Update: April 27, 2008

[Greg Pappas]

Trying to rank these guys is becoming awfully difficult.

There isn't a consensus #1 guy, and with little information available on Beckham it's hard to keep him at #1 with so many great players lighting it up. Also, with Alvarez struggling how long do I wait until I move him down the board? A month? Less? Smoak, Posey, Skipworth and Beckham are all tearing it up and Hosmer is playing very well despite getting little to hit.

Matusz has passed Crow in my eyes, and is showing scouts that labeling him as only a strong #2 may be a bit premature. Crow has been struggling a bit of late but still has great tools going forward.

As of April 27, 2008

Hitters:

H.S. SS-Tim Beckham > Supposedly playing very well.

H.S. 1B-Eric Hosmer > In 99 PA's/71 AB's, .479 BA, 10 HR's, 22 RBI, 14/14 SB's (a streak of 28/28) 24 BB's, 11 K's, .606 OBP/.986 SLG/ 1.592 OPS.

H.S. C-Kyle Skipworth > In 89 PA's/72 AB's, .597 BA, 12 HR's, 43 RBI, 15 BB's, 10 K's, .663 OBP/ 1.278 SLG/ 1.941OPS.

College 3B-Pedro Alvarez > In 83 AB's > .277 BA, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 15 BB's, 17 K's, 3/4 SB's, .400 OBP/ .482 SLG/ .882 OPS.

College C-Buster Posey > In 154 AB's, .474 BA, 11 HR's, 49 RBI, 34 BB's, 11 K's, 4/7 SB's, .571 OBP/ .838 SLG/ 1.409 OPS.

College 1B-Justin Smoak > In 168 AB's, .405 BA/ 18 HR, 51 RBI, 40 BB's, 21 K's , 0/3 SB's, .521 OBP/ .821 SLG/ 1.342 OPS.

College SS-Gordon Beckham > In 167 AB's> .437 BA, 20 HR's, 48 RBI, 34 BB's, 15 K's, 16/17 SB's, .548 OBP/.904 SLG/1.452 OPS.


Pitchers:

College LHSP-Brian Matusz > 73.2 IP... 1.59 ERA, 58 Hits/18BB's, 99 K's, and a .210 BAA.

College RHSP-Aaron Crow > 70.2 IP... 2.80 ERA, 58 Hits/20 BB's, 84 K's.

College RHSP-Shooter Hunt > 63.2 IP... 1.98 ERA, 30 Hits/37 BB's, 90 K's, and a .139 BAA.



Folks, that's a lot to like. :)

For additional info on these players, please go here (http://ww.mlb-draft.com).

[allstar1579]

Man, I don't envy you, it's getting really tough to call in that 1-10 range now. So what do you think is more likely in the top 4, G. Beckham sneaking into it, or P. Alvarez falling out of it? I have always said if Alvarez drops that's my dream pick this year, but Beckham is making it really hard to hope for that.

[Greg Pappas]

Man, I don't envy you, it's getting really tough to call in that 1-10 range now. So what do you think is more likely in the top 4, G. Beckham sneaking into it, or P. Alvarez falling out of it? I have always said if Alvarez drops that's my dream pick this year, but Beckham is making it really hard to hope for that.

Both Gordon jumping in and Pedro dropping out are possibilities, although I expect that Alvarez will recover his prowess in time to have the teams secure in his skills to nab him early. I imagine that if Alvarez happened to drop to four and Jordan felt that he was the best player available that he'd take him.

I truly believe that all three H.S. bats are special (TBeckham, Hosmer, Skipworth) and that Matusz, Alvarez & Smoak are quite likely to be quality ML'ers, with Posey and GBeckham on the verge of that lofty status.

My head has been spinning trying to compare these youngsters to one another... LOL.

From an Orioles standpoint, it seems unlikely that we'd grab Posey or Skipworth at #4... as we already have a great catcher prospect on the way in Matt Wieters. One could argue the 'dual catcher hypothesis' where Wieters and Posey/Skipworth could share catching duties, and thus extend both of their careers, allowing each other a chance to rest some days and DH/fill-in other days. However, with so much need and with so many non-catchers available to fill a need, the focus should be elsewhere.

So that would leave Matusz/Alvarez/TBeckham/Hosmer as the guys most desireable, with GBeckham and Crow not far behind... in my view at least.

Again... a whole lot to consider. :D

[allstar1579]

Both Gordon jumping in and Pedro dropping out are possibilities, although I expect that Alvarez will recover his prowess in time to have the teams secure in his skills to nab him early. I imagine that if Alvarez happened to drop to four and Jordan felt that he was the best player available that he's take him.

I truly believe that all three H.S. bats are special (TBeckham, Hosmer, Skipworth) and that Matusz, Alvarez & Smoak are quite likely to be quality ML'ers, with Posey and GBeckham on the verge of that lofty status.

My head has been spinning trying to compare these youngsters to one another... LOL.

From an Orioles standpoint, it seems unlikely that we'd grab Posey or Skipworth at #4... as we already have a great catcher prospect on the way in Matt Wieters. One could argue the 'dual catcher hypothesis' where Wieters and Posey/Skipworth could share catching duties, and thus extend both of their careers, allowing each other a chance to rest some days and DH/fill-in other days. However, with so much need and with so many non-catchers available to fill a need, the focus should be elsewhere.

So that would leave Matusz/Alvarez/TBeckham/Hosmer as the guys most desireable, with GBeckham and Crow not far behind... in my view at least.

Again... a whole lot to consider. :D

Yeah, I'm right there with you. I've been hoping for Alvarez, and I think even with the injury he still is worth a top 4 pick. I think the talent gap has been really narrowed in the past month though. It went from a 4 player draft to more like an 8 player draft. I think CIN should be smiling knowing that they will get a top guy at #7 now.

I think we should avoid another catcher with all that talent at SS/1b/P though, spread it around some. 20 HR power from a SS is hard to walk away from though, whether its Tim or Gordon.

There's one for you, does Tim look like another in the mold of HRam/J.Reyes/J. Rollins? Or does he look more of a speed/avg guy?

[Stotle]

I'm glad Matusz is separating himself a bit. I really felt it was a shame that Crow was overshadowing him based almost solely on his stint in the Cape. Also, it makes it more likely that PIT grabs him and leaves one of the big bats for us!

Regarding AllStar's question to greg, HRam/J.Reyes/J. Rollins are all very different SS. I would personally put him closer to Rollins out of the 3. He is a better fielder than Hanley, has potential for more pop than Reyes.

[clarence]

Matusz will be grabbed by AM if he is still on the board when we pick. He won't pass on a top of the rotation type lefty.

I would think the way the team is currently constructed, that AM is probably secretly hoping that the a college player he wants is available and that he doesn't have to make a Rowell/ Snyder type gamble with a high schooler.

[allstar1579]

I'm glad Matusz is separating himself a bit. I really felt it was a shame that Crow was overshadowing him based almost solely on his stint in the Cape. Also, it makes it more likely that PIT grabs him and leaves one of the big bats for us!

Regarding AllStar's question to greg, HRam/J.Reyes/J. Rollins are all very different SS. I would personally put him closer to Rollins out of the 3. He is a better fielder than Hanley, has potential for more pop than Reyes.


Does Tim have that kind of power though? I thought he was supposed to have "developing power" where Rollins is more a 30/30 kind of guy.

Just trying to get a comparison to some of the guys like those 3 or Crosby, or Tulo.

[Greg Pappas]

Does Tim have that kind of power though? I thought he was supposed to have "developing power" where Rollins is more a 30/30 kind of guy.

Just trying to get a comparison to some of the guys like those 3 or Crosby, or Tulo.

This is all speculation obviously, but...

Tim Beckham might be projected by scouts as having a similar line as this as a pro, IF he hit's his ceiling> .300+ BA/ 20+ HR's, .400 OBP/.475 SLG/ .875 OPS with 40+ SB's.

[CharmCityHokie]

Matusz will be grabbed by AM if he is still on the board when we pick. He won't pass on a top of the rotation type lefty.

I would think the way the team is currently constructed, that AM is probably secretly hoping that the a college player he wants is available and that he doesn't have to make a Rowell/ Snyder type gamble with a high schooler.

I agree with that AM well take Matusz if hes still around and putting up monster numbers, and honestly, no matter what I hope we take the top pitcher or the top power bat but thats just me

[allstar1579]

This is all speculation obviously, but...

Tim Beckham might be projected by scouts as having a similar line as this as a pro, IF he hit's his ceiling> .300+ BA/ 20+ HR's, .400 OBP/.475 SLG/ .875 OPS with 40+ SB's.

Ok cool, so he's projected to put up HRam kinda numbers. That's what I figured, it's just easier for me to get a feel of the top 5 or so if I have an established player to compare them to. I figured TBeck to be next in line of those top SS guys, and GBeck to be something like a .280/20/90 10SB kinda guy. Who knows anymore, GBeck could be the next Chase Utley the way he looks right now.

[Stotle]

Ok cool, so he's projected to put up HRam kinda numbers. That's what I figured, it's just easier for me to get a feel of the top 5 or so if I have an established player to compare them to. I figured TBeck to be next in line of those top SS guys, and GBeck to be something like a .280/20/90 10SB kinda guy. Who knows anymore, GBeck could be the next Chase Utley the way he looks right now.

Well, Rollins wasn't a 30 HR bat until he started playing at the new stadium. Ramirez hit 29 in a pitchers' park. T-Bex doesn't seem likely to develop HanRam power and is a much much much better defender. If you are looking for an ML comparison, Rollins would probably be the closest.

2007 OPS+
Rollins 118
Ramirez 145

[napbow]

Stotle and Greg, how would rate Hosmer and Beckham's bat compared to Rowell when he was coming out?

[Greg Pappas]

Stotle and Greg, how would rate Hosmer and Beckham's bat compared to Rowell when he was coming out?

I like Rowell, but don't view him in the class of hitter as either Hosmer or Beckham coming out of H.S. Where Rowell struggled against higher level pitching on the all-star circuit, Hosmer and Beckham have excelled, Hosmer in particular.

[Hank Scorpio]

Both Gordon jumping in and Pedro dropping out are possibilities, although I expect that Alvarez will recover his prowess in time to have the teams secure in his skills to nab him early. I imagine that if Alvarez happened to drop to four and Jordan felt that he was the best player available that he'd take him.

I truly believe that all three H.S. bats are special (TBeckham, Hosmer, Skipworth) and that Matusz, Alvarez & Smoak are quite likely to be quality ML'ers, with Posey and GBeckham on the verge of that lofty status.

My head has been spinning trying to compare these youngsters to one another... LOL.

From an Orioles standpoint, it seems unlikely that we'd grab Posey or Skipworth at #4... as we already have a great catcher prospect on the way in Matt Wieters. One could argue the 'dual catcher hypothesis' where Wieters and Posey/Skipworth could share catching duties, and thus extend both of their careers, allowing each other a chance to rest some days and DH/fill-in other days. However, with so much need and with so many non-catchers available to fill a need, the focus should be elsewhere.

So that would leave Matusz/Alvarez/TBeckham/Hosmer as the guys most desireable, with GBeckham and Crow not far behind... in my view at least.

Again... a whole lot to consider. :D

So you're assuming that Smoak will be gone by #4...

[Stotle]

I like Rowell, but don't view him in the class of hitter as either Hosmer or Beckham coming out of H.S. Where Rowell struggled against higher level pitching on the all-star circuit, Hosmer and Beckham have excelled, Hosmer in particular.

Ditto, though this doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme. Rowell was still an elite bat and was the best HS bat in the draft. His frame and swing should give him potential for plus-power, which is a less-sure thing for Beckham.

In the end, I think it comes down to Hosmer and then Beckham/Rowell depending on what you are looking for.

[Greg Pappas]

So you're assuming that Smoak will be gone by #4...

Doh! I missed him! LOL

How could that happen, when I've professed my man-crush for so long now? :D