McPhail: Bullpen to require attention this offseason

[bigbird]

"You have to know how long you'll be without [Baez] if at all," MacPhail said. "But clearly, the bullpen is an area that is going to require attention in the offseason, either way."


Who besides Bradford and Walker can you pencil into the 2008 pen right now and hope to be somewhat decent? MAzzone hit the nail on the head in saying guys are showing us why they shouldn't be here.

[orioles119]

Leicester, maybe.

[Sapper]

It's obvious that the bullpen needs attention. But so does every other part of the team. BLOW IT UP!!!!!!

[orioles119]

It's obvious that the bullpen needs attention. But so does every other part of the team. BLOW IT UP!!!!!!
Way to stay on topic.

[slaphitter]

Rob Bell is first in line. Everyone else gets a 3 inning chance this spring. ha

[BaltBird 24]

Upgrading the bullpen while once again ignoring to make significant changes to the offense will once against result in a 70 win season.

[SombodysMom]

"You have to know how long you'll be without [Baez] if at all," MacPhail said. "But clearly, the bullpen is an area that is going to require attention in the offseason, either way."


Who besides Bradford and Walker can you pencil into the 2008 pen right now and hope to be somewhat decent? MAzzone hit the nail on the head in saying guys are showing us why they shouldn't be here.

Burres should be okay for most of the season. Hopefully his ugly stretches will be short. Leicester, maybe.

[utvolzac]

Whatever they do, don't throw big contracts & draft picks at the pen. Sign a bunch of guys to minor league contracts, combined with the young guys and see who sticks.

[olehippi]

Hoey....he's still a work in progress, but sending him back to AAA won't solve his control problems. Hopefully working with Mazzone the rest of the season, and ST next spring, will do the trick.

[bgtimber75]

Oh no, not again. What's this going to be the third year in a row? More draft picks down the drain?

[JTrea81]

With Baez and Ray out I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to sign more bullpen guys. The guy I want is Mike MacDonald from the Jays organization. He is a ground ball machine and he doesn't walk alot of guys. He does get killed vs. LHP but maybe Mazzone or Dunn could help him in that regard. He'd be a nice Rule V pickup for us. He was drafted as a reliever but he's started every year.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Mike%20MacDonald&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453973

[Objectivity]

We spent like a gajillion dollars last offseason to improve the bullpen. Then we put a bunch of guys in position to fail and didn't give others the opportunity to succeed.

None of that matters though. Without consistent starting pitchers that put your bullpen in position for success and an offense that isn't consistently inconsistent and/or offensive it doesn't matter how great your bullpen is. The best they can do is stop the 23-28th runs from being scored. They can't do anything to stop the initial onslaught or outscore the opponent.

Build a team that looks like it will be successful based on what you can likely expect from each member, not a team that might squeak out 82 wins if everyone has a career year.

[bgtimber75]

We spent like a gajillion dollars last offseason to improve the bullpen. Then we put a bunch of guys in position to fail and didn't give others the opportunity to succeed.

None of that matters though. Without consistent starting pitchers that put your bullpen in position for success and an offense that isn't consistently inconsistent and/or offensive it doesn't matter how great your bullpen is. The best they can do is stop the 23-28th runs from being scored. They can't do anything to stop the initial onslaught or outscore the opponent.

Build a team that looks like it will be successful based on what you can likely expect from each member, not a team that might squeak out 82 wins if everyone has a career year.

Good post. If we had starters that could give us 7 or so strong innings the BP wouldn't be as big of an issue. When we're counting on the pen to pitch 3-4 innings a night it's a recipe for disaster.

[markakis4pres]

Good post. If we had starters that could give us 7 or so strong innings the BP wouldn't be as big of an issue. When we're counting on the pen to pitch 3-4 innings a night it's a recipe for disaster.

Walks Walks Walks

It comes down to that with this team

[Sports Guy]

Put the young guys in the pen.

Birkins and Bell shouldn't be considered, especially Bell.

[Darthy Katt]

The fact that the Orioles' bullpen stinks is so obvious even non-baseball fans comment about it.

[os1971]

Put the young guys in the pen.

Birkins and Bell shouldn't be considered, especially Bell.

Exactly the right answer. If we go out and throw more perfectly good money down the drain on the bulllpen we are complete morons. Personally I'd be looking at getting rid of Bradford. He's too much of a specialty pitcher.

Keep Walker for some stability and just go with the young guys; Hoey, Cherry, Doyne, Birkins, Cabrera etc. Let them do or die. I they die bring up more young guys from AAA throughout the season and see what they can do. Don't clog the bullpen with vets and limit your roster flexibility.

Utilize guys like Liz, Penn, Burres (whoever drops out of the starting rotation) as Long releivers and make them do real long relief work.

[scOtt]

We spent like a gajillion dollars last offseason to improve the bullpen. Then we put a bunch of guys in position to fail and didn't give others the opportunity to succeed.

None of that matters though. Without consistent starting pitchers that put your bullpen in position for success and an offense that isn't consistently inconsistent and/or offensive it doesn't matter how great your bullpen is. The best they can do is stop the 23-28th runs from being scored. They can't do anything to stop the initial onslaught or outscore the opponent.

Build a team that looks like it will be successful based on what you can likely expect from each member, not a team that might squeak out 82 wins if everyone has a career year.
The opposite of that is, if our rotation (still promising next year...) pitches well, and the pen blows lead after lead, where is the progress?

Baez and Ray are gone. GONE. We need a lot, but part of that is an arm or two in the pen. There's no getting around it. You can't ignore two key parts going down.

[scOtt]

Put the young guys in the pen.

Birkins and Bell shouldn't be considered, especially Bell.

What young guys??? The same ones who are making 3-run deficits into 10-run deficits?

We got 3 vets last year, two are solid, one was injured... all year. We need arms beyond the guys Mazzone laughs at. What part of "Not Ready For Prime Time" don't you understand?

[Roy Firestone]

Pitch counts are a way of life.
It isnt going back to the way it was.
Big money is invested in young arms and those arms are trained to not exceed 105-110 pitches.
When our pitchers near 90 pitches, no matter what the score is, our relievers have action in the pen. Just because a pitcher is dominating doesnt mean a bullpen doesnt work. So these bullpen pitchers(all around the league) are throwing just about every night. This wears on the arms.
When a pitcher comes in for one batter or two batters, it also extends the bullpen and pushes these athletes to do even more.
When an offense struggles, a pitcher is pulled quicker, ie: if the Orioles had a 7-1 lead, the desire to go to the bullpen is diminished or extinguished.
So what have we learrned?
Its all interwoven. Bad starting pitching=strains the bullpen.
Weak offense= more pressure on the bullpen because a team must press to stay in the game.
Pitch count?Makes bullpen work more often
Bottom line?
This bullpen was overworked(despite the fact that the O's didnt have the most innings from the pen). The hitting did it, the starting pitching did it, the managerial decisions did it too.
We have to re-think the mindset of relief pitching.
Maybe we carry more, or we rotate pitchers on a regular basis from the minor leagues to have more fresh arms available.
Theres so many things to fix with this club, you almost dont know where to start.
But the whole thing must be re-thought! And replaced!

[bigbird]

What young guys??? The same ones who are making 3-run deficits into 10-run deficits?

We got 3 vets last year, two are solid, one was injured... all year. We need arms beyond the guys Mazzone laughs at. What part of "Not Ready For Prime Time" don't you understand?

Bingo.....

[NewMarketSean]

I agree with SG (this has become a common thing). Use the younger guys who lost out of the SP race in the bullpen along with Hoey Walker and Bradford if they are not traded. By going out and spending more money on the bullpen again you set yourself up for another expensive failure like this year.

[clapdiddy]

I agree with SG (this has become a common thing). Use the younger guys who lost out of the SP race in the bullpen along with Hoey Walker and Bradford if they are not traded. By going out and spending more money on the bullpen again you set yourself up for another expensive failure like this year.

And you also set yourself up for losing draft picks...this team can't afford to lose another second and/or third round pick for signing relief pitchers.

[Fairfax Bird]

Rely on the emergence of some of these kids. We aren't winning in 2008. 2008 should be about evaluation.

Bradford
Walker
Hoey (nothing to prove in minors)
Burress
Cherry/F. Cabrera
Leicester
Liz/Olson/Penn

check that ... go with the kids. Liz/Olson/Penn, whoever loses out on the starting rotation.

[RZNJ]

What young guys??? The same ones who are making 3-run deficits into 10-run deficits?

We got 3 vets last year, two are solid, one was injured... all year. We need arms beyond the guys Mazzone laughs at. What part of "Not Ready For Prime Time" don't you understand?


The part that says you write guys off so quickly. Hoey will be fine if the O's just stick with him. I wouldn't be surprised if Liz would be a decent guy out of the pen as well, with consistent work. If Olson is healthy, and isn't in the rotation, he'd be a good candidate as well. Rocky Cherry looks like a contributor for next season as well. So now Baez's entire season is being blamed on being injured? Where did you read that?

The Florida Marlins stunk for two months last year while their young kids were getting their feet wet and gaining confidence. Markakis stunk for two months before he came around. A little patience with some of they young guys would go a long way. Looks like you're in the Bigbird camp, which is going with the same tired vets and looking at a bloated payroll and an underachieving team with no future.

[wildcard]

The O's need to add a veteran closer and another establish reliever to Walker and Bradford.

Then they can pick the last three in the pen from Burres, Leicester, Olson, Penn, F Cabrera, Hoey, Doyne, Cherry and Birkins.

[clapdiddy]

The O's need to add a veteran closer and another establish reliever to Walker and Bradford.

Then they can pick the last three in the pen from Burres, Leicester, Olson, Penn, F Cabrera, Hoey, Doyne, Cherry and Birkins.
This team does NOT need to add a veteran closer or reliever. Why do we want to spend that money and lose that draft pick on a veteran?

I agree with Fairfax...next season needs to be about evaluation and rejuvenation. This team isn't winning anything. Too many holes to fill.

[wildcard]

This team does NOT need to add a veteran closer or reliever. Why do we want to spend that money and lose that draft pick on a veteran?

I agree with Fairfax...next season needs to be about evaluation and rejuvenation. This team isn't winning anything. Too many holes to fill.


Until the ratings come out on who requires a draft choice, we don't know who is available that does not cost one. There is also the trade route.

I am not thinking that signing big FA is the only way to fill these spots.

Last year Embree did not cost a draft choice and he has done a nice job for the A's.

[Fairfax Bird]

Until the ratings come out on who requires a draft choice, we don't know who is available that does not cost one. There is also the trade route.

I am not thinking that signing big FA is the only way to fill these spots.

Last year Embree did not cost a draft choice and he has done a nice job for the A's.

The problem with relievers is it is a crap shoot. Embree was good this year, might be bad next year. Rather evaluate the young talent we have.

[wildcard]

The problem with relievers is it is a crap shoot. Embree was good this year, might be bad next year. Rather evaluate the young talent we have.

Two established relievers may cost Angelos a little more but I think a mix of veterans and still having three spots in the pen for the young guys is a better approach.

It would be really hard on everyone - players, FO and fans - if the team just used kids and they preformed like they have the last month.

[Dr. FLK]

I'm all for having the young guys have a shot to make the pen, but none of them are really showing that they deserve it. I think Hoey should get a spot to lose. Now, his performance will determine what type of situations he's in. So, that gives a bullpen of Walker, Bradford, and Hoey for sure. Baez is in there if he's healthy. And, who else? I was hoping Liz would show he belonged in the pen, but he hasn't yet. I don't want any more Birkins or Burres. I don't want Bell. Maybe Fernando Cabrera earns a shot. But, right now, we have a bullpen consisting of 2 competent setup men and no one else. Kinda scary.

[bgtimber75]

Personally I could care less what the relievers cost PA. As long as we're not blowing draft picks and trying to "corner" the reliever market I'm fine. It seemed like Flanny and Duq were trying to writer there own "Moneyball" with the way they went about last years off season.

[WhoRU]

SP

Bedard
Loewen
Guthrie
DCab :eek:/Penn/Olson/Liz/Burress
Cheap Vet (Clement?)

BP

Hoey
Bradford
Walker
Liz/Olson/Burress/Penn/DCab/Cherry/Leicester

I think we should sign a cheap vetern starter and let most of the young starters start in the bullpen. I Like Clement personally because of his stuff preoperation. Let the young guys build some confidence and then if Clement falters or if someone offers something decent in return then trade him and promote the best qualified. Youve got plenty of long guys this way and they al get ML ewxperience instead of beiing in AAA again.

[Sports Guy]

What young guys??? The same ones who are making 3-run deficits into 10-run deficits?

We got 3 vets last year, two are solid, one was injured... all year. We need arms beyond the guys Mazzone laughs at. What part of "Not Ready For Prime Time" don't you understand?

And what part of pissing your money away on unpredictable relievers don't you understand?

What part of we aren't going anywhere don't you understand?

We should be trading Bradford and Walker but assume they are here.

If you want to go out and sign one or 2 guys to CHEAP deals...IE 1 year contracts for less than 2 million a year, i would be ok with that(think Aaron Fultz this year).

But for the most part, it should be the kids....Hoey should definitely be in the pen.

Let guys like Olson, Burres, Penn and Liz fight it out for the rotation and the losers get the pen.

Cherry is showing he could be a good member of the pen....FCab should be here as well but needs work.

I would rather, instead of signing FAs to cheap deals, just bring in a bunch of Guthrie-like guys...Good arms, have been starters...Just dropped by their teams....Bring them all in for ST and let them fight it out.

Saying we need a closer is also a joke....Spending 7+ million a year for a closer is ridiculously stupid.

Hell, maybe even Victor Zambrano enters into this as well.

[Sports Guy]

Two established relievers may cost Angelos a little more but I think a mix of veterans and still having three spots in the pen for the young guys is a better approach.

It would be really hard on everyone - players, FO and fans - if the team just used kids and they preformed like they have the last month.

Since Aug 1:

Bradford: 10 ER in 15 IP
Walker: 8 ER in 13.2 IP
Bell: 25 ER in 22 IP
Baez: 13 ER in 15 IP

WC....Everyone has sucked the last month or so...Open your eyes.

[Baroquen131]

Agreed - tying up so much money in the bullpen last year (and losing draft picks) definitely looks like a mistake in hind-sight.

I pretty much agree with Fairfax Bird's bullpen. Hoey, Walker, Bradford are in.

Birkins hasn't looked good since his first 15 innings in May 2006. And I know some people (or it might be just the one guy) have great love for Rob Bell, but he's been incredibly inconsistent with an ERA over 7. His career stats show nothing to indicate he's going to change - just look at this year: Very good in June (2.57 ERA) and July (3.46 ERA) & horrible in August (11.05) and September (9.95). Just say no to this 30-yr old. Also, no Victors or Todds, please.

I think I'd mostly give a ST look to the multitude of young guys and see which ones have learned from it. Burress, Cherry, F. Cabrera, Leicester, Liz, Olson, or Penn.

I'm not opposed to picking up a cheap, good veteran if available, but, like that's going to happen. But sinking more major money into the bullpen definitely could be a problem because of the unreliable nature of relievers.

[33rdst]

After McPhail's comments regarding Borowski, while he was commenting after the Ray injury, I wouldn't be suprised if he went after someone like Wickman as a stop gap closer.

[LookitsPuck]

Bell and Birkins should not be on this team. Period.

[Witchy Chick]

Two established relievers may cost Angelos a little more but I think a mix of veterans and still having three spots in the pen for the young guys is a better approach.

It would be really hard on everyone - players, FO and fans - if the team just used kids and they preformed like they have the last month.

Or how the "kids" performed last season.

Britton age 23 0-2, 3.35 ERA (after starting out like a house afire)
Rleal age 26 1-1, 4.44 ERA, 23 BBs, 19Ks, 10 HRs in 46 2/3 IP
Birkins age 25 5-2 4.94 ERA in 31 IP
Manon age 32 (why did I think he was a “kid”??) 0-1 5.40 ERA in 20 IP
E. Rodriguez age 24 1-1, 7.20 ERA in 15 IP
Hoey age 23 0-1, 10.24 ERA in 9 2/3
Abreu age 29 (again, why did I think he was a “kid”?) 0-0, 10.13 ERA in 8 IP

We went with a lot of "kids" last year, and they sucked too.


Witchy

[square634]

Or how the "kids" performed last season.

Britton age 23 0-2, 3.35 ERA (after starting out like a house afire)
Rleal age 26 1-1, 4.44 ERA, 23 BBs, 19Ks, 10 HRs in 46 2/3 IP
Birkins age 25 5-2 4.94 ERA in 31 IP
Manon age 32 (why did I think he was a “kid”??) 0-1 5.40 ERA in 20 IP
E. Rodriguez age 24 1-1, 7.20 ERA in 15 IP
Hoey age 23 0-1, 10.24 ERA in 9 2/3
Abreu age 29 (again, why did I think he was a “kid”?) 0-0, 10.13 ERA in 8 IP

We went with a lot of "kids" last year, and they sucked too.


Witchy

The trick to going with the "kids" approach is to actually have kids who young with upside. I think if we let some of our yougn starters pitch out of the pen, even in crucial situations, until injuries open spots in the rotation, our bullpen will be much improved. I'd love to see a rotation of:

Bedard
Loewen
Cabrera (only because he has proven he can eat innings)
Guthrie/good starter through trade or FA
Penn

and a bullpen of:

Bradford
Walker
Olson
Liz
Hoey
Burres (as the long man)
*addition through FA or trade

I think if Ray weren't lost for the season and could fill that last spot, this bullpen would have the potential to be lights out. Of course, this will never happen because the O's will want more "proven veterans" and not want to "ruin the development" of our young starters, but I think other teams (like the Red Sox) have shown that using a young pitcher out of the bullpen doesn't ruin him.

[wildcard]

Since Aug 1:

Bradford: 10 ER in 15 IP
Walker: 8 ER in 13.2 IP
Bell: 25 ER in 22 IP
Baez: 13 ER in 15 IP

WC....Everyone has sucked the last month or so...Open your eyes.

Read my post again. No where does it say anything about how the veterans have done in the last month.

[Sports Guy]

Read my post again. No where does it say anything about how the veterans have done in the last month.

Hence the problem with your post.

[wildcard]

Or how the "kids" performed last season.

Britton age 23 0-2, 3.35 ERA (after starting out like a house afire)
Rleal age 26 1-1, 4.44 ERA, 23 BBs, 19Ks, 10 HRs in 46 2/3 IP
Birkins age 25 5-2 4.94 ERA in 31 IP
Manon age 32 (why did I think he was a “kid”??) 0-1 5.40 ERA in 20 IP
E. Rodriguez age 24 1-1, 7.20 ERA in 15 IP
Hoey age 23 0-1, 10.24 ERA in 9 2/3
Abreu age 29 (again, why did I think he was a “kid”?) 0-0, 10.13 ERA in 8 IP

We went with a lot of "kids" last year, and they sucked too.


Witchy

I agree with the facts you wrote. I just am not sure what you are saying. Are you agreeing that a mix of veterans and kids is the right approach or are you saying there should not be any kids?

[wildcard]

Hence the problem with your post.

Hence the problem with your response.

SG, we are miles apart here. You appear to want to "blow it up" and I don't agree with the approach no matter if it is the pen or the rest of the team.

I agree that going with the kids is consistent with what you have been saying. It is just not the approach that I want to see the O's take. Nor do I expect them to take. If Bedard and Roberts are traded then your approach to the building of the pen makes sense. I do not think either of these two players will be leaving the O's this off season. Nor should they.

The O's have a great leadoff hitter and two guys that on a normal year will hit 100 RBI. They have an Ace and a #2 pitcher. These are normally the expensive parts of a winning team. They O's need to build around these parts. Their need to add at least six player this off season.

#3 starter, closer, another veteran reliever, CF, backup catcher, and probably another hitter. That is not blow it up. That is build around what you have.

The disagreement that we have on the whole team building approach is the same disagreement we have with the pen.

[Sports Guy]

Hence the problem with your response.

SG, we are miles apart here. You appear to want to "blow it up" and I don't agree with the approach no matter if it is the pen or the rest of the team.

I agree that going with the kids is consistent with what you have been saying. It is just not the approach that I want to see the O's take. Nor do I expect them to take. If Bedard and Roberts are traded then your approach to the building of the pen makes sense. I do not think either of these two players will be leaving the O's this off season. Nor should they.

The O's have a great leadoff hitter and two guys that on a normal year will hit 100 RBI. They have an Ace and a #2 pitcher. These are normally the expensive parts of a winning team. They O's need to build around these parts. Their need to add at least six player this off season.

#3 starter, closer, another veteran reliever, CF, backup catcher, and probably another hitter. That is not blow it up. That is build around what you have.

The disagreement that we have on the whole team building approach is the same disagreement we have with the pen.
Yes, the main disagreement is you see things that aren't there.

You think we are close when we are miles away.

Building around what we have is a sure way to be worse off than we are now.

Oh and we don't have a #2 starter either.

[square634]

Hence the problem with your response.

SG, we are miles apart here. You appear to want to "blow it up" and I don't agree with the approach no matter if it is the pen or the rest of the team.

I agree that going with the kids is consistent with what you have been saying. It is just not the approach that I want to see the O's take. Nor do I expect them to take. If Bedard and Roberts are traded then your approach to the building of the pen makes sense. I do not think either of these two players will be leaving the O's this off season. Nor should they.

The O's have a great leadoff hitter and two guys that on a normal year will hit 100 RBI. They have an Ace and a #2 pitcher. These are normally the expensive parts of a winning team. They O's need to build around these parts. Their need to add at least six player this off season.

#3 starter, closer, another veteran reliever, CF, backup catcher, and probably another hitter. That is not blow it up. That is build around what you have.

The disagreement that we have on the whole team building approach is the same disagreement we have with the pen.

What about third base, left field, DH, and possibly starting catcher?

[Sports Guy]

What about third base, left field, DH, and possibly starting catcher?

WC is essentially saying the Orioles should continue to do what they have been doing for the last 10 years.

[wildcard]

Yes, the main disagreement is you see things that aren't there.

You think we are close when we are miles away.

"Blow it up" is a sure way to be worse off than we are now.

Oh and we don't have a #2 starter either.

Fixed that for you.

Mazzone think he has a #2.

From today's Sun:

pitching coach Leo Mazzone said.
"To see your No. 1 starter and your No. 2 starter go down with side pulls... this thing has snowballed so much,"

The O's have not had the parts that they have right now in 10 years. Bedard, Guthrie, Roberts, Markakis and Tejada are a heck of a core to go forward with.

Injuries have just been very tough on this team.

[Sports Guy]

Fixed that for you.LOL....How does that sand taste?


Mazzone think he has a #2.

From today's Sun:

pitching coach Leo Mazzone said.
"To see your No. 1 starter and your No. 2 starter go down with side pulls... this thing has snowballed so much," Good for Mazzone...Take away those first 10 starts and tell me that Guthrie is a #2.


The O's have not had the parts that they have right now in 10 years. Bedard, Guthrie, Roberts, Markakis and Tejada are a heck of a core to go forward withTejada is declining some....Besides Guthrie, we had the same core this year....We added a closer(even though he was going to be a set up guy), 2 vet arms in the pen, a vet starter, Huff and a new LFer....How did that work out?

It amazes me that you even remotely continue to promote the same ideas that we have been doing. I guess you just don't care about the future of the team.

You want us to be tied into more bad contracts, lose draft picks and get older. Your plan says to try and win now and forget about the future.


Injuries have just been very tough on this team.
Injuries are apart of the game...Every team has had to endure them.

[Sports Guy]

No, Mazzone didn't say he has a #2 starter. He said his #2 starter went down. Just because a pitcher is his team's #2 starter that doesn't mean he's a #2 starter (when using the term as most tend to use it).
Every team has had injuries, so that isn't a good excuse.

As usual, good point and well said.

[scOtt]

Since Aug 1:

Bradford: 10 ER in 15 IP
Walker: 8 ER in 13.2 IP
Bell: 25 ER in 22 IP
Baez: 13 ER in 15 IP

WC....Everyone has sucked the last month or so...Open your eyes.
That was my point - everyone has sucked. And we've lost two guys for the year. I'm not talking about signing an elite closer, or even someone who will cost draft picks. Just a vet who won't be a deer in the headlights on the mound. I'm all for giving some young guys a chance, all the ones you mentioned, but not all young guys.

Even if they really do blow it up, you can't just ignore the pen. We're two bodies down and weak anyways. You have to ad at least one guy you're not afraid to put in a tough situation. If the pen blows 3 out of 4 leads, the yard will be empty by June. Attendance will drop to a million. And THAT has to be taken into consideration.

[Sports Guy]

That was my point - everyone has sucked. And we've lost two guys for the year. I'm not talking about signing an elite closer, or even someone who will cost draft picks. Just a vet who won't be a deer in the headlights on the mound. I'm all for giving some young guys a chance, all the ones you mentioned, but not all young guys.

Even if they really do blow it up, you can't just ignore the pen. We're two bodies down and weak anyways. You have to ad at least one guy you're not afraid to put in a tough situation. If the pen blows 3 out of 4 leads, the yard will be empty by June. Attendance will drop to a million. And THAT has to be taken into consideration.

We have vets...We have guys who won't have the deer in the headlights look and besides, those young guys don't get rid of that look until they actually gain REAL experience....not 10 innings.

The attendance has no shot of dropping to a million...Highly unlikely that stadium ever draws under 1.8 million. Between give away games, interleague play, Boston and NY games and OD, that is enough right there to keep us from falling under that number.

[RShack]

WC is essentially saying the Orioles should continue to do what they have been doing for the last 10 years.
I think he's saying that the O's should do a *good* job of doing what they have done a *lousy* job of doing in the past, i.e., fixing clearly known weaknesses.

[Sports Guy]

I think he's saying that the O's should do a *good* job of doing what they have done a *lousy* job of doing in the past, i.e., fixing clearly known weaknesses.

Losing picks, getting older and spending more money on bad contracts is NEVER a good idea when considering the future.

We are going to be 20-30 games out of the playoffs this year. I think people forget how awful that really is.

[wildcard]

What about third base, left field, DH, and possibly starting catcher?

Very good question.

Mora normally has a good first half and dies in the 2nd half. He had a 790 OPS in the 1st half this year. He plays good defense. I think you start the year with him. Put Moore and Jimenez at AAA and see how they do. By July you make a decision. Is Moore ready to take over 3rd or is Jimenez a ready DH and you move Huff to 3rd. All this depend on how Mora is doing and whether some kind of split time between Mora and some one else makes sense.

Huff is terrible the first two months of the season and is darn good most of the rest of the year. The O's need to add someone that can DH until June. Is that Moore. Maybe, maybe not. Moore should fight it out in Spring Training with someone else that the O's add. This does not have to be a expensive player. Phelps could have done it. Knott if he had not gotten hurt could have done it. House might be able to fill in for a couple of months. We are talking DH here, not C or LF.

Hernandez had a heck of a 2006 and has had a good RBI year this year when he has played. I don't know if the man is hurt, disinterested, out of shape or what but we know he can play better then what we are seeing. I would spend the money to sign Ramon Castro as a free agent. ( $1m-2m for a year plus an option) He is a much better backup and would be competition for PT with Hernandez. I am sure Trembley could get his point across if he had a better backup. I'd like to see 91 RBI from Hernandez again but would settle for a solid season.

Left field is wide open. Is Reimold ready? Do you resign Patterson for CF and platoon Redman and Payton. Redman hit righties. Payton hits lefties. Reimold is the future. The question is when is he ready. There are guys out there that can be gotten until he is ready if the O's feel they need to do that. Cheap guys that are not getting their chance right on. I said Ryan Spilborghs in Feb but he is probably out of reach now.

[ColumbiaOriole]

I'm amazed that anyone thinks we can add a few players and legitimately contend. In sports, injuries are inevitable so that excuse doesn't fly. We need to trade off what few valuable commodities we have, get younger and look to compete in a couple years. This makes far more sense than adding a couple more overpriced veterans, losing draft picks and hoping an unlikely convergence of circumstances occurs that somehow allows us to compete next year. It shocks me that people see what we've done the last few years and basically advocate doing more of the same. Yeah, it sucks that we've lost for a decade straight and we'd all like to see success ASAP but that's just not realistic. We are one of the worse teams in baseball. What do we have to do to convince people that we're not close? Be one of the worst teams ever?

[Sports Guy]

I'm amazed that anyone thinks we can add a few players and legitimately contend. In sports, injuries are inevitable so that excuse doesn't fly. We need to trade off what few valuable commodities we have, get younger and look to compete in a couple years. This makes far more sense than adding a couple more overpriced veterans, losing draft picks and hoping an unlikely convergence of circumstances occurs that somehow allows us to compete next year. It shocks me that people see what we've done the last few years and basically advocate doing more of the same. Yeah, it sucks that we've lost for a decade straight and we'd all like to see success ASAP but that's just not realistic. We are one of the worse teams in baseball. What do we have to do to convince people that we're not close? Be one of the worst teams ever?

Excellent post.

It truly is amazing.....Do more of the same, it has worked well so far! :rolleyes:

[wildcard]

No, Mazzone didn't say he has a #2 starter. He said his #2 starter went down. Just because a pitcher is his team's #2 starter that doesn't mean he's a #2 starter (when using the term as most tend to use it).

Every team has had injuries, so that isn't a good excuse.

I would like to thank you and SG for crawling into Mazzone's brain and figuring out what he meant instead of what he said. It is amazing to think that you can just ignore what he said and just make it up as you go along.

[RShack]

It shocks me that people see what we've done the last few years and basically advocate doing more of the same.
I have never once seen anyone advocate that. I have never seen anyone say that the O's should fail to fix known problems and instead give away draft picks so they can overpay for mediocre veterans. Nobody but nobody wants more of the same.

The idea of writing off two or three seasons to concentrate on assembling unproven prospects is a coherent philosophy. I don't think it's a good one, but it is a coherent one. However, there is nothing worthwhile in pretending that those who don't agree with it are somehow in favor of failure. That's W-logic. It is both wrong-thinking and unfair to some of your fellow-posters. Whatever rationale is behind the approach you favor, diss'ing those who don't agree is not part of it.

[ColumbiaOriole]

I would like to thank you and SG for crawling into Mazzone's brain and figuring out what he meant instead of what he said. It is amazing to think that you can just ignore what he said and just make it up as you go along.

I think it's a little hypocritical that they should accept your interpretation of what he said while you completely disregard theirs which in my opinion is more grounded in reality. He said HIS #2 starter went down meaning the Orioles second best starter was injured. I don't see how you interpret that as meaning he believes Guthrie is a legit #2 although he may feel that way. I hope Guthrie is a #2 we can count on for years and he very well may prove that but to assume that to be the case doesn't make much sense.

[wildcard]

It amazes me that you even remotely continue to promote the same ideas that we have been doing. I guess you just don't care about the future of the team.

You want us to be tied into more bad contracts, lose draft picks and get older. Your plan says to try and win now and forget about the future.


Injuries are apart of the game...Every team has had to endure them.

SG, sometimes you are so full of junk. (nicest word I could think of) If I don't believe what you believe then I am for burying the O's according to you. That is just not so.

I have not said one word about giving away draft choices. Matter of fact, in another post I said that I though that keeping draft choices would be one of McPhail highest priorities. And I agree with that approach.

Nothing I am proposing would be a big contract or cost draft choices. Let's wait for the ratings of the players to be announced after the season and see who does not cost draft choices.

[weams]

Excellent post.

It truly is amazing.....Do more of the same, it has worked well so far! :rolleyes:

Trade Tejada. Trade Roberts. Trade Ramon.

That's a start.

[ColumbiaOriole]

SG, sometimes you are so full of junk. (nicest word I could think of) If I don't believe what you believe then I am for burying the O's according to you. That is just not so.

I have not said one word about giving away draft choices. Matter of fact, in another post I said that I though that keeping draft choices would be one of McPhail highest priorities. And I agree with that approach.

Nothing I am proposing would be a big contract or cost draft choices. Let's wait for the ratings of the players to be announced after the season and see who does not cost draft choices.

Fair enough, how do you plan on acquiring the six players you said we need in your earlier post while actually upgrading our talent level and hopefully getting younger?

[Sports Guy]

SG, sometimes you are so full of junk. (nicest word I could think of) If I don't believe what you believe then I am for burying the O's according to you. That is just not so.

I have not said one word about giving away draft choices. Matter of fact, in another post I said that I though that keeping draft choices would be one of McPhail highest priorities. And I agree with that approach.

Nothing I am proposing would be a big contract or cost draft choices. Let's wait for the ratings of the players to be announced after the season and see who does not cost draft choices.

WC...You won't be able to sign a bunch of FAs without losing some kind of draft pick(s).

And you say to sign a closer...That will cost you a big contract...You have talked about a big bat..That will cost you a big contract.

These things cost you money and draft picks...You don't have to say these things, they are obvious. They are the "hidden part" of your plan, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

[TonySoprano]

LOL....How does that sand taste?

Good for Mazzone...Take away those first 10 starts and tell me that Guthrie is a #2.If you want to play that game, take away the last 10 and tell me what you have...

[Sports Guy]

Trade Tejada. Trade Roberts. Trade Ramon.

That's a start.

Ramon doesn't have any value right now in all likelihood...You have to keep him for now.

[Sports Guy]

If you want to play that game, take away the last 10 and tell me what you have...

A guy with a mediocre MiL career who is 28 years old and had 10 flukish starts.

[wildcard]

I think it's a little hypocritical that they should accept your interpretation of what he said while you completely disregard theirs which in my opinion is more grounded in reality. He said HIS #2 starter went down meaning the Orioles second best starter was injured. I don't see how you interpret that as meaning he believes Guthrie is a legit #2 although he may feel that way. I hope Guthrie is a #2 we can count on for years and he very well may prove that but to assume that to be the case doesn't make much sense.

OK, I re-read it from your point of view. I see your point. The "your" is speaking about Mazzone's #2.

Sorry, SG and 1970. I didn't think of it in the right way.

[Moose Milligan]

I smell another disaster. I don't even have to wait for the offseason to play itself out.

This smells like a babies diaper already.

[bgtimber75]

I love it. Let's sign a few pieces to get us to .500 in a couple of years when the pieces we're building around will be gone. Seems like a great way to build a team to me.

[wildcard]

WC...You won't be able to sign a bunch of FAs without losing some kind of draft pick(s).

And you say to sign a closer...That will cost you a big contract...You have talked about a big bat..That will cost you a big contract.

These things cost you money and draft picks...You don't have to say these things, they are obvious. They are the "hidden part" of your plan, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

Not sure of everything yet. I will involve some trades.
DCab probably. I need to see who doesn't not require draft choices. Last year Embree did not cost one. Add Ramon Castro as #2 catcher to push Hernandez could help. Reimold in LF maybe, depending on ST. Spilboughs would have been available for left last winter. Could have gotten him for a song. Just have to find more guys like that.

Moore at 3rd, Riemold in left are future moves but they have to be done at the right time, when they are ready. Hoey will be a big part of the pen at some point but a veteran or two could be a good buffer.

It is not even the off season yet. Not all these answers are clear yet. But they will be out there. When we see who is available. The O's have the stars all ready. The Roberts, Bedard, Guthrie, Markakis and Tejada's are here. The O's need a good, deep supporting team. That is what the winter should be about. Finding those guys to full the holes and add the depth.

[Sports Guy]

Last year Embree did not cost one. Alan Embree is the perfect example of why you don't piss money away on relievers like we did. He had 3 straight years with an ERA over 4, inlcuding his ERA being over 7 in 2005...Last year, in the NL and in a great pitchers park, he had a solid ERA. This year, he has been decent but not great in Oakland...However, someone will see 17 saves and be dumbe nough to give him a good 2-3 year contract. Guys like Embree are a dime a dozen.
Add Ramon Castro as #2 catcher to push Hernandez could helpHouse should be the #2 catcher but i have no problem adding a real #2 catcher but Castro is not going to come here to be a #2 after having the year he is having...The Mets aren't going to resign LoDuca, so Castro may start there next year.
Reimold in LF maybe, depending on ST. Spilboughs would have been available for left last winter. Could have gotten him for a song. Just have to find more guys like that. We do find guys like this...We don't play them.


Moore at 3rd, Riemold in left are future moves but they have to be done at the right time, when they are ready. Hoey will be a big part of the pen at some point but a veteran or two could be a good buffer.

A lot of your plan is to play the young kids and sure up a few problem areas...While this is all well and good, this keeps us as a 500 level team with a poor future.

It just doesn't make sense.

It is what we have been doing...How can you not see this?

[bgtimber75]

The Roberts, Bedard, Guthrie, Markakis and Tejada's are here. The O's need a good, deep supporting team. That is what the winter should be about. Finding those guys to full the holes and add the depth.

Tejada is doing nothing but getting older and worse defensively. And who's to say that Guthrie won't be another Jose Mercedes/Calvin Maduro/Bruce Chen one year wonder?

How can you advocate building around Tejada? Next year at best is another strive for .500 so you're looking at Tejada to still be a stud in 2009/2010?

[Sports Guy]

Tejada is doing nothing but getting older and worse defensively. And who's to say that Guthrie won't be another Jose Mercedes/Calvin Maduro/Bruce Chen one year wonder?

How can you advocate building around Tejada? Next year at best is another strive for .500 so you're looking at Tejada to still be a stud in 2009/2010?

This seems to be the problem people are having.

This team will look totally different after 2009...These guys will be gone. So, that being the case, do you think we can contend the next 2 years?

If you don't, then you trade these guys....And really, how can you think we will contend?

[wildcard]

I love it. Let's sign a few pieces to get us to .500 in a couple of years when the pieces we're building around will be gone. Seems like a great way to build a team to me.

Ask yourself a question. What is a team build around? If you could build a team around a few core players, what would you start with?

How about a #1 pitcher? A leadoff guy? Two 100 RBI guys? A rookie that has shown the stuff to be a #2?

Now think of a supporting cast. How about a catcher that had 91 RBI last year and with a great arm? How about a DH that gives you 4 months at an 850 OPS but needs to be supplemented at the being of the season?

A bunch of guys that could mature fast like Hoey, Olson, Penn, Reimold. And a guy who has a 96-98 mph fastball, who is showing rapid progress, though he is not ready yet.

Blow it up? Because we traded our best August pitcher for guys that might help in the future. Because 60% of the starting rotation is on the DL. Think of what this team was in mid August before Texas came in. Now think what that team needed to be a contender.

The past month has been hard on everyone, but there are reasons we are where we are. Injuries, trade of veterans are two. Look at what this team is with Bedard, Guthrie and Loewen at the top of the rotation.

I just don't think trading Bedard, Roberts and the rest of the veterans does anything for this team. It is just saying I am feed up with what has been happening. It is not a solution. Blow it up, says I am willing be bet on unproven talent and am ok with two maybe three years of worst losing then what we have seen. I look at were the best chance to become a contender is and I don't see trading Robert and Bedard in that plan.

[square634]

Ask yourself a question. What is a team build around? If you could build a team around a few core players, what would you start with?

How about a #1 pitcher? A leadoff guy? Two 100 RBI guys? A rookie that has shown the stuff to be a #2?

Now think of a supporting cast. How about a catcher that had 91 RBI last year and with a great arm? How about a DH that gives you 4 months at an 850 OPS but needs to be supplemented at the being of the season?

A bunch of guys that could mature fast like Hoey, Olson, Penn, Reimold. And a guy who has a 96-98 mph fastball, who is showing rapid progress, though he is not ready yet.

Blow it up? Because we traded our best August pitcher for guys that might help in the future. Because 60% of the starting rotation is on the DL. Think of what this team was in mid August before Texas came in. Now think what that team needed to be a contender.

The past month has been hard on everyone, but there are reasons we are where we are. Injuries, trade of veterans are two. Look at what this team is with Bedard, Guthrie and Loewen at the top of the rotation.

I just don't think trading Bedard, Roberts and the rest of the veterans does anything for this team. It is just saying I am feed up with what has been happening. It is not a solution. Blow it up, says I am willing be bet on unproven talent and am ok with two maybe three years of worst losing then what we have seen. I look at were the best chance to become a contender is and I don't see trading Robert and Bedard in that plan.

There have been few teams who have ever lost worse than what we have seen. Right now we are closing in on the worst record in the major leagues. We have gotten worse by 4 games every year since 2003, and it looks like we will be right around 66 wins this year. That doesn't sound like a team with a solid core to me. So if the worst case is we have the worst record in ML next year with 5 more losses than this year, so be it.

[weams]

I smell another disaster. I don't even have to wait for the offseason to play itself out.

This smells like a babies diaper already.

We are much smarter than that, like a rocket scientist (astronaut) :D

[bgtimber75]

Wouda, couda, shouda. A guy that was good LAST season. A guy that SHOULD have 100 RBI's. A guy that WOULD be good if he played for the first 2 months of the season. Players that have shown nothing this season that COULD mature fast.

Yeah, seems like the perfect people to build around.

[Sports Guy]

Ask yourself a question. What is a team build around? If you could build a team around a few core players, what would you start with?

How about a #1 pitcher? A leadoff guy? Two 100 RBI guys? A rookie that has shown the stuff to be a #2?

Now think of a supporting cast. How about a catcher that had 91 RBI last year and with a great arm? How about a DH that gives you 4 months at an 850 OPS but needs to be supplemented at the being of the season?

A bunch of guys that could mature fast like Hoey, Olson, Penn, Reimold. And a guy who has a 96-98 mph fastball, who is showing rapid progress, though he is not ready yet.

Blow it up? Because we traded our best August pitcher for guys that might help in the future. Because 60% of the starting rotation is on the DL. Think of what this team was in mid August before Texas came in. Now think what that team needed to be a contender.
The past month has been hard on everyone, but there are reasons we are where we are. Injuries, trade of veterans are two. Look at what this team is with Bedard, Guthrie and Loewen at the top of the rotation.

I just don't think trading Bedard, Roberts and the rest of the veterans does anything for this team. It is just saying I am feed up with what has been happening. It is not a solution. Blow it up, says I am willing be bet on unproven talent and am ok with two maybe three years of worst losing then what we have seen. I look at were the best chance to become a contender is and I don't see trading Robert and Bedard in that plan.
This is just incredible.

All i can say is i hope the Orioles don't think like you because if they do, we are done for another 3-5 years.

[wildcard]

And who's to say that Guthrie won't be another Jose Mercedes/Calvin Maduro/Bruce Chen one year wonder?

You could say that about anyone you propose to bring in the 'Blow it up" plan. You want guarantees. There are none.


How can you advocate building around Tejada? Next year at best is another strive for .500 so you're looking at Tejada to still be a stud in 2009/2010?

I stick with Tejada for one reason. I have not seen a logical proposal to replace him. Not one trade that makes any sense. He is a hard guy to trade and get equal value for. Just think what was on the table last year. Santana and Aybar. Yuk

[bgtimber75]

You could say that about anyone you propose to bring in the 'Blow it up" plan. You want guarantees. There are none.





No there is on guarantee. Age. Tejada isn't getting younger. Mora isn't getting younger. Huff isn't getting younger. Millar isn't getting younger. You're advocating building around aging stars and for a team with our financial restraints I just don't see how that's a good idea.


I stick with Tejada for one reason. I have not seen a logical proposal to replace him. Not one trade that makes any sense. He is a hard guy to trade and get equal value for. Just think what was on the table last year. Santana and Aybar. Yuk

And we'll get even less for him next year and the year after.

[wildcard]

No there is on guarantee. Age. Tejada isn't getting younger. Mora isn't getting younger. Huff isn't getting younger. Millar isn't getting younger. You're advocating building around aging stars and for a team with our financial restraints I just don't see how that's a good idea.

No, build around Bedard, Markakis, Roberts, and Guthrie.

[bgtimber75]

No, build around Bedard, Markakis, Roberts, and Guthrie.

You're rebuilding players are getting much thiner now.

I have no problem rebuilding around the players you mention (save for maybe Roberts) but to build around them we need pieces. The only way to get those pieces involves trading off players such as Tejada.

I haven't seen one person suggest trading Markakis. Most want Bedard extended and if not kept around until at least next July. Guthrie I have absolutely no problem keeping as he cost nothing and is still a young guy.

[Sports Guy]

No, build around Bedard, Markakis, Roberts, and Guthrie.

You do know that Bedard and BRob may be gone in 2 years right?

You are also aware that for more than half of his starts this year, that Guthrie has been a 4/5 starter and his minor league career suggests that is best case scenario, right?

[TonySoprano]

You are also aware that for more than half of his starts this year, that Guthrie has been a 4/5 starter and his minor league career suggests that is best case scenario, right?You do know you're wrong, don't you? In fourteen out of twenty-five starts, he pitched to an ERA of 3.0 or less for the game. His ERA was less than 4.00 in sixteen starts.

[Sports Guy]

You do know you're wrong, don't you? In fourteen out of twenty-five starts, he pitched to an ERA of 3.0 or less for the game. His ERA was less than 4.00 in sixteen starts.

Good point...Should have said his second half of the season.

Of course, we said the same thing about Rodrigo a few years ago.

[TonySoprano]

Good point...Should have said his second half of the season.

Of course, we said the same thing about Rodrigo a few years ago. In his first twelve starts, Guthrie had an ERA of 1.936. He followed that with an ERA of 4.95 in his last thirteen starts. So far so good for SG, right? Not so fast. He had three really bad starts (Jul 12, Aug 8, Aug 13) which significantly inflated the numbers for the "second half." Take away those three starts, and his "second half" ERA was 3.66. Furthermore, in his other twenty-two starts, not including those three, Guthrie pitched to an ERA of 2.68. That's some fluke season alright:rolleyes:

[mweb]

I would like to thank you and SG for crawling into Mazzone's brain and figuring out what he meant instead of what he said. It is amazing to think that you can just ignore what he said and just make it up as you go along.

I think it's pretty clear what Mazzone is saying, and it's not what you're trying to make it out to be. Who knows though, you rip them for crawling into his brain, but you did the same thing, and now I am too.:D

But regardless of that, look at what Guthrie has done after the great start, can you honestly say we have a #2 starter for next year?

We always seem to expect most or everyone on the team to be as good or better than their past results, but every year guys underperform expectations. We need a team good enough to contend even if a few key guys tank. It would be very difficult to accomplish that.

[wildcard]

I think it's pretty clear what Mazzone is saying, and it's not what you're trying to make it out to be. Who knows though, you rip them for crawling into his brain, but you did the same thing, and now I am too.:D

But regardless of that, look at what Guthrie has done after the great start, can you honestly say we have a #2 starter for next year?

We always seem to expect most or everyone on the team to be as good or better than their past results, but every year guys underperform expectations. We need a team good enough to contend even if a few key guys tank. It would be very difficult to accomplish that.


Yea, I already said I messed up on the Mazzone quote. Guess I will have to put it in blood.

Guthrie has the stuff, and background to repeat. I know it took him a little while in the minors to get it, but he did get. This is the second year in a row he has done well.

As far as the O's getting more depth, I have always be for that. That is what "finish the job" means in my signature. They do seem to have some more young guys with talent on the roster. Now if their will just take their success in the minors and make it work for them in the majors.

[Sports Guy]

In his first twelve starts, Guthrie had an ERA of 1.936. He followed that with an ERA of 4.95 in his last thirteen starts. So far so good for SG, right? Not so fast. He had three really bad starts (Jul 12, Aug 8, Aug 13) which significantly inflated the numbers for the "second half." Take away those three starts, and his "second half" ERA was 3.66. Furthermore, in his other twenty-two starts, not including those three, Guthrie pitched to an ERA of 2.68. That's some fluke season alright:rolleyes:
Tony..>Everytime you do this, all you do is focus on his ERA.

If you haven't guessed by now, i focus a lot more than just that...The HR rate, gb/fb ratio, command rate and rising BB rate is a much bigger key than his ERA.

However, over 14 starts, his ERA was still almost 5...You can pick and choose whatever you want.

[mweb]

Yea, I already said I messed up on the Mazzone quote. Guess I will have to put it in blood.

Guthrie has the stuff, and background to repeat. I know it took him a little while in the minors to get it, but he did get. This is the second year in a row he has done well.

As far as the O's getting more depth, I have always be for that. That is what "finish the job" means in my signature. They do seem to have some more young guys with talent on the roster. Now if their will just take their success in the minors and make it work for them in the majors.

Some people respond to posts before finishing reading the thread, I would be one of them.

Guthrie has a 5.00 ERA since the AS break. I think he can be solid, but I really don't understand how anyone can count on the guy to be a #2 caliber starter.

I'm not really talking about more depth, I'm talking about getting as much talent as the Sox and Yanks have, because without that, we're put in a situation where we need almost everyone to match or exceed expectations. We're very far from achieving that. Those teams have had their share of injuries and disappointments as well, but they're still leaps and bounds better than us.

[TonySoprano]

Tony..>Everytime you do this, all you do is focus on his ERA.

If you haven't guessed by now, i focus a lot more than just that...The HR rate, gb/fb ratio, command rate and rising BB rate is a much bigger key than his ERA.

However, over 14 starts, his ERA was still almost 5...You can pick and choose whatever you want.I'll stick with my numbers over 22 starts out of 25 (that's 88%); you choose 14.

[Goop]

"You have to know how long you'll be without if at all," MacPhail said. [B]"But clearly, the bullpen is an area that is going to require attention in the offseason, either way."


Who besides Bradford and Walker can you pencil into the 2008 pen right now and hope to be somewhat decent? MAzzone hit the nail on the head in saying guys are showing us why they shouldn't be here.

Well that's good to hear.

[NoVaO]

Tony..>Everytime you do this, all you do is focus on his ERA.

If you haven't guessed by now, i focus a lot more than just that...The HR rate, gb/fb ratio, command rate and rising BB rate is a much bigger key than his ERA.

However, over 14 starts, his ERA was still almost 5...You can pick and choose whatever you want.

It still seems like you are completely disregarding his excellent start.

Either way, his K:BB rate after July 1st was 1.87. K rate was 6.69, BB rate was 3.39. Even if you don't want to include his first half, that is still a pretty solid rate, around league average. His HR rate was 1.85. Whether that is a sign of things to come is debateable, but I tend to think he is pretty unlucky in this instance. Here's why:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2007_3961&type=pitcher

The link basically tells you where his homers were hit, how far, and the effects the weather had on the ball hit. I see that 8 of the 21 homeruns hit off him were classified as "just enough" to get out of the park. That means it cleared the fences by less than 10 vertical feet or it landed just barely past the fence. Of those 8, 5 of those homeruns were classified as lucky in that they would not have been homeruns if played in neutral weather. 4 of those were as a starter.

Looking at his GB:FB ratio further, he only ended up a little lower than he should of been since the GB:FB ratio in the minors is around was around 2 in 06, but around 1.3 in 05. He should have had a ratio a little better than league average and he ended up a little below.

Still, is it dangerous expecting this guy to come in next year at as a #2 starter? Yes. However, I don't think its a stretch at all to say that we can rely on him to be a good starter for us next year, whether he is a #4 or 3 or 2.

[Sports Guy]

It still seems like you are completely disregarding his excellent start.

Either way, his K:BB rate after July 1st was 1.87. K rate was 6.69, BB rate was 3.39. Even if you don't want to include his first half, that is still a pretty solid rate, around league average. His HR rate was 1.85. Whether that is a sign of things to come is debateable, but I tend to think he is pretty unlucky in this instance. Here's why:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2007_3961&type=pitcher

The link basically tells you where his homers were hit, how far, and the effects the weather had on the ball hit. I see that 8 of the 21 homeruns hit off him were classified as "just enough" to get out of the park. That means it cleared the fences by less than 10 vertical feet or it landed just barely past the fence. Of those 8, 5 of those homeruns were classified as lucky in that they would not have been homeruns if played in neutral weather. 4 of those were as a starter.

Looking at his GB:FB ratio further, he only ended up a little lower than he should of been since the GB:FB ratio in the minors is around was around 2 in 06, but around 1.3 in 05. He should have had a ratio a little better than league average and he ended up a little below.

Still, is it dangerous expecting this guy to come in next year at as a #2 starter? Yes. However, I don't think its a stretch at all to say that we can rely on him to be a good starter for us next year, whether he is a #4 or 3 or 2.


Yes, i am disregarding his start...His BABIP was/is very low...His LOB% was/is also lucky. Plus, that 10 start stretch was unlike anything he has done in his career.

His GB/FB ratio, over his last 14 starts, was worse than 1:1.

I do agree that his HR rate in his last 14 starts is flukish...He isn't going to give up close to 2 homers every 9 IP...That being said, it was also artificially low in the first 10 games, so it was kind of evening out.

If/when he has an average LOB% and BABIP, i think his stats go up even more.

Frobby pointed out something to me the other day that i think he was dead on about....I am giving pitchers too much credit...A 4.8-5 ERA is acceptable for a 4/5 starter...So maybe, Guthrie can be a back of the rotation guy but he is no more than that IMO.

BTW, this weather stuff and whatnot seems bs to me....Bottom line is he let up a lot more ground balls in the second half and he paid the consequences.

Bottom line is he is pitching in Baltimore, at OPACY in the summer...The ball will travel...He needs to not throw so many fly balls...If he does, he will continue to give up a ton of homers.

[Frobby]

No, Mazzone didn't say he has a #2 starter. He said his #2 starter went down. Just because a pitcher is his team's #2 starter that doesn't mean he's a #2 starter (when using the term as most tend to use it).

Every team has had injuries, so that isn't a good excuse.

Guthrie may not be a no. 2 starter going forward, but for purposes of 2007 he certainly qualified. 13th in ERA, 9th in WHIP, 11th in percentage of quality starts. That's easily a no. 2 starter.

[Sports Guy]

Guthrie may not be a no. 2 starter going forward, but for purposes of 2007 he certainly qualified. 13th in ERA, 9th in WHIP, 11th in percentage of quality starts. That's easily a no. 2 starter.

Can't argue with this Frobby.

[Frobby]

Let me say categorically that we should not sign any veteran relievers who cost draft picks. I don't mind signing a couple of decent veteran guys to 1-2 year deals, but draft picks are a no-no.

[wildcard]

Let me say categorically that we should not sign any veteran relievers who cost draft picks. I don't mind signing a couple of decent veteran guys to 1-2 year deals, but draft picks are a no-no.

I think you can extend that to any player. If a guy in not worth a 4 year contract, he is not worth a draft choice IMO. There are other ways to get players.

[Frobby]

I think you can extend that to any player. If a guy in not worth a 4 year contract, he is not worth a draft choice IMO. There are other ways to get players.

I agree with you here.

[utvolzac]

SG, sometimes you are so full of junk. (nicest word I could think of) If I don't believe what you believe then I am for burying the O's according to you. That is just not so.

I have not said one word about giving away draft choices. Matter of fact, in another post I said that I though that keeping draft choices would be one of McPhail highest priorities. And I agree with that approach.

Nothing I am proposing would be a big contract or cost draft choices. Let's wait for the ratings of the players to be announced after the season and see who does not cost draft choices.

So in this plan to sign 6 guys, w/o giving up draft picks or giving out bad contracts, how exactly does that turn us into a contender?

Sounds like you just described the types of league average free agent stop gap players that have drug this franchise into the ground.

Your real choices are this...Long term or short term. Go full blown, all out, money/future be damned and try to win with your current core group by 2009 and spend, spend, spend and fix the holes with good solutions, not stop gaps. Try and win now. We'll call this Quick Fix. In the process, the farm system takes a major hit because to get those elite free agents, you lose draft picks. You could supplement the farm system by signing the better latin american prospects, but that will require even more money.

or the Blow It Up scenario. Trade away what valuable parts we have left and stockpile young major league ready or close to talent and build a new core group. We probably won't win right out of the gates, but at least we'd be replacing our aging core group to build around with younger players with potential.

I don't see any other alternative to the situation the O's are in. They've pissed away too many off-seasons with stop gaps trying to get to .500. Now they only have two seasons left until half our team might leave via Free Agency. We cannot continue to have these throw away seasons like the last few where we're stuck in neutral and not making progress in either direction.

[Sports Guy]

So in this plan to sign 6 guys, w/o giving up draft picks or giving out bad contracts, how exactly does that turn us into a contender?

Sounds like you just described the types of league average free agent stop gap players that have drug this franchise into the ground.

Your real choices are this...Long term or short term. Go full blown, all out, money/future be damned and try to win with your current core group by 2009 and spend, spend, spend and fix the holes with good solutions, not stop gaps. Try and win now. We'll call this Quick Fix. In the process, the farm system takes a major hit because to get those elite free agents, you lose draft picks. You could supplement the farm system by signing the better latin american prospects, but that will require even more money.

or the Blow It Up scenario. Trade away what valuable parts we have left and stockpile young major league ready or close to talent and build a new core group. We probably won't win right out of the gates, but at least we'd be replacing our aging core group to build around with younger players with potential.

I don't see any other alternative to the situation the O's are in. They've pissed away too many off-seasons with stop gaps trying to get to .500. Now they only have two seasons left until half our team might leave via Free Agency. We cannot continue to have these throw away seasons like the last few where we're stuck in neutral and not making progress in either direction.
I will be looking forward to seeing any attempt at a logical argument against this post.

[wildcard]

So in this plan to sign 6 guys, w/o giving up draft picks or giving out bad contracts, how exactly does that turn us into a contender?

Sounds like you just described the types of league average free agent stop gap players that have drug this franchise into the ground.

Your real choices are this...Long term or short term. Go full blown, all out, money/future be damned and try to win with your current core group by 2009 and spend, spend, spend and fix the holes with good solutions, not stop gaps. Try and win now. We'll call this Quick Fix. In the process, the farm system takes a major hit because to get those elite free agents, you lose draft picks. You could supplement the farm system by signing the better latin american prospects, but that will require even more money.

or the Blow It Up scenario. Trade away what valuable parts we have left and stockpile young major league ready or close to talent and build a new core group. We probably won't win right out of the gates, but at least we'd be replacing our aging core group to build around with younger players with potential.

I don't see any other alternative to the situation the O's are in. They've pissed away too many off-seasons with stop gaps trying to get to .500. Now they only have two seasons left until half our team might leave via Free Agency. We cannot continue to have these throw away seasons like the last few where we're stuck in neutral and not making progress in either direction.

No, there is something between Blow it up and spend wildly that can make this team successful. And I think McPhail may know how to make a smart trade. Fill a gap until the kids are ready.

We need to know who costs draft choices. Did Jose Guillen cost a draft choice last year? I don't remember.

Does any one know where to get last years winter player rating and classifications? A B C level players?

[mweb]

So in this plan to sign 6 guys, w/o giving up draft picks or giving out bad contracts, how exactly does that turn us into a contender?

Sounds like you just described the types of league average free agent stop gap players that have drug this franchise into the ground.

Your real choices are this...Long term or short term. Go full blown, all out, money/future be damned and try to win with your current core group by 2009 and spend, spend, spend and fix the holes with good solutions, not stop gaps. Try and win now. We'll call this Quick Fix. In the process, the farm system takes a major hit because to get those elite free agents, you lose draft picks. You could supplement the farm system by signing the better latin american prospects, but that will require even more money.

or the Blow It Up scenario. Trade away what valuable parts we have left and stockpile young major league ready or close to talent and build a new core group. We probably won't win right out of the gates, but at least we'd be replacing our aging core group to build around with younger players with potential.

I don't see any other alternative to the situation the O's are in. They've pissed away too many off-seasons with stop gaps trying to get to .500. Now they only have two seasons left until half our team might leave via Free Agency. We cannot continue to have these throw away seasons like the last few where we're stuck in neutral and not making progress in either direction.

Yep, I've been saying this for awhile, either go all out to win now, or seriously rebuild, nothing in between. I'd prefer to rebuild, but if they're able to put together a real contender without trading away top young talent, that be great. I just don't see that being very realistic unless we can somehow get Arod as the main addition.

[NoVaO]

Yes, i am disregarding his start...His BABIP was/is very low...His LOB% was/is also lucky. Plus, that 10 start stretch was unlike anything he has done in his career.

I don't see how you completely disregard his start. The BABIP and LOB% were evident in his 1.73 ERA. His fielding independent stats were still in the 2's. It was a combination of luck and skill on Guthrie's part.


His GB/FB ratio, over his last 14 starts, was worse than 1:1.

The ratio balanced itself out over the course of the season. It ended up a little lower than you would project for him, but its not too concerning.


I do agree that his HR rate in his last 14 starts is flukish...He isn't going to give up close to 2 homers every 9 IP...That being said, it was also artificially low in the first 10 games, so it was kind of evening out.

He still ended up with a HR:FB rate that was a little unlucky.


If/when he has an average LOB% and BABIP, i think his stats go up even more.

I'm not sure if you mean when he has an average LOB% and BABIP, his homeruns, Ks, and BB/9 will get worse...but his ERA will obviously get worse.


Frobby pointed out something to me the other day that i think he was dead on about....I am giving pitchers too much credit...A 4.8-5 ERA is acceptable for a 4/5 starter...So maybe, Guthrie can be a back of the rotation guy but he is no more than that IMO.

A 4.8-5 ERA I think is near the low end of the projection scale. I think he is between a 4.2-4.5...


BTW, this weather stuff and whatnot seems bs to me...Bottom line is he is pitching in Baltimore, at OPACY in the summer...The ball will travel.

Camden Yards plays as a pretty neutral park. The temperature in the summer seems to add only a few feet. The wind sometimes kills balls in the OF but for the most plays neutral. I don't think its bs at all...its essentially normalizing the weather.

The part to focus on is how many of HRs barely left the ball park.


Bottom line is he let up a lot more ground balls in the second half and he paid the consequences. He needs to not throw so many fly balls...If he does, he will continue to give up a ton of homers.

His HR:FB rate in the second half of the season was 15.5%. 5 of those homers were on balls that barely cleared the fences.

So while keeping the ball on the ground will limit his homers, he was still unlucky in how many fly balls became HRs. His BABIP was around .320 for the second half. I know part of this was simply his stats balancing themselves out, but if we are judging his ERA of 5 for the second half, it should be pointed out how that ERA was achieved. I can't find his LOB% for the second half, but I know it lowered gradually as the year went on.

Thats why a prediction somewhere between the 5 he put up in the second half of the year and the 3.7 ERA he put up as a starter this year is a good mid-range selection. Its an inexact science...either way, I think its pretty safe to rely on him being a solid member of our rotation.

[Hallas]

I don't recall saying otherwise.

I've gone on record as saying I have a higher opinion of his future than does SG. I've gone on record as saying he can be a middle of the rotation starter on an average team and a back end of the rotation starter on a good one.

He needs to at least maintain his K-Rate without an increase in his BB-Rate and improve upon his GB%. If he can do those things I'll feel a lot better about his future. If he can't, then I can see a Rodrigo Lopez career pattern in his future (and that isn't necessarily a bad thing).

Rodrigo Lopez with a better attitude is certainly a pitcher I could live with as a #2 or #3 pitcher.

Here's a q though - since FB pitchers allow fewer hits on balls in play, and he doesn't really walk a whole lot of people, is it that important for him to improve his GB% significantly? It's not like he's an extreme flyball pitcher, and if the Ks and BBs stay the same he'll be allowing mostly solo shots and it won't hurt his overall performance too much. I'm of course making the assumption that the rest of his peripherals stay the same. Bruce Chen comes to mind as a recent extreme flyball pitcher that flashed in the pan for us, but his walk rate was much worse than Guthrie's.

[utvolzac]

No, there is something between Blow it up and spend wildly that can make this team successful. And I think McPhail may know how to make a smart trade. Fill a gap until the kids are ready.

We need to know who costs draft choices. Did Jose Guillen cost a draft choice last year? I don't remember.

Does any one know where to get last years winter player rating and classifications? A B C level players?

I could not disagree more, this team is miles away from being an actual contender. The types of players it would take to turn this franchise around aren't going to be the type of guys you can get w/o giving up draft picks or spending a ridiculous amount of money.

Filling gaps until kids are ready is not even an option at this point. Haven't we done that the last two seasons. Besides that what impact "kids" would they be holding down the fort for? Rowell, Snyder, Erbe? By the time they get here half our roster will be gone. Wieters is the only prospect in our system that has impact potential and he hasn't even picked up a wood back yet. Reimold looks to be the only position player close to making the jump, but I don't see him as much of a superstar prospect like Markakis, more along the lines of a good major league player, but not a guy you build the franchise around.

[bgtimber75]

I could not disagree more, this team is miles away from being an actual contender. The types of players it would take to turn this franchise around aren't going to be the type of guys you can get w/o giving up draft picks or spending a ridiculous amount of money.


How anyone could look at not only this years record, but there trending record, and disagree with this is beyond me. This is not a good team. There is no power, no pitching and few prospects. It's not a good team.

[wildcard]

I could not disagree more, this team is miles away from being an actual contender. The types of players it would take to turn this franchise around aren't going to be the type of guys you can get w/o giving up draft picks or spending a ridiculous amount of money.

Filling gaps until kids are ready is not even an option at this point. Haven't we done that the last two seasons. Besides that what impact "kids" would they be holding down the fort for? Rowell, Snyder, Erbe? By the time they get here half our roster will be gone. Wieters is the only prospect in our system that has impact potential and he hasn't even picked up a wood back yet. Reimold looks to be the only position player close to making the jump, but I don't see him as much of a superstar prospect like Markakis, more along the lines of a good major league player, but not a guy you build the franchise around.

This team already has the star players. What it lacks is those good players that you just talked about. Roberts, Markakis, Tejada, Bedard are stars. Guthrie has shown the stuff to become one, though there are doubters out there.

If Reimold can hold down LF come July will a 750 OPS and become an 800 OPS guy in the future he should have a that chance.

Moore is a #1 draft choice. From what I have seen so far he looks to have decent range and hands at third. He has some power and a good sense of how to drive in an RBI. He is below average in getting consistent hits. I think he gets a chance in ST, but is more likely to need half a season at AAA. The PCL is not the International League in my opinion.

Penn, Olson, Liz, Hoey are all guys that should progress to the majors sometime next year and should have a bright future. Some of them should be good players you can count on. Next year we find out who is ready to step forward and when they are ready. The all have options that can be used.

There may be a surprise among Leicester, Burres, and Fernando Cabrera. Maybe one of them can turn into a solid pitcher that contributes.

They are all young enough that they might need time before they step up. They may need time to grew. A few veterans could help to start the season. They do not have to be stars. Let's see what is out there that could help.

[osfan83]

This team already has the star players. What it lacks is those good players that you just talked about. Roberts, Markakis, Tejada, Bedard are stars. Guthrie has shown the stuff to become one, though there are doubters out there.

If Reimold can hold down LF come July will a 750 OPS and become an 800 OPS guy in the future he should have a that chance.

Moore is a #1 draft choice. From what I have seen so far he looks to have decent range and hands at third. He has some power and a good sense of how to drive in an RBI. He is below average in getting consistent hits. I think he gets a chance in ST, but is more likely to need half a season at AAA. The PCL is not the International League in my opinion.

Penn, Olson, Liz, Hoey are all guys that should progress to the majors sometime next year and should have a bright future. Some of them should be good players you can count on. Next year we find out who is ready to step forward and when they are ready. The all have options that can be used.

There may be a surprise among Leicester, Burres, and Fernando Cabrera. Maybe one of them can turn into a solid pitcher that contributes.

They are all young enough that they might need time before they step up. They may need time to grew. A few veterans could help to start the season. They do not have to be stars. Let's see what is out there that could help.

Wow! It's not even the off season yet and we are already seeing posts like this! I think you throw around the word STARS a bit more than I would. Roberts, maybe when playing his best. Tejada, was a star, maybe again in the future. Markakis, solid, but not a star. Bedard, yes a star. Guthrie, no, not a star.

So we have a real ace, solid 2b and SS with star potential and a solid RF. That does not make a contender. Lets hope the O's FINALLY learn you have to pick one, win now, or build. To win now we need a BIG TIME LF, and 1B, with another solid starter, maybe a catching upgrade, stronger bench, and a much better pen. That's alot to do in one off season.

Or

Trade Tejada, Roberts (try an extention first), Millar, Hernandez, Cabrerra, Bedard (try to get an extention first), and Mora (if he agrees).

[DrungoHazewood]

Moore is a #1 draft choice. From what I have seen so far he looks to have decent range and hands at third. He has some power and a good sense of how to drive in an RBI. He is below average in getting consistent hits. I think he gets a chance in ST, but is more likely to need half a season at AAA. The PCL is not the International League in my opinion.

No it's not. It has different teams in different cities and tends to be farther west.

If you mean that it's not as difficult as the IL, I think you're wrong.


Penn, Olson, Liz, Hoey are all guys that should progress to the majors sometime next year and should have a bright future. Some of them should be good players you can count on. Next year we find out who is ready to step forward and when they are ready. The all have options that can be used.

There may be a surprise among Leicester, Burres, and Fernando Cabrera. Maybe one of them can turn into a solid pitcher that contributes.

They are all young enough that they might need time before they step up. They may need time to grew. A few veterans could help to start the season. They do not have to be stars. Let's see what is out there that could help.

So how is this collection of four stars and a bunch of decent prospects and journeymen going to evolve into a winning franchise? The Orioles have no hitting prospects who're locks to be even decent major league players in the next two years. None. Scott Moore is a nice addition, but he's probably a .250-.325-450 guy at his peak, not a star to build around. Reimold is about as healthy as JD Drew. Rowell and Snyder (especially) will be lucky to be in Baltimore by the end of 2009.

It's a little better on the pitching side, but with an aging core I find it almost fanciful to suggest that hole-plugging is going to do anything but delay the inevitable. Much of the team is gone after 2009 in any case, and there's not nearly enough talent in the pipeline to compete by then.

If they don't trade at least several of Tejada, Mora, Bedard, Cabrera, Roberts, Huff, or Hernandez I don't see how the team will do anything more than tread water for two years. And there's little worse than a 70-win team treading water.

[Frobby]

This team already has the star players.

No we don't.

Boston has 4 players who have a higher OPS than anyone on the Orioles. New York has 3. Toronto has 3. Even Tampa has 2.

We can expect Markakis to continue to improve and that's about it.

To be competitive in the AL East, your top 3 players had better average around .900 OPS, not .825 like the Orioles.

[Flosman]

No we don't.

Boston has 4 players who have a higher OPS than anyone on the Orioles. New York has 3. Toronto has 3. Even Tampa has 2.

We can expect Markakis to continue to improve and that's about it.

To be competitive in the AL East, your top 3 players had better average around .900 OPS, not .825 like the Orioles.

I do not completely agree with this. You could compete with no 900 OPS players IMO, but then you would have no margin for having any sub par players and you better have the best pitching in the AL.

We don't have enough of anything to compete so it is really not an issue for the O's. This is just a bad team in almost every area. If helthy the SP could be good but other than that the rest of the team is just not good enough. Barring a miracle I don't see the O's doing enough to be much better than 500 next season either.

[wildcard]

Wow! It's not even the off season yet and we are already seeing posts like this! I think you throw around the word STARS a bit more than I would. Roberts, maybe when playing his best. Tejada, was a star, maybe again in the future. Markakis, solid, but not a star. Bedard, yes a star. Guthrie, no, not a star.

So we have a real ace, solid 2b and SS with star potential and a solid RF. That does not make a contender. Lets hope the O's FINALLY learn you have to pick one, win now, or build. To win now we need a BIG TIME LF, and 1B, with another solid starter, maybe a catching upgrade, stronger bench, and a much better pen. That's alot to do in one off season.

Or

Trade Tejada, Roberts (try an extention first), Millar, Hernandez, Cabrerra, Bedard (try to get an extention first), and Mora (if he agrees).

I agree with alot on what you posted except I do consider Markakis a star. I think he has arrived.

My point is that the O's have a many star as many contending teams. Look at Boston. Ortiz, Manny, Beckett and Papelbon. That about it. Schilling used to be. Dice-K is supposed to be, but is he preforming like one.

I think we are saying the same thing about needing to upgrade the rest on the players. The question is how you do it. I don't think you trade your best players to do it. I doubt the McPhail thinks that is what you do either.

[wildcard]

No it's not. It has different teams in different cities and tends to be farther west.

If you mean that it's not as difficult as the IL, I think you're wrong.

That's interesting. I have always thought that it was an excepted fact that the PCL had smaller parks and thinner air that caused hitters to hit better and pitcher to have more problems. I think of the PCL as a hitters league and the International League as a fairer league which more closely reflects a smaller jump to the majors.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's interesting. I have always thought that it was an excepted fact that the PCL had smaller parks and thinner air that caused hitters to hit better and pitcher to have more problems. I think of the PCL as a hitters league and the International League as a fairer league which more closely reflects a smaller jump to the majors.

You're confusing the shape or color of a league's totals with the difficulty of a league. It's no harder to play baseball in the IL or the PCL. It's just more challenging to correctly interpret the statistical record in a league or ballpark that has a different run environment than that of a neutral Major League park.

[DrungoHazewood]

My point is that the O's have a many star as many contending teams. Look at Boston. Ortiz, Manny, Beckett and Papelbon. That about it. Schilling used to be. Dice-K is supposed to be, but is he preforming like one.

You can't be serious. Maybe... maybe you have an argument if the definition of "star" is "recognizable name". Even then I think it's a stretch.

Frobby already pointed out the Red Sox comp. We're just not even close. Ortiz and Manny are miles better than any Oriole hitter. Beckett is a pretty good performance match for Bedard, although Bedard has been better this year. Papelbon is better than any reliever the O's have had in years. Matsuzaka is as valuable as any Oriole pitcher not named Bedard. Kevin Youkilis would be the best hitter on the O's. Dustin Pedroia is about 95% the player Brian Roberts is and he's 23. Mike Lowell is a better hitter than any Oriole.

You could make similar comps to the Yankees. The Indians have at least four hitters better than any Oriole. The Tigers have five. Even on the pitching side the O's only good comps are all on the DL. There are literally Eastern League teams with more star-level talent than the O's current bullpen.

The Orioles need about four or six star-level talents, like 115+ OPS+s or ERA+s before they begin to approch the levels of the real contenders.

[wildcard]

No we don't.

Boston has 4 players who have a higher OPS than anyone on the Orioles. New York has 3. Toronto has 3. Even Tampa has 2.

We can expect Markakis to continue to improve and that's about it.

To be competitive in the AL East, your top 3 players had better average around .900 OPS, not .825 like the Orioles.

The Yankees are the only team that year in year out has three 900 guys. Boston has two Manny and Ortiz. Lowell is not a 900 guy year in year out.

I agree that Boston in Fenway have an edge on offense. An their two big guys are great. Pitching has away been their problem. They also have to pitch in that park. Beckett is star quality. So is Papelbon.

So you are saying that their star player are better then our star player. Sure. I agree. That does not mean the Miggy, Roberts, Bedard and Markakis are not stars.

[osfan83]

The Yankees are the only team that year in year out has three 900 guys. Boston has two Manny and Ortiz. Lowell is not a 900 guy year in year out.

I agree that Boston in Fenway have an edge on offense. An their two big guys are great. Pitching has away been their problem. They also have to pitch in that park. Beckett is star quality. So is Papelbon.

So you are saying that their star player are better then our star player. Sure. I agree. That does not mean the Miggy, Roberts, Bedard and Markakis are not stars.

Again it comes back to your definition of star. IMO this year Bedard was the only star on the O's.

[DrungoHazewood]

So you are saying that their star player are better then our star player. Sure. I agree. That does not mean the Miggy, Roberts, Bedard and Markakis are not stars.

So... what was the point? You said the O's have as many stars as the contenders. But only if you stretch the definition of star to include a bunch of Orioles who aren't as good as the best half-dozen players on the Sox or Yanks.

The only point I see here is that the O's entire roster is at least a few notches behind the contenders.

[nadecir]

So... what was the point? You said the O's have as many stars as the contenders. But only if you stretch the definition of star to include a bunch of Orioles who aren't as good as the best half-dozen players on the Sox or Yanks.

The only point I see here is that the O's entire roster is at least a few notches behind the contenders.The depressing thought is that the Red Sox young players are much better than our young players too.

Wouldn't the Orioles' future look brighter if we had the likes of Pedroia, Papelbon, Ellsbury, and Buckholz? And there are several really good players under 30 that are signed with Boston for a while, like Youkilis, Beckett and Dice-K. Couple this core with the Red Sox's willingness to spend for star talent, and it spells bad news for the Orioles for a while.

[wildcard]

You can't be serious. Maybe... maybe you have an argument if the definition of "star" is "recognizable name". Even then I think it's a stretch.

Frobby already pointed out the Red Sox comp. We're just not even close. Ortiz and Manny are miles better than any Oriole hitter. Beckett is a pretty good performance match for Bedard, although Bedard has been better this year. Papelbon is better than any reliever the O's have had in years. Matsuzaka is as valuable as any Oriole pitcher not named Bedard. Kevin Youkilis would be the best hitter on the O's. Dustin Pedroia is about 95% the player Brian Roberts is and he's 23. Mike Lowell is a better hitter than any Oriole.

You could make similar comps to the Yankees. The Indians have at least four hitters better than any Oriole. The Tigers have five. Even on the pitching side the O's only good comps are all on the DL. There are literally Eastern League teams with more star-level talent than the O's current bullpen.

The Orioles need about four or six star-level talents, like 115+ OPS+s or ERA+s before they begin to approch the levels of the real contenders.

If you really believe this, what the heck are you doing here? Why no just join the Red Sox Nation and be done with it?

Your prespective is way different from mine. I look at Dice-k and I see a guy that is not even as good a Guthrie, in a home park he can't pitch in. 5.10 ERA in Fenway, 5.37 ERA in the 2nd half. You are believing the hype. Did you see this guy against us when they were just here. He is cooked.

Lowell is better then any O's hitter. In Fenway for this year maybe. Lowell is an ok hitter having a good year. He is hitting over 1.000 in Fenway this year and 777 OPS on the road. And he is a FA and Boston has not even decided if they want him back. He is not a star level player.

We have no idea what Pedroia is yet. He had a 804 Ops at AAA and He is 828 now. Maybe he is where he is going to be. 898 at home and 756 on the road. Fenway again. And he has what? 6 steals. But according to you he is 95% of Roberts.

Take your smoke and blow it to the Red Sox Nation. Yes they are better right now and deeper. But don't tell me all this crap about how great all their players are. Its just smoke and Fenway.

The O's are who the O's are not because they don't have star players. It's because they have made very bad decisions. Decisions that cost Flanagan his job. Melvin's contract is too long and so is Gibbons. They added Bako, Payton, Williamson, Baez and Bell. They refuse to get a decent leftfielder and instead keep two utility infielders. That and injuries is why the O's are where the O's are.

It's McPhail's job to make better decisions.

But don't tell me how great all these Red Sox players. Dice-k =5.00 ERA in the 2nd half. Lowell and Pedroia are nothing special on the road.

[Mackus]

But don't tell me how great all these Red Sox players. Dice-k =5.00 ERA in the 2nd half. Lowell and Pedroia are nothing special on the road.Lowell + Pedroia + Matsuzaka > Mora + Roberts + Guthrie.

I'd take Dice-K over Guthrie any day of the week, although probably not when you factor in salary. Pedroia has an .828 OPS as you said, Roberts is only at .815. Roberts is the better player, as Pedroia is largely driven by hitting very well in Fenway, but its not a huge difference. I don't think anybody will argue that Mora is even close to as good as Lowell, offensively or defensively.

You take away points from Lowell and Pedroia for performing drastically better at Fenway because its a hitters park, but then also take away points from Matsuzaka for performing drastically worse at Fenway, thats a hypocritical argument. You don't mention that Guthrie's home ERA is over .75 higher at home, or that he's had an ERA over 5 in the second half as well.

And then you have Ortiz and Manny, who make Nick Markakis look like Corey Patterson at the plate. Theres absolutely no comparison between anybody on our team and those guys.

The Red Sox are just a fantastically better team and organization than the Orioles. They have more stars, more depth, and probably a better farm system as well. Denying that is simply denying the truth. Saying that doesn't make me less of an Orioles fan, its just that the team sucks right now. Theres only a handful of guys that you could consider keystones of a championship caliber club.

[square634]

If you really believe this, what the heck are you doing here? Why no just join the Red Sox Nation and be done with it?

Your prespective is way different from mine. I look at Dice-k and I see a guy that is not even as good a Guthrie, in a home park he can't pitch in. 5.10 ERA in Fenway, 5.37 ERA in the 2nd half. You are believing the hype. Did you see this guy against us when they were just here. He is cooked.

Lowell is better then any O's hitter. In Fenway for this year maybe. Lowell is an ok hitter having a good year. He is hitting over 1.000 in Fenway this year and 777 OPS on the road. And he is a FA and Boston has not even decided if they want him back. He is not a star level player.

We have no idea what Pedroia is yet. He had a 804 Ops at AAA and He is 828 now. Maybe he is where he is going to be. 898 at home and 756 on the road. Fenway again. And he has what? 6 steals. But according to you he is 95% of Roberts.

Take your smoke and blow it to the Red Sox Nation. Yes they are better right now and deeper. But don't tell me all this crap about how great all their players are. Its just smoke and Fenway.

The O's are who the O's are not because they don't have star players. It's because they have made very bad decisions. Decisions that cost Flanagan his job. Melvin's contract is too long and so is Gibbons. They added Bako, Payton, Williamson, Baez and Bell. They refuse to get a decent leftfielder and instead keep two utility infielders. That and injuries is why the O's are where the O's are.

It's McPhail's job to make better decisions.

But don't tell me how great all these Red Sox players. Dice-k =5.00 ERA in the 2nd half. Lowell and Pedroia are nothing special on the road.

Wow, you are picking and choosing numbers pretty conveniently. How about this number? The Orioles are 25 games back of the Red Sox. TWENTY FIVE! I can acknowledge that the Orioles are much, much worse than the Red Sox (in fact it would be delusional to think otherwise) without having to "join Red Sox Nation."

[wildcard]

Lowell + Pedroia + Matsuzaka > Mora + Roberts + Guthrie.

I'd take Dice-K over Guthrie any day of the week, although probably not when you factor in salary. Pedroia has an .828 OPS as you said, Roberts is only at .815. Roberts is the better player, as Pedroia is largely driven by hitting very well in Fenway, but its not a huge difference. I don't think anybody will argue that Mora is even close to as good as Lowell, offensively or defensively.

You take away points from Lowell and Pedroia for performing drastically better at Fenway because its a hitters park, but then also take away points from Matsuzaka for performing drastically worse at Fenway, thats a hypocritical argument. You don't mention that Guthrie's home ERA is over .75 higher at home, or that he's had an ERA over 5 in the second half as well.

And then you have Ortiz and Manny, who make Nick Markakis look like Corey Patterson at the plate. Theres absolutely no comparison between anybody on our team and those guys.

The Red Sox are just a fantastically better team and organization than the Orioles. They have more stars, more depth, and probably a better farm system as well. Denying that is simply denying the truth. Saying that doesn't make me less of an Orioles fan, its just that the team sucks right now. Theres only a handful of guys that you could consider keystones of a championship caliber club.

I am agreeing with you. I said the Manny, Ortiz, Beckett and Papelbon are stars. There is no question. Jon starts telling me how wonderful Lowell, Dice-k and Pedroia are. I still say. Lowell and Pedroia number are greatly affected by Fenway. Dice-k is no better then Guthrie in the 2nd half.

Boston is better than the O's. Why would I even have to type that. But don't build their players into something they are not.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you really believe this, what the heck are you doing here? Why no just join the Red Sox Nation and be done with it?

No thanks, I've stuck with the O's for 30 years, so I'll probably keep at it.

It's a little loopy to suggest that (IMO) an objective assessment that finds the Red Sox have a lot more good players than the 25-games-back Orioles means I'm some kind of SOSH conspiracy guy. Almost all of your assessments of the Orioles are very optimistic, and almost all of your assessments of the Sox are extremely critical.

If Matsuzaka is cooked, then what's Guthrie - who has performed very similarly? Fenway hasn't been an extreme hitter's park in years - it's 2007 factors are 102/101, meaning it's essentially neutral. You've just happened to forget that much of their lineup (say, Youkilis, Manny, Varitek, etc) are hitting as well or better on the road.

I refuse to get in line with any assessment that the disaster that is the 2007 Orioles is only a few pieces and a little rearranging away from contention. It's nonsense. And questioning my fandom isn't going to make it more logical.

The O's have a long, long, long way to go. Time to face facts.

[wildcard]

Wow, you are picking and choosing numbers pretty conveniently. How about this number? The Oriole are 25 games back of the Red Sox. TWENTY FIVE! I can acknowledge that the Orioles are much, much worse than the Red Sox (in fact it would be delusional to think otherwise) without having to "join Red Sox Nation."

Yes, but you are not trying to jam Boston players as the greatest thing in the world down my throat the way Jon was. Yes Boston is much, much better. But Fenway makes their numbers better. Pedrioa can hard steal a base. He is not Roberts who is one of the best leadoff guys in the game. Yet Jon says he is 95% of Roberts.

Lowell - Fenway effect. Dice-k = Guthrie. He just makes a zillion times more.

Boston is better and deeper. But don't overrate each player the way Jon was.

[DrungoHazewood]

Boston is better and deeper. But don't overrate each player the way Jon was.

You have to get your 25 wins somewhere. There's only so much overrating you can do. An average player on the Orioles' roster is a full win worse than an average player on the Red Sox.

[wildcard]

You have to get your 25 wins somewhere. There's only so much overrating you can do. An average player on the Orioles' roster is a full win worse than an average player on the Red Sox.

I never said anything to dispute that. Payton, Patterson, Mora can't hit like they do and the O's pen outside of Walker and Bradford is a disaster. The O's have tons of injuries and Boston has a better 25-30 guys. Who would dare question that.

But some of the O's players are pretty good too. There just aren't enough of them.

[osfan83]

Anyone who is up for a bet, I will take the Sox next year, give you the O's and 10 games and we'll see who finishes better. I might even be persueded to give the O's 15 games next year.

[square634]

I never said anything to dispute that. Payton, Patterson, Mora can't hit like they do and the O's pen outside of Walker and Bradford is a disaster. The O's have tons of injuries and Boston has a better 25-30 guys. Who would dare question that.

But some of the O's players are pretty good too. There just aren't enough of them.

The Orioles' "stars" are nowhere near as good as Boston's "stars," and 3-4 of Boston's other players have produced about as much as our "stars." That is just looking at it in an objective statistical way. That being said, I don't quite understand the point of analyzing the teams in terms of number of "stars." The Red Sox also seem to have much better talent under the age of 25, even with Loewen in the equation. With these two things in mind, I can't be convinced that we can catch the Red Sox by complementing are current stable of "stars." We've been trying to build around our "core" for 8 or so years now. Eventually, we need to come to terms with the fact that it isn't just the periphery that is bad, but that we are rotten to the core.

[bigbird]

Impact players is a better term to use. I'm not sure we really have one besides Bedard.

[Mackus]

Impact players is a better term to use. I'm not sure we really have one besides Bedard.I'd say we have about a handful of guys that could stay in the same exact role they are in with us and be on a championship caliber club.

Bedard could be an ace on any WS contending team. Miggy could start at SS and bat 3rd-5th for any WS contending team. Markakis could start at LF or RF and bat 3rd, 5th, or 6th for any WS contending team. Roberts could leadoff and play 2B for any WS contender. Walker could be the primary lefthanded arm out of the bullpen for any WS contender. All of these guys could be "impact players" or "difference makers" or whatever you want to call them on pretty much any contending team.

We've got another group of players that could fullfill lesser roles on contenders than they fill for us, such as Guthrie, Bradford, Millar, etc. Those guys could be contributors to contenders, but we're asking them to be difference makers.

[bgtimber75]

Anyone who is up for a bet, I will take the Sox next year, give you the O's and 10 games and we'll see who finishes better. I might even be persueded to give the O's 15 games next year.


Blow it up or stay the corse this team finishes 20 games behind NY/Boston next season.

[Mad Mark]

I'd say we have about a handful of guys that could stay in the same exact role they are in with us and be on a championship caliber club.

Bedard could be an ace on any WS contending team. Miggy could start at SS and bat 3rd-5th for any WS contending team. Markakis could start at LF or RF and bat 3rd, 5th, or 6th for any WS contending team. Roberts could leadoff and play 2B for any WS contender. Walker could be the primary lefthanded arm out of the bullpen for any WS contender. All of these guys could be "impact players" or "difference makers" or whatever you want to call them on pretty much any contending team.

We've got another group of players that could fullfill lesser roles on contenders than they fill for us, such as Guthrie, Bradford, Millar, etc. Those guys could be contributors to contenders, but we're asking them to be difference makers.

Excellent analysis, Mackus. The $64,000 question is: can the Orioles fill their current glaring holes around these players, or do they indeed need to "blow it up"?


You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Mackus again.

[bigbird]

I'd say we have about a handful of guys that could stay in the same exact role they are in with us and be on a championship caliber club.

Bedard could be an ace on any WS contending team. Miggy could start at SS and bat 3rd-5th for any WS contending team. Markakis could start at LF or RF and bat 3rd, 5th, or 6th for any WS contending team. Roberts could leadoff and play 2B for any WS contender. Walker could be the primary lefthanded arm out of the bullpen for any WS contender. All of these guys could be "impact players" or "difference makers" or whatever you want to call them on pretty much any contending team.

We've got another group of players that could fullfill lesser roles on contenders than they fill for us, such as Guthrie, Bradford, Millar, etc. Those guys could be contributors to contenders, but we're asking them to be difference makers.

We're talking about our guys vs Boston.. We can't match Manny, Ortiz, Beckett and Paplebon in terms of impact.

[Mackus]

We're talking about our guys vs Boston.. We can't match Manny, Ortiz, Beckett and Paplebon in terms of impact.Well, Bedard can match Beckett, but other than that I agree.

[wildcard]

We're talking about our guys vs Boston.. We can't match Manny, Ortiz, Beckett and Paplebon in terms of impact.

I agree that all four Boston players are great players. However the O's have something that Boston does not have. Roberts and Miggy play skill positions. Manny and Ortiz are thumpers who aren't known for fielding. So I think there are different ways to looking at impact.

Bedard and Beckett are a wash. Papelbon and Markakis are both excellent young players that will make an impact at their positions on the field for years to come.

Just to look at the offensive numbers and say Boston is so much greater ignores the all around games of Roberts and Miggy.

Boston's strength is in the number of good position players and pitchers that they have that are not neccessariy impact players.

[os1971]

I agree that all four Boston players are great players. However the O's have something that Boston does not have. Roberts and Miggy play skill positions. Manny and Ortiz are thumpers who aren't known for fielding. So I think there are different ways to looking at impact.

Bedard and Beckett are a wash. Papelbon and Markakis are both excellent young players that will make an impact at their positions on the field for years to come.

Just to look at the offensive numbers and say Boston is so much greater ignores the all around games of Roberts and Miggy.

Boston strength is in the number of good position players and pitchers that they have.

A guy with no/limited skills playing a skill position doesn't necessarily give us an advantage. In addition to their offense and pitching, Boston's infield defense is far superior to ours.

[bigbird]

I agree that all four Boston players are great players. However the O's have something that Boston does not have. Roberts and Miggy play skill positions. Manny and Ortiz are thumpers who aren't known for fielding. So I think there are different ways to looking at impact.

Bedard and Beckett are a wash. Papelbon and Markakis are both excellent young players that will make an impact at their positions on the field for years to come.

Just to look at the offensive numbers and say Boston is so much greater ignores the all around games of Roberts and Miggy.

Boston's strength is in the number of good position players and pitchers that they have that are not neccessariy impact players.

Paplebon is currently an impact player. One of bassballs best. Nick is a very good young player. Manny and Ortiz are major run producers. We have none of those. How does Roberts and Miggys # compare to the Boston 2B and SS????

[TonySoprano]

Paplebon is currently an impact player. One of bassballs best. Nick is a very good young player. Manny and Ortiz are major run producers. We have none of those. How does Roberts and Miggys # compare to the Boston 2B and SS????The Sox have Julio Lugo and his 68 OPS+ at shortstop. Enough said. Pedroia's OPS+ is only 1 point higher at the moment, 116-115.

[Since'54]

We're talking about our guys vs Boston.. We can't match Manny, Ortiz, Beckett and Paplebon in terms of impact.

I'm betting that Manny and Ortiz have seen their best years. We've seen what happens to overweight first basemen/DH players as they age and Manny no longer seems ready to play after midsummer. To me Bedard is a better bet than Beckett for the next few years. I'll have to give you Papelbon.

[Frobby]

Just to look at the offensive numbers and say Boston is so much greater ignores the all around games of Roberts and Miggy.

Miggy is far better than Lugo, but Roberts has not been far better than ROY candidate Pedroia.

Roberts: .291/.379/.436
Pedroia: .322/.385/.443

Roberts: .990 fielding %, .820 ZR
Pedroia: .990 fielding %, .833 ZR

Brian has the edge, for now, because he has stolen 44 bases to Pedroia's 6. But Pedroia just turned 24 last month, and he is just going to get better with experience.

[wildcard]

Miggy is far better than Lugo, but Roberts has not been far better than ROY candidate Pedroia.

Roberts: .291/.379/.436
Pedroia: .322/.385/.443

Roberts: .990 fielding %, .820 ZR
Pedroia: .990 fielding %, .833 ZR

Brian has the edge, for now, because he has stolen 44 bases to Pedroia's 6. But Pedroia just turned 24 last month, and he is just going to get better with experience.

Now do the park adjustment. Look at what Pedroia does at home and away. The difference is huge. .756 OPS away from home. Fenway is a huge part of his game. Now put Roberts in Fenway. If we are doing comparisons, you have to take that into account. The only reason these to players look close is between Fenway boosts Pedroia numbers greatly.

[Frobby]

Now do the park adjustment. Look at what Pedroia does at home and away. The difference is huge. .756 OPS away from home. Fenway is a huge part of his game. Now put Roberts in Fenway. If we are doing comparisons, you have to take that into account. The only reason these to players look close is between Fenway boosts Pedroia numbers greatly.

You are overrating the imporatance of Fenway. Pedroia has an OPS+ (which is park-adjusted ) of 116, while Roberts is at 115.

Now do the "age 23 adjustment." Brian was 23 in 2001, when he hit .253/.284/.341 in 273 AB, an OPS+ of 70. He never put up even a .756 OPS (Pedroia's away number), or had an OPS+ over 100, until he was 27 years old. Chances are pretty good that Pedroia is going to be better than Roberts.

[TonySoprano]

Now do the park adjustment. Look at what Pedroia does at home and away. The difference is huge. .756 OPS away from home. Fenway is a huge part of his game. Now put Roberts in Fenway. If we are doing comparisons, you have to take that into account. The only reason these to players look close is between Fenway boosts Pedroia numbers greatly.From the "Bill James Handbook 2007" (an annual must-read)

2006 Park Factors (100 is league average)
Fenway BA- RHB 105
Fenway HR - RHB 69
OPACY BA- RHB 99
OPACY HR -RHB 129

Fenway BA- LHB 102
Fenway HR - LHB 86
OPACY BA- LHB 110
OPACY HR -LHB 95


Pedroia bats right. Fenway is below average overall in terms of power and way below average for a right-handed batter. Roberts predominantly bats left (about 2.5 to 1). Camden Yards is more favorable for a left-handed batter than Fenway. In short, Fenway actually inhibits, not boosts, Pedroia's numbers. Camden Yards actually benefits Roberts more than if he played at Fenway. Your assumptions are incorrect.

[Mackus]

In short, Fenway actually inhibits, not boosts, Pedroia's numbers. Camden Yards actually benefits Roberts more than if he played at Fenway. Your assumptions are incorrect.Well, to be fair, the park ratings are an overall assessment of the runs scored/allowed for all batters. Some guys have styles that are more adaptable to one stadium than another, even if the stadium in question is a pitchers park.

Its a fact that Pedroia has hit much better at Fenway. That could be a sample size coincidence, it could be because he's better suited at Fenway than an average park (maybe he loves pounding the ball of the monster Wade Boggs style), or it could just be because he's better rested after spending the night in his own bed and used to the eye backdrop at Fenway.

Isn't it true that most hitters do slightly better at home than away? I'd chalk that up to comfort and familiarity.

[Mark Carver]

Now do the park adjustment. Look at what Pedroia does at home and away. The difference is huge. .756 OPS away from home. Fenway is a huge part of his game. Now put Roberts in Fenway. If we are doing comparisons, you have to take that into account. The only reason these to players look close is between Fenway boosts Pedroia numbers greatly.

Pedroia - 116 OPS+
Roberts - 115 OPS+

OPS+ = ballpark adjusted.

[bigbird]

We're talking about our guys vs Boston.. We can't match Manny, Ortiz, Beckett and Paplebon in terms of impact.

I'm betting that Manny and Ortiz have seen their best years. We've seen what happens to overweight first basemen/DH players as they age and Manny no longer seems ready to play after midsummer. To me Bedard is a better bet than Beckett for the next few years. I'll have to give you Papelbon.


Difference is the Bosox will replace Manny and Ortiz with more impact players not suspects who may or may not pan out. Boston and the Yankees don;t rebuild, they reload.

[Sports Guy]

Difference is the Bosox will replace Manny and Ortiz with more impact players not suspects who may or may not pan out. Boston and the Yankees don;t rebuild, they reload.

Well, the may not reload but they are going to get younger and use those guys in key situations.

[B-more]

And what part of pissing your money away on unpredictable relievers don't you understand?

What part of we aren't going anywhere don't you understand?

We should be trading Bradford and Walker but assume they are here.

If you want to go out and sign one or 2 guys to CHEAP deals...IE 1 year contracts for less than 2 million a year, i would be ok with that(think Aaron Fultz this year).

But for the most part, it should be the kids....Hoey should definitely be in the pen.

Let guys like Olson, Burres, Penn and Liz fight it out for the rotation and the losers get the pen.

Cherry is showing he could be a good member of the pen....FCab should be here as well but needs work.

I would rather, instead of signing FAs to cheap deals, just bring in a bunch of Guthrie-like guys...Good arms, have been starters...Just dropped by their teams....Bring them all in for ST and let them fight it out.

Saying we need a closer is also a joke....Spending 7+ million a year for a closer is ridiculously stupid.

Hell, maybe even Victor Zambrano enters into this as well.

I didnt read the whole thread but I think McPhail will go the route of getting a bunch of cheap guys without sacrificing draft picks. Sort of what they have been doing now. Bring in lots of young guys with potential and see which ones can stick. Then put the others in AAA if possible and bring them up if anyone falters. He may sign a few guys but I doubt he'll sign anyone that will cost much or sign anyone to multiyear contracts.

One good thing is, from his quotes so far, McPhail seems to want to emphasize youth and getting young guys. I hope he follows this strategy in the offseason and works on getting young talent with upside rather than aging players with little upside.