Evaluate the Bedard trade

[wildcard]

OK, it appears like it will be done soon. Everything seems to be in line. Roch has moved on to Roberts. So what do you think of the trade? Who wins? Who loses?

The trade is Bedard for Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio. The O's probably waive Roberson to make room for Sherrill.

My opinion is that over the next 4 years the Mariners won, after that it is anyones guess.

For the next 4 years the trade at the major league level is Bedard for Jones, Sherrill, and maybe Mickolio. Barring injury which could happen on either side of this trade, the Mariners got the guy that is likely to perform the best.

Bulter and Tilman will likely spend three more years in the minors and a rookie year in the majors before their performance turns into a positive at the major league level. Penn, Olson, Albers, Hoey; their first appearances at the major league level were not pretty. I expect Tillman and Butler to has similar starts to their careers. Then, hopefully they will have very good majors league careers.

MacPhail did not get Morrow or Clement or Balentien. They would all have supplied more, sooner at the major league level. The Cinny trade might be as good or better without Bruce. Jones should be a very good player.

So, I think the Mariners win until 2012, then there is the chance the O's may win. It will be a long, long time before this trade can be fully evaluated.

[bird watcher]

OK, it appears like it will be done soon. Everything seems to be in line. Roch has moved on to Roberts. So what do you think of the trade? Who wins? Who loses?

The trade is Bedard for Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio. The O's probably waive Roberson to make room for Sherrill.

My opinion is that over the next 4 years the Mariners won, after that it is anyones guess.

For the next 4 years the trade at the major league level is Bedard for Jones, Sherrill, and maybe Mickolio. Barring injury which could happen on either side of this trade, the Mariners got the guy that is likely to perform the best.

Bulter and Tilman will likely spend three more years in the minors and a rookie year in the majors before their performance turns into a positive at the major league level. Penn, Olson, Albers, Hoey; their first appearances at the major league level were not pretty. I expect Tillman and Butler to has similar starts to their careers. Then, hopefully they will have very good majors league careers.

MacPhail did not get Morrow or Clement or Balentien. They would all have supplied more, sooner at the major league level. The Cinny trade might be as good or better without Bruce. Jones should be a very good players.

So, I think the Mariner win until 2012, then there is the chance the O's may win. It will be a long, long time before this trade can be fully evaluated.


We all know that you are trying to give the deal the kiss of death with that line.;) :D






I like the deal. It is time to move on.

[furryburres]

It really depends. In my opinion, Tillman will only take two years to get up here, while Butler will get up here in the middle of '10.

[RZNJ]

How do the Mariners win over the next 4 years when they might only have Bedard for two? :confused:

I think both teams win. The Mariners traded two players who would have helped them this year but Jones is probably replaceable by someone like Balentien. The loss of Sherrill hurts them in the pen.

The O's get 3 high ceiling talents in Jones, Tillman, & Butler. If even one guy reaches that potential at a fairly young age they've broken even, IMO. Sherrill helps immediately and Mickolio could be a sleeper in the pen. In 5 players, the risk is spread out. In Bedard, the Mariners get one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but the risk is there also.

The trade makes sense for both teams but it makes more sense for the Orioles. The O's win. Even a lot of Mariner fans don't think Bedard puts them into the playoffs.

[vatech1994]

WC,
I really don't know where to even start with you. You talk about Seattle winning the trade for the next four years, but EB is only signed for the next two years. Assuming anything beyond those two years is a huge leap. And if you point to that BS article from last week where EB said in the same breath "I wouldn't mind staying" but "I don't want to be part of a rebuild" and "we wouldn't mind extending" but "we'd rather go year-by-year than discuss a three year deal", I may lose it at you.

I get that your partial to the guys that are already here. I think it is clear that very few people agree with your stance. However, some of the stuff you're typing in "analysis" these days is really off base.

To give my opinion:
2008 - Seattle is probably a 60-70% favorite to get more value from EB than we get from Jones, Sherill, etc...
2009 - Seattle is probably a 50-60% favorite to get more value from EB than we get from Jones, Sherill, etc... By the Micolio (sp?) is likely to be contributing by 2008 or 2009 since he has already pitched half a season in AAA...
2010 - The analysis has to split.
Baltimore is virtually a shoe in to get more value from the new guys than we would have gotten from EB, because there is a very high likelihood that he would leave via FA.
Analyzing vs Seattle, I still think the likelihood that we win the trade is very high, because I don't believe EB will stay in Seattle either (though I think it is more likely for them, maybe 50:50). Even if he does stay, I think it is very likely Baltimore gets more value from Jones & company because some portion of the others will be here by then if all goes well.

The scenario that the last three in this trade won't impact the majors until 2012 is hardly realistic. If they don't make the majors before 2012, then these players are likely busts.

[wildcard]

How do the Mariners win over the next 4 years when they might only have Bedard for two? :confused:

I think both teams win. The Mariners traded two players who would have helped them this year but Jones is probably replaceable by someone like Balentien. The loss of Sherrill hurts them in the pen.

The O's get 3 high ceiling talents in Jones, Tillman, & Butler. If even one guy reaches that potential at a fairly young age they've broken even, IMO. Sherrill helps immediately and Mickolio could be a sleeper in the pen. In 5 players, the risk is spread out. In Bedard, the Mariners get one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but the risk is there also.

The trade makes sense for both teams but it makes more sense for the Orioles. The O's win. Even a lot of Mariner fans don't think Bedard puts them into the playoffs.

The Mariners get Bedard for two years plus the opportunity to sign him long term. Considering that they will give up five minor league players they will probably make him a heck of an offer for him to stay.

[Frobby]

I have a lot of opinions I want to express, but as I said 3 weeks ago, I won't do it until it has been formally announced that a trade has occurred. Believe me, I'll have plenty to say.

[RZNJ]

The Mariners get Bedard for two years plus the opportunity to sign him long term. Considering that they will give up five minor league players they will probably make him a heck of an offer for him to stay.

Well, you know what's funny? The Mets gave up less to get Johann Santana and they have the oppurtunity to negotiate a new deal with him before the trade becomes official. The O's are getting a better deal with no negotiating window for the Mariners. So good luck Mariners in two years.

[RZNJ]

I have a lot of opinions I want to express, but as I said 3 weeks ago, I won't do it until it has been formally announced that a trade has occurred. Believe me, I'll have plenty to say.

A post telling us you have nothing to post? Thanks.:D

[Hank Scorpio]

I have a lot of opinions I want to express, but as I said 3 weeks ago, I won't do it until it has been formally announced that a trade has occurred. Believe me, I'll have plenty to say.

...a wise man.

[wildcard]

I have a lot of opinions I want to express, but as I said 3 weeks ago, I won't do it until it has been formally announced that a trade has occurred. Believe me, I'll have plenty to say.

I will look forward to it.

[Sonny76]

By next year Jones will make you forget Bedard. The pitching we got is icing on the cake. Great deal for the Birds.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Your question assumes that "winning" is some agreed upon definition, however, Baltimore and Seattle have two different agendas right now. We are faced with the choice of purgatory with our current stars or the potential for something better without. In that light the Bedard and BRob trades (assuming they go through and we get fair value in return) = "winning" for us. Meanwhile Seattle is trying to win a championship now so of course in the short term they're "winning" too.

Your definition appears to be immediate contributions to the major league ball club. So of course we're going to be losing at first, that's the whole point of rebuilding. We're going to be winning at the minor league levels. We're going to be cheaper with more payroll flexibility. We're going to be stockpiled with young arms, if enough of which turn out will give us a talented cheap young rotation and bullpen. Or, we can trade away from that depth to fill position needs.

Again, there is no winner or loser here, just two teams who've satisfied their particular agendas.

[RZNJ]

By next year Jones will make you forget Bedard. The pitching we got is icing on the cake. Great deal for the Birds.

If Bedard stays healthy and pitches to the level he did last year, I don't think anything will make us forget him. That's a significant IF though. Anyway, I can live with it and am looking forward to Jones and the rest.

[JohnnyK27]

Sorry guys but at last check the trade hasn't been announced between last night at around midnight & now... Should I check ESPN ?

Anyway one of the insiders suggested that it was a 6 for 2.

And that you can remove 2 guys from Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, Butler,& Mikikos.

While I'd love to futher dig into this why not wait for the deal to be announced before we do?;)

[Dr. FLK]

OK, it appears like it will be done soon. Everything seems to be in line. Roch has moved on to Roberts. So what do you think of the trade? Who wins? Who loses?

The trade is Bedard for Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio. The O's probably waive Roberson to make room for Sherrill.

My opinion is that over the next 4 years the Mariners won, after that it is anyones guess.


Let me see if I get this straight. The M's get Bedard for 2 years (for sure), with the "possibility" of signing him for more. But, there is also the "possibility" that they don't.

We get Adam Jones, who will be our starting CFer for years. He has the potential to be one of the leagues premier OFers. We get Sherrill, who may close for us right away. And, we get 3 very nice pitching prospects who could be contributing here in a few years. Years 3-4 of your predicted Mariners victory could conceivable be a battle between them having no one left from this deal and us having 4-5 men on our roster from it. I see absolutely no way that they win this deal.

[RZNJ]

Sorry guys but at last check the trade hasn't been announced between last night at around midnight & now... Should I check ESPN ?

Anyway one of the insiders suggested that it was a 6 for 2.

And that you can remove 2 guys from Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, Butler,& Mikikos.

While I'd love to futher dig into this why not wait for the deal to be announced before we do?;)

I may have misread but I think Bigbird was suggesting a BRob to Cubs trade could be a 6 or 2 deal, not the Mariners trade.

[wildcard]

Well, you know what's funny? The Mets gave up less to get Johann Santana and they have the oppurtunity to negotiate a new deal with him before the trade becomes official. The O's are getting a better deal with no negotiating window for the Mariners. So good luck Mariners in two years.

I think they will make a push to sign him soon. He has the risk of injury on his side until he signs long term. He could sign by middle season. It does not appear that the O's tried that hard to sign him.

[Rob H]

The Mariners get Bedard for two years plus the opportunity to sign him long term. Considering that they will give up five minor league players they will probably make him a heck of an offer for him to stay.

And if they're paying that kind of money when you're receiving Jones' production for close to league minimum, they still aren't winning those years.

[RZNJ]

I think they will make a push to sign him soon. He has the risk of injury on his side until he signs long term. He could sign by middle season. It does not appear that the O's tried that hard to sign him.

The fact is that the Mets won't deal their 4 guys without an extension in place with Santana. The Mariners giving us 5 guys and assuming the risk of working a contract extension with Bedard. There's a difference. Right? I have no idea how hard the O's tried to sign him. Frankly, I'm glad they didn't.

[JohnnyK27]

I may have misread but I think Bigbird was suggesting a BRob to Cubs trade could be a 6 or 2 deal, not the Mariners trade.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Belkast View Post
Hopefully mid to late afternoon.

Is it the 5 for 1 that we are all hearing?


Originally Posted by Belkast View Post
Hopefully mid to late afternoon.
Is the trade bigger than a bread box? a Dominican or a Cuban? will O's fans be happy/surprised and M's fans sad?

Originally Posted by JoeOrsulak View Post
Is it the 5 for 1 that we are all hearing?

There were some rumblings of a 6-2 deal recently. Also, don't count your Pie before it's baked.

The Last is BB last post answering Joe O's question about the 5 for 1 :cool:

[JohnnyK27]

I believe he mentioned Pie as someone asked if we could expect Pie/Gallagher shortly after.

see the Bedard Saga thread

[RZNJ]

Yep. Looks like I misread or miscomprehended.

[vatech1994]

I think they will make a push to sign him soon. He has the risk of injury on his side until he signs long term. He could sign by middle season. It does not appear that the O's tried that hard to sign him.

Would you like to place a wager on the chance that EB signs with Seattle at any point in this season? We could repeat it for next season if he doesn't sign this year? I'll give you 2:1 odds.

[Fan4Life]

I would liked to have gotten more MLB ready players also. Although this kind of deal appears to be normal.. IE MCab... if we can spin someone off to help us get Pie or a SS, that will make it a very good deal to me at that time.

[AgentOrange]

Jones for Bedard is a money trade. Read my sig. The fact that we get two prospects that are #2 type upsides is unreal as well. Tillman rates out higher than any of our minor league pitchers right now. Butler is a close second.

Sherrill should be our closer and I think he will inflate his value so we can get a great piece for him at the deadline if we feel the need to. People overpay for great BP pitching if they are in the hunt. And to be honest, even if Sherrill is a bust, it doesn't matter. We have a lot of young guys contending for BP slots. If he does have a good year and you add him to Walker and Bradford, we have some solid arms in the pen to help the young guys develop by putting them in non high pressure situations until they get their feet wet.

As for Bedard for Jones straight up.

http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/

Enjoy.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think I'll save my full thoughts for an article, when it happens. But I think a teaser would go something like "Jones for Bedard, straight-up, would have been defensible."

[wildcard]

And if they're paying that kind of money when you're receiving Jones' production for close to league minimum, they still aren't winning those years.

In that park Bedard should win 20. He will be worth alot.

[AgentOrange]

In that park Bedard should win 20. He will be worth alot.

OK, please read that article I posted. It should shed a little light on the subject for you.

I think you aren't taking into consideration how much good production for league minimum is worth.

[Mark Carver]

I think they will make a push to sign him soon. He has the risk of injury on his side until he signs long term. He could sign by middle season. It does not appear that the O's tried that hard to sign him.

Well, when his agent says that Bedard prefers to go year-to-year on his contract, what is the team suppose to do? Should they bid against themselves?

[japes121]

I love everyone wanting to discuss this, but these "counting your chickens before they hatch trades" give me some very uneasy feelings.

[DrungoHazewood]

In that park Bedard should win 20. He will be worth alot.

What does ballpark have to do with how often he wins? His teammates I can see, but park?

[66-70-83-??]

Your question assumes that "winning" is some agreed upon definition, however, Baltimore and Seattle have two different agendas right now. We are faced with the choice of purgatory with our current stars or the potential for something better without. In that light the Bedard and BRob trades (assuming they go through and we get fair value in return) = "winning" for us. Meanwhile Seattle is trying to win a championship now so of course in the short term they're "winning" too.

Your definition appears to be immediate contributions to the major league ball club. So of course we're going to be losing at first, that's the whole point of rebuilding. We're going to be winning at the minor league levels. We're going to be cheaper with more payroll flexibility. We're going to be stockpiled with young arms, if enough of which turn out will give us a talented cheap young rotation and bullpen. Or, we can trade away from that depth to fill position needs.

Again, there is no winner or loser here, just two teams who've satisfied their particular agendas.

I agree. As I was reading through the first several posts, I was thinking along the same exact lines....

Either no winners or both are winners because each team got what they wanted or else there would be no deal (assuming the deal does indeed go down, fingers crossed).

[wildcard]

The other thing that the Mariners get is the ability to trade Bedard. The could try to sign him until next season then trade him to NYY or Boston for a ton. So it is not just the next two year and a possible extension. It is also a possible trade.

[wildcard]

What does ballpark have to do with how often he wins? His teammates I can see, but park?

It's a pitcher's park. Easier to win 20 in.

[gtown]

What does ballpark have to do with how often he wins? His teammates I can see, but park?It might have a marginal effect on wins. Pitching in a pitcher-friendly park allows a pitcher to go deeper into a game with the same amount of pitches, which gives a bullpen less of a chance to blow a lead.

It's slight, but it can have an effect.

[RZNJ]

The other thing that the Mariners get is the ability to trade Bedard. The could try to sign him until next season then trade him to NYY or Boston for a ton. So it is not just the next two year and a possible extension. It is also a possible trade.


Doesn't that kind of defeat the whole purpose of trading for him in the first place? If the Mariners are thinking of trading Bedard anytime before the end of the 2009 season, it means the trade didn't work out too well for them. Bedard's value also gets lower the closer he gets to FA. See Santana, Johann.

[furryburres]

The fact is that the Mets won't deal their 4 guys without an extension in place with Santana. The Mariners giving us 5 guys and assuming the risk of working a contract extension with Bedard. There's a difference. Right? I have no idea how hard the O's tried to sign him. Frankly, I'm glad they didn't.

The difference between the two? The Mariners have one of the worst front offices in baseball. There's a difference between the Mariners and the Mets.

[amateurfan]

And if they're paying that kind of money when you're receiving Jones' production for close to league minimum, they still aren't winning those years.

Money is not an issue, and it should not ever be an issue. Production is the only issue. Anyone who thinks otherwise is not examining the situation properly. This trade was made for the purposes of production. MLB is so closed door on it finances that anyone who postulates on cost efficiency is talking out of the rear section (and furthermore is subject to ideas about player salary that owners want fans to think). None of us knows how much money each team is bring in. What we do know is that MLB brought in $6 billion. Futhermore, cost efficiency does not equate to more wins. In fact, it doesn't properly equate to anything. On the dollar Jones may be more cost efficient, but he's not going to help a team win more games. There are bad contracts, but I fail to see how this relates to fans, or why some fans have an interest in contracts. The only issue that is important is winning. I have never at the end of a season said, "Man! That's awesome! Not only was Markakis great, but he was cheap too! Thank god he's so cheap! If he weren't so cheap we'd never have a chance at winning!"
When evaluating a trade, the two most important issues are production and length of production. The cost is irrelevant. Santana brought the Twins less because it's one guaranteed year. The reason I can't stand the argument of cost efficiency is because I know that most fans, even the die hards, aren't sitting around assessing the salary that the O's have been delegated by PGA and diligently studying how to produce the most wins per dollar. We just don't know. Furthermore, we don't know the profit margin of these teams. If we knew that, fine, talk about cost efficiency, but we don't so it's a useless discussion.
The Mariners did fine in this trade. Jones is an unproved commodity, and off the ML roster they lost only Sherrill. Of the others, only Mikolio (SP) might have impacted the ML team, and that late in the season. The Mariners gave up future potential for production now. They did well. We did well too. I think it's an even trade, but I would have liked Triunfel.

[Frobby]

The other thing that the Mariners get is the ability to trade Bedard. The could try to sign him until next season then trade him to NYY or Boston for a ton. So it is not just the next two year and a possible extension. It is also a possible trade.

This is a good point. It's not like Bedard will just walk away at the end of 2 years and they will get nothing. They'll either get draft picks, or something better, even if he won't re-sign.

[UMDTerrapins]

I wouldn't trade Bedard for Jones straight up, but Jones has a lot of value for sure. In large part because of what AgentOrange said about getting solid production for the major league minimum, and having a player that productive under your control for a long term. What Jones did this year at a high level and such a young age is very promising. But he hasn't done it in the majors yet. Bedard has established himself as a dominant lefty starter. That's a rare find, even if you have to pay for it. I think the additional prospects that are discussed in the deal are very good balance for the Orioles, and they have to take it. It's just a good deal. If one of the three minor league starters emerge as reliable and effective starter in the majors, this deal is a great deal for the Orioles. I like the chances of that happening, these guys have good arms. Bedard is a pitcher, his career can take a downturn for the smallest reason physically, and he has a history of health issues. I don't worry about the Tommy John surgery so much though. In general, I think both teams get what they want at a cost, but I think Baltimore has a higher potential ceiling with what they're getting back. How much better can Bedard be? And how much more likely is it that he will regress?

Good deal for O's

[AgentOrange]

The other thing that the Mariners get is the ability to trade Bedard. The could try to sign him until next season then trade him to NYY or Boston for a ton. So it is not just the next two year and a possible extension. It is also a possible trade.


Wow. You are really reaching now.

Do you really expect them to get the same type of return that we got for Bedard?

He would have to duplicate his performance from last year and even then he may not net the same return because he will only have 1 year left.

[Rob H]

It's a pitcher's park. Easier to win 20 in.

It would also help the opponents who have to pitch in it. Is there something about Erik Bedard in particular that makes Safeco a better fit for him? (I'll give you a hint, the answer is no)

[AgentOrange]

When this trade goes though, I am going to get opening day tickets in the bleachers and I am going to make a huge Pac-Man sign.

It won't say anything, it will just have a huge Pac-Man about to chomp on a baseball.

[Skywalker76]

Something you guys shouldn't forget is that even if Bedard won't sign an extension with the Mariners they are likely going to get a first round prospects when he hits FA.

So basically it's Bedard + One first rounder vs Jones etc...

I think it's an ok deal but in oktober or november I had hoped to get more for Bedard.

[OsLuvrInKy]

Sorry guys but at last check the trade hasn't been announced between last night at around midnight & now... Should I check ESPN ?

Anyway one of the insiders suggested that it was a 6 for 2.

And that you can remove 2 guys from Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, Butler,& Mikikos.

While I'd love to futher dig into this why not wait for the deal to be announced before we do? ;)

Would have to agree with you johnny. How can we ANYLIZE a trade that 1, is not completed, and 2, we have no true idea of who we are getting (other than Jones) or who we are sending (6 for 2?).

Please people, lets not give this deal the OH kiss of death.....

[danone82]

This is a good point. It's not like Bedard will just walk away at the end of 2 years and they will get nothing. They'll either get draft picks, or something better, even if he won't re-sign.

I didn't see this mention anywhere....but does anyone think that Bedard could/would resigned with us 2 years from now if this team moves into the direction we all hope it will? assuming of coarse he makes it to FA.

[Sports Guy]

So, to play WC's little game, we are to assume Bedard stays an extra 2 years and Tillman and Butler take forever to get here?

I can twist it to sound good too.

So, Bedard has shoulder surgery this July and misses a year. BUtler and Tillman end the year in AA. Jones would have won ROY if eligible and Sherrill was dealt for 2 high end prospects, one being ML ready.

Who wins then?

[AgentOrange]

Something you guys shouldn't forget is that even if Bedard won't sign an extension with the Mariners they are likely going to get a first round prospects when he hits FA.

So basically it's Bedard + One first rounder vs Jones etc...

I think it's an ok deal but in oktober or november I had hoped to get more for Bedard.

Well I don't think you can say that it is Bedard + one first rounder vs Jones.

It is more like over the live of the contract

2008 Jones vs Bedard
2009 Jones vs Bedard
2010 Jones vs 1st Rounder
2011 Jones vs 1st Rounder
2012 Jones vs 1st Rounder
2013 Jones vs 1st Rounder

But what you don't see is Tillman or Butler in that picture.

One of those years, you may see Tillman as one of the Orioles' top starters. And if that happens, it is a clear win for the Birds as far as value given up vs value recieved.

I can't comment on the M's side to be honest, because it is hard to see how Bedard could impact them at this time. I still don't think they make the playoffs. And if they don't, it is a loss for them as an organization, IMO.

[Ruzious]

I may have misread but I think Bigbird was suggesting a BRob to Cubs trade could be a 6 or 2 deal, not the Mariners trade.
That's when the 40 man roster gets extended to 50? ;)

[Rob H]

So, to play WC's little game, we are to assume Bedard stays an extra 2 years and Tillman and Butler take forever to get here?

Not only that, but Bedard gets to pitch at Safeco during his home games, but they relocate to a more neutral ballpark when the other pitcher comes out.

Interestingly enough, if my memory of Safeco is correct, in that it suppresses HR... Bedard actually wouldn't be helped by it as much as most of his opponents would, due to his high groundball rate.

[bigbird]

Most know that I'm the last guy who wants to trade a stud major league player for prospects but this is a deal that had to be made. The return is too good to pass up. Our pitching depth allows us to deal some for other needs. The trades of Tejada and Bedard also gives us a payroll to now grab a superstar from the free agent market.

This is a very good deal for the O's. I'll be happy when it's announced though:) Wonder if the weather will delay physicals today:p

[DrungoHazewood]

It might have a marginal effect on wins. Pitching in a pitcher-friendly park allows a pitcher to go deeper into a game with the same amount of pitches, which gives a bullpen less of a chance to blow a lead.

It's slight, but it can have an effect.

Slight is the key word here. Quality of teammates and lucky/unlucky run support is much more important than the ability to go an extra 1/3 or 2/3 innings a start.

[Sports Guy]

Most know that I'm the last guy who wants to trade a stud major league player for prospects but this is a deal that had to be made. The return is too good to pass up. Our pitching depth allows us to deal some for other needs. The trades of Tejada and Bedard also gives us a payroll to now grab a superstar from the free agent market.

This is a very good deal for the O's. I'll be happy when it's announced though:) Wonder if the weather will delay physicals today:p

Yea, if BB likes this deal, it says something, especially thinks he believe AM is satan. :D (i kid BB)

The saved money is a good point...Obviously the money owed to Bedard was great for his production and Tejada's contract wasn't bad either but the bottom line is that is still about 46 million off your payroll the next 2 years...That is a lot of money.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, i still don't think the Orioles gained anything by waiting this long.

This is a deal I would think Seattle agrees to weeks ago.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is a good point. It's not like Bedard will just walk away at the end of 2 years and they will get nothing. They'll either get draft picks, or something better, even if he won't re-sign.

But when evaluating the deal you have to assume that's the baseline. The Orioles could do exactly the same thing. Bedard's current value is the combination of his ability as a pitcher and any possible return you get from him in the future.

I think it's pretty clear that the only reason the Mariners make this deal is the assumption that his pitching will propel them into the postseason. Any value he has in trade or draft picks is a fallback. They obviously aren't dealing three top 100 prospects on the hope that they'll get one or two good prospects back in an '09 deadline deal.

[AgentOrange]

Yea, if BB likes this deal, it says something, especially thinks he believe AM is satan. :D (i kid BB)

The saved money is a good point...Obviously the money owed to Bedard was great for his production and Tejada's contract wasn't bad either but the bottom line is that is still about 46 million off your payroll the next 2 years...That is a lot of money.

Not to mention we may still get the same net worth out of Jones and Scott that we did out of Bedard and Tejada over the next two years.

I think it is a great job so far by MacPhail.

10 for 2 if this trade goes down. The Seattle trade had a ton more quality as well.

[centralpaosfan]

BTW, i still don't think the Orioles gained anything by waiting this long.

This is a deal I would think Seattle agrees to weeks ago.

That may be so but maybe it took this long so Mcphail could convince the Cubs to include Pie in a deal if they threw in Sherill as well. Who knows, it's all speculative.

[melankfo]

What you say seems a reasonable projection. Yesterday I checked out Butler's stats on the minor league site. Overall, his season at regular A was unimpressive, but look at the stats on his "Last 10 games". He really seemed to pull it together! Walks went way down, likewise hits per inning. Maybe that's what drew the O's attention, plus his youth and good size.

[vatech1994]

The other thing that the Mariners get is the ability to trade Bedard. The could try to sign him until next season then trade him to NYY or Boston for a ton. So it is not just the next two year and a possible extension. It is also a possible trade.

Santana yielded a poor bounty with one year to FA and Bos & NY didn't beat the Mets offer despite needing Santana, why is Bedard going to yield more? Especially since Bedard would never sign an extension in Bos & NY. Come on WC, you are really reaching now.

[LookinUp]

Not to mention we may still get the same net worth out of Jones and Scott that we did out of Bedard and Tejada over the next two years.

I think it is a great job so far by MacPhail.

10 for 2 if this trade goes down. The Seattle trade had a ton more quality as well.

That is the bottom line. Jones is a great get but there's a lot more to this strategy. If this trade goes down as rumored we will have added 3 high-ceiling pitching prospects to our stable (Patton, Butler, Tillman) along with a few other pitchers with very decent upside. If the Cubs rumored deal goes down you can add Gallagher, a 4th high-ceiling prospect.

What McPhail will have done is strongly increase the odds that our staff in 2010 will be very very good. Since we're dealing with prospects, it's hard to pencil anyone in. However, the more good prospects we get the better chances that we'll have a stud rotation in a couple of years.

Huge kudos to McPhail if this all goes down. This is a fundamentally strong rebuild we're watching here.

[NewMarketSean]

Wildcard is looking at this trade the wrong way. You don't win or lose when you make trades. You make the moves that you think are best for your team at that moment, and trading Bedard for a "can't miss" CF prospect in Jones and 4(!) pitching prospects is what we needed to do.

[BedardisAce]

I like the deal, especially if we can deal Sherrill at the deadline. I have a question though and I want to hear some thoughts. Mickolio certainly has a major league ready body (he's a big boy) and pitched in the majors last season (albeit two thirds of an inning). His MiL numbers don;t seem too bad. Any chance he makes the pen this year?

[Birds90]

Personally, I don't know what to think of this happening. I'm sorry if I can't be any help to this.

[Flip217]

OK, please read that article I posted. It should shed a little light on the subject for you.

I think you aren't taking into consideration how much good production for league minimum is worth.

What article? Did you write one? Why am I so confused?

In the words of Jasper Beardsley (Or was it Hans Moleman?), "There's a who in the what, now?"

[Hank Scorpio]

What article? Did you write one? Why am I so confused?

In the words of Jasper Beardsley (Or was it Hans Moleman?), "There's a who in the what, now?"

It was definitely Jasper. The Simpsons love using that quote - like where Homer steals the sugar... and the beekeepers come to buy it from him.

"The bees are on the what now?"

[kevin mason]

The O's need to get something for Bedard to rebuild the team. Waiting a year or so raises the risk of injury.

Alot of folks are way too optimistic on the players in the deal. This ain't a win/win situation, not when you trade a sure #1 pitcher.

I'm excited the O's are attempting a rebuild. They were on the right track in 1989 with the Devo/Finley/Brady. Somewhere along the lines they got off track....

[Flip217]

It was definitely Jasper. The Simpsons love using that quote - like where Homer steals the sugar... and the beekeepers come to buy it from him.

"The bees are on the what now?"

I'll have to go directly to you from now on when I'm unsure on my Simpson quotes...

But seriously, did AgentOrange write an article that I missed? I really like the Hangouter articles...

[NCRaven]

IF, the trade goes as expected...

In two trades, we receive almost an entire pitching corps -

Starters: Albers, Patton, Tillman and Butler
Relievers: Sherrill, Mickolio, Safarte;

two starting outfielders, one with future stud potential - Scott and Jones;

and a power hitting corner infield prospect, Constanzo.

And, we still have Roberts or whatever we can get for him.

No way we lose. And hopefully it will be a win-win. It does no good for our future efforts to make trades if Bedard bombs in Seattle.

[Sports Guy]

Santana yielded a poor bounty with one year to FA and Bos & NY didn't beat the Mets offer despite needing Santana, why is Bedard going to yield more? Especially since Bedard would never sign an extension in Bos & NY. Come on WC, you are really reaching now.

Both Boston and NY killed the Mets offer but the Twins were morons for waiting too long.

[AgentOrange]

What article? Did you write one? Why am I so confused?

In the words of Jasper Beardsley (Or was it Hans Moleman?), "There's a who in the what, now?"

http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/

[dan the man]

How do the Mariners win over the next 4 years when they might only have Bedard for two? :confused:


Hahaha good freaking point there. Sorry if this was already pointed out but that's a really crucial point, and one of the main reasons this is such a good deal for the O's.

[dkdc]

Some interesting notes from Jayson Stark (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3225433):


Every baseball man we've polled rates the Orioles' return for Bedard as being vastly superior to the Twins' return for Johan Santana, assuming the rumored names are correct.

Adam Jones "oozes tools," said one scout. Another had this review: "I think he'll be a very good offensive player, with exceptional defense." Jones has been compared to both Torii Hunter and Mike Cameron. But the second scout said: "He could be better than either one of those guys." And the primary pitching piece, Chris Tillman, is such a scout favorite that one says: "When it's all said and done, he'll be the one guy in this deal everybody talks about."

And:


If the Orioles don't get a big-league-ready starter out of the Bedard deal, there are rumblings they might bring back Steve Trachsel to chew up some innings.

[Flip217]

http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/

Danke!

.

[AgentOrange]

Chew 'em up Stevie!!!!!

[Shopay]

If the trade goes through, I happy. I believe it is something the O's have to do, and I like the return.

[JTrea81]

I'd rather go with Livan Hernandez than Steve Trachsel...

[psk3170]

Here how I look at it. We just traded the rarest commodity in baseball which is a LH pitcher with great stuff who finally has above average control who has proven he can beat the Yankees and Red Sox consistently with an inferior talented team behind him. Their are at best 3 to 5 LH in all of baseball with Bedard ability and Santana is the only one under 30 like Bedard.

The Orioles in return are getting Seattle's #1 hitting and overall BA prospect from last year at a huge need position for the Orioles in CF Adam Jones. Jones is not eligible this year because he went slightly over the minimum requirements but my guess is he would be #1 again. In my opinion he would be our #1 by a bit over Wieters but basically top 20 in all of baseball like Wieters if we acquire him.

In addition, we get probably the second rarest thing in baseball. A major league proven LH relief pitcher with impeccable control in Sherrill that possibly could close. I keep thinking a similar version of our former Oriole BJ Ryan just before he became a dominant closer and we let him roll out of town.

The third piece is Chris Tillman. The Mariners Top 10 comes out today but I have the BA prospect handbook and he is rated #3 behind Clement, and Aumont and ahead of the almighty Triunfel. Every report I have read this week is not to look at his stats in the CAL league because his numbers at 19 years old were off the charts considering his home park in High desert is one of the worst pitching environments in all the minors. His numbers were better than one of my favorite Orioles prospects Brandon Erbe at the same level at the same age who pitched in a much friendlier pitchers league. This guy has the highest upside in our system pitching wise other than Loewen. He could be a #2 if he stays healthy. Throws in the mid to low 90's with 2 above average major league pitches already plus I love that picture of him with Cal that was posted.

The #4 guy is Tony Butler. He was #4 last year and #12 this year on the BA Mariners prospect list. He is LH and only 20 years old but regressed last year most people think because he played only 30 minutes form his hometown in Wisconsin and had shoulder and durability issues due to never having pitched so many innings being from Wisconsin where baseball is limited to a few months a year. He is a bit bigger but similar in size to Loewen (6-7 218) with similar control and injury issues. Not sure he has Loewen's upside but if all went perfect has the ability to be #2-3 in the majors.

The throw-In (LOL) is a 24 year old 6-9 256 pound monster reliever with a 92-97 mph sinker (sinker ball in Camden Yards limits homers) who has one of the meanest stare downs in the minors apparently. Another Cabrera in term of intimidating size. By the way, he only started playing baseball in the past 3-5 years because their was little organized baseball in his home state of Montana while growing up so he is very raw even though he is older than most prospects.

My take on the trade is the Mariners get something that only 2-3 teams in all of baseball have a true #1 LH pitcher who only continues to get better and has already proven he can beat the best teams and is still young.

The Orioles get 5 very young players with high risk/high reward written all over them. It would be like the Orioles trading the Mariners Rowell (last years #1 for Orioles in BA but not a real comp for Jones), Erbe (comparable to Tillman), the Delmarva version of Adam Loewen (Butler), pre-closer Orioles version of BJ Ryan (Sherrill), and the reliever version of Cabrera with a bit better control.

Does that sound like a trade you would make. I sure would. I would not even hesitate but I also think it serves both teams needs. Seattle is trying to go for it in the next 2-3 years and Bedard will help plus they kept all their top position player talent other than Jones, and The Orioles got what they needed pieces to trade or add to our improving existing minor league talent that will help us compete in 2009 and after not to mention all the money we saved that could be put to better use (TEX???) in the future.

Sorry for the long response.

[Shopay]

BTW, i still don't think the Orioles gained anything by waiting this long.

This is a deal I would think Seattle agrees to weeks ago.

We will never know for sure, but, based what we have heard (granted its speculation), I got to disagree with you here SG. In December, we were hearing that the offer from the M's was Jones, Sherrill and Tillman. Recently (early last week or so), Bavasi says he has put his best and final offer on the table. Then, from all indications, late last week/early this week it appears the teams agree on the framework of a deal from the perspective of what players are involved. Based on this information, I believe AM told Bavasi that the December deal (Jones, Tillman and Sherrill) was not going to get it done, and waited the Mariners out. The Mariners finally increased their offer by including two more prospects (Butler and The Mick). Thus, I believe AM's waiting game netted us two prospects.

[TinCup]

Sorry for the long response.


NO need to apologize! Good post.


I believe it is hard for some on OH to look at this trade "objectively". Clearly those who do not and did not favor trading Bedard are looking at this trade with a certain bias, just as those who are/were in favor of it are as well. With that said, I believe there is plenty of objective information available that suggests this is a real good trade for us, for both teams!

We have/had to make this trade IMO. Our lack of depth and talent of players who are in our control for mulitple years is so glaring, we are forced down this road of trading Bedard and BRob. Get 'em done and move on with e new team!!!

[Sports Guy]

We will never know for sure, but, based what we have heard (granted its speculation), I got to disagree with you here SG. In December, we were hearing that the offer from the M's was Jones, Sherrill and Tillman. Recently (early last week or so), Bavasi says he has put his best and final offer on the table. Then, from all indications, late last week/early this week it appears the teams agree on the framework of a deal from the perspective of what players are involved. Based on this information, I believe AM told Bavasi that the December deal (Jones, Tillman and Sherrill) was not going to get it done, and waited the Mariners out. The Mariners finally increased their offer by including two more prospects (Butler and The Mick). Thus, I believe AM's waiting game netted us two prospects.

Bigbird told us back in December that the 4th player was the issue. It is obvious the Orioles were trying to get Triunfel, Clement or Morrow as the 4th guy.

Had we said back then, give us Butler and its a done deal, i have no doubt it gets done then.

Just because Bavasi said this is my final and best offer is meaningless. That could easily be him saying that we aren't trading any of the other top top guys. Maybe we gained Mickilio by waiting...maybe.

Big deal..Would rather have not gotten him and had a chance to do many other things, like perhaps dealing Mora to the Phils.

[DrungoHazewood]

If the Orioles don't get a big-league-ready starter out of the Bedard deal, there are rumblings they might bring back Steve Trachsel to chew up some innings.

There can't be 50 professional pitchers I'd want less than Steve Trachsel. And by professional I mean people who are currently paid to pitch at any level of the sport.

The PECOTA cards for 2008 aren't out yet but Trachsel may set a new record for collapse rate. When I did some back-of-the-napkin comps for Trachsel's ERA+, K rate, and BB rate last season virtually every comparable pitcher was out of baseball within a season, forced into retirement by hideous performances.

[ijoshyounot]

We never mention this trade when we talk Bedard's value. Bedard allowed 5 steals on him the entire year last year. 4 in 2006. That is a total of 9 steals in two seasons. On top of not letting many people on base, he holds them too.

[health55]

Let me see if I get this straight. The M's get Bedard for 2 years (for sure), with the "possibility" of signing him for more. But, there is also the "possibility" that they don't.

I suspect that the Seattle Mariners found Erik Bedard attractive because they would control him for two years but would not be bound by a long-term commitment.

Two years is a long time ... Erik Bedard could get better, maintain or get worse. The Mariners and Bedard should postpone extension talks until each side has a chance to decide whether they're a good fit.

The worst-case scenario for the Mariners is that Bedard tanks for two years, is neither a Type A nor Type B free agent, and walks after the 2009 season without compensation.

[ON BASE %]

OK, it appears like it will be done soon. Everything seems to be in line. Roch has moved on to Roberts. So what do you think of the trade? Who wins? Who loses?

The trade is Bedard for Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio. The O's probably waive Roberson to make room for Sherrill.

My opinion is that over the next 4 years the Mariners won, after that it is anyones guess.

For the next 4 years the trade at the major league level is Bedard for Jones, Sherrill, and maybe Mickolio. Barring injury which could happen on either side of this trade, the Mariners got the guy that is likely to perform the best.

Bulter and Tilman will likely spend three more years in the minors and a rookie year in the majors before their performance turns into a positive at the major league level. Penn, Olson, Albers, Hoey; their first appearances at the major league level were not pretty. I expect Tillman and Butler to has similar starts to their careers. Then, hopefully they will have very good majors league careers.

MacPhail did not get Morrow or Clement or Balentien. They would all have supplied more, sooner at the major league level. The Cinny trade might be as good or better without Bruce. Jones should be a very good player.

So, I think the Mariners win until 2012, then there is the chance the O's may win. It will be a long, long time before this trade can be fully evaluated.

Wildcard, let me preface my evaluation like this. I am not taking into account any extenuating factors or opportunity costs (i.e. possibility Bedard extends, other trades, impact on strategy, or lost draft picks). The only facts I am accounting for are that Bedard is under contractual control for 2 more seasons, Jones for 5, and Sherrill for 2.

I predict that the Orioles to receive more marginal wins from Jones/Sherrill over their 7 contractually controlled seasons than Bedard over 2.

Any contribution from Tillman, Butler, and Mickolio would be a bonus IMO. And I think it is reasonable to expect at least a few marginal wins from that trio of pitchers.

Again, this is just a very quick first take and I think it is a good deal for the Orioles. When time allows I will look at this transaction closer and scrutinize in depth. This is my last day here at work and am headed off for a ski vacation. So I don't have time to go into much more detail than this.

I realize you have been an advocate of keeping both Bedard/Roberts and definitely respect your opinion. For better or worse it appears that MacPhail is committing to a rebuild. We'll just have to wait and see what happens from here...

[dkdc]

The only facts I am accounting for are that Bedard is under contractual control for 2 more seasons, Jones for 5, and Sherrill for 2.


Sherrill has 2 years, 147 days of service time according to Cot's Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/seattle-mariners.html).

He should be under Oriole control for 4 more years.

[vatech1994]

Both Boston and NY killed the Mets offer but the Twins were morons for waiting too long.

Don't kid yourself. The Twins thought the Mets offer was a better deal or they would have gone back to Boston and NY. There is no way NY & Bos wouldn't go back to previous offers. Neither team has made other mades that would have lowered their need for Santana. I don't agree with the Twins stance if the NY & Bos deals were as adverstised. Maybe they weren't as advertised or maybe the Twins evaluate the prospects differently than the rest of us.

Nothing was "lost" by waiting.

[Frobby]

Sherrill has 2 years, 147 days of service time according to Cot's Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/seattle-mariners.html).

He should be under Oriole control for 4 more years.

And Jones for 6, not 5.

[vatech1994]

Bigbird told us back in December that the 4th player was the issue. It is obvious the Orioles were trying to get Triunfel, Clement or Morrow as the 4th guy.

Had we said back then, give us Butler and its a done deal, i have no doubt it gets done then.

Just because Bavasi said this is my final and best offer is meaningless. That could easily be him saying that we aren't trading any of the other top top guys. Maybe we gained Mickilio by waiting...maybe.

Big deal..Would rather have not gotten him and had a chance to do many other things, like perhaps dealing Mora to the Phils.

You keep trying to sell us this, but I'm not buying it. Trying to evaluate a trade based on when something became available is total conjecture since none of us are in the room. Even if we only got Mickilio added, great. That is more than we had before and not a game has gone by. But you know what, the trade hasn't even gone down yet so I can't even say that right now.

You believe we've missed out on stuff. Maybe we have, but again you're too early. Evaluate things once they've all played out. Only then will we have an idea what should have happened.

If Mora was going to go to the Phils, he would be gone already IMO. MacPhail isn't stupid. The Phils signed what's his name because that is the move they wanted to make. End of story.

[PaulFolk]

You keep trying to sell us this, but I'm not buying it. Trying to evaluate a trade based on when something became available is total conjecture since none of us are in the room. Even if we only got Mickilio added, great. That is more than we had before and not a game has gone by. But you know what, the trade hasn't even gone down yet so I can't even say that right now.

You believe we've missed out on stuff. Maybe we have, but again you're too early. Evaluate things once they've all played out. Only then will we have an idea what should have happened.

If Mora was going to go to the Phils, he would be gone already IMO. MacPhail isn't stupid. The Phils signed what's his name because that is the move they wanted to make. End of story.
I agree with everything in this post. It's a bit silly to suggest that holding on to Bedard for so long somehow had an effect on whether Melvin Mora would be traded. The two have nothing to do with each other. If the Phils had wanted Mora, the O's could've worked something out.

[LookinUp]

If Mora was going to go to the Phils, he would be gone already IMO. MacPhail isn't stupid. The Phils signed what's his name because that is the move they wanted to make. End of story.

Agreed. We already have Moore and Huff at 3b so there was nothing keeping us from dropping Mora at any time if any decent offer was ever out there. I'll go on record as saying More hasn't been traded because we cannot trade him w/o taking on too much of his salary for Angelos' taste.

[El Gordo]

I have a lot of opinions I want to express, but as I said 3 weeks ago, I won't do it until it has been formally announced that a trade has occurred. Believe me, I'll have plenty to say.I wish you would express them now Frobby I would like to hear them, and by the time this trade finally gets announced I can't gaurantee I'll still be on this earth. I'm not getting any younger:002_sbiggrin:

[Three Run Homer]

I'm a bit disappointed in the assumed trade, because I really wanted to get Triunfel back. Nevertheless this is a good trade for the O's and I hope it goes through.

In Adam Jones the O's are getting a high-ceiling prospect at a premium defensive position who is major league ready. That's a rare and valuable commodity. Put it this way--Adam Jones is more valuable prospect now than Nick Markakis was prior to the 2006 season. Jones alone makes this a good trade.

I don't understand why we wanted Sherrill back, frankly. He's at an age where he can help a good team contend, but he doesn't make sense for the Orioles right now. There's talk about flipping him for someone else, but there was similar talk for Luke Scott as well, and it appears Scott is going to be our opening day left fielder. I suspect that PA or AM insisted that that O's get a presentable "proven major leaguer" to be a closer. I think that's a waste of trade equity. If we had let the Mariners keep Sherrill, Butler and Mickolio we might have gotten Triunfel or Clement back.

Tillman and Butler are valuable pieces, although it's hard for me to get that excited about a 19 or 20-year old pitcher at A ball, no matter how good his stuff is supposed to be. Too many things can happen along the way to the major leagues. Still, at least there's a chance that one of them will be something special; throw them in a hopper with Brandon Erbe, Chorye Spoone, Brad Bergesen and Zach Britton, and hopefully 1-2 good major league starters will pop out in 3 years.

Mickolio has good AA/AAA numbers and is considerably younger and therefore more valuable than Rocky Cherry or Dennis Sarfate. I think he'll be a useful bullpen piece quickly.

Overall, I'd say this is a better haul than the Twins got for Santana or the A's got for Haren, mainly because Adam Jones has a higher ceiling than anyone that came back to the Twins or A's. So I'd chalk this trade up as a success for MacPhail, assuming it goes through.

[Sports Guy]

Don't kid yourself. The Twins thought the Mets offer was a better deal or they would have gone back to Boston and NY. Except those offers were no longer on the table.

There is no way NY & Bos wouldn't go back to previous offersYes there is...The Yankees decided to take Hughes off the table and the Red Sox didn't want to tade Lester.
Nothing was "lost" by waiting

Except better players.

[Sports Guy]

You keep trying to sell us this, but I'm not buying it. Of coruse you aren't...When in doubt, vaTech gives the Orioles the benefit of the doubt.

You believe we've missed out on stuff. Maybe we have, but again you're too early. Evaluate things once they've all played out. Only then will we have an idea what should have happened.
I have said repeatedly that if AM is able to make other moves, then waiting didn't matter...At this point, it looks very unlikely that he will be able to consumate another 2-4 trades this offseason.

If Mora was going to go to the Phils, he would be gone already IMO. This isn't true.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with everything in this post. It's a bit silly to suggest that holding on to Bedard for so long somehow had an effect on whether Melvin Mora would be traded. The two have nothing to do with each other. If the Phils had wanted Mora, the O's could've worked something out.

BRob has nothing to do with bedard yet we know they aren't trading BRob until the Bedard situation resolves itself.

Of course it is silly..In fact, it is moronic but its still how the Orioles are treating the offseason.

[El Gordo]

BTW, i still don't think the Orioles gained anything by waiting this long.

This is a deal I would think Seattle agrees to weeks ago.Well isn't that convenient for you to say, since no one can prove it one way or the other.:002_sbiggrin:

[ON BASE %]

Sherrill has 2 years, 147 days of service time according to Cot's Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/seattle-mariners.html).

He should be under Oriole control for 4 more years.

I stand corrected! I took a quick glance at Sherril on baseball reference and saw 4 years with the Mariners. I didn't factor the short stints into the service time.

[El Gordo]

There can't be 50 professional pitchers I'd want less than Steve Trachsel. And by professional I mean people who are currently paid to pitch at any level of the sport.

The PECOTA cards for 2008 aren't out yet but Trachsel may set a new record for collapse rate. When I did some back-of-the-napkin comps for Trachsel's ERA+, K rate, and BB rate last season virtually every comparable pitcher was out of baseball within a season, forced into retirement by hideous performances.
Very true, but you probably were saying much the same thing last season.

[DrungoHazewood]

Very true, but you probably were saying much the same thing last season.

Before he signed? Yes, but not as vehemently. His 2007 peripherals were far worse than his mediocre 2006 numbers. Anything I said a year ago regarding Trachsel is doubled this year.

[El Gordo]

Before he signed? Yes, but not as vehemently. His 2007 peripherals were far worse than his mediocre 2006 numbers. Anything I said a year ago regarding Trachsel is doubled this year.
Did his 2006 numbers project accurately to his actaul 2007 numbers?

[Shopay]

Bigbird told us back in December that the 4th player was the issue. It is obvious the Orioles were trying to get Triunfel, Clement or Morrow as the 4th guy.

Had we said back then, give us Butler and its a done deal, i have no doubt it gets done then.

Just because Bavasi said this is my final and best offer is meaningless. That could easily be him saying that we aren't trading any of the other top top guys. Maybe we gained Mickilio by waiting...maybe.

Big deal..Would rather have not gotten him and had a chance to do many other things, like perhaps dealing Mora to the Phils.

A little over a week ago, you said that it was your opinion that Jones, Tillman and Sherrill are coming as part of the Bedard deal, and the teams are fighting over a fourth player. (See the thread you started on 1/24 entitled "Do You Make This Deal?"). You further state in the thread that you would do the deal for simply Jones, Tillman and Sherrill, and, IIRC, in other threads you have critized AM for not taking the deal, thereby purportedly wasting time. Based on everything I have read (and I'm speculating here as you are), AM, using good negotiating tactics (ask for more than you will settle for), was requesting the fourth player be Murrow, Clement or Truinfel. OTOH, Bavasi was probably countering with a marginal prospect. In the end, Bavasi put his "best and final offer" on the table, which was Butler and The Mike. It wasn't what AM requested, but it was better than the marginal prospect Bavasi had been offering previously. Bavasi is no stranger to negotiations, so I doubt he had his best offer on the table in December. Moreover, even if this didn't happen, I applaud AM for waiting this out. That is what good negotiators do (e.g., Scott Boras).

[33rdst]

This is a great trade for the Orioles, especially when you consider that we we're likely to lose Bedard and only get a draft pick back for him if we keep him.

Adam Jones is a complete stud. The numbers he put up at AAA as a TWENTY ONE year old are incomprehensible. Tillman is likely to be a top of the rotation starter. Sherrill will not only serve as an excellent stop gap closer until the deadline but he is likely to bring us a couple of high end prospects aas well. The two prospects we are getting are top twenty guys for Seattle. Physically they're both mosters with huge potential. I love this deal.

Now we need to complete the work and trade Roberts and a few veterans.

[El Gordo]

A little over a week ago, you said that it was your opinion that Jones, Tillman and Sherrill are coming as part of the Bedard deal, and the teams are fighting over a fourth player. (See the thread you started on 1/24 entitled "Do You Make This Deal?"). You further state in the thread that you would do the deal for simply Jones, Tillman and Sherrill, and, IIRC, in other threads you have critized AM for not taking the deal, thereby purportedly wasting time. Based on everything I have read (and I'm speculating here as you are), AM, using good negotiating tactics (ask for more than you will settle for), was requesting the fourth player be Murrow, Clement or Truinfel. OTOH, Bavasi was probably countering with a marginal prospect. In the end, Bavasi put his "best and final offer" on the table, which was Butler and The Mike. It wasn't what AM requested, but it was better than the marginal prospect Bavasi had been offering previously. Bavasi is no stranger to negotiations, so I doubt he had his best offer on the table in December. Moreover, even if this didn't happen, I applaud AM for waiting this out. That is what good negotiators do (e.g., Scott Boras).We'll never know until they publish their memoirs. Pointless argument until then IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

Did his 2006 numbers project accurately to his actaul 2007 numbers?

His trends continued. His strikeout rate has gone from 5.4 to 4.8 to 3.2 the last three years.

His walk rate continued to decline over the same period from 2.8 to 4.26 to 4.33. And his command rate had a related decline. His 2007 K:BB ratio was the worst of any pitcher (125+ innings) since 1975.

I don't see any indicators that show Trachsel improving last year or next year.

[RZNJ]

Bigbird told us back in December that the 4th player was the issue. It is obvious the Orioles were trying to get Triunfel, Clement or Morrow as the 4th guy.

Had we said back then, give us Butler and its a done deal, i have no doubt it gets done then.
Just because Bavasi said this is my final and best offer is meaningless. That could easily be him saying that we aren't trading any of the other top top guys. Maybe we gained Mickilio by waiting...maybe.

Big deal..Would rather have not gotten him and had a chance to do many other things, like perhaps dealing Mora to the Phils.


As usual there is no gray area. You have no doubt. How wonderful. Butler is a top prospect and Mickolio is no slouch. You have no idea who they were offering as the 4th guy back then. :)

[El Gordo]

His trends continued. His strikeout rate has gone from 5.4 to 4.8 to 3.2 the last three years.

His walk rate continued to decline over the same period from 2.8 to 4.26 to 4.33. And his command rate had a related decline. His 2007 K:BB ratio was the worst of any pitcher (125+ innings) since 1975.

I don't see any indicators that show Trachsel improving last year or next year.
How did he manage to get all the quality starts or wins he he did, or bring back so much at the trade deadline with those awful numbers? There ought to be a law.:eek:

[El Gordo]

As usual there is no gray area. You have no doubt. How wonderful. Butler is a top prospect and Mickolio is no slouch. You have no idea who they were offering as the 4th guy back then. :)We have no certainty that Jones was on the table back then. I remember reading reports that he wasn't, that they were pushing Balentien first.

[Sports Guy]

As usual there is no gray area. You have no doubt. How wonderful. Butler is a top prospect and Mickolio is no slouch. You have no idea who they were offering as the 4th guy back then. :)

No I don't have any idea...But I know what we wanted and that a guy like Butler would have been a reasonable common ground.

Face it, whether anyone wants to say it or not, AM held out in hopes that Wlad, Morrow, Clement or Triunfel would be added to Tillman, Jones and Sherrill. That is what he wanted and he didn't get it. So, his gamble of holding out MAY have cost him the chance to do other things. Now, when i say that, i am saying that because of the stated reason of wanting to see what happens with bedard before deciding what to do with everyone else. If AM is able to still make another 2-4 trades and get rid of the clutter and improve the positional talent, fine..Waiting was no harm, no foul.

I don't blame him for waiting some time to see if one of the other big 4 would be included and I am not even saying he should have jumped at Butler and the other 3 immediately...But by the time you got around Xmas and the first of the year, it was time to get moving.

No doubt in my mind that this trade could have been completed at least a month ago with the same players in it as it looks like will be in it now.

[clapdiddy]

No doubt in my mind that this trade could have been completed at least a month ago.

Yeah, but would the physicals already be done? ;)

[NewMarketSean]

No I don't have any idea...But I know what we wanted and that a guy like Butler would have been a reasonable common ground.

Face it, whether anyone wants to say it or not, AM held out in hopes that Wlad, Morrow, Clement or Triunfel would be added to Tillman, Jones and Sherrill. That is what he wanted and he didn't get it. So, his gamble of holding out MAY have cost him the chance to do other things. Now, when i say that, i am saying that because of the stated reason of wanting to see what happens with bedard before deciding what to do with everyone else. If AM is able to still make another 2-4 trades and get rid of the clutter and improve the positional talent, fine..Waiting was no harm, no foul.

I don't blame him for waiting some time to see if one of the other big 4 would be included and I am not even saying he should have jumped at Butler and the other 3 immediately...But by the time you got around Xmas and the first of the year, it was time to get moving.

No doubt in my mind that this trade could have been completed at least a month ago.

I also think he wanted to see what happened with Santana too. He wanted more teams involved. It sounds like the Indians threw their hat in there for a minute after Santana was gone... but it looks like it's Seattle or bust.

I don't blame him holding out, but he should have been making smaller moves on the side while he was waiting. It kills me that WAS got Dukes and Milledge for almost nothing when we could have easily done similar deals to get them.

[PaulFolk]

If Mora was going to go to the Phils, he would be gone already IMO.


This isn't true.
This reply doesn't make sense. How can you possibly know this?

[ON BASE %]

His trends continued. His strikeout rate has gone from 5.4 to 4.8 to 3.2 the last three years.

His walk rate continued to decline over the same period from 2.8 to 4.26 to 4.33. And his command rate had a related decline. His 2007 K:BB ratio was the worst of any pitcher (125+ innings) since 1975.

I don't see any indicators that show Trachsel improving last year or next year.

Ouch! And to think we actually received Moore and Cherry for Traschel. But I am in your camp on this one. Let's quit while we're ahead with Traschel.

[RZNJ]

No I don't have any idea...But I know what we wanted and that a guy like Butler would have been a reasonable common ground.

Face it, whether anyone wants to say it or not, AM held out in hopes that Wlad, Morrow, Clement or Triunfel would be added to Tillman, Jones and Sherrill. That is what he wanted and he didn't get it. So, his gamble of holding out MAY have cost him the chance to do other things. Now, when i say that, i am saying that because of the stated reason of wanting to see what happens with bedard before deciding what to do with everyone else. If AM is able to still make another 2-4 trades and get rid of the clutter and improve the positional talent, fine..Waiting was no harm, no foul.

I don't blame him for waiting some time to see if one of the other big 4 would be included and I am not even saying he should have jumped at Butler and the other 3 immediately...But by the time you got around Xmas and the first of the year, it was time to get moving.

No doubt in my mind that this trade could have been completed at least a month ago.


Let's agree to disagree then. I have no idea what could have been done a month ago. I certainly feel strongly that we couldn't have done any better a month ago. I feel pretty sure that we did at least a little better by waiting. Maybe a lot better if Butler was added in as an extra player or instead of a fringe prospect. We just don't know. Except for you, I guess. LOL

If this is AM's second big move, I have to give him high grades on both moves. Therefore, he's gained some of my confidence to this point. So what I'm saying is, the results speak for themselves. That's all I can judge him on. Judging him on conjecture of what we might have been able to get for Jay Gibbons or Melvin Mora 1 month ago is pretty tough.

[vatech1994]

Except those offers were no longer on the table.
Yes there is...The Yankees decided to take Hughes off the table and the Red Sox didn't want to tade Lester.

Except better players.

You don't know this at all. You're guessing again and acting like it is fact. If a poll was conducted around MLB about this question, the answer your promoting would lose by a landslide IMO.

[vatech1994]

BRob has nothing to do with bedard yet we know they aren't trading BRob until the Bedard situation resolves itself.

Of course it is silly..In fact, it is moronic but its still how the Orioles are treating the offseason.

Actually BRob has a lot to do with Bedard. Since BRob is bringing multiple prospects like Bedard, we need to fit them a bit. Mora doesn't have that issue.

Don't compare the BRob situation to the Mora situation. They are only connected in your mind.

[Sports Guy]

This reply doesn't make sense. How can you possibly know this?

Because AM has held back doing other moves to see what he gets for Bedard.

[Sports Guy]

You don't know this at all. You're guessing again and acting like it is fact. If a poll was conducted around MLB about this question, the answer your promoting would lose by a landslide IMO.

There is no doubt that Hughes was on the table and then taken off.

Gammons said the other day that hughes, Melky and Marquez were on the table.

Remember, the Twins said they wanted Kennedy as the third player with Hughes and MCab.

[PaulFolk]

Because AM has held back doing other moves to see what he gets for Bedard.
We've heard speculation that he's holding off on trading Roberts before the Bedard deal is done. We haven't heard that he's holding off on trading everybody else. If any teams had popped in with decent offers for the likes of Mora, Huff, Payton, etc. over the past few months, I think he'd pull the trigger.

Also, is there anything to suggest that the Phillies were interested in Mora? I don't remember seeing any reports to that effect.

[Sports Guy]

Actually BRob has a lot to do with Bedard. Since BRob is bringing multiple prospects like Bedard, we need to fit them a bit. Mora doesn't have that issue.

Don't compare the BRob situation to the Mora situation. They are only connected in your mind.
Who cares what BRob brings you in relation to Bedard? Get the talent and sort it out later.

[Sports Guy]

We've heard speculation that he's holding off on trading Roberts before the Bedard deal is done. We haven't heard that he's holding off on trading everybody else. If any teams had popped in with decent offers for the likes of Mora, Huff, Payton, etc. over the past few months, I think he'd pull the trigger.Speculation I was hearing is different than what is being reported.


Also, is there anything to suggest that the Phillies were interested in Mora? I don't remember seeing any reports to that effect.Belkast said the Phillies were interested.

[Shopay]

No I don't have any idea...But I know what we wanted and that a guy like Butler would have been a reasonable common ground.

Face it, whether anyone wants to say it or not, AM held out in hopes that Wlad, Morrow, Clement or Triunfel would be added to Tillman, Jones and Sherrill. That is what he wanted and he didn't get it. So, his gamble of holding out MAY have cost him the chance to do other things. Now, when i say that, i am saying that because of the stated reason of wanting to see what happens with bedard before deciding what to do with everyone else. If AM is able to still make another 2-4 trades and get rid of the clutter and improve the positional talent, fine..Waiting was no harm, no foul.

I don't blame him for waiting some time to see if one of the other big 4 would be included and I am not even saying he should have jumped at Butler and the other 3 immediately...But by the time you got around Xmas and the first of the year, it was time to get moving.

No doubt in my mind that this trade could have been completed at least a month ago.

SG, from experience (I have been involved in plenty of negotiations, and perhaps you have as well, I don't know), if you have reasonably good negotiators on both sides (I expect both AM and Bavasi fall into this category), it always take a while to get to that common ground. I've been involved in numerous mediations that have varied in their scheduled length, and rarely, and I mean rarely, have those matters been settled until late on the final day. I've gone into many of these knowing where it should settle, but parties/people tend to hold on to their bottom line until the "midnight hour." Further, a true deadline absolutely helps drive settlement/agreement, and here, there wasn't a true deadline, other than what the teams arbitrarily decided was the date. And I believe for both teams, this date was closer to Janaury 31, then any date in December. If this deal had been negotiated around the July 31st trade deadline, I would agree with your premise that the deal could have been finalized within a few days, but the difference there is you have a true trade deadline forcing bottom line offers. Anyway, I don't have anymore to say on this topic -- we are just going to have to agree to disagree.

[PaulFolk]

Speculation I was hearing is different than what is being reported.
Speculation from where? Can you elaborate on this?

[El Gordo]

There is no doubt that Hughes was on the table and then taken off.

Gammons said the other day that hughes, Melky and Marquez were on the table.

Remember, the Twins said they wanted Kennedy as the third player with Hughes and MCab.
I have to agree with you on this. The Twins waited to long on that one IMO and gave Hal time to join with Cashmen in convincing Hank that Santana wasn't worth the price they ere offering. I also think Boston blew it by not offering Ellsbury with Lester. The difference between Ellsbury and Crisp is not worth the difference between Santana and Lester and a virtual dynasty for the next 6 years or more.

[Sports Guy]

Speculation from where? Can you elaborate on this?

Insiders both from people I know and those on this board that weren't saying things publicly.

[PaulFolk]

Insiders both from people I know and those on this board that weren't saying things publicly.
What were they saying?

[Sports Guy]

What were they saying?

That things were on hold waiting to see what happened with Bedard and, to a degree, BRob.

They wanted to see what the return was before trading others.

Trust me when I say that I agree with you that it makes no sense but it was still how they were doing things apparently.

Boom Boom Dixon showed us that AM has done many trades in Feb and March. Guys like Mora, Payton, Millar, et al can still be dealt. I am not disputing that.

But PERHAPS(and i can't stress that word strongly enough) we lost out on chances to make moves while kicking our tires with Bedard.

As i have consistently said, if AM is able to get rid of these guys and still shape the team by OD, waiting on bedard will not have mattered one bit. It will have pissed us off but who the hell cares at the end of the day.

But if he doesn't get those moves done and doesn't shape this team better than it is, i think waiting will have had a big reason as to why that happened and to top it all off, i don't believe that waiting allowed us to get a better deal.

I just can't fathom that Seattle would have said no to adding Butler 4-6 weeks ago. AM was clearly holding out for better players and was told no.

[Hank Scorpio]

That things were on hold waiting to see what happened with Bedard and, to a degree, BRob.

They wanted to see what the return was before trading others.

Trust me when I say that I agree with you that it makes no sense but it was still how they were doing things apparently.

Boom Boom Dixon showed us that AM has done many trades in Feb and March. Guys like Mora, Payton, Millar, et al can still be dealt. I am not disputing that.

But PERHAPS(and i can't stress that word strongly enough) we lost out on chances to make moves while kicking our tires with Bedard.

As i have consistently said, if AM is able to get rid of these guys and still shape the team by OD, waiting on bedard will not have mattered one bit. It will have pissed us off but who the hell cares at the end of the day.

But if he doesn't get those moves done and doesn't shape this team better than it is, i think waiting will have had a big reason as to why that happened and to top it all off, i don't believe that waiting allowed us to get a better deal.

I just can't fathom that Seattle would have said no to adding Butler 4-6 weeks ago. AM was clearly holding out for better players and was told no.

You're okay with this return for Bedard, right?

[Shopay]

That things were on hold waiting to see what happened with Bedard and, to a degree, BRob.

They wanted to see what the return was before trading others.

Trust me when I say that I agree with you that it makes no sense but it was still how they were doing things apparently.

Boom Boom Dixon showed us that AM has done many trades in Feb and March. Guys like Mora, Payton, Millar, et al can still be dealt. I am not disputing that.

But PERHAPS(and i can't stress that word strongly enough) we lost out on chances to make moves while kicking our tires with Bedard.

As i have consistently said, if AM is able to get rid of these guys and still shape the team by OD, waiting on bedard will not have mattered one bit. It will have pissed us off but who the hell cares at the end of the day.

But if he doesn't get those moves done and doesn't shape this team better than it is, i think waiting will have had a big reason as to why that happened and to top it all off, i don't believe that waiting allowed us to get a better deal.

I just can't fathom that Seattle would have said no to adding Butler 4-6 weeks ago. AM was clearly holding out for better players and was told no.

I'm not saying I agree with the above bolded language because I don't, but, even if it is true, I can't fault AM for holding out for better players. You never truly know what you could have gotten if you don't push it to the limit. And let me tell you, it's far easier to simply say early in a negotiation, well I've gotten enough, no reason to push this any further, then to hold out for that final best offer. IMO, that is clearly what has made Scott Boras so successful.

WRT to some of our older players, it would be nice to get rid of them now, but unless they are truly blocking someone, I won't be devastated if they aren't moved, as they may actually have more value at the trade dealine.

[Sports Guy]

You're okay with this return for Bedard, right?

Yes...Its fine...Not jumping for joy or anything but I think it was a good and fair return....I am very happy with Jones and Tillman.

Sherrill is the wild card to me..What do we have planned for him in the long run?

[Sports Guy]

I'm not saying I agree with the above bolded language because I don't, but, even if it is true, I can't fault AM for holding out for better players. You never truly know what you could have gotten if you don't push it to the limit. And let me tell you, it's far easier to simply say early in a negotiation, well I've gotten enough, no reason to push this any further, then to hold out for that final best offer. IMO, that is clearly what has made Scott Boras so successful.

WRT to some of our older players, it would be nice to get rid of them now, but unless they are truly blocking someone, I won't be devastated if they aren't moved, as they may actually have more value at the trade dealine.

I don't blame him for holding out for a few weeks....This was being discussed at the winter meetings...By Xmas/first of the year, it is time to get moving IMO.

[amateurfan]

Of coruse you aren't...When in doubt, vaTech gives the Orioles the benefit of the doubt.

I have said repeatedly that if AM is able to make other moves, then waiting didn't matter...At this point, it looks very unlikely that he will be able to consumate another 2-4 trades this offseason.
This isn't true.

The difficult aspect of accepting your argument is that it's based completely on conjecture and pessimism. Your argument depends on these two assumptions:
1. you know what was offered and what other teams want for themselves
2. Andy MacPhail, or PGA, is not capable of pulling off good deals.

If this gets finalized, this will be three good deals. At that point, I will consider AM a success with no reservations.

[El Gordo]

Speculation I was hearing is different than what is being reported.Belkast said the Phillies were interested.

Yeah, well my speculation is bigger than yours.:p :002_sbiggrin:

[SrMeowMeow]

I didn't read the whole thread, but you are all aware that this will jinx the trade, correct?

I should start a 'Evaluate the Bedard extension' thread, but with our luck the jinx would be smart enough to see through that ruse. Stupid jinx.

[hoosiers]

This is a good point. It's not like Bedard will just walk away at the end of 2 years and they will get nothing. They'll either get draft picks, or something better, even if he won't re-sign.

Why is it the Ms are the only team who might get draft picks out of this deal?

We are getting five guys who could yield draft picks when their service time is up!

Instead of this being a plus in the Ms column, I think a decent argument can be made that this could well be a plus for the Os.

[Hank Scorpio]

Yes...Its fine...Not jumping for joy or anything but I think it was a good and fair return....I am very happy with Jones and Tillman.

Sherrill is the wild card to me..What do we have planned for him in the long run?

I like the fact he's cheap and under control for 4 years. Lots of things we can do with that guy...

[RShack]

How can we ANYLIZE a trade that 1, is not completed, and 2, we have no true idea of who we are getting...
Seems to me that, in general, that's pretty much what the overwhelming majority of threads are about.
I don't see what's so different about this one, except that WC's opinion is swimming against the tide...

[Frobby]

Why is it the Ms are the only team who might get draft picks out of this deal?

We are getting five guys who could yield draft picks when their service time is up!

Instead of this being a plus in the Ms column, I think a decent argument can be made that this could well be a plus for the Os.

I wasn't commenting on this to figure out who "won" the trade. I was thinking about the deal from Seattle's perspective - "why trade for a guy who may not commit long-term, who can walk in two years, when he may not be enough to put you over the top?" And I think the answer is, they are hoping he is enough to put them over the top (i.e., in the playoffs), and if they turn out to be wrong, they have the option of trading him later and getting back significant value - maybe not as much as they gave up, but enough to justify having taken the chance that Bedard could get them where they wanted to go.

[RShack]

Who cares what BRob brings you in relation to Bedard? Get the talent and sort it out later.
In part because it appears that AM has targeted CF as a problem to solve this winter.
Thus, whether he gets Jones influences how much he cares about Pie.
Surely you can understand the concept.

[TinCup]

except that WC's opinion is swimming against the tide...

Makes you go "Hmmmmm, wonder why?"

[RShack]

Makes you go "Hmmmmm, wonder why?"
Makes me go, "Hmmmm, wonder if he's got his own opinion?"
It also makes me go, "Hmmmm, wonder why it bothers people if somebody has an opinion that goes against the tide?"

[Fan4Life]

Makes me go, "Hmmmm, wonder if he's got his own opinion?"
It also makes me go, "Hmmmm, wonder why it bothers people if somebody has an opinion that goes against the tide?"

Assimilation is required? :002_sbiggrin:

[vatech1994]

There is no doubt that Hughes was on the table and then taken off.

Gammons said the other day that hughes, Melky and Marquez were on the table.

Remember, the Twins said they wanted Kennedy as the third player with Hughes and MCab.

I'm not arguing that it was on the table. I'm arguing that it was taken off the table permanently. You wrote that the Twins lost out because they didn't take NYY or BOS offer earlier and they went away. There is simply no evidence to support that claim. Nobody knows if the NYY or BOS offer was rescinded and refused to be re-offered so that Twins had to settle for the Mets offer. I think they preferred the Mets offer. I don't know why they preferred it, but saying they settled for less because they waited IS A HUGE LEAP that isn't supported by any facts or opinions I've seen.

[RShack]

Assimilation is required? :002_sbiggrin:
Just tryin' to keep an open mind, that's all. I realize it's risky, but still ;-)

[Sports Guy]

I'm not arguing that it was on the table. I'm arguing that it was taken off the table permanently. You wrote that the Twins lost out because they didn't take NYY or BOS offer earlier and they went away. There is simply no evidence to support that claim. Nobody knows if the NYY or BOS offer was rescinded and refused to be re-offered so that Twins had to settle for the Mets offer. I think they preferred the Mets offer. I don't know why they preferred it, but saying they settled for less because they waited IS A HUGE LEAP that isn't supported by any facts or opinions I've seen.

Its not a huge leap..You obviously didn;t pay attention to the talks...There is absolutely no question that the Yanks ended up pulling Hughes off the table.

Gammons said it the other day...It has been reported nationally.

Now, it has been said that they pulled the offer off the table a few times and I would think, as of a few weeks, that the Twins still could have had Hughes.

But Cashman finally got his way and they decided it wasn't worth it.

It came down to the Mets being the only team that had an offer for him worth anything at the end.

[vatech1994]

Who cares what BRob brings you in relation to Bedard? Get the talent and sort it out later.

I would care. It isn't as crazy as you assume. The whole Adam Jones/Felix Pie is a big issue. We've got Scott and Markakis so targeting Pie doesn't make a whole lot of sense if you can get Jones. Pie would be the whole take (basically) for Roberts. If we got him for BRob 1-1, now what do you do to make the Mariners deal work? Clement doesn't fit well enough to be the headliner. Triunfel is too far away to the headliner. Same with Tillman. Balentein isn't good enough. A deal with the Mariners would be harder to do if we already traded BRob for Pie + a small piece.

There are 40 man roster issues to take into account. What if the Mariners haul gave you 5 or 6 guys? Now, I'm much more likely to take a single guy like Pie from the Cubs because, while I've got deadwood on the current 40 man, I don't have enough deadwood to bring 3 or 4 more guys back for Roberts.

The Mora, et al trades don't likely fill a hole big enough for this to matter and they could easily be done for guys not required on the 40 man (or at most 1 guy on the 40 man). It is apples and oranges.

[vatech1994]

I just can't fathom that Seattle would have said no to adding Butler 4-6 weeks ago. AM was clearly holding out for better players and was told no.

I can fathom it. I can also remember there is now a 5th guy in the deal.

[Sports Guy]

The whole Adam Jones/Felix Pie is a big issue. We've got Scott and Markakis so targeting Pie doesn't make a whole lot of sense if you can get Jones. Yea, it would be awful to add 2 top 30 talents(if they were still considered prospects) and have enough quality depth to use someone in a deal to get something you need...Yea, that's a terrible thing for a bottom of the barrel team in terms of positional talent. :rolleyes:


There are 40 man roster issues to take into account. What if the Mariners haul gave you 5 or 6 guys? Now, I'm much more likely to take a single guy like Pie from the Cubs because, while I've got deadwood on the current 40 man, I don't have enough deadwood to bring 3 or 4 more guys back for Roberts.Well, not every player has to go on the 40 man and we have at least 10 guys we could drop from the 40 man roster and it not mean a thing.

[Sports Guy]

I can fathom it. I can also remember there is now a 5th guy in the deal.

Mora being dealt to the Phillies or them adding Mickilio to the deal.....

Which scenario do you prefer???

[vatech1994]

Its not a huge leap..You obviously didn;t pay attention to the talks...There is absolutely no question that the Yanks ended up pulling Hughes off the table.

Gammons said it the other day...It has been reported nationally.

Now, it has been said that they pulled the offer off the table a few times and I would think, as of a few weeks, that the Twins still could have had Hughes.

But Cashman finally got his way and they decided it wasn't worth it.

It came down to the Mets being the only team that had an offer for him worth anything at the end.

You're simply assuming things that aren't nearly clear. You're assuming the Twins are so stupid that they didn't realize they had lost their chance and ended up having to settle. You really love to assume everyone else is an idiot.

I can't find a possible reason why the Yanks and Sox wouldn't have resurrected their last offer on the table if the Twins came back to them. Can you offer a possible reason? Neither team has signed another pitcher. Neither team is pegged on payroll. Nothing.....

[Fan4Life]

Mora being dealt to the Phillies or them adding Mickilio to the deal.....

Which scenario do you prefer???

You should be writing stories for the national news media as you convey information as fact that has not been introduced into evidence. Do we have any lawyers on this board? :cool:

[Sports Guy]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/johan_santana/index.html

[vatech1994]

Mora being dealt to the Phillies or them adding Mickilio to the deal.....

Which scenario do you prefer???

Again, you're arguing apples and oranges. A has nothing to do with B.

And please stop quoting me "behind the scenes" insider stuff. I could write a book on all the things that have been reported and turned out not to be so this offseason. Some of it directly contradicts the rest of it. Peace says he nixed it. Belkast said he didn't etc, etc, etc.... It should be clear by now that none of the insiders stuff is necessarily true. It is best possible opinion at the time. Nothing more, nothing less...

[Sports Guy]

You should be writing stories for the national news media as you convey information as fact that has not been introduced into evidence. Do we have any lawyers on this board? :cool:

Looks like someone is still upset that their bball team got their butts whooped last night. ;)

Simple scenario....I say we could have gotten the 4 last month and that by doing that, it allowed us to make other moves.

So, let's say that is true...Would you rather have dumped Mora to the Phillies or kept him and gotten Mickilio in the Bedard deal???

[Sports Guy]

Again, you're arguing apples and oranges. A has nothing to do with B.

And please stop quoting me "behind the scenes" insider stuff. I could write a book on all the things that have been reported and turned out not to be so this offseason. Some of it directly contradicts the rest of it. Peace says he nixed it. Belkast said he didn't etc, etc, etc.... It should be clear by now that none of the insiders stuff is necessarily true. It is best possible opinion at the time. Nothing more, nothing less...
Oh ok...I guess i should just formulate my opinion based on what you think, right?
:rolleyes:

[Sports Guy]

You're simply assuming things that aren't nearly clear. You're assuming the Twins are so stupid that they didn't realize they had lost their chance and ended up having to settle. You really love to assume everyone else is an idiot.

I can't find a possible reason why the Yanks and Sox wouldn't have resurrected their last offer on the table if the Twins came back to them. Can you offer a possible reason? Neither team has signed another pitcher. Neither team is pegged on payroll. Nothing.....

Too much young talent, too much money to sign Santana....Both teams were correct in passing IMO.

[Fan4Life]

Looks like someone is still upset that their bball team got their butts whooped last night. ;)

OUCH! I'll be sure to reserve my pithy comments to days following a victory... if I can wait that long... :002_ssleepy:

[vatech1994]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/johan_santana/index.html

This quote from the link you provided says it all.

Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record chronicles Bill Smith's last-ditch attempts to get the Yankees and Red Sox involved. He apparently asked the Yankees for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and a top prospect and was denied. The Red Sox wouldn't part with Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury. To me this makes the Yankees and Red Sox look really fickle. They were willing to offer up these huge packages a few months ago but now both have done a 180? I know the free agent market has shrunk but it's still crazy that their stances changed so dramatically.

I can't think of a single good reason why their offers would have come off the table other than collusion. Neither of them could know the other wouldn't step up. I simply don't believe this rumor. It doesn't make good logical sense. They either weren't really willing to part with them earlier or they were willing now but the Twins didn't want the original offer or they are nuts. It is that simple. Nothing has changed that would make their need or desire any less.

[vatech1994]

Oh ok...I guess i should just formulate my opinion based on what you think, right?
:rolleyes:

I don't have an opinion other than "why don't we wait and see" for the 100 millionth time.

Of course you should have your own opinion and you can base it off whatever you want to base it off, but you shouldn't offer it up as fact and indisputable and ...... If you do, I'll argue the logic of the opposite side until I can't type anymore because it just isn't nearly as clear as you're making it seem to be.

[Fan4Life]

This quote from the link you provided says it all.

Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record chronicles Bill Smith's last-ditch attempts to get the Yankees and Red Sox involved. He apparently asked the Yankees for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and a top prospect and was denied. The Red Sox wouldn't part with Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury. To me this makes the Yankees and Red Sox look really fickle. They were willing to offer up these huge packages a few months ago but now both have done a 180? I know the free agent market has shrunk but it's still crazy that their stances changed so dramatically.

I can't think of a single good reason why their offers would have come off the table other than collusion. Neither of them could know the other wouldn't step up. I simply don't believe this rumor. It doesn't make good logical sense. They either weren't really willing to part with them earlier or they were willing now but the Twins didn't want the original offer or they are nuts. It is that simple. Nothing has changed that would make their need or desire any less.


And you know the media... a source tells them "yes, I understand the Yankees are talking about a possible deal that might include player X, Y Z"

When it gets printed, it comes out "Yankees offering player X, Y, Z..."

[vatech1994]

Too much young talent, too much money to sign Santana....Both teams were correct in passing IMO.

So they suddenly came to this realization AFTER proposing the offer a month ago? They would have to be the most incompetent fools in the world for this to be true. You do your due diligence and make up your mind PRIOR to making an offer, not after thinking about it for 30 days.

[Insomniac]

This quote from the link you provided says it all.

Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record chronicles Bill Smith's last-ditch attempts to get the Yankees and Red Sox involved. He apparently asked the Yankees for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and a top prospect and was denied. The Red Sox wouldn't part with Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury. To me this makes the Yankees and Red Sox look really fickle. They were willing to offer up these huge packages a few months ago but now both have done a 180? I know the free agent market has shrunk but it's still crazy that their stances changed so dramatically.

I can't think of a single good reason why their offers would have come off the table other than collusion. Neither of them could know the other wouldn't step up. I simply don't believe this rumor. It doesn't make good logical sense. They either weren't really willing to part with them earlier or they were willing now but the Twins didn't want the original offer or they are nuts. It is that simple. Nothing has changed that would make their need or desire any less.

I wouldn't be so quick to discount "collusion" as the reason. I don't think it is very hard to believe that neither believed that Santana was a necessary piece of the puzzle (at least not to the tune of $140 million). It's just that neither team wanted the other to get him. I have no problem believing that NY and Boston came to an explicit (or at least implicit) agreement that neither would sign Santana, knowing that at the Twins next best option was to send Santana to the NL. Both AL East teams now have the best of both worlds. Their AL East rival doesn't have him, and they don't have to risk facing him all year (or in the AL playoffs).

[Sports Guy]

So they suddenly came to this realization AFTER proposing the offer a month ago? They would have to be the most incompetent fools in the world for this to be true. You do your due diligence and make up your mind PRIOR to making an offer, not after thinking about it for 30 days.

Cashman was never in favor of this.

The longer the Twins drug it out, the more time Cashman had to convince the Yankees that it was a bad idea.

[OriolesOreos]

You know what? The best trade is one that both sides walk away thinking that they won. Different teams have different timelines and it is possible for both to win

[Sports Guy]

According to Olney:


The Twins tried to re-engage the Yankees Monday night, calling and asking, again, for Hughes to be in a package. The Yankees said no, and the Twins then asked, instead, for Chien-Ming Wang and Ian Kennedy, and the Yankees said no

[hoosiers]

Collusion is a reach, IMO. Neither the NYY or BoSox wanted Santana. They each just wanted to keep the other from getting him. I think that's been pretty obvious for a month.

All the better for us, IMO, that Santana will pitch outside the ALEast.

[JohnnyK27]

Hard to believe we have 12 pages on a thread called "Evaluate the Bedard trade" and the deal hasn't happened. If it were confirmed today, its no lock that the 5 players coming to us would all be the same. I would be/will be excited to discuss this once it happens.

[ChaosLex]

The Yankees weren't willing to give up Wang and Kennedy for Santana!?

Wow... just wow.

[wildcard]

Doesn't that kind of defeat the whole purpose of trading for him in the first place? If the Mariners are thinking of trading Bedard anytime before the end of the 2009 season, it means the trade didn't work out too well for them. Bedard's value also gets lower the closer he gets to FA. See Santana, Johann.

Sorry, I was gone all day and am just getting to respond.

The Mariners can:

1) Sign Bedard to an extension any time in the next two years.
2) Try to sign Bedard for a year, decide they can't and still get a pretty nice return. It might not be quite as good as Boston and NYY offered for Santana but it should not be far off.
3) Get two years of performance from Bedard, and have him go FA and get a 1st round draft choice.

Bottom line: To use only two years of Bedard in a trade comparison is not accurate IMO.

If the Mariners do trade Bedard after a year, their acquisition of him is not a failure because they probably got a very good year from Bedard and the trade return. That does not sound like failure to me.

On the O's side of the deal it is really quite risky to assume what Tillman and Bulter will become. They are about equal to Erbe and Beato. All four could be Jim Palmers or they could be Matt Rileys or they could be anything in between. They are just too far from the majors to know what they will end up being.

[JCK]

On the O's side of the deal it is really quite risky to assume what Tillman and Bulter will become. They are about equal to Erbe and Beato. All four could be Jim Palmers or they could be Matt Rileys or they could be anything in between. They are just too far from the majors to know what they will end up being.
Tillman is a superior prospect to anything the Orioles already had. Better than Spoone, and certainly better than Erbe. Butler is about the prospect that Erbe is.

[clapdiddy]

Hard to believe we have 12 pages on a thread called "Evaluate the Bedard trade" and the deal hasn't happened. If it were confirmed today, its no lock that the 5 players coming to us would all be the same. I would be/will be excited to discuss this once it happens.
I agree. Its absolutely insane that this deal hasn't been announced yet.

If it doesn't happen tonight, I don't see it happening until Tuesday at the earliest. We wouldn't want to interrupt all the post-Super Bowl hoopla. :rolleyes:

[wildcard]

Santana yielded a poor bounty with one year to FA and Bos & NY didn't beat the Mets offer despite needing Santana, why is Bedard going to yield more? Especially since Bedard would never sign an extension in Bos & NY. Come on WC, you are really reaching now.

I think the one thing that the last week has shown is that we do not know what Bedard might do. He might sign an extension or he might not. Many people said that Mussina would never go to NY but he did for a ton of money. I think to say that we know that Bedard would not go to Boston or NY is not a reasonable thing to assume.

[wildcard]

Tillman is a superior prospect to anything the Orioles already had. Better than Spoone, and certainly better than Erbe. Butler is about the prospect that Erbe is.

Hope you don't mind if I wait a while before I believe that. I don't think we know who will be better out of these four. I don't think we know who will stay healthy. I don't think we know who will get AAA hitters out much less major league hitter.

Penn tore up AAA hitters in 2006. Now we are not sure what he will do.

[vatech1994]

Tillman is a superior prospect to anything the Orioles already had. Better than Spoone, and certainly better than Erbe. Butler is about the prospect that Erbe is.

I'd give up. If he can type stuff like this knowing what I know he knows, he isn't talking reality here. He wants to make the trade look bad because he doesn't want Bedard traded. He isn't impartial at all.

[vatech1994]

I think the one thing that the last week has shown is that we do not know what Bedard might do. He might sign an extension or he might not. Many people said that Mussina would never go to NY but he did for a ton of money. I think to say that we know that Bedard would not go to Boston or NY is not a reasonable thing to assume.

You have an interesting memory. Mussina clearly said prior to FA that he wanted to stay as close to Montoursville, PA as he could so the Yanks, Mets, Phillies, and Pirates were at the top of his list. Acting as if the Yanks were at the bottom of his list is simply making things up.

Bedard is a totally different case. He clearly despises high media areas. Mussina had no such issues. You want 5 to 1 odds that Bedard doesn't end up in Boston or New York? I'll put up 500, you put up 100?

And, if you bought a word of the "I'm not against staying in Balt" stuff in the article, you're pretty gullible IMHO.

[wildcard]

I'd give up. If he can type stuff like this knowing what I know he knows, he isn't talking reality here. He wants to make the trade look bad because he doesn't want Bedard traded. He isn't impartial at all.

Using that logic, you wanted the trade so you want it to look good. That is not impartial.

[wildcard]

You have an interesting memory. Mussina clearly said prior to FA that he wanted to stay as close to Montoursville, PA as he could so the Yanks, Mets, Phillies, and Pirates were at the top of his list. Acting as if the Yanks were at the bottom of his list is simply making things up.

Bedard is a totally different case. He clearly despises high media areas. Mussina had no such issues. You want 5 to 1 odds that Bedard doesn't end up in Boston or New York? I'll put up 500, you put up 100?

And, if you bought a word of the "I'm not against staying in Balt" stuff in the article, you're pretty gullible IMHO.

Maybe my memory is not very good, but I seem to remember that Mussina didn't particular like dealing with the media in Baltimore which made many people think he would never go to NY. But maybe my memory is wrong.

[vatech1994]

Hope you don't mind if I wait a while before I believe that. I don't think we know who will be better out of these four. I don't think we know who will stay healthy. I don't think we know who will get AAA hitters out much less major league hitter.

Penn tore up AAA hitters in 2006. Now we are not sure what he will do.

You're changing the argument because you know you can't defend your original statement that Tillman was about the same prospect as Erbe and Beato. Of course nobody knows how they will turn out, but that isn't the point. We can only deal with their value today and their values are not close.

Sickels
Tillman B+
Erbe C+
Beato B-

BP top 100
Tillman #44
Erbe not ranked
Beato not ranked

[vatech1994]

Using that logic, you wanted the trade so you want it to look good. That is not impartial.

Well, I'm not typing stuff like Erbe & Tillman are similarly rated prospects.
I'm not estimating that Tillman and Butler won't contribute until 2012 IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED. LOL
I'm not projecting Bedard's stats into 2012 and assuming he would have signed with Baltimore if he stayed or with Seattle if he is there.

I think all of my statements are pretty defendable. None of these are IMHO.

[zff4]

You do your due diligence and make up your mind PRIOR to making an offer, not after thinking about it for 30 days.
One would think. Although the assumption that teams clear-headedly make up their minds, put something on the table and stick with it seems to contrast with events in our own backyards for the last month. Although I grant you reality doesn't necessarily jive with appearances, our experience shows that few things about this month's trade dealings seem cut-and-dried enough to let us form a cohehent description about it, let alone any form any assumptions tht we can confidently reach. In the end, it's likely the same for other teams.

[vatech1994]

One would think. Although the assumption that teams clear-headedly make up their minds, put something on the table and stick with it seems to contrast with events in our own backyards for the last month. Although I grant you reality doesn't necessarily jive with appearances, our experience shows that few things about this month's trade dealings seem cut-and-dried enough to let us form a cohehent description about it, let alone any form any assumptions tht we can confidently reach. In the end, it's likely the same for other teams.

I understand what you're trying to communicate, but I don't think there is any evidence that the Orioles have made offers and then rescinded them because they changed their minds on players. IMO, It is crazy to put an official offer on the table and then think better of it a month later unless some circumstance changes like you sign someone else, the FO make up changes, etc....

[JohnnyK27]

Well, I'm not typing stuff like Erbe & Tillman are similarly rated prospects.
I'm not estimating that Tillman and Butler won't contribute until 2012 IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED. LOL
I'm not projecting Bedard's stats into 2012 and assuming he would have signed with Baltimore if he stayed or with Seattle if he is there.

I think all of my statements are pretty defendable. None of these are IMHO.

Does the words "Ceasefire" mean anything here.

I see two guys ...One who wants the trade, the other doesn't ... Kinda reminds me of the devaluing I've heard from the visiting fans here & on SD that would build their arguments "tilted".

I want the trade & rebuilding ...Dealing Bedard & Roberts means no more of the LIP Service.

[wildcard]

You have an interesting memory. Mussina clearly said prior to FA that he wanted to stay as close to Montoursville, PA as he could so the Yanks, Mets, Phillies, and Pirates were at the top of his list. Acting as if the Yanks were at the bottom of his list is simply making things up.

Bedard is a totally different case. He clearly despises high media areas. Mussina had no such issues. You want 5 to 1 odds that Bedard doesn't end up in Boston or New York? I'll put up 500, you put up 100?

And, if you bought a word of the "I'm not against staying in Balt" stuff in the article, you're pretty gullible IMHO.

Didn't think my memory was that bad.

"Mussina is a funny guy, after a fashion. It's just that his sense of humor is deadpan and sarcastic and sometimes hard to read. That, coupled with his adamantine self-confidence, has caused more than a few people to accuse him of being a jerk; one local sportscaster casually refers to Mussina as "that arrogant s.o.b." Other reporters have been turned off by his cool, sometimes clinical post-game demeanor.

But his teammates say they've got it all wrong.

"No, he's not flamboyant, he's not a character, he doesn't enjoy talking about himself to the media or anybody else," says friend and teammate Scott Kamieniecki. "Look, he doesn't talk to us that much." "

http://www.angelfire.com/sports/mikemussina/articlebalmag.html

Some of Mussina's traits remind me of Bedard.

[JTrea81]

Didn't think my memory was that bad.

"Mussina is a funny guy, after a fashion. It's just that his sense of humor is deadpan and sarcastic and sometimes hard to read. That, coupled with his adamantine self-confidence, has caused more than a few people to accuse him of being a jerk; one local sportscaster casually refers to Mussina as "that arrogant s.o.b." Other reporters have been turned off by his cool, sometimes clinical post-game demeanor.

But his teammates say they've got it all wrong.

"No, he's not flamboyant, he's not a character, he doesn't enjoy talking about himself to the media or anybody else," says friend and teammate Scott Kamieniecki. "Look, he doesn't talk to us that much." "

http://www.angelfire.com/sports/mikemussina/articlebalmag.html

Some of Mussina traits remember me of Bedard.

Mussina routinely has thrown players under the bus in New York. Bedard would never do that...

[wildcard]

Mussina routinely has thrown players under the bus in New York. Bedard would never do that...

I agree. Bedard does not have all of Mussina's traits. But neither guy liked talking the to media much. That led many to think Mussina would never chose to go to NY. vatech is making that same conclusion about Bedard. All I am saying is, one never knows.

[zff4]

I agree. Bedard does not have all of Mussina's traits. But neither guy liked talking the to media much. That led many to think Mussina would never chose to go to NY. vatech is making that same conclusion about Bedard. All I am saying is, one never knows. Bedard in pinstripes in 2 years time I could do without.

[wildcard]

Well, I'm not typing stuff like Erbe & Tillman are similarly rated prospects.
I'm not estimating that Tillman and Butler won't contribute until 2012 IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED. LOL
I'm not projecting Bedard's stats into 2012 and assuming he would have signed with Baltimore if he stayed or with Seattle if he is there.

I think all of my statements are pretty defendable. None of these are IMHO.

My main point here is that all four of these pitcher are so far away from the majors that no one knows what they will do when and if they get to there. Erbe just turned 20 and Tillman will be 20 in April. One is 6'4", the other is 6'5". They both have shown they can strike out batters in A Ball. Both did not do as well last year at A+ as some scouts would like ERA wise.

If you are very confident that you know which one will be the better pitcher throughout their career, which one will stay healthy, then I think you should stop work and make tons of money on the lottery. Because you can really pick them.

Personally, I don't think anyone can look at these 2nd and 3rd round, 19 or 20 year old picks, both with good stuff and say who will be better when they both have pretty darn look arms.

The rates on these two talented pitcher is more like what have you done for me lately.


"2008 Baseball America rated #3 for the Marines
Chris Tillman, rhp Born: April 15, 1988. • B-T: R-R. • Ht: 6-5. • Wt: 195.
Drafted: HS—Fountain Valley, Calif., 2006 (2nd round).

Strengths: The lanky Tillman is growing into his 6-foot-5 frame, and the leverage in his clean delivery gives extra life to an above-average 91-94 mph four-seam fastball. Tillman throws a true 11-to-5 curveball with tight rotation and late break that functions as his strikeout pitch. He has a loose arm and could grow into more strength and velocity. He shows aptitude for a changeup, but it's still his third pitch.

2007 Baseball America rated #2 for the O's ahead of Liz.
2. Brandon Erbe, rhp Born: December 25, 1987 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-4 • Wt: 180
Drafted: HS--Baltimore, 2005 (3rd round) •
Strengths: Erbe works anywhere from 92-97 mph with his fastball, sitting around 94-95, and he can locate it on both sides of the plate. His slider is also a potential plus pitch when he commands it. Orioles officials have also been impressed by his demeanor and mound presence, which is advanced for his age and has been compared to that of Jim Palmer."

2007 BA 100 Prospects

Erbe #78
Morrow #87
Beato #99
Tillman Not rated
Butler Not rated

Some scouts seem to be higher on Tillman than Erbe right now because Erbe control was not up to par last year. However, betting on who will do better this year is a toss up.

[ON BASE %]

Jones for Bedard is a money trade. Read my sig. The fact that we get two prospects that are #2 type upsides is unreal as well. Tillman rates out higher than any of our minor league pitchers right now. Butler is a close second.

Sherrill should be our closer and I think he will inflate his value so we can get a great piece for him at the deadline if we feel the need to. People overpay for great BP pitching if they are in the hunt. And to be honest, even if Sherrill is a bust, it doesn't matter. We have a lot of young guys contending for BP slots. If he does have a good year and you add him to Walker and Bradford, we have some solid arms in the pen to help the young guys develop by putting them in non high pressure situations until they get their feet wet.

As for Bedard for Jones straight up.

http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/

Enjoy.

Interesting read. Thanks!

[mama]

mariner fan here..
you guys are lucky to get jones!! he won't disappoint.

http://detectovision.com/?p=1284#more-1284

[vatech1994]

I agree. Bedard does not have all of Mussina's traits. But neither guy liked talking the to media much. That led many to think Mussina would never chose to go to NY. vatech is making that same conclusion about Bedard. All I am saying is, one never knows.

You are completely considering the wrong information. There was stuff all over the papers back then about him wanting to stay close to Montoursville, PA. He was only going to consider places he could drive home to in a couple hours so it was limited to Balt (which wasn't happening), Philly, and NY. This isn't that difficult. Bedard is from Canada. There is a huge freaking difference between Mussina and Bedard. I seriously can't believe you're spouting this stuff as evidence. The fact that Mussina is a jerk has zero to do with him not liking the media. He gives media interviews with no issue. He is just arrogant. I'll find the PA stuff if you want, but jeez, this is stuff even a casual fan knew. For God's sake, five years later and I still remember he is from Montoursville, PA. I wonder why.....

[vatech1994]

My main point here is that all four of these pitcher are so far away from the majors that no one knows what they will do when and if they get to there. Erbe just turned 20 and Tillman will be 20 in April. One is 6'4", the other is 6'5". They both have shown they can strike out batters in A Ball. Both did not do as well last year at A+ as some scouts would like ERA wise.

If you are very confident that you know which one will be the better pitcher throughout their career, which one will stay healthy, then I think you should stop work and make tons of money on the lottery. Because you can really pick them.

Personally, I don't think anyone can look at these 2nd and 3rd round, 19 or 20 year old picks, both with good stuff and say who will be better when they both have pretty darn look arms.

2007 BA 100 Prospects

Erbe #78
Morrow #87
Beato #99
Tillman Not rated
Butler Not rated

Some scouts seem to be higher on Tillman than Erbe right now because Erbe control was not up to par last year. However, betting on who will do better this year is a toss up.

For God's sake, your information is over a year old. When BA comes out with there new stuff, this won't be true. Do you honestly believe the stuff you're typing right now? It is which one has more value today because that is what we're dealing in, life today. There is no way that Erbe could be the second player in a trade for Bedard today. No way. Show me one current publication that ranks them as the same level and I'll go away. The point isn't which one will make it.

[zff4]

Evaluating the "Bedard trade" (I think we should put it in qualifying quotes) will really be an interesting exercise at the trade deadline. The trade in itself is meaningful right now, as was the Miggy trade, but we'll be able to put the whole magillah in context when we hopefully see the cascading effect of other trades done before and at the deadline and get a solid idea of where MacPhail intends to take us.

[mikezpen]

What Bedard trade???

[wildcard]

For God's sake, your information is over a year old. When BA comes out with there new stuff, this won't be true. Do you honestly believe the stuff you're typing right now? It is which one has more value today because that is what we're dealing in, life today. There is no way that Erbe could be the second player in a trade for Bedard today. No way. Show me one current publication that ranks them as the same level and I'll go away. The point isn't which one will make it.

I think you just made my point. There is no way that Tillman should be the second player in the Bedard trade. But that is the rumor. After rumors of Kemp and Kershaw (which were probably never true); Bailey, Votto, and/or Cueto; Jones and Morrow; Jones and Clement; all who are more developed players, now the rumor is Jones and Tillman. The risk for the O's is much, much higher and but that appears to be the corner that MacPhail has painted himself into.

At this point, I fully agree that Tillman will rate higher. Not because he has more talent then Erbe, but because Erbe experienced more control problems moving to A+ ball than Tillman. Both players have a long way to go to be productive players in the majors. There will likely be bumps for both along the way.

[wildcard]

You are completely considering the wrong information. There was stuff all over the papers back then about him wanting to stay close to Montoursville, PA. He was only going to consider places he could drive home to in a couple hours so it was limited to Balt (which wasn't happening), Philly, and NY. This isn't that difficult. Bedard is from Canada. There is a huge freaking difference between Mussina and Bedard. I seriously can't believe you're spouting this stuff as evidence. The fact that Mussina is a jerk has zero to do with him not liking the media. He gives media interviews with no issue. He is just arrogant. I'll find the PA stuff if you want, but jeez, this is stuff even a casual fan knew. For God's sake, five years later and I still remember he is from Montoursville, PA. I wonder why.....

Did you miss this? "he doesn't enjoy talking about himself to the media or anybody else,"

Mussina did not like being interview in Baltimore, unless he wanted to say something. He brushed off reporters often. Reacted to questions as stupid (which some no doubt were). Gave one word answers when trying to be interviewed. Whether it was arrogance or just a preference to be left alone is really not important for what is are talking about.

I completely agree that Mussina wanted to stay close to Pennsylvania. But is was a surprise to many that he would jump into the New York limelight. It was counter to him personality considering the New York press demands that he knew he would have to deal with. But he did it.

You say Bedard would never consider signing with NY. I say looking at what Mussina did for money and the hopes of a World Series ring, anything is possible.

[Roy Firestone]

Well, you know what's funny? The Mets gave up less to get Johann Santana and they have the oppurtunity to negotiate a new deal with him before the trade becomes official. The O's are getting a better deal with no negotiating window for the Mariners. So good luck Mariners in two years.

Not only is it a crap shoot to think you will sign a player you"control" for only two years..you hope he doesnt do "so well" that it will cost you what it will cost the Mets for Santana...It could be 20 miilion a year for Bedard in 2 seasons, and then he will be in his middle 30's...with a history of injury problems..Not only that, your team will be much older, and have lost some promising prospects. I LOVE Erik Bedard and truly wish him well..but we did the right thing..but more importantly..we did the only thing we could do!!!! THE MAN DIDNT WANT TO BE HERE!!

[raypetty]

People are evaluating a trade that hasn't even happened.:confused:

[wildcard]

People are evaluating a trade that hasn't even happened.:confused:

First sentence of the inital post - OK, it appears like it will be done soon.

What do you expect us to talk about while we wait. This could be one of the largest trades in O's history. So you think we should just ignore it until it happens or is called off. That doesn't sound like a message board approach.

[turtlebowl]

I'm wondering also about evaluating a trade that has not been announced. First I don't want ti jinx this thing. Secondly, As much bad info we have heard regarding this trade, would it surprise anyone if their may be a name in involved that we don't expect.

[vatech1994]

I think you just made my point.

Well, I seriously think you're deluded. WC, no offense, but this is pointless so I'm going to go away. I wish you luck.

[geschinger]

I think you just made my point. There is no way that Tillman should be the second player in the Bedard trade. But that is the rumor. After rumors of Kemp and Kershaw (which were probably never true); Bailey, Votto, and/or Cueto; Jones and Morrow; Jones and Clement; all who are more developed players, now the rumor is Jones and Tillman. The risk for the O's is much, much higher and but that appears to be the corner that MacPhail has painted himself into.


In the risk reward equation I don't believe there is a lot of difference getting five guys instead of Jones/Morrow/Sherrill or Jones/Clement/Sherrill. Sometimes it's those higher ceiling less developed players that end up making the trade. If deal ends up being the 5 for 1 as mentioned it's a nice risk/reward balance IMO and could be even better if the O's use Sherrill as the closer and then spin him off for another high ceiling prospect or two.