A new twist to the Mock Draft...

[Greg Pappas]

... okay, let's all assume that Alvarez, Beckham and Smoak are the first three chosen in the Draft. I realize there is a chance one may fall... but for fun, let's assume they are all gone.

So, let's do this... Give who you think the O's will take (A), and then who you would take (B) if you were making the call.

A. Matusz
B. Hosmer (Although Harold Martinez may jump into the equation)

[Battleship]

A. Matusz. I don't think Jordan would pass on him without Smoak there.

B. I'd probably go with Hosmer unless Angelos says you only have so much money for draft and IFAs. Then I'd have to weigh everything. For example is Matusz and say Yorman Rodriguez or someone like SS Casey Kelly in the second round worth more to me than Hosmer and a lesser second rounder or IFA?

[McNulty]

Matusz has looked good after posting an egg in his first start, but everything I've read about Hosmer is that he is Smoak except 4 years younger.

So I think its Hosmer for both.

[Hutman]

If you look at the organizational needs pitching is ranked in the top 3, so we have drafted and acquired a nice stable of quality arms. So while Matusz is a very good pitcher, he is not a sure fire # 1 ace (he projects more as a 2 or a 3).

We are certainly lacking in power prospects and middle infielders. So while my top 3 are Smoak, Alvarez, and Beckham. If for some reason all 3 are gone, I'd say that we have to look very seriously at Hosmer. Again it all goes back to how Jordan ranks these guys. Any way we look at it, were going to get a quality prospect.

[Battleship]

So while Matusz is a very good pitcher, he is not a sure fire # 1 ace (he projects more as a 2 or a 3).

I think Matusz would be the O's number one pitching prospect by a huge margin. I can't even think who'd be second... I guess Tillman. No one I'm aware of is even all that close. Unless Cabrera and Liz start commanding their pitches.

[napbow]

I think Matusz would be the O's number one pitching prospect by a huge margin. I can't even think who'd be second... I guess Tillman. No one I'm aware of is even all that close. Unless Cabrera and Liz start commanding their pitches.

Do you really think there is that much of a difference between Tillman and Matusz? The reason I ask is because Tillman was getting great reviews from spring training this year and is very well thought of by the organization.

I'd go with Matusz anyway.

[Hutman]

2. Brian Matusz {College LHSP} (21). Matusz (pronounced MAT-is) is one of those pitchers that just has ML'er written all over him. The University of San Diego junior stands 6' 4 and weighs in at 195 lbs. He employs a sweet combination of crafty lefty with a low nineties fastball and consistantly throws three quality pitches for strikes. He will pitch from 87-92 and can hit 94 when necessary, but it's his assortment of high-grade secondary stuff that has scouts excited about his future. His curve and change are both outstanding, and his athleticism and easy arm action plants him squarely in line to be a high first-round selection.

Because he doesn't necessarily profile as a true #1 ace, Matusz doesn't get the drools from the scouts as last year's #1 David Price had, but in time Matusz may prove to be just as good.

Greg's Grade (1-100) = 88

I'm basing my opinion on what I read from Greg (above) and what I've read in Baseball America. He's a great prospect, I'm not saying that. Just saying he doesn't project as a #1 starter.

[wse120372]

Hosmer. Combination of Tnstaapp and the write-ups on Hosmer make me lust after his bat.

[mapierce]

Matusz - he's a college player which means he's more polished and more likely to reach his potential. Plus, this would allow us to trade some other arms for some hitting.

In a perfect world, we would draft Alvarez or Smoak to coincide with Weiter's arrival to the bigs.

No matter who we get, Smoak, Alvarez, Matusz, Beckham, Hosmer we should be getting a really good prospect. And we should probably have another top 5 pick the next year as well.

I hope we spend some good money after our 1st pick as well to pick up some more top shelf talent that may fall due to demands. It should be interesting to see what Jordan can do this year with a full compliment of picks.

[Hutman]

For some reason I'm not all that jazzed about Matusz he's good, but I'd much rather spend a top 5 pick on an all-star calliber bat. Smoak, Beckham or Alvarez are the guys who i like.

[hoosiers]

I hope we spend some good money after our 1st pick as well to pick up some more top shelf talent that may fall due to demands. It should be interesting to see what Jordan can do this year with a full compliment of picks.

Well, our second round pick is within the top 50 or so.

I'm sure we'll spend $ above slot somewhere in the draft, the questions to me is how much and how often. Will we go $500k above slot for two or three guys like the NYY and BoSox? That would be nice.

Nice question, Greg. I'll go Hosmer/Hosmer.

I think Hosmer will move quickly in the minors. I doubt Smoak beats him by more than two years.

[bluehens45]

A. Brian Matusz, you can never have enough pitching.

B. Eric Hosmer, I think the kids going to be a stud.

C. Harold Martinez, He is starting to grow on me.

D. Gerritt Cole, He another one that is growing on me.

[Battleship]

A lefty that throws low 90s and has two plus secondary pitches projects as a number 1 starter.

Yes I think he's that much better than Tillman. If Tillman were as good as Matusz, he wouldn't have been traded for Bedard. Pitchers with three plus pitches are hard to find.


2. Brian Matusz {College LHSP} (21). Matusz (pronounced MAT-is) is one of those pitchers that just has ML'er written all over him. The University of San Diego junior stands 6' 4 and weighs in at 195 lbs. He employs a sweet combination of crafty lefty with a low nineties fastball and consistantly throws three quality pitches for strikes. He will pitch from 87-92 and can hit 94 when necessary, but it's his assortment of high-grade secondary stuff that has scouts excited about his future. His curve and change are both outstanding, and his athleticism and easy arm action plants him squarely in line to be a high first-round selection.

Because he doesn't necessarily profile as a true #1 ace, Matusz doesn't get the drools from the scouts as last year's #1 David Price had, but in time Matusz may prove to be just as good.

Greg's Grade (1-100) = 88

I'm basing my opinion on what I read from Greg (above) and what I've read in Baseball America. He's a great prospect, I'm not saying that. Just saying he doesn't project as a #1 starter.

[PlumOriole]

Great question. I would say Hosmer but I really will put my trust in Jordan and whatever he chooses will be fine with me. Hopefully, one of the other three will be there.

I know we're getting a topshelf player at 4. I'd like to hear about some players we should look at in later rounds.

[clarence]

Does Matusz seem a lot like Loewen? Not sure I would take Loewen at #4.

Is Crow out of the equation?

I want a bat but am scared of another high schooler after Rowell and Snyder.

Just give me Alvarez or Smoak, please.

Sorry to not answer the question.

[wayne25]

Hosmer; Hosmer: At #4 I'd want a pitcher that scouts are seriously DROOLING over. Matusz looks like a # 2. He could be a # 1, but right now I want a Kerry Wood/ Josh Beckett type, w/o the injuries of course.

[Battleship]

Does Matusz seem a lot like Loewen? Not sure I would take Loewen at #4.

Is Crow out of the equation?

I want a bat but am scared of another high schooler after Rowell and Snyder.

Just give me Alvarez or Smoak, please.

Sorry to not answer the question.

Loewen was a HS pitcher and far less proven.

I would think Crow would be strongly considered if he's there.

I can understand you being scared. The younger the player, the greater the risk. However, also the greater the upside. It's a tough choice.

[justD]

I'd like to hear about some players we should look at in later rounds.

I second that. This is where I believe Jordan shines, finding gems in the later rounds.

[clarence]

Just curious, but what gems in the past has Jordan found in the later rounds? I know Arrietta seems like a steal at this point, but who else is really high on the radar?

[odogs101]

Just curious, but what gems in the past has Jordan found in the later rounds? I know Arrietta seems like a steal at this point, but who else is really high on the radar?

For me, a late round steal doesn't have to be a ML star. In the late rounds if you get a guy who projects to even make it to the bigs is a steal. With that in mind I would consider these guys either steals or potential steals.

2005
Chorye Spoone 8th rd
Paco Figueroa 9th
David Hernandez 16th
Miguel Abreu 28th
Chris Vinyard 38th Draft and follow


2006
Brandon Tripp 12th

2007
Tyler Kolodny 16th
John Marrioti 18th
Justin Moore 26th
Kraig Binick 27th

If we look back 5 years from now a lot of these guys will not be viewed as steals. But there also may be a few that may not be viewed as such now but will be then.

[Jammer7]

Great question....and we agree again Greg.

I think there may be a nudge from above JJ to take a guy like Matusz if Beckham, Alvarez and Smoak are gone. If Snyder and Rowell don't start producing big numbers, I could see PA getting a little down on HS bats. AM likes his young pitching when all else is equal and we don't have many LHSP's in the system that are prospects (Olson, Patton, Britton, ???). Matusz is mentally tough, mechanically sound, has a lights out changeup and very solid CB and he projects to gain more velocity.

For me, I'd take Hosmer. He's the kind of bomber we need to mash in the middle of our lineup in three years. He may be the best bat in our system at this time next year...he's that good by all accounts. He has a great approach and he has significant experience with wood bats. He has pro makeup and he's very mature for his age.

[rhall]

Great question....and we agree again Greg.

I think there may be a nudge from above JJ to take a guy like Matusz if Beckham, Alvarez and Smoak are gone. If Snyder and Rowell don't start producing big numbers, I could see PA getting a little down on HS bats. AM likes his young pitching when all else is equal and we don't have many LHSP's in the system that are prospects (Olson, Patton, Britton, ???). Matusz is mentally tough, mechanically sound, has a lights out changeup and very solid CB and he projects to gain more velocity.

For me, I'd take Hosmer. He's the kind of bomber we need to mash in the middle of our lineup in three years. He may be the best bat in our system at this time next year...he's that good by all accounts. He has a great approach and he has significant experience with wood bats. He has pro makeup and he's very mature for his age.

Don't forget about Tony Butler :) He's huge (all arms & legs) though and has a somewhat jerky delivery that he has a hard time repeating late in games, resulting in him not always maintaining his plus stuff late in games. Unless he improves in that regard he could move to the bullpen. Maybe he will, just like our own homegrown Radhames Liz :D

If Alvarez, Smoak and Beckham were taken top 3, I'd be very torn with the 4th pick. Hosmer and Matusz are both very tempting. It's times like this that I don't envy Jordan... who am I kidding? I always envy Jordan.

[Jammer7]

Don't forget about Tony Butler :) He's huge (all arms & legs) though and has a somewhat jerky delivery that he has a hard time repeating late in games, resulting in him not always maintaining his plus stuff late in games. Unless he improves in that regard he could move to the bullpen. Maybe he will, just like our own homegrown Radhames Liz :D


I knew I was forgetting someone....total brainfart. :o

[Greg Pappas]

Great question....and we agree again Greg.

I think there may be a nudge from above JJ to take a guy like Matusz if Beckham, Alvarez and Smoak are gone. If Snyder and Rowell don't start producing big numbers, I could see PA getting a little down on HS bats. AM likes his young pitching when all else is equal and we don't have many LHSP's in the system that are prospects (Olson, Patton, Britton, ???). Matusz is mentally tough, mechanically sound, has a lights out changeup and very solid CB and he projects to gain more velocity.

For me, I'd take Hosmer. He's the kind of bomber we need to mash in the middle of our lineup in three years. He may be the best bat in our system at this time next year...he's that good by all accounts. He has a great approach and he has significant experience with wood bats. He has pro makeup and he's very mature for his age.

Good post... Matusz will likely be our pick if Alvarez, Smoak and Beckham are gone. And I'll be happy to get him, albeit watching Hosmer's career quite closely and with an envious eye at that.

Harold Martinez is the one player that could jump way up the board into the top few spots if he shows a big year at the plate. Be aware of him. :)

[OSfanfromCT]

Good post... Matusz will likely be our pick if Alvarez, Smoak and Beckham are gone. And I'll be happy to get him, albeit watching Hosmer's career quite closely and with an envious eye at that.

Harold Martinez is the one player that could jump way up the board into the top few spots if he shows a big year at the plate. Be aware of him. :)

With all of your pitching depth and with all the question marks that surround pitching prospects, I can't see any reason to not take a bat with this pick. Maybe I'm being short-sighted and the we should just take the best available player, but we seriously lack enough impact bats, and Hosmer would help to change that.

[Greg Pappas]

With all of your pitching depth and with all the question marks that surround pitching prospects, I can't see any reason to not take a bat with this pick. Maybe I'm being short-sighted and the we should just take the best available player, but we seriously lack enough impact bats, and Hosmer would help to change that.

We agree. However, MacPhail's stated philosophy of acquiring pitching talent as the #1 priority in the building/rebuilding of the franchise leads myself and others to believe it's very possible he'll ask Jordan to go with the top pitcher available. I'll start a new thread about that actually. :)

[Battleship]

Another player to watch in Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham. Showing all five tools very well so far. He's really opening eyes and could go top 5 if he keeps it up. He's the one guy I'm aware of that's really moving up the draft.

[bluehens45]

Another player to watch in Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham. Showing all five tools very well so far. He's really opening eyes and could go top 5 if he keeps it up. He's the one guy I'm aware of that's really moving up the draft.

Good post Battleship. I checked him and he playing great ball right now. Before the season started where was he projected? around 15? Who are players that because of demands may fall into the second? I know last year was Brackman and i think the year before Porcello.

[Greg Pappas]

Another player to watch in Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham. Showing all five tools very well so far. He's really opening eyes and could go top 5 if he keeps it up. He's the one guy I'm aware of that's really moving up the draft.

Most draft sites have him as a latter first rounder entering the year, but he could move into the top half certainly. I have him at #25 currently (http://www.mlb-draft.com/), but may have to move him up. :)

[allstar1579]

A little too early to tell still, players are just starting to rise and fall...like Alvarez and his injury will most likely dull his star appeal JUST a bit going into the draft...

That being said, as of today, the O's take Matusz, and I would take him as well. Hosmer has some potential, but last I read was being viewed in the 9-13 range, a bit of a stretch for #4, no matter what our needs are.

There are 2 scenarios to watch this year....a) who drops through the top 3, and b) who is rated in the mid-late 1st round right now and has a great year before the draft. Between these 2, I think there is no doubt that Matusz is the better chip, and as of now the top pitching prospect in the draft, but who knows how Hosmer will develop between now and June as well.

Fun speculation though Greg, I like it.

[Hutman]

Its a very interesting debate, but I think that KC right before us will take one of the Missouri pitchers either Crow or Melville. As much as we know that McPhail loves pitching I think the top 4 position prospects are just too tempting to pass up in an organization sorely lacking in plus hitters. Also, our lack of middle infield depth makes Beckham very tempting if he lasts.

I really think that its going to be Alvarez or Smoak at #4. :D

[Stotle]

Another player to watch in Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham. Showing all five tools very well so far. He's really opening eyes and could go top 5 if he keeps it up. He's the one guy I'm aware of that's really moving up the draft.

I don't see any way Beckham jumps into the top 5. If he can maintain this insane pace in conference play, he could go 10-15 -- otherwise I think he sits comfortably in the second half of the first round.