Dissapointed in Rowell?

[Tony-OH]

If you are, maybe you should consider this information:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1006105#post1006105

[DrShorebird]

Fantastic post Tony !!!!! Great research !!!! Great choice for comparison. Outstanding !

[Fairfax Bird]

Yeah, I have never really been dissapointed in Rowell this year. He is holding his own against much older competetion. I would think that his OPS ends up around .775 this year, climbing to 850 next year split between high-A and AA and then .900 in AAA before a promotion to the big club in mid 2009. Maybe my expectations are a bit high.;)

[ChrisP]

Real good comparison, but how'd Howard do against LHP's? ;)

[Three Run Homer]

Given his age and performance level, Rowell is still on track to be a good player. I think the disappointment is that he's not a phenom, someone who dominates at a young age and forces the organization to keep promoting him quickly, the way that the Reds are promoting Jay Bruce this year. You don't have to be a phenom to be a good major league player in the long run, but phenoms have a high rate of developing into major league stars, and it's been a long time since the O's have had a position player who really dominated in the minor leagues at a young age (in fact, I can't recall a single one in the 12 years that I've rooted for this team).

[srh523]

I am glad you started this thread Tony because I so wanted to comment on this post in the prospect tracker! :D
That was a great post and I think we are a little hard on Rowell because the expectation are so high. Sometimes it is hard to remember he is only 18.
Well I guess if he cant become Ken Griffey then I will settle for Ryan Howard!

[Gurgi]

Check Ripkens numbers at Rowells age. He didnt do as well. Ripken didnt hit his stride till he was 20 or so. Rowell could easily be a HOFer.

[Mark J]

Given his age and performance level, Rowell is still on track to be a good player. I think the disappointment is that he's not a phenom, someone who dominates at a young age and forces the organization to keep promoting him quickly, the way that the Reds are promoting Jay Bruce this year. You don't have to be a phenom to be a good major league player in the long run, but phenoms have a high rate of developing into major league stars, and it's been a long time since the O's have had a position player who really dominated in the minor leagues at a young age (in fact, I can't recall a single one in the 12 years that I've rooted for this team).

Isn't Jay Bruce 2 years older than Rowell?

[Captain E.]

As promising as Rowell continues to be, even with the dip in production this season, we should also keep in mind that there might be lingering effects from the injury (oblique?) that kept him out the first part of the year. While the K's and the L/R splits might not seem as directly related as HR's etc. might be, its possible that there's some general discomfort he's feeling at the plate thats holding him back. Either way, I can't wait to see a full, healthy (knock on wood) season from him next year.

[Mackus]

Theres a big difference in being disappointed in his season and writing him off as a big time prospect.

I really doubt anybody who is saying they aren't disappointed with his season. I doubt anybody would have saiod before the season they'd be happy if Rowell had a .750 OPS. Expectations were very high, perhaps even unreasonably high. He hasn't met those, so disappointment is inevitable.

That said, he is still very young, has a ton of potential, and is doing well enough that by no means has he lost his standing as a top prospect. Maybe he hasn't moved up the list as a prospect, but he hasn't fallen down the list very far.

[Three Run Homer]

Isn't Jay Bruce 2 years older than Rowell?

Sure. But wouldn't you love to have a 20 year old tearing it up at AAA?

[Fairfax Bird]

Sure. But wouldn't you love to have a 20 year old tearing it up at AAA?


Well here you are making Tony's patience point again.

Here are some stats on Jay Bruce and Billy Rowell.

Jay Bruce OPSs:

18 yr old in GCL / Rookie league: .815/.831
19 yr old low A: .871
20 yr old A+/AA/AAA: .965/.1057/.1093

Billy Rowell OPSs:

17 yr old in Rookie / Short-Season A: .929/.876
18 yr old in low A: .773

I am midly dissapointed in the HRs, but that will come, I also believe Rowell ends the year around .815-.825 OPS. So, what have we learned: 1. Rowell is playing a level ahead of Jay Bruce's pace. That Rowell thoroughly outplayed Jay Bruce at the rookie league level even though he was a year younger. That Bruce had a very good 19 year old season at low A. That Bruce has GONE NUTS this year.

Maybe Billy GOES NUTS next year, but really he has two years before he is in his 20 year old season and he may very well become as good if not better than Jay Bruce.