Top 2008 Draft Prospects: Pedro Alvarez

[Greg Pappas]

Let's get right to it.

The debate has raged for years, as concerns the selection of amateur baseball players in the annual draft. College guys or High School youngsters? Pitchers or Hitters?

In the weeks and months leading up to this 2008 Draft, I'll be sharing more on the statistical overview of which are traditionally the better selections in the first round.

For now, let's take a look at the young men that Major League Teams are going to be keeping an awfully close eye on as the amateur season dawns.

Key: (X) is their age at the time of the 2008 Draft

1. Pedro Alvarez {College 3B} (21). The third-baseman, from the same college (Vanderbilt) as last year's overall #1 pick David Price, is the consensus #1 rated player after stellar Freshman and Sophomore campaigns. Alvarez is well put together at 6' 2 225 lbs., bats left, throws right and plays a decent third base. However, it's his bat that most feel have him at the head of the class.

Alvarez has comparables to Alex Gordon, with a .300+ BA and middle of the lineup production (25+ HR, 100+ RBI) very possible. He is the kind of player that if he develops as projected, could be a franchise player, whether at 3B or with a potential switch to 1B. He runs fairly well, although it's unlikely he'll be much of a stolen base threat.
Alvarez is an on-field leader, playing outstanding in stints for Team USA, and should become an easy top-5 choice this Draft, barring an unforeseen setback.

Greg's Grade (1-100) = 90

Next up> College LHSP Brian Matusz.

[furryburres]

Let's get right to it.

The debate has raged for years, as concerns the selection of amateur baseball players in the annual draft. College guys or High School youngsters? Pitchers or Hitters?

In the weeks and months leading up to this 2008 Draft, I'll be sharing more on the statistical overview of which are traditionally the better selections in the first round.

For now, let's take a look at the young men that Major League Teams are going to be keeping an awfully close eye on as the amateur season dawns.

Key: Name (X) = X is their age at the time of the 2008 Draft

1. Pedro Alvarez (21). The third-baseman, from the same college (Vanderbilt) as last year's overall #1 pick David Price, is the consensus #1 rated player after stellar Freshman and Sophomore campaigns. Alvarez is well put together at 6' 2 225 lbs., bats left, throws right and plays a decent third base. However, it's his bat that most feel have him at the head of the class.

Alvarez has comparables to Alex Gordon, with a .300+ BA and middle of the lineup production (25+ HR, 100+ RBI) very possible. He is the kind of player that if he develops as projected, could be a franchise player, whether at 3B or with a potential switch to 1B. He runs fairly well, although it's unlikely he'll be much of a stolen base threat.
Alvarez is an on-field leader, playing outstanding in stints for Team USA, and should become an easy top-5 choice this Draft, barring an unforeseen setback.

Greg's Grade (1-100) = 90

Next up> High School SS Tim Beckham.

I feel that he's very complete, and has the least risk. Unfortunately, those guys always end up failing.

[TJ Wrangler]

Good stuff, Greg. I look forward to seeing more of this.

[Greg Pappas]

I feel that he's very complete, and has the least risk. Unfortunately, those guys always end up failing.

The best amateur guys always end up failing? I'm not with you there. While I agree that sometimes the top amateurs are busts, its still the smart call to go with the best talent.

[Greg Pappas]

Good stuff, Greg. I look forward to seeing more of this.

Thanks. I look forward to the many hours of researching and grading these guys... errr maybe not so much the hours part of it. :D

[TJ Wrangler]

Thanks. I look forward to the many hours of researching and grading these guys... errr maybe not so much the hours part of it. :D

Ehh...nobody really looks forward to hours. I would offer to help you if you need it, but then the issue of conflicting opinions might arise. Besides, I may or may not have the time or credentials to write up reports. College life takes a lot out of you. Let me know if you'd like help though.

[Greg Pappas]

Ehh...nobody really looks forward to hours. I would offer to help you if you need it, but then the issue of conflicting opinions might arise. Besides, I may or may not have the time or credentials to write up reports. College life takes a lot out of you. Let me know if you'd like help though.

Thanks for the offer.

What I'm trying to do is put the focus on the consensus scouting reports from some of the best online baseball scouting sites, and interjecting my take and grade as well.

[TJ Wrangler]

No problem. This seems like a great idea. I'm sure a lot of people would appreciate your work.

[Greg Pappas]

No problem. This seems like a great idea. I'm sure a lot of people would appreciate your work.

Thanks again. There will be a few others that I'll lean on to help provide coverage of the draft, so it'll be a team effort, I assure you. :)

[Fairfax Bird]

Ehh...nobody really looks forward to hours. I would offer to help you if you need it, but then the issue of conflicting opinions might arise. Besides, I may or may not have the time or credentials to write up reports. College life takes a lot out of you. Let me know if you'd like help though.

I hate to break it to you, but that is about the easiest time you will have until you retire. Wait until you start chasing kids around everyday after work.

Greg, keep up the great work you do here.

[TakebackOPACY]

Here's Alvarez' NCAA player page (http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/careerplayer).

And to put it in context, here's the 2007 SEC individual statistics (http://www.secsports.com/new/sports/bbc/07stats/lgplyrs.htm#leagp.ldr).

EDIT: Oh, and great job Greg. Rep to you!

And don't get me started on Matt Laporta, who lead the SEC in several categories. The 'experts' had him 20th or lower and the Brewers shocked them by picking him 7th overall. He's gonna pull a 'Ron Kittle' for them next year.

[Greg Pappas]

I hate to break it to you, but that is about the easiest time you will have until you retire. Wait until you start chasing kids around everyday after work.

Greg, keep up the great work you do here.

Appreciated sir.

[Greg Pappas]

Here's Alvarez' NCAA player page (http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/careerplayer).

And to put it in context, here's the 2007 SEC individual statistics (http://www.secsports.com/new/sports/bbc/07stats/lgplyrs.htm#leagp.ldr).

EDIT: Oh, and great job Greg. Rep to you!

And don't get me started on Matt Laporta, who lead the SEC in several categories. The 'experts' had him 20th or lower and the Brewers shocked them by picking him 7th overall. He's gonna pull a 'Ron Kittle' for them next year.

Thanks a lot.

[Tony-OH]

Maybe you should give each player his own thread so it doesn't get lost?

[TJ Wrangler]

I hate to break it to you, but that is about the easiest time you will have until you retire. Wait until you start chasing kids around everyday after work.

Greg, keep up the great work you do here.

ha..I'm well aware. I'm just taking a heavy course load so I can meet my degree requirements. I need to complete my poly sci major, all my gen-ed's, and have a total of 96 credits by the end of my junior year. After that, the second part of my degree will kick in, and I'll be admitted to law school a year early. That mixed with a 30 min commute to and from school, working , and a girlfriend sometimes leaves me short on time.

I agree though, at this point it time, school sounds a lot better than chasing kids around after work. I have nothing but respect for people who manage to do that and remain semi-sane.

[Fairfax Bird]

ha..I'm well aware. I'm just taking a heavy course load so I can meet my degree requirements. I need to complete my poly sci major, all my gen-ed's, and have a total of 96 credits by the end of my junior year. After that, the second part of my degree will kick in, and I'll be admitted to law school a year early. That mixed with a 30 min commute to and from school, working , and a girlfriend sometimes leaves me short on time.

I agree though, at this point it time, school sounds a lot better than chasing kids around after work. I have nothing but respect for people who manage to do that and remain semi-sane.

Good luck with it all Justin, just giving you a hard time.;)

[TJ Wrangler]

Good luck with it all Justin, just giving you a hard time.;)

Thanks, I can take a joke, so no offense was taken.

[wayne25]

First, thanks for doing this: About Alvarez, at least one report I read, can't remember who, but was BA or one of the respected sites, said that he strikes out alot (swings and misses alot), and that that was really a red flag. He might be concerned with pitch recognition. Be that as it may, as of right now, I'd be happy to have him.

[McLovin]

Here's Alvarez' NCAA player page (http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/careerplayer).

And to put it in context, here's the 2007 SEC individual statistics (http://www.secsports.com/new/sports/bbc/07stats/lgplyrs.htm#leagp.ldr).

EDIT: Oh, and great job Greg. Rep to you!

And don't get me started on Matt Laporta, who lead the SEC in several categories. The 'experts' had him 20th or lower and the Brewers shocked them by picking him 7th overall. He's gonna pull a 'Ron Kittle' for them next year.
Is pulling a 'Ron Kittle' a good thing or a bad thing?

[TakebackOPACY]

Is pulling a 'Ron Kittle' a good thing or a bad thing?

Kittle was the last guy to hit 50 HR's in a minor league season. LaPorta played 23 games in 'A' ball after being drafted last summer. He hit 10 HR's and 8 doubles (.750 slg%). Between NCAA (52 games), rookie ball (7 games), and the SAL league (23 games), he hit 32 HR's and 19 doubles in 284 ab's.

[Greg Pappas]

First, thanks for doing this: About Alvarez, at least one report I read, can't remember who, but was BA or one of the respected sites, said that he strikes out alot (swings and misses alot), and that that was really a red flag. He might be concerned with pitch recognition. Be that as it may, as of right now, I'd be happy to have him.

YW. :)

Alvarez will be very good, so I wouldn't worry too much. ;)

[WebLink21]

Pedro Alvarez's first game is today at 2:00 vs. Oregon State. I will come back with his stats if someone doesn't beat me to it. :D

[WebLink21]

Alvarez is 0-1 - Reached on a throwing error
Alvarez is 0-2 - Struck out looking
Alvarez is 0-2 - Hit by a pitch
Alvarez is 0-2 - Walked
Alvarez is 0-2 - Walked

Alvarez finishes 0-2 - 2 walks, 1 HBP

Thanks alot Greg. Much better.

[Greg Pappas]

Alvarez is 0-1 - Reached on a throwing error
Alvarez is 0-2 - Struck out looking
Alvarez is still 0-2 so far today - Hit by a pitch


Greg, You should really change the title of this thread to match the others format. It is really hard to see that this thread is about Alvarez. It looks like it is just about the Top 10 2008 Draft Projects. Just a suggestion.

I sent a suggestion to a staff member not long after I realized that the thread was not Alvarez inclusive. To no avail as yet.

If a staff member could contact me, I'd like to format all the scouting previews to look the same. :)

[Battleship]

I sent a suggestion to a staff member not long after I realized that the thread was not Alvarez inclusive. To no avail as yet.

If a staff member could contact me, I'd like to format all the scouting previews to look the same. :)

Let me say I really enjoy the previews as well. Great work. Thanks a lot.

Edit: Never mind. I see they changed it.

[WebLink21]

"Just a bit of news here, Commodore star third baseman Pedro Alvarez was a late scratch in this game, due to an apparent arm injury. We're told it's just for precautionary reasons, but nontheless, that's never good news in Game Two of the seaosn for coach Corbin. In his place is Andrew Giobbi."

http://slog.cstv.com/touchingthebases/2008/02/game_of_the_weekend.html

[WebLink21]

2/24/08 - Scratched again due to arm injury

[allstar1579]

2/28/08

Broke a hamate bone in his hand, out indefinitely.

[bernie132000]

2/28/08

Broke a hamate bone in his hand, out indefinitely.

I was going to mention this. I saw that he was out for 6 weeks. He is a good player. Should still have half of April, and all of May before the draft.

[justD]

This might be posted in another thread (sorry; haven't had time to read them all the past few days) but just in case it's not, this is Jim Callis' take on Alvarez's injury and how it might (or rather, how it probably won't) affect the draft:

from Ask BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/265710.html)


The Commodores haven't released many details about Alvarez, other than to say that he'll be out at least six weeks after breaking the bone in his first at-bat of the season. Aaron Fitt says the buzz around the USD Tournament is that Alvarez may have a broken hamate bone, an injury that often leads to an extended decrease in power.

Whatever the injury, it should have zero effect on Alvarez' draft status. It won't affect his long-term production and he has shown more than enough in two years with Vanderbilt and Team USA. His situation is very similar to what happened with Mark Teixeira in his draft year in 2001. Teixeira missed almost three months at Georgia Tech after breaking his ankle in a collision with an outfielder. He still went No. 5 overall in the draft, dropping that far only because of signability, and landed a guaranteed $9.5 million major league contract from the Rangers.

Teixeira's status as college baseball's best hitter didn't diminish because he was sidelined, and neither will Alvarez'. And while some teams do wonder if Alvarez will wind up at first base rather than third base, it's a minor concern. Whichever team gives him millions of dollars to sign will be betting on his bat, assuming that he'll be a future No. 3 hitter in the big league lineup. If he's a third baseman, that's all the better.

Furthermore, while Alvarez ranked as the 2008 draft's No. 1 prospect entering the season Premium, that never meant that the Rays were a lock to take him with the first pick. They already have a stud third-base prospect in Evan Longoria, not to mention a first baseman coming off a 46-homer season in Carlos Pena.

Taking another corner infielder might not have been the best idea to begin with. Alvarez is No. 1, but he's not worlds better than the other top prospects. Even before the injury, I thought the Rays were just as likely to take Matusz, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow or Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham than to pick Alvarez.

[O's84]

Anybody know how Alvarez's bat compares to Wieter's in terms of MLB Readiness?

[Stotle]

Anybody know how Alvarez's bat compares to Wieter's in terms of MLB Readiness?

He has a slightly better bat -- many considered him the best bat last year, as well.

[O's84]

Wow, so he could move faster than Wieters is projected to?!

[DocJJ]

Many scouts projected Alvarez as the number one overall pick in last years' draft , had he declared himself eligible.

[Greg Pappas]

Many scouts projected Alvarez as the number one overall pick in last years' draft , had he declared himself eligible.

Agreed... Alvarez is a special talent and projects as a potential franchise-type player. His injury should not detract from his standing as the best player in the draft, however time will tell.