Poll: IF Alvarez, T. Beckham & Crow are gone...

[Greg Pappas]

who would you take at this juncture?

*Voting is for public viewing.
*One choice per poster.

[ChaosLex]

who would you take at this juncture?

*Voting is for public viewing.
*One choice per poster.

You must be reading my mind, Greg. I was going to post a similar poll during my afternoon break. :D

[ChaosLex]

By the way, I'm really torn between Matusz, Smoak and G. Beckham. I chose Beckham in the end, just because of the position he plays (SS) and the fact he's absolutely raking this year.

[Greg Pappas]

You must be reading my mind, Greg. I was going to post a similar poll during my afternoon break. :D

Yeah, seemed the right time. =) I just wish I could get the 'iif' changed to 'if'. lol

[baltimoriole]

I hope Alverez falls to us, although I doubt he will. The O's would be in great shape to have two elite positional prospects. Wieters have been absolutely amazing and to have another player of his caliber in the system is exactly what this team needs.

That said, if both of Beckham and Alverez are gone you'd have to go with Gordon Beckham. He'll make it to the majors quickly and has very impressive numbers this season. As long as he projects as a SS in the bigs I'd pick him.

[Stotle]

I think this vote shows a little too much reliance on stats and position. I completely understand excitement around a SS that is dominating in the SEC. I'm just not convinced the kid is a top-5 talent, and as I've blathered on about before, his swing is not as projectable as a half-a-dozen other players in the draft. His numbers are fun, but as a baseball player I don't think he tops Posey/Matusz/Hosmer. I'd put him right at the Smoak/Alonso level -- 7-10 overall, and I don't want to take a lesser talent because he plays SS.

I'm not convinced Flaherty will be around, but I like Greg's idea of targeting a MI somewhere in rounds 2-5. Drafting Beckham at 4 puts unfair expectations on him, and I would be disappointed to have a capable 18 HR/.295 SS in three years rather than a .315/25 HR catcher/potential 30-35 HR 1b or front-end starter.

As always, just my thoughts.

[Stotle]

I hope Alverez falls to us, although I doubt he will. The O's would be in great shape to have two elite positional prospects. Wieters have been absolutely amazing and to have another player of his caliber in the system is exactly what this team needs.

That said, if both of Beckham and Alverez are gone you'd have to go with Gordon Beckham. He'll make it to the majors quickly and has very impressive numbers this season. As long as he projects as a SS in the bigs I'd pick him.

I don't think Beckham makes it to the majors quickly. Right now, I'd say 3 full seasons in the minors (HiA/AA, AA/AAA, AAA after struggling).

[napbow]

I. I'd put him right at the Smoak/Alonso level -- 7-10 overall, and I don't want to take a lesser talent because he plays SS.

Stotle, do you feel Smoak is unworthy of the 4 pick?

[Stotle]

Stotle, do you feel Smoak is unworthy of the 4 pick?

As of today, yes. I think this year, and his time with Team USA, raise enough issues that I'd prefer Alvarez/T-Bex/Posey/Crow/Matusz/Hosmer all over Smoak. Keeping in mind, of course, there is still a couple weeks of conference play and the college world series to go.

[mtairydan]

As of today, yes. I think this year, and his time with Team USA, raise enough issues that I'd prefer Alvarez/T-Bex/Posey/Crow/Matusz/Hosmer all over Smoak. Keeping in mind, of course, there is still a couple weeks of conference play and the college world series to go. I too would select Posey who was the starting SS for FLA State before he moved behind the plate.

[wickedwitch]

Drafting Posey to play a position he hasn't played all year seems unwise to me. I'd need to see a lot more evidence that he can play well at SS and has a good chance of sticking there. So if anyone has information on that I'd love to see it, but until then, my preference would be against drafting him.

[Stotle]

I have no problem drafting him and playing him at C if he's the best talent on the board at the time.

[wayne25]

Would be happy with Posey for alot of reasons. Don't think the idea would be to put him at ss. We could develop his catching skills, while allowing him to become a super util guy on the days he doesn't catch. In my mind this does not conflict with Weiters at all. First, the value Posey would have would be great if we traded him. The value of have two great bats, who both can catch would be great for the O's. If he is judged the best talent, then take him and just enjoy the fact that we have another great talent.

[Hutman]

Sorry, I had to vote for Hosmer. It really seems like he is the best HS bat coming out of this draft and everything I have read about him is that he may be the best bat in this draft High School or College.

[Stotle]

Sorry, I had to vote for Hosmer. It really seems like he is the best HS bat coming out of this draft and everything I have read about him is that he may be the best bat in this draft High School or College.

Hosmer was a close second for me. Greg nailed it when he rated him one overall at the start of the season.

[TJ Wrangler]

I'd have to go with Matusz here, as top of the rotation lefties aren't exactly easy to find. Hosmer's potential is tempting at number 4.

[hoosiers]

If we choose between Mat and Hos at four, I'm fine with whatever JJ decides. Hosmer sounds like a special bat, but if we feel the pitcher is a 2 or better, I'm glad I'm not making the decision.

[Greg Pappas]

I'd have to go with Matusz here, as top of the rotation lefties aren't exactly easy to find. Hosmer's potential is tempting at number 4.

I'm repeating myself here, but regardless of who we take it seems we're going to be very happy. So many good players to choose from.

Look at the results and there is a four way run for a favorite, among Smoak, Matusz, Hosmer, and GBeckham... just goes to show that there is plenty to choose from. :)

[ChaosLex]

I'm repeating myself here, but regardless of who we take it seems we're going to be very happy. So many good players to choose from.

Look at the results and there is a four way run for a favorite, among Smoak, Matusz, Hosmer, and GBeckham... just goes to show that there is plenty to choose from. :)

Take it for what it's worth, but this little snippet was posted on the MLBTradeRumors forums.

I know this is about the Royals, but I still wanted to point out that the Bucs have been linked to Matusz for quite sometime now. It's rumored that his advisers have already told Pitsburgh management that he would sign for slot unlike most of the top guys and we all know that the Bucs aren't going to go over slot for anyone.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/04/royals-consider.html#comments

Thoughts?

[wickedwitch]

Take it for what it's worth, but this little snippet was posted on the MLBTradeRumors forums.

I know this is about the Royals, but I still wanted to point out that the Bucs have been linked to Matusz for quite sometime now. It's rumored that his advisers have already told Pitsburgh management that he would sign for slot unlike most of the top guys and we all know that the Bucs aren't going to go over slot for anyone.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/04/royals-consider.html#comments

Thoughts?Considering that the new Pittsburgh management has implied that it would absolutely be willing to go over slot, I'd take this with a grain of salt.

[Mackus]

Smoak slightly before Hosmer.

My opinion is based solely on scouting reports, other rankings, and gut feeling though, so I don't know how much credence anybody should give it. As long as its a hitter, I'll be supportive of whomever Jordan takes.

[Wingman]

I'm repeating myself here, but regardless of who we take it seems we're going to be very happy. So many good players to choose from.

Look at the results and there is a four way run for a favorite, among Smoak, Matusz, Hosmer, and GBeckham... just goes to show that there is plenty to choose from. :)

Not to be negative, but I'd REALLY be happy if we got Alvarez, Bechham or Crow... That's what I'm hoping for!!!

[wayne25]

Smoak slightly before Hosmer.

My opinion is based solely on scouting reports, other rankings, and gut feeling though, so I don't know how much credence anybody should give it. As long as its a hitter, I'll be supportive of whomever Jordan takes.

Agreed, has to be a hitter or I will be unhappy. (thats not a good thing) Also want no part of G. Beckham. TTooo much risk for a guy who was not considered top 10 material a month ago.

[TJ Wrangler]

Take it for what it's worth, but this little snippet was posted on the MLBTradeRumors forums.

I know this is about the Royals, but I still wanted to point out that the Bucs have been linked to Matusz for quite sometime now. It's rumored that his advisers have already told Pitsburgh management that he would sign for slot unlike most of the top guys and we all know that the Bucs aren't going to go over slot for anyone.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/04/royals-consider.html#comments

Thoughts?

If this is true, it will greatly increase our chances of getting Alvarez.

[RZNJ]

Another interesting question might be, what if Alvarez, T. Beckham, and Hosmer are all gone. The best talent at the #4 spot would almost definitely be a pitcher. Would you still go with Smoak or G. Beckham just to get a positional player? This question is pointed more towards people who insist on a positional player but I would hope that everyone would put in their two cents.

[Mackus]

Another interesting question might be, what if Alvarez, T. Beckham, and Hosmer are all gone. The best talent at the #4 spot would almost definitely be a pitcher. Would you still go with Smoak or G. Beckham just to get a positional player? This question is pointed more towards people who insist on a positional player but I would hope that everyone would put in their two cents.Smoak v Crow is a tough choice, and I wouldn't have a problem if they go with Crow. I'm not terribly high on Matusz unless he's a near lock to be a #2. If you're using a #4 overall pick, you should be getting someone with a very good chance of being a #1 starter, and all I hear about Matusz is #2 starter.

[Stotle]

Smoak v Crow is a tough choice, and I wouldn't have a problem if they go with Crow. I'm not terribly high on Matusz unless he's a near lock to be a #2. If you're using a #4 overall pick, you should be getting someone with a very good chance of being a #1 starter, and all I hear about Matusz is #2 starter.

I like Matusz. Plus velocity, plus secondary stuff, and normally plus command. I'm not convinced Crow is ahead of Matusz, and unless you want to go after a higher upside HS arm that is less developed (Melville/Cole) I think Matusz is the better bet.

PS - My decision would be between Posey/Matusz

[PlumOriole]

I votes Matusz but I'm really hoping for Alvarez. Either way Alvarez/Matusz, I'd still trade for a young blocked SS in July and go hard for Tex in the fall. After Matusz I'd probably go for Hosmer.

[markpolis]

Nice article in the Sun about how the Ravens go about their draft prep.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/football/bal-sp.ravens20apr20,0,7889858.story

I agree with how DeCosta prepares. For the Orioles and the #4 pick it should be quite simple. Rank your top four picks and take the highest one available with the 4th pick.

I'd rank them as follows:

1 - Alvarez
2 - Tim Beckham
3 - Crow
4 - Matusz

I'm praying that Alvarez or Beckham fall to us at #4. There is an outside chance that Alvarez (due to signability issues) drops to us. I don't see how Beckham will fall to us.

Also, I really don't think you can draft players like Gordon Beckham with the 4th pick based solely on need.

[Greg Pappas]

I'd have to go with Matusz here, as top of the rotation lefties aren't exactly easy to find. Hosmer's potential is tempting at number 4.


Nice article in the Sun about how the Ravens go about their draft prep.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/football/bal-sp.ravens20apr20,0,7889858.story

I agree with how DeCosta prepares. For the Orioles and the #4 pick it should be quite simple. Rank your top four picks and take the highest one available with the 4th pick.

I'd rank them as follows:

1 - Alvarez
2 - Tim Beckham
3 - Crow
4 - Matusz

I'm praying that Alvarez or Beckham fall to us at #4. There is an outside chance that Alvarez (due to signability issues) drops to us. I don't see how Beckham will fall to us.

Also, I really don't think you can draft players like Gordon Beckham with the 4th pick based solely on need.

Agreed. Take the best player available, always. How the O's rank the top four would be very interesting to know. :)

[Greg Pappas]

Another interesting question might be, what if Alvarez, T. Beckham, and Hosmer are all gone. The best talent at the #4 spot would almost definitely be a pitcher. Would you still go with Smoak or G. Beckham just to get a positional player? This question is pointed more towards people who insist on a positional player but I would hope that everyone would put in their two cents.

I like both Crow and Matusz and would be pleased to draft either of them.

My personal draft board will be out later today at my (http://www.mlb-draft.com) draft site, but the top four should look something like this...

1. Eric Hosmer
2. Tim Beckham
3. Pedro Alvarez
4. Brian Matusz/Aaron Crow (dead heat)

[Greg Pappas]

Another interesting thought is this...

List the players that you'd (at this point in time) be pleased to read that the Orioles drafted with our first round choice this June.

My list.

Hosmer, T.Beckham, Alvarez, Crow, Matusz, Smoak, Posey

Your list?

[Stotle]

Another interesting thought is this...

List the players that you'd (at this point in time) be pleased to read that the Orioles drafted with our first round choice this June.

My list.

Hosmer, T.Beckham, Alvarez, Crow, Matusz, Smoak, Posey

Your list?

Alvarez, T-Bex, Matusz, Crow, Posey

I add Hosmer to the list with the note that the signing bonus is an issue for me. I think $7mio for a HS 1b, regardless of bat, is silly. If BAL can get him and give him $4mio or so, I gladly put him in the above group.

[markpolis]

Alvarez, T-Bex, Matusz, Crow, Posey

I add Hosmer to the list with the note that the signing bonus is an issue for me. I think $7mio for a HS 1b, regardless of bat, is silly. If BAL can get him and give him $4mio or so, I gladly put him in the above group.

Boras always makes these outrageous demands and then settles for much less. At #2 and #3 last year Moustakas and Vitters ended up signing for $4mil and $3.2mil. I believe both players were asking for much more. I think Vitters was rumored to be demanding $7-$8 mil prior to the draft. IF the Orioles signed Hosmer at #4 there is no way he gets more than $4mil.

[Stotle]

Boras always makes these outrageous demands and then settles for much less. At #2 and #3 last year Moustakas and Vitters ended up signing for $4mil and $3.2mil. I believe both players were asking for much more. I think Vitters was rumored to be demanding $7-$8 mil prior to the draft. IF the Orioles signed Hosmer at #4 there is no way he gets more than $4mil.

That's great, and I am all for it. The issue, though, is where Hosmer stands. How much does he like ASU? Is there a possibility that he doesn't sign? One wouldn't think so -- I just don't know for sure. Porcello was pretty set on UNC until DET through a TON of money at him (I think the fact that it was DET helped a lot, as well).

The nice thing, is Boras will be straight forward as to the players interest in your team. If Hosmer has a team or two in the top 5 that he really would like to play for, or a team or two in the top 10 that he really would not like to play for, Boras will convey that be explaining whether there is room to negotiate well before draft day. The issue is for teams that fall in betweem -- if ASU remains enticing, and he isn't sold on the team drafting him, he could certainly head to school if his demands aren't met. I wouldn't want to be in that position if I'm BAL.

[napbow]

That's great, and I am all for it. The issue, though, is where Hosmer stands. How much does he like ASU? Is there a possibility that he doesn't sign? One wouldn't think so -- I just don't know for sure. Porcello was pretty set on UNC until DET through a TON of money at him (I think the fact that it was DET helped a lot, as well).

The nice thing, is Boras will be straight forward as to the players interest in your team. If Hosmer has a team or two in the top 5 that he really would like to play for, or a team or two in the top 10 that he really would not like to play for, Boras will convey that be explaining whether there is room to negotiate well before draft day. The issue is for teams that fall in betweem -- if ASU remains enticing, and he isn't sold on the team drafting him, he could certainly head to school if his demands aren't met. I wouldn't want to be in that position if I'm BAL.

All depends on the individual. It takes a heck of man to turn down 4 million to play ball. 9 out of 10 will take it.

[Stotle]

All depends on the individual. It takes a heck of man to turn down 4 million to play ball. 9 out of 10 will take it.

Generally, yes. But if someone is keen on college ball (and there are those kids out there) and that person considers himself a solid bet to go for $2-4mio more in two years, it's worth taking into account. I don't know enough about Hosmer's relationship with Murphy. I know nothign would make ASU happier than both Hosmer and Skipworth not signing -- I know it will never happen. :)

[napbow]

Generally, yes. But if someone is keen on college ball (and there are those kids out there) and that person considers himself a solid bet to go for $2-4mio more in two years, it's worth taking into account. I don't know enough about Hosmer's relationship with Murphy. I know nothign would make ASU happier than both Hosmer and Skipworth not signing -- I know it will never happen. :)

I've only been following the MLB draft for a year now so don't take this the wrong way. Have any HS first rounders denied over 3 mill to go to college?

I know there are bunch that have denied offers of close to a million (Smoak).

I remember Wade Townsend going back, but he was already in college so it may have been easier.

[Mackus]

Generally, yes. But if someone is keen on college ball (and there are those kids out there) and that person considers himself a solid bet to go for $2-4mio more in two years, it's worth taking into account. I don't know enough about Hosmer's relationship with Murphy. I know nothign would make ASU happier than both Hosmer and Skipworth not signing -- I know it will never happen. :)Considering the $6.1M Wieters got was the biggest straight bonus ever, I don't think many guys would expect to top that in three years (they've gotta wait 3 years if a HS guy doesn't sign, or go to JuCo).

[Stotle]

I've only been following the MLB draft for a year now so don't take this the wrong way. Have any HS first rounders denied over 3 mill to go to college?

I know there are bunch that have denied offers of close to a million (Smoak).

I remember Wade Townsend going back, but he was already in college so it may have been easier.

Usually, if the player is big on college, he will let teams know and they will not bother drafting him until late (take a flier and throw some money at him). Hosmer has put it out there that he is looking for $7mio. To me, that means he is serious about getting drafted and Boras is positioning him to 1) get the most money he can, and 2) allow for a preferential team to get a break.

Let's say Hosmer would prefer not to play for KAN. Boras would likely inform KAN that there is very little negotiating room, and Hosmer is very excited by the prospect of playing for Murphy at ASU. Boras could then turn around and tell, say, NYY that Hosmer would love to play for NYY and if he's drafted a deal can certainly be reached.

There are a ton of variables -- I just wouldn't assume Hosmer will be an easy sign just because no one has turned down $4mio before (if they haven't -- no one springs to mind). If he likes ASU and the idea of playing in college, he could certainly play college ball for 2 years.

All that said, I think he signs.

[Stotle]

Considering the $6.1M Wieters got was the biggest straight bonus ever, I don't think many guys would expect to top that in three years (they've gotta wait 3 years if a HS guy doesn't sign, or go to JuCo).

Yeah, I meant junior year -- I was ticking off FR/SO in my head and just said 2.

Maybe you guys are right -- seems to me like a trickier situation than you two are presenting. Heck, I hope I'm wrong if BAL grabs him at #4.

[Mackus]

Yeah, I meant junior year -- I was ticking off FR/SO in my head and just said 2.

Maybe you guys are right -- seems to me like a trickier situation than you two are presenting. Heck, I hope I'm wrong if BAL grabs him at #4.What were the reports of what Boras wanted? $9M? He was saying well over $10M for Wieters and he was one of the best college prospects in years, he signed for $6.1M. So I'd be pretty shocked if Hosmer doesn't accept something in the $4-5M range.

[Stotle]

What were the reports of what Boras wanted? $9M? He was saying well over $10M for Wieters and he was one of the best college prospects in years, he signed for $6.1M. So I'd be pretty shocked if Hosmer doesn't accept something in the $4-5M range.

And my original statement was $5mio for a HS 1b is a little silly. Justin Upton was a five-tool player drafted as a SS and he got $6.1.

When I threw out $4mio, that was my idea of a ceiling. Moustakas got $4mio last year as a SS/3b and my guess is Hosmer is looking to sign for more. I'm not sure BAL wouldn't be better off drafting Matusz/Posey and maybe even Smoak and spending the extra $2mio or so on over-slot picks in the following rounds. I don't think money should be an issue when you are targeting a specific guy, but it shouldn't be ignored when you're talking about essentially drafting a guy for his bat when he has yet to hit outside of HS.

As always, just my opinion.

[JJLinn29]

My list right now is:

1. Alvarez
2. T. Beckham
3. Crow
4. Matusz

So I'm obviously going with Matusz.

[LookinUp]

Take it for what it's worth, but this little snippet was posted on the MLBTradeRumors forums.

I know this is about the Royals, but I still wanted to point out that the Bucs have been linked to Matusz for quite sometime now. It's rumored that his advisers have already told Pitsburgh management that he would sign for slot unlike most of the top guys and we all know that the Bucs aren't going to go over slot for anyone.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/04/royals-consider.html#comments

Thoughts?


Drawing conclusions here...if T. Beckham goes #1 overall, and this rumor is true, then there's a huge chance that Alvarez falls to us (KC likely to take Crow).

If Crow goes #1 overall, and this rumor is true, KC would have the option between Beckham, Alvarez and the other local product (sorry, I forgot his name).

Both scenarios bode very well for the O's. In fact, any draft where Matusz looks like the worst alternative looks pretty good for me.

[Stotle]

Drawing conclusions here...if T. Beckham goes #1 overall, and this rumor is true, then there's a huge chance that Alvarez falls to us (KC likely to take Crow).

If Crow goes #1 overall, and this rumor is true, KC would have the option between Beckham, Alvarez and the other local product (sorry, I forgot his name).

Both scenarios bode very well for the O's. In fact, any draft where Matusz looks like the worst alternative looks pretty good for me.

Tim Melville is the kid you're thinking about.

[wayne25]

Another interesting question might be, what if Alvarez, T. Beckham, and Hosmer are all gone. The best talent at the #4 spot would almost definitely be a pitcher. Would you still go with Smoak or G. Beckham just to get a positional player? This question is pointed more towards people who insist on a positional player but I would hope that everyone would put in their two cents.

Would really look at Smoak, but right now its Posey, No pitcher

[wayne25]

I like both Crow and Matusz and would be pleased to draft either of them.

My personal draft board will be out later today at my (http://www.mlb-draft.com) draft site, but the top four should look something like this...

1. Eric Hosmer
2. Tim Beckham
3. Pedro Alvarez
4. Brian Matusz/Aaron Crow (dead heat)

Agree one, two, three, but would put Posey there before pitchers, maybe even Smoak, depending on the next month. Glad to see Hosmer # 1.