Poll: If you could take any player at #4...

[Greg Pappas]

...who would it be? Again, if you could take ANY draft eligible player...

Just imagine we are picking first if that helps. :D

BTW, this poll assumes Alvarez rebounds well from his broken hand.

[napbow]

...who would it be? Again, if you could take ANY draft eligible player...

Just imagine we are picking first if that helps. :D

BTW, this poll assumes Alvarez rebounds well from his broken hand.

Order:

Alvarez
Smoak
Beckham

[byrdz]

Order:

Alvarez
Smoak
Beckham

I would go with this as well.

[Greg Pappas]

Order:

Alvarez
Smoak
Beckham

It's difficult to argue that order... although if Beckham's senior year is great, I'd have to take a looooong look at choosing him. If we get any of those three or my currently highest rated player Eric Hosmer, I'd be elated. Since we are picking fourth... I and we all should be very happy indeed.

[Greg Pappas]

This poll has me in fits LOL. :D Apologies in advance about mentioning HOF'ers or great pro's in comparisons, but it makes it easier to envision what could be.

Alvarez is the safest bet to be a very good pro 3B or 1B, though his defense is a bit shaky.

Smoak is a switch hitter with perhaps a bit more power than Alvarez, and is the better defender. #33-like? It's possible.

Beckham is the protypical Barry Larkin'esque shortstop prospect. He does it all very well, but as an 18 year old... a few years away.

Hosmer gives me visions of Will Clark, but with better power. That's an amazing combo.

I have to say, again, I'd be thrilled with any of these four... and there is still time for youngsters like Florida High School SS/3B Harold Martinez to shhot up into these players stratosphere. I love it!

[rhall]

I like Beckham for the Orioles.

He is a 5 tool player at a plus position and every scouting report I've read says he should be able to stay at SS. So long as he doesn't regress badly his senior year, he would be my #1 priority. If he has the talent and production to be worthy of a #1 pick AND he plays a prime position (not to mention one the O's are thin at) he should get preference over the corner infielders, IMO.

There are so many top talents available, though, that I don't think I'll be disappointed no matter who the O's end up drafting.

I also don't think we should be concerned with how long it will take them to get to the majors. We need to get the top talent, no matter what his age is. Targeting players who can reach the majors sooner is a good way to retard the rebuilding process. Even among players that seem more "advanced" there will be some duds that won't turn out. When you start making mistakes while going for the sure thing and passing on a player who could have a higher ceiling, the overall condition of the organization will suffer more. We can't compete with just solid players. There needs to be a few exceptional players sprinkled in there as well, and you need to take chances if you're going to get many of them. With how low the Orioles have sunk, we need a good number of "special" players.

That doesn't mean that we take someone with a high ceiling but a low probability to reach it... we just cannot limit ourselves to college bats because our major league team needs help and we want to get the draft pick through the system faster in order to help the parent club. What good is it if they get there and contribute quickly, but aren't difference makers?

This argument would certainly work for Greg's fav - Eric Hosmer- but I'm using it for my fav - Beckham.

[Greg Pappas]

I like Beckham for the Orioles.

He is a 5 tool player at a plus position and every scouting report I've read says he should be able to stay at SS. So long as he doesn't regress badly his senior year, he would be my #1 priority. If he has the talent and production to be worthy of a #1 pick AND he plays a prime position (not to mention one the O's are thin at) he should get preference over the corner infielders, IMO.

There are so many top talents available, though, that I don't think I'll be disappointed no matter who the O's end up drafting.

I also don't think we should be concerned with how long it will take them to get to the majors. We need to get the top talent, no matter what his age is. Targeting players who can reach the majors sooner is a good way to retard the rebuilding process. Even among players that seem more "advanced" there will be some duds that won't turn out. When you start making mistakes while going for the sure thing and passing on a player who could have a higher ceiling, the overall condition of the organization will suffer more. We can't compete with just solid players. There needs to be a few exceptional players sprinkled in there as well, and you need to take chances if you're going to get many of them. With how low the Orioles have sunk, we need a good number of "special" players.

That doesn't mean that we take someone with a high ceiling but a low probability to reach it... we just cannot limit ourselves to college bats because our major league team needs help and we want to get the draft pick through the system faster in order to help the parent club. What good is it if they get there and contribute quickly, but aren't difference makers?

This argument would certainly work for Greg's fav - Eric Hosmer- but I'm using it for my fav - Beckham.

Excellent post, and one I concur with. Beckham is a viable target for the #1 overall, and would be a great pick at #4, although I'll be pleasantly surprised if he'd last that long. High School bats historically perform well in the early first round, so Beckham certainly makes sense from that standpoint, and other important factors as well. I've a feeling neither Beckham nor Hosmer will be O's come June, but if Smoak or Alvarez are picked, its great regardless. :)

[mtairydan]

This poll has me in fits LOL. :D Apologies in advance about mentioning HOF'ers or great pro's in comparisons, but it makes it easier to envision what could be.

Alvarez is the safest bet to be a very good pro 3B or 1B, though his defense is a bit shaky.

Smoak is a switch hitter with perhaps a bit more power than Alvarez, and is the better defender. #33-like? It's possible.

Beckham is the protypical Barry Larkin'esque shortstop prospect. He does it all very well, but as an 18 year old... a few years away.

Hosmer gives me visions of Will Clark, but with better power. That's an amazing combo.

I have to say, again, I'd be thrilled with any of these four... and there is still time for youngsters like Florida High School SS/3B Harold Martinez to shoot up into these players stratosphere. I love it!
I would take Hosmer especially given your description above and his hot start to his season instead of one of the pitchers that IMO will be left to us.

[rhall]

Excellent post, and one I concur with. Beckham is a viable target for the #1 overall, and would be a great pick at #4, although I'll be pleasantly surprised if he'd last that long. High School bats historically perform well in the early first round, so Beckham certainly makes sense from that standpoint, and other important factors as well. I've a feeling neither Beckham nor Hosmer will be O's come June, but if Smoak or Alvarez are picked, its great regardless. :)

I don't expect Beckham or Hosmer to be O's either. Some organizations like to go college heavy or may be looking to take the top ranked pitcher with their first pick, especially if he's a local product (KC - Crow & Melville), so it's possible that Beckham slides to us at #4, but I'm certainly not holding my breath.

[wayne25]

I'd take Hosmer because I think he has the best bat, AND he very good with the glove. Should not matter if he is not a college guy. Bruce from Cinn, was a H.S. pick just 3 years ago. On draft day, take the best BAT available, other than Alonso(sp?) who looks to be a DH.

[Amazin]

I like Beckham for the Orioles.

He is a 5 tool player at a plus position and every scouting report I've read says he should be able to stay at SS. So long as he doesn't regress badly his senior year, he would be my #1 priority. If he has the talent and production to be worthy of a #1 pick AND he plays a prime position (not to mention one the O's are thin at) he should get preference over the corner infielders, IMO.

There are so many top talents available, though, that I don't think I'll be disappointed no matter who the O's end up drafting.

I also don't think we should be concerned with how long it will take them to get to the majors. We need to get the top talent, no matter what his age is. Targeting players who can reach the majors sooner is a good way to retard the rebuilding process. Even among players that seem more "advanced" there will be some duds that won't turn out. When you start making mistakes while going for the sure thing and passing on a player who could have a higher ceiling, the overall condition of the organization will suffer more. We can't compete with just solid players. There needs to be a few exceptional players sprinkled in there as well, and you need to take chances if you're going to get many of them. With how low the Orioles have sunk, we need a good number of "special" players.

That doesn't mean that we take someone with a high ceiling but a low probability to reach it... we just cannot limit ourselves to college bats because our major league team needs help and we want to get the draft pick through the system faster in order to help the parent club. What good is it if they get there and contribute quickly, but aren't difference makers?

This argument would certainly work for Greg's fav - Eric Hosmer- but I'm using it for my fav - Beckham.

High School prospects scare me.I know there have been a lot of Superstars to come straight out of our High Schools. These guys are very special. But you have to look at all the ones that never make it. Does anyone have the percentages on this ? You know,,,College players that make the grade, compared to High Schoolers. Is takes a very focused young man to ride around the country with a bunch of 20 year olds, staying in temporary lodging, playing baseball, and not be led astray. It has to be very tough,

[Greg Pappas]

High School prospects scare me.I know there have been a lot of Superstars to come straight out of our High Schools. These guys are very special. But you have to look at all the ones that never make it. Does anyone have the percentages on this ? You know,,,College players that make the grade, compared to High Schoolers. Is takes a very focused young man to ride around the country with a bunch of 20 year olds, staying in temporary lodging, playing baseball, and not be led astray. It has to be very tough,

I started a thread a while back about that very thing... http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57155

[Mike B]

Order:

Alvarez
Smoak
Beckham

I like that order. Power bat at 1B. I know people are counting on Tex but that is probably not likely.

[Corolla35]

Selecting Smoak may not be the best choice, but its certainly not terrible. I know Beckham is a rare talent, but so is Smoak in different ways. I see a few positives should the O's select Smoak:
1. O's continute to stockpile talent for 2010.
2. May show the Orioles are atleast confident that Rowell or Snyder can stick at 3rd base.

Added Smoak's bat with Wieters, Jones, Markakis, Riemold and you've got the makings of a deadly lineup.

[napbow]

I like Beckham for the Orioles.

He is a 5 tool player at a plus position and every scouting report I've read says he should be able to stay at SS. So long as he doesn't regress badly his senior year, he would be my #1 priority. If he has the talent and production to be worthy of a #1 pick AND he plays a prime position (not to mention one the O's are thin at) he should get preference over the corner infielders, IMO.

There are so many top talents available, though, that I don't think I'll be disappointed no matter who the O's end up drafting.

I also don't think we should be concerned with how long it will take them to get to the majors. We need to get the top talent, no matter what his age is. Targeting players who can reach the majors sooner is a good way to retard the rebuilding process. Even among players that seem more "advanced" there will be some duds that won't turn out. When you start making mistakes while going for the sure thing and passing on a player who could have a higher ceiling, the overall condition of the organization will suffer more. We can't compete with just solid players. There needs to be a few exceptional players sprinkled in there as well, and you need to take chances if you're going to get many of them. With how low the Orioles have sunk, we need a good number of "special" players.

That doesn't mean that we take someone with a high ceiling but a low probability to reach it... we just cannot limit ourselves to college bats because our major league team needs help and we want to get the draft pick through the system faster in order to help the parent club. What good is it if they get there and contribute quickly, but aren't difference makers?

This argument would certainly work for Greg's fav - Eric Hosmer- but I'm using it for my fav - Beckham.

I don't see us limiting ourselves with the college bats at the #4 spot. Actually I see us taking a smart approach by selecting someone who has a very high percentage change of being an impact ball player or "difference maker", similar to CW.

[rhall]

I don't see us limiting ourselves with the college bats at the #4 spot. Actually I see us taking a smart approach by selecting someone who has a very high percentage change of being an impact ball player or "difference maker", similar to CW.

I don't necessarily think the Orioles will be limiting themselves with just college bats. I was speaking more to the OH community. From reading a lot of the posts in here on the draft, I get the feeling that many people are too influenced by the idea of our 1st round draft pick reaching the majors at the same time as Wieters. I don't think that should come into the equation at all. You never know what will happen. Just pick who you think will be the best player when they reach the major leagues, whenever that may be.

Who do you mean by CW?

[bluehens45]

Here is another scenario, lets say we land a blocked SS such as Hu, Lillibridge, or Arias. Then Hosmer, Smoak, and Alvarez are off the board. Who do we pick then? Do we take Beckham? Or do we go Pitcher.

[bluehens45]

Who besides Pedro Alvarez, Justin Smoak, Tim Beckham, Eric Hosmer, Brian Matusz, Aaron Crow, Yonder Alsono, and Harold Martinez would you pick? I mean say we are picking at #10 and all these players are off the board. Who would you pick? I would go with either Gerrit Cole,Tim Melville, or Aaron Hicks.

[napbow]

Here is another scenario, lets say we land a blocked SS such as Hu, Lillibridge, or Arias. Then Hosmer, Smoak, and Alvarez are off the board. Who do we pick then? Do we take Beckham? Or do we go Pitcher.

CW = Wieters (should have been M)

I truly hope we are able to trade for a SS. I think we could get Hu later in the year with our relief pitching/Millar.

I still would draft the best available player even if that means Beckham.

[DennisTheOsFan]

I'm ecstatic that one of these guys will probably be ours.

Alvarez
Smoak
Beckham
Hosmer
Matusz

[Greg Pappas]

Here is another scenario, lets say we land a blocked SS such as Hu, Lillibridge, or Arias. Then Hosmer, Smoak, and Alvarez are off the board. Who do we pick then? Do we take Beckham? Or do we go Pitcher.

You take Beckham. Not even close for me. :)

[DennisTheOsFan]

Yes, if Beckham is the best player available, you take him, regardless if we trade for a blocked SS.

We don't know how long it will take for Beckham to make it to the Big League, so in the meantime, we can enjoy whoever holds down the spot.

[Bosibus]

Hosmer gives me visions of Will Clark, but with better power. That's an amazing combo.


AKA...The Man...Had a man-crush on him...hence, the avi. :D

[Lt Melmo]

This order:

Alvarez
Beckham
Matusz/Crow, whichever one is better this year.
Smoak

There's nothing wrong with drafting a college pitcher, even though the talent is lopsided in our system. Given AM's philosophy of "develop pitchers, sign bats," it wouldn't surprise me.

I like Smoak but not as a full-time DH, which is where he could easily be headed in Baltimore.

[Greg Pappas]

This order:

Alvarez
Beckham
Matusz/Crow, whichever one is better this year.
Smoak

There's nothing wrong with drafting a college pitcher, even though the talent is lopsided in our system. Given AM's philosophy of "develop pitchers, sign bats," it wouldn't surprise me.

I like Smoak but not as a full-time DH, which is where he could easily be headed in Baltimore.

Out of curiosity... what gives you the feeling he'll be a full-time DH if drafted? Who would play 1B over him? Just my view on this, but Smoak will man 1B for any team that drafts him, once he's ready. His defense is too good to be relegated to DH.

[rhall]

Who besides Pedro Alvarez, Justin Smoak, Tim Beckham, Eric Hosmer, Brian Matusz, Aaron Crow, Yonder Alsono, and Harold Martinez would you pick? I mean say we are picking at #10 and all these players are off the board. Who would you pick? I would go with either Gerrit Cole,Tim Melville, or Aaron Hicks.

In that scenario I'd take Melville in a heart beat. He could be the best arm in the draft when all is said and done. Hicks could be a possibility, though. Cole scares me a little. I've heard that he's too concerned with throwing hard and has a lot of effort in his delivery.

[Greg Pappas]

Who besides Pedro Alvarez, Justin Smoak, Tim Beckham, Eric Hosmer, Brian Matusz, Aaron Crow, Yonder Alsono, and Harold Martinez would you pick? I mean say we are picking at #10 and all these players are off the board. Who would you pick? I would go with either Gerrit Cole,Tim Melville, or Aaron Hicks.

As of this moment...
Kyle Skipworth
Aaron Hicks
Shooter Hunt

[bluehens45]

What players fall hard because of Demands or injuries? Such as Porcello and Brackman, although Brackman i think had a injury. Im hoping we find 1st round talent later in the draft and are not scared to pay them. Hopefully Arrieta is a good sign. Seems like there are always some very good players still around later because of injuries or contract demands. I think this draft could really be a tell all to the future of our team and hopefully we take some risks. I think with a really good draft we could shoot up the rankings and be right there with the Rays.

[Lt Melmo]

Out of curiosity... what gives you the feeling he'll be a full-time DH if drafted? Who would play 1B over him? Just my view on this, but Smoak will man 1B for any team that drafts him, once he's ready. His defense is too good to be relegated to DH.
I'm an idealist who believes very strongly that Tex will sign here. He ain't chopped liver at first neither.

[Greg Pappas]

I'm an idealist who believes very strongly that Tex will sign here. He ain't chopped liver at first neither.

Fair enough.

[Greg Pappas]

What players fall hard because of Demands or injuries? Such as Porcello and Brackman, although Brackman i think had a injury. Im hoping we find 1st round talent later in the draft and are not scared to pay them. Hopefully Arrieta is a good sign. Seems like there are always some very good players still around later because of injuries or contract demands. I think this draft could really be a tell all to the future of our team and hopefully we take some risks. I think with a really good draft we could shoot up the rankings and be right there with the Rays.

(Yoda-like reply) At this juncture difficult to guess it is. :D

[allstar1579]

It's still a bit far out to really tell, things change so much between March and June, as of right now, I go with Alvarez.

This isn't based on our entire organization, or building for the future, this is based on where our first wave of prospects is estimated to hit the Majors. With Weiters, Markakis, Jones, and Reimold slated to be there by 2009-ish, we could use another bat to pair with that nucleus. If they are planning on adding a big bat in his early prime to remain nameless in FA next year, maybe they look to the future and work on the next wave of prospects to come through and take Beckham.

Building a successful franchise, like Oakland, isn't clearing out the shed to restock your team once with young talent, by the time they are ready and producing enough to compete, they are hitting arbitration and free agency like the Bedard situation, and we have to prepare for them to leave. You have to start drafting for a new wave of prospects to replace the ones you currently have so that you aren't in a situation like we are now getting quantity over quality when you need to trade someone.