Weiters in Frederick/Bowie in 2008

[AVencill]

Explain to me why everyone thinks Weiters should be in Frederick, or even Bowie in 2008 (provided he signs)? Is his bat that amazing that he should be in high-A ball? Why wasn't Adam Loewen automatically placed in Frederick before he signed.

IMO, Weiters (if signed) should be in Delmarva to start the season. If he's doing amazing, promote him after 100 games or so.

[Avsfan]

Logic is that once he signs he'll be a top 20 prospect in the entire majors....his bat is superior, and he looks to rise very rapidly (think Ryan Zimmerman/Stephen Drew types)

[JJLinn29]

Explain to me why everyone thinks Weiters should be in Frederick, or even Bowie in 2008 (provided he signs)? Is his bat that amazing that he should be in high-A ball? Why wasn't Adam Loewen automatically placed in Frederick before he signed.

IMO, Weiters (if signed) should be in Delmarva to start the season. If he's doing amazing, promote him after 100 games or so.

Loewen didn't start in Frederick because he was 18 when he was drafted. Wieters is 21.

[scarey1999]

Logic is that once he signs he'll be a top 20 prospect in the entire majors....his bat is superior, and he looks to rise very rapidly (think Ryan Zimmerman/Stephen Drew types)How about Ryan Braun type? That might make some folks around here happy!

[Avsfan]

How about Ryan Braun type? That might make some folks around here happy!


Actually Braun struggled quite a bit in the minors...he was drafted the same time as Zimmerman, and got to the majors almost 1 1/2 years after Zimmerman.

[DocJJ]

IF he signs, he should definitely start at Frederick. He was tabbed as closest to the majors per Baseball America.

[Flosman]

I am going to base it on Jordan saying that he thought Wieters could handle AA with very few problems when he was interviewed right after the draft. He mentioned that if he took awhile to sign he might start at Fredrick just to get up to speed.

[BaltBird 24]

Actually Braun struggled quite a bit in the minors...he was drafted the same time as Zimmerman, and got to the majors almost 1 1/2 years after Zimmerman.

That's because Zimmerman spent about 20 minutes in the minors.

I guess you could say Bruan had a less than stellar month or two in A+, but it's tough to say someone 'struggled quite a bit' when they had a career .946 OPS in the minors. Zimmerman's was .941.

[Fairfax Bird]

Explain to me why everyone thinks Weiters should be in Frederick, or even Bowie in 2008 (provided he signs)? Is his bat that amazing that he should be in high-A ball? Why wasn't Adam Loewen automatically placed in Frederick before he signed.

IMO, Weiters (if signed) should be in Delmarva to start the season. If he's doing amazing, promote him after 100 games or so.


Well, how about Weiters in Frederick in 2007. He is going to bring home the Carolina League for you. Weiters is a special talent. Don't be afraid of it.:D

[sonderweg]

That's because Zimmerman spent about 20 minutes in the minors.

As I recall, that was also a contributing factor in getting Zimmerman signed so quickly. He signed quicker and for less in exchange for going almost directly to AA ball (he spent a few games down at Savannah). I doubt a Boras client, Such as Weiters, will make such a trade-off.

[Mackus]

Explain to me why everyone thinks Weiters should be in Frederick, or even Bowie in 2008 (provided he signs)? Is his bat that amazing that he should be in high-A ball? Why wasn't Adam Loewen automatically placed in Frederick before he signed.

IMO, Weiters (if signed) should be in Delmarva to start the season. If he's doing amazing, promote him after 100 games or so.Weiters is already too advanced for Frederick. If he starts there it is only to shake off the rust of not having played since his college season ended. If he had signed shortly after the draft he would have likely gone directly to Bowie.

I'll be surprised if he's not in the majors to stay by the end of next season.

[hoosiers]

Wieters is an advanced college bat with perhaps the best plate discipline of any bat we've drafted in a long, long time.

IMO, he should start at Frederick to get acclimated to pro ball and move up to Bowie when the stats warrant - could be quick.

[RayFink1e]

Looking at who we passed up to take Adam Loewen is so crushing.

[Mackus]

Looking at who we passed up to take Adam Loewen is so crushing.Loewen was still a great pick IMO. Sucks that he got hurt this season, but I still think he's gonna look awesome in the #2 spot of our rotation for a long time.

[ChrisP]

My inside source said the he'll be up next year and that local travel companies are already putting together trips to Cooperstown around 2030.:D

[RayFink1e]

With the #4 pick in the draft though, I want a star. IMO Loewen will never be a #1 Starter, #2 at best. Prince Fielder would look real good

[Mackus]

With the #4 pick in the draft though, I want a star. IMO Loewen will never be a #1 Starter, #2 at best. Prince Fielder would look real goodHow many stars come out of each draft? Its not that many, so you can't be expecting a star out of every top pick.

Getting a #2 starter out of a #4 pick would be fantastic. I'd take that every single year.

[Jenius]

With the #4 pick in the draft though, I want a star. IMO Loewen will never be a #1 Starter, #2 at best. Prince Fielder would look real good
Sorry, but even the most cursory look at the history of top draft picks will tell you that it is something of a crapshoot. As they say, hindsight is 20/20. Besides, as good as Fielder is, there are plenty of power-hitting first basemen around (just not on the O's). If Loewen develops into a number 2 starter he will be more valuable, since those are comparatively rare.

[BoysofArbutus]

Loewen still has a chance to develop into a No. 1, but it depends on who he's in a rotation with. If the O's sign Bedard for another 4-5 years, Loewen is potentially an excellent No. 2 with Guthrie at No. 3, making a powerful top of the rotation. If Bedard walks, Loewen could be the No. 1 if he gets healthy.

On the topic, though, Weiters, if signed, is in Bowie next year and ready for a mid-season call up. Hernandez will be in his contract year, so Weiters can spell him once a week and spend some time DHing up to the trade deadline. That's when you deal Ramon to a contender for something substantial. A proven defensive catcher that will hit .275-.280 will bring value.

[hoosiers]

With the #4 pick in the draft though, I want a star. IMO Loewen will never be a #1 Starter, #2 at best. Prince Fielder would look real good

Loewen was the closest thing to Steve Avery and the "kid with the golden arm" when he was drafted. He was rated about where we took him.

This board would have gone up in flames if we had drafted Jeff Francis or Joe Saunders.

Loewen still has a nice enough upside.

[Jericho]

Actually Braun struggled quite a bit in the minors...he was drafted the same time as Zimmerman, and got to the majors almost 1 1/2 years after Zimmerman.

You should look again at Braun's stats in the minors. After signing he got some time late in the year at rookie level and low A ball and destroyed it. He spent 2006 split between high A ball and AA, and hit pretty well. The only thing really keeping him from the majors this spring was his defense.

Yes, Zimmerman got to the majors faster, but that's because the Nats were ridiculously agressive in pushing him. He played a half season at AA and then was in the majors. That's not typical.

Elite college ball (which is what Georgia Tech plays) is equated to AA ball, so I can see starting at or around that level with Weiters. Kansas City did the same with Alex Gordon. Starting him straight at AA. Coincidentally, Gordon was the same draft class as Braun and Zimmerman and considered the best propsect of the bunch.

[Crazysilver03]

Loewen still has a chance to develop into a No. 1, but it depends on who he's in a rotation with. If the O's sign Bedard for another 4-5 years, Loewen is potentially an excellent No. 2 with Guthrie at No. 3, making a powerful top of the rotation. If Bedard walks, Loewen could be the No. 1 if he gets healthy.

On the topic, though, Weiters, if signed, is in Bowie next year and ready for a mid-season call up. Hernandez will be in his contract year, so Weiters can spell him once a week and spend some time DHing up to the trade deadline. That's when you deal Ramon to a contender for something substantial. A proven defensive catcher that will hit .275-.280 will bring value.

Ramon's contract year is 2009 with half of the team, though I could still see him getting traded next year at the deadline.

On the topic of Weiters, he is too advanced to be in A. As stated, he will only be there to get rust off. If he signs a major league contract, it will make it even more tempting to call him up to the majors.

[Zaimoku]

On the topic of Weiters, he is too advanced to be in A.

Until he actually starts to play professional baseball for the first time in his life, there is no way of knowing just how advanced he is. It's all hype until we see the performance.

[Tony-OH]

Elite college ball (which is what Georgia Tech plays) is equated to AA ball, so I can see starting at or around that level with Weiters. Kansas City did the same with Alex Gordon. Starting him straight at AA. Coincidentally, Gordon was the same draft class as Braun and Zimmerman and considered the best propsect of the bunch.

Elite college ball is nowhere near Double-A level. The vast majority of the players playing the top college ball are not even pro prospects. I would say it's a lot closer to Sally League or Rookie level....

[wildcard]

Elite college ball is nowhere near Double-A level. The vast majority of the players playing the top college ball are not even pro prospects. I would say it's a lot closer to Sally League or Rookie level....

So are you thinking that Wieters moves up one level and starts at Delmarva?

[OPACY]

Elite college ball is nowhere near Double-A level. The vast majority of the players playing the top college ball are not even pro prospects. I would say it's a lot closer to Sally League or Rookie level....

Bob Horner was once asked how he felt his college experience prepared him to play in the Bigs. He described the level of competition he experienced at Arizona State as equivalent to the Double-A level.

[RZNJ]

Bob Horner was once asked how he felt his college experience prepared him to play in the Bigs. He described the level of competition he experienced at Arizona State as equivalent to the Double-A level.

That's fine, but how can it be even close to AA level if 99% of the players are not ready to play at the AA level? 90% of the college players drafted, start there first full year at the low A level, and that doesn't even take into account the players are aren't even drafted at all, which is high. Maybe Bob Horner's no genius. It's only common sense. No?

[hoosiers]

That's fine, but how can it be even close to AA level if 99% of the players are not ready to play at the AA level? 90% of the college players drafted, start there first full year at the low A level, and that doesn't even take into account the players are aren't even drafted at all, which is high. Maybe Bob Horner's no genius. It's only common sense. No?

This appears to be the most obvious and sensical explanation.

It borders on the preposterous that someone could conclude that the average player in an elite college program could be successful in AA.

[Lucky Jim]

Loewen still has a chance to develop into a No. 1, but it depends on who he's in a rotation with. If the O's sign Bedard for another 4-5 years, Loewen is potentially an excellent No. 2 with Guthrie at No. 3, making a powerful top of the rotation. If Bedard walks, Loewen could be the No. 1 if he gets healthy.

Yeah. I mean, who'd want Tom Glavine or John Smoltz with the 4th pick in the draft. ;)

[RayFink1e]

Loewen is not a thinking mans pitcher like Glavine. And his stuff is no where near Smoltzs level. Loewen was barely cracking 90 MPH with his fastball. He looks no better then Garrett Olson to me.

[Mizerooskie]

Loewen is not a thinking mans pitcher like Glavine. And his stuff is no where near Smoltzs level. Loewen was barely cracking 90 MPH with his fastball. He looks no better then Garrett Olson to me.

Loewen was consistently in the 93-95 range with his fastball last season, and that's with some serious cutting action. You are seriously underestimating his stuff. I may be in the minority, but I think it's better than Bedard's.

[Crazysilver03]

Loewen was consistently in the 93-95 range with his fastball last season, and that's with some serious cutting action. You are seriously underestimating his stuff. I may be in the minority, but I think it's better than Bedard's.

I am in that minority with you. I think Loewen's stuff can be better than Bedards.

[Flosman]

Can be better and is better are two different statements. Bedard is as good has just about anyone in baseball. The difference is Adam's ceiling is at that level, bedard is actually at that level.

[Lucky Jim]

Loewen was consistently in the 93-95 range with his fastball last season, and that's with some serious cutting action. You are seriously underestimating his stuff. I may be in the minority, but I think it's better than Bedard's.

I've never seen Loewen consistently in the 93-95mph range. When I've watched him (virtually every major league start he's made) he's worked in the 89-92 range, with an occasional fastball at 93-94.

[Mizerooskie]

I've never seen Loewen consistently in the 93-95mph range. When I've watched him (virtually every major league start he's made) he's worked in the 89-92 range, with an occasional fastball at 93-94.

Well maybe we're watching two different radar guns, because every time I've watched him, his fast ball sat comfortably at 93, and he's cranked it up to 95 when reaching back. Sure, he takes some off at times, but he can still pitch (from what I've seen) in the 93-95 range.

[RZNJ]

I've never seen Loewen consistently in the 93-95mph range. When I've watched him (virtually every major league start he's made) he's worked in the 89-92 range, with an occasional fastball at 93-94.

I'm with you. I've seen him touch 93-94, but the great majority of the time he's 88-92. No way was he ever consistently in the 93-95 range. Anyone who states otherwise should get their eyes tested or change the orange colored tint on their shades to something more neutral.

[O's fan from NC]

The reason Loewen usually sits between 88 and 92 is because he throws a cutter. That takes some velocity off the ball. I'm sure his 4 seamer is a few miles per hour faster.

[Jenius]

I'm with you. I've seen him touch 93-94, but the great majority of the time he's 88-92. No way was he ever consistently in the 93-95 range. Anyone who states otherwise should get their eyes tested or change the orange colored tint on their shades to something more neutral.
There's a great way to make your point...insult everyone who disagrees. It sounds like people have seen two different readings on the gun. The scouting report on Loewen since he was drafted was that he threw comfortably in the low-mid 90s. With some of the injuries and questions about his mechanics, it seems he has varied between that and a less impressive (~90) range. Either way, it certainly is disputable and it's both childish and errant for you to insult/denigrate all who hold the opposite view of yourself. Not to mention, you have provided all of ZERO evidence that your argument is correct.

Also, I think O's fan from NC may be onto something, considering Loewen's preference for sinkers/cutters v the 4-seamer.

[Mackus]

There's a great way to make your point...insult everyone who disagrees. It sounds like people have seen two different readings on the gun. The scouting report on Loewen since he was drafted was that he threw comfortably in the low-mid 90s. With some of the injuries and questions about his mechanics, it seems he has varied between that and a less impressive (~90) range. Either way, it certainly is disputable and it's both childish and errant for you to insult/denigrate all who hold the opposite view of yourself. Not to mention, you have provided all of ZERO evidence that your argument is correct.

Also, I think O's fan from NC may be onto something, considering Loewen's preference for sinkers/cutters v the 4-seamer.Where Loewen's velocity sits isn't really on opinion or a viewpoint, though. I've never seen him sit at 93-95 for most of a game. He's almost always in the 88-92 range. He can dial it up faster, but he certainly hasn't had games where he stays that high all game.

[Hank Scorpio]

Where Loewen's velocity sits isn't really on opinion or a viewpoint, though. I've never seen him sit at 93-95 for most of a game. He's almost always in the 88-92 range. He can dial it up faster, but he certainly hasn't had games where he stays that high all game.

What he said.

Loewen's fastball velocity is usually 88-92.

[DrungoHazewood]

Elite college ball is nowhere near Double-A level. The vast majority of the players playing the top college ball are not even pro prospects. I would say it's a lot closer to Sally League or Rookie level....

High-level college ball might not be AA, but it's not Rookie League, either.

The problem with any of these college-pro translations is that college teams and leagues have a wider spread of talent than in a pro league. In a sense NCAA ball is more like Japan or Mexico, or any independent league that isn't automatically funneling 100% of their best players to the majors - you'll have players in college who'd never be drafted in a million years, but you also have guys like Weiters who're nearly MLB hitters right now. Yes, there are pitchers at the back end of college pens with 72 mph fastballs, but you also have guys equivalent to Huston Street who'll go from the College WS to closing major league games in six weeks.

And that goes for whole teams and leagues, too. Georgia Tech or Miami could probably step in and play well in the Carolina League, but a mid-level Big East team might have problems in the NY-Penn League. There's just a wide diversity of talent.

[Flosman]

High-level college ball might not be AA, but it's not Rookie League, either.

The problem with any of these college-pro translations is that college teams and leagues have a wider spread of talent than in a pro league. In a sense NCAA ball is more like Japan or Mexico, or any independent league that isn't automatically funneling 100% of their best players to the majors - you'll have players in college who'd never be drafted in a million years, but you also have guys like Weiters who're nearly MLB hitters right now. Yes, there are pitchers at the back end of college pens with 72 mph fastballs, but you also have guys equivalent to Huston Street who'll go from the College WS to closing major league games in six weeks.

And that goes for whole teams and leagues, too. Georgia Tech or Miami could probably step in and play well in the Carolina League, but a mid-level Big East team might have problems in the NY-Penn League. There's just a wide diversity of talent.

I think this is a spot on statement. I would think the scouts would look at how players do when they face the cream of the crop to try to determine at what level a college player is at. Now this screams sample size problems, but I would imagine it is how it is done anyway.

I think I will trust Jordan's view that he is already at the AA level in his play.

[hoosiers]

Georgia Tech or Miami could probably step in and play well in the Carolina League, but a mid-level Big East team might have problems in the NY-Penn League. There's just a wide diversity of talent.

There is no way the current GaTech roster could "play well" in the Carolina league over the course of a season. They would not have appropriate depth either offensively (moving to a wood bat) or (especially) pitching-wise - going five starters deep.

[DrungoHazewood]

There is no way the current GaTech roster could "play well" in the Carolina league over the course of a season. They would not have appropriate depth either offensively (moving to a wood bat) or (especially) pitching-wise - going five starters deep.

Isn't that essentially what I was saying? The top level talent in the ACC is probably just as good as that in high A, maybe better, but the back ends of the rosters don't match up. Hence the unaffiliated league comparison.

[hoosiers]

I thought you posted that GaTech could be dropped into the Carolina league and "play well" right now.

I believe GaTech would finish as the last place team in a High A league.

[Eight]

I'd have a hard time believing that the level of play at any ACC school is near the Carolina League. No doubt the very best players like Weiters or Teixeira are good enough to thrive at a level that high. But just looking over the guys drafted out of GT the past few years, and it's all guys who started out no higher than low-A. And these guys didn't exactly dominate in the way you'd expect if they were playing one or two levels below where they should be.

[orioole28]

There is no way the current GaTech roster could "play well" in the Carolina league over the course of a season. They would not have appropriate depth either offensively (moving to a wood bat) or (especially) pitching-wise - going five starters deep.

I agree 100%. Just look at Frederick's rotation and any of those 5 would easily be No. 1's or 2's in any top Division 1 league(ACC, Pac-10, etc)

[BoysofArbutus]

Erbe would have been a top pitcher at an ACC school, Miami, if he had not signed with the O's