Top 2008 Draft Prospects: Justin Smoak

[Greg Pappas]

Key: (X) is their age at the time of the 2008 Draft

5. Justin Smoak {College 1B } (21). I love Smoak... in a manly way naturally. ;)

Justin was a borderline 1st rounder as a High School senior, and the switch-hitting first sacker has gone nothing to disappoint the South Carolina fan base since his freshman campaign in '06. Smoak is well built at 6' 3 200 lbs., with sound swing mechanics from both sides of the plate and generates both good average and good power. He has played very well in the Cape Cod League (Collegiate Wood Bat League) and projects quite well as a big leaguer. Justin has a decent eye, but can be a bit undisciplined. However, he does play a very good 1B.

The comparisons to Mark Teixeira have been and will be there, but Smoak should make his own 'mark' on the game he loves. I project Smoak as an outstanding defensive first baseman, with the following line a rough estimate of his hitting abilities> .285/.365/.485/.850 with 30'ish HR's and good run production.

A very solid choice for any team looking for an advanced college bat.

Greg's Grade (1-100) = 87

Next up> High School SS Tim Beckham.

[gil5ctless]

Great shape... hungry and should and will believed.,

[gil5ctless]

Great shape... hungry and should and will believed.,

My Grandad was with the Browns minors till World War 1 ruined his chance. How many Orioles fans remember the Browns?

[DennisTheOsFan]

If Alvarez is gone by the time we pick at 4, I'm looking at Smoak. I want to see how Hosmer does this season--if he does well, he could move ahead of Smoak on my list.

Reason why Smoak is higher up on my list right now is because he's proven himself at the college ranks, and the Cape Cod League.

[napbow]

Greg, do you think Smoak has a chance of batting over .285? I am not exactly sure what Law projected for him in a couple of his chats but I believe it was around the .300-.310 range.

Alvarez, Beckham, Smoak and Hosmer; those are the four I want. This season should dictate the order in which they are drafted.

[DennisTheOsFan]

Greg, do you think Smoak has a chance of batting over .285? I am not exactly sure what Law projected for him in a couple of his chats but I believe it was around the .300-.310 range.

Alvarez, Beckham, Smoak and Hosmer; those are the four I want. This season should dictate the order in which they are drafted.

I like those 4, possibly in that order. We will be in position to draft one of those 4. If we draft a pitcher who isn't a clear future #1, I will feel disheartened.

[blueguy]

I am big fan of your draft coverage. I was curious about your baseball background? Are you a former scout, player or just big fan?

[Greg Pappas]

Greg, do you think Smoak has a chance of batting over .285? I am not exactly sure what Law projected for him in a couple of his chats but I believe it was around the .300-.310 range.

Alvarez, Beckham, Smoak and Hosmer; those are the four I want. This season should dictate the order in which they are drafted.

He certainly can bat better than .285, but I am normally cautionary as concerns projections. Batting .300+ is a very real possibility.

[Greg Pappas]

I am big fan of your draft coverage. I was curious about your baseball background? Are you a former scout, player or just big fan?

Thanks for the kind words.

I am not a professional scout, nor former player, but as you said at the end... big fan. I follow the draft through various scouting services and the occasional inquiry into certain players. I base my ratings upon many factors, but most comes from the hard work and time put in by other sources, such as Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels and many other reputable services and sources. I have discoved through personal research that there is a pattern of success in which prospects are the most successful, and use my data to help me in my determinations of which youngsters to choose.

Quite soon I'm beginning my very own website, dedicated to the MLB draft, and it will be called MLB-Draft.com. :)

[napbow]

soon I'm beginning my very own website, dedicated to the MLB draft, and it will be called MLB-Draft.com. :)

And I will be subscribing!

[Greg Pappas]

And I will be subscribing!

Thanks a great deal. :)

[WebLink21]

Justin Smoak's first game is today at 3:00 vs. East Carloina. I will come back with his stats if someone doesn't beat me to it. :D

[WebLink21]

The game was canceled I believe. It is no longer on the schedule and now there is a double header tomorrow. Must be bad weather in SC too.

[WebLink21]

Justin Smoak went 3-5 against ECU with a 2 BB (1 intentional), single, double, HR, 3 RBI. He is really impresive so far

[Greg Pappas]

Justin Smoak went 3-5 against ECU with a BB, single, double, HR, 3 RBI. He is really impresive so far

Thanks for the update. :)

[WebLink21]

Thanks for the update. :)

No problem. It was a good game to watch to learn something about Smoak. He was really hitting the ball well. Nice swing with power.

[WebLink21]

Justin Smoak is in game 2 of a double header against ECU

He went 1-4 - BB, single

[WebLink21]

Today Justin Smaok played ECU.

He went 1-3 with a 2 run HR, 3 BB (1 intentional).

This kid is really impressive. Much more than I thought he would be.

[Greg Pappas]

Today Justin Smaok played ECU.

He went 1-3 with a 2 run HR, 2 BB (1 intentional).

This kid is really impressive. Much more than I thought he would be.

As always... thanks so much for the updates. Smoak is starting the season hot... it bodes well for his draft status as among the very best players coming out.

[napbow]

Weblink, thank you for the updates.

Do you know if he is hitting equally from both sides of the plate or does it look like he is more comfortable hitting from the right or left?

[WebLink21]

Weblink, thank you for the updates.

Do you know if he is hitting equally from both sides of the plate or does it look like he is more comfortable hitting from the right or left?

No problem. I enjoy doing it. I know not everyone has time to see all the games. I have no life so it gives me something to do for the board :D

To answer your question. He looks very comfortable from both sides of the plates and has power from both sides as well. This guy is a joy to watch so far. He is one of those players that you just know enjoys playing the game. The announcers were talking about him with the utmost respect. He seems like a very safe (in a good way) player. The announcers were saying that they think he could be up in the bigs after just one season in the minors at the most. He not only was good last year in college, but he also was the MVP of his Cape Cod league this fall and lead them in HR's. I think he is someone to really keep your eyes on this year. I was impressed.

[Battleship]

No problem. I enjoy doing it. I know not everyone has time to see all the games. I have no life so it gives me something to do for the board :D

To answer your question. He looks very comfortable from both sides of the plates and has power from both sides as well. This guy is a joy to watch so far. He is one of those players that you just know enjoys playing the game. The announcers were talking about him with the utmost respect. He seems like a very safe (in a good way) player. The announcers were saying that they think he could be up in the bigs after just one season in the minors at the most. He not only was good last year in college, but he also was the MVP of his Cape Cod league this fall and lead them in HR's. I think he is someone to really keep your eyes on this year. I was impressed.

Actually it was 2006 that he was in the Cape. He played for Team USA in 2007 and had an awful run. Alvarez had way better stats on the same team.

[WebLink21]

Actually it was 2006 that he was in the Cape. He played for Team USA in 2007 and had an awful run. Alvarez had way better stats on the same team.

I must have misunderstood. I was just trying to relay the excitement the announcers had about the kid.

[Battleship]

I must have misunderstood. I was just trying to relay the excitement the announcers had about the kid.

Everything I read expresses excitement about him. It'll be interesting to see if he signs with Boras and how far he drops because of it. There are some like Keith Law who think he's the best player in the draft.

[WebLink21]

Everything I read expresses excitement about him. It'll be interesting to see if he signs with Boras and how far he drops because of it. There are some like Keith Law who think he's the best player in the draft.

I was really disappointed that Alvarez did not play more this weekend. They both had many games on the schedule and I was looking forward to seeing them both. He looked pretty good this weekend. If he keeps it up, I can def see him being right there in the top 5.

[napbow]

After reading Roch's updates I have a question. Does anyone else feel that Weiter's season will have a serious effect on who we draft this year?

I really feel that Smoak and Alvarez are going to be the closest thing to a mature bat in this year's draft(similar to Weiters last year). Already we are getting quotes from players and coaches stating he is on the fast track. Well...if you are the Orioles, why wouldn't you draft the same type of player?

I have done a complete 180 on Beckham and Smoak. I want the more sure thing. I want a staple at 1st, CF, RF, and Catcher (offense and defense). Between Rowell, Snyder and Reimold we should have a 3B and LF. That is 6 out of the 8 positions. I'm sure the team can address the MI positions through further trades, drafts and FA.

I love drunk posting.

[WebLink21]

After reading Roch's updates I have a question. Does anyone else feel that Weiter's season will have a serious effect on who we draft this year?

I really feel that Smoak and Alvarez are going to be the closest thing to a mature bat in this year's draft(similar to Weiters last year). Already we are getting quotes from players and coaches stating he is on the fast track. Well...if you are the Orioles, why wouldn't you draft the same type of player?

I have done a complete 180 on Beckham and Smoak. I want the more sure thing. I want a staple at 1st, CF, RF, and Catcher (offense and defense). Between Rowell, Snyder and Reimold we should have a 3B and LF. That is 6 out of the 8 positions. I'm sure the team can address the MI positions through further trades, drafts and FA.

I love drunk posting.

Drunk posting is the best. You made alot of sense for a drunk post.:D

I don't know if you read or not, but Alvarez was hurt this weekend and only played in one game. I watched all three of Smoak's games and I think he may be the closest thing (without seeing Alvarez play) that you can have in this draft. I think the kid is going to be a star. I agree with you 100% about Weiters having an affect on this pick. When I forst started reading about prospects, I had it Alvarez, Beckham, Hosmer and then Smoak. After watching last week though, I have rearranged it to be Alvarez, Smoak, Becham and Hosmer based simply on the fact that Alvarez and Smaok would be on the same timetable as Weiters would be. With a little luck, they could both be in the big league lineup by 2010. As you said, by that time we can have Jones, Markakis, Weiters, Smoak/Alvarez, Rowell, Reimold, and Snyder all on the team. That is a good start. The only problem that I see is that Hosmer and Alvarez are going to be REALLY tough to pass on if there.

[WebLink21]

Today vs. UNC Ashville, Smoak went 1-4 with a BB and a RBI single

[WebLink21]

Today vs. Clemson, Smoak went 1-4 an RBI single

[ChaosLex]

Smoak is slowly (but surely) becoming my favorite for the 2008 draft.

[DocJJ]

He hits equally well from both sides. That's pretty rare. His defense is good at first.

Hosmer is off to a hot start, but because he's only in high school, it may be a while until he's ML ready. Alonso is probably the top power hitter, but he has no defensive ability and will be a DH.

I heard Alvarez has a broken bone in his wrist and will be out a while.

[WebLink21]

Smoak is slowly (but surely) becoming my favorite for the 2008 draft.

Me too. In the beginning of the season I had it Alvarez, Beckham, Hosmer and then Smoak was a distant 4th. Then I started watching Smoak's games online and he has moved up to right behind Alvarez. He hits with power, average, walks alot and plays a good first base. Plus if we draft him, he will be on the same pace as Weiters will be. They could both reach the bigs by 2010. That would be a great foundation. Plus, if things go the way I think they will this season, we may have a top pick again next year.

1B - Smoak
2B -
SS -
3B - Rowell (hoping for big season)
RF - Markakis
CF - Jones
LF - Reimold/Snyder
C - Weiters

I like the direction.

[WebLink21]

He hits equally well from both sides. That's pretty rare. His defense is good at first.

Hosmer is off to a hot start, but because he's only in high school, it may be a while until he's ML ready. Alonso is probably the top power hitter, but he has no defensive ability and will be a DH.

I heard Alvarez has a broken bone in his wrist and will be out a while.

You are right. Alvarez will be out for atleast 6 weeks.

[bluehens45]

If Smoak continues to light it up we could easily be talking about him going #1 overall. Im hoping Alvarez falls to us but i would not complain about a Smoak pick either. Im really starting to think we should go best college hitter as there is a better chance they would ready around the same time as Rowell, Snyder, and Weiters. So if its between Alvarez and Smoak i may go Smoak because of the logjam at 3rd. This draft is deep and i have faith Jordan hits a homerun with the pick.

[baseballnelie]

I was hoping to come back here after the Clemson and University of South Carolina to post how poorly Smoak played against Clemson, but that isn't the case. In his last at bat in the 9th he gives them an insurance run with a bomb to right field making it 4-1. I hate the Gamecocks, and that would be something I'd have to get by with if we drafted Smoak in June. Go Tigers.

[DocJJ]

3-5 with an HR.

With Alvarez' injury, Smoak might be rocketing to the top of the list.

[WebLink21]

3-5 with an HR.

With Alvarez' injury, Smoak might be rocketing to the top of the list.

Another great day! Smoak really may take over the top college bat available in the draft if he keeps this up. At this point I would be estatic with either.

[Big Mac]

Man, the more I read about Smoak the more I like him. He might be the player I want most right now.

I could easily see him being a 35+ HR guy.

[clarence]

He keeps this up, he won't be available at #4.

[napbow]

He keeps this up, he won't be available at #4.

You never know, his performance could also drive up his contract demands.

[TJ Wrangler]

The whole Smoak/Wieters "switch hitting star hitter from the same hometown" idea really intrigues me.

[WebLink21]

3/7/08 vs. Duquesne, Smoak went 1-2 with 3 RBI's, and 2 walks. He had a big 2 run double and a sac fly. The thing I am the most impressed with is his walks. He seems to have a really good idea and is very patient.

[WebLink21]

3/8/08 vs. Duquesne, Smoak went 2-4 with 2 singles