Baseball America chat

[rhall]

Jim Callis is chatting about the draft right now on BA.com.

I'll look at posting some comments he makes here. Feel free to join in.

First one... Callis mentions some guys he thinks could be sleepers.


As for guys who aren't household names but could jump into the first round, a few are UCLA lefthander Tim Murphy, Alabama high school outfielder Destin Hood and California prep lefty Bill Mooneyham. Also, keep an eye on Fresno State's Tanner Scheppers. He looked great in fall ball after taking the summer off, and if he's for real, I think he'll be the third college pitcher drafted.

[rhall]

Callis' responce when asked if high school catcher, Kyle Skipworth, would be a possible pick for KC, since they're lacking good catchers.


I think No. 3 (where the Royals pick) is a little rich for Skipworth, but he is the top catcher in the draft and I could see him moving up to the 6-10 range with a good spring.

Thats a shame because if KC were to take Skipworth, that would greatly increase the O's chances of grabbing the player they really want.

[rhall]

Nothing new here, but the best shortstop prospects who will stay at that position:


The top shortstop prospects in both high school (Tim Beckham) and college (Georgia's Gordon Beckham, no relation) both can play shortstop at the next level.

[rhall]

I agree with Callis, thinking that this won't happen, but it looks like it could just take the Pirates not following through on their word for the O's to be able to grab Alvarez.


Q: Joe from Easton, MD asks:
If the Rays decide to go pitching with the #1 pick, the Pirates refuse to go over slot and pick another ho-hum college pitcher, and the Royals go pitching is it possible that Alvarez could slip to 4 or 5? It seems ridiculous to me given his hitting ability but I could see something strange like that happening.

A:

Jim Callis: Well, I don't think the Pirates are going to refuse to go over slot. I think they would jump on Pedro Alvarez, but I'll play along. The Royals have taken Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas (who looks like a 3B to me), so they could pass on Alvarez for pitching. Alvarez could slip to No. 4--and he'll be advised by Scott Boras as well.

[rhall]

Hopefully this doesn't influence things too much, since that would mean the O's are looking at more than just talent when making picks, but here's some of the "Boras" guys.


Q: david from maryland asks:
who are the scott boras client for the 2008 mlb draft besides eric hosmer?

A: Jim Callis:
It's still early, and not everyone is locked up. Confirmed Boras advisees include Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez, Florida HS 1B Eric Hosmer (the best bat in the HS class), California RHP Gerrit Cole and Georgia RHP Joshua Fields.

[rhall]

Most directly related O's question so far, and a relief to hear:


Q: James from North East, MD asks:
In your opinion, how much influence will Andy McPhail have on Joe Jordan when it comes to who the Orioles pick? McPhail came in last year AFTER the Orioles picked Wieters but BEFORE they signed him, and we know how that almost turned out. Was that a coincidence? After the Townsend draft pick debacle in 2004, Jordan has come in and has done real well. Will McPhail disrupt that?

A: Jim Callis:
I think MacPhail mostly will leave Jordan alone, and I agree that Jordan has done a good job. Remember too that Jordan had to clear the Wieters pick with Peter Angelos, regardless. And the Cubs weren't afraid to go way over slot for guys like Mark Prior and Jeff Samardzija while MacPhail was around.

[rhall]

Bunch of stuff:


Q: Keith from Lincoln asks:
Matusz or Crow? Why?
A:
Jim Callis: Matusz, just barely. He's a lefthander, he has a deeper repertoire and he's better built for durability.


Q: Mike Marinaro from Tampa,FL asks:
Hi Jim. Thanks for taking the time for the chat today. Are there any prep pitchers that are clearly top-of-the-rotation prospects in this draft, similar to Homer Bailey in 2004, Vostad in 2005, Kershaw in 2006, and Jarrod Parker in 2007?
A:
Jim Callis: Missouri HS RHP Tim Melville is the clear No. 1, though I don't think his buzz is quite as great right now as it was for the other guys you've mentioned.

I like Melville, too, but probably not with the 4th pick (O's).


Q: ScottAZ from Phx, AZ asks:
Is Aaron Hicks going to be popped as a Pi or OF? Seems he has tools, but is very raw with the bat. Doesn't seem he it would be a surer thing on the mound with his 97mph heat and maybe the best curve in his class?
A:
Jim Callis: Scouts are torn . . . they really don't know right now. I agree, he'd be a safer bet on the mound with his pure stuff. But if you believe in his bat, you'd probably go that route.

With his athleticism and speed, you'd love to see him in CF, but he does have great stuff on the mound. Word is, he doesn't have any control though. That needs to improve to make this an argument.

Love getting more info on (esp. good info) on Tim Beckham.

Q: Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks:
B.J. Upton was a pure shortstop in the 2004 draft. Not any more. Brandon Wood was a pure shortstop in 2003, but the Angels have considered moving him third base. In 2004, we had Matt Bush. In 2005, we had Justin Upton, now an outfielder. In 2006, Adrian Cardenas was a top-drafted prep shortstop. He's now a second baseman. Why is it so difficult to make the jump to shortstop in the pros, and what makes scouts believe that Tim Beckham will be any different than these former highly-regarded prep fielders?
A:
Jim Callis: Beckham is a legit athlete with the arm, range and hands to stay at shortstop. A lot of times, a high school shortstop is the best athlete on his team if not a pro shortstop. That was the case with Cardenas. B.J. Upton had the tools to play shortstop, but throwing accuracy became a problem. Wood could play shortstop, but the Angels may have a bigger need at 3B. Bush can definitely play shortstop, but he couldn't hit at all.

[rhall]

Q: Steve from Las Vegas asks:
If you needed a first baseman, and wanted the guy with the higher ceiling, and the guy most likely to reach it, Hosmer or Smoak? andy why?
A:
Jim Callis: Smoak. It's nitpicky--that's the only way to separate top prospects--but Smoak has proven himself at a higher level and he's a switch-hitter.

There's no way Friedrich slots anywhere near the O's picks, but I like him.

Q: Louis from Dallas, TX asks:
Is Christian Friedrich the next Barry Zito or the next Rich Hill?
A:

Jim Callis: Rich Hill is the better comp. Friedrich has more fastball than Zito had.

[rhall]

Q: dave from columbia,md. asks:
Which of your consensus top4 picks do you think the Orioles would hope to have slide to them?
A:
Jim Callis: I don't think the Orioles are going to complain about getting Alvarez, Matusz, Crow or Beckham.

Seems like he slid out from under that question. Sure, we won't cry because we "have to settle" for Crow, but I would definitely rather have any of the other three.


Q: David from Colorado Springs, CO asks:
How does Beckham's signability look? Any red flags on that front?
A:

Jim Callis: Nope, no red flags right now.

Good to know, since I think he has a spoken committment to USC. Can anyone confirm that?

[hoosiers]

Tanner Scheppers sounds familiar. I believe he was out of the 2005 draft. We drafted him - the guy who threw too hard for any catcher on his HS team so he had to dial it back. I wanted that guy signed - or maybe I have the wrong guy.

[WebLink21]

I agree with Callis, thinking that this won't happen, but it looks like it could just take the Pirates not following through on their word for the O's to be able to grab Alvarez.

Wait...so it is already known that Boras will represent Alverez? I don’t understand why he thinks that the Pirates will def draft him if the DRays pass on him. I may be missing something, but when did the Pirates start to spend money on anything? I could def see them passing on Alverez if Boras is his agent. I can all 3 teams passing on him. Teams that do not like to spend always seem to pass on Boras clients. Does anyone remember J. Weaver and S. Drew from a few years ago? I don't think that we will pass on him though. I think we don't mind over spending right now. Not with the rebuilding going on. Not when we have to sell the rebuild to some fans. This is just my prediction, but I think he slides to #4 and we draft him. Then I think we sign him AGAIN on the last day we can. haha. Next year we will be arguing over who is #1 on our prospect list....Alverez or Weiters (I am also hoping Rowell has a good year and starts to be brought up in this conversation as well).

[rhall]

Wait...so it is already known that Boras will represent Alverez? I don’t understand why he thinks that the Pirates will def draft him if the DRays pass on him. I may be missing something, but when did the Pirates start to spend money on anything? I could def see them passing on Alverez if Boras is his agent. I can all 3 teams passing on him. Teams that do not like to spend always seem to pass on Boras clients. Does anyone remember J. Weaver and S. Drew from a few years ago? I don't think that we will pass on him though. I think we don't mind over spending right now. Not with the rebuilding going on. Not when we have to sell the rebuild to some fans. This is just my prediction, but I think he slides to #4 and we draft him. Then I think we sign him AGAIN on the last day we can. haha. Next year we will be arguing over who is #1 on our prospect list....Alverez or Weiters (I am also hoping Rowell has a good year and starts to be brought up in this conversation as well).

The Pirates have made some changes in their front office and along with those changes has come a change in philosophy. They have publicly stated that they need to stop passing on top talent in order to keep spending down and have acknowledged that they need to draft the best player available. If they say that and then pass on Alvarez, assuming TB doesn't pick him, they will have a media disaster, especially considering their need at 3B.

[rhall]

Tanner Scheppers sounds familiar. I believe he was out of the 2005 draft. We drafted him - the guy who threw too hard for any catcher on his HS team so he had to dial it back. I wanted that guy signed - or maybe I have the wrong guy.


I don't remember anything about him, throwing too hard for his catchers or anything, but it does look the guy the O's drafted in the 2005 draft. It was the 29th round, so it looks like they knew they wouldn't be able to sign him, but took the chance on him late in the draft.

[WebLink21]

The Pirates have made some changes in their front office and along with those changes has come a change in philosophy. They have publicly stated that they need to stop passing on top talent in order to keep spending down and have acknowledged that they need to draft the best player available. If they say that and then pass on Alvarez, assuming TB doesn't pick him, they will have a media disaster, especially considering their need at 3B.

Thanks a lot for the info. I assumed that something had to have changed. I can always remember teams like Pitts and KC passing on players that had more talent so that they would not have to pay big money. I still hope that someone else emerges for them. I think Alvarez would look real good in Orange and Black. If we don't get him, right now I am leaning towards taking Beckham. I know he is a high school kid and will take longer to develop, but from everything I have read it doesn't seem to be too many middle infielders that come along with his talent. If you had to choose between Beckham, Smoak or Hosmer with the #4, who would you go with?

[napbow]

1. Beckham
2. Smoak
3. Hosmer

I would love to get a solid prospect at SS, and if you have to decide between the 1bmen, I'd go with the more sure thing. Also, Smoak will be on the same timeline as Weiters meaning he will help us in the near future.

Of course the Miami 1b could be in the picture as well.

I can't wait for the draft. We are getting a top notch player no matter what.

[rhall]

Thanks a lot for the info. I assumed that something had to have changed. I can always remember teams like Pitts and KC passing on players that had more talent so that they would not have to pay big money. I still hope that someone else emerges for them. I think Alvarez would look real good in Orange and Black. If we don't get him, right now I am leaning towards taking Beckham. I know he is a high school kid and will take longer to develop, but from everything I have read it doesn't seem to be too many middle infielders that come along with his talent. If you had to choose between Beckham, Smoak or Hosmer with the #4, who would you go with?


If I had to choose between those 3, assuming that they'll be available, I'd take Beckham in a heart beat. He's got #1 overall talent and he plays a position that our farm system is severely lacking (SS). He may not be available though, and if Alvarez and Matusz also get taken in the top 3 picks, who the next best player available is gets much more cloudy. It could go several ways at that point. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[bluehens45]

1.Alvarez
2.Beckham
3.Hosmer
4.Smoak

I really think someone will emerge that will be drafted in the top 3 and Alvarez or Beckham will fall to us. I could actually see Beckham going #1. If we draft Alvarez, does he stay at 3rd? What about Rowell and Snyder? On another note how great would it be if we signed Edward Salcedo and then drafted Hosmer. Hosmer is the guy i really like behind Alvarez and Beckham. I know its far fetched but we have the money why not take a risk on the kid. I read somewhere that they were surprised a team looking to rebuild like us had not gotten into the running for him. Im hoping with Alou down in the DR we start tapping into the spanish market.

[justD]

Love getting more info on (esp. good info) on Tim Beckham.

I'm not sure if you were just commenting that you loved getting the tidbit that Callis offered up, or if you were looking to get still more info, but in case you (or others reading this thread) haven't seen it, JTrea81 posted a BA article link in this thread. (http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59112)

By the way, thanks again for this thread, appreciate the time you took.

[hoosiers]

Although it would be nice, I doubt we make a splash like Salcedo or any other $1M bonus baby on the international scene. PA seems to give $ to make an investment. If the investment pays off, he'll give more. If not, he might not give again.

I think we will dip out toes in this year with a starter budget and, if it appears that was $ well spent, that budget will increase.

[bluehens45]

Although it would be nice, I doubt we make a splash like Salcedo or any other $1M bonus baby on the international scene. PA seems to give $ to make an investment. If the investment pays off, he'll give more. If not, he might not give again.

I think we will dip out toes in this year with a starter budget and, if it appears that was $ well spent, that budget will increase.

Could not agree more. I really hope we start taking a serious look at other countries including the pacific rim.

[rhall]

Could not agree more. I really hope we start taking a serious look at other countries including the pacific rim.

International scouting and player development is one of the biggest areas that MacPhail has reformed, and Angelos has been backing his efforts.


MacPhail went on to say that Peter Angelos, the managing partner of the Orioles, has backed him at every juncture. He supported that claim with a point-by-point demonstration of the cooperation he's received in the rebuilding effort.

"I asked for an improved presence outside the United States, particularly in the Dominican Republic, and we've got a brand new facility there coming online," he said. "We've changed our entire way of how we computerize our reports. We're going to have a brand new video system that's state-of-the-art for next season. As competitive as he is, as much money as he's thrown at this and as much as he wants to win, I've tried to make the case that I think it's time that we take some of our existing assets and trade them for as many future assets as we can. He's been on board and he's been great."

MacPhail also said that the Orioles will begin increased scouting in the Pacific Rim, and that John Stockstill will soon be promoted to director of international scouting. All in all, he said he's "batting 1.000" in terms of asking for things and getting them done, and contends that he's much more comfortable with the team than he was when he arrived.

Source (http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080208&content_id=2368953&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal)

[rhall]

I'm not sure if you were just commenting that you loved getting the tidbit that Callis offered up, or if you were looking to get still more info, but in case you (or others reading this thread) haven't seen it, JTrea81 posted a BA article link in this thread. (http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59112)

By the way, thanks again for this thread, appreciate the time you took.

Thanks. I've actually read that article before, back when it was first posted on BA's website. That's when I first heard of him, actually. Since then I've casually been scoping out more info and opinions on him. Everything so far as only persuaded me further that he would be the best player for the Orioles to pick.

[Jammer7]

Tanner Scheppers sounds familiar. I believe he was out of the 2005 draft. We drafted him - the guy who threw too hard for any catcher on his HS team so he had to dial it back. I wanted that guy signed - or maybe I have the wrong guy.

I believe you are correct Hoosiers. I was really hoping we'd pony up and sign him as well. Well, maybe he'll slide a little and we'll get him in the 2nd or 3rd round this time.

[Jammer7]

I was looking at the top prospects in the system last night, and I realized just how badly we are lacking in real ML quality SS prospects and top impact athletes in general. Beckham would be both. Alvarez is a surer thing with the bat, but the ceiling of Beckham is much greater overall. Alvarez is maybe looking at a position change to LF or 1B, but if he and Beckham were both available, I'd say we should take Alvarez.

I've read a lot about Matusz, but not as much about Crow. Crow may not have the long track record, but if Alvarez, Beckham and Matusz are gone and we end up with a pick between Crow, Hosmer and Smoak...who should JJ pick? (Of course, that is assuming no one else blows up.) I may take Hosmer, but Crow may be real tough to pass up.

[rhall]

I was looking at the top prospects in the system last night, and I realized just how badly we are lacking in real ML quality SS prospects and top impact athletes in general. Beckham would be both. Alvarez is a surer thing with the bat, but the ceiling of Beckham is much greater overall. Alvarez is maybe looking at a position change to LF or 1B, but if he and Beckham were both available, I'd say we should take Alvarez.

I've read a lot about Matusz, but not as much about Crow. Crow may not have the long track record, but if Alvarez, Beckham and Matusz are gone and we end up with a pick between Crow, Hosmer and Smoak...who should JJ pick? (Of course, that is assuming no one else blows up.) I may take Hosmer, but Crow may be real tough to pass up.

Who to take? It's hard to say, and maybe you can't go wrong with any of the three, but you're right, Crow could be hard to pass up. He has great control of a mid to upper 90's fastball and a good slider. I think he was rated as the best prospect in the most recent Cape Cod league. Getting nitpicky, but one knock on him has been, if his stuff is so great why doesn't he strike more guys out? If his strikeout rate goes up this year, he may solidify his place in that 4th spot and if his changeup or other 3rd pitch gets better he could even challenge Matusz as the top college pitcher.

[Jammer7]

Who to take? It's hard to say, and maybe you can't go wrong with any of the three, but you're right, Crow could be hard to pass up. He has great control of a mid to upper 90's fastball and a good slider. I think he was rated as the best prospect in the most recent Cape Cod league. Getting nitpicky, but one knock on him has been, if his stuff is so great why doesn't he strike more guys out? If his strikeout rate goes up this year, he may solidify his place in that 4th spot and if his changeup or other 3rd pitch gets better he could even challenge Matusz as the top college pitcher.

Agreed on Crow.

There's a long way to go, but I'm hoping that a 5-tool OF rises rapidly and we grab him. Maybe a guy like Isaac Galloway, but he's considered very raw at the plate. If he doesn't jump up, maybe he'll still be around in round 2. We need more athletes who can play CF and SS as well later in the draft.

[rhall]

Agreed on Crow.

There's a long way to go, but I'm hoping that a 5-tool OF rises rapidly and we grab him. Maybe a guy like Isaac Galloway, but he's considered very raw at the plate. If he doesn't jump up, maybe he'll still be around in round 2. We need more athletes who can play CF and SS as well later in the draft.

I'd love to be able to grab Galloway in the 2nd round, too. Although it may be tough since round 2 is more like 2.5 with all the supplemental/sandwich picks after round 1.

[geschinger]

Wait...so it is already known that Boras will represent Alverez? I don’t understand why he thinks that the Pirates will def draft him if the DRays pass on him. I may be missing something, but when did the Pirates start to spend money on anything? I could def see them passing on Alverez if Boras is his agent. I can all 3 teams passing on him. Teams that do not like to spend always seem to pass on Boras clients. Does anyone remember J. Weaver and S. Drew from a few years ago?

The Jared Weaver and Stephen Drew examples (and Wieters to a lessor extent) make it much more likely for Pittsburgh to take a chance on a Boras client. Not many teams were willing to go anywhere near Boras' asking price for Weaver and Drew (north of 10m) but they saw that if you are willing to lose the player, Boras will compromise. Both signed for less than half their original asking price. Wieters was a bit more expensive but he also didn't get the Tex money some said he was looking for. I could definately see the Pirates taking a chance to draft the best player available shooting for an ~5m bonus which Boras will likely end up accepting in the end.