Seems like MacPhail "gets it"

[Hank Scorpio]

Based on this...


In several different interviews over the past couple of days, MacPhail maintained he has yet to decide on a game plan for 2008 and beyond. That will come sometime in the next couple of weeks, after the organizational meetings end.

MacPhail acknowledged a total rebuilding job, which would likely mean the trading or buying out of several veterans, is one option. He said it has become clear, especially in the midst of the Orioles' typical late-season swoon when they lost 28 of their final 39 games, that the team is not close to being a playoff contender.

"I don't think we're one signing away from the postseason," MacPhail said. "I hate to put years on it, because a lot of that is a copout, but it's not like we're right around the corner."

MacPhail said no matter what route the front office chooses, the focus of the organization from this point forward will be on scouting and development, placing a priority on pitching. A recent Baseball America study of player development ranked the Orioles 28th among 30 major league teams. MacPhail said that the number is unacceptable, especially in a division with two financial heavyweights in the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

"We have to do a good job of identifying talent at every level and then teaching it and instructing it," he said. "We're not going to be able to go toe-to-toe, dollar-for-dollar with New York and Boston, nor do you have to necessarily. We just need to do things very well, and that's the same thing on the field."

Rest of article here (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-macphail930,0,5928229.story?coll=bal_tab03_layout) .

[NewMarketSean]

Wow. I am pretty blown away by this. It's exactly what he should have said and it's 100% true. I am all for "actions speak louder than words" but we've never had a FO guy come out and speak the truth like this before. Very encouraging.

[Sports Guy]

GOod to hear...Now execute it.

BRob, Bedard and Tejada...They need to go(to do a proper rebuild).

Trade DCab with Miggy.

Buyout a few bad contracts.

Do it right!

[mweb]

I do like the sound of that, hopefully he follows through. I've liked some of what our former key decision makers have said, the following through part has been the issue.

[JTrea81]

Another excellent quote:

"There are really a small number of players that one would assume would make a meaningful difference, and there will be a lot of activity for them," he said. "We'll look at the economics, the free agents and their ability and get a realistic idea of who might come here."

So no more wasting time trying to woo the Carlos Lee's and Paul Konerko's of the world if they have no intention of signing here. Excellent!

[Spoonless]

GOod to hear...Now execute it.

BRob, Bedard and Tejada...They need to go(to do a proper rebuild).

Trade DCab with Miggy.

Buyout a few bad contracts.

Do it right!

Question for you, SG...

If Mazzone does not return, do you hang on to Cabrera to see how he fares under a different pitching coach? I'm not saying to not shop him around, but if it's a rebuilding year would it really be that detrimental to have him out there?

With that quote a little while back about how the GMs who were looking at Cabrera at the deadline were relieved that they didn't actually trade for him, wouldn't we be better off seeing if he can bounce back and move him next deadline (if the ultimate goal is to move him anyway)?

[Sports Guy]

First thing they need to do this offseason is figure out a direction and then go to Bedard with a contract offer.

Bigbird has mentioned a 4/48 offer...That is a great offer. There is no real need to go much more than that.

So, you approach him with that deal....You tell him what your intentions are.

If he says he doesn't want to sign, then you look to deal him.

[Sports Guy]

Question for you, SG...

If Mazzone does not return, do you hang on to Cabrera to see how he fares under a different pitching coach? I'm not saying to not shop him around, but if it's a rebuilding year would it really be that detrimental to have him out there?

With that quote a little while back about how the GMs who were looking at Cabrera at the deadline were relieved that they didn't actually trade for him, wouldn't we be better off seeing if he can bounce back and move him next deadline (if the ultimate goal is to move him anyway)?

If you can't get anything for him, then you keep DCab.

Let's take Arizona for example....If Arizona will trade Jackson, Quentin/Young and Callaspo for DCab and Tejada, you jump on that trade IMO.

That is what i would do with DCab...Either package him or try and trade him for a good young player who maybe hasn't lived up to hype quite yet(like Quentin)...In other words, trade potential for potential.

[Roy Firestone]

GOod to hear...Now execute it.

BRob, Bedard and Tejada...They need to go(to do a proper rebuild).

Trade DCab with Miggy.

Buyout a few bad contracts.

Do it right!

If we just dealt our best pitcher and arguably our best veteran player along with a guy who hit nearly 20 Home Runs with nearly 80 RBI's after missing a month of the season..do you really believe that even with some quality prospects...we can be that much better someday..do you really???
I can see moving Tejada, Cabrera and trying to get out from under some contracts(Gibbons and maybe Mora) but the liklihood of us making all of the moves above sounds desperate..and panic button stuff. No way we make all those moves...unless Macphail is a complete idiot. I GUARENTEE WE WONT MOVE BEDARD..AND ROBERTS..I GUARENTEE IT..
Sports guy....ask your doctor and see what Paxil can do or you!

[Jimmy The Greek]

Encouraging to say the least. We can argue all we want about the Weiters signing, Trax trade, the way the team collapsed, Trembley's extension, but the truth is we know nothing about who the Orioles are under MacPhail until we see what he does this offseason. If this quote is any indication of what he will actually do, I am optimistic.

I especially like "trading or buying out of several veterans" - particularly the "buying out" part. I think there are some players with little value who we need to part ways with, even if it means eating the money (I don't even feel the need to name them :p).

[weams]

The names are...

Gibbons,

Millar,

Mora

[cindyluvsbrady]

If we just dealt our best pitcher and arguably our best veteran player along with a guy who hit nearly 20 Home Runs with nearly 80 RBI's after missing a month of the season..do you really believe that even with some quality prospects...we can be that much better someday..do you really???
I can see moving Tejada, Cabrera and trying to get out from under some contracts(Gibbons and maybe Mora) but the liklihood of us making all of the moves above sounds desperate..and panic button stuff. No way we make all those moves...unless Macphail is a complete idiot. I GUARENTEE WE WONT MOVE BEDARD..AND ROBERTS..I GUARENTEE IT..
Sports guy....ask your doctor and see what Paxil can do or you!

Im thankful for a voice of sanity!:002_ssmile:

[Miller192]

If we just dealt our best pitcher and arguably our best veteran player along with a guy who hit nearly 20 Home Runs with nearly 80 RBI's after missing a month of the season..do you really believe that even with some quality prospects...we can be that much better someday..do you really???
I can see moving Tejada, Cabrera and trying to get out from under some contracts(Gibbons and maybe Mora) but the liklihood of us making all of the moves above sounds desperate..and panic button stuff. No way we make all those moves...unless Macphail is a complete idiot. I GUARENTEE WE WONT MOVE BEDARD..AND ROBERTS..I GUARENTEE IT..
Sports guy....ask your doctor and see what Paxil can do or you!

Are you serious? If this team is rebuilding with quality, unproven talent what good is BRob and Bedard to us especially since they could fetch us more talent. Not dealing them is just half-assing it.

"Desperate and panic button stuff"? Have you been an O's fan for long? I'd call it pretty desperate right now.

[Fan4Life]

The names are...

Gibbons,

Payton,

Mora

Fixed that for ya....

[Sports Guy]

If we just dealt our best pitcher and arguably our best veteran player along with a guy who hit nearly 20 Home Runs with nearly 80 RBI's after missing a month of the season..do you really believe that even with some quality prospects...we can be that much better someday..do you really???
I can see moving Tejada, Cabrera and trying to get out from under some contracts(Gibbons and maybe Mora) but the liklihood of us making all of the moves above sounds desperate..and panic button stuff. No way we make all those moves...unless Macphail is a complete idiot. I GUARENTEE WE WONT MOVE BEDARD..AND ROBERTS..I GUARENTEE IT..
Sports guy....ask your doctor and see what Paxil can do or you!

Roy...Do you understand the need to get younger, cheaper, deeper and more talented?

Do you get that this team is going NO WHERE and that guys like BEdard and BRob are going to leave in 2 years anyway?

Do you get that we are extremely unlikely to contend over those next 2 years to convince them to stay?

And, do you also understand that even if we do convince them to stay that we will have to give them long term, high dollar, foolish contracts that will likely come back to hurt us?

If you understand these things, then i don't see how you can be upset if they are dealt.

If you don't understand this, i would like to know how you think we are going to get younger, better, cheaper and more talented?

Your idea is to trade guys with NTC, guys in down years or guys with no value...What happens when you do that? You go out and sign more of the same guys you just traded because you have no MiL depth to put players at those positions.

[Fan4Life]

Roy...Do you understand the need to get younger, cheaper, deeper and more talented?

Do you get that this team is going NO WHERE and that guys like BEdard and BRob are going to leave in 2 years anyway?

Do you get that we are extremely unlikely to contend over those next 2 years to convince them to stay?

And, do you also understand that even if we do convince them to stay that we will have to give them long term, high dollar, foolish contracts that will likely come back to hurt us?

If you understand these things, then i don't see how you can be upset if they are dealt.

If you don't understand this, i would like to know how you think we are going to get younger, better, cheaper and more talented?

Your idea is to trade guys with NTC, guys in down years or guys with no value...What happens when you do that? You go out and sign more of the same guys you just traded because you have no MiL depth to put players at those positions.


I'm not sure about Roberts, but Tejada, yeah, and if Bedard will not sign an extension this offseason, see ya.... I think we can make a nice dent in rebuilding with trading Bedard, DCab, Tejada. However, since our philosophy as defined by our FO is on pitching, it isn't likley Bedard is going anywhere regradless this offseason.

[Sports Guy]

I'm not sure about Roberts, but Tejada, yeah, and if Bedard will not sign an extension this offseason, see ya.... I think we can make a nice dent in rebuilding with trading Bedard, DCab, Tejada. However, since our philosophy as defined by our FO is on pitching, it isn't likley Bedard is going anywhere regradless this offseason.

Roberts has to be traded...There is no real reason to hold onto him IMO.(ok, before anyone jumps in and cries about it....you obviously have to get the right offer)

And yea, the philosophy may be based around pitching and i do think MacPhail will make a run at Bedard but if he doesn't sign an extension, you have to trade him.

If they are willing to trade BRob, DCab and Tejada and can sign BEdard to an extension, i won't be that upset if they hang onto Erik but Bedard will get us the most players.

I just doubt he would want to sign here if you trade all of those guys.

[Fan4Life]

Roberts has to be traded...There is no real reason to hold onto him IMO.(ok, before anyone jumps in and cries about it....you obviously have to get the right offer)

And yea, the philosophy may be based around pitching and i do think MacPhail will make a run at Bedard but if he doesn't sign an extension, you have to trade him.

If they are willing to trade BRob, DCab and Tejada and can sign BEdard to an extension, i won't be that upset if they hang onto Erik but Bedard will get us the most players.

I just doubt he would want to sign here if you trade all of those guys.

How many of the Dodgers great young guys might we be able to get for Bedard in your opnion?

[Miller192]

I am 100% with SG on this.

With such a thin free-agent market this year, we have a real opportunity to set this club for a great future.

[Sports Guy]

How many of the Dodgers great young guys might we be able to get for Bedard in your opnion?

Three.

I would think Kershaw, LaRoche and Hu is a good package for him.

I then look to deal Tejada and DCab for Quentin, Jackson and Callaspo.

Then trade BRob to a team focusing on getting a pitcher and a CF prospect.

Would try and trade Mora to the Indians or Twins for one of their solid relievers.(paying up to 70% of Mora's contract)

[clapdiddy]

I am as big of a "blow it up" guy as it comes. There is one thing I'm a little concerned about...

What happens if many of these teams that expect to be contenders next year just decide to go with young players? I've seen some articles (sorry, no links, but I'm speaking in generalities) that may indicate teams like the Dodgers or Arizona are perfectly happy working with the talent they've developed.

I think the biggest impact player we could deal right now would be Bedard. Pitching is one thing that will get you something decent back, especially when the free agent market is a bit thin this off season. He could be the one guy who other teams would be willing to give up a ton of young talent for.

[Fan4Life]

Three.

I would think Kershaw, LaRoche and Hu is a good package for him.

I then look to deal Tejada and DCab for Quentin, Jackson and Callaspo.

Then trade BRob to a team focusing on getting a pitcher and a CF prospect.

Would try and trade Mora to the Indians or Twins for one of their solid relievers.(paying up to 70% of Mora's contract)

I like it, are the Mets in the market for a 2b after their collapse? And if so, what could we get from them for Roberts?

[Sports Guy]

I like it, are the Mets in the market for a 2b after their collapse? And if so, what could we get from them for Roberts?

The Mets are one team...Milledge would be fine...I would certainly take Pelfrey or Humber but i am not sure they are as good as many here think.

Would the Cubs want BRob? I think Dave said they like DeRosa there...If they would be interested, would a Pie and Mashall deal work?

I would think the Padres would be interested but if we get LaRoche in a deal for Bedard, that takes away what we could get back from them.(Headley would be target)

The Rockies could have interest in BRob as well.

I just through out those 3 trades but at the end of the day, this is what we need to come up with:

CF
SS
third base
2nd
1st
pitching

In other words, we need everything because well, we have nothing.

[slaphitter]

Any monies spent on extending Tejada or Roberts would be well spent.

These two will remain productive ( barring injury ) throughout their thirties.

We need two more younger players just like them. The balance between All Star caliber veterans and solid youngsters will only help a rebuilding team quicken the rebuild.

Roberts and Tejada should be untouchable. They BOTH need to step up and take a captain like approach in 2008. Roberts can continue his proven success , while Miggy rebounds from his so-so season.

Bedard and Cabrera can get us every thing else we need. I trust MacPhail.

Dump Gibbons , trade Payton for some younger bench help.

Above all , don't go into the off season with Tike already penciled in CF.

[BaltBird 24]

CF
SS
third base
2nd
1st
pitching

In other words, we need everything because well, we have nothing.

Are you considering Reimold for LF, otherwise you'd have to add that to the list. Really we have Markakis and 8 other positions that either need traded for younger players are players acquired to fill giant holes.

[Sports Guy]

Are you considering Reimold for LF, otherwise you'd have to add that to the list. Really we have Markakis and 8 other positions that either need traded for younger players are players acquired to fill giant holes.

Yea, LF can added on there as well...Reimold is possible as well.

[Sports Guy]

Any monies spent on extending Tejada or Roberts would be well spent.

These two will remain productive ( barring injury ) throughout their thirties. Based on what?


We need two more younger players just like them. The balance between All Star caliber veterans and solid youngsters will only help a rebuilding team quicken the rebuild.Just 2???


Roberts and Tejada should be untouchable. They BOTH need to step up and take a captain like approach in 2008. Roberts can continue his proven success , while Miggy rebounds from his so-so season.We have just had a season where we won 69 games...We have had a losing record for 10 straight years...We are expensive, old, declining, aging and lacking depth...Untouchable? No way.

[davearm]

If we just dealt our best pitcher and arguably our best veteran player along with a guy who hit nearly 20 Home Runs with nearly 80 RBI's after missing a month of the season..do you really believe that even with some quality prospects...we can be that much better someday..do you really???
I can see moving Tejada, Cabrera and trying to get out from under some contracts(Gibbons and maybe Mora) but the liklihood of us making all of the moves above sounds desperate..and panic button stuff. No way we make all those moves...unless Macphail is a complete idiot. I GUARENTEE WE WONT MOVE BEDARD..AND ROBERTS..I GUARENTEE IT..
Sports guy....ask your doctor and see what Paxil can do or you!
As bad as the O's were this year, just try to imagine how much worse they'll be if they lose Tejada, Bedard, and Roberts to free agency in a couple years, and get nothing but draft picks in return.

[BaltBird 24]

The only player on the entire team that I would consider to be untouchable Markakis.

There's no real hope on the way for LF, CF, SS, 3B, or 1B in the upper minors, with Reimold being the closest thing but with his injury history it's tough to count on him for anything.

Also, all the talk is nice and all....... but we've heard this before and yet we are still signing the Jay Payton's, Aubrey Huff's, Kevin Millar's, etc of the world every offseason.

[Sports Guy]

The only player on the entire team that I would consider to be untouchable Markakis.

There's no real hope on the way for LF, CF, SS, 3B, or 1B in the upper minors, with Reimold being the closest thing but with his injury history it's tough to count on him for anything.

Also, all the talk is nice and all....... but we've heard this before and yet we are still signing the Jay Payton's, Aubrey Huff's, Kevin Millar's, etc of the world every offseason.

I am not sure we have heard this though.

MacPhail does seem to get it more than Thribeattaganquette.

[BaltBird 24]

I am not sure we have heard this though.

MacPhail does seem to get it more than Thribeattaganquette.

The first time around with Beattie and Flanagan didn't we hear about wanting to work on development in the minors, going younger, and building up the young pitching?

Maybe it's more legit with MacPhail running things as opposed to two guys who were most likely over their head, but after so many years I'll expect more medicore signings of guys who do nothing for us instead of trades like you've proposed to LA, Arizona, and the Mets that would actually help build a real nucleus here in Baltimore.

[Sports Guy]

The first time around with Beattie and Flanagan didn't we hear about wanting to work on development in the minors, going younger, and building up the young pitching? Well, the minors did get better and they did build up the pitching(to their credit)...They just didn't do enough of this and they did practically nothing else.


Maybe it's more legit with MacPhail running things as opposed to two guys who were most likely over their head, but after so many years I'll expect more medicore signings of guys who do nothing for us instead of trades like you've proposed to LA, Arizona, and the Mets that would actually help build a real nucleus here in Baltimore.

Well, i think this is the correct way to think....How can we realistically think any different as fans?

[rolliefingers]

As others have said, this is nice to hear. But let's see some results. Bedard, Tejada and Roberts are by far our most valuable commodities. So let's get some young talent for them and focus on 2010, when Erbe, Rowell, Spoone and the rest might be ready.

Here's where we're pretty much set for the future:

C Wieters
1B
2B
SS
3B Moore...fine starting 3B if we have a lot more offensive weapons elsewhere
LF
CF
RF Markakis
DH Reimold, maybe

Guthrie
Loewen
Penn
Liz
etc.


Aside from Markakis, there's not a complete sure thing on that roster. There's him, and then a ton of talented guys who need time to develop.

Bedard for Kershaw, Kemp/Loney and Hu.

Roberts, Walker, Bradford and cash for Milledge and Humber.

Tejada for Callaspo and Quentin.

C Wieters
1B Loney
2B Callaspo
SS Hu
3B Moore
LF Quentin
CF Milledge
RF Markakis
DH Reimold

Guthrie
Kershaw
Humber
Loewen
Penn
Liz
etc.

As I said in a previous thread, I'd buy season tickets to watch that team.

[bej6789]

Reading that article makes me feel better about a lot of things, lets hope he continues and follows through with his thoughts. It's one thing to say "we're not close to a playoff team" and then it's another thing to change that.

That being said, I think the right thing to do here is blow it up from top to bottom. The idea of building this team up from the farm system is the right thought. Here's what I'd do:

1. Offer Bedard a competitive deal in the range of a Roy Oswalt type deal (I believe that was around 83 million). If he declines, trade him. The Orioles aren't going to be good within the next two years, so the hope that we get to be a competitive team and entice him to sign with us is a joke. We're not getting that much better within the next two years. If he doesn't want to sign with us this offseason, he won't next offseason, for sure. Trade him to the NL to like the Mets or Dodgers for 3-4 great prospects and really load up the farm system.

2. Trade Tejada. There is no "move to 3rd" option for him, he's a marketing chip for a team that isn't going anywhere while he's still going to be productive. Give his spot to Luis Hernandez or Scott Moore (at 3B). Get the 2 "high ceiling" prospects that a rival exec. said we could get for him, stick em in AA or AAA with the guys we get in a Bedard deal and let them grow up together. Get them used to the roles they'll be playing if they hopefully reach the majors so there is no adjustment process to a new position.

3. Keep Brob. I know I know I know he's also another one of our most marketable pieces. But there's NOTHING beyond him in the system (that may apply to Bedard and Tejada, as well), but Brian Roberts strikes me as the player who could stick around for the long haul if he see's some nice improvements, rather than being 1 foot out the door already like Bedard. He plays the game the right way, he's a great leadoff hitter and he's irreplaceable. I'd keep him, unless I get at least 3 top notch prospects.

4. Gutting the front office, except for Joe Jordan. Flanny has to go, plain and simple. He's been around the losing culture for quite awhile, so it's time to see that nice little window close.

5. The coaching staff needs to be re-tooled. BJ Surhoff is a must. Same with a guy like Mike Bordick. Players who played the right way and did it for awhile. It's time to start getting some life injected into this ballclub.

6. Continuing the development of a relationship with Scott Boras. Good players go through him, and if it means negotiating a 2 year deal with Corey Patterson, then so be it. It's a necessary evil that needs to be dealt with. Wieters was the start of something great, lets keep it going.

[Sports Guy]

As others have said, this is nice to hear. But let's see some results. Bedard, Tejada and Roberts are by far our most valuable commodities. So let's get some young talent for them and focus on 2010, when Erbe, Rowell, Spoone and the rest might be ready.

Here's where we're pretty much set for the future:

C Wieters
1B
2B
SS
3B Moore...fine starting 3B if we have a lot more offensive weapons elsewhere
LF
CF
RF Markakis
DH Reimold, maybe

Guthrie
Loewen
Penn
Liz
etc.


Aside from Markakis, there's not a complete sure thing on that roster. There's him, and then a ton of talented guys who need time to develop.

Bedard for Kershaw, Kemp/Loney and Hu.

Roberts, Walker, Bradford and cash for Milledge and Humber.
Tejada for Callaspo and Quentin.

C Wieters
1B Loney
2B Callaspo
SS Hu
3B Moore
LF Quentin
CF Milledge
RF Markakis
DH Reimold

Guthrie
Kershaw
Humber
Loewen
Penn
Liz
etc.

As I said in a previous thread, I'd buy season tickets to watch that team.

You could probably get Milledge and Humber for BRob by himself.

[BaltBird 24]

Well, i think this is the correct way to think....How can we realistically think any different as fans?

Which is why I'll take all of what anyone with the Orioles says as suspect until they can actually prove that they will follow through with it.

Nothing would make me happier than to wake up one morning and see that the O's have decided to cut ties with Mora, Tejada, Roberts, and the rest of the crew that have failed to help bring a winning season in their tenures as Orioles.

[wildcard]

McPhail and Trembley say it is all about pitching. They can evaluation all the want. I still say they are not going to come up with a better future then Bedard, Guthrie and Loewen.

I see them adding a veteran starter and I will not be surprised one bit if it is Trachsel. He had 18 starts this year where he went 5 innings or more and gave up 3 runs for less. The was in 29 starts. I don't see them finding anyone that will do better.

Then for the fifth spot it will be a spring training shoot out between Burres, Penn and Olson.

This team's progress is all about getting Loewen, Penn and Olson to pitch to their potential. The O's have waited on these guys to be ready for the majors for years. Their time has come. I would think that the rotation by the end of 2008 will be Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Olson and Penn. That is a future.

I would wait another year on trading Bedard if he does not sign this off season. Trading a #1 pitcher is not something that the team should do lightly. He is too hard to replace. I think that will be the conclusion of the organizational meetings.

If the young rotation really does come together by the end of 2008 then Bedard will sign because he will see a future in Baltimore.

[Sports Guy]

McPhail and Trembley say it is all about pitching. They can evaluation all the want. I still say they are not going to come up with a better future then Bedard, Guthrie and Loewen.

I see them adding a veteran starter and I will not be surprised one bit if it is Trachsel. He had 18 starts this year where he went 5 innings or more and gave up 3 runs for less. The was in 29 starts. I don't see them finding anyone that will do better.

Then for the fifth spot it will be a spring training shoot out between Burres, Penn and Olson.

This team's progress is all about getting Loewen, Penn and Olson to pitch to their potential. The O's have waited on these guys to be ready for the majors for years. Their time has come. I would think that the rotation by the end of 2008 will be Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Olson and Penn. That is a future.

I would wait another year on trading Bedard if he does not sign this off season. Trading a #1 pitcher is not something that the team should do lightly. He is too hard to replace. I think that will be the conclusion of the organizational meetings.

If the young rotation really does come together by the end of 2008 then Bedard will sign because he will see a future in Baltimore.

This is a joke right?

Every year we say our future rests on Loewen, Olson, DCab, etc.....

We need other guys to rest our future on...We need more talent.

Only way to get that talent is to make several trades.

[rolliefingers]

You could probably get Milledge and Humber for BRob by himself.

There's a wide range of possible values for BRob. I don't think he's worth Milledge and Humber alone, but hey, couldn't hurt to try. He's certainly a very valuable player, and he'd fit in perfectly on that team.

Looking at that new lineup, it does seem like a pipe dream, but it really isn't that far off. Maybe sub Kershaw and Loney with Elbert and LaRoche - who knows.

Bedard, Roberts and Tejada are certainly going to be the foundation of our team going forward...except, in the form of the players we get back for them.

This is the time to do it. All three are at or near the peak of their value - or, in Tejada's case, as high as he'll be again.

[rolliefingers]

This is a joke right?

Wildcard doesn't joke.

[Sports Guy]

There's a wide range of possible values for BRob. I don't think he's worth Milledge and Humber alone, but hey, couldn't hurt to try. He's certainly a very valuable player, and he'd fit in perfectly on that team.You overrate Humber IMO.


Looking at that new lineup, it does seem like a pipe dream, but it really isn't that far off. Maybe sub Kershaw and Loney with Elbert and LaRoche - who knows.
If Kershaw isn't in the deal, i don't trade Bedard to the Dodgers...Elbert had surgery to repair his labrum.

I actually think i may prefer LaRoche to Loney to be honest with you.

[RShack]

sports guy...i like you..but you are insane!
If we just dealt our best pitcher and arguably our best veteran player along with a guy who hit nearly 20 Home Runs with nearly 80 RBI's after missing a month of the season..do you really believe that even with some quality prospects...we can be that much better someday..do you really???
I can see moving Tejada, Cabrera and trying to get out from under some contracts(Gibbons and maybe Mora) but the liklihood of us making all of the moves above sounds desperate..and panic button stuff. No way we make all those moves...unless Macphail is a complete idiot. I GUARENTEE WE WONT MOVE BEDARD..AND ROBERTS..I GUARENTEE IT..
Sports guy....ask your doctor and see what Paxil can do or you!
Roy, I haven't read the rest of this thread, but my guess is that you just triggered 2 things:

1. A response of "you just don't get it".
2. A bunch of follow-up posts about specific trade ideas.

This is what always happens when you question the premise.

Here's how I think this works: Take a 100 point scale, where 0 = "doing nothing", and 100 = "cleaning house and trading everydamnbody".
SG thinks 100 is the One True Path. I think this is because he views this as a commodities problem, one in which being attached to anybody is a flaw, and one in which all short-term concerns are red herrings that must be bravely ignored. "Sell that commodity while it's high" is all that matters. He does not see baseball as anything beyond that.
Nobody but nobody favors 0. But if you don't take the 100 position, some folks assume you do. No middle ground is permitted. Moderation is labeled as stupid half-measures that are equivalent to 0. So, even if you would place yourself at 60 or 75 or 80, you are treated as if you are advocating 0. It doesn't matter what you say, it's all or nothing, so if you don't say 100, then you're accused of supporting 0. (It's very similar to our modern politics ;-)
Personally, I think there are good things about being attached to what you have, if you show good sense and are selective about it. I also think there are practical reasons which dictate that you cannot and should not do everything at once. But this is always met with a response of "you don't get it".
I think that SG has some good insights, but I think there are things that he doesn't get either, such as the value of stable attachments and the need for steady, gradual improvement. But, since he doesn't even see these things, he truly believes that I am somehow blind. He doesn't get that I'm seeing some real things too, things that he fails to see. His only explanation for disagreement is that the other person fails to see things with his laser-like clarity, and therefore just don't get it.
I think it comes down to some folks not being able to recognize their blind spots. We all have blind spots. It's just that SG thinks that any disagreement with him is proof that everybody else has a blind spot. He doesn't believe that he might have some too. So, if you see something he doesn't, it's a case of you failing to see properly. In the meantime, he gets a lot of support. I think part of this is because he's selling answers that are both easy and decisive. And easy-yet-decisive answers always have some audience (which is another way in which this is similar to our modern politics).

[Sports Guy]

Roy, I haven't read the rest of this thread, but my guess is that you just triggered 2 things:

1. A response of "you just don't get it".
2. A bunch of follow-up posts about specific trade ideas.

This is what always happens when you question the premise.

Here's how I think this works: Take a 100 point scale, where 0 = "doing nothing", and 100 = "cleaning house and trading everydamnbody".
SG thinks 100 is the One True Path. I think this is because he views this as a commodities problem, one in which being attached to anybody is a flaw, and one in which all short-term concerns are red herrings that must be bravely ignored. "Sell that commodity while it's high" is all that matters. He does not see baseball as anything beyond that.
Nobody but nobody favors 0. But if you don't take the 100 position, some folks assume you do. No middle ground is permitted. Moderation is labeled as stupid half-measures that are equivalent to 0. So, even if you would place yourself at 60 or 75 or 80, you are treated as if you are advocating 0. It doesn't matter what you say, it's all or nothing, so if you don't say 100, then you're accused of supporting 0. (It's very similar to our modern politics ;-)
Personally, I think there are good things about being attached to what you have, if you show good sense and are selective about it. I also think there are practical reasons which dictate that you cannot and should not do everything at once. But this is always met with a response of "you don't get it".
I think that SG has some good insights, but I think there are things that he doesn't get either, such as the value of stable attachments and the need for steady, gradual improvement. But, since he doesn't even see these things, he truly believes that I am somehow blind. He doesn't get that I'm seeing some real things too, things that he fails to see. His only explanation for disagreement is that the other person fails to see things with his laser-like clarity, and therefore just don't get it.
I think it comes down to some folks not being able to recognize their blind spots. We all have blind spots. It's just that SG thinks that any disagreement with him is proof that everybody else has a blind spot. He doesn't believe that he might have some too. So, if you see something he doesn't, it's a case of you failing to see properly. In the meantime, he gets a lot of support. I think part of this is because he's selling answers that are both easy and decisive. And easy-yet-decisive answers always have some audience (which is another way in which this is similar to our modern politics).

Who would have guessed it?

Rshack makes a post that has nothing to do with baseball!

This was such a better place when you were gone.

[wildcard]

This is a joke right?

Every year we say our future rests on Loewen, Olson, DCab, etc.....

We need other guys to rest our future on...We need more talent.

Only way to get that talent is to make several trades.

If McPhail means what he says, that it is all about pitching then his evaluation at the organizational meetings is likely to say keep Bedard. The O's are not going to get better pitching then that.

Yes, they need to trade. Miggy and DCab are the most likely candidates. Hernandez appeared to quit in August and Sept. Trembley knows if he quit or was hurt. I do not. If he quit I would not be surprised to see him go.

There will be a lot of talk around moving Huff, Payton, Gibbons, Millar and Mora. If they can, they probably will. I just don't know if they can and get anything useful in return.

[Sports Guy]

If McPhail means what he says, that it is all about pitching then his evaluation at the organizational meetings is likely to say keep Bedard. The O's are not going to get better pitching then that.

Yes, they need to trade. Miggy and DCab are the most likely candidates. Hernandez appeared to quit in August and Sept. Trembley knows if he quit or was hurt. I do not. If he quit I would not be surprised to see him go.

There will be a lot of talk around moving Huff, Payton, Gibbons, Millar and Mora. If they can, they probably will. I just don't know if they can and get anything useful in return.

Again, if you get rid of these guys all you are going to do is sign more mediocre vets to replace them because that is all we will be able to do to replace them.

[mweb]

I'm not as extreme as SG on this, but I mostly agree with him. We don't need to trade Brob and Bedard, but I support trading them, and if we can't extend Bedard, we really need to trade him. We need to focus on getting more young talent.

The only way I'd be ok with not rebuilding is if we can put together a legit contender next year, which would be very difficult to accomplish.

[Sports Guy]

I'm not as extreme as SG on this, but I mostly agree with him. We don't need to trade Brob and Bedard, but I support trading them, and if we can't extend Bedard, we really need to trade him. We need to focus on getting more young talent.

The only way I'd be ok with not rebuilding is if we can put together a legit contender next year, which would be very difficult to accomplish.

I just don't see how we can compete long term.

That is what i want. I don't want a one year scenario where we can compete and then that's it.

The only guy who may be able to help us long term is AROD and really, even if we could get AROD, i would still look to get younger around him and if you do that, he isn't going to want to come here anyway.

[wildcard]

Again, if you get rid of these guys all you are going to do is sign more mediocre vets to replace them because that is all we will be able to do to replace them.

I think you are right that McPhail will try to make moves. I also think you are ignoring how strongly he talks about pitching being the #1 priority. It is his words not mine.

"If there is one thing that the last two months have brought home, you have no chance in this division if you don't pitch well," he said. "When I first came here, I said that pitching is 85 percent of the game. In this division, it might be 90 percent. When Erik Bedard started, we were 19-9. Good pitching is going to thwart real good teams. It is my belief now that this franchise is really going to have to focus on pitching."

That does not sound like a guy that is going to trade Bedard without trying everything possible to sign him. Even waiting a year until the next off season. That will give McPhail some time to improve the team.

[mweb]

I just don't see how we can compete long term.

That is what i want. I don't want a one year scenario where we can compete and then that's it.

The only guy who may be able to help us long term is AROD and really, even if we could get AROD, i would still look to get younger around him and if you do that, he isn't going to want to come here anyway.

Well like I said, it would be very difficult to accomplish anyway, so really the only realistic option is to rebuild.

[RShack]

Who would have guessed it?

Rshack makes a post that has nothing to do with baseball!

This was such a better place when you were gone.
It's not about baseball, but neither is your habit of diss'ing anyone who doesn't buy your extreme premise. If you didn't do that about 100 times per week, we'd prolly have more people posting around here. And thanks for the negative rep points. I especially liked your comment about how I "take up valuable space for the real posters". Evidently, "real posters" refers to only to folks who wish to discuss trades all the time and/or spread ugly vibes by using combative insults and soundbite logic in lieu of actual content. Funny how you can dish it out, but you just can't take it.

What's even more hilarious is that you did indeed respond to Roy by assuming that he just doesn't understand. (Gee, I wonder how I knew that was gonna happen? Who could have guessed?)

[caljr]

Sorry Wild Card, I just noticed that I posted about the same thing you did.....

"If there is one thing that the last two months have brought home, you have no chance in this division if you don't pitch well," he said. "When I first came here, I said that pitching is 85 percent of the game. In this division, it might be 90 percent. When Erik Bedard started, we were 19-9. Good pitching is going to thwart real good teams. It is my belief now that this franchise is really going to have to focus on pitching."


I think this is the most telling quote in the article. Because of this, I can also see McPhail hanging on to Bedard. If I had to guess what his plan will be, I would guess that he tries the following....
:Trade Tejada and Cabrera for the best combination of young pitching prospects offered.
:Try to sign Bedard long term. If he can't get it done this offseason, I think he will wait until next offseason hoping that Bedard will a new outlook on the franchise and want to sign an extension.
:Try to sign Tori Hunter to replace Tejada's bat
:Try to release and or trade the following... Mora, Gibbons, Payton

[olehippi]

It seems like everyone expects MacPhail to tear apart the team, make all these trades now, and totally rebuild it this off-season. I suspect that the rebuild will be done gradually over the course of the next 2-3 years beginning with a trade or two this off-season, a FA signing or two, and cutting some of the dead wood from the roster. I fully expect Tejada to be traded, just as I fully expect Roberts and Bedard to still be here next year.

[HeatherC12]

It seems like everyone expects MacPhail to tear apart the team, make all these trades now, and totally rebuild it this off-season. I suspect that the rebuild will be done gradually over the course of the next 2-3 years beginning with a trade or two this off-season, a FA signing or two, and cutting some of the dead wood from the roster. I fully expect Tejada to be traded, just as I fully expect Roberts and Bedard to still be here next year.

That's actually what I was thinking too. A gradual rebuild makes more sense if you're looking to build long term and it would be a little less shocking to the entire organization and fanbase. I think cutting some of the dead wood alone improves this club in huge ways. I think Miggy will be gone before next year and I'm curious to see if DCab will be gone too. I also wonder if the upcoming coaching changes could make a difference because sometimes all a player or pitcher needs to have is that type of change to make some good improvements to their playing and performance (not that I want to keep all the dead wood or anything though).

I do have a random question. Aren't there other ways to sign minor league prospect type guys without trading away your own guys? Somehow, Wayne Krivsky keeps finding these good guys for the Reds without giving away the entire farm system and I have no idea how he keeps doing that without causing huge holes anywhere. :eek:

[geschinger]

That's actually what I was thinking too. A gradual rebuild makes more sense if you're looking to build long term and it would be a little less shocking to the entire organization and fanbase. I think cutting some of the dead wood alone improves this club in huge ways.


That's been the thinking in recent years but it seems like there is always plenty of dead wood to replace the dead wood that we get rid of. I expect a rebuild to be more gradual as well although I do think a more agressive approach would be expedite the process.

[Crazysilver03]

I would like to see us utilize the Rule V draft this year, to either pick up a back up catcher, a back up outfielder, or a longman or 6th/7th reliever.

I dont think there are any steals like Hamilton but there is always going to be some talent out there.

[RShack]

That's been the thinking in recent years but it seems like there is always plenty of dead wood to replace the dead wood that we get rid of.
That's it, in a nutshell.

I expect him to make a few changes per year for a few years. I think his first priority will be on getting the organization right and on making enough moves this off-season to establish a convincing tone of change. While there appears to be about 50 different definitions of "Blow it up", I think AM will disappoint the more radical of these, while doing what the more moderate folks have been wanting. If 0 = "stay attached to what you've got" and 100 = "trade everydamnbody and start over", I think he'll spread a score of 60 or 70 over a small number of years. But only time will tell...

[JTrea81]

I would like to see us utilize the Rule V draft this year, to either pick up a back up catcher, a back up outfielder, or a longman or 6th/7th reliever.

I dont think there are any steals like Hamilton but there is always going to be some talent out there.

Mike MacDonald from the Blue Jays - groundball machine but struggles vs. lefties. He might be able to work with that with Dunn/Mazzone. Doesn't really give up HRs either. I've mentioned him before...

Plus I work with his father... :)

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Mike%20MacDonald&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453973

[HeatherC12]

I would like to see us utilize the Rule V draft this year, to either pick up a back up catcher, a back up outfielder, or a longman or 6th/7th reliever.

I dont think there are any steals like Hamilton but there is always going to be some talent out there.

I hate bringing up the Reds all the time (I'll try to stop doing that so much but they do have similarities with the Orioles!), but they actually did a really good thing this past year with that draft that the O's should think about this year. The Reds ended up with two Rule V guys and BOTH of them will probably be with the club for a good long time after the way they performed this season. In addition to Josh Hamilton, they also got Jared Burton, a relief pitcher of all things. He started off the year kind of slow but totally took over pitching that horrible 8th inning that gave the Reds fits all season and established himself as an awesome set up guy and possible future closer with his performances in the second half of the season. If the O's can do something smart in the Rule V this offseason, they could find someone like him or even another talent similar to Josh Hamilton. :)

[ChaosLex]

If we just dealt our best pitcher and arguably our best veteran player along with a guy who hit nearly 20 Home Runs with nearly 80 RBI's after missing a month of the season..do you really believe that even with some quality prospects...we can be that much better someday..do you really???
I can see moving Tejada, Cabrera and trying to get out from under some contracts(Gibbons and maybe Mora) but the liklihood of us making all of the moves above sounds desperate..and panic button stuff. No way we make all those moves...unless Macphail is a complete idiot. I GUARENTEE WE WONT MOVE BEDARD..AND ROBERTS..I GUARENTEE IT..
Sports guy....ask your doctor and see what Paxil can do or you!

I'm sorry Roy, but I'm of the mindset that everyone must go. We're obviously not winning with guys like Tejada, Bedard, and Brob, so what good does it do us to hold onto them?

Make no mistake, I'd love to keep Bedard, which is why I hope they offer him the 4/48 extension that BigBird mentioned earlier this week. However, if he should decline this offer (which he likely will), you need to sell high.

[TommyD4207]

I gotta side with rshack on this one.

I think that people get a little bit caught up in the sound bite logic a bit too much. "Blow it up" seems to take on an entirely new meaning than you would ever think. If you were to ask random fans if they're teams will "blow it up" in the offseason, and it was a team like the Red Sox, they'd laugh at you. But if you asked them if they were planning on doing this:


objectively gauge the state of the franchise, trade away any and all valuable pieces in return for the right package that'll help to move forward, while putting emphasis on undervalued players and market inefficiencies, refusing to sign stopgap players, religiously staying away from signing players because they just happen to be available that offseason and we have a hole there, steadfastly avoiding signing free agents that will sap the team of draft picks, and constantly looking to invigorate the whole organization's future by acquiring talented youth

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1045166&highlight=objectively+shorthand#post1045166

Would any of them say, "No, my team won't do that." That goes for any team out there. Whether it be the White Sox, Pirates, Twins or Red Sox, every fan would say that's a great mission statement for any team.

Saying that you want your brass to look at your team objectively is not unique. Sorry, but it's not.

Every team is willing to trade pretty much any guy in the right deal. Because, well, the right deal is the right deal. You could argue that some guy are so valuable that no "right deal" exists and I would probably agree with you, but everyone is willing to deal guys in the right deal.

And most teams try to stay away from signing a guy that will cost them a draft pick unless they are losing some in free agency so it's a wash, like how the Red Sox typically operate. But plenty of teams like the Twins try to do otherwise.

Every team tries to draft well. I mean, that's the biggest given in this whole thing. How does that fall under a "blow up" classification?

And of course every team tries to acquire talented youth. Whether it be a big market team like the Red Sox with Jacoby Ellsbury or the Yankees with Joba Chamberlain.

This school of thought is not unique. It's actually want anyone would call common sense. Saying that's a "blow it up" scenario is just crazy. Blow it up implies a firesale. If you said that any team blew it up over the offseason you'd get looked at like you were crazy.

What the Florida Marlins did twice in recent memory, that's a blow up.

What the Minnesota Twins, Oakland A's, LA Angels, Milwaukee Brewers San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, and Arizona Diamondbacks did in recent memory? Certainly not.

I guess you could argue the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, and Arizona Diamondbacks did, but they really didn't.

A widespread misconception is that he acquired Travis Hafner in a blockbuster deal. Last I checked, Ryan Drese and Einar Diaz don't exactly count as "blockbuster." Neither of them played in baseball in 2007, maybe they work at Blockbuster currently.

Bartolo Colon was one big deal. One. Trading away one bigtime guy doesn't classify as a blow up scenario. In winter of 2004, the Oakland A's traded away two aces. Nobody would've said they blew it up.

The Tigers have ran themselves very in my humblest of opinions. A good steady combination of free agents and development of young arms. Lot of homegrown talent.

What's the combination behind most good teams? Homegrown talent. What have just about none of them done? Traded away a ton. The Marlins traded away a ton last year and everyone expected them to win 40 games and they didn't and a lot of people were impressed. They only won 76 games though. Just throwing that out there. They won 70 this year. Again, just throwing that out there.

[Ruzious]

The real key to success in the future is how long McPhail stays with the O's. If he leaves, it will be because Angelos didn't give him full autonomy, and if that happens - the O's will continue to be a doormat.

[bigbird]

This will not be a blow up fire sale. You can bet the farm on that!

[RZNJ]

It seems like everyone expects MacPhail to tear apart the team, make all these trades now, and totally rebuild it this off-season. I suspect that the rebuild will be done gradually over the course of the next 2-3 years beginning with a trade or two this off-season, a FA signing or two, and cutting some of the dead wood from the roster. I fully expect Tejada to be traded, just as I fully expect Roberts and Bedard to still be here next year.


I think it's a small minority who really believe that. I happen to agree with your scenario.

[AgentOrange]

This will not be a blow up fire sale. You can bet the farm on that!

Well what is realistic? It seems like the major pieces that could be traded are at pretty high value (Bedard and Brob). IF we do things the way MacPhail wants and rebuild, these guys will be on the downside of production by the time we turn it around. I don't see how Miggi's value could be any higher than it is right now. At least not moving forward. If anything, his value will drop over the next year and we don't get much in return. It will be hard to pull this off, but we need to stop trying to win now and rebuild at the same time, it doesn't work unles your "win now" bunch has talent, which it doesn't/

[Tomkingsize]

The Mets are one team...Milledge would be fine...I would certainly take Pelfrey or Humber but i am not sure they are as good as many here think.

Would the Cubs want BRob? I think Dave said they like DeRosa there...If they would be interested, would a Pie and Mashall deal work?

I would think the Padres would be interested but if we get LaRoche in a deal for Bedard, that takes away what we could get back from them.(Headley would be target)

The Rockies could have interest in BRob as well.

I just through out those 3 trades but at the end of the day, this is what we need to come up with:

CF
SS
third base
2nd
1st
pitching

In other words, we need everything because well, we have nothing.

YOU GOT IT, MAN!!!

:002_sbiggrin:

[Tomkingsize]

This will not be a blow up fire sale. You can bet the farm on that!

If this is indeed the case, then they've learned absolutely nothing.

The term 'fire sale' implies we'd be giving quality away.

If we get some of the guys that SG mentions (Kershaw, Milledge, Pie, etc.), we'd be doing the right things in terms of building for the future.

[Delduck]

Roy, I haven't read the rest of this thread, but my guess is that you just triggered 2 things:

1. A response of "you just don't get it".
2. A bunch of follow-up posts about specific trade ideas.

This is what always happens when you question the premise.

Here's how I think this works: Take a 100 point scale, where 0 = "doing nothing", and 100 = "cleaning house and trading everydamnbody".
SG thinks 100 is the One True Path. I think this is because he views this as a commodities problem, one in which being attached to anybody is a flaw, and one in which all short-term concerns are red herrings that must be bravely ignored. "Sell that commodity while it's high" is all that matters. He does not see baseball as anything beyond that.
Nobody but nobody favors 0. But if you don't take the 100 position, some folks assume you do. No middle ground is permitted. Moderation is labeled as stupid half-measures that are equivalent to 0. So, even if you would place yourself at 60 or 75 or 80, you are treated as if you are advocating 0. It doesn't matter what you say, it's all or nothing, so if you don't say 100, then you're accused of supporting 0. (It's very similar to our modern politics ;-)
Personally, I think there are good things about being attached to what you have, if you show good sense and are selective about it. I also think there are practical reasons which dictate that you cannot and should not do everything at once. But this is always met with a response of "you don't get it".
I think that SG has some good insights, but I think there are things that he doesn't get either, such as the value of stable attachments and the need for steady, gradual improvement. But, since he doesn't even see these things, he truly believes that I am somehow blind. He doesn't get that I'm seeing some real things too, things that he fails to see. His only explanation for disagreement is that the other person fails to see things with his laser-like clarity, and therefore just don't get it.
I think it comes down to some folks not being able to recognize their blind spots. We all have blind spots. It's just that SG thinks that any disagreement with him is proof that everybody else has a blind spot. He doesn't believe that he might have some too. So, if you see something he doesn't, it's a case of you failing to see properly. In the meantime, he gets a lot of support. I think part of this is because he's selling answers that are both easy and decisive. And easy-yet-decisive answers always have some audience (which is another way in which this is similar to our modern politics).

You are spot on with this. It seems as if you take a middle ground stance you are branded a narrow minded short sighted idiot, and can't see the big picture.

I for one am very optimistic about this off season. The 07 season is behind us and a new season is just beginning. Trades to be made, deals to be done, and soon everyone will be 0 -0 again and you just never know if this is the year we get some good breaks:002_sbiggrin: We have a new guy in charge, and I for one have no reason to doubt him. What moves he has made thus far have been good ones. Who knows what AM can do for the O's, he has a very rough row to hoe, but as long as he takes his time does the right things at the right time(NOT WHEN WE WANT THEM DONE) I feel he can bring the Birds back to the top.

And rshackelford I am glad you are around. Some guys don't want/like to here sound reasoning, but I find your posts very sound and well thought out.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Roy, I haven't read the rest of this thread, but my guess is that you just triggered 2 things:

1. A response of "you just don't get it".
2. A bunch of follow-up posts about specific trade ideas.

This is what always happens when you question the premise.

Here's how I think this works: Take a 100 point scale, where 0 = "doing nothing", and 100 = "cleaning house and trading everydamnbody".
SG thinks 100 is the One True Path. I think this is because he views this as a commodities problem, one in which being attached to anybody is a flaw, and one in which all short-term concerns are red herrings that must be bravely ignored. "Sell that commodity while it's high" is all that matters. He does not see baseball as anything beyond that.
Nobody but nobody favors 0. But if you don't take the 100 position, some folks assume you do. No middle ground is permitted. Moderation is labeled as stupid half-measures that are equivalent to 0. So, even if you would place yourself at 60 or 75 or 80, you are treated as if you are advocating 0. It doesn't matter what you say, it's all or nothing, so if you don't say 100, then you're accused of supporting 0. (It's very similar to our modern politics ;-)
Personally, I think there are good things about being attached to what you have, if you show good sense and are selective about it. I also think there are practical reasons which dictate that you cannot and should not do everything at once. But this is always met with a response of "you don't get it".
I think that SG has some good insights, but I think there are things that he doesn't get either, such as the value of stable attachments and the need for steady, gradual improvement. But, since he doesn't even see these things, he truly believes that I am somehow blind. He doesn't get that I'm seeing some real things too, things that he fails to see. His only explanation for disagreement is that the other person fails to see things with his laser-like clarity, and therefore just don't get it.
I think it comes down to some folks not being able to recognize their blind spots. We all have blind spots. It's just that SG thinks that any disagreement with him is proof that everybody else has a blind spot. He doesn't believe that he might have some too. So, if you see something he doesn't, it's a case of you failing to see properly. In the meantime, he gets a lot of support. I think part of this is because he's selling answers that are both easy and decisive. And easy-yet-decisive answers always have some audience (which is another way in which this is similar to our modern politics).

I'm reading from this post that you believe in some middle ground approach, a "66.6" if you will. SG has taken a lot of time to lay out possible routes for the O's to take. What exactly would your plan entail? What is a 66.6?

My worry is that if you trade one of Tejada/Roberts, you have to trade the other, or we'll be stuck in neutral like the past decade. Furthermore, if you trade Tejada AND Roberts, Bedard will likely want to leave. Forgetting the rest of the team for a moment, it seems to me like you have to go firesale or big spending win-now.

[Fan4Life]

This will not be a blow up fire sale. You can bet the farm on that!

Would trading Tejada, DCab, Roberts, and perhaps Bedard constitute a fire sale?

[Dr. FLK]

This will not be a blow up fire sale. You can bet the farm on that!

In other words, we should expect no significant improvements/changes to be made?

[Moose Milligan]

And rshackelford I am glad you are around. Some guys don't want/like to here sound reasoning, but I find your posts very sound and well thought out.

True that.

[Fan4Life]

And rshackelford I am glad you are around. Some guys don't want/like to here sound reasoning, but I find your posts very sound and well thought out.

I agree with this. And I appreciate the time and effort RShak spends excersizing his opinion here especially due to the fact that much of the time it is done in response to disagreements (some more constuctive than others) and it would be much easier for him not to post at all and just let things be.

[wildcard]

Sorry Wild Card, I just noticed that I posted about the same thing you did.....

"If there is one thing that the last two months have brought home, you have no chance in this division if you don't pitch well," he said. "When I first came here, I said that pitching is 85 percent of the game. In this division, it might be 90 percent. When Erik Bedard started, we were 19-9. Good pitching is going to thwart real good teams. It is my belief now that this franchise is really going to have to focus on pitching."


I think this is the most telling quote in the article. Because of this, I can also see McPhail hanging on to Bedard. If I had to guess what his plan will be, I would guess that he tries the following....
:Trade Tejada and Cabrera for the best combination of young pitching prospects offered.
:Try to sign Bedard long term. If he can't get it done this offseason, I think he will wait until next offseason hoping that Bedard will a new outlook on the franchise and want to sign an extension.
:Try to sign Tori Hunter to replace Tejada's bat
:Try to release and or trade the following... Mora, Gibbons, Payton

Sounds like we agree. It sounds like Bedard will stay.

I don't think Hunter will come to Baltimore though. He sounds Texas bound.

[bigbird]

As bad as the O's were this year, just try to imagine how much worse they'll be if they lose Tejada, Bedard, and Roberts to free agency in a couple years, and get nothing but draft picks in return.

Or if you traded them and ended up with Santana and Aybar.

[Dr. FLK]

Or if you traded them and ended up with Santana and Aybar.

So those are the only options? Trade all 3 of our best players for nothing but Santana and Aybar or lose them for nothing? If we can't get a great return for those 3, then we hired a complete idiot to run the show.

[Mackus]

Or if you traded them and ended up with Santana and Aybar.Right, there are two options which turn the team into an even worse franchise:

keep Bedard, Roberts, Tejada, and others and lose them as FAs in two years
trade those guys and get burnt on every single deal

There are a couple options which put us at a slightly better franchise but still have no realistic hopes of competing:
keep Bedard, Roberts, Tejada and others and add a couple FAs, perhaps even one huge name guy
trade those guys and get burn on all but one deal

There is only one option which I think realistically allows us to compete, both in the near and distant future, and that is to trade off almost all the talent. I'm ok with holding onto Bedard if you can extend him, but the rest need to be shopped. They are all at or past their primes and almost certainly won't be major impact players on any contending Orioles teams. They could be role players, but not the guys leading the charge.

[wildcard]

Right, there are two options which turn the team into an even worse franchise:

keep Bedard, Roberts, Tejada, and others and lose them as FAs in two years
trade those guys and get burnt on every single deal

There are a couple options which put us at a slightly better franchise but still have no realistic hopes of competing:
keep Bedard, Roberts, Tejada and others and add a couple FAs, perhaps even one huge name guy
trade those guys and get burn on all but one deal

There is only one option which I think realistically allows us to compete, both in the near and distant future, and that is to trade off almost all the talent. I'm ok with holding onto Bedard if you can extend him, but the rest need to be shopped. They are all at or past their primes and almost certainly won't be major impact players on any contending Orioles teams. They could be role players, but not the guys leading the charge.

How soon will Loewen, Olson and Penn be able to fill spots in the rotation? I think that is a huge key to the O's future. If it is soon then the O's can possibly contend with Bedard and Roberts. If it is never, then I agree with your assessment on the timing for contention.

[rolliefingers]

I do have a random question. Aren't there other ways to sign minor league prospect type guys without trading away your own guys? Somehow, Wayne Krivsky keeps finding these good guys for the Reds without giving away the entire farm system and I have no idea how he keeps doing that without causing huge holes anywhere. :eek:

I assume you're referring to Josh Hamilton and Brandon Phillips? Hamilton was a Rule V selection, and it's been said that the Reds has an inside track on him due to some prior connection (scout, coach, I don't remember exactly).

Phillips was a talented guy who had yet to put it together. The Reds got him for a PTBNL.

Both were extremely shrewd moves (and helped balance out the sheer idiocy of trading Kearns and Lopez to WAS). The only trades this team makes are veterans-for-prospects (e.g. Trax - no beef there) or vice versa (Maine/Julio for Benson). Even the CPat trade - an unqualified success - was two scrubs for a MAJOR LEAGUER, not a prospect.

I would be shocked if the Orioles started trading middling prospects for guys like Phillips (or Jack Hannahan, like the A's did).

It's a very smart strategy, and we are the opposite of smart.

[rolliefingers]

You overrate Humber IMO.

I like him a lot more than Pelfrey, that's for sure.

[rolliefingers]

I agree with this. And I appreciate the time and effort RShak spends excersizing his opinion here especially due to the fact that much of the time it is done in response to disagreements (some more constuctive than others) and it would be much easier for him not to post at all and just let things be.

You know what I would like? If Shack took all the time he spends, um, courageously battling logical fallacies, and spent it, oh I don't know, actually talking about baseball. Radical concept, to be sure.

If all you bring to the table is decontructing others' arguments, but have no arguments of your own, what good are you doing, exactly?

[Sports Guy]

You know what I would like? If Shack took all the time he spends, um, courageously battling logical fallacies, and spent it, oh I don't know, actually talking about baseball. Radical concept, to be sure.

If all you bring to the table is decontructing others' arguments, but have no arguments of your own, what good are you doing, exactly?

Well Shack has said...hire good baseball people. So, he did contribute some kind of a plan. :rolleyes:

Bigbird...You have said you don't think they will blow it up...What happens if they put the money on the table for Bedard and he says no thanks?

Does that change things for them?

[rolliefingers]

Bigbird...You have said you don't think they will blow it up...What happens if they put the money on the table for Bedard and he says no thanks?

Does that change things for them?

Excellent question, BB.

[AgentOrange]

I assume you're referring to Josh Hamilton and Brandon Phillips? Hamilton was a Rule V selection, and it's been said that the Reds has an inside track on him due to some prior connection (scout, coach, I don't remember exactly).

Phillips was a talented guy who had yet to put it together. The Reds got him for a PTBNL.

Both were extremely shrewd moves (and helped balance out the sheer idiocy of trading Kearns and Lopez to WAS). The only trades this team makes are veterans-for-prospects (e.g. Trax - no beef there) or vice versa (Maine/Julio for Benson). Even the CPat trade - an unqualified success - was two scrubs for a MAJOR LEAGUER, not a prospect.

I would be shocked if the Orioles started trading middling prospects for guys like Phillips (or Jack Hannahan, like the A's did).

It's a very smart strategy, and we are the opposite of smart.

Well I think it is smart if it works out. If not, you have more holes on the roster. I think we are at the point where we should make some moves such as these, but maybe we did (Knott, House and such.) But we didn't use them correctly. So even if we did make those moves, who knows how it will turn out.

It is a tough situation. I would rather just go with younger guys than Hamilton type players, IMO. There is a better chance of success with younger guys I would assume.

[rolliefingers]

Well I think it is smart if it works out. If not, you have more holes on the roster. I think we are at the point where we should make some moves such as these, but maybe we did (Knott, House and such.) But we didn't use them correctly. So even if we did make those moves, who knows how it will turn out.

It is a tough situation. I would rather just go with younger guys than Hamilton type players, IMO. There is a better chance of success with younger guys I would assume.

Hamilton was only 25 this season, with insane potential.

Plus, how would you have holes in the roster by trading a middling prospect for a guy like Phillips? If it works out, you have a 30-HR-hitting 2B; if not, you try something else.

That's what we should have done with House and Knott, but I digress.

[bobmc]

You know what I would like? If Shack took all the time he spends, um, courageously battling logical fallacies, and spent it, oh I don't know, actually talking about baseball. Radical concept, to be sure.

If all you bring to the table is decontructing others' arguments, but have no arguments of your own, what good are you doing, exactly?

Hey, hey! That's all I do too! I do compliment a few folks for their candor and perspicacity, but just sayin'! There's something to be said for us "deconstructors". ;) We try to keep you thinkers honest :) - separate the wheat from the chaff and stuff like that....

Now El Gordo - that's another story....:p

Back to the thread topic......

[bigbird]

Well what is realistic? It seems like the major pieces that could be traded are at pretty high value (Bedard and Brob). IF we do things the way MacPhail wants and rebuild, these guys will be on the downside of production by the time we turn it around. I don't see how Miggi's value could be any higher than it is right now. At least not moving forward. If anything, his value will drop over the next year and we don't get much in return. It will be hard to pull this off, but we need to stop trying to win now and rebuild at the same time, it doesn't work unles your "win now" bunch has talent, which it doesn't/

I think we're looking to acquire younger talents like Milledge vs suspects. I can see us dealing Tejada, Hernandez and maybe Cabrera. I can also see us dealing someone line Penn or Liz.

[rolliefingers]

I think we're looking to acquire younger talents like Milledge vs suspects. I can see us dealing Tejada, Hernandez and maybe Cabrera. I can also see us dealing someone line Penn or Liz.

...But not Roberts or Bedard?

[Sports Guy]

I think we're looking to acquire younger talents like Milledge vs suspects. I can see us dealing Tejada, Hernandez and maybe Cabrera. I can also see us dealing someone line Penn or Liz.

IE...ML ready guys who have proven to be good minor leaguers?

That makes sense...I think that is what most of us have advocated.

[rolliefingers]

Also, BB, what happens if Bedard rejects our extension offer?

[rolliefingers]

IE...ML ready guys who have proven to be good minor leaguers?

That makes sense...I think that is what most of us have advocated.

Exactly. I don't think anyone has wanted to go after some team's A-ball prospects.

[AgentOrange]

Hamilton was only 25 this season, with insane potential.

Sure, he does have potential. I suppose I am only looking to go after lower risk type of players for my 25 man roster.


The doorbell rang at 2 in the morning last October. Mary Holt trudged to the door, looked through the peephole and saw a stranger on her porch.
Holt, 75, slowly opened the front door. It was as if she saw a ghost. The boy had lost 40 pounds. He hadn't slept in four days. His face was ashen. His cheeks were sunken. His eyes were glazed and distant. His body was trembling.

"Hello, granny," he mumbled.

Josh Hamilton, the former All-American baseball hero of Raleigh, N.C., was a junkie looking for shelter.

Today, seven years after the Tampa Bay Devil Rays made the outfielder the No. 1 overall pick in the June Free Agent Draft, Hamilton is a recovering drug addict looking for one last chance.

He hasn't played an organized game of baseball since July 10, 2002, when he his shoulder and elbow and drifted into the drug scene to relieve the boredom from being sidelined.


http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/devilrays/2006-06-06-hamilton-cover_x.htm

I mean sure he has the opportunity to go far with baseball and really help a club out. Yet, this is one of those opportunities that worked out that very well could have flopped. He was a rule 5, which means he has to stay on the roster the entire year in order to keep him. What if the start isn't stroybook? How long do you keep him on the roster? You have to almost play said person everyday to really see if they are going to turn the corner. If we do a full out rebuild, go for it. With the team we have now? Not a realistic possibilty. I mean I understand what you are saying in this matter, I just don't agree it is the right approach to go that high risk.

[Sports Guy]

CHanging this thread around a little bit.....It does seem that MacPhail gets it based on the quote from the original post in this thread.

However, the article also talks about him filling in holes in the pen and how they don't know what direction to go in yet. How is it possible that you don't know?

There is only 2 directions to go in:

1) Do what you can to realistically compete...You have to make up 25-30 games. So, good luck with that.

2) Rebuild

That is it....There is no middle ground...At least there shouldn't be. Middle ground is what they have been doing for 10 years.

[rolliefingers]

Everyone knows about Hamilton's drug problems. As I mentioned, the Reds had some inside knowledge on him. Taking him in the Rule V wasn't a shot in the dark, it was a calculated risk. They were confident that he was finally clean, and apparently he is.

I'm not berating the O's for not getting him, just saying that there's talent out there to be had, if you work hard enough to find and evaluate it.

[AgentOrange]

Well to add to that, maybe this was the season the O's Brass needed to ensure a rebuilding process of some sorts.

I would rather keep Bedard and Brob if we are going to get rid of Tejada and Hernandez type players on this team for players like Milledge.

I could see Hernandez to the Mets this offseason for Milledge. We would need a catcher to fill in the gap though before Weiters comes aboard. I don't think it would be that hard to find a catcher to start for us that could do what Hernandez did for us this season.

I would rather see Ramon here because I think he will have a nice bounce back year once he heals up, but if we can get younger, lets do it.

[AgentOrange]

Everyone knows about Hamilton's drug problems. As I mentioned, the Reds had some inside knowledge on him. Taking him in the Rule V wasn't a shot in the dark, it was a calculated risk. They were confident that he was finally clean, and apparently he is.

I'm not berating the O's for not getting him, just saying that there's talent out there to be had, if you work hard enough to find and evaluate it.

Sure, there is talent out there for sure. Look at Pena. If we go the direction of a rebuild of some sorts, we will have more opportunities for players like that. I just don't want to go the way of Hamilton type players, that's all.

I would rather get someone without off the field problems to deal with, but rather mechanical type issues that can be corrected by a coaching staff.

We might be saying the same thing for all I know.

[rolliefingers]

Sure, there is talent out there for sure. Look at Pena. If we go the direction of a rebuild of some sorts, we will have more opportunities for players like that. I just don't want to go the way of Hamilton type players, that's all.

I would rather get someone without off the field problems to deal with, but rather mechanical type issues that can be corrected by a coaching staff.

We might be saying the same thing for all I know.

I'd rather get talent. Period.

Look at Milton Bradley - he's gotten a bad rap for years, but he puts up numbers. And he was a major sparkplug for the Pads, so it's not like he was screwing up the clubhouse. I think a lot of guys get the "headcase" label who don't really deserve it. I want talent, not choirboys.

[Miller192]

This will not be a blow up fire sale. You can bet the farm on that!

I don't think it will either, but I wouldn't want to bet the farm on it. There's been a lot of reports that AM wants to put his stamp on this offseason. He might do just that.

[tywright]

I'd rather get talent. Period.

Look at Milton Bradley - he's gotten a bad rap for years, but he puts up numbers. And he was a major sparkplug for the Pads, so it's not like he was screwing up the clubhouse. I think a lot of guys get the "headcase" label who don't really deserve it. I want talent, not choirboys.

Milton Bradley is just a more offensive version of Jay Payton...in both senses of "offensive"

[bigbird]

IE...ML ready guys who have proven to be good minor leaguers?

That makes sense...I think that is what most of us have advocated.

I think we're looking at young guys already on major league rosters. Not a player without any big league experience,.

[Sports Guy]

I think we're looking at young guys already on major league rosters. Not a player without any big league experience,.

We may be but realistically, you aren't always going to get these guys.

The Orioles shouldn't go into anything thinking this is the type of guy we have to get.

They need to add top major league ready talent..Whether that means guys already in the majors or guys you could be.

We don't need to add too many guys that are going to be close to arbitration already...Get a few cheap years out of them.

[rolliefingers]

I think we're looking at young guys already on major league rosters. Not a player without any big league experience,.

BB, what happens if Bedard doesn't sign an extension?

[tywright]

BB, what happens if Bedard doesn't sign an extension?

Hopefully common sense prevails and they trade him for a huge package

[AgentOrange]

I'd rather get talent. Period.

Look at Milton Bradley - he's gotten a bad rap for years, but he puts up numbers. And he was a major sparkplug for the Pads, so it's not like he was screwing up the clubhouse. I think a lot of guys get the "headcase" label who don't really deserve it. I want talent, not choirboys.

I would rather stay away from players like Bradley. I am suprised that you would just dismiss clubhouse issues bringing clubs down. I would point to the Orioles this year as a prime example of that. We noticed first hand how a bad clubhouse can really ruin things. I would say that the Bad Rap that MB recieved is well deserved. I mean he may cost his team a chance to go to the playoffs because he couldn't block out what an ump is saying to him. Right or wrong, he shouldn't have been that excited over the situation, enough for him to tear an ACL.

He hasn't stayed with a club longer than two years, and with all of that talent, you would think teams would keep him, wouldn't you?

We are not talking about terrible organizations either, we are talking about Cleveland, Oakland and the Dodgers. Teams that have good organizational depth and make smart baseball descisions.

I dunno, I just have a different opinion on this matter than you. Its not a big deal, I sure as heck want talent out there too, I would just rather see guys without off field or clubhouse problems. I miss the Oriole way and being proud to be an Orioles fan.

[rolliefingers]

Hopefully common sense prevails and they trade him for a huge package

I'm just gonna keep asking him until he answers. :)

[Delduck]

CHanging this thread around a little bit.....It does seem that MacPhail gets it based on the quote from the original post in this thread.

However, the article also talks about him filling in holes in the pen and how they don't know what direction to go in yet. How is it possible that you don't know?

There is only 2 directions to go in:

1) Do what you can to realistically compete...You have to make up 25-30 games. So, good luck with that.

2) Rebuild

That is it....There is no middle ground...At least there shouldn't be. Middle ground is what they have been doing for 10 years.


Why does it have to be so black and white? Why can't they wait and see with Erik and BRob? We still have them for 2 more years, they are both fairly young and have several more productive years left. What is so wrong with trading Miggy , DCab get a couple good players in return, cut some of the dead weight, sign some of the low cost guys you and others say every year we should sign, let the season start and go from there? If the team responds well and a couple of our other pitchers start to turn the corner, there is a chance Erik and BRob will start to change their tune. If not then we can still get a kings ransom for Erik, and you have said on many occasions it is best to trade pitching at the deadline any way. And maybe even BRob at the deadline also.

And I have a really hard time believing it is so easy to come up with a plan of action when you took over the job in the middle of the season. I would assume that they need to have a site down with PA to go over how much money they will have to spend. And as much as we don't like it it is still PA team and does and should have some say on the direction of the team. I am sure they need to wait and see who's options have/have not been picked up. The health of some of our players major/minor needs to be weighed in to their plans. I am sure they have some ideas of how they want to go about this off season, but unfortunately for us, they just are not going to come out and say. So we get told we are going to have some meetings on what direction we are going to take. Nothing earth shattering, but to be expected. In fact I would be upset if they came out and told the world their plans for this off season.

[tywright]

We need to talk with Minnesota about Garza, Baker, or Slowey.

[davearm]

I think we're looking at young guys already on major league rosters. Not a player without any big league experience,.
I think this is spot on.

Seeing a demonstrated ability to hit/pitch at the bigleague level is pretty important to GMs these days. Minor league stats are only worth so much.

For example I'd bet the big Teixeira trade doesn't happen if Jarrod Saltalamacchia hadn't gotten the ABs he got this year with the Braves.

MacPhail will want guys that have a track record in the bigs, even if it's a short one.

[tywright]

Why does it have to be so black and white? Why can't they wait and see with Erik and BRob? We still have them for 2 more years, they are both fairly young and have several more productive years left.


The longer you wait then the less value you get back in return. The closer they are to becoming a FA they less value they have.

[davearm]

BB, what happens if Bedard doesn't sign an extension?
Then trading him at some point in the future becomes a more likely outcome.

I highly doubt trading Bedard this offseason is even on MacPhail's radar, or will ever get on his radar. Just look at his quotes about the importance of pitching. Dealing Bedard will be a last resort option, and with two years remaining before free agency, the situation is nowhere near last resort status.

[rolliefingers]

I think this is spot on.

Seeing a demonstrated ability to hit/pitch at the bigleague level is pretty important to GMs these days. Minor league stats are only worth so much.

For example I'd bet the big Teixeira trade doesn't happen if Jarrod Saltalamacchia hadn't gotten the ABs he got this year with the Braves.

MacPhail will want guys that have a track record in the bigs, even if it's a short one.

I'm sorry, but that's just absurd. Salty was not a good prospect until he got 141 ABs?

[davearm]

I'm sorry, but that's just absurd. Salty was not a good prospect until he got 141 ABs?
He was *only* a prospect until he got 141 ABs and showed that he could hit in the bigleagues.

[Delduck]

The longer you wait then the less value you get back in return. The closer they are to becoming a FA they less value they have.

And say we do some how start to turn things around and they have a change of heart and are willing to to sign extensions. Erik's value will not drop much if any between now and the trade deadline, with the exception of injury. Maybe I just see these guys still preforming well 5-6 years down the road and can be very valuable parts to our team now and then, and 2 less holes we have to fill. I have a ton of faith that AM can turn things around, and while I am not completely opposed to blowing it up, I think a controlled blow up maybe a better option.

[AgentOrange]

I think this is spot on.

Seeing a demonstrated ability to hit/pitch at the bigleague level is pretty important to GMs these days. Minor league stats are only worth so much.

For example I'd bet the big Teixeira trade doesn't happen if Jarrod Saltalamacchia hadn't gotten the ABs he got this year with the Braves.

MacPhail will want guys that have a track record in the bigs, even if it's a short one.

I like this approach. I would think this would lower the risk of the players we are getting, but it will also lower the amount of players back we would be getting.

Hopefully we make some low risk/high reward moves this offseason.

[Crazysilver03]

We need to talk with Minnesota about Garza, Baker, or Slowey.

I highly doubt the Twins trade any of them for anything we could offer.

[Hank Scorpio]

Then trading him at some point in the future becomes a more likely outcome.

I highly doubt trading Bedard this offseason is even on MacPhail's radar, or will ever get on his radar. Just look at his quotes about the importance of pitching. Dealing Bedard will be a last resort option, and with two years remaining before free agency, the situation is nowhere near last resort status.

This is most likely correct, but barring an extension, which ain't happenin'... you have to gauge how much Bedard's service time weighs into his trade value. Honestly, I don't think you lose all that much by not trading him this offseason. If you have a team in the middle of a pennant race, adding a guy like Bedard might be worth more to them then.

In terms of the big picture, I think the million dollar question is simple. How important is it to win while rebuilding, and really, is it POSSIBLE to win while rebuilding with your scouting and development team as currently constructed?

Eh........................................

There are lots of major questions to be asked & answered along the way.

[tywright]

I highly doubt the Twins trade any of them for anything we could offer.

Well one of them will be traded this offseason. We might as well inquire

[TommyD4207]

I'd rather get talent. Period.

Look at Milton Bradley - he's gotten a bad rap for years, but he puts up numbers. And he was a major sparkplug for the Pads, so it's not like he was screwing up the clubhouse. I think a lot of guys get the "headcase" label who don't really deserve it. I want talent, not choirboys.

Who's to say that Milton Bradley is/was not a clubhouse cancer this year?

Last I checked, the Oakland A's traded him. Billy Beane typically doesn't just release guys with good stats just for a tiny concern about their attitude. You could argue that the Orioles did with Luis Terrero and I'd say that you might be right. Possibly entirely correct.

If you said that the Orioles may value team chemistry a little bit more than necessary, I'd probably agree.

Fact remains, Milton Bradley could've been an entirely very good asset for the Oakland A's statistically.

Billy Beane's followers mostly say that team chemistry is negligible. Whether or not that is a fact, I'm not sure, it's entirely unquantifiable and how any certain human reacts to any other thing is pretty unpredictable unless you know their personality quite well.

Yes, he was hurt a bit before the A's cut him but the fact remains that he had a 292/373/446 line before he got DFA'd. That was right in line with the 818 OPS he had the year before. He finished up the year with a 306/402/545 line. That would be tops for the Orioles. Did Billy Beane really cut somebody that's a +940 OPS contributor for nothing?

Had the Orioles dropped Milton Bradley and then had him go on to post those sort of numbers this board would kill itself from all the hostility that would happen.

It would be the same thing that many on here (not all, but many) say that guys like JR House and Jon Knott should be here instead of others. I have already stated on a couple of occasions that I do not agree with that, but nonetheless, if the Orioles had Shannon Stewart, Mark Kotsay, Jeff Davanon, and Mike Piazza sitting there and they DFA'd Milton Bradley, I would stay away from this board for awhile.

Did Billy Beane believe that Milton Bradley's foul presence amongst the clubhouse was enough to outweigh the difference in production between himself and Kotsay, Stewart, and Davanon? Futhermore, if we were to have Mark Kotsay making 3/16 or Mike Piazza making $8.5M, the board would explode with anger that Milton Bradley was only making $4M and could put up much better production...statistically.

Is Milton Bradley that bad if his bad attitude can weigh down his production to the point that he's no more valuable than a guy who's OPS can is between 578 (Davanon) or at most 739 (Stewart)? I have no idea. Would I bet against it? Not necessarily. Billy Beane has a lot more data than I or probably anybody else on this board does. Furthermore, he has the inside scoop on anything and everything that happens in every situation. Point is, intangibles/team chemistry can be entirely overblown but it can also be incredibly overlooked by those that believe that it is negligible.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm sorry, but that's just absurd. Salty was not a good prospect until he got 141 ABs?

Seeing how the Orioles handle minor leaguers does that surprise you? The Orioles are just a more extreme case of a much wider trend.

There are advantages to be had if you're willing to put your butt on the line.

[Wingman]

Whether you believe we should make major changes or just incremental changes the argument that if we make major changes (trade away Mora, Tejada, Roberts and more) warn that it will be even worse next year to watch a team that will be even worse than this year's team isn't valid... Here's why...

Would you rather have been a fan of the O's this year or the Devil Rays??? Even though the Rays finished with a worse record this year I wish I was a fan of their team right now (at least over the O's). If you followed the Rays this year you got to see alot of young promising players play every day with the hope that with a strong farm system there was at least some hope for the club. What do the O's have??? They have 3 or 4 good players who are still on the upside of their careers and our good players are at their peak or past their prime and not too mention a bunch of over the hill guys (payton Gibbons Baez among others) that we're stuck with untradeable multiyear contracts. Yes, our farm system is improving but most of their best prospects are years away from contributing.

The point is this.. A 100 loss team of youngsters growing and learning with a bright future is more entertaining and easier to live with than the year we've just suffered through...

[mweb]

I think we're looking at young guys already on major league rosters. Not a player without any big league experience,.

If a young guy is already on a major league roster and producing well, it becomes much harder to get him, so I'd rather get more value out of guys who have yet to spend much or anytime in the bigs, but wil be ready to do so next year.

[mweb]

I'm sorry, but that's just absurd. Salty was not a good prospect until he got 141 ABs?

Yeah, I think it's dumb as well, I'll take a thousand plus minor league at bats plus scouting reports over 100-200 major league ab's any day when evaluating a guy. Sure, to have both is nice, but like I just said, if the guy does well in those major league ab's, it's less likely he's traded, and if he is, you have to give up more to get him.

[davearm]

Yeah, I think it's dumb as well, I'll take a thousand plus minor league at bats plus scouting reports over 100-200 major league ab's any day when evaluating a guy. Sure, to have both is nice, but like I just said, if the guy does well in those major league ab's, it's less likely he's traded, and if he is, you have to give up more to get him.
It may or may not be dumb, but the mindset is certainly out there, especially amongst the more conservative/cautious GMs, of which MacPhail is definitely one.

Some guys would rather take a nice level cut and hope for a solid single or double, than swing for the fences and risk striking out.

You guys are dealing with a singles/doubles hitter.

[mweb]

It may or may not be dumb, but the mindset is certainly out there, especially amongst the more conservative/cautious GMs, of which MacPhail is definitely one.

Some guys would rather take a nice level cut and hope for a solid single or double, than swing for the fences and risk striking out.

You guys are dealing with a singles/doubles hitter.

My point is it's not that much less of a risk when we're talking about players with limited ML time, and you have to give up much more to get anyone who has already been very good in the majors, thus considering what is given up, the risk is not higher at all, it actually might be lower.

You have to give up a lot to get a guy like Kemp now, where before the year, you could have had him for less. I'd rather trade Bedard for lets say Kershaw, Hu, and LaRoche than just Kemp and an average prospect. I know Hu and LaRoche had both had lmited major league experience, but it's not like they've torn it up, and we're talking very limited. So it's not really any harder to get them now than it was if they hadn't gotten a cup of coffee.

In that scenario, I don't see Kemp as the less risky option.

[droper]

The Mets are one team...Milledge would be fine...I would certainly take Pelfrey or Humber but i am not sure they are as good as many here think.

Would the Cubs want BRob? I think Dave said they like DeRosa there...If they would be interested, would a Pie and Mashall deal work?

I would think the Padres would be interested but if we get LaRoche in a deal for Bedard, that takes away what we could get back from them.(Headley would be target)

The Rockies could have interest in BRob as well.

I just through out those 3 trades but at the end of the day, this is what we need to come up with:

CF
SS
third base
2nd
1st
pitching

In other words, we need everything because well, we have nothing.
I'd think BRob is exactly Ozzie Guillen's type of player and if Fields and/or Owens make the team no way do they want a third rookie in Richar making the team.
Allegedly Kenny Williams has had interest in Tejada for the last two years, and Juan Uribe may not be brought back for 08.

The two most notable names I've heard about being available from the ChiSox are Garland, with an outside chance of Konerko. I'd be happy with one of these with two lesser prospects for both of them, one of which would have to be a position player.
Assuming they deal Konerko to get closer to matching the $$, this would allow the Sox to put Dye at 1B and have an OF of Podsednik/Owens/Fields and an infield of AJ, Dye, BRob, Tejada and Crede, with Thome DHing. Not a bad bunch of hitters.
Konerko would be under contract for a while to rebuild around with Markakis or could net more prospects from a talent rich team like the Angels or Diamondbacks.

[Sports Guy]

Why does it have to be so black and white?If you aren't competing(and aren't even close), then you should be rebuilding. To me it is black and white.
Why can't they wait and see with Erik and BRob? We still have them for 2 more years, they are both fairly young and have several more productive years left. What is the point of waiting? Give me good reasons why we should wait?
What is so wrong with trading Miggy , DCab get a couple good players in return, cut some of the dead weight, sign some of the low cost guys you and others say every year we should sign, let the season start and go from there? There is nothing wrong with that but that in and of itself is not enough.
If the team responds well and a couple of our other pitchers start to turn the corner, there is a chance Erik and BRob will start to change their tuneBut then they become too expensive and not worth signing.
If not then we can still get a kings ransom for Erik, and you have said on many occasions it is best to trade pitching at the deadline any way. And maybe even BRob at the deadline also.
But why risk it? You are throwing out a lot of what if scenarios. What if Bedard gets hurt and his trade value plummets? What if BRob is the 2006 BRob, not the 2007 version? I don't see the point of waiting unless the offers aren't there and i don't believe that is going to be the case.

And I have a really hard time believing it is so easy to come up with a plan of action when you took over the job in the middle of the seasonI don't....It should be obvious as to which direction this team needs to go in. I
would assume that they need to have a site down with PA to go over how much money they will have to spendI don't care about the money right now...That should be meaningless...We are spending enough.

[Sports Guy]

I'd think BRob is exactly Ozzie Guillen's type of player and if Fields and/or Owens make the team no way do they want a third rookie in Richar making the team.
Allegedly Kenny Williams has had interest in Tejada for the last two years, and Juan Uribe may not be brought back for 08.

The two most notable names I've heard about being available from the ChiSox are Garland, with an outside chance of Konerko. I'd be happy with one of these with two lesser prospects for both of them, one of which would have to be a position player.
Assuming they deal Konerko to get closer to matching the $$, this would allow the Sox to put Dye at 1B and have an OF of Podsednik/Owens/Fields and an infield of AJ, Dye, BRob, Tejada and Crede, with Thome DHing. Not a bad bunch of hitters.
Konerko would be under contract for a while to rebuild around with Markakis or could net more prospects from a talent rich team like the Angels or Diamondbacks.How does this help us get younger, cheaper, better and deeper?

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah, I think it's dumb as well, I'll take a thousand plus minor league at bats plus scouting reports over 100-200 major league ab's any day when evaluating a guy. Sure, to have both is nice, but like I just said, if the guy does well in those major league ab's, it's less likely he's traded, and if he is, you have to give up more to get him.

I don't want too many players with 1000+ minor league at bats. If you're going to be a franchise-changing star you're probably never going to approach 1000 minor league at bats.

But the point is well taken - you'll get better deals on players without major league track records. Either that or Hayden Penn-like records. You know there are GMs out there trying to get 10 cents on the dollar because Penn has a 9.00 ERA in 50 innings.

[davearm]

My point is it's not that much more of a risk when we're talking about players with limited ML time, and you have to give up much more to get anyone who has already been very good in the majors, thus considering what is given up, the risk is not higher at all, it actually might be lower.

You have to give up a lot to get a guy like Kemp now, where before the year, you could have had him for less. I'd rather trade Bedard for lets say Kershaw, Hu, and LaRoche than just Kemp and an average prospect. I know Hu and LaRoche had both had lmited major league experience, but it's not like they've torn it up, and we're talking very limited. So it's not really any harder to get them now than it was if they hadn't gotten a cup of coffee.

In that scenario, I don't see Kemp as the less risky option.
I'm not trying to argue what MacPhail's philosophy should be.

I'm telling you what MacPhail's philosophy is.

[Sapper]

Based on this...



Rest of article here (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-macphail930,0,5928229.story?coll=bal_tab03_layout) .

Kind of echoes what I said a few days ago:


As a follow-up thought. I don't think that dismantling the players is really the #1 issue. We can do that and if we keep doing business the way we have been -- and nothing leads me to believe that we won't -- we will easily have 10 more losing years (and by that point, or before, the BALTIMORE Orioles will cease to exist, IMO).

We need to change the way we do business from top to bottom of the organization. We need:

better talent assessment

better player development

better coaching at all levels

better negotiating techniques with other teams and FA's

a PLAN (one that doesn't think that Danys Baez is the panacea for last seasons woes)

an owner that allows baseball people to make deals in a timely manner and without undue interference

and THEN we need better players on the field

[Delduck]

If you aren't competing(and aren't even close), then you should be rebuilding. To me it is black and white.
So what you are saying is , if we blow it up this year and don't compete we should blow it up again? I know that is not what you are truly saying but there are different ways to rebuild. A controlled blow up is one way. Make the right moves at the right time.

What is the point of waiting? Give me good reasons why we should wait? There is nothing wrong with that but that in and of itself is not enough. But then they become too expensive and not worth signing.

Then by this logic we should never sign our own players once they reach a year or less on their contracts. I would also guess you are never ever going to complain that we failed to sign a prime FA, because they also will be to expensive and not worth signing.

And as to a good reason. Because we still need to be some what competitive. Fans still need something to go to the ball park for. Because Cindy loves Brian:D


But why risk it? You are throwing out a lot of what if scenarios. What if Bedard gets hurt and his trade value plummets? What if BRob is the 2006 BRob, not the 2007 version? I don't see the point of waiting unless the offers aren't there and i don't believe that is going to be the case.

I am throwing out a lot of what if scenarios because NONE of us know what can/will happen, and that is about all you can do in discussions like this. And why risk it?? Why not? Why not take the chance that we can improve and convince them to sign long term contracts? Because if that gamble pays off then we will be so much better off, even with their big 'ol contracts.


I don't....It should be obvious as to which direction this team needs to go in.

There has been plenty of times you have said or inferred that being a GM is easy. It may be obvious to you, and it may be obvious to them but as I said i hope they don't come out and tell the world just to appease you or any other fan.


II don't care about the money right now...That should be meaningless...We are spending enough.

You may not care about money but AM better care. He is not running some fantasy team, and he needs to know just how much he has to spend, how much PA is willing to eat in contracts, if any at all.

[RShack]

That is it....There is no middle ground...At least there shouldn't be. Middle ground is what they have been doing for 10 years.
Oh, great, just what we need: more phony all-or-nothing BS.

What they've been doing for 10 years is not "middle ground".
Failure to build a good organization top-to-bottom is not "middle ground".
Deciding to over-pay for dead-wood vets like Payton is not "middle ground".
Failure to even formulate, much less follow, a coherent organizational plan is not "middle ground".

What they've been doing for 10 years is "poor decision-making in the absence of any apparent coherent plan".
In what possible universe (other than the one inside SG's head) is doing that called "middle ground"?

As usual, in the world inside SG's mind, there are only 2 choices: SG's way or the wrong way.
As usual, SG makes the bogus claim that anything other than his own wacko scheme is "more of what they've been doing for 10 years".

When it comes to making an honest case, "you just don't get it" (tm).
I can't believe how many people fall for this crap...

[NewMarketSean]

Oh, great, just what we need: more phony all-or-nothing BS.

What they've been doing for 10 years is not "middle ground".
Failure to build a good organization top-to-bottom is not "middle ground".
Deciding to over-pay for dead-wood vets like Payton is not "middle ground".
Failure to even formulate, much less follow, a coherent organizational plan is not "middle ground".

What they've been doing for 10 years is "poor decision-making in the absence of any apparent coherent plan".
In what possible universe (other than the one inside SG's head) is doing that called "middle ground"?

As usual, in the world inside SG's mind, there are only 2 choices: SG's way or the wrong way.
As usual, SG makes the bogus claim that anything other than his own wacko scheme is "more of what they've been doing for 10 years".

When it comes to making an honest case, "you just don't get it" (tm).
I can't believe how many people fall for this crap...

The reason SG and I want such drastic actions taken is because we have zero faith in the organization as is. Yeah MacPhail is the new guy but he is one guy. You've got an organization full of incompetence that needs to be dealt with. So its more than just getting younger players. And since it's pretty unlikely that either thing happens, you might as well trade away the veterans we have (because we haven't won with them) and hope that younger players raised in better organization's systems might have some success here.

[Mackus]

Oh, great, just what we need: more phony all-or-nothing BS.

What they've been doing for 10 years is not "middle ground".
Failure to build a good organization top-to-bottom is not "middle ground".
Deciding to over-pay for dead-wood vets like Payton is not "middle ground".
Failure to even formulate, much less follow, a coherent organizational plan is not "middle ground".

What they've been doing for 10 years is "poor decision-making in the absence of any apparent coherent plan".
In what possible universe (other than the one inside SG's head) is doing that called "middle ground"?

As usual, in the world inside SG's mind, there are only 2 choices: SG's way or the wrong way.
As usual, SG makes the bogus claim that anything other than his own wacko scheme is "more of what they've been doing for 10 years".

When it comes to making an honest case, "you just don't get it" (tm).
I can't believe how many people fall for this crap...They certainly have had a plan recently, and it definitely was the "middle ground". Attempting to sign some FAs to build a winner while not trading away any aging talent for young prospects. Just because the plan has been a poor one, does not mean it didn't exist. Every offseason the plan was to try and magically build a winner for the next season, while not going completely overboard for FAs. Most definitely middle ground.

Bad plan and worse execution.

[square634]

They certainly have had a plan recently, and it definitely was the "middle ground". Attempting to sign some FAs to build a winner while not trading away any aging talent for young prospects. Just because the plan has been a poor one, does not mean it didn't exist. Every offseason the plan was to try and magically build a winner for the next season, while not going completely overboard for FAs. Most definitely middle ground.

Bad plan and worse execution.

Yeah, I think some GM had a quote before this year that basically described the O's plan perfectly. It was something like "They constantly straddle this line of 'let's see how many wins we can get this year, and then we'll worry about next year next year.' That doesn't work. You need long term vision to compete."

*That is off of memory, so don't actually quote me on that as being exact.

[Sports Guy]

What they've been doing for 10 years is not "middle ground".
Failure to build a good organization top-to-bottom is not "middle ground".
Deciding to over-pay for dead-wood vets like Payton is not "middle ground".
Failure to even formulate, much less follow, a coherent organizational plan is not "middle ground".Are you really that clueless? You don't think building teams with aging, expensive players with little upside for the STATED PURPOSE of being 500 is not middle ground? Are you kidding me? They are riding the fence, neither competing nor rebuilding.


In what possible universe (other than the one inside SG's head) is doing that called "middle ground"?In the universe of the informed...The opposite of your universe.


As usual, in the world inside SG's mind, there are only 2 choices: SG's way or the wrong way.
As usual, SG makes the bogus claim that anything other than his own wacko scheme is "more of what they've been doing for 10 years".
As usual, you piss away board space with your lack of reason, thought, plan and baseball intelligence.


NOTE: I originally said intelligence but meant to type baseball before it...Rshack, if you read this first and just saw intelligence, i apologize for that.

[NewMarketSean]

Are you really that clueless? You don't think building teams with aging, expensive players with little upside for the STATED PURPOSE of being 500 is not middle ground? Are you kidding me? They are riding the fence, neither competing nor rebuilding.

In the universe of the informed...The opposite of your universe.


As usual, you piss away board space with your lack of reason, thought, plan and intelligence.

Just an awesome post, and one that will probably get you a week's vacation from the boards. I gave you some reps though.

[Flosman]

The reason SG and I want such drastic actions taken is because we have zero faith in the organization as is. Yeah MacPhail is the new guy but he is one guy. You've got an organization full of incompetence that needs to be dealt with. So its more than just getting younger players. And since it's pretty unlikely that either thing happens, you might as well trade away the veterans we have (because we haven't won with them) and hope that younger players raised in better organization's systems might have some success here.

One issue I have is if the FO was so completely inept, which I think it was, I am very happy they did not make a bunch of moves over the past few years that included our few players that are actually better than average. I have no confidence that they would have got any players back that would have helped us now or in the future. If the FO has good baseball people in place and they have the authority to make deals then by all means make the good ones happen no matter who is involved. But the pre-Macphail FO was trying to give us a utility IF and a DCab clone (i.e. all world potential not so good actual pitching) for a near all-star level SS who is still capable of being a MVP and a older not that great 2b and a flawed 1b for a allstar level second baseman. BTW the second deal having to be nixed by PA is why AM is with the club today IMO. The proof of the capabilities of this current FO will be evident over the next 24 months any shorter period and we are just jumping to conclusions. I think AM has made it clear that the O's are going to try to make moves this winter to improve immediately and in the long term, but the truth is we likely will not have that reliable of a read on the success or failure of the efforts for a couple of seasons.

[NewMarketSean]

One issue I have is if the FO was so completely inept, which I think it was, I am very happy they did not make a bunch of moves over the past few years that included our few players that are actually better than average. I have no confidence that they would have got any players back that would have helped us now or in the future. If the FO has good baseball people in place and they have the authority to make deals then by all means make the good ones happen no matter who is involved. But the pre-Macphail FO was trying to give us a utility IF and a DCab clone (i.e. all world potential not so good actual pitching) for a near all-star level SS who is still capable of being a MVP and a older not that great 2b and a flawed 1b for a allstar level second baseman. BTW the second deal having to be nixed by PA is why AM is with the club today IMO. The proof of the capabilities of this current FO will be evident over the next 24 months any shorter period and we are just jumping to conclusions. I think AM has made it clear that the O's are going to try to make moves this winter to improve immediately and in the long term, but the truth is we likely will not have that reliable of a read on the success or failure of the efforts for a couple of seasons.

yeah it's proabably for the best that we did hold onto them for longer. If MacPhail can get Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry for Trax then I would love to see what he could get for Bedard, Tejada and Roberts.

OK, maybe Tejada.

[Sports Guy]

You may not care about money but AM better care. He is not running some fantasy team, and he needs to know just how much he has to spend, how much PA is willing to eat in contracts, if any at all.

I am going to address your post point by point....Have to do it this way because of how you responded to mine:


So what you are saying is , if we blow it up this year and don't compete we should blow it up again? I know that is not what you are truly saying but there are different ways to rebuild. A controlled blow up is one way. Make the right moves at the right time.Blow it up now(actually a lot of should have been done before but they weren't smart enough to figure that out)...The idea is to get the young players in place to add to your existing young core...As these guys develop and you see who fails or what holes you have, you can then carefully sprinkle in the proper FAs around these guys to put you over the top.

Then by this logic we should never sign our own players once they reach a year or less on their contracts. Yes...A lot of times, i wouldn't do this. If the player is very young, that changes things. But for the most part, i do not want to give out 5-8 year deals for guys who are 28-30 years old and that is where most players will be when they are near free agency...Sign them in the first or second year of arbitration and eat up 2 of their FA years...By then, you have likely had that player for their best years and then they can walk for draft picks...Constantly improving the farm system...Reloading from here on out..Not rebuilding(think Atlanta)
I would also guess you are never ever going to complain that we failed to sign a prime FA, because they also will be to expensive and not worth signing.There will be the occassional guy, like Vlad was but for the most part yes, i don't care about the FA that much.

And as to a good reason. Because we still need to be some what competitive. Fans still need something to go to the ball park for. Because Cindy loves BrianLook at some of the reaction for a bad player like Luis Hernandez. People like his excitement and defense and hustle. The fans will get new fan favorites and enjoy watching the young kids play. Losing fans is the least of the worries IMO.


I am throwing out a lot of what if scenarios because NONE of us know what can/will happen, and that is about all you can do in discussions like this. And why risk it?? Why not? Why not take the chance that we can improve and convince them to sign long term contracts? Because if that gamble pays off then we will be so much better off, even with their big 'ol contracts.How do you know that? We can't spend like NY..You have to be smart about things.

Giving 5-8 year deals for 12-20 million a year for guys in their 30s is not a smart thing to do, especially if you are talking about pitching.

I do agree that we need to find out from PA how much, if any, he is willing to eat in contracts.

[Hank Scorpio]

Oh, great, just what we need: more phony all-or-nothing BS.

What they've been doing for 10 years is not "middle ground".
Failure to build a good organization top-to-bottom is not "middle ground".
Deciding to over-pay for dead-wood vets like Payton is not "middle ground".
Failure to even formulate, much less follow, a coherent organizational plan is not "middle ground".

What they've been doing for 10 years is "poor decision-making in the absence of any apparent coherent plan".
In what possible universe (other than the one inside SG's head) is doing that called "middle ground"?

As usual, in the world inside SG's mind, there are only 2 choices: SG's way or the wrong way.
As usual, SG makes the bogus claim that anything other than his own wacko scheme is "more of what they've been doing for 10 years".

When it comes to making an honest case, "you just don't get it" (tm).
I can't believe how many people fall for this crap...

I think that the "plan" the past 3/4 years depended on the pitching staff dominating right away.

They obviously overvalued the talent.

[Gurgi]

They bet the whole stack of chips that Loewen, Benson, Bedard, Wright and Caberra would make us decent. And if they had been healthy most likely we would of been over .500 and much better. It would of kept Guthrie in relief. Burres in relief. That alone would of made the pen better.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Benson and Wright are gone. Caberra looks like he may never be a quality starter. Loewen hasnt proved he can pitch yet. What do we have? Just a lot of Question marks.

I am with Sports Guy on this. I think it is time for a total rebuild. Break it apart and start over.

Eat contracts and trade them for minor prospects. Clear the roster space. Payton is the first to go. I mean Fio could probally hit .250 with 7 homeruns up here. Reimold should come up and we could see what he can do.

Eat Mora's contract and trade him. Make room for Moore. Mora isnt getting any younger. If Moore doesnt work out so what. Mora would be retired before we are competitive anyway.

Roberts should go too. What great trade bait. Not making that much money yet. Great stats. Only contracted for two years. Give up the prospects! I mean how can you go wrong with Roberts?

[DrungoHazewood]

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

I thought it was paved with unbought stuffed dogs. Come to think of it, that's a pretty good nickname for the '07 bullpen.

[Fan4Life]

They certainly have had a plan recently, and it definitely was the "middle ground". Attempting to sign some FAs to build a winner while not trading away any aging talent for young prospects. Just because the plan has been a poor one, does not mean it didn't exist. Every offseason the plan was to try and magically build a winner for the next season, while not going completely overboard for FAs. Most definitely middle ground.

Bad plan and worse execution.

I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them. In that regard they were handcuffed from the beginning. And as it has been pointed out, keeping some core players and adding some FA's to go with them (Middle Ground?) isn't a bad plan just because they have executed it poorly. I made this same case regarding the plan coming into this season. Their plan was to rebuild what everyone could see as the primary flaw on the team, The Bullpen. And while they likely overpaid for a guy or 2, the guys they got were considered reasonable additions to attack the greatest weakness on this team. So for me, the plan was good-decent. The execution was good-decent, the result was horrible. Some of it in their control, and perhaps some not.... had Baez and Ray stayed healthy and had a good-great season, things would have been different.. how much is debatable.. we lost alot of close games this year... but nevertheless, poor execution of a plan doesn't make the plan a bad one. The only situation whereby you can consider Middle Ground not the "best plan" for success is that in keeping the few assets we have, leaves us with little to upgrade from.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them.

What financial constraints? They had a $90M+ payroll. That was in the top 1/3 of the league. The O's had a higher payroll than the Cardinals or the Phillies or the Braves.

[BaltBird 24]

What financial constraints? They had a $90M+ payroll. That was in the top 1/3 of the league. The O's had a higher payroll than the Cardinals or the Phillies or the Braves.

Maybe he's talking about all of the worthless cash he's thrown around to the likes of Jay Gibbons, Jay Payton, Melvin Mora, and others over the past few years.

[NewMarketSean]

I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them. In that regard they were handcuffed from the beginning. And as it has been pointed out, keeping some core players and adding some FA's to go with them (Middle Ground?) isn't a bad plan just because they have executed it poorly. I made this same case regarding the plan coming into this season. Their plan was to rebuild what everyone could see as the primary flaw on the team, The Bullpen. And while they likely overpaid for a guy or 2, the guys they got were considered reasonable additions to attack the greatest weakness on this team. So for me, the plan was good-decent. The execution was good-decent, the result was horrible. Some of it in their control, and perhaps some not.... had Baez and Ray stayed healthy and had a good-great season, things would have been different.. how much is debatable.. we lost alot of close games this year... but nevertheless, poor execution of a plan doesn't make the plan a bad one. The only situation whereby you can consider Middle Ground not the "best plan" for success is that in keeping the few assets we have, leaves us with little to upgrade from.

Financial restrictions? The payroll is $90+ million.

[Delduck]

I am going to address your post point by point....Have to do it this way because of how you responded to mine:

Blow it up now(actually a lot of should have been done before but they weren't smart enough to figure that out)...The idea is to get the young players in place to add to your existing young core...As these guys develop and you see who fails or what holes you have, you can then carefully sprinkle in the proper FAs around these guys to put you over the top.
Yes...A lot of times, i wouldn't do this. If the player is very young, that changes things. But for the most part, i do not want to give out 5-8 year deals for guys who are 28-30 years old and that is where most players will be when they are near free agency...Sign them in the first or second year of arbitration and eat up 2 of their FA years...By then, you have likely had that player for their best years and then they can walk for draft picks...Constantly improving the farm system...Reloading from here on out..Not rebuilding(think Atlanta)There will be the occassional guy, like Vlad was but for the most part yes, i don't care about the FA that much.
Look at some of the reaction for a bad player like Luis Hernandez. People like his excitement and defense and hustle. The fans will get new fan favorites and enjoy watching the young kids play. Losing fans is the least of the worries IMO.

How do you know that? We can't spend like NY..You have to be smart about things.

Giving 5-8 year deals for 12-20 million a year for guys in their 30s is not a smart thing to do, especially if you are talking about pitching.

I do agree that we need to find out from PA how much, if any, he is willing to eat in contracts.


Well I had to respond that way because you chose to pick certain parts of my whole post. And I really could not care less how you type it up as long as you respond in a thought out, respectful manner.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree about our young soon to be FAs. I know we can't spend with the Soxs or Yanks, pretty much nobody can. I would say that large 5 year deals to a potential perennial ace and all star 2nd baseman is money well spent. So you hand out a 5 year deal (don't agree with contracts longer then that) to said ace and 2nd baseman they will be what???? 33-35 when the contract expires. Those are not old ages for a ball player in this day and age.

It is fine to not think that having a player play most if not all his career and loosing fans is least of you worries, but think on this. Why are you an O's fan? I would be willing to bet most of us older fans would say along with the winning tradition, we bonded with our players. You knew year in year out Brooks was going to be there, Belanger (my fav. all time O), Cal, Eddie, Palmer etc.... Today's youth has no such connection with the team, and will change teams at the drop of a hat now days. The future O's fans need the few really good players we have to connect with. If they don't and we keep loosing the stadium will eventually be empty and then the team may be moved. I am not supporting keeping guys who can't play, but when we have a young guys that can become icons, you have to think long and hard and then think some more on moving them.

[hayek]

I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them... Their plan was to rebuild what everyone could see as the primary flaw on the team, The Bullpen. And while they likely overpaid for a guy or 2, the guys they got were considered reasonable additions to attack the greatest weakness on this team. So for me, the plan was good-decent. The execution was good-decent, the result was horrible...

I could never support a plan where the objective was "to build a team that could reach .500." The Oriole's FO has been so worried about fielding a respectable team "next year" that they have killed any possibility of fielding a competitive team three of four years down the road! Adding a couple of veteran arms to the bullpen and a couple of mediocre veteran bats to the lineup last winter was not a "good-decent" plan. It was a plan that pushed back any chance for competitivenes another year.

[Fan4Life]

What financial constraints? They had a $90M+ payroll. That was in the top 1/3 of the league. The O's had a higher payroll than the Cardinals or the Phillies or the Braves.


Financial restrictions? The payroll is $90+ million.

The primary increase in payroll from last year to this year was the bullpen. Had the bullpen played to their capabilities, along with Mora, Huff and Payton, playing remotely close to their September averages in April-August, how different life would be. My point is that that trying to say the Middle Ground plan is a horrible plan because the past 10 years is an example of it is not a valid comment IMO... The past 9 years are examples of poorly executed plans.. I don't include 2007 as I think the FO did a good job with the additions they made in general. They fact those players didn't produce to their career numbers isn't the fault of the FO.

And to be fair... lol isn't the payroll closer to $86mil after $$$ from the Yankees for Wright and $$$ from the Mets for Benson?

[Gurgi]

People who fear the Orioles will lose 120 games if they go for a total rebuild and the fans will quit coming. YOU forget there is a certain joy in watching young kids trying hard to play. Even when they lose they can be celebrated as your loveable losers. However there is nothing fun about watching millionaires lose. I can't point out all the reasons but it is true none the less.

Like fans can tell when players are dogging it we can tell when they are trying. Really all you can ask for is effort.

[DrungoHazewood]

So you hand out a 5 year deal (don't agree with contracts longer then that) to said ace and 2nd baseman they will be what???? 33-35 when the contract expires. Those are not old ages for a ball player in this day and age.

Sure it is.

An average player who's able to play through his 35th birthday has declined from his peak offensive value to about 84% of that. His stolen bases will have declined to 44% of peak. His triples are at 32% of peak, hits down to 77%. For most players this means they're no longer major leaguers.

For example, in 2006 there were 19 major leaguers at age 27 who played 100 or more games. 13 of them had OPSes over .800. There were only seven major leaguers aged 35 who played 100 games, and only three of them had an OPS over .800.

Most major leaguers are out of baseball by their mid-30s, and that's barely changed in the last generation or two.

[Sports Guy]

I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them.I am sorry but this is bs. We had a 90 million dollar payroll...We have routinely been above 70 million over the past 10 years...It has NEVER BEEN about the AMOUNT of money spent...It has been on what you spend the money on.
And as it has been pointed out, keeping some core players and adding some FA's to go with them (Middle Ground?) isn't a bad plan just because they have executed it poorly.It was a horrible plan...Look at the results and not only the results, look at our future...It isn't good especially when you put into context with the rest of the division and league. Let's not overlook this. We have to compete with teams that either have more money than us, a brighter future ore both. This is not a good thing.
I made this same case regarding the plan coming into this season. Their plan was to rebuild what everyone could see as the primary flaw on the team, The BullpenThere was and is a lot more wrong with this team than the BP.

[Sports Guy]

It is fine to not think that having a player play most if not all his career and loosing fans is least of you worries, but think on this. Why are you an O's fan? I would be willing to bet most of us older fans would say along with the winning tradition, we bonded with our players. You knew year in year out Brooks was going to be there, Belanger (my fav. all time O), Cal, Eddie, Palmer etc.... Today's youth has no such connection with the team, and will change teams at the drop of a hat now days. The future O's fans need the few really good players we have to connect with. If they don't and we keep loosing the stadium will eventually be empty and then the team may be moved. I am not supporting keeping guys who can't play, but when we have a young guys that can become icons, you have to think long and hard and then think some more on moving them.
I am trying to build a long term winning organization...If we won the division every year from 2010-2023, i hardly think people would care if there wasn't one player here for more than 7-8 years.

They would get over it quickly with all the winning.

Now, don't get me wrong...There are exceptions to signing guys into their 30s...Ripken was a good example of that.

Roberts and Bedard are not examples of this.

[Fan4Life]

I am sorry but this is bs. We had a 90 million dollar payroll...We have routinely been above 70 million over the past 10 years...It has NEVER BEEN about the AMOUNT of money spent...It has been on what you spend the money on. It was a horrible plan...Look at the results and not only the results, look at our future...It isn't good especially when you put into context with the rest of the division and league. Let's not overlook this. We have to compete with teams that either have more money than us, a brighter future ore both. This is not a good thing.There was and is a lot more wrong with this team than the BP.

I generally agree with your trade ideas. Bedard if necessary, BRob, Tejada, DCab... mainly because as I said, by keeping the few assets we have, we really can't improve. Assuming we can get the players you outlined, I'm onboard. My point about payroll is that because they had already inflated it to the $79-85M range for several years, that left them less flexibility to add less risky / higher cost players. So for me, higher payroll means LESS flexibility, not more. IE.. payroll constraints...

[Sports Guy]

I generally agree with your trade ideas. Bedard if necessary, BRob, Tejada, DCab... mainly because as I said, by keeping the few assets we have, we really can't improve. Assuming we can get the players you outlined, I'm onboard. My point about payroll is that because they had already inflated it to the $79-85M range for several years, that left them less flexibility to add less risky / higher cost players. So for me, higher payroll means LESS flexibility, not more. IE.. payroll constraints...

Well this goes back to the idea of getting the wrong players, executing the "middle ground" plan(ie strive for 500) and just being bad at what they do.

[Delduck]

Sure it is.

An average player who's able to play through his 35th birthday has declined from his peak offensive value to about 84% of that. His stolen bases will have declined to 44% of peak. His triples are at 32% of peak, hits down to 77%. For most players this means they're no longer major leaguers.

For example, in 2006 there were 19 major leaguers at age 27 who played 100 or more games. 13 of them had OPSes over .800. There were only seven major leaguers aged 35 who played 100 games, and only three of them had an OPS over .800.

Most major leaguers are out of baseball by their mid-30s, and that's barely changed in the last generation or two.

I give up. I just dumbfounded. Why do you guys even like this sport and this team inparticular?? What is the point of cheering on a team when the players change year after year? Whats the point when the game has been reduced down to cold hard stats and numbers. I guess we should have traded Cal after the 94 season, in his finnal 7 seasons he only had 2 years above an .800 OPS. And why did we even want Brooks in his whole career he only posted 2 above .800. Now I understand why I never took an intrest in stats in baseball, after a time all that matters is the numbers not the passion or players.

[Greg Pappas]

I think that one important factor being overlooked by many would be the swell of interest in the team IF a true rebuild takes place. I would be more interested to watch the kids grow together and develop into quality big leaguers rather than a bunch like we currently have. Season ticket sales may not improve, hard to say, but I for one would go to see them play far more often than I do now.


Hire the games best scouts, both amateur, minor league and major leagues. Become the team that the other 29 teams admire as the best in scouting.

Rebuild from the minor league player development up through the big league club.

Institute a new and aggresive foreign scouting plan and put it to work.

If we take these approaches, most fans, such as those of us here, will see that a true and smart plan is in place, and it will feel good again to be an Orioles fan, with hope for a great future.

[square634]

I give up. I just dumbfounded. Why do you guys even like this sport and this team inparticular?? What is the point of cheering on a team when the players change year after year? Whats the point when the game has been reduced down to cold hard stats and numbers. I guess we should have traded Cal after the 94 season, in his finnal 7 seasons he only had 2 years above an .800 OPS. And why did we even want Brooks in his whole career he only posted 2 above .800. Now I understand why I never took an intrest in stats in baseball, after a time all that matters is the numbers not the passion or players.

Cal and Brooks played in different eras so you can't just translate their numbers to the present. And yes, there is a human element to the game and being a fan, but that does not excuse poor front office decisions.

[Sports Guy]

I give up. I just dumbfounded. Why do you guys even like this sport and this team inparticular?? What is the point of cheering on a team when the players change year after year? Whats the point when the game has been reduced down to cold hard stats and numbers. I guess we should have traded Cal after the 94 season, in his finnal 7 seasons he only had 2 years above an .800 OPS. And why did we even want Brooks in his whole career he only posted 2 above .800. Now I understand why I never took an intrest in stats in baseball, after a time all that matters is the numbers not the passion or players.

As i said and i am sure Drungo would agree, there are the rare players(guys like Cal and Brooks) who are exceptions to this.

But overall you have to play the percentages and do what is best for the long term.

You are bringing up the rare circumstances....For the most part, after 7-8 years, a lot of times it is time for a change for each side.

[Goop]

Hopefully he's not all talk and will actually do something. That being said, I think he is the right man for the job.

[DrungoHazewood]

I give up. I just dumbfounded. Why do you guys even like this sport and this team inparticular?? What is the point of cheering on a team when the players change year after year? Whats the point when the game has been reduced down to cold hard stats and numbers. I guess we should have traded Cal after the 94 season, in his finnal 7 seasons he only had 2 years above an .800 OPS. And why did we even want Brooks in his whole career he only posted 2 above .800. Now I understand why I never took an intrest in stats in baseball, after a time all that matters is the numbers not the passion or players.

It's a lot easier to hold onto a career-long Oriole when you have lot of other talent around him. It's much more difficult to argue that we should hold onto a lot of declining players when they're the only chits we have to trade for a future where we don't finish below .500 for 10 consecutive years.

It's great that Cal was an Oriole until the day he retired. But he spent most of his career on bad teams. I've had enough loyalty. I want to win for once. The numbers aren't about not caring, they're partially about figuring out when caring for a player too much is going to doom your team.

[Hallas]

It's a lot easier to hold onto a career-long Oriole when you have lot of other talent around him. It's much more difficult to argue that we should hold onto a lot of declining players when they're the only chits we have to trade for a future where we don't finish below .500 for 10 consecutive years.

It's great that Cal was an Oriole until the day he retired. But he spent most of his career on bad teams. I've had enough loyalty. I want to win for once. The numbers aren't about not caring, they're partially about figuring out when caring for a player too much is going to doom your team.

I think it's also worth noting that when a player has a 10-year peak where he's about 30% better than average while playing above average defense at a premium defensive position (like Cal), a 20% decline at age 35 still makes him a valuable player and one worth keeping around.

Most players aren't Cal though. Here's to hoping that Nick Markakis turns into someone like him though.

[mweb]

I don't want too many players with 1000+ minor league at bats. If you're going to be a franchise-changing star you're probably never going to approach 1000 minor league at bats.

But the point is well taken - you'll get better deals on players without major league track records. Either that or Hayden Penn-like records. You know there are GMs out there trying to get 10 cents on the dollar because Penn has a 9.00 ERA in 50 innings.

Markakis had 1,034 ab's, Sizemore had 1,998 ab's, David Wright had 1,419 ab's, Hanley Ramirez had 1,536 ab's, Miguel Cabrera had 1,428, Reyes had 1,303, Howard had 1,853, Fielder had 1,635, Utley had 1,648, Rollins had 2,242, BJ Upton had 1,824, Mauer had 1,058, Morneau had 1,867, and Russell Martin had 1,311. THe only guy I saw that had less than 1,000 was Pujols. Obviously not a large sample size, but I think I made my point.

But yeah, I get what you're saying and you get what I was saying, so it's all good either way.

[Ralph]

I dont know if this has been mentioned but Melvin Mora has a contract that not many team will want to take alone so he should be traded with Bedard the way the Marlins traded Lowell with Beckett and still got a good bounty for them. All we have to do is make mora waive his NTC which he will if he sees the team is being blown up.

[mweb]

I'm not trying to argue what MacPhail's philosophy should be.

I'm telling you what MacPhail's philosophy is.

Well I'm telling you that I don't agree with his philosophy is that's what it is, but thanks for the info.

[Sports Guy]

I dont know if this has been mentioned but Melvin Mora has a contract that not many team will want to take alone so he should be traded with Bedard the way the Marlins traded Lowell with Beckett and still got a good bounty for them. All we have to do is make mora waive his NTC which he will if he sees the team is being blown up.

But then you don't get as much for Bedard in all likelihood.

Just offer to eat up to 70% of the Mora contract if needs be.

[Delduck]

It's a lot easier to hold onto a career-long Oriole when you have lot of other talent around him. It's much more difficult to argue that we should hold onto a lot of declining players when they're the only chits we have to trade for a future where we don't finish below .500 for 10 consecutive years.

It's great that Cal was an Oriole until the day he retired. But he spent most of his career on bad teams. I've had enough loyalty. I want to win for once. The numbers aren't about not caring, they're partially about figuring out when caring for a player too much is going to doom your team.

I guess I just long for the day when you can relate to the players, because the good ones are there year after year. And this afternoon I have had time to reflect on this conversation and to tell the truth... Every year I enjoy baseball less. And it is mostly because the players change teams so much. You got to know not only the players for your team but the players on the other teams. And that was just from a casual fans stand point. I am sure the hard core fans know each roster and the all. I use to know several players on just about each team, now I would be lucky to tell you more then one on each team other then the Yanks and Soxs. IMO the game has become so impersonal, and even though I understand the numbers and why most want to see some of these guys traded, it is like taking away a big part of why I enjoyed the game to begin with.

Shine I even said a couple time I was in favor of blowing it up. But it was like when my wife was looking at new cars. I said it was ok to look at Chevys, until we got on the lot and was really looking at them. I told her I just can't do this. So she got a Dodge, it is not a Ford but I can handle a Dodge.

[RVAbird]

I guess I just long for the day when you can relate to the players, because the good ones are there year after year. And this afternoon I have had time to reflect on this conversation and to tell the truth... Every year I enjoy baseball less. And it is mostly because the players change teams so much. You got to know not only the players for your team but the players on the other teams. And that was just from a casual fans stand point. I am sure the hard core fans know each roster and the all. I use to know several players on just about each team, now I would be lucky to tell you more then one on each team other then the Yanks and Soxs. IMO the game has become so impersonal, and even though I understand the numbers and why most want to see some of these guys traded, it is like taking away a big part of why I enjoyed the game to begin with.

Shine I even said a couple time I was in favor of blowing it up. But it was like when my wife was looking at new cars. I said it was ok to look at Chevys, until we got on the lot and was really looking at them. I told her I just can't do this. So she got a Dodge, it is not a Ford but I can handle a Dodge.

Part of your disillusionment might come from the very system you think you support. If this team stays in the mode of signing mediocre FAs to bloated mid-term contracts, we lose draft picks and the FAs don't stay for long. What better way to get to know your team than to construct it full of young talented players who will be under team control for 5-6 years and start taking advantage of the draft in order to bring up home-grown talent that can become the faces of the organization. If we go with a youth movement and rebuild, I think you will get that opportunity to connect with the players as you watch them grow. Does that make sense?

[Tomkingsize]

If a young guy is already on a major league roster and producing well, it becomes much harder to get him, so I'd rather get more value out of guys who have yet to spend much or anytime in the bigs, but wil be ready to do so next year.

Right and Ian Stewart fits this description to a tee.

:)

[Delduck]

Part of your disillusionment might come from the very system you think you support. If this team stays in the mode of signing mediocre FAs to bloated mid-term contracts, we lose draft picks and the FAs don't stay for long. What better way to get to know your team than to construct it full of young talented players who will be under team control for 5-6 years and start taking advantage of the draft in order to bring up home-grown talent that can become the faces of the organization. If we go with a youth movement and rebuild, I think you will get that opportunity to connect with the players as you watch them grow. Does that make sense?

I am in no way wanting us to sign mediocre FA's, I am having a hard time with trading Erik and BRob. IMO they are still young and will be productive for the next 5-6 years. I don't feel that the drop off they will experience will be much until maybe the last year of their contracts. Even then I feel they will good players. I know stats are aginst me, and I do not have numbers to back how I feel, But sometimes baseball is more then just numbers.

[RVAbird]

I am in no way wanting us to sign mediocre FA's, I am having a hard time with trading Erik and BRob. IMO they are still young and will be productive for the next 5-6 years. I don't feel that the drop off they will experience will be much until maybe the last year of their contracts. Even then I feel they will good players. I know stats are aginst me, and I do not have numbers to back how I feel, But sometimes baseball is more then just numbers.

That's totally understandable, but the thing is even though they may remain productive there is no way we can complement them with adequate talent except through the FA market, which gets us back to the original problem. I know it's going to hurt parting ways with these guys, but it's the only way to create a team that has a direction and can grow and compete together.

[Sports Guy]

I am in no way wanting us to sign mediocre FA's, I am having a hard time with trading Erik and BRob. IMO they are still young and will be productive for the next 5-6 years. I don't feel that the drop off they will experience will be much until maybe the last year of their contracts. Even then I feel they will good players. I know stats are aginst me, and I do not have numbers to back how I feel, But sometimes baseball is more then just numbers.

It seems to me that liking the players and having them grow close to the fans means more to you than winning.

Let's look at the other side of this.....What if those guys just flat out don't want to be here anymore?

What if the losing has gotten to them and they just say, we are tired of it...We want to win.

So then what happens? You watch them leave after 2009 and all you get are some draft picks.

[DrungoHazewood]

I guess I just long for the day when you can relate to the players, because the good ones are there year after year. And this afternoon I have had time to reflect on this conversation and to tell the truth... Every year I enjoy baseball less. And it is mostly because the players change teams so much. You got to know not only the players for your team but the players on the other teams. And that was just from a casual fans stand point. I am sure the hard core fans know each roster and the all. I use to know several players on just about each team, now I would be lucky to tell you more then one on each team other then the Yanks and Soxs. IMO the game has become so impersonal, and even though I understand the numbers and why most want to see some of these guys traded, it is like taking away a big part of why I enjoyed the game to begin with.

Shine I even said a couple time I was in favor of blowing it up. But it was like when my wife was looking at new cars. I said it was ok to look at Chevys, until we got on the lot and was really looking at them. I told her I just can't do this. So she got a Dodge, it is not a Ford but I can handle a Dodge.

Most people who long for the days before free agency when players stuck with their teams forever were fans of the Yankees, Orioles, Cardinals, Dodgers, and maybe a few other teams. I really doubt that fans of the St. Louis Browns or KC A's or Washington Senators weep for a past where they got to keep their 60-win teams for decades on end. It's wonderful when you have Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams locked up for a lifetime. Not so great when the best you can do is Mickey Vernon and George McQuinn.

The O's are the Washington Senators of today, and I regularly get down on my knees and thank the Lord that we could turn over the whole roster in the blink of an eye.

[Delduck]

It seems to me that liking the players and having them grow close to the fans means more to you than winning.

Let's look at the other side of this.....What if those guys just flat out don't want to be here anymore?

What if the losing has gotten to them and they just say, we are tired of it...We want to win.

So then what happens? You watch them leave after 2009 and all you get are some draft picks.

I want my cake and eat it too.:D As I have said from the beginning I am not opposed to trading some, such as Miggy , DCab and some other harder to trade guys. And I guess I am not completely opposed to trading BRob and Erik as long as everything possibly has been do to keep them in a O's uniform and improve the team. But if Erik say I will not sign an extension under any circumstances, them that bridge it burnt and I would be fine trading him.

[rolliefingers]

I give up. I just dumbfounded. Why do you guys even like this sport and this team inparticular?? What is the point of cheering on a team when the players change year after year? Whats the point when the game has been reduced down to cold hard stats and numbers. I guess we should have traded Cal after the 94 season, in his finnal 7 seasons he only had 2 years above an .800 OPS. And why did we even want Brooks in his whole career he only posted 2 above .800. Now I understand why I never took an intrest in stats in baseball, after a time all that matters is the numbers not the passion or players.

How have you been able to watch baseball since the mid-'70s?

[DrungoHazewood]

How have you been able to watch baseball since the mid-'70s?

There are posters over at the OOTP messageboards who seriously think that baseball peaked in the mid-1950s and has been on a downward slide ever since. To them free agency, expansion, and divisional play were kicks in the nuts. They've pretty much given up on the sport in real life and use OOTP to simulate worlds where 1955 baseball is completely unchanged and the Brooklyn Dodgers and Yankees can fight it out forever and ever.

I've seen 26-page epic threads on how it's objectively provable that baseball of 50 years ago was better than that of today in every way.

There's some weird people in this world.

[Delduck]

How have you been able to watch baseball since the mid-'70s?

To be honest I have not watched, and I mean whole games of baseball, and seriously fallowed the sport since the very early 90's. I kept track of the O's through the papers and Internet. But seriously watched and keep track of baseball as a whole it has only been the past couple years I have tried to get caught up.

The past couple days have really got me thinking about how much I have fell out of love for this sport. I have learned so much from this website in particular I can formulate a semi informed opinion, but the passion about the sport is really not there.

Any way enough of me pouring out my baseball soul, we need to get the discussion back on the topic at hand.

[rolliefingers]

The past couple days have really got me thinking about how much I have fell out of love for this sport.

That's interesting. I can definitely understand the nostalgia for the earlier era of baseball, when the players were "more like us". Hell, early Orioles players used to live in Waverly, a few blocks from the stadium; today, that notion is truly mind-blowing.

But I never experienced that era. I began following baseball just before the HR era started (1989 - I was 7 years old). Free agency is all I know. And as a result, the inner workings of a front office have become in some ways more important than the on-field product.

Personally, I don't think baseball players are "overpaid"; rather, I think they were artificially UNDERPAID until the reserve clause was overturned. The high ticket prices we pay today are recompense for the 80-something years of artifically cheap baseball that our ancestors enjoyed. I'd rather the money go to the players than some do-nothing owner; at least the players create the value of the product.

I still love the game itself. I think it's both a thinking man's sport and one of the most purely athletic sports ever created. I could - hell, I DID, several times - watch a game between the two worst teams in the league and still find something to enjoy.

But in a world where the Yankees are allowed to spend five or six times as much on players as the Devil Rays, I find front office machinations to be incredibly fascinating. The reason Moneyball was so great is that it showed a way for David to beat Goliath. If MLB had a salary cap, there'd be no more David and Goliath; it'd just be 30 Goliaths, separated sometimes by truly great or awful management (e.g. Patriots, Knicks), but more often by something approaching dumb luck.

As frustrating as it is to be an Orioles fan right now, the truth is that we have nobody to blame but ourselves. We spend a ton of money on awful players; we refuse to buy low and sell high on the trade market; we value personal virtue and sentimentality over on-field performance.

To me, it's a cop-out to blame our failures on the Yankees and Red Sox. They'll probably always have more money than us, but if Billy Beane can build a playoff team with 1/3 of their resources, then there's hope for us all.

Sure, some of the personal relationships with players get lost in the mix. But it's been that way for a long time. To me, the real drama is in the boardroom as much as it is on the field.

[RShack]

As frustrating as it is to be an Orioles fan right now, the truth is that we have nobody to blame but ourselves. We spend a ton of money on awful players; we refuse to buy low and sell high on the trade market; we value personal virtue and sentimentality over on-field performance.
Flanny as GM reminds me of Bobby Cox as GM. They both realized that the farm system is important, and they both did things to improve the sucky farm system they inherited. But neither one had a clue about what to do with the ML roster, and neither one could pull the trigger on any important trades. Cox wound up back in the dugout, where he belongs. I hope Flanny winds up in some good role that is good for him and vice versa...

[Witchy Chick]

Well I had to respond that way because you chose to pick certain parts of my whole post. And I really could not care less how you type it up as long as you respond in a thought out, respectful manner.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree about our young soon to be FAs. I know we can't spend with the Soxs or Yanks, pretty much nobody can. I would say that large 5 year deals to a potential perennial ace and all star 2nd baseman is money well spent. So you hand out a 5 year deal (don't agree with contracts longer then that) to said ace and 2nd baseman they will be what???? 33-35 when the contract expires. Those are not old ages for a ball player in this day and age.


I’m assuming you’re referring to Bedard and Roberts as your “potential perennial ace and all star 2nd baseman.” The problem is – neither one of them (seemingly) want to sign a 5-year deal right now. They’re both under club control thru the 2009 season (Brian via his current extension, and Bedard via arb years 2 and 3). However, at the conclusion of the 2009 season, Brian will be 32 and Bedard 30 (31 on OD 2010). There’s no way you sign either one of them to five-year deals at that juncture.

Basically, it takes two to tango. The club may want to extend Roberts and Bedard to five-year deals right now, but neither one wants to commit. By the time Roberts and Bedard might be ready to commit (post-2009 season), it will not be feasible for the club to do so. We’ve already missed the boat on Roberts and Bedard. What we need to do from this point forward is lock up our good young talent (I’m looking at you, Nick) to 5-year deals. The Twins way of doing business if you will (see: Santana (extended 2/05 for '05-'08 seasons), Mauer (extended 2/07 for '07-'10 seasons), Crain (extended 2/07 for '07-'09)).

As an aside, looking at Morneau’s tenure/contract situation – I bet the Twins attempt to extend him this off-season.


Witchy

[Tx Oriole]

I am just as big a fan of baseball as i have always been. I like the Orioles but they are not the reason i like baseball. Yes it is nice to remember when players stayed with a team through out their career. But that is just not the way it works now for the most part. But just because some players move ffrom one team to another doesn't take away from baseball as a game. I even like to read books about the old stars from 100 or more years ago. I am reading about Cap Anson now. What ever that iis just me having a loveof the game.

[Old#5fan]

I do think that McPhail "gets it." However, what he is "getting" is nothing more than what the average devout and serious Orioles fan has known all along. Its a darn shame that we had to go through several GM's or VPOBO whatever they called Syd Thrift before somebody seems to state a firm grasp of the obvious! The sorry fact that this organization is 28/30 in finding and developing major league talent is the heart or root of the problem. This needed to be changed years ago. It is not something that should have gone un-noticed or not addressed. At least McPhail has publicly aknowledged the problem. Now lets see if he can provide the solution. IMHO that's a big if!

[erb8472]

Interesting to read McPhails thoughts when he first came on board. Thought folks might like to see this for perspective.

[LookinUp]

Interesting to read McPhails thoughts when he first came on board. Thought folks might like to see this for perspective.

Fabulous bump.

[Frobby]

MacPhail said no matter what route the front office chooses, the focus of the organization from this point forward will be on scouting and development, placing a priority on pitching. A recent Baseball America study of player development ranked the Orioles 28th among 30 major league teams. MacPhail said that the number is unacceptable, especially in a division with two financial heavyweights in the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

"We have to do a good job of identifying talent at every level and then teaching it and instructing it," he said. "We're not going to be able to go toe-to-toe, dollar-for-dollar with New York and Boston, nor do you have to necessarily. We just need to do things very well, and that's the same thing on the field."

Hmm, this has a familiar ring......

Like I've said several times this offseason, these things are easy to say, and much harder to do. I hope Duquette can succeed where MacPhail did not, but it won't be a cakewalk.

[Miller192]

The next GM in 2014 is going to say the same thing too.

[The Rick]

The first hand account from our very own Red Sox farm hand who saw personally Duquette change the farm for Boston gives me a lot of hope that he can and will turn things around.

[Hank Scorpio]

I am 100% with SG on this.

With such a thin free-agent market this year, we have a real opportunity to set this club for a great future.

Here we are in the future!!!!! ;)

[sakata_catching]

Another excellent quote:

"There are really a small number of players that one would assume would make a meaningful difference, and there will be a lot of activity for them," he said. "We'll look at the economics, the free agents and their ability and get a realistic idea of who might come here."

So no more wasting time trying to woo the Carlos Lee's and Paul Konerko's of the world if they have no intention of signing here. Excellent!

This makes my mind-grapes hurt.

[Big Al]

The first hand account from our very own Red Sox farm hand who saw personally Duquette change the farm for Boston gives me a lot of hope that he can and will turn things around.

I can only foster so much hope as long as PA is the owner.

[joeyc]

I can only foster so much hope as long as PA is the owner.

There you go. Now you're getting it.
We will always be waiting for the future with that clown owning the team.

[SilentJames]

Another excellent quote:

"There are really a small number of players that one would assume would make a meaningful difference, and there will be a lot of activity for them," he said. "We'll look at the economics, the free agents and their ability and get a realistic idea of who might come here."

So no more wasting time trying to woo the Carlos Lee's and Paul Konerko's of the world if they have no intention of signing here. Excellent!


This makes my mind-grapes hurt.

Necro-post of the century.

[SammyBirdland]

Another excellent quote:

"There are really a small number of players that one would assume would make a meaningful difference, and there will be a lot of activity for them," he said. "We'll look at the economics, the free agents and their ability and get a realistic idea of who might come here."

So no more wasting time trying to woo the Carlos Lee's and Paul Konerko's of the world if they have no intention of signing here. Excellent!

This makes my mind-grapes hurt.

http://i.imgur.com/l9IkM.png

[Remember The Alomar]

This makes my mind-grapes hurt.

I did a double take when I read that post.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I did a double take when I read that post.

That was B.T. (Before Teixiera), when he was often a rational commenter. Then came that event and he snapped.

[PA Bird Fan]

http://i.imgur.com/l9IkM.png

This is classic. Rep to you.