Top 2008 Draft Prospects: Eric Hosmer

[Greg Pappas]

Key: (X) is their age at the time of the 2008 Draft

3. Eric Hosmer {High School 1B} (18). For me, Hosmer may be the single best 1B prospect in the last 20 years, and while some discount his value for being a 1B'man, I have him as the overall best prospect in the draft. He is big at 6' 4 200, and strong enough to launch massive shot after massive shot throughout both batting practice and in the games he plays. Already a very good defender at 1B, Eric profiles as a middle of the order beast. With perhaps the sweetest swing in the draft he won the WWBA (World Wood Bat Association)Tourney MVP back in October, adding to an impressive collection of accolades.

While High School phenom Tim Beckham gets the most rave reviews for being the next great 5-tool talent, it is Hosmer that has been the most consistent player. Coupling tremendous defensive and offensive skill-sets makes Hosmer a legit threat to go in the top 5.

Greg's Grade (1-100) = 92

Next up> College RHSP Aaron Crow.

[wayne25]

Good to see you feel this way about Hosmer. I think he should be our pick , unless Smoak and Alverez have great seasons and are there for our pick. I don't get the "discount for 1st basemen! I mean would you discount Pujols, Howard, or eddie Murray "just because" they play 1st?? Its crazy.

[wayne25]

Unless Smoak and Alvarez have great seasons and are available Hosmer is my pick. Why the discount at 1st? Would they discount Pujols, Howard, or Eddie Murray. Its just silly.

[WebLink21]

Wow, great read. Kind of starting to sway me a little from taking Beckham if Alvarez if off the board. I am def going to have to watch how his season unfolds. This is the kind of high school talent that can jump right into the top 3 picks and maybe push Alvarez to us. If not, this is the exact kind of power prospect that we need in the system.

[Hutman]

Wow! Great write-up and great ranking, sounds like a great #4 hitter for years to come. Definitly sounds like someone who would look great in an O's uniform. Even though Rowell may wind up there, it be a good problem to have.

[DocJJ]

We already have Rowell and Snyder in the system. IF (big if) they catch fire and start putting up big numbers, they both project as first basemen. There's a chance Rowell might stick at 3rd base, but I think both these guys end up at first.

On the other hand, you can't have too many great hitters, so you could always DH one, move one to left field, etc.

However, we do need shortstops badly in our organization, so Beckham might be tempting....

[wineball]

I really think you have to take a great bat in the first round and not worry about position. With the next pick (around 46) you then start thinking about positions. Maybe that is where you take a high ceiling shortstop or second baseman. Then in rounds three through six you take 3 pitchers and an outfielder.

My only concern with Hosmer is that he is probably not ready until 2011 at the earliest. Smoak on the other hand might fit into the plan better as he would probably arrive in late 2009 or 2010- one year after Wieters and Riemold and probably right with Rowell and Snyder.

[Jammer7]

Great work Greg, as always! I'm also a big fan of Hosmer. If he is indeed the best overall bat in the draft and he's able to play 1B like he is reputed to be able to, you take him if he's available regardless of position. Long way to go, we'll see if he can maintain that staus.

[DennisTheOsFan]

Smoak vs. Hosmer. Who has the higher ceiling? Smoak has had two terrific collegiate seasons, which means more seasoning beyond the high school rank. But does Hosmer have better raw potential?

[bluehens45]

Smoak vs. Hosmer. Who has the higher ceiling? Smoak has had two terrific collegiate seasons, which means more seasoning beyond the high school rank. But does Hosmer have better raw potential?

I love Hosmer. I think with a good year he and Mellville both could jump into the top 3. Hosmer has a higher ceiling than Smoak, but Smoak is a switch hitter which would be great for us!

[napbow]

I love Hosmer. I think with a good year he and Mellville both could jump into the top 3. Hosmer has a higher ceiling than Smoak, but Smoak is a switch hitter which would be great for us!

We will be happy with either of them. The idea of having two switch hitters at the 4 and 5 spots is enticing, but so is 30-40hr potential.

I think this will be the first season where I actually watch college baseball (besides the last 3 games).

[bluehens45]

We will be happy with either of them. The idea of having two switch hitters at the 4 and 5 spots is enticing, but so is 30-40hr potential.

I think this will be the first season where I actually watch college baseball (besides the last 3 games).

I would like to see us fork over a signing bonus and get Salcedo then draft Hosmer/Smoak. How nice of an infield would Salcedo, Hosmer/Smoak, Rowell, Weiters and hopefully someone like Dykstra in the 2nd round to play 2nd. With Reimold, Jones, and Kakes. Then let Snyder DH. That would be something to marvel at.

[napbow]

I would like to see us fork over a signing bonus and get Salcedo then draft Hosmer/Smoak. How nice of an infield would Salcedo, Hosmer/Smoak, Rowell, Weiters and hopefully someone like Dykstra in the 2nd round to play 2nd. With Reimold, Jones, and Kakes. Then let Snyder DH. That would be something to marvel at.

If that happens I will never own a house. I will keep spending my deposit on season tickets.

[DennisTheOsFan]

I guess neither Smoak or Hosmer have the upside of Teixeira (going off of the stats Tex put up at Georgia Tech), but if Reimold pans out as our LF and Snyder puts up good numbers at 1B, we may not need Tex if we have Smoak or Hosmer at DH/1B, right?

[Greg Pappas]

Smoak vs. Hosmer. Who has the higher ceiling? Smoak has had two terrific collegiate seasons, which means more seasoning beyond the high school rank. But does Hosmer have better raw potential?

Comparing players is certainly a dicey proposition, but I believe that they are both tremendous talents with fantastic projectable skill-sets.

Hosmer, for me, just has a mystique about him... there is something special about the kid that cannot be quantified merely relaying statistical and scouting analysis. It's awfully early to be guessing, but while I would be elated with Smoak, I think Hosmer is the higher upside player. If he plays as expected, the name of Eric Hosmer will be prominent come early round one.

Smoak is the older and more experienced player, who switch hits and handles himself fairly well at first. He could project as a .300/.370/.480/.850'ish first sacker with 25 HR's and solid run production, regardless of where he bats.

I truly would be pleased with either of them.

[Greg Pappas]

I guess neither Smoak or Hosmer have the upside of Teixeira (going off of the stats Tex put up at Georgia Tech), but if Reimold pans out as our LF and Snyder puts up good numbers at 1B, we may not need Tex if we have Smoak or Hosmer at DH/1B, right?

I disagree with the premise that neither has Teixiera's upside. At his best, Smoak could be another Teixiera, but Hosmer could eventually be as good or even exceed Teixiera's career as a ML'er. I know, that's a bold statement, but I remind you that I said could. I hope that Hosmer does blow up even more this season, although the opposition in HS may just treat him a bit like Bonds and pitch around him this season.

Rowell and Snyder both could wind up at third or first... but the odds are that just one will. It's my draft philosophy that you take the best talent available (with a strong understanding of the longer odds pitcher's face in round one) and sort out whatever positional issues you have later.

[Greg Pappas]

Great work Greg, as always! I'm also a big fan of Hosmer. If he is indeed the best overall bat in the draft and he's able to play 1B like he is reputed to be able to, you take him if he's available regardless of position. Long way to go, we'll see if he can maintain that staus.

Great to see you again Jammer. We agree as usual.

[DennisTheOsFan]

I really don't know much about Smoak (or Hosmer), except what I see from the stats. But if we do use stats to compare players, it would seem that Teixeira was far more dominating in his one year at G-Tech, than Smoak's best year at S. Carolina.

But stats don't tell the whole story. If Smoak can put up numbers comparable to Teixeira's, I'd love to grab him at 4.

Does Hosmer project to put up bigger power numbers than Smoak?

[Greg Pappas]

I really don't know much about Smoak (or Hosmer), except what I see from the stats. But if we do use stats to compare players, it would seem that Teixeira was far more dominating in his one year at G-Tech, than Smoak's best year at S. Carolina.

But stats don't tell the whole story. If Smoak can put up numbers comparable to Teixeira's, I'd love to grab him at 4.

Does Hosmer project to put up bigger power numbers than Smoak?

As best as these things can be projected... yes.

[bluehens45]

Check out the kids stroke. There are 3-4 other videos as well. He has one of the sweetest swings i have ever seen from a high school kid.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjD_RmXiwrI&feature=related

[WebLink21]

Check out the kids stroke. There are 3-4 other videos as well. He has one of the sweetest swings i have ever seen from a high school kid.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjD_RmXiwrI&feature=related

Nice!! Everytime I see or read about this kid, the more I become more convinced that he should be our pick(if he lasts). Did you hear the guy in the background when he hit it? "God D@mn!" haha. I was thinking the same thing. :D

[justD]

Edit: As pointed out in JCKs post below, wrong video. Thought it best to delete the post content to eliminate as much confusion as possible. Apologies!

[JCK]

Check out the kids stroke. There are 3-4 other videos as well. He has one of the sweetest swings i have ever seen from a high school kid.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjD_RmXiwrI&feature=related

Very nice. Against a lefty too. Might not seem like a big deal, but HS hitters don't get to face many good lefties, so for a left handed hitter to crank one like that off a lefty shows some nice polish.

Of course, that pitch was about 65mph, but still.

[JCK]

This is my favorite of the group, really getting some great perspectives on his swing...and I also love the reaction right at the end when he hits the home run over the York "Green Monster" (where the York Revolution play...)

<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/WVyMOjBcd1U&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WVyMOjBcd1U&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>That's not Hosmer...

[justD]

Ahh. My bad. Just followed the title of the group, and wasn't even paying attention to who I was seeing.

He did look smaller than the "beast" that Greg had talked about, I'll admit that (and batting from the other side...sheesh, d, pay attention)...:o

[justD]

A scouting report on Hosmer (and Ethan Martin) by Matt Blood of BA:


10:00 p.m. Friday, March 7, American Heritage HS vs. Stephens County HS, Granger Park:

[I saw] the noticeable difference in the velocity and life on Stephens County's Ethan Martin's 96 mph fastball on his second pitch to American Heritage's Eric Hosmer. Then later in the at-bat, the depth and plane on a sharp 81 mph slider perfectly placed, low and away, freezing Hosmer for strike three. Everything about those two pitches screamed well above-average—he pitched like a major leaguer in that matchup and for most of the game.

Staying in the same game, a few innings later, Hosmer faced Martin again, and this time Hosmer won. Martin left a 91 mph fastball up in the zone and Hosmer displayed his blindly fast and explosive bat speed, hitting the ball on a direct line from his bat to the top right section of the scoreboard in left-center field. Everyone was in awe, even Martin, as he exchanged smiles and a laugh with Hosmer as he rounded second base.


Eric Hosmer: You can't teach his size and bat speed. I thought I was watching a high school version of Mark Teixeira.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/news/2008/265733.html

[rhall]

A scouting report on Hosmer (and Ethan Martin) by Matt Blood of BA:






http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/news/2008/265733.html

I thought Ethan Martin was a power hitting third baseman. I guess he pitches, too.

That is certainly impressive for Hosmer to launch a line drive that far off of 90+ mph pitching in HS. You don't see guys throwing that hard all the time in HS, so for him to rake against it leads me to believe the transition to pro ball won't be too difficult for him (comparatively).

[justD]

I though Ethan Martin was a power hitting third baseman? I guess he pitches, too.

From the same Matt Blood article, next day:


3:00 p.m. Saturday, March 8, Stephens County HS vs. Nova HS, Granger Park:

[I saw] the strength in Martin's top hand as he whipped his bat through the zone with a level stroke (coming from up high to meet the ball—not uppercutting), driving a high pitch over the center-field fence. Martin plays the game with a country strong mentality and this swing reiterated that point.

In the same game, Martin showed his quick hands, defensive ability and toughness when he picked a sharp short hop hit at him while playing third base. He cleanly devoured the ball and then made a noticeably strong throw across the diamond getting the out—the day after throwing 130 pitches against American Heritage.

[justD]

By the way, I just noticed that they'd been using Hosmer as a pitcher earlier in the season as well. End of Feb, he faced two batters and struck out both for a save, and Mar. 8 he pitched 2 innings, faced 8 batters, and struck out 5.

Not that I imagine him as a pitcher...

[rhall]

As best as these things can be projected... yes.

If this is at all true... if there is even a possibility of Hosmer projecting to have more power than Smoak, then they need to stop comparing Hosmer to Casey Kotchman. Smoak is being projected to be a middle of the lineup producer and member of the 30 homerun club. I don't think anyone is projecting Kotchman to hit for that much power. He's a great hitter, but he doesn't try to hit homeruns.

To have people project Hosmer as having this big power bat and then compare him closely to Kotchman seems a little contradictory. They should clarify that they are only referring to Hosmer's polish at the plate, which could compare to Kotchman's.

[Hutman]

If this is at all true... if there is even a possibility of Hosmer projecting to have more power than Smoak, then they need to stop comparing Hosmer to Casey Kotchman. Smoak is being projected to be a middle of the lineup producer and member of the 30 homerun club. I don't think anyone is projecting Kotchman to hit for that much power. He's a great hitter, but he doesn't try to hit homeruns.

To have people project Hosmer as having this big power bat and then compare him closely to Kotchman seems a little contradictory. They should clarify that they are only referring to Hosmer's polish at the plate, which could compare to Kotchman's.

Absolutely true, if the Matt Blood quote above says Texeria vs. Kotchman. There is a world of difference between those two at this point. Kotchman is a good average hitter with some power, while Tex is a premium power bat. Obviously we need a premium power bat in a big way.

[Greg Pappas]

Absolutely true, if the Matt Blood quote above says Texeria vs. Kotchman. There is a world of difference between those two at this point. Kotchman is a good average hitter with some power, while Tex is a premium power bat. Obviously we need a premium power bat in a big way.

Hosmer projects to have great power, and in my view will eventually be a 35+ guy in the majors. Therefor the Kotchman comp is a little light, at least as far as power goes. Hosmer is Kotchman-like around the bag and is a good average hitter with a good eye as well. So I can see the other likenesses.

[hoosiers]

Absolutely true, if the Matt Blood quote above says Texeria vs. Kotchman. There is a world of difference between those two at this point. Kotchman is a good average hitter with some power, while Tex is a premium power bat. Obviously we need a premium power bat in a big way.

I think the key is the phrase "at this point" - March 2008.

Kotchman was a top, top prospect a few years ago hitting for a strong average with expected development of power. I interpret a Kotchman comp as a nice compliment.

I have the feeling I will post this 25 times between now and June. I understand the attraction of a top bat like Smoak, but I continue to read articles that feed the impression that Hosmer is the type of HS bat that comes along once very five to 10 years. It would be very, very difficult to pass on that kind of bat.

[Greg Pappas]

I think the key is the phrase "at this point" - March 2008.

Kotchman was a top, top prospect a few years ago hitting for a strong average with expected development of power. I interpret a Kotchman comp as a nice compliment.

I have the feeling I will post this 25 times between now and June. I understand the attraction of a top bat like Smoak, but I continue to read articles that feed the impression that Hosmer is the type of HS bat that comes along once very five to 10 years. It would be very, very difficult to pass on that kind of bat.

You. You're good you. You're good. You gotta gift... an attempt at paraphrasing DeNiro from Analyze This. :D

Hosmer, for me, just radiates 'special'. And while I don't believe we'll take him at #4 :( , I look forward to watching his progress as a pro, and expect that in a couple of years that some teams are going to be kicking themselves for passing on him.

[Hutman]

Hosmer, for me, just radiates 'special'. And while I don't believe we'll take him at #4 :( , I look forward to watching his progress as a pro, and expect that in a couple of years that some teams are going to be kicking themselves for passing on him.

Greg - Can you handicap the decision between Hosmer and Smoak? Most of the comparisons i've seen are fairly close with Smoak being 3 yrs older and putting up numbers at a high D1 level. What is your take?

[DennisTheOsFan]

You. You're good you. You're good. You gotta gift... an attempt at paraphrasing DeNiro from Analyze This. :D

Hosmer, for me, just radiates 'special'. And while I don't believe we'll take him at #4 :( , I look forward to watching his progress as a pro, and expect that in a couple of years that some teams are going to be kicking themselves for passing on him.

We shouldn't count out Hosmer at 4. If the organization feels Hosmer will be the better player down the road, we could pass up on Smoak and take Hosmer.

I like the numbers Smoak is putting up at the college level, but from what is being said about Hosmer, he may end up the better hitter.

[Stotle]

We shouldn't count out Hosmer at 4. If the organization feels Hosmer will be the better player down the road, we could pass up on Smoak and take Hosmer.

I like the numbers Smoak is putting up at the college level, but from what is being said about Hosmer, he may end up the better hitter.

Ehhhhh, I don't know about all of the love for Hosmer as a top 5 guy. He's a fair amount behind where Moustakas was last year (best bat in the draft) and I might even put him behind where Vitters was, as well. He isn't as dynamic a player as Beckham and he doesn't play as valuable a position in the field. If he isn't ahead of the top HS talent, and isn't really compared to either Moustakas or Vitters, I'm not sure I can rank him ahead of the top college hitters (Alvarez/Alonso/Smoak). I think I'd slot him in the second half of the first 10, and I wouldn't pass on any of Alvarez/Beckham/Matusz/Smoak/Crow to get him.

[Hutman]

I'm not sure I can rank him ahead of the top college hitters (Alvarez/Alonso/Smoak). I think I'd slot him in the second half of the first round, and I wouldn't pass on any of Alvarez/Beckham/Matusz/Smoak/Crow to get him.

I agree he's not in my top 5 yet, but from what I've read he certainly is in the top 10 to 15 prospects. Its still very early in the season and he can certainly jump to that top tier. Vitters and Moustakas jumped based on their performance as seniors.

[Stotle]

I agree he's not in my top 5 yet, but from what I've read he certainly is in the top 10 to 15 prospects. Its still very early in the season and he can certainly jump to that top tier. Vitters and Moustakas jumped based on their performance as seniors.

I meant second half of the top 10, sorry.

Moustakas broke his HS single-season HR record as a junior and then broke the CA state record as a senior. Vitters became a top-5 talent the summer between his junior and senior season when he tore-up the various summer showcases, including the Cape Cod All-Star Showcase.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg - Can you handicap the decision between Hosmer and Smoak? Most of the comparisons i've seen are fairly close with Smoak being 3 yrs older and putting up numbers at a high D1 level. What is your take?

While Stotle and I disagree about Hosmer's value, being a 1B'man does detract somewhat from a player's perceived worth. With that being said, Alvarez (May be a 1B'man or OF if not 3B), Smoak and Hosmer are all legit top 5 threats, and DH/1B slugger Yonder Alonso could leap into consideration as well.

Smoak is probably the safer pick between he and Hosmer. Justin is a proven college talent, who switch hits, plays a very good defensive 1B, and has very good power.

Hosmer, like Moustakas, Vitters and many other great HS bats, has been great over the past summer, and won the World Wood Bat Association Tournament MVP in late October. Hosmer bats left, has light-tower power, plays excellent defensively at 1B and takes the ball to the opposite field well. The last HS 1B'man with this kind of power and presence is doing quite alright... Prince Fielder.

Both should be very good pro's... it's just a matter of what you want out of that pick.

[Greg Pappas]

Ehhhhh, I don't know about all of the love for Hosmer as a top 5 guy. He's a fair amount behind where Moustakas was last year (best bat in the draft) and I might even put him behind where Vitters was, as well. He isn't as dynamic a player as Beckham and he doesn't play as valuable a position in the field. If he isn't ahead of the top HS talent, and isn't really compared to either Moustakas or Vitters, I'm not sure I can rank him ahead of the top college hitters (Alvarez/Alonso/Smoak). I think I'd slot him in the second half of the first 10, and I wouldn't pass on any of Alvarez/Beckham/Matusz/Smoak/Crow to get him.

Who besides Beckham is ranked over Hosmer in the HS ranks?

[Stotle]

Who besides Beckham is ranked over Hosmer in the HS ranks?

In my opinion, for position players, I'd say just Beckham and Martinez.

[Hutman]

In my opinion, for position players, I'd say just Beckham and Martinez.

I think its a coin flip at the moment between Hosmer and Martinez. We'll see where we are at as we get closer to June. Martinez has the advantage of playing a premium position, but Hosmer is suppossed to be a special hitter as well as a good defensive 1B.