They might as well start having DCab take grounders at 1st... :mad:

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 10:19 PM

We aren't going to trade them anyway, but we definitely aren't going to do that AND pay the other team money. Nor should we since unless we get a very good hitting prospect it doesn't make much sense.
If the right deal is there, we shouldn't even think about hesitated paying some of their contract.

That's all well and good, but we aren't going to get anything for Trachsel, and likely not Payton.Well, if we can't trad Trax, release him.

I am sure we could deal Payton if we would pay 50-75% of his contract.

Hank Scorpio

07-30-2007, 10:20 PM

When the Orioles pursued a trade for Texas Rangers slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira, the Severna Park native who is reportedly headed to the Atlanta Braves, they were told it would take ace pitcher Erik Bedard and nothing less, according to two team sources.

From Zrebiec's Sun article.

Surprise!!!!!!! :rolleyes:

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 10:24 PM

From Zrebiec's Sun article.

Surprise!!!!!!! :rolleyes:

They could be lying. I'll trust BB and Heyman over the O's front office. Heyman isn't one to make up stuff. Saying it would have taken Erik Bedard and nothing less sure would deter any blame from them, wouldn't it? MacPhail just didn't want to risk losing any pitching for what he though would be a rental. I'm sure the O's will have sticker shock with Tex in 2008 anyway... :rolleyes:

FarmSystem

07-30-2007, 10:30 PM

This team needs to realize that any prospect will have a better chance of helping this team in 2009 and 2010 than players like Millar and Payton. This team comes off as very lazy in my eyes when they keep adding stopgaps and keeping them. I'm tired of this organization passing these players off as some sort of progress.

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 10:30 PM

If the right deal is there, we shouldn't even think about hesitated paying some of their contract.
Well, if we can't trad Trax, release him.

I am sure we could deal Payton if we would pay 50-75% of his contract.

You're right about all of that. But the caveat is "if the right deal is in place."

There are so many teams that are kind of in contention right now, especially in the NL, that I think they are a little wary of giving away a lot. Compound that with the way contracts are going in the league good cheap young talent is becoming even more valuable than ever.

Yes we could get something for Payton if we paid 75% of his contract but if I am the Cubs (or any other team really) am I going to give up anything that we would really, REALLY want for Jay Payton even at a huge clearance sale discount?

With the exception of the Braves, they will regret that deal.

The Only pieces the Orioles have, right now, that we can trade and get top dollar for are:

Bedard
Markakis
Roberts

Ray and Tejada should be on that list, but recent injuries have hurt those values.

Millar, Payton are two guys we should look to move. Payton especially. But to think we are going to get something extremely significant for either of them is a little off in my opinion.

Gibbons and Trax need not to be here anymore one way or another.

But don;t let the Orioles likely inactivity fool you. I think it is going to be pretty minor around baseball this year. Tex is the marquee move, and then there will be a lot of minor ones.

bigbird

07-30-2007, 10:31 PM

I'm hearing Payton and Trachsel could both be traded.

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 10:31 PM

They could be lying. I'll trust BB and Heyman over the O's front office. Heyman isn't one to make up stuff. Saying it would have taken Erik Bedard and nothing less sure would deter any blame from them, wouldn't it? MacPhail just didn't want to risk losing any pitching for what he though would be a rental. I'm sure the O's will have sticker shock with Tex in 2008 anyway... :rolleyes:

Who knows...It could be true.

Doesn't matter...DCab, Liz and Hoey isn't a slam dunk either.

TyCobb

07-30-2007, 10:32 PM

I'm hearing Payton and Trachsel could both be traded.

Which teams....any more news?

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 10:32 PM

I'm hearing Payton and Trachsel could both be traded.

This would at least be something.

Is this all that is possible IYO??

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 10:34 PM

I'm hearing Payton and Trachsel could both be traded.

We've got to do something. We don't have an excuse to do nothing. We are below .500 and in 4th place. It's not like we're the Red Sox and don't really need anything...

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 10:34 PM

Good, Payton and trax don't fit in here. But don't be surprised when we aren't getting a lot back.

We just won't. But thats okay really. These guys don't fit here and you need to move them.

FarmSystem

07-30-2007, 10:37 PM

Minor salary relief and a long shot prospect are better than nothing.

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 10:38 PM

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 10:38 PM

Good, Payton and trax don't fit in here. But don't be surprised when we aren't getting a lot back.

We just won't. But thats okay really. These guys don't fit here and you need to move them.
I agree 100% with this post.

Here is another way to look at it...We any money we save, we can use that to put towards Wieters...Not that we NEED the money for that but still, we can use it for that anyway.

Plus, we gain their roster spots....Trachsel is basically dealt for Olson...Payton dealt for Knott.

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 10:39 PM

Minor salary relief and a long shot prospect are better than nothing.

Exactly.

We need to understand that trading these guys isn't about getting back huge value. Take a flier on a guy, make permanent room on the team for Knott and Olson.

This would be cutting weight that doesn't fit in the future.

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 10:42 PM

I agree 100% with this post.

Here is another way to look at it...We any money we save, we can use that to put towards Wieters...Not that we NEED the money for that but still, we can use it for that anyway.

Plus, we gain their roster spots....Trachsel is basically dealt for Olson...Payton dealt for Knott.

Great minds SG (for tonight anyway :p )

Yeah, the only gem out there is Tex. We weren't going to get him. There is really nothing else out there. Gibbons has been so bad moving him is next to impossible. Injuries to Tejada and Ray will keep them here. Not a lot out there.

We aren't going to be getting anything back really. But this would be a move for the future.

UMDTerrapins

07-30-2007, 10:44 PM

That Sun article is total posturing. The timing of it made no sense if it was genuine.

The yard

07-30-2007, 10:44 PM

Well ridding ourselves of Payton and Trax would certainly make me happy. I was against the signing of Payton from day one and it was clear Trax wasn't going to be anything better than a fifth starter. Now we can hopefully get Olson up here and see what he is capable of doing over a longer time period.

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 10:45 PM

Great minds SG (for tonight anyway :p )

Yeah, the only gem out there is Tex. We weren't going to get him. There is really nothing else out there. Gibbons has been so bad moving him is next to impossible. Injuries to Tejada and Ray will keep them here. Not a lot out there.

We aren't going to be getting anything back really. But this would be a move for the future.

I think Bradford and Walker are pitching too well for the Orioles to justify(to themselves) taking on half of their contract...If they would, i bet we would get a solid return back.

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 10:49 PM

I think Bradford and Walker are pitching too well for the Orioles to justify taking on half of their contract...If they would, i bet we would get a solid return back.
I keep hearing this "solid return" phrase. What does it mean? What players in our system would you regard as solid return for Walker or Bradford?

clapdiddy

07-30-2007, 10:52 PM

Please, please, please let it be so! I would love to see both Trachsel and Payton gone. If we can just gain those roster spots, I would be happy. We are going to have 2 roster spots next year taken up by Gibbons and Huff, so we need to find a way to find out if Knott can fit into the right-handed outfielder/bench player role.

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 10:52 PM

I keep hearing this "solid return" phrase. What does it mean? What players in our system would you regard as solid return for Walker or Bradford?The offensive version of a guy like Hoey.

A guy who is young, cheap and could be a very good contributor for years to come and maybe, just maybe, you strike gold and end up getting a guy who develops into a future AS.

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 10:55 PM

I think Bradford and Walker are pitching too well for the Orioles to justify(to themselves) taking on half of their contract...If they would, i bet we would get a solid return back.

Yeah, but why do that? Walker and Bradford have pitched well. We don;t really have anyone better in the minors right now. So lets hold on to them.

There is no real need to move them right now. There is no one or two guys that are sitting out there that equate to Walker Bradford and 50% of their contracts.

Walker and Bradford still fit here for the rest of this year and next year. Payton and Trax do not.

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 10:57 PM

Yeah, but why do that? Walker and Bradford have pitched well. We don;t really have anyone better in the minors right now. So lets hold on to them.

There is no real need to move them right now. There is no one or two guys that are sitting out there that equate to Walker Bradford and 50% of their contracts.

Walker and Bradford still fit here for the rest of this year and next year. Payton and Trax do not.

This is the wrong attitude though.

Who cares if there is no one better right now.

The point is, if you can get that 1 or 2 very solid prospects, so long as you take on 50% of their contract, you do it.

My point is i doubt the Orioles are willing to take on money for these guys.

And you haven't even seen Walker's name mentioned at all.

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 11:00 PM

Yeah, but why do that? Walker and Bradford have pitched well. We don;t really have anyone better in the minors right now. So lets hold on to them.

There is no real need to move them right now. There is no one or two guys that are sitting out there that equate to Walker Bradford and 50% of their contracts.

Walker and Bradford still fit here for the rest of this year and next year. Payton and Trax do not.

I have no problem trading Bradford when we could replace him with a guy like Jim Johnson or even a Rule V pick such as Mike MacDonald from the Jays...

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 11:00 PM

Rex Thunder

07-30-2007, 11:01 PM

I am shocked! Shocked i tell you!

Boy, another thread i start, get blasted and turn out right...I will take apologies in the form of written letters this time. :D

No offense man, but you're only right if your premise was agreed with. I didn't think the Orioles should make any major trades unless it was either FOR Teixeira, or to get rid of Tejada- and the reasons those didn't happen are pretty obvious.

The team didn't need to be blown up, and I'm glad they didn't rush into a deal just for the sake of dealing. I know there was a lot of talk between them and some other teams, but the fact that they didn't pull the trigger, may end up being the best deal they made, or DIDN'T make.

Past decisions turning out wrong doesn't mean suddenly that taking different ACTION will change the luck of our team.

This team IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY from contending. Can we please have some faith in this front office. McPhail has been on board a couple of months, and only time will tell WHO IS RIGHT on the team's lack of moves at this trade deadline.

UMDTerrapins

07-30-2007, 11:01 PM

The more I think about it, the more I feel that this story was fed to the press in order to send a message. MacPhail has already said that he has the impression that the other GMs are trying to see if they can pull a fast one on the new guy in town. They expect that he'll feel pressured to make moves for PR's sake. I'm guessing that the FO is not getting the type of offers and dialog that they want. They feed this story to sell the notion that they will be ok with making no moves. Nonsense. They're raising the stakes and calling the bluff. Good for them! In the end, they'll probably make one move, maybe two. Nothing major. But you have to play the game to try and get the best offer you can. I hope this is the case. really, why else would you tell the press that we're not likely to make a move 20 hours prior to the deadline? So you can save the receptionist from dealing with those pesky phone calls all day? Come on...like the whole baseball community doesn't know that we're open for business.

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 11:03 PM

The offensive version of a guy like Hoey.

A guy who is young, cheap and could be a very good contributor for years to come and maybe, just maybe, you strike gold and end up getting a guy who develops into a future AS.Well since we don't have that in our system unless you mean Reimold, Rowell or maybe Snyder then give me an example from some one else's system.

The yard

07-30-2007, 11:03 PM

I see your point SG.

But on my list of guys to move Walker and Bradford are well beneath Trax and Payton.

These are guys that are still good and still fit in the team right now. So I have no problem keeping them.

Unilke the other two. Yeah we would get something back if we did that and maybe the Orioles should have actively shopped them more. But I won't be upset if they are here at the end of the week.

I agree 100%. I have never really been opposed to having solid veteran arms in the bullpen. However, relievers come and go and if you can get the right deal for these guys then a move has to be made. But like you said if they don't get dealt I will not fuss over it.

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 11:05 PM

Well since we don't have that in our system unless you mean Reimold, Rowell or maybe Snyder then give me an example from some one else's system.

I'll give you two - Nick Evans from the Mets and Joe Koshanksy in the Rockies system...

Tomkingsize

07-30-2007, 11:05 PM

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 11:05 PM

I have no problem trading Bradford when we could replace him with a guy like Jim Johnson or even a Rule V pick such as Mike MacDonald from the Jays...Yeah and we could replace Walker with Doyne too.:rolleyes:

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 11:08 PM

Yeah and we could replace Walker with Doyne too.:rolleyes:

Have you even looked at their GB stats?

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 11:08 PM

This team IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY from contending. Yes they are.
Can we please have some faith in this front officeWhy? Have they earned this?

square634

07-30-2007, 11:09 PM

Yeah and we could replace Walker with Doyne too.

Why not? Because we would lose more games this year?

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 11:09 PM

I'll give you one two - Nick Evans from the Mets and Joe Koshanksy in the Rockies system...If you think we can get Koshansky for Walker and money your smoking something good.

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 11:10 PM

Well since we don't have that in our system unless you mean Reimold, Rowell or maybe Snyder then give me an example from some one else's system.

Jeff Larish:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Jeff-Larish.shtml

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 11:10 PM

If you think we can get Koshansky for Walker and money your smoking something good.

He is an example of a Hoey type prospect in somebody else's system. Isn't that what you wanted? :rolleyes:

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 11:11 PM

Have you even looked at their GB stats?

I've seen them both pitch, I don't havt to look at their GB stats.

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 11:13 PM

He is an example of a Hoey type prospect in somebody else's system. Isn't that what you wanted? :rolleyes:
My point is you can't get that kind of solid return for Walker. This isn't fantasy baseball.

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 11:14 PM

My point is you can't get that kind of solid return for Walker. This isn't fantasy baseball.

Koshansky isn't any better than Shealy was and they didn't even get back players as good as Bradford or Walker.

And Shealy had some ML success before he was dealt as well.

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 11:20 PM

Jeff Larish:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Jeff-Larish.shtmlSo you are talking about some one who is the equivalent of Majewski at 23 in AA? I'd rather keep Walker. For the next 2 years he will help the club play better IMO. Larish is a toss up to even make the club in '10

Rex Thunder

07-30-2007, 11:21 PM

But outside Millar, who falls under that category that we SHOULD trade?

Don't say Roberts and Bedard either. Tell me what someone would really give us for Cabrera, Bradford or Walker that would make it worth us weakening those areas of the team?

Completely on board with you.

First off, Walker and Bradford, unless we receive a desperate offer from a contender this year- should be untouchable. How many years has our bullpen been awful? I had optimism going into this season, based on the moves we made in our bullpen. We were extremely competitive early on, and had our bullpen not fallen apart, who knows how this season couldve turned out. A lot of that was bullpen mismanagement though- a problem that has now been solved. Under no circumstances, should we take another step back on one of the good decisions (in my opinion)- made by the FO last off season by trading Walker or Bradford. We will need them.

Millar as well I think brings more to the table for this team than any mid-level prospect could. I want him around next year. I'd have no problem letting Payton, Huff, Gibbons, and of course Trashcel go- but as has been stated- what are we really going to get for them?

The only guys people seem to have interest in- enough for us to get some top prospects in retunrs- are the same guy that most people on here would blast the FO for trading away. Bedard, Roberts, Markakis...

It's tough to be patient after years and years of losing- but that's what's needed by the FO right now- and I think they have it right on this one.

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 11:22 PM

So you are talking about some one who is the equivalent of Majewski at 23 in AA? I'd rather keep Walker. For the next 2 years he will help the club play better IMO. Larish is a toss up to even make the club in '10

Comparing Larish to Val is a complete joke...High walk guy with very good power...Also is a good athlete.

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:23 PM

You guys just want someone to be traded for the sake of being traded. Why mess with a good thing?

Sports Guy

07-30-2007, 11:24 PM

You guys just want someone to be traded for the sake of being traded. Why mess with a good thing?

Do we have a good thing?

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 11:25 PM

Koshansky isn't any better than Shealy was and they didn't even get back players as good as Bradford or Walker.

And Shealy had some ML success before he was dealt as well.I sure wouldn't want to trade Walker for Shealy today; maybe when he was 25.

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 11:26 PM

You guys just want someone to be traded for the sake of being traded. Why mess with a good thing?

Trax and Payton do not fit on this team anymore. Therefore they should be gone.

Knott and Olson should have permanent spots on the roster.

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:26 PM

Do we have a good thing?

Have you been watching the same team that I have. These guys believe in Trembley and playing with good chemistry. Why trade? When their isnt anything to trade for?

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:28 PM

Trax and Payton do not fit on this team anymore. Therefore they should be gone.

Knott and Olson should have permanent spots on the roster.I dont get the love affair with this guy. Unless he has an August and September like Markakis did last season, then theirs nothing great about this guy.

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 11:29 PM

I dont get the love affair with this guy. Unless he has an August and September like Markakis did last season, then theirs nothing great about this guy.

Would you agree that J.R. House should be here?

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 11:30 PM

I dont get the love affair with this guy. Unless he has an August and September like Markakis did last season, then theirs nothing great about this guy.

I am confident that, given starting time, he would produce at least to the level of Payton. With more power.

Hi career MiL numbers suggest that. It is better to take a chance on him than Payton. we strike gold with Knott we might have the DH of the future with Reimold in the OF.

He is worth giving a chance to now. Payton, not so much.

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:33 PM

Would you agree that J.R. House should be here?

No what has he done to prove he should be up here. Its a different playing field than AAA. Can he handle it?

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:35 PM

I am confident that, given starting time, he would produce at least to the level of Payton. With more power.

Hi career MiL numbers suggest that. It is better to take a chance on him than Payton. we strike gold with Knott we might have the DH of the future with Reimold in the OF.

He is worth giving a chance to now. Payton, not so much.

Payton has been clutch for this team and actually plays hard. He plays a better LF than Gibbons and I like his speed.

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 11:36 PM

Payton has been clutch for this team and actually plays hard. He plays a better LF than Gibbons and I like his speed.

You're right. He has been good.

But if you think he fits in on this team beyond this year than you are wrong.

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:40 PM

You're right. He has been good.

But if you think he fits in on this team beyond this year than you are wrong.

Beyond this year? No.but for now lets go with what we have. Just like with Trembs. Let him manage out the season and then evaluate what we have in the offseason. When their are better options to trade for and sign.

RVAbird

07-30-2007, 11:40 PM

No what has he done to prove he should be up here. Its a different playing field than AAA. Can he handle it?

He hasn't done anything to prove he should be up here because he hasn't been given a chance, and he hasn't been given a chance because he hasn't done anything to prove he should be up here.

This line of thinking is so absurdly backwards, and it seems to be exactly that of the FO.

The point of ditching guys like Trachsel and Payton even if we get little to nothing in return is that it gives us an opportunity to try our unproven players who could potentially help us now and down the road. If we don't, we will never know.

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 11:42 PM

Beyond this year? No.but for now lets go with what we have. Just like with Trembs. Let him manage out the season and then evaluate what we have in the offseason. When their are better options to trade for and sign.

But if we sign more FAs we lose more draft picks. We should re-sign Patterson and then trade for another bat for LF...

RVAbird

07-30-2007, 11:43 PM

Beyond this year? No.but for now lets go with what we have. Just like with Trembs. Let him manage out the season and then evaluate what we have in the offseason. When their are better options to trade for and sign.

We know what we have. We have a team that is not fit to contend. We have several sub-par aging vets with inflated salaries. If we can not package these guys for impact players, we can at least move them and try out other guys within the organization. Since you acknowledge that guys like Payton are not part of our future, and I surely hope you acknowledge that we are not in contention this year, what is the harm in trying out the unknowns?

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 11:44 PM

You're right. He has been good.

But if you think he fits in on this team beyond this year than you are wrong.I would like to see Knott get some regular playing time if only to shut the Knott mancrushers up. I can't believe House could be worse at DH than Huff and Gibbons but the club has to keep playing them in hopes they turn things around to have enough value to trade them in the winter, even if they have to eat salary. They have to find a way to be rid of at least one of them. Payton can be the CF next year if CPat goes the FA route. Unless you think we should go after Jones/Hunter/Rowand.

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:45 PM

Cmon guys..we just won two series against Oakland..IN OAKLAND!! and beat the Yanks AGAIN at home. Im drinking the OJ I know, but im excited. This team is impressing me every night. Even when they lose. They play their asses off to win. Tomorrow night will be must see tv folks.Bedard vs Beckett How long has it been since we ev had a pitcher that you put down everything your doing to watch Bedard pitch? Bedard makes me do that.

Birds08

07-30-2007, 11:46 PM

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:47 PM

We know what we have. We have a team that is not fit to contend. We have several sub-par aging vets with inflated salaries. If we can not package these guys for impact players, we can at least move them and try out other guys within the organization. Since you acknowledge that guys like Payton are not part of our future, and I surely hope you acknowledge that we are not in contention this year, what is the harm in trying out the unknowns?

Ok I'll wait and see them when they get called up in September, but I rather watch the vets and see what they can do. If they reach 500 in the next couple weeks, that will be huge.

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:48 PM

Oakland isn't a good team. If you think we have the means to compete next year with our current pieces, you are fooling yourself.

But how often do we beat Oakland in Oakland. We dont control the scheduling. Its still inspiring ball.

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:50 PM

The point is, Is that you guys just want to see someone traded for the sake of it. But what do you expect in return?

RVAbird

07-30-2007, 11:51 PM

Payton has been clutch for this team and actually plays hard. He plays a better LF than Gibbons and I like his speed.

Despite his CF (clutch factor) of 9.8, his HPI (Hard-play index) of 1.029, his Veterinosity Level of 81.4, average speed and average defense, his OPS is .699. Call me crazy, but this suggests to me that he is not a very good LF option.

I don't mean to pile on here, but it should be painfully obvious that shipping these types of guys out is a good idea.

Shopay

07-30-2007, 11:52 PM

Completely on board with you.

First off, Walker and Bradford, unless we receive a desperate offer from a contender this year- should be untouchable. How many years has our bullpen been awful? I had optimism going into this season, based on the moves we made in our bullpen. We were extremely competitive early on, and had our bullpen not fallen apart, who knows how this season couldve turned out. A lot of that was bullpen mismanagement though- a problem that has now been solved. Under no circumstances, should we take another step back on one of the good decisions (in my opinion)- made by the FO last off season by trading Walker or Bradford. We will need them.

Millar as well I think brings more to the table for this team than any mid-level prospect could. I want him around next year. I'd have no problem letting Payton, Huff, Gibbons, and of course Trashcel go- but as has been stated- what are we really going to get for them?

The only guys people seem to have interest in- enough for us to get some top prospects in retunrs- are the same guy that most people on here would blast the FO for trading away. Bedard, Roberts, Markakis...

It's tough to be patient after years and years of losing- but that's what's needed by the FO right now- and I think they have it right on this one.

Nice post Rex. Reasonable minds can defer on the trade issue. Notwithstanding what some may believe on this board, MacPhail knows what he is doing. After all, he has been around high-level baseball people for most of his life.

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 11:52 PM

I would like to see Knott get some regular playing time if only to shut the Knott mancrushers up. I can't believe House could be worse at DH than Huff and Gibbons but the club has to keep playing them in hopes they turn things around to have enough value to trade them in the winter, even if they have to eat salary. They have to find a way to be rid of at least one of them. Payton can be the CF next year if CPat goes the FA route. Unless you think we should go after Jones/Hunter/Rowand.

I don't think I'd be able to watch Oriole games (if I could anyway) if Payton was the CFer. His defense in LF isn't anything to write home about and he just doesn't have good range in center. Patterson saves games with his glove...

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:53 PM

Despite his CF (clutch factor) of 9.8, his HPI (Hard-play index) of 1.029, his Veterinosity Level of 81.4, average speed and average defense, his OPS is .699. Call me crazy, but this suggests to me that he is not a very good LF option.

I don't mean to pile on here, but it should be painfully obvious that shipping these types of guys out is a good idea.

Reports and my guy say Payton will get you scraps. I dont want scraps right now. I want guys who play hard and Major League ready. Payton is an Oriole in my book. Maybe im old fashioned.

SilentJames

07-30-2007, 11:54 PM

Reports and my guy say Payton will get you scraps. I dont want scraps right now. I want guys who play ahrd and Major League ready. Payton is an Oriole in my book. Maybe im old fashioned.

Yeah, but scraps won't be playing for Payton. Knott will get a legit shot.

And numbers suggest that he should at least be as good as Payton. Most likely better.

El Gordo

07-30-2007, 11:56 PM

I don't think I'd be able to watch Oriole games (if I could anyway) if Payton was the CFer. His defense in LF isn't anything to write home about and he just doesn't have good range in center. Patterson saves games with his glove...I don't want to see him there either. But CPat won't necessarily sign an extention just becuase you want him to. If he walks whats's your alternative?

RVAbird

07-30-2007, 11:57 PM

Reports and my guy say Payton will get you scraps. I dont want scraps right now. I want guys who play hard and Major League ready. Payton is an Oriole in my book. Maybe im old fashioned.

Not sure who you consider scraps. If it's a guy like Kroeger or Moore from the cubs, those scraps would likely be able to give you at least the production Payton is, and it's quite likely that a guy like Knott could too. I like Payton, but if trading him allows us the slightest possibility of finding pieces to make this team younger and better, then I don't get why we shouldn't do it. I don't like watching proven major leaguers play fourth place baseball year after year. I guess I'm a youngblood.

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:58 PM

Yeah, but scraps won't be playing for Payton. Knott will get a legit shot.

And numbers suggest that he should at least be as good as Payton. Most likely better.

No one wants Jay Payton, you have to have another team willing to trade for him. And all I hear are crickets.

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 11:58 PM

I don't want to see him there either. But CPat won't necessarily sign an extention just becuase you want him to. If he walks whats's your alternative?

Move Markakis to CF and put Huff in RF. I'd want Markakis in CF before I'd ever want to see Payton there. Either that or trade for a CFer. Milledge I would think would still be available.

JTrea81

07-30-2007, 11:59 PM

No one wants Jay Payton, you have to have another team willing to trade for him. And all I hear are crickets.

So the Mets interest really isn't there? Because it's been reported they are interested in him...

Peace21

07-30-2007, 11:59 PM

Not sure who you consider scraps. If it's a guy like Kroeger or Moore from the cubs, those scraps would likely be able to give you at least the production Payton is, and it's quite likely that a guy like Knott could too. I like Payton, but if trading him allows us the slightest possibility of finding pieces to make this team younger and better, then I don't get why we shouldn't do it. I don't like watching proven major leaguers play fourth place baseball year after year. I guess I'm a youngblood.

This Cubs thing is based on?

RVAbird

07-30-2007, 11:59 PM

No one wants Jay Payton, you have to have another team willing to trade for him. And all I hear are crickets.

Did your guy say that the reports of talks with the Cubs and Mets about Payton were untrue? Bigbird just mentioned that Payton could be traded tomorrow.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:00 AM

This Cubs thing is based on?

Pure 100 percent speculation, you're right there, but my point still stands that it would be addition through subtraction.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:00 AM

So the Mets interest really isn't there? Because it's been reported they are interested in him...
Man those Mets really seem like they are desperate for Jay Payton. Same club who laughed at our FO when they suggested Trax.

LAOSfan

07-31-2007, 12:01 AM

The only thing that troubles me about Trachsel is that we get a double whammy, 1.) We can't get rid of him and 2.) We will continue to keep him in the rotation. Hopefully he'll pass through waivers and we'll trade him next month.

Ding, ding, ding. That is exactly what scares me. If they keep him in the rotation, I will be very disappointed in MacFlanaquette. It will just be a different day, same old (I mean old) crap.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:02 AM

Did your guy say that the reports of talks with the Cubs and Mets about Payton were untrue? Bigbird just mentioned that Payton could be traded tomorrow.

I respect BB and his source and hope hes got something. But im hearing nothing from my guy. And he says its busy around the league. Nothing Orioles related. So Im leaning toward Jeff Z

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:03 AM

Pure 100 percent speculation, you're right there, but my point still stands that it would be addition through subtraction.

Hasnt Payton played better here than any teams hes played for in the past?

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:05 AM

I respect BB and his cource and hope hes got something. But im hearing nothing from my guy. And he says its busy around the league. Nothing Orioles related. So Im leaning toward Jeff Z

Fair enough, if it's the case that there are absolutely no takers then oh well. But our organization is going to have to be aggressive about this. We're sellers, so we have to sell these pieces. No one has to be desperate for Jay Payton for us to convince them to take him off our hands as a fourth outfielder who would be a bonus for a contending club. If there is the slightest possibility that we could get a bag of balls for Payton and his salary or a decent mid level prospect or two for Payton and a chunk of his salary, it would benefit the team without a doubt IMO.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:06 AM

Fair enough, if it's the case that there are absolutely no takers then oh well. But our organization is going to have to be aggressive about this. We're sellers, so we have to sell these pieces. No one has to be desperate for Jay Payton for us to convince them to take him off our hands as a fourth outfielder who would be a bonus for a contending club. If there is the slightest possibility that we could get a bag of balls for Payton and his salary or a decent mid level prospect or two for Payton and a chunk of his salary, it would benefit the team without a doubt IMO.

I just think you can get better chips and prospects in the offseason than now.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:07 AM

Hasnt Payton played better here than any teams hes played for in the past?

No. His OPS is 64 points lower than his career average. His numbers indicate that he has been much more miserable than I even thought. He is a contact hitter so we don't tend to notice his short comings because he will always hit for a decent average. But when he doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power, he is far below average.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:08 AM

Move Markakis to CF and put Huff in RF. I'd want Markakis in CF before I'd ever want to see Payton there. Either that or trade for a CFer. Milledge I would think would still be available.Huff in RF is insane, To begin with your OPS at that position would drop by .150 next year and Huff shouldn't be seen near the OF with a glove on his hand. And why screw up Nick by making him play out of position when he is a superb RF. His arm would be wasted there and I doubt that he would be that much of an upgrade over Payton defensively. Sure if you want Milledge all you have to do is trade Bedard.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:09 AM

No. His OPS is 64 points lower than his career average. His numbers indicate that he has been much more miserable than I even thought. He is a contact hitter so we don't tend to notice his short comings because he will always hit for a decent average. But when he doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power, he is far below average.
Whats his avg in the last month though?

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:11 AM

Whats his avg in the last month though?

First of all, I don't even see what the point of that is at all. But secondly, his average for July is 260. 10 points lower than it has been for the season, and 23 points lower than his career average. Even if it were higher, the reasons I listed before show why his average is deceiving, and even that is not up to par right now.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:13 AM

I'm sorry Peace, I don't mean to seem like I'm attacking you, I just really want to stress the addition by subtraction idea.

PoorMike

07-31-2007, 12:17 AM

Trax and Payton do not fit on this team anymore. Therefore they should be gone.

Knott and Olson should have permanent spots on the roster.

I'm with Peace21 on this one.

Payton is our left fielder. He only looks out of place because we aren't getting any offense from DH or SS (power-wise). I would not give him away; not to clear his contract and not to make a roster spot. We do use him. Paying 75% of his salary and getting another Adam Stern would do us no good. Getting a youger, raw guy with some skill (defense, speed, OPS, velocity) would be worth it.

What many people here aren't acknowledging is that Payton is NOT blocking KNOTT. If the O's wanted him to play, they'd option Fahey and DH Knott every night while sitting Huff. Then they could put Knott in left whenever CP or JP were resting.

Trax is a different story.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:19 AM

I'm sorry Peace, I don't mean to seem like I'm attacking you, I just really want to stress the addition by subtraction idea.

Yea why Subtract when when their is nothing to add?

JTrea81

07-31-2007, 12:20 AM

As far as shopping young pitching goes, Billy Beane shows how it should be done once again.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2955237&campaign=rss

Somehow the A's have been just fine until this year and they've traded away their Bedards and Cabreras...

Why we aren't shopping Bedard to the Dodgers is beyond me...

I'd rather have Kershaw come up in 09 and have him under control for the next 6 years at minimum salary than to have Bedard for 15+ million a season for the next 4-6 years...

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:22 AM

Yea why Subtract when when their is nothing to add?

Subtract 4.5 million per year for replacement level production, add an unknown minimum wage young player who could possibly end up giving you much more.

In this case, the subtraction IS the addtion. That's the point of the whole thing.

oriofan8

07-31-2007, 12:24 AM

Yea why Subtract when when their is nothing to add?

Correct !!

Jay Payton is no super star...but, I see him as solid. Better than Gibbons. Better than Huff. Better than Millar.

If we had better players in other positions, than Payton would look like more of an asset to this team.

Solid ball player with a TON of hustle.

Good run of posts Peace...I agree, and sent you rep points!

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:25 AM

As far as shopping young pitching goes, Billy Beane shows how it should be done once again.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2955237&campaign=rss

Somehow the A's have been just fine until this year and they've traded away their Bedards and Cabreras...

Why we aren't shopping Bedard to the Dodgers is beyond me...

Yeah Greg65 mentioned that in another thread. Any 3 of those prospects mentioned would be an insane haul for Blanton. That's what happens when you trade good pitchers at their peak.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:27 AM

Subtract 4.5 million per year for replacement level production, add an unknown minimum wage young player who could possibly end up giving you much more.

In this case, the subtraction IS the addtion. That's the point of the whole thing.
I guess my whole thing is, when have the Orioles made a decent trade for prospects? And what makes you think they would get the guys you want in return? Everyone is waiting to see what this teams going to do. GM's, Agents, Owners and more. And on the night before the deadline all I hear is nothing. So unless they make a decent trade and improve this team like you say, than Im going to be a loyal fan and root for what we have for now.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:28 AM

Correct !!

Jay Payton is no super star...but, I see him as solid. Better than Gibbons. Better than Huff. Better than Millar.

If we had better players in other positions, than Payton would look like more of an asset to this team.

Solid ball player with a TON of hustle.

Good run of posts Peace...I agree, and sent you rep points!

Well, I guess I'll give up because arguing stats vs. hustle is like arguing evolution vs. intelligent design, but I wish people would take a little time to check out what kind of production guys like Payton are really giving us. I like his hustle, really, but having him as a starter with the numbers he's putting up this year hurts the team.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:30 AM

I guess my whole thing is, when have the Orioles made a decent trade for prospects? And what makes you think they would get the guys you want in return? Everyone is waiting to see what this teams going to do. GM's, Agents, Owners and more. And on the night before the deadline all I hear is nothing. So unless they make a decent trade and improve this team like you say, than Im going to be a loyal fan and root for what we have for now.

Just one more time, my point is that even if they don't get the guys I'm talking about in return, it's still a good trade. That is the point of addition by subtraction. We free up money that can go to things like signing Weiters. We get rid of a known sub-par quantity and replace him with an unkown quantity (I'm talking about KNOTT, not who we would get back in the trade). I can't think of a single scenario in which trading Jay Payton hurts the team.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:33 AM

Correct !!

Jay Payton is no super star...but, I see him as solid. Better than Gibbons. Better than Huff. Better than Millar.

If we had better players in other positions, than Payton would look like more of an asset to this team.

Solid ball player with a TON of hustle.

Good run of posts Peace...I agree, and sent you rep points!

Look im partly to blame for this I know. I come on here and report rumors from my source and you all (like any good O's fan will do) run with it and get excited. And it gets to this pont where nothing is being said in the FO, but people here still pretend that Payton being traded, but it isnt realistic. And barring any last minute changes, its not happening. And I guess im optimistic after this month of solid baseball from this club. So I want Payton to stay. He may not have great numbers, but he is a great clubhouse guy and wants to win for the Baltimore Orioles. He wants to be here. Thats fine in my book.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:34 AM

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:35 AM

Just one more time, my point is that even if they don't get the guys I'm talking about in return, it's still a good trade. That is the point of addition by subtraction. We free up money that can go to things like signing Weiters. We get rid of a known sub-par quantity and replace him with an unkown quantity (I'm talking about KNOTT, not who we would get back in the trade). I can't think of a single scenario in which trading Jay Payton hurts the team.

Knott isnt playing for a reason.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:37 AM

Knott isnt playing for a reason.

Is that reason posting a significantly higher OPS than Jay Payton this year at the major league level?

And if someone wants to call sample size on that, they can help prove my point. He is an unknown quantity.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:39 AM

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:41 AM

Im just saying, the guy is riding the pine for a reason.

Is it possible the reason could be that they don't want to take ABs away from a guy with the veterinosity of Jay Payton?

JTrea81

07-31-2007, 12:42 AM

Im just saying, the guy is riding the pine for a reason.

I'm guessing he's a bad apple. Clubhouse cancer. And we know how the O's hate those cancers...

square634

07-31-2007, 12:44 AM

Im just saying, the guy is riding the pine for a reason.

You mean defense or another, more nefarious reason? ;)

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:44 AM

PoorMike

07-31-2007, 12:44 AM

Is that reason posting a significantly higher OPS than Jay Payton this year at the major league level?

And if someone wants to call sample size on that, they can help prove my point. He is an unknown quantity.

Bynum's is higher than Knotts.

Again, Payton is NOT blocking Knott. If anything, Huff should be the one to sit with Fahey going down.

The O's just aren't that excited about Knott right now. Payton isn't keeping him from playing.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:44 AM

Is it possible the reason could be that they don't want to take ABs away from a guy with the veterinosity of Jay Payton?

Or maybe he is just taking up a roster spot until Mora gets back, and then its back to Norfolk to do what he does best. And thats being a good AAA player. Maybe AAAA. I know its two different positions but Id agree with you on this case if we were talking about Olsen. He is ready.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:46 AM

Bynum's is higher than Knotts.

Again, Payton is NOT blocking Knott. If anything, Huff should be the one to sit with Fahey going down.

The O's just aren't that excited about Knott right now. Payton isn't keeping him from playing.

That's fine then, if somehow Bynum continues with a high OPS then allow him to play. My point is, field the team with the highest production. Jay's is below average no matter how you look at it, and he is quite overpaid. Replacing him with someone cheaper who could potentially do better is a good thing. Even player x does not do better than Payton, what have we lost?

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:47 AM

I can . KNott prooves he can't hit ML pitching any better than he can play LF and CPat goes the FA route. Then we are left with Gibbons in LF and Fio or Bynum in CF.:eek:

If Payton is our starting CF option for 2008, then this conversation is irrelevant and we are in big trouble.

square634

07-31-2007, 12:47 AM

Or maybe he is just taking up a roster spot until Mora gets back, and then its back to Norfolk to do what he does best. And thats being a good AAA player. Maybe AAAA. I know its two different positions but Id agree with you on this case if we were talking about Olsen. He is ready.

So the reason that Knott is not getting a lot of at-bats is that the Orioles aren't giving him a lot of playing time, so therefore he must be a AAAA player?.... sounds like standard O's logic to me.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:48 AM

Or maybe he is just taking up a roster spot until Mora gets back, and then its back to Norfolk to do what he does best. And thats being a good AAA player. Maybe AAAA. I know its two different positions but Id agree with you on this case if we were talking about Olsen. He is ready.

Can I ask why you think that being a good AAA player is what he does best?

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:48 AM

Bynum's is higher than Knotts.

Again, Payton is NOT blocking Knott. If anything, Huff should be the one to sit with Fahey going down.

The O's just aren't that excited about Knott right now. Payton isn't keeping him from playing.
If the O's aren't excited about Knott, they should spend more time looking at his MiL stats instead of watching him play.;)

square634

07-31-2007, 12:49 AM

Can I ask why you think that being a good AAA player is what he does best?

Don't you see? It's standard Orioles cyclical logic: being a good AAA player is what he does best because he doesn't get a lot of at-bats at the ML level because being a good AAA player is what he does best. ;) :D

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:50 AM

If the O's aren't excited about Knott, they should spend more time looking at his MiL stats instead of watching him play.;)

They haven't really gotten a chance to watch him play and I don't see how his .797 OPS at the major league level this year is reason to sour on him.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:50 AM

So the reason that Knott is not getting a lot of at-bats is that the Orioles aren't giving him a lot of playing time, so therefore he must be a AAAA player?.... sounds like standard O's logic to me.
What if you trade Knott?

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:51 AM

Can I ask why you think that being a good AAA player is what he does best?

Thats all I can go by for now.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:51 AM

Don't you see? It's standard Orioles cyclical logic: being a good AAA player is what he does best because he doesn't get a lot of at-bats at the ML level because being a good AAA player is what he does best. ;) :D

This is exactly what I'm talking about...the Orioles are creating their own problems and then pointing at the problems as reasons for doing what they did in the first place to create their own problems. :eek:

square634

07-31-2007, 12:51 AM

What if you trade Knott?

I wouldn't really have a problem with that considering there are other players like him who have never been given a chance and we do have House. Then again that is contingent on the Orioles actually doing something intelligent, which is rare.

Thats all I can go by for now.

Until someone gives him a chance, that's all anyone can go by. Then again, that doesn't make the original assumption true because no one has given him a chance.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:54 AM

I wouldn't really have a problem with that considering there are other players like him who have never been given a chance and we do have House. Then again that is contingent on the Orioles actually doing something intelligent, which is rare.
Hence my point, why do you guys think it will change now. This organization feels it has a winner on its hands.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 12:54 AM

Thats all I can go by for now.

:confused: :confused: :confused:

I feel like my brain is melting. In any case, if we took all intangibles and biases out of the equation and I told you that the Orioles could either put out a player who would give you sub par production in left field for 4.5 Million per year or a sub par production in left field for 350,000 thousand per year, and that the one making less than 1/10th of the other player was also several years younger with more upside, which would you choose?

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:55 AM

I wouldn't really have a problem with that considering there are other players like him who have never been given a chance and we do have House. Then again that is contingent on the Orioles actually doing something intelligent, which is rare.

Until someone gives him a chance, that's all anyone can go by. Then again, that doesn't make the original assumption true because no one has given him a chance.

Heres hoping he plays in Boston

Lucky Jim

07-31-2007, 12:55 AM

Why we aren't shopping Bedard to the Dodgers is beyond me...

Blanton and Bedard are wholly different properties.

From Buster Olney:

The Dodgers are believed to have initiated the discussions, and the two teams talked about a package of three frontline prospects for Blanton. They failed in their initial attempt to mix and match possible combinations, but there were indications talks could still be revived before the deadline. Blanton makes just $380,000 this year, and will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter. Teams rarely trade young and cheap and established starting pitchers in the current market, which explains why Oakland has set a high price for Blanton.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2955237&campaign=rss

This is a strange trade. The Dodgers get a guy who can stopgap their MASH unit of a starting staff. The A's get a huge haul of talent. And apparently, it's all because Blanton is making the minimum and is arb-eligible for the first time this off-season.

One of the reasons the A's were successful is that Beane had a different market - in fact, his success is likely one of the reasons why we're facing a different market now. Beane exploited the market's overvaluation of "established" pitchers and now the market has - perhaps - over-corrected...prospects are being held close-to-vest.

Simply put, Bedard is a wild-card who costs a good deal more than Blanton and will demand a huge haul of prospects.

Blanton will eat up innings and not cost TOO much (even w/ arbitration) relative to Bedard (who already costs $3.4 million and will certainly get a substantial pay raise after this season.)

I don't disagree, of course. I feel we SHOULD be shopping Bedard. And the rumors about the offseason low-ball are a bit scary. I've got to believe if we're keeping him, though, that we confident we can re-sign him.

When I say "I've got to believe" I mean "in order to preserve my sanity."

square634

07-31-2007, 12:58 AM

If the O's aren't excited about Knott, they should spend more time looking at his MiL stats instead of watching him play.

See, if the Orioles had any track record with roster decisions, I would be inclined to agree with you. But apparently, the front office was excited about guys like Trachsel and Payton and weren't excited about guys like Jack Cust, so they really can't be trusted.

For example, when the Ravens make a roster move, I don't really question it even if it seems weird because Ozzie Newsome has shown he almost always knows what he is doing. If the Ravens drafted someone and all the analysts said it was a reach, or Mel Kiper spouted off about how terrible a pick it was, I would be inclined to ignore them. However, the O's do not have the type of credibility where they should not be doubted or where their bizarre moves should be rationalized.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 12:59 AM

:confused: :confused: :confused:

I feel like my brain is melting. In any case, if we took all intangibles and biases out of the equation and I told you that the Orioles could either put out a player who would give you sub par production in left field for 4.5 Million per year or a sub par production in left field for 350,000 thousand per year, and that the one making less than 1/10th of the other player was also several years younger with more upside, which would you choose?

Id Trade Payton. But my man no one is interested. I see your point with Payton and have seen it. Its just hard to do the tango alone. It takes two.

RVAbird

07-31-2007, 01:02 AM

Id Trade Payton. But my man no one is interested. I see your point with Payton and have seen it. Its just hard to do the tango alone. It takes two.

Again, if that is literally the case, then the point is moot. But if we can "trade him for scraps," then I say it's a win-win. I think portions of my brain have officially exploded now and I'm declaring a position of respectfully disagree.:)

PS I very much appreciate the info you and other insiders give to the hangout, and am in no way attempting to give you a hard time for that. Thanks and please continue to contribute.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 01:03 AM

They haven't really gotten a chance to watch him play and I don't see how his .797 OPS at the major league level this year is reason to sour on him.The O's aren't just the guys you see at OPACY, they also have scouts and coaches at the MiL level, who watch these wunderkinds every day and they talk to each other about their level of skill. And Trembley has been a MiL manager for 20 years, I bet he's seen Knott play before this year.

Peace21

07-31-2007, 01:05 AM

Again, if that is literally the case, then the point is moot. But if we can "trade him for scraps," then I say it's a win-win. I think portions of my brain have officially exploded now and I'm declaring a position of respectfully disagree.:)

PS I very much appreciate the info you and other insiders give to the hangout, and am in no way attempting to give you a hard time for that. Thanks and please continue to contribute.
Its fun to debate man. I respect your thoughts and love to see passionate O's fans. Espically about Youth in the organization. Im just happy to be talking O's baseball and intersted in O's baseball on the day Ravens training camp starts.

square634

07-31-2007, 01:07 AM

orioles119

07-31-2007, 01:12 AM

Again, as SG likes to point out, what have they done to deserve credibility?
My God... when did Sports Guy become the voice of reason?

square634

07-31-2007, 01:14 AM

My God... when did Sports Guy become the voice of reason?

SG is rather brusque, but I think he is right about the O's more often than not.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 01:22 AM

Again, as SG likes to point out, what have they done to deserve credibility? This is a tiresome and specious argument. You can point to mistakes like maybe Cust or Maine but think of the thousands of players they run through their sytem and get it right with. They were smart enough to see Nck's potential. Olson's ,Bedard's, BRob's, and so on and so on. By in large they are competent at evaluating talent. If they think Knott can't hit ML pitching then the odds are they are right, Jack Cust not withstanding. It's like saying a .250 hitter in the ML doesn't know how to hit because ther are guys hitting .300. Anybody who can hit 250 in the Bigs knows a lot more about hitting than just about everyone else.

square634

07-31-2007, 01:25 AM

By in large they are competent at evaluating talent.

This is true, but someone could be competent at knowing when to call up players just by looking at statistics and not watching them play (granted, I don't think this is a good strategy, and scouting is definitely an important aspect of this). Although the O's may be deemed 'competent,' I would challenge you to name 5 teams that have been worse at evaluating talent than the Orioles over the past 10 years. Just because they get it right sometimes doesn't mean we should settle for them being worse than everyone else. Similarly, we shouldn't settle for a team of .250 hitters if there are players with .300 averages. I guess my point is that even if the Orioles are better than any of we are at evaluating talent (i.e. a .250 hitter is much better than 99% of the planet in your analogy), they are still worse than most of the rest of the league, and that is unacceptable.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 01:25 AM

SG is rather brusque, but I think he is right about the O's more often than not.The next time you and SG go to Fantasyland, I recommend Tinkerbell's trolley ride to Never Never Land.:D

square634

07-31-2007, 01:32 AM

The next time you and SG go to Fantasyland, I recomment Tinkerbell's trolley ride to Never Never Land.

Hey, I don't think saying that Knott should be given a chance is Fantasyland, and I have certainly expressed my doubts about many of SG's trade proposals (I actually think I got into a heated argument with him about a Benson/Ensberg trade idea).

Fantasyland is saying that we should trade DCab, Liz, and Hoey for Teixeira :D ;)

JTrea81

07-31-2007, 01:33 AM

The next time you and SG go to Fantasyland, I recomment Tinkerbell's trolley ride to Never Never Land.:D

Jim Hunter, I didn't know you posted here...

Lucky Jim

07-31-2007, 01:38 AM

SG is rather brusque, but I think he is right about the O's more often than not.

Greatest. Euphemism. Ever.

mikezpen

07-31-2007, 01:39 AM

Good point about the Ravens ability to evaluate talent. I believe I heard last year they had more draft picks still playing somewhere in the NFL than any other other team.Surprise anybody?

Yes the Orioles have scouts, el Gordo, and they have experienced baseball men in the Front Office.And they also have 10 straight years of losing. These are the people who gave big contracts to a shrivveled Jay Gibbons, a declining Aubrey Huff, a 10 miilion dollar deal to a 4th outfielder in Jay Payton, have rostered enough weak-hitting middle infielders to field a rifle platoon, have assembled one of the weakest benches in the game for year after year, refuse to give guys in the upper minors a chance even when they are having big years even though they have one of the weakest scoring teams in the Majors, call Jim Hoey up for one or two days...

You're right. The Orioles we see screwing up on the field year in and year out aren't the only Orioles.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 01:45 AM

This is true, but someone could be competent at knowing when to call up players just by looking at statistics and not watching them play (granted, I don't think this is a good strategy, and scouting is definitely beneficial). Although the O's may be deemed 'competent,' I would challenge you to name 5 teams that have been worse at evaluating talent than the Orioles over the past 10 years. You miss the point. They may be the worst team in MLB at evaluating talent, though they are not, they still are much more competent on a daily basis then people who never played the game beyond little league and can only look at a bunch of numbers rather than actually watching a guy play, in order to make an evaluation. I can name all 30 teams in the ML. in the case of Knott. They all had an opportunity to look at his terrific MiL numbers and see him play for 5 years and no one took any interest in him. He may have been blocked in San Diego but they could have traded him. Why do you suppose they didn't ? So since it is a given at OH that Knott is a superstar in waiting, only O's had the vision to sign him.

square634

07-31-2007, 01:46 AM

Greatest. Euphemism. Ever.

Well I couldn't really find the right words :D Plus, I have to make sure to abide by the board's rules and regulations ;)

Lucky Jim

07-31-2007, 01:47 AM

NoVaO

07-31-2007, 01:49 AM

The O's aren't just the guys you see at OPACY, they also have scouts and coaches at the MiL level, who watch these wunderkinds every day and they talk to each other about their level of skill. And Trembley has been a MiL manager for 20 years, I bet he's seen Knott play before this year.

If they felt he wasn't good enough to play at the MLB level, they wouldn't have signed him. Nobody is making him out to be a star, as you seem to hint at in your posts. However, he could be a solid role player who provides a power-starved team that has a lot of left handed hitting players some power from the right hand side of the plate.

I personally think they have simply taken the pitching and defense mantra to an unnecessary level by keeping Fahey up here. Redundancy and uselessness at its best.

I also doubt Trembley has seen Knott play before this year because Knott never played in the IL, which is where Trembley has been residing.

I also agree that Payton isn't necessarily blocking Knott or even that we should just dump him, but squeezing a little value out of Payton who is actually a below average player, would be enough for me to send him off.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 01:50 AM

Jim Hunter, I didn't know you posted here...I've been to Fantasyland in the 60's with the help of certain pharmacueticals, but thank God I came back. Hunter is still there and I believe SG is as well, just on a different ride.:D

orioles119

07-31-2007, 01:53 AM

SG is rather brusque, but I think he is right about the O's more often than not.
He'll remind you every chance he gets and belittle your intelligence as well.

I guess I better put this... :p :D

square634

07-31-2007, 01:55 AM

You miss the point. They may be the worst team in MLB at evaluating talent, though they are not, they still are much more competent on a daily basis then people who never played the game beyond little league and can only look at a bunch of numbers rather than actually watching a guy play, in order to make an evaluation.

But they still don't deserve blind trust, either. Their past track record warrants skepticism about questionable moves, especially when "people who never played the game beyond little league and can only look at a bunch of numbers" have been right about Orioles moves more often than not (Payton/Trax disasters, Cust, Ponson for Adrian Gonzalez, the list goes on).

I can name all 30 teams in the ML. in the case of Knott. They all had an opportunity to look at his terrific MiL numbers and see him play for 5 years and no one took any interest in him. He may have been blocked in San Diego but they could have traded him. Why do you suppose they didn't ? So since it is a given at OH that Knott is a superstar in waiting, only O's had the vision to sign him.

No one says that Knott is a superstar (everyone keeps stressing this point, but some people don't seem to get it), but he is likely an improvement to our team. All the other teams either a) have better, more established alternatives or b) have the same flawed rationales as the Orioles. One of the problems with the Oroiles is exemplified by the fact that Knott would probably be a big improvement - if we had a decent front office, we probably wouldn't need him in the first place, but only a decent front office would give someone like him a chance. It's all a vicious cycle.

The problem, of course, is that sometimes it works. Jack Cust is an example. But there's an availability bias at work --> we remember those who worked out and forget those that didn't and fail to realize that Cust is a lone needle in an enormous haystack.

That's all well and good, but I would rather search for a proverbial needle in a haystack (who would likely improve our team even if he is never a great success) than waste our roster with players we already know won't help us.

Lucky Jim

07-31-2007, 02:03 AM

That's all well and good, but I would rather search for a proverbial needle in a haystack (who would likely improve our team even if he is never a great success) than waste our roster with players we already know won't help us.

No real disagreement here. I was really happy when we signed Knott, House, Dubois and even Sing.

I just mean that, from an armchair perspective, there can be a bit of a perspectival problem.

oriole_way

07-31-2007, 02:09 AM

There's not much I can add to this thread, so I'll post this:

If the Orioles are unable to move anybody, which looks like a distinct possibility, will they bite the bullet and outright release Traschel and/or Gibbons?

Releasing those two would create two roster spots on the team that could be used by the likes of Olson and House. Olson could then continue to get valuable ML experience and we can see what House may be able to do in at least a part time dh role. The Orioles probably won't contend next year, but these two moves could benefit the 2008 (and beyond) Orioles.

But of course, that would mean that the O's are paying salaries for two players no longer on the team, and in the case of Gibby, for several years.

Let's face it, Traschel is not part of the Orioles future and Gibby is not likely (I'm being kind) to recapture his 2005 form.

If the Orioles actually did this, I would be more optimistic about the Orioles future, because I would think that the FO is more concerned about winning, even at the expense of admitting past mistakes.

oriole_way

07-31-2007, 02:28 AM

Blanton and Bedard are wholly different properties.

From Buster Olney:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2955237&campaign=rss

This is a strange trade. The Dodgers get a guy who can stopgap their MASH unit of a starting staff. The A's get a huge haul of talent. And apparently, it's all because Blanton is making the minimum and is arb-eligible for the first time this off-season.

One of the reasons the A's were successful is that Beane had a different market - in fact, his success is likely one of the reasons why we're facing a different market now. Beane exploited the market's overvaluation of "established" pitchers and now the market has - perhaps - over-corrected...prospects are being held close-to-vest.

Simply put, Bedard is a wild-card who costs a good deal more than Blanton and will demand a huge haul of prospects.

Blanton will eat up innings and not cost TOO much (even w/ arbitration) relative to Bedard (who already costs $3.4 million and will certainly get a substantial pay raise after this season.)

I don't disagree, of course. I feel we SHOULD be shopping Bedard. And the rumors about the offseason low-ball are a bit scary. I've got to believe if we're keeping him, though, that we confident we can re-sign him.

When I say "I've got to believe" I mean "in order to preserve my sanity."

If Beane is actually able to pull this deal off, that's another feather in his cap. Of course, the A's aren't doing that well this year (they are actually 1 game worse than us at the moment), but they have had a pretty long run of success and this type of trade would help set them up in the near future.

Seriously, how many gms would be willing to trade a 26 year old pitcher who is having a pretty good year and has been durable and who isn't anywhere close to FA? This would be the type of sell high move that many here clamor about.

Lucky Jim

07-31-2007, 03:50 AM

If Beane is actually able to pull this deal off, that's another feather in his cap. Of course, the A's aren't doing that well this year (they are actually 1 game worse than us at the moment), but they have had a pretty long run of success and this type of trade would help set them up in the near future.

Seriously, how many gms would be willing to trade a 26 year old pitcher who is having a pretty good year and has been durable and who isn't anywhere close to FA? This would be the type of sell high move that many here clamor about.

This would be the type of sell high move that many here clamor about.

Except we don't have anyone like Blanton --> i.e., young, cheap, durable, proven, and heading into his first year of arbitration eligibility. (Even last year, his off-year, his FIP was 4.2 - which is respectable.)

We can clamor all we want, but it's no good if you don't have the parts needed to pull it off.

It's sort-of the equivalent of trading Markakis right now (109 ERA+ v. 109 OPS+). (Don't get me wrong, I know that Blanton is older, but my point is only...young, cheap, under control, w/ similar production -- as immediate relief for injury woes.) Would we be willing to do that (the OH I mean) even for three prospects? I doubt it.

66-70-83-??

07-31-2007, 08:20 AM

66-70-83-??

07-31-2007, 08:24 AM

Except we don't have anyone like Blanton --> i.e., young, cheap, durable, proven, and heading into his first year of arbitration eligibility. (Even last year, his off-year, his FIP was 4.2 - which is respectable.)

We can clamor all we want, but it's no good if you don't have the parts needed to pull it off.

It's sort-of the equivalent of trading Markakis right now (109 ERA+ v. 109 OPS+). (Don't get me wrong, I know that Blanton is older, but my point is only...young, cheap, under control, w/ similar production -- as immediate relief for injury woes.) Would we be willing to do that (the OH I mean) even for three prospects? I doubt it.

We have one better- Bedard.

If the decision is to blow it up, then he should be dealt.

He would bring back more than Tejada now.

If we are blowing it up, Bedard and Tejada would bring back quite a haul that could form the foundation for the next generation of winning Orioles baseball.

If the FO believes that Bedard will walk (via FA) then the time to trade him is now. Before something happens to Bedard. And if they are planning to trade him- something WILL happen (ie "ironman" Tejada breaking his wrist after O's decide to shop him). This franchise is snakebit.:eek:

rolliefingers

07-31-2007, 09:38 AM

Way late to this thread, but the last part of the Zrebeic article is pretty depressing.

//Asked whether the team's recent winning streak alters the front office's thinking on trading veteran regulars, MacPhail said: "I think it does have an impact.

"With a lot of good things happening, it probably makes you less likely to do something," he said. "You don't want to do anything to pop the balloon. It becomes harder to negatively impact the short term when the team is on the roll and playing with as much enthusiasm and energy as they are."

There is also some sentiment in the front office that it would be unfair to Dave Trembley to unload several of the veteran regulars, forcing the interim manager to rely on players who have no business being in the major leagues.//

As always...no vision, no concept of getting worse now to get better later.

As for the notion that we have no prospects worth moving veterans for, that's an absolute joke. House and Knott deserve extended trials. Not just one AB here and there - 3-5 games per week. We'll never know if they are or aren't part of the future if they never get to play.

PoorMike

07-31-2007, 10:12 AM

We have one better- Bedard.

If the decision is to blow it up, then he should be dealt.

He would bring back more than Tejada now.

If we are blowing it up, Bedard and Tejada would bring back quite a haul that could form the foundation for the next generation of winning Orioles baseball.

If the FO believes that Bedard will walk (via FA) then the time to trade him is now. Before something happens to Bedard. And if they are planning to trade him- something WILL happen (ie "ironman" Tejada breaking his wrist after O's decide to shop him). This franchise is snakebit.:eek:

As mentioned in another thread, I wonder why people are backing off Tejada. He's playing the extact same way he was before the injury. If you were interested then, why not be interested now?

Lucky Jim

07-31-2007, 11:32 AM

We have one better- Bedard.

You missed the point, it seems. Bedard isn't better because he costs many times more money, is older, and is heading into free agency much sooner.

He's better, yes, performance-wise. But not situationally, necessarily. They've got $40 million not playing right now in just four starting pitchers - and, while it might be feasible to try and unload Schmidt, it's going to be impossible w/ his contract.

On the other hand, Wolf's contract is up (he's at $8 mil this year and terrible), sort-of --> they can buy him out for $500K. MAYBE freeing this money up would be enough to turn the Dodger's heads toward Bedard.

But I'm not completely sure. Blanton, like I said, is situationally perfect for the Dodgers and that's why he's commanding such a large haul. Would I trade Bedard for the same haul? I'm not completely sure. Would we get offered more, on the rationale that Bedard is better? I'm not sure of that either -- probably, but perhaps not enough to sweeten the deal to the point where I'd pull the trigger.

rolliefingers

07-31-2007, 11:34 AM

Wolf's contract is up (he's at $8 mil this year and terrible)Off-topic, but Wolf had been very good this year until he got hurt.

Lucky Jim

07-31-2007, 11:53 AM

Season 18 102.2 110 55 10 39 94 9 6 0 98.6 1.45 .273 4.73

Looks like he had one good month, to me.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4087

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:22 PM

I hope they are. They are getting paid good salaries to do so.

But, the other teams talent evaluators (GM, coaches, scouts) are getting paid too.

And in comparison to them, the Orioles have been shown up over and over again.

Where have we finished in the standings over the last decade ?

Over the losing years, unlike Oak/TB/Milw/Min, etc.. we have had money to spend, but overall we haven't spent it wisely in the FA market.

Nor have we developed very many impact players through the system.
Across the board we have done a subpar job developing and acquiring talent.

You may be satisfied with the Orioles having better talent evaluators than the average fan. That is fine. I want them to have talent evaluators better than the average MLB team.OH Must stand stand for Oneger Hangout. I'm not saying I'm satisfied with the O's Progress. I'm not saying we aren't subpar in comparison with other teams, I'm say no matter how bad they may be at evaluating players, the fact that they are a ML team looking at thousands of players each year means they get it right most of the time. Lets say 85-90% of the time( I'm sure Drungo has an exact figure for their overall success rate at evaluating players; OSREP). So that means Knott might have a 10 -15 % chance of being any good, at best, in spite of their evaluation. Weigh that against the cost of DFAing Gibbons, $12mil. or Huff, $16mil.

Sports Guy

07-31-2007, 12:24 PM

OH Must stand stand for Oneger Hangout. I'm not saying I'm satisfied with the O's Progress. I'm not saying we aren't subpar in comparison with other teams, I'm say no matter how bad they may be at evaluating players, the fact that they are a ML team looking at thousands of players each year means they get it right most of the time. Lets say 85-90% of the time( I'm sure Drungo has an exact figure for their overall success rate at evaluating players; OSREP). So that means Knott might have a 10 -15 % chance of being any good, at best, in spite of their evaluation. Weigh that against the cost of DFAing Gibbons, $12mil. or Huff, $16mil.

Or against dumping Payton for nothing and saving some money...That is a great scenario for the Orioles.

Dr. FLK

07-31-2007, 12:25 PM

OH Must stand stand for Oneger Hangout. I'm not saying I'm satisfied with the O's Progress. I'm not saying we aren't subpar in comparison with other teams, I'm say no matter how bad they may be at evaluating players, the fact that they are a ML team looking at thousands of players each year means they get it right most of the time. Lets say 85-90% of the time( I'm sure Drungo has an exact figure for their overall success rate at evaluating players; OSREP). So that means Knott might have a 10 -15 % chance of being any good, at best, in spite of their evaluation. Weigh that against the cost of DFAing Gibbons, $12mil. or Huff, $16mil.

That doesn't mean that at all. They do look at THOUSANDS of players. And, look at the ones they decided on. Out of all the talent in the world, we ended up with a roster full of garbage. We have no LF, 1B, DH. We have no bench. Out of the THOUSANDS of players they looked at, wouldn't you think they could assemble a real baseball team if they were right 90% of the time?

Hank Scorpio

07-31-2007, 12:26 PM

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:28 PM

As mentioned in another thread, I wonder why people are backing off Tejada. He's playing the extact same way he was before the injury. If you were interested then, why not be interested now?Name the teams that need to trade for Tejada now because they are in contention, rather than in the winter? I can only think of three maybe's.

osfan83

07-31-2007, 12:29 PM

OH Must stand stand for Oneger Hangout. I'm not saying I'm satisfied with the O's Progress. I'm not saying we aren't subpar in comparison with other teams, I'm say no matter how bad they may be at evaluating players, the fact that they are a ML team looking at thousands of players each year means they get it right most of the time. Lets say 85-90% of the time( I'm sure Drungo has an exact figure for their overall success rate at evaluating players; OSREP). So that means Knott might have a 10 -15 % chance of being any good, at best, in spite of their evaluation. Weigh that against the cost of DFAing Gibbons, $12mil. or Huff, $16mil.

I think the O's drop the ball on doing the little things. Nobody thinks Knott or House can be starters. I'm sure they are right on that. But I think our FO over the years has been uninterested in finding incremental solutions to our problems. LF has been a problem for years, why not platoon two sub par major leaguers and play to their strengths, rather than sign an average major Leaguer to above market price?

PoorMike

07-31-2007, 12:33 PM

Name the teams that need to trade for Tejada now because they are in contention, rather than in the winter? I can only think of three maybe's.

Who are the 3? I can only think of the Angels.

Maybe I have misread this. Maybe teams that wanted him before, no longer need him because their hitters have gotten hot. That would be different.

However, if X number of teams wanted him before, still need him, but no longer want him because of the injury, that makes no sense to me. He looks like the exact same guy.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:35 PM

Or against dumping Payton for nothing and saving some money...That is a great scenario for the Orioles.For better or worse they have decided to opt for defense in support of their young SP. Payton is by far the best option defensively in LF this year. Since Gibbons isn't hitting and Knott is a question mark offensively, they don't want to give him away for nothing. I wouldn't either. I'd have to get something back. Maybe the Mets will comply.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:39 PM

That doesn't mean that at all. They do look at THOUSANDS of players. And, look at the ones they decided on. Out of all the talent in the world, we ended up with a roster full of garbage. We have no LF, 1B, DH. We have no bench. Out of the THOUSANDS of players they looked at, wouldn't you think they could assemble a real baseball team if they were right 90% of the time?
None of the players on our team is "garbage", they are at least human beings and the fact that they are among the 700 or so ML ballplayers makes them pretty good baseball players in comparison to all the talent in the world. The post referring to them as such, however, is garbage.

hoosiers

07-31-2007, 12:40 PM

No one says that Knott is a superstar (everyone keeps stressing this point, but some people don't seem to get it), but he is likely an improvement to our team. All the other teams either a) have better, more established alternatives or b) have the same flawed rationales as the Orioles. One of the problems with the Oroiles is exemplified by the fact that Knott would probably be a big improvement - if we had a decent front office, we probably wouldn't need him in the first place, but only a decent front office would give someone like him a chance. It's all a vicious cycle.

You really are not looking for a discussion if you truly believe the bolded part - that's a pretty locked mind speaking there. Jeremy Guthrie was a "flawed rationale" in your book?

Regarding the "Knott would probably be a big improvement" assertion, you might want to tread carefully there. I've seen this board clamor for so many career minor league upgrades in the past five years that it's pathetic - whether it's Michael Restovich or Josh Phelps or Jack Cust - who stunk for two years after we passed on him. I've no problem with opening a door for Knott or House to get 200 at-bats in the majors, but let's stop acting like these guys are the difference between winning and losing at the major league level. And let's not forget that the FO guys you blame for not playing Knott are the very ones who sought to acquire him.

square634

07-31-2007, 12:40 PM

None of the players on our team is "garbage", they are at least human beings and the fact that they are among the 700 or so ML ballplayers makes them pretty good baseball players in comparison to all the talent in the world. The post referring to them as such, however, is garbage.

You know what he meant... Of the 700 or so ML ballplayers a few of them are in the bottom 25.

Sports Guy

07-31-2007, 12:41 PM

For better or worse they have decided to opt for defense in support of their young SP. Payton is by far the best option defensively in LF this year. Since Gibbons isn't hitting and Knott is a question mark offensively, they don't want to give him away for nothing. I wouldn't either. I'd have to get something back. Maybe the Mets will comply.

Payton's defense isn't that special.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:45 PM

Why the fascination with Onegers? :D
I really dont know. I'm definitely wasting my time. However an Oneger, among other things is also a medievil catapult. It's so named because it's force resembles the kick of it's namesake. I know this because my brother is insane and has built an exact replica of one and competes every year in Deleware, a week after Holloween, to see who's machine can throw a pumkin farthest.:confused: :002_sdrool: :002_sconfused: :D

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 12:46 PM

Payton's defense isn't that special.
It is compared to Gibbon's Knott's and Huff's, IMO of course.:)

square634

07-31-2007, 12:47 PM

You really are not looking for a discussion if you truly believe the bolded part - that's a pretty locked mind speaking there. Jeremy Guthrie was a "flawed rationale" in your book?

Regarding the "Knott would probably be a big improvement" assertion, you might want to tread carefully there. I've seen this board clamor for so many career minor league upgrades in the past five years that it's pathetic - whether it's Michael Restovich or Josh Phelps or Jack Cust - who stunk for two years after we passed on him. I've no problem with opening a door for Knott or House to get 200 at-bats in the majors, but let's stop acting like these guys are the difference between winning and losing at the major league level. And let's not forget that the FO guys you blame for not playing Knott are the very ones who sought to acquire him.

On the contrary, I am looking for a discussion or I wouldn't be posting on an Orioles message board :rolleyes:

The difference between guys like Knott and Cust and Guthrie is that there was no empirical evidence that Guthrie would succeed like this. For the most part, he hadn't had success in the minor leagues, so why would most teams think that he would have success in the major leagues? The flawed rationale with Cust and Knott is that since they have never been given ample opportunity in the ML, there must be a reason, even though they have done well in the minors. Regardless of his minor league success, acquiring Guthrie was a smart move for two reasons. He had potential and was young enough to possibly improve, unlike guys like Trachsel. I applaud the O's for that move because that is the direction we should be headed, even if a player like that usually doesn't work out. I think Guthrie is one of those few cases like John Maine where for whatever reason (coaching, late bloomer, etc) a team gets lucky. I don't really blame the O's for evaluating Maine incorrectly, although it was a poor general strategy to trade young guys for a mediocre, aging veteran.

Do you actually think Knott/House are not likely improvements over Fahey, Luis Hernandez, and/or Paul Bako? If they are improvements, does that not make them the difference between some wins and losses? Why did the FO acquire these guys if they weren't planning to use them? To have a winning season with their new AAA affiliate maybe? That sounds like something the Orioles would try to do.

Sports Guy

07-31-2007, 12:48 PM

It is compared to Gibbon's Knott's and Huff's, IMO of course.:)

You have no idea what Knott can do out there...He has had very little time.

He is a big guy but moves well...He can probably be close to average out there which isn't that much worse than Payton.

Plus, he can take a walk, not swing at every first or second pitch and has a lot more power.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 01:10 PM

You have no idea what Knott can do out there...He has had very little time.

He is a big guy but moves well...He can probably be close to average out there which isn't that much worse than Payton.

Plus, he can take a walk, not swing at every first or second pitch and has a lot more power.
By that same reasoning neither do you, and inspite of your hubrous MHO is as meaningful/meaningless as yours.:D

Sports Guy

07-31-2007, 01:11 PM

By that same reasoning neither do you, and inspite of your hubrous MHO is as meaningful/meaningless as yours.:D

But we do know he has more power, upside, ability to walk and is much cheaper...Those things are obvious.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 01:15 PM

Do you actually think Knott/House are not likely improvements over Fahey, Luis Hernandez, and/or Paul Bako? If they are improvements, does that not make them the difference between some wins and losses? Why did the FO acquire these guys if they weren't planning to use them? To have a winning season with their new AAA affiliate maybe? That sounds like something the Orioles would try to do.This is very poor reasoning . Knott and House aren't being blocked by Hernandez and Fahey. Neither are utility IF's. Huff and Gibbons and Payton are the ones blocking Knott and House. You could argue that Bako is but I'm willing to bet that after a couple of games watching House catch you be singing a different tune. Just a hunch.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 01:19 PM

But we do know he has more power, upside, ability to walk and is much cheaper...Those things are obvious.

My point was they are keeping Payton over Knott because of his superior defense and because Knott is an unknown commodity as far as his offense, while you know what you are getting from Payton. They really may know something about Knotts swing that you don't. It's hard to understand how that is possible I know, but it could be?;)

square634

07-31-2007, 02:09 PM

This is very poor reasoning . Knott and House aren't being blocked by Hernandez and Fahey. Neither are utility IF's. Huff and Gibbons and Payton are the ones blocking Knott and House. You could argue that Bako is but I'm willing to bet that after a couple of games watching House catch you be singing a different tune. Just a hunch.

Well, we only need 2 utility infielders at most, so one of Fahey or Hernandez is blocking a roster spot. Secondly, I think Knott would be better than all three of Huff, Gibbons, and Payton anyway.

and because Knott is an unknown commodity as far as his offense, while you know what you are getting from Payton.

Yeah, we do know what we are getting from Payton, and it is bad! That's the whole point of my argument, in a nutshell.

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 02:39 PM

You know what he meant... Of the 700 or so ML ballplayers a few of them are in the bottom 25.He was talking about all the talent in the world, and unless he's man enough to tell any of the botton 25 ML ballplayer they are "garbage " to their face, he should keep that drivil to himself IMO..

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 02:43 PM

Well, we only need 2 utility infielders at most, so one of Fahey or Hernandez is blocking a roster spot. Secondly, I think Knott would be better than all three of Huff, Gibbons, and Payton anyway.

Yeah, we do know what we are getting from Payton, and it is bad! That's the whole point of my argument, in a nutshell.One of Fahey and Hernandez will be sent down when Mora returns and the other will go when Bynum comes back. So perhaps you can whine about Bynum and his .850 OPS blocking one your "boyz" when he comes back.

square634

07-31-2007, 03:30 PM

One of Fahey and Hernandez will be sent down when Mora returns and the other will go when Bynum comes back. So perhaps you can whine about Bynum and his .850 OPS blocking one your "boyz" when he comes back.

Just because they are going to be off the roster soon doesn't mean that they should be here in the first place over Knott. I suppose there is at least some rationale to what you are saying (if you actually believe Bynum will maintain an .850 OPS), but do you care to address the second part of my statement that we know what we are getting from Payton and it is insufficient?

El Gordo

07-31-2007, 04:03 PM

Just because they are going to be off the roster soon doesn't mean that they should be here in the first place over Knott. I suppose there is at least some rationale to what you are saying (if you actually believe Bynum will maintain an .850 OPS), but do you care to address the second part of my statement that we know what we are getting from Payton and it is insufficient?No I don't care to address it because you are tedious and obdurant and I have made my point sufficiently clear for any sentient being to grasp, if not concur with, IMHO.:)