Indy vs NE...Who ya got?

[Sports Guy]

I am picking Indy to beat NE.

[DuffMan]

I am rooting for a meteor to fall from the sky hitting the field and ridding us of both of these franchises!!!

[geschinger]

I am picking Indy to beat NE.

Considering your record in picking upsets in college this past weekend, I can't tell you how much your prediction troubles me. ;)

[ChrisP]

I hate to say it, but I think NE wins, 38-24.

[MikeAD]

I am rooting for a meteor to fall from the sky hitting the field and ridding us of both of these franchises!!!

Haha, my friend (a dreaded Steelers fan) said somethign similar to this last night. Something too terrible to repeat, but funny non the less.

I think Manning comes out and gets it done in a huge game for him, Wayne will get close to 200 yards recieving.

At least thats what I hope, Im sick of hearing about the Patriots, but I could see Brady just running over the Colts like he has everyone else.

I'll go with Colts 42-Pats 21.

Brady throws 3 picks....

[Sports Guy]

Considering your record in picking upsets in college this past weekend, I can't tell you how much your prediction troubles me. ;)

Trust me when i say this was in my mind(and knew someone would bring it up) as I was typing my answer. :D

[beaner]

Pats 44
Colts 21


Book it!

[Mad Mark]

Colts lose a nail-biter. Game sets record for total points scored. People wonder if either defense showed up. ESPN has some kind of orgasm over the whole thing...

[NewMarketSean]

I'll be in Vegas for this game. Let me say that I am taking the Pats and the over.

I think the score will be Pats 52, Colts 28

[beaner]

I'll be in Vegas for this game. Let me say that I am taking the Pats and the over.

I think the score will be Pats 52, Colts 28

Oddly enough, the total has gone down from the Opening Sunday Night...I am curious as to why people would be playing the under.

[mweb]

Pats win, but I think it will be close.

[geschinger]

I think there will be less points scored than most people think. Both teams will try to take away the big plays and the game will see several long sustained drives.

The Colts will do to the Patriots what everyone tries to do to them. They will run the ball successfully against the Patriots and keep Brady off the field.

Colts 27 Patriots 24

[longflyball]

Oddly enough, the total has gone down from the Opening Sunday Night...I am curious as to why people would be playing the under.

I don't know. But I do know that the early money is the smart money.

I don't have a good read on this game. I'm confident that the Colts can keep it close. But every now and then they punt. 28-26 New England.

[beaner]

I don't know. But I do know that the early money is the smart money.

I don't have a good read on this game. I'm confident that the Colts can keep it close. But every now and then they punt. 28-26 New England.

Yea, it does seem to follow that trend. The Pats are now up to 5.5 at most casinos, 5 at others. Hard to believe that the undefeated defending Super Bowl champs are underdogs at home. Lots of respect for New England.

Pats 44
Colts 21

[beaner]

People haven't been playing the under...83% actually have put money on the over, and the total is still going down, enticing people even more to bet the over. That usually means that the insiders know it will be a lower scoring game than everyone else.

Remember...bookies are in it to get 50/50 on each side to make sure they collect the most juice as possible, unless they are very confident in what the outcome will be. This seems to be an early indiciation of the Colts/Pats total situation.

The total opened Sunday Night at 57.5 and is now sitting at 56.5 at most places. I had thought it would have been over 60..Since most people like to bet overs rather than unders, I expected the line to be higher. I guess they're trying to tempt us to play the over, making it look "too easy", which of course, doesn't exist.

[beaner]

Yeah, that's how it looks too. Although even knowing that it's hard to imagine that game going under.

Vegas doesn't keep building multi million dollar casinos because people are winning. But I do agree that it looks like an over. I don't know off the top of my head, but have the Pats gone under this year?

[longflyball]

People haven't been playing the under...83% actually have put money on the over, and the total is still going down, enticing people even more to bet the over. That usually means that the insiders know it will be a lower scoring game than everyone else.

This only makes sense if the insiders are betting a lot more $ per person than everyone else. Right?

[Tank]

New England will win by a bakers dozen IMO.

Patriots - 37
Colts - 24

[Spoonless]

I think it's going to come down to whoever has the ball last.

Patriots 30
Colts 27

[ChaosLex]

I hope Indy wipes the floor with him. It'll serve Belichick right for running up the score as he has this season.

[Maverick2143]

NE continues to roll 42-21

[BaltimoreTerp]

I'm expecting one of three outcomes:

1. (a.k.a. the realistic one) It comes down to the Colts having the ball with less-then two minutes, Manning driving down the field, and Vinitari kicking a 40-plus-yard field goal with no time remaining.

Colts win, 37-35.

2. Same situation, only Vinitari shanks the field goal, rips off his jersey to reveal a Colts jersey, then runs over to the sideline to embrace Belichek. A.k.a. the Bill Simmons one.

3. Colts end up leading by 30 to start the fourth quarter, let Manning throw to score another TD, bring in Hunter Smith to quarterback the rest of the way while they still throw, end up breaking 60 points total, then Dungy walks over and stares down Belichek in lieu of a handshake.

A.k.a. the Vindication one.

And for the record, the fact that I will be rooting for the Colts for the first time in my life makes me feel ungodly dirty and ashamed. That just makes my hatred for the Patriots even worse for forcing this upon me.

[beaner]

Well the bookmakers have an idea who has the advantage in the game...If you look at the line movement and betting trends you can tell when something fishy is going on.

Beaner...Totally agree with you about Vegas. My point is it looks like an easy over, but because of the movement I would put my money on the under.

Since we're talking about betting a bit, the trend tonight favors the Cavs and Grizzlies in the NBA. Let's see if those 2 cover.

1-1 in your trend plays...The NBA is tough to bet in my opinion. I'll stick to College Hoops betting wise.

[NewMarketSean]

Vegas doesn't keep building multi million dollar casinos because people are winning. But I do agree that it looks like an over. I don't know off the top of my head, but have the Pats gone under this year?

Nope, and I think they're 8-0 against the spread too.

[NJOriolesFan]

Since I have Brady, Maroney, Moss and Gostkowski on my fantasy team, you know who I will be rooting for.

[Sports Guy]

Impressive way to end the game for NE.

Indy not having Harrison and Ugoh were really hurt today(especially Harrison).

[geschinger]

Impressive way to end the game for NE.

Indy not having Harrison and Ugoh were really hurt today(especially Harrison).

Yep, I think Ugoh was the key, it seems like Charles Johnson was getting beat on every snap. I kind of wish Dungy had more of a sense of urgency about this game. They took the approach that it was just one game and kept guys out whom they say could of played if it was a playoff game. IMO this game should of been treated like a playoff game as with the tiebreaker advantage, this game was for homefield advantage.

[twoBshorty]

The Pats were AWFUL today. I have no idea how they won that game. They were just outplayed for probably 55 of the 60 minutes in the game, but those 5 minutes were good enough to get it done. Their offense was sputtering all day, I can't figure out how they scored 24 points, or how the defense seemed to be getting run over with a bus and yet held the Colts to just 20 points while the offense finally got its act together. If Harrison had played, I'm positive the Colts would have won. But I will take 9-0. The game was way lower-scoring and featured more turnovers than I ever expected, but I will take it.

Now I'm off to the Pats boards to join in the conspiracy screaming about the referees. I hope the FBI finds where Bill &#$%ing Polian is holding all their children hostage unless they make 400 idiotic PI calls.

Just kidding. Sort of. :mad:

[geschinger]

Now I'm off to the Pats boards to join in the conspiracy screaming about the referees. I hope the FBI finds where Bill &#$%ing Polian is holding all their children hostage unless they make 400 idiotic PI calls.

Just kidding. Sort of. :mad:

I agree that there were a couple of questionable PI calls. Other than the one on Anthony Gonzalez which was obvious the others were questionable. The two most blatant examples are the one called on the defender on the guys covering Wayne and Moss inside the five.

But when it comes to Pats/Colts games, the Pats have no business complaining about the refereeing... There still needs to be a whole lot more makeup calls to makeup for the referring disaster that was the AFC Chamionship Game mugging in Foxboro a few years back. Yes, I'm still bitter about that night.

[mweb]

The PI on Samuel I think it was inside the 5 on a bomb was an awful call! The offensive PI on Moss was bad as well.

Close game, the Colts proved that the Pats aren't invincible by any means, but I agree with Gesh about treating this game like a playoff game. The Colts just lost homefield.

[twoBshorty]

I agree that there were a couple of questionable PI calls. Other than the one on Anthony Gonzalez which was obvious the others were questionable. The two most blatant examples are the one called on the defender on the guys covering Wayne and Moss inside the five.

But when it comes to Pats/Colts games, the Pats have no business complaining about the refereeing... There still needs to be a whole lot more makeup calls to makeup for the referring disaster that was the AFC Chamionship Game mugging in Foxboro a few years back. Yes, I'm still bitter about that night.

Well, we've got it in our heads that Bill Polian spends every waking hour he's not throwing other teams' employees into walls on the phone with the NFL and his Competition Politburo whining about the Pats, so pardon us for temporarily indulging ourselves in conspiracy theories. Especially when the penalty yards lined up 146 to 25, the Pats finally failed to cover the Vegas spread (*COUGH*), and Brady spent the last seconds of a huge win going postal on an official instead of celebrating. We are all smelling dumpsters full of rats and Tim Donaghy. :p

Seriously, though, I'm mostly just venting here. I have a Yankee-level hatred of the Colts, and this gets me really worked up. The penalty yards were just so incredibly lopsided.

Edit: OK, I'm done. My persecution complex is going back into its hole.

[geschinger]

Well, we've got it in our heads that Bill Polian spends every waking hour he's not throwing other teams' employees into walls on the phone with the NFL and his Competition Politburo whining about the Pats, so pardon us for temporarily indulging ourselves in conspiracy theories. Especially when the penalty yards lined up 146 to 25, the Pats finally failed to cover the Vegas spread (*COUGH*), and Brady spent the last seconds of a huge win going postal on an official instead of celebrating. We are all smelling dumpsters full of rats and Tim Donaghy. :p

Seriously, though, I'm mostly just venting here. I have a Yankee-level hatred of the Colts, and this gets me really worked up. The penalty yards were just so incredibly lopsided.

If you look at it in context it wasn't as dramatic a difference in penalties as it looks. There were a couple of obvious personal foul calls against the Patriots responsible for a good chunk of that yardage and Moss caught the ball on the questionable PI call against the Colts negating what would of been a 55 yard penalty on a bad call.

[longflyball]

The referee is in his first year as a referee, and Nantz mentioned that the team of officials had been noted for going overboard with pass interference flags.

Beer and loud friends prevented me from paying close attention, but the game went about as I expected.

[NewMarketSean]

I'll be in Vegas for this game. Let me say that I am taking the Pats and the over.

I think the score will be Pats 52, Colts 28

Lost $40. And then the Pats had to go ahead and win anyways. Damn.

[tywright]

Anybody notice that AD didn't play much in the game?

[mweb]

If you look at it in context it wasn't as dramatic a difference in penalties as it looks. There were a couple of obvious personal foul calls against the Patriots responsible for a good chunk of that yardage and Moss caught the ball on the questionable PI call against the Colts negating what would of been a 55 yard penalty on a bad call.

I don't know what was questionable about the call on the Moss catch, the db clearly made contact before the ball got there.

[geschinger]

I don't know what was questionable about the call on the Moss catch, the db clearly made contact before the ball got there.

There was some contact on all the PI calls even the one against Wayne I thought was bogus. Do you think throwing the flag on that play to Moss was a good call?

[mweb]

There was some contact on all the PI calls even the one against Wayne I thought was bogus. Do you think throwing the flag on that play to Moss was a good call?

Yes, it was an obvious call imo, I'm talking about contact that impedes someone from catching the ball, which there was. It doesn't matter since he caught it anyway, but I don't think there's a question that the PI calls favored the Colts yesterday.

[geschinger]

Yes, it was an obvious call imo, I'm talking about contact that impedes someone from catching the ball, which there was. It doesn't matter since he caught it anyway, but I don't think there's a question that the PI calls favored the Colts yesterday.

I agree, there was nothing as blatantly missed as the call on Wayne and the offesnive PI call on Moss. I wouldn't of called a penalty on Moss' first TD catch either but that was a lot more of a push off than the one where they did throw the flag.

But again, the total number of penalty yardage was skewed by the long PI calls and the obvious personal foul penalties at 15 yards a pop. The Colts had the edge w/the calls but not nearly enough to ignite consipiracy theories etc...

[mweb]

I'm not believing in any conspiracy theories here, just thought those were two very poor calls.

[ccbird]

I look at it this way. The Pats were mediocre yesterday and still beat the clear cut 2nd best team in the NFL on the road. They won't be tested the rest of the year barring a major injury. The best team I've ever seen and it's not really close.

[twoBshorty]

What does everyone think about this accusation that the Colts were piping in crowd noise? I heard the skipping everyone is talking about in the audio linked at profootballtalk.com, but thought it must have been the CBS feed or there would be more of an uproar. However, now it looks like the NFL is going to accede to the Patriots' demand that it be investigated:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/nfl_experts/post/Patriots-complain-about-crowd-noise?urn=nfl,52422

I don't know if they will find anything or not. Probably not. But if the Colts did do this after what happened to the Patriots, they are too stupid for words. Why would you risk it after how hard Goodell came down? And to all their fans saying, "The Colts don't cheat, you're the cheater:"

Yeah, that's what I said about the Pats when Videogate started. And then it picked up steam. And then it turned out the Pats HAD cheated. Oops.

[AgentOrange]

I am pretty sure they pump in crowd noise. At least this was talked about a couple years ago as well and it gets kinda glossed over.

Not just with the Colts either. I thought they mentioned the Saints as well.

[twoBshorty]

Never mind. CBS just said it was their issue.

[geschinger]

I am pretty sure they pump in crowd noise. At least this was talked about a couple years ago as well and it gets kinda glossed over.

Not just with the Colts either. I thought they mentioned the Saints as well.

I think it's BS. I've been about a dozen games at the dome over the years and it has been deafening with no evidence of piped in noise. I think it has more to do w/the acoustics of the building.

Now if someone wants to go after the Colts for exploiting home field advantage, they might have more of a case w/the manipulation of the climate control. I didn't hear anything specific from yesterday from what I've heard/read about the AFCCG they had it like a sauna for that game.

[geschinger]

I look at it this way. The Pats were mediocre yesterday and still beat the clear cut 2nd best team in the NFL on the road. They won't be tested the rest of the year barring a major injury. The best team I've ever seen and it's not really close.

The Colts didn't play anywhere near their best game either and were missing some key contributors against the Patriots who were at close to full strength. Home Field advantage in the playoffs will give NE a big advantage but when the Colts get their guys healthy I don't see much separation between the two teams level of talent.

If the Colts go on and lose @NE in the AFCCG I'll certainly look back on yesterday's game wondering what could of been had Dungy treated it like a playoff game and not just another regular season game.

[longflyball]

This was one of the best games I've seen in the regular season in quite some time.

I'll talk mostly about the Colts because everything you need to know about the Patriots has been said 55 times on ESPN in the past half hour. If you didn't catch it this time around, stay tuned.

One of the first things I noticed was that the Colts sustained a consistent pass rush. That has simply not been done by any other of the Pats' opponents. None. Brady had only been sacked a couple times going into this game, none of the games included being hit as many times as well. This bodes very well for the Colts going forward.

Randy Moss is a great receiver but the theory of him being roughed up a bit and then being a little less productive throughout the game came into play here. The Colts are easily the most physical defense he's faced all year. He hasn't faced a CB as physical as Kelvin Hayden. Kelvin Hayden/Marlin Jackson are two of my favorite CB's in the NFL right now, Jackson is an all around stud and while Hayden does get burnt at times, his physical-ness makes for a very fun player to watch.

Understand, I'm not saying Moss is bad. But if you jam him hard at the line a couple times, it'll slow him down. Brady threw to him more times than he typically would, often times for less yards than Moss would typically get as a result of him not being open. He definitely short armed a few balls, most notably an INT that Antoine Bethea SHOULD have had. Bethea catches that, and the game's over and this is all for naught.

This isn't a Moss bash. I don't like Moss anymore. I used to love him when he was at Marshall. I loved him in his early years at Minnesota. I hate FSU and him getting in trouble over there didn't bother me, I thought he was good kid. I despised him when he played in Oakland and despised how he got to New England, a perfect situation, simply by being a coward. That being said, this has nothing to do with that. They've been saying that if you jam him hard and early, you'll see his production drop. That happened in this game to an extent IMO.

The Colts did a very, very good job in pass coverage, not only pass rush. I've thought for awhile that their unit was very underrated in terms of covering, even with Jason David and Nick Harper. David is a very good zone corner, as a man-to-man corner he's awful. Harper is a very good zone corner. Hayden and Jackson are both good zone corners and they're also a ton more physical in that they hit harder, cover roughly the same, and help in run support.

This helped in that they were able to completely shut down Donte Stallworth and Ben Watson and mostly quiet Wes Welker. They let Randy Moss get his catches, while roughing him up so that he was less effective. This was a very good defensive gameplan.

Now, for what I would expect going forward:

1) Penalties and yards. The Colts probably were a bit fortunate with the penalties. Yes, this set a record but you have to take into account that the Colts throw deep more often than any team the Patriots ever typically face, therefore resulting in long PI calls that run up the penalty yardage.

All the same, I wouldn't expect this many penalty yards.

2) Where the Colts could win back some of their yards is if they didn't give the Patriots so many freakin' yards on ST's. They gave the Patriots 182 return yards. That's way, way too much. If they cut down on that, the penalty yards become way less of a factor.

That being said, the fact that the Colts consistently gave the Patriots such excellent field position and ONLY gave up 24 points is borderline remarkable.

3) The Colts need to get healthy.

Injuries are never an excuse for a single game, ever. Ever.

BUT...

To expect a game at a later date to be similar to a game that was at an earlier date where the team was less healthy is downright foolish IMO. Here's a description of Ugoh, Harrison, Keaiho, and Hagler:

A) Tony Ugoh helps a ton in pass protection. He's a great run blocker, but Addai had a great game anyway. Manning was consistently pressured when he normally wouldn't be.

If Ugoh is in there, I think they would win. There were all too many plays that Johnson blew. If you get the chance to go back and watch the game, watch how poorly Charlie Johnson played. It really was horrible.

B) Marvin Harrison is, well, Marvin Harrison. Harrison in this game would've helped if only to be a decoy. Yes, that would've helped. Anthony Gonzalez, who can't be mentioned in the same breath as Harrison, dislocated his thumb on the first play from scrimmage. This caused two things:
a) Caused him to drop the TD pass Marvin Harrison would've dropped
b) Brought in possibly the worst WR in the NFL, Aaron Moorehead.

You never really realize how bad Moorehead is until you see it first hand. He's horrible. The Patriots let the Field Turf cover him and he still dropped passes and showed bad footwork. I have no idea why he keeps getting a paycheck from the Colts.

No doubt Harrison would've made those catches and would've made others.

ALSO, it would've prevented the Patriots from completely shutting down Dallas Clark with Ellis Hobbs and others. Them being able to double cover him and Wayne completely blew a hole straight through the offensive philosophy that the Colts live by. It's their bread and butter.


C) In spite of everything I've listed, I believe Freddy Keiaho was the biggest loss for the Colts. This is probably because if you take how bad I listed Moorehead and Johnson to be, I think Boiman is that much worse.

Well, maybe not. But Keiaho would've stopped the chains from moving with such efficiency. How? Well, he would've been able to stop the draw play from Maroney/Faulk. Maroney/Faulk weren't all that productive all day but the draw play was clutch when they needed it and kept the chains moving on more than one of their crucial drives. If you have Keiaho in there, they go nowhere.

You might say that the Titans and Panthers were successful running the draw play. While true, they are both better running teams IMO, and BOTH of those times, Keiaho has been out as well.

Boiman isn't soft, but like someone pointed out at the bar I was at yesterday: "He either plays like he just woke up or like he's just plain ridiculous." I think that pretty accurately sums it up.

D) Tyjuan Hagler would've also helped a ton with the draw play. He isn't as good as Freddy Keiaho, who I think might be their best LB including Brackett, but he is a good player. He's raw, kind of like Boiman, but also has some awareness. He would also have helped in pass coverage.

There is a football team in Baltimore that needs a head coach. Are you available?