View Full Version : Okay... who will pass Bonds?
orioles119
08-08-2007, 12:17 AM
Out of the list above, who has the greatest chance to pass Bonds, assuming he retires this offseason and doesn't add too many HRs the rest of this year.
Some career stats and ages:
Alex Rodriguez - 500 career HRs, just turned 32 on July 27th
Albert Pujols - 274 career HRs through tonight, turned 27 in January
Ken Griffey Jr. - 589 career HRs, turns 38 in November
Andruw Jones - 363 career HRs, turned 30 in April
Vladimir Guerrero - 356 career HRs, turned 31 in February
Other
The most obvious is Rodriguez, but Pujols is a possibility.
ixcuincle
08-08-2007, 12:20 AM
TBS and I think ESPN Sportscenter brought up an interesting fact. Alex is the youngest to reach 500 (at age 32) , at 32 I don't know how many HR's Bonds had but it was less than 500 ( I think it was 318 but I'm not sure.) So , A-Rod , barring injury , would be on pace to break the record first , then Pujols.
byrdz
08-08-2007, 12:22 AM
ARod will do it sooner in his career then Bonds did it in his.
orioles119
08-08-2007, 12:23 AM
TBS and I think ESPN Sportscenter brought up an interesting fact. Alex is the youngest to reach 500 (at age 32) , at 32 I don't know how many HR's Bonds had but it was less than 500 ( I think it was 318 but I'm not sure.) So , A-Rod , barring injury , would be on pace to break the record first , then Pujols.
Bonds had 375 HRs after the season where he was or turned 32.
MikeAD
08-08-2007, 12:43 AM
Ugh, I want to vote for Arod and Griffey. I selected Griffey becasue I think he will get it first. I think/hope he will. Without Injuries he would be here (or around 650 maybe) right now, which would make things all the more interesting.
I think Arod will get it to but he will finish with more than Ken Griffey Jr.
Moose Milligan
08-08-2007, 12:47 AM
I think Alex Rodriguez just won over a new legion of fans tonight.
I know I'm rooting for him.
orioles119
08-08-2007, 12:48 AM
I think Alex Rodriguez just won over a new legion of fans tonight.
I know I'm rooting for him.
Yeah... now if he'll just opt out and play for the Angels next season. Then we could all really root for him.
MikeAD
08-08-2007, 12:50 AM
Yeah... now if he'll just opt out and play for the Angels next season. Then we could all really root for him.
A Vlad Arod back to back combo would be pretty sick.
EddieO's21
08-08-2007, 12:58 AM
i don't care as long as someone does it who hasn't cheated...period
ixcuincle
08-08-2007, 01:01 AM
i don't care as long as someone does it who hasn't cheated...period
I hope the next home run king is not only someone who hasn't cheated , but someone who is a class act too. Bonds was not exactly known for being a classy character during his career (see Game of Shadows , alleged mistress , tax evasion , being a butthole to the media , etc etc etc).
MikeAD
08-08-2007, 01:02 AM
i don't care as long as someone does it who hasn't cheated...period
Come on, theres a good chance that everyone on that list has used steriods or some form of human growth.
I would LOVE to believe that Griffey never did, as he is the only one on that list i really care for, but come on.
Icterus galbula
08-08-2007, 01:04 AM
The Jayson Stark article a few days back said that current career projections suggest that Arod has a 48% chance to get to 756. Those odds were lower than I initially expected, but when you think about it, Arod would need 6 40-HR seasons, in his 33-38 age seasons, and would still be short. Father time catches up to most ballplayers and my gut tells me that we won't see Arod attain the goal.
I'll play the odds and vote none of the above.
MikeAD
08-08-2007, 01:05 AM
And Im not accusing all of the above as steroid users, Im just saying that we really don't know and theres a good chance they all "cheated." Lets just hope/assume that MLB has made it so none of them are using it now..
i don't care as long as someone does it who hasn't cheated...period
Well you won't know that, well unless you know he has "cheated."
Shouldn't no one at least be an option? Arod is the logical choice, but there's still a decent chance injuries and or decline keep him from hitting 260+ more hr's.
HoodGuy007
08-08-2007, 01:20 AM
I think ARod will. He's a good guy. Yeah, he makes an ton of money... is that his fault? He tries to make others play to his level by yelling from the bench... you better bet I want my MVP trying to help others reach his pinnacle. He's the best baseball player of alltime at this rate, and he deserves every record he can get.
BaltimoreTerp
08-08-2007, 01:21 AM
Rodriguez has averaged 44 home runs per season, and is on pace for 52 this year.
If he continues that pace, he is at 516 after this season. If he can stay healthy and average 35 per season for the next ten years, by age 42 he will be at 866 home runs.
Pujols has averaged 43 home runs per season, and is on pace for 36 this year.
If he continues that pace, he is at 286 after this season. If he can stay healthy and average 35 per season for the next fifteen years, by age 42 he will be at 811 home runs. If he averages 40 home runs for the next fifteen years, he will be at 886 home runs.
At this point, those two are the only ones with a real chance, until Billy Rowell breaks the record in 2030.
Rodriguez has averaged 44 home runs per season, and is on pace for 52 this year.
If he continues that pace, he is at 516 after this season. If he can stay healthy and average 35 per season for the next ten years, by age 42 he will be at 866 home runs.
Pujols has averaged 43 home runs per season, and is on pace for 36 this year.
If he continues that pace, he is at 286 after this season. If he can stay healthy and average 35 per season for the next fifteen years, by age 42 he will be at 811 home runs. If he averages 40 home runs for the next fifteen years, he will be at 886 home runs.
At this point, those two are the only ones with a real chance, until Billy Rowell breaks the record in 2030.
Those guys have good shots, but projecting a pace of 35 hr's a year throughout there age 42 seasons is probably too much for "clean" players. And I do think it's funny that so many are now rooting for them so we can have a clean hr king. Why would anyone assume they're clean?
scOtt
08-08-2007, 01:48 AM
I only voted for AROD. He seems like a sure thing.
Puljos should... but has a long way and many years to go. Ryan Howard has even farther to go, but sure does mash.
I don't think Griffey makes it. He needs 160, 170 ish. Even at 30 a year he gets up into his mid 40's, age wise.
BaltimoreTerp
08-08-2007, 01:51 AM
Those guys have good shots, but projecting a pace of 35 hr's a year throughout there age 42 seasons is probably too much for "clean" players. And I do think it's funny that so many are now rooting for them so we can have a clean hr king. Why would anyone assume they're clean?
I don't think they would be hitting thirty-five a year that long. However, when you figure someone like Rodriguez has at least a couple more fifty-home-run seasons left, plus a couple more in the forties, thirty-five on average probably isn't out of the question.
Even though Hank Aaron's last three seasons had 20, 12 and 10 home runs, he averaged 31.3 over his age 33-42 seasons because of bigger years earlier in that period. And he wasn't the home run hitter Rodriguez appears to be.
El Gordo
08-08-2007, 01:56 AM
If you don't believe Bonds used steriods then you probably don't beieve OJ did it. I'm mean they never PROVED he did. Lol. I know Babe Ruth never used steroids and I highly doubt Hank did as well. Bonds is a HOF player as well as a liar and a cheater IMHO.
I don't think they would be hitting thirty-five a year that long. However, when you figure someone like Rodriguez has at least a couple more fifty-home-run seasons left, plus a couple more in the forties, thirty-five on average probably isn't out of the question.
Even though Hank Aaron's last three seasons had 20, 12 and 10 home runs, he averaged 31.3 over his age 33-42 seasons because of bigger years earlier in that period. And he wasn't the home run hitter Rodriguez appears to be.
No, it's not out of the question. He needs to stay healthy, and he needs to stay close to the top of his game for awhile.
DrungoHazewood
08-08-2007, 07:48 AM
Pujols has to average 45 homers a year for the next five years just to keep up with ARod. That's a huge pace, one that only a handful of players have ever accomplished in any era. To break Bonds he'll have to do that into his 40s, which is very, very unlikely. The record for homers by a 40+ year old is still 34, by Darrell Evans in '87, and he's the only person in history to hit even 30 homers at that age. Craig Biggio's 21 homers at 40 last year made the top 10.
I wish I still had my Favorite Toy spreadsheet - it's Bill James' old tool for predicting the chances someone has to break a record. I kind of swagged it in my Nick Markakis article coming up with about a 10% chance he reaches 3000 hits, might have to do that again with ARod and Pujols. I'd guess ARod has about a 30% or 40% chance of passing 756, Pujols maybe 20%.
DrungoHazewood
08-08-2007, 08:41 AM
ESPN has a Favorite Toy calculator (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments). Projecting ARod out to 150 games this year and 48 homers, it gives him a 25% chance at 800 homers.
Given the same assumptions Pujols has a 16% chance at 800. Griffey's chance is 0%. Ryan Howard is projected to end up with about 450 homers, and also has a 0% chance at 800.
bobmc
08-08-2007, 09:50 AM
I'm going with Matt Wieters! :002_scool:
NewMarketSean
08-08-2007, 12:40 PM
A-Rod will do it. Pujols has a shot, but Griffey has been injured for too long and will soon decline. I don't think Vlad will stay healthy enough to be able to do it.
Bosibus
08-08-2007, 04:38 PM
I think Pujols will only has a couple more great years, then an MVP year, then have a bunch of good years to follow. Of course, this is just my instinct, I have no data or information.
Kind of like Andre Dawson.
I vote A-Rod.
scOtt
08-11-2007, 03:37 PM
To bump this, Fox brings up another guy who is "on pace"... Prince Fielder. Like Ryan Howard, he has a LONG way to go, but he mashes too.
MikeAD
08-11-2007, 04:18 PM
Rick Ankiel.
DrungoHazewood
08-12-2007, 10:16 AM
To bump this, Fox brings up another guy who is "on pace"... Prince Fielder. Like Ryan Howard, he has a LONG way to go, but he mashes too.
Fat guys with old player's skills at 22 don't usually age well. I'm betting on a Mo Vaughn, Boog Powell kind of career.
Moose Milligan
08-12-2007, 10:17 AM
I think Pujols will only has a couple more great years, then an MVP year, then have a bunch of good years to follow. Of course, this is just my instinct, I have no data or information.
Kind of like Andre Dawson.
I vote A-Rod.
Uh...what?
Lt Melmo
08-13-2007, 01:29 AM
A-Rod will, but with Pujols a lot of it depends on just how old of a "27" he is.
It sucks, I was expecting him to break the single-season record this year. Last year, before he got hurt, there was talk of him hitting 80. I still think he has it in him, but I also think the guy might be 30.
I think ARod will pass Bonds, and then Pujols will pass ARod.
DrungoHazewood
08-13-2007, 11:20 AM
A-Rod will, but with Pujols a lot of it depends on just how old of a "27" he is.
It sucks, I was expecting him to break the single-season record this year. Last year, before he got hurt, there was talk of him hitting 80. I still think he has it in him, but I also think the guy might be 30.
Not really. Even if he's really 27 he has to average 35 homers a year through his 42nd birthday to get to 800. That's 35 homers a year through the year 2022. Or 44 homers a year through age 39. He's averaged about 40 a year so far. That's a very tall order, indeed.
Bosibus
08-13-2007, 11:57 AM
Uh...what?
Haha, I just laughed out loud at my desk from what I wrote.
Basically, in a nutshell, what I was trying to say is that I do not think Pujols will hold up as long as most of the other HR kings will, health wise. Think Griffey.
Sorry about that post, I am still laughing at it...people are thinking I am crazy at my desk.