Early Predictions for the 'Top 4' Picks

[Greg Pappas]

Early prediction time :) > What do you imagine will happen with the first 4 choices at the draft this June? Please don't list multiple names and 'what if' scenarios... and thank you for your participation. :D

1> Tampa Bay - Aaron Crow (RHSP)
2> Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez (3B)
3> Kansas City - Tim Beckham (SS)
4> Baltimore - Brian Matusz (LHSP)

[Greg Pappas]

This thread is for everyone to list their best guess at the top 4 picks... not just mine. ;)

[rhall]

I had a similar prediction with O's getting Matusz as well... but today I switched my draft order around a little.

1. Tampa Bay - Brian Matusz LHSP
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez 3B
3. Kansas City - Aaron Crow RHSP
4. Baltimore - Tim Beckham SS

[WebLink21]

I don't know if this is just wishful thinking, but I have a feeling that Alvarez is going to fall to us the same way Weiters did last year.

1. Tampa Bay - Aaron Crow SP
2. Pittsburgh - Tim Beckham SS
3. Kansas City - Brian Matusz SP
4. Baltimore - Pedro Alvarez 3B

[Tank]

1. Tampa Bay - Aaron Crow, SP
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B
3. Kansas City - Tim Beckham, SS
4. Baltimore - Justin Smoak, 1B

[LookinUp]

Crow, Beckham, Hosmer, Alvarez

[WebLink21]

Crow, Beckham, Hosmer, Alvarez

I am glad that you picked Alvarez to slip too. I was expecting to get ripped for that. :D

[bluehens45]

1. Tampa Bay - Brian Matusz LHSP
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez 3B
3. Kansas City - Aaron Crow RHSP
4. Baltimore - Tim Beckham SS

or

1. Tampa Bay - Tim Beckham SS
2. Pittsburgh - Aaron Crow RHSP
3. Kansas City - Tim Melville SP
4. Baltimore - Pedro Alvarez 3B

Its really earily im hoping for one of Beckham, Crow, Alvarez, Matusz, Smoak, or Hosmer. Any of those 6 and im a happy man.

[LookinUp]

I am glad that you picked Alvarez to slip too. I was expecting to get ripped for that. :D

Given his injury, the ascendence of Crow and Matusz, his agent and the "next Derek Jeter," I think it's quite possible.

[Stotle]

1. Tampa Bay - Aaron Crow (RHSP)
2. Pittsburgh - Tim Beckham (SS)
3. Kansas City - Brian Matusz (LHSP)
4. Baltimore - Pedro Alvarez (3b)

[ChaosLex]

1. Tampa Bay - Aaron Crow
2. Pittsburgh - Brian Matusz
3. Kansas City - Pedro Alvarez
4. Baltimore - Tim Beckham

[LookinUp]

1. Tampa Bay - Aaron Crow
2. Pittsburgh - Brian Matusz
3. Kansas City - Pedro Alvarez
4. Baltimore - Tim Beckham


So, my impression is that these 4 have separated themselves from the rest of the draft. Hosmer and Smoak would be the next tier, with a potential addition of one of the hot catchers.

I'd love to have Alvarez, but I don't think we'll be disappointed almost no matter what happens above us in this draft (barring injury of course).

[odogs101]

1. Tampa Bay - Aaron Crow
2. Pittsburgh - Tim Beckham
3. Kansas City -Brian Matusz
4. Baltimore - Pedro Alvarez

This is what I think will happen but here is my curveball possibilty.

1. Tampa Bay - Kyle Skipworth
2. Pittsburgh - Aaron Crow
3. Kansas City - Tim Melville
4. Baltimore - Our choise of Alvarez/Beckham/Matusz and the decade of debate before and after on which was the right one :)

I would be happy with any of the top four, although I am leaning towards a bat.

[ChaosLex]

So, my impression is that these 4 have separated themselves from the rest of the draft. Hosmer and Smoak would be the next tier, with a potential addition of one of the hot catchers.

I'd love to have Alvarez, but I don't think we'll be disappointed almost no matter what happens above us in this draft (barring injury of course).

I'll be a little disappointed if we draft Matusz. I mean, he's a fine pitcher, but he doesn't have the ace potential of David Price (last year's #1 draft pick) or Aaron Crow.

[Stotle]

This is what I think will happen but here is my curveball possibilty.

1. Tampa Bay - Kyle Skipworth
2. Pittsburgh - Aaron Crow
3. Kansas City - Tim Melville
4. Baltimore - Our choise of Alvarez/Beckham/Matusz and the decade of debate before and after on which was the right one :)

I would be happy with any of the top four, although I am leaning towards a bat.

I would bet, as of today, Buster Posey is the first catcher off the board. He's is closer to fully-baked, and is raking at FSU since switching to C from SS.

This year, his line sits at:
.458/.554/.833, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 120 AB, 10 SO, 25 BB

in a very solid ACC.

Not likely relevant to the draft, but he has been impressive as the closer, as well:

0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP, .119 BAA, 0-0, 4 S, 5 IP, 5 SO, 2 H, 0 BB

I've been out of pocket as of late due to family matters. I'll try and post some scouting reports on various college kids (Posey, Murphy, Beckham, Thompson, Crawford, and a handful more) this weekend. I've gone through a bunch of tape.

I'll say that Posey looks like Top 10 material to me (sizeable jump from where I had him to start the season), Beckham looks like he'll be drafted around 8-15 depending on team need but is my bet for pro likely to disappoint based on his loopy swing (I posted details on another thread), Murphy and Thompson will both go a little later than they should, and I like them as bargains for the slot they end up at (based on where we stand today).