Will this team make one more run in 2008?

[TGO]

Thinking about it, we are likely to wind up with a last place team's schedule and a pretty good draft pick. We are in terrible cap shape, so we may need to lose a few guys, but we will take hits those so we can't shed everyone all at once. Will we give it one last push in 2008 and then rebuild in 2009, or are we looking at the last hurrah for some of our core guys right now?

This decision will obviously affect the personnel choices that are made in the offseason, including QB and Suggs (actually not sure there's going to be room for him no matter what they do).

[Miller192]

Thinking about it, we are likely to wind up with a last place team's schedule and a pretty good draft pick. We are in terrible cap shape, so we may need to lose a few guys, but we will take hits those so we can't shed everyone all at once. Will we give it one last push in 2008 and then rebuild in 2009, or are we looking at the last hurrah for some of our core guys right now?

This decision will obviously affect the personnel choices that are made in the offseason, including QB and Suggs (actually not sure there's going to be room for him no matter what they do).

We should have enough space to sign Suggs and a first round pick. Granted, I'm assuming Suggs' contract will be more guaranteed money and they will probably use a split-tier bonus package. We would lower his salary to league minimum in 2008.

We'll probably be competitive from a defensive standpoint. On offense, who knows what will happen. I would imagine we would regress.....if that's possible.

I'm thinking 7-9, 8-8 for next year.

EDIT: I'm assuming we will receive enough of a rookie pool allocation to help sign our 1st round pick

[ChrisP]

Add a playmaker WR, QB, and LBa/CB's who can cover and this team is fine.
(That's not hard to fill, is it?)

They have the two most important things, O-Line & D-Line.

[Elbren]

Thinking about it, we are likely to wind up with a last place team's schedule and a pretty good draft pick. We are in terrible cap shape, so we may need to lose a few guys, but we will take hits those so we can't shed everyone all at once. Will we give it one last push in 2008 and then rebuild in 2009, or are we looking at the last hurrah for some of our core guys right now?

This decision will obviously affect the personnel choices that are made in the offseason, including QB and Suggs (actually not sure there's going to be room for him no matter what they do).

I had just assumed that they were going to resign Suggs in the offseason. Wasn't that the reason that they didn't franchise AD?

[NewMarketSean]

I don't know how we could make a serious run next year with Boller or McNair at the helm. Unless we sign a FA, like McNabb (which would just restart the McNair cycle), I don't see it happening.

Of course, I could be wrong. With everyone back healthy and with Boller starting the season as the starter, maybe he can get it done.

But I think this was our last shot and we failed, terribly.

[Miller192]

Our best option would be to unload the team now. It wouldn't help us much in 2008 but we would be in a great position for 2009 and beyond. This would be very similar to what we did in 2002, prior to the 2003 season.

We also can't afford to franchise Suggs, we need to sign him. It actually would make more sense to sign him than to actually let him walk.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I'd like to bring back this thread (http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55543), because I would start trading as many people as feasible.

[Sports Guy]

Sure this team could make a run...We haven't been healthy this year...That is why we have sucked for the most part.

We have other problems but they are enhanced because of the injuries.

This team would be in playoff contention if they weren't so decimated by injuries.

That is just how it is.

With a last place schedule(potentially), a good draft(which I am sure we will have) and a few decent signings, we could be a 10-11 win team nextyear, even if Boller is the QB.

But one thing has to change...Coaching.

Coaching and injuries is why we are where we are today...Talent and depth is there(in most positions).

We have to improve the secondary's depth though...That is a must.

[TGO]

Sure this team could make a run...We haven't been healthy this year...That is why we have sucked for the most part.

We have other problems but they are enhanced because of the injuries.

This team would be in playoff contention if they weren't so decimated by injuries.

That is just how it is.

With a last place schedule(potentially), a good draft(which I am sure we will have) and a few decent signings, we could be a 10-11 win team nextyear, even if Boller is the QB.

But one thing has to change...Coaching.

Coaching and injuries is why we are where we are today...Talent and depth is there(in most positions).

We have to improve the secondary's depth though...That is a must.


Agree about the secondary but I also think we need some serious help at DE. Pryce going out killed us.

[Miller192]

Sure this team could make a run...We haven't been healthy this year...That is why we have sucked for the most part.

We have other problems but they are enhanced because of the injuries.

This team would be in playoff contention if they weren't so decimated by injuries.

That is just how it is.

With a last place schedule(potentially), a good draft(which I am sure we will have) and a few decent signings, we could be a 10-11 win team nextyear, even if Boller is the QB.

But one thing has to change...Coaching.

Coaching and injuries is why we are where we are today...Talent and depth is there(in most positions).

We have to improve the secondary's depth though...That is a must.

We are at the point salary cap wise that for every signing outside of Suggs, we will need to lose players. So let's say you want to sign (just as an example) Donovan McNabb. It'll cost you a third, at least, and probably the contract of a Samari Rolle.

We just can't financially add to this team much unless you are willing to part with some key veterans. You then further complicate the problem because you are adding salary while still paying bonus money.

Our best option is to get it over with. Sign Suggs, dump some vets (Rolle, Ogden, Price, McNair, Flynn, Mike Andersen) draft a solid QB and have the team ready to compete in 2009 with roughly 25-30 million of cap space.

I would dump Ray Lewis as well. But he might retire if he doesn't want to be apart of a rebuilding effort.

[NewMarketSean]

I wouldn't count on Ray retiring anytime soon. That guy loves to play and I think he'll play another 3-5 years if a team lets him. I agree that it probably shouldn't be the Ravens unless he wants to take a big pay cut to do it.

[Miller192]

I wouldn't count on Ray retiring anytime soon. That guy loves to play and I think he'll play another 3-5 years if a team lets him. I agree that it probably shouldn't be the Ravens unless he wants to take a big pay cut to do it.

You're probably right. He could go to a team like Tennesse, Jacksonville or San Diego. They could afford him.

[ccbird]

Look to '09. Next year is impossible to make any kind of legit run with the Qb's we have on the roster. Even with a weak schedule and healthy roster we aren't a Super Bowl contender with any of the Qb's we have. Now if we traded for McNabb and he was healthy and got back to pre 2006 form we probably could make a good run but that is way too risky.


Draft a QB, resign Suggs and Brown, and cut some players with high cap numbers and take the salary hit next year. By '09 you will still have a good nucleus if we draft well and should have some cap space to fill some holes if needed.

[Sports Guy]

We are at the point salary cap wise that for every signing outside of Suggs, we will need to lose players. So let's say you want to sign (just as an example) Donovan McNabb. It'll cost you a third, at least, and probably the contract of a Samari Rolle.

We just can't financially add to this team much unless you are willing to part with some key veterans. You then further complicate the problem because you are adding salary while still paying bonus money.

Our best option is to get it over with. Sign Suggs, dump some vets (Rolle, Ogden, Price, McNair, Flynn, Mike Andersen) draft a solid QB and have the team ready to compete in 2009 with roughly 25-30 million of cap space.

I would dump Ray Lewis as well. But he might retire if he doesn't want to be apart of a rebuilding effort.

McNair, Rolle, Ogden and Flynn won't be back next year...We will get some relief there, especially since we will likely see some retirements.

I am also sure you will see some restructuring.

The Ravens don't spend a lot in FA anyway, so the lack of money available isn't a huge thing. Plus, the cap figures to go up some as well.

I wouldn't dump Ray...He is only signed through next year...If he keep playing like he is, I wouldn't mind giving him a 2-3 year extension...He is the Ravens version of Ripken.

[McLovin]

McNair, Rolle, Ogden and Flynn won't be back next year...We will get some relief there, especially since we will likely see some retirements.

There are going to be a ton of cap hits as well because of this.

I'd rather see them take all of the cap hits in 2008 (instead of doing a June 1st deal and pushing it off), draft and groom a stud QB, and reload for 2009.

Part of the team is old, and the window is closing for them. Part of the team is young, and ready to become the new core. I say go young.

For me it comes down to the QB - we won't win without one. It's doubtful we'll draft someone to play right away (remember the last time we tried that?), there are no quality free agent QB's, and McNabb/Cullpepper/etc. would be McNair 2.0.

[Miller192]

McNair, Rolle, Ogden and Flynn won't be back next year...We will get some relief there, especially since we will likely see some retirements.

I am also sure you will see some restructuring.

The Ravens don't spend a lot in FA anyway, so the lack of money available isn't a huge thing. Plus, the cap figures to go up some as well.

I wouldn't dump Ray...He is only signed through next year...If he keep playing like he is, I wouldn't mind giving him a 2-3 year extension...He is the Ravens version of Ripken.

SG, I'm not trying to be a jerk here but I don't think you understand how the salary cap works (not many people do though). If we release those players there becomes what is known as "dead money." Dead money is money than cannot be used. Essentially, it lowers what we are able to spend to sign draft picks, extend players, etc. Those player you mention would take approx. 10 million dollars off our cap. So that we leave us with much less room to sign a Matt Ryan and a bunch of other draft picks.

That's why I say we cannot afford to bring in any free agents. The team you see on the field today is going to be very similar to what you see next year. Regardless of who gets cut.

The advantage to taking the hit now is that once a team does that, it completes wipes out the cap costs the following season.

It's a double edged sword, it becomes very tricky to just release players and sign a bunch of pics and extend a guy like Suggs in the same year. Let's just do the best we can in '08, and move on to 2009 and beyond. We could set ourselves up very nicely for the future with a little short term pain.

[Sports Guy]

SG, I'm not trying to be a jerk here but I don't think you understand how the salary cap works (not many people do though). If we release those players there becomes what is known as "dead money." Dead money is money than cannot be used. Essentially, it lowers what we are able to spend to sign draft picks, extend players, etc. Those player you mention would take approx. 10 million dollars off our cap. So that we leave us with much less room to sign a Matt Ryan and a bunch of other draft picks.

That's why I say we cannot afford to bring in any free agents. The team you see on the field today is going to be very similar to what you see next year. Regardless of who gets cut.

The advantage to taking the hit now is that once a team does that, it completes wipes out the cap costs the following season.

It's a double edged sword, it becomes very tricky to just release players and sign a bunch of pics and extend a guy like Suggs in the same year. Let's just do the best we can in '08, and move on to 2009 and beyond. We could set ourselves up very nicely for the future with a little short term pain.

I know how the cap works...If we get retirements, that doesn't hurt the cap.

I am not saying we will get hurt a lot but if you get some big cap numbers off the team and with the way the cap will go up, I am not sure we will be in as much trouble as you think.

How much are we over the cap right now?

[Birds of B'more]

Sure this team could make a run...We haven't been healthy this year...That is why we have sucked for the most part.

We have other problems but they are enhanced because of the injuries.

This team would be in playoff contention if they weren't so decimated by injuries.

That is just how it is.

With a last place schedule(potentially), a good draft(which I am sure we will have) and a few decent signings, we could be a 10-11 win team nextyear, even if Boller is the QB.

But one thing has to change...Coaching.

Coaching and injuries is why we are where we are today...Talent and depth is there(in most positions).

We have to improve the secondary's depth though...That is a must.

Having a last place schedule really isn't as big a factor as it used to be before the last expansion/realignment.....only 2 out of 16 games are influenced by where a team finished the previous season. And with the way teams fluctuate year-to-year you never even know whether you'll be better off facing the last place finisher in a particular division or the defending champ the following year. Take Indy's schedule, for instance. Going into this season people probably said coming to Baltimore would be a tough game for them....but if they had a last place schedule they would have replaced the Ravens with a trip to Cleveland. Hindsight being 20/20, which do you now think would have been the tougher game?

That said, if the current standings hold here are the home and away games for the Ravens next season. (the games influenced by 2007 finish are in itlalics)

Home
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Washington
Philadelphia
Jacksonville
Tennessee
Kansas City or Oakland

Away
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Dallas
NY Giants
Indianapolis
Houston
Miami

[Miller192]

I know how the cap works...If we get retirements, that doesn't hurt the cap.

I am not saying we will get hurt a lot but if you get some big cap numbers off the team and with the way the cap will go up, I am not sure we will be in as much trouble as you think.

How much are we over the cap right now?

Yes, retirement does affect the cap. He still counts against the cap but what teams do is release the player after June 1st to increase the cap savings that year. You rarely will see a retired player not be released prior to June 1st. The salary goes away but not the dead money.

Whatever cap increase comes is going to be small this year. This is mainly due to the restructured TV contracts. Plus, the rookie allocation will be a larger part of that due to the NFL Europe folding.

EDIT: By taking as you termed it "big cap numbers off the team" you are hurting the current year while making the following year better. In effect, the more players you cut the worst off that year becomes financially.

I can't answer how much over the cap we will be due to escalators in certain contracts. 2008's cap number is $116 and we will be roughly $110.

[mweb]

Good points Miller, yes, retirements do affect the cap, as will cutting the guys SG mentions.

The last place schedule post by Birds of BMore was good as well, it probably won't matter as much as many think. Look at the Skins, they're playing a last place schedule, yet it is one of the hardest schedules in the NFL, despite playing in the "greatly inferior" conference.

[Miller192]

Good points Miller, yes, retirements do affect the cap, as will cutting the guys SG mentions.

The last place schedule post by Birds of BMore was good as well, it probably won't matter as much as many think. Look at the Skins, they're playing a last place schedule, yet it is one of the hardest schedules in the NFL, despite playing in the "greatly inferior" conference.

I totally agree with this, last year was a perfect example. I remember the talk about how we had an easy second half with KC, PIT, BUF, and CIN and even TEN in regards to how they were playing at one point in the season. However, each game became very important for the other teams as they were fighting for a wild card. Outside of the Cleveland game, each game was a must win for the opponent. What looked very easy at one point, became much different.

[ccbird]

Yeah the weak schedule you certainly can't rely on just because you were a last place team. Really, it only effects two games, the 2 games you get matched up with from the two other teams in your conference that finished in the same position as you, everything else is predetermined. Also, as has been mentioned here there is so much turnover from year to year with teams that it's hard to determine until the new season starts a lot of times.


Just looking at our potential schedule for next year on the surface it won't be easy at all. Both the AFC South and the NFC East along with our own AFC North are IMO the three hardest divisons in football this year.