Orioles Top 15 Prospects from Scout.com

[orioole28]

an interesting article in Scout.com asking Deric McKamey from Baseball HQ about our prospects. Very positive on all 15. Very interesting is that he has Arrieta, Hernandez, and Patton as possible #3 starters. Hmmm. . . .Here's Baseball HQ Top 15

BALTIMORE ORIOLES TOP 15 PROSPECTS

1. Matt Wieters (C)
2. Bill Rowell (3B)
3. Radhames Liz (RHP)
4. Troy Patton (LHP)
5. Nolan Reimold (OF)
6. Jake Arrieta (RHP)
7. Garrett Olson (LHP)
8. Chorye Spoone (RHP)
9. Brandon Erbe (RHP)
10. James Hoey (RHP)
11. Pedro Beato (RHP)
12. Brandon Snyder (C)
13. David Hernandez (RHP)
14. Mike Costanzo (3B)
15. Bob McCrory (RHP)

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http://orioles.scout.com/2/714975.html


Edit: Correction this is BaseballHQ Top 15

[Pruke]

an interesting article in Scout.com asking Deric McKamey from Baseball HQ about our prospects. Very positive on all 15. Very interesting is that he has Arrieta, Hernandez, and Patton as possible #3 starters. Hmmm. . . .Here's Scout.com Top 15

BALTIMORE ORIOLES TOP 15 PROSPECTS

1. Matt Wieters (C)
2. Bill Rowell (3B)
3. Radhames Liz (RHP)
4. Troy Patton (LHP)
5. Nolan Reimold (OF)
6. Jake Arrieta (RHP)
7. Garrett Olson (LHP)
8. Chorye Spoone (RHP)
9. Brandon Erbe (RHP)
10. James Hoey (RHP)
11. Pedro Beato (RHP)
12. Brandon Snyder (C)
13. David Hernandez (RHP)
14. Mike Costanzo (3B)
15. Bob McCrory (RHP)

You might need to be a suscriber.


http://orioles.scout.com/2/714975.html

I'm surprised nobody has responded to this.

A couple of thoughts.

- Good to see Patton so high
- Surprised that Arrieta is higher than some of the pitchers below him, but that's not necessarily a bad thing
- Very surprised Spoone is not higher on the list

[wayne25]

what suprised me, a little, is that he sees the O's pitchers as # 3 starters or bullpen guys. This can't be good.

[Pruke]

Comments from Roch on general rankings

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/roch/blog/2007/12/orioles_prospects.html

From Roch:
Personally, I’d move up Chorye Spoone from the 10th spot, certainly ahead of Brandon Erbe, who took a step back this year but still has a ton of potential. He’s just young. Spoone has a lot of people talking about him in the organization. The Orioles won’t rush him – one example is how he’ll stay at the minor league camp during spring training – but they recognize him as one of their top pitching prospects. Tim Bascom also should make any updated list. He looks like he’ll be a draft-day steal for the Orioles.

http://www.topprospectalert.com/2008baltimoreoriolesprospects.htm

1 Matt Wieters
1st Round Draft Pick; Did Not Play Pro Ball In 2007

#2 Billy Rowell
(Low-A) 91G .273 21(2B), 3(3B), 9HR, 57RBI, 31BB, 104K, 3SB

#3 Troy Patton
(MLB) 0-2, 3.55ERA, 12.2IP, 4BB, 8K, .213BAA
(AAA) 4-2, 4.59ERA, 49IP, 11BB, 25K, .247BAA
(AA) 6-6, 2.99ERA, 102.1IP, 33BB, 69K, .247BAA

#4 Nolan Reimold
(AA) 50G .306, 15(2B), 11HR, 34RBI, 17BB, 47K, 2SB
(Rk) 9G .233, 4(2B), 1(3B), 8RBI, 6BB, 4K,

#5 Garrett Olson
(MLB) 1-3, 7.79ERA, 32.1IP, 28BB, 28K, .326BAA
(AAA) 9-7 3.16ERA, 128IP, 39BB, 120K, .208BAA

#6 Radhames Liz
(MLB) 0-2, 6.93ERA, 24.2IP, 23BB, 24K, .260BAA
(AA) 11-4, 3.22ERA, 137IP, 70BB, 161K, .204BAA

#7 Brandon Erbe
(High-A) 6-8 6.26ERA, 119.1IP, 62BB, 111K, .273BAA

#8 Pedro Beato
(Low-A) 7-8 4.05ERA, 142.1IP, 59BB, 106K, .256BAA

#9 Mike Costanzo
(AA) 137G .270, 29(2B), 1(3B), 27HR, 86RBI, 75BB, 157K, 2SB

#10 Chorye Spoone
(High-A) 10-9, 3.26ERA, 152IP, 67BB, 133K, .200BAA

[hoosiers]

Baseball America's AL East Top 10 issue arrived on Friday.

From one to ten - Wieters, Liz, Patton, Reimold, Rowell, Snyder, Arrietta, Spoone, Beato and Erbe.

Encouraging comments for Liz, Reimold and Snyder, IMO, in the write-ups. Liz is the only starter mentioned with "top of the rotation" stuff.

[Greg Pappas]

an interesting article in Scout.com asking Deric McKamey from Baseball HQ about our prospects. Very positive on all 15. Very interesting is that he has Arrieta, Hernandez, and Patton as possible #3 starters. Hmmm. . . .Here's Scout.com Top 15

BALTIMORE ORIOLES TOP 15 PROSPECTS

1. Matt Wieters (C)
2. Bill Rowell (3B)
3. Radhames Liz (RHP)
4. Troy Patton (LHP)
5. Nolan Reimold (OF)
6. Jake Arrieta (RHP)
7. Garrett Olson (LHP)
8. Chorye Spoone (RHP)
9. Brandon Erbe (RHP)
10. James Hoey (RHP)
11. Pedro Beato (RHP)
12. Brandon Snyder (C)
13. David Hernandez (RHP)
14. Mike Costanzo (3B)
15. Bob McCrory (RHP)

You might need to be a suscriber.


http://orioles.scout.com/2/714975.html

Good post and thanks for the info. Bascom will hopefully jump way up this list this season, and 3B Tyler Kolodny could surprise as well.

[orioole28]

what suprised me, a little, is that he sees the O's pitchers as # 3 starters or bullpen guys. This can't be good.

This is true but these guys(Arrietta, Hernandez, et al) are still young and have time to change what scouts preceive them to be. If D. Hernandez has a very good year in AA ball, as well as Patten and Arrietta, they could change some minds. So what they think of them now really doesn't mean a whole lot,IMO.

[UMterp08]

what suprised me, a little, is that he sees the O's pitchers as # 3 starters or bullpen guys. This can't be good.

We already have young #s 1 and 2 in Loewen and Guthrie. Cabrera could still turn into a 1 or 2 as well.

[Lucky Jim]

We already have young #s 1 and 2 in Loewen and Guthrie. Cabrera could still turn into a 1 or 2 as well.

I'm not sure Guthrie is a number 2. By which I mean I highly doubt Guthrie is a #2. And he's not that young.

[Frobby]

I'm not sure Guthrie is a number 2. By which I mean I highly doubt Guthrie is a #2. And he's not that young.

The odds of Guthrie being a no. 2 next year are a lot better than the odds of Loewen being a no. 1 next year. But that's not saying much.

I don't worry that much about what any of the pundits say about a guy's ceiling being a no. 3. We can use all the no. 3 starters our system can generate.

[wildcard]

Bedard, Guthrie and Loewen would be a tough 1-2-3.

[tywright]

Baseball America's AL East Top 10 issue arrived on Friday.

From one to ten - Wieters, Liz, Patton, Reimold, Rowell, Snyder, Arrietta, Spoone, Beato and Erbe.

Encouraging comments for Liz, Reimold and Snyder, IMO, in the write-ups. Liz is the only starter mentioned with "top of the rotation" stuff.

It's interesting to see they are still high on Snyder, but not that favorable on Rowell. And Beato before Erbe?? Where is Olson?

[Lucky Jim]

The odds of Guthrie being a no. 2 next year are a lot better than the odds of Loewen being a no. 1 next year. But that's not saying much.

I don't worry that much about what any of the pundits say about a guy's ceiling being a no. 3. We can use all the no. 3 starters our system can generate.

I think it's far more likely that Loewen pitches like a #4 next year (and I'd be happy with that) and Guthrie like a #5.

Fact is, we don't have a #1, #2 - besides Bedard. I agree about producing #3s. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't like to crank out a #1 or #2. To be sure.

[Frobby]

I think it's far more likely that Loewen pitches like a #4 next year (and I'd be happy with that) and Guthrie like a #5.

Well, I have given this lecture many times, but most people don't realize how high the ERA's of 4's and 5's tend to be.

Last year there were 63 AL pitchers who pitched 100 innings.

1-14: 3.01-3.70
15-28: 3.70-4.11
29-42: 4.13-4.72
43-56: 4.75-5.57
57-63: 5.75-6.20

Now, do you really think Guthrie is going to have an ERA over 5.57 this year?

[Lucky Jim]

Well, I have given this lecture many times, but most people don't realize how high the ERA's of 4's and 5's tend to be.

Last year there were 63 AL pitchers who pitched 100 innings.

1-14: 3.01-3.70
15-28: 3.70-4.11
29-42: 4.13-4.72
43-56: 4.75-5.57
57-63: 5.75-6.20

Now, do you really think Guthrie is going to have an ERA over 5.57 this year?

I'm aware that those ERAs are high (and so don't need the lecture.) But they're averages. I didn't mean that he would pitch like a league-average #4 or #5 (and I'd like to see something other than an "average" of those numbers - teams can fall apart on the back end of a rotation with a patchwork of guys who aren't ML starters, distorting numbers. I think looking at pitchers who pitched 100 innings is low, and distorts your averages. If we look at 150 innings+ I think those numbers likely normalize.)

Rather, I'm looking at how I figure a #4 on a good team is likely to perform: an ERA between 4.50 and 5.00 - which is where I expect Loewen to be.

As for Guthrie, an ERA over 5 would not surprise me in the least. I don't think number #5 starters who are #5s all year (as opposed to call-ups, swingmen, etc.) are quite that high. But Guthrie at a 5.25 or so? Sure. I can see that.

But - as someone as nuanced as you are in your arguments should understand - I didn't say it was likely that they'd perform that way. I said it is more likely they perform that way than that they perform like #1-2. Yes, however, I do think it MORE likely that Guthrie puts up a 5+ ERA than that he pitches to a 3.75 ERA for the year.

Feel free to disagree. But if you want to question my analysis at least do it on the basis of what I actually said.

[srh523]

And yet in this mix Hayden Penn fails to even get a mention! Has his star really fallen that far? I think he will come back and dominate AAA hitters again this year. They need to just let him there for a bit and get his swagger back.

[Frobby]

I'm aware that those ERAs are high (and so don't need the lecture.) But they're averages. I didn't mean that he would pitch like a league-average #4 or #5 (and I'd like to see something other than an "average" of those numbers - teams can fall apart on the back end of a rotation with a patchwork of guys who aren't ML starters, distorting numbers. I think looking at pitchers who pitched 100 innings is low, and distorts your averages. If we look at 150 innings+ I think those numbers likely normalize.)

Rather, I'm looking at how I figure a #4 on a good team is likely to perform: an ERA between 4.50 and 5.00 - which is where I expect Loewen to be.

As for Guthrie, an ERA over 5 would not surprise me in the least. I don't think number #5 starters who are #5s all year (as opposed to call-ups, swingmen, etc.) are quite that high. But Guthrie at a 5.25 or so? Sure. I can see that.

But - as someone as nuanced as you are in your arguments should understand - I didn't say it was likely that they'd perform that way. I said it is more likely they perform that way than that they perform like #1-2. Yes, however, I do think it MORE likely that Guthrie puts up a 5+ ERA than that he pitches to a 3.75 ERA for the year.

Feel free to disagree. But if you want to question my analysis at least do it on the basis of what I actually said.

In Loewen's case, I definitely agree with you. In Guthrie's case I'm not so sure. I don't expect a 3.75 ERA from him, but I don't expect 5.25 either. I've seen third-party projections in the 4.30-4.60 range and that's my best guess as to where he'll be. If I had to pick between 3.75 and 5.25, I'd pick the lower figure, but maybe that's just the optimist in me.

And I did not mean to distort what you were saying. But now you've dialed it back a bit. Before you said it was "far more likely" that Guthrie would pitch like a no. 5.

[JimPalmerJr]

Where is Hayden Penn ?

[orioole28]

And yet in this mix Hayden Penn fails to even get a mention! Has his star really fallen that far? I think he will come back and dominate AAA hitters again this year. They need to just let him there for a bit and get his swagger back.

I believe Penn isn't consider a prospect because he has exceeded the number of innings pitched in the ML.

[srh523]

I believe Penn isn't consider a prospect because he has exceeded the number of innings pitched in the ML.


You are right I was mostly speaking in term of the big club.

[orioole28]

You are right I was mostly speaking in term of the big club.

I believe if Penn has a solid ST, he will be given a good opportunity to make the starting rotation.

[hoosiers]

It's interesting to see they are still high on Snyder, but not that favorable on Rowell. And Beato before Erbe?? Where is Olson?

Olson's not in the to 10.

I think people forget how good Snyder was in short season after he was draft - league top prospect.

I think Rowell may lose a bit of his luster if he has to move to 1B and BA has consistently hinted that there are doubts he can stick at 3B.

[Frobby]

It's interesting to see they are still high on Snyder, but not that favorable on Rowell.

Since they rate Rowell ahead of Snyder, what is the basis for this statement?

[Lucky Jim]

In Loewen's case, I definitely agree with you. In Guthrie's case I'm not so sure. I don't expect a 3.75 ERA from him, but I don't expect 5.25 either. I've seen third-party projections in the 4.30-4.60 range and that's my best guess as to where he'll be. If I had to pick between 3.75 and 5.25, I'd pick the lower figure, but maybe that's just the optimist in me.

And I did not mean to distort what you were saying. But now you've dialed it back a bit. Before you said it was "far more likely" that Guthrie would pitch like a no. 5.

Ah. So - wait - you pervert my comment to say something it doesn't...but somehow that pales in importance to the idea that I'm "dialing it back" because I simply left out a modifier I used before? That's pretty absurd.

First, one isn't related to the other. You changed my comment and then present problematic statistics - essentially in rebuttal to an argument that hadn't been made. You casually glide over that, of course, to make it seem as if I've been disingenuous.

But I haven't. Which is my second point: there was no "dialing" intended - I DO think it far more likely that Guthrie puts up an ERA over 5.00 than an ERA of under 4.00 if he pitches a complete season.

Wait - am I changing my argument because I included "a complete season"? Because I round off to whole numbers? I don't think I am. The point remains the same. And the fact that I left the word "far" out of the second post is irrelevant - it's not as if there's some agreed upon measure of "likely" versus "far more likely." I guess it depends on what you feel is probabilistically significant.

But, just to be safe, I'll make sure I use perfectly parallel construction from here on out. Didn't realize we were so formalist in these parts.

[Edited to note: I'm really just arguing this tongue-in-cheek. Just fooling around. Sorry if it came off as shrill.]

[Gurgi]

Would love to trade Bedard and Roberts and fill out the prospects some more.

[Frobby]

Ah. So - wait - you pervert my comment to say something it doesn't...but somehow that pales in importance to the idea that I'm "dialing it back" because I simply left out a modifier I used before? That's pretty absurd.

First, one isn't related to the other. You changed my comment and then present problematic statistics - essentially in rebuttal to an argument that hadn't been made. You casually glide over that, of course, to make it seem as if I've been disingenuous.

But I haven't. Which is my second point: there was no "dialing" intended - I DO think it far more likely that Guthrie puts up an ERA over 5.00 than an ERA of under 4.00 if he pitches a complete season.

Wait - am I changing my argument because I included "a complete season"? Because I round off to whole numbers? I don't think I am. The point remains the same. And the fact that I left the word "far" out of the second post is irrelevant - it's not as if there's some agreed upon measure of "likely" versus "far more likely." I guess it depends on what you feel is probabilistically significant.

But, just to be safe, I'll make sure I use perfectly parallel construction from here on out. Didn't realize we were so formalist in these parts.

[Edited to note: I'm really just arguing this tongue-in-cheek. Just fooling around. Sorry if it came off as shrill.]

Sorry if I offended you in some way, it wasn't my intention.

[Lucky Jim]

Sorry if I offended you in some way, it wasn't my intention.

Not at all - which is why I added the note at the end. Just airing out the argumentative rhetoric.

[vatech1994]

Not at all - which is why I added the note at the end. Just airing out the argumentative rhetoric.

This is what happens when you get two lawyers "debating" :D

I kid, I kid

[tywright]

Since they rate Rowell ahead of Snyder, what is the basis for this statement?

Most on here rank Rowell ahead of Reimold and at least 4-6 slots ahead of Snyder, correct? However BA ranks Reimold, Rowell, and Snyder 4-5-6, respectively. Thus they are less excited about Rowell as we are.

[Frobby]

Most on here rank Rowell ahead of Reimold and at least 4-6 slots ahead of Snyder, correct? However BA ranks Reimold, Rowell, and Snyder 4-5-6, respectively. Thus they are less excited about Rowell as we are.

Fair enough. I'd be hard pressed to rank Reimold ahead of Rowell personally.

[Lucky Jim]

Most on here rank Rowell ahead of Reimold and at least 4-6 slots ahead of Snyder, correct? However BA ranks Reimold, Rowell, and Snyder 4-5-6, respectively. Thus they are less excited about Rowell as we are.

BA also ranked Snyder ahead of Reimold in the season-end prospect list for the Sally League in October.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/264942.html

I have trouble seeing it, but...