Trade Advice Needed

[Pedro Cerrano]

Lt. Melmo, I'm looking at you!:D

anyway, here is my roster

C: Geovany Soto
1B: Derrek Lee
2B: Howie Kendrick
SS: Michael Young, Miguel Tejada
3B: David Wright
OF: JOhnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, Delmon Young, Matt Kemp

BENCH: Erick Aybar, Scott Rolen, Michael Cuddyer

SP
Brandon Webb
Fausto Carmona
Brad Penny
Joe Blanton
Joe Saunders

I was offered Felix Hernandez for Magglio Ordonez.

I am considering this because Aybar is playing well and I can just move him into the DH slot that Maggs gives up. Also, as you can tell, my SP for the most part don't K a lot of guys (other than Webb).

Thoughts on this offer?

[allstar1579]

Nah, leave it alone man. While it is always intriguing at a shot at Felix, your OF will be pretty weak if you take out Mags, and your SP are good enough now to have you sitting pretty decent for a while.

[Alphonse]

My first inclination would be to take the deal. Of course, it all depends on the size of the league, league-type, etc.

[Lt Melmo]

Sweet, a call-out. :cool:

First thing's first, how many teams are in the league?

And second... Felix looks like an ideal pitcher for you. You have a guy probably thinking he'll fleece you with a sell-high, but I believe in Felix this year. He's got a .300 BABIP, and he's doing great with GB:FB, so I don't think the homers will spike. Your pitching outside of Webb isn't reliable. Saunders is overachieving, Carmona was definitely overachieving last season (putting up periphs worse than Trax so far) and Penny is famously streaky. I like Blanton as a sleeper, but he's not a guy you can rely on to take a big step.

Your offense can certainly take a hit for a pitcher. Maggs is a great player, and ideally I'd respond first by making a counter-offer for Kemp (or Maggs for a better pitcher), but if he doesn't bite, re-offer Maggs up. And pray he/she doesn't read the OH.

[Pedro Cerrano]

This is a 13 team roto league.

[allstar1579]

Sweet, a call-out. :cool:

First thing's first, how many teams are in the league?

And second... Felix looks like an ideal pitcher for you. You have a guy probably thinking he'll fleece you with a sell-high, but I believe in Felix this year. He's got a .300 BABIP, and he's doing great with GB:FB, so I don't think the homers will spike. Your pitching outside of Webb isn't reliable. Saunders is overachieving, Carmona was definitely overachieving last season (putting up periphs worse than Trax so far) and Penny is famously streaky. I like Blanton as a sleeper, but he's not a guy you can rely on to take a big step.

Your offense can certainly take a hit for a pitcher. Maggs is a great player, and ideally I'd respond first by making a counter-offer for Kemp (or Maggs for a better pitcher), but if he doesn't bite, re-offer Maggs up. And pray he/she doesn't read the OH.

The pitching will be fine without Felix, you are overvaluing him. Yeah he's a great #2 to have, but it's not like this is Peavy or Santana. Penny has been consistant for 3 years, and it right on pace for that again. He'll give you 15-18 wins, and a low-mid 3 ERA. Carmona is a bit of a guess right now, since its just one season to go on, but even with the bad periphs, he's still got 3 wins (robbed of a 4th) and a sub-3 ERA, as your #3 starter you are in good shape.

The OF is going to take a crazy hit without Mags. DET's offense is just starting to get going, and I bet that is what this guy is banking on, getting you to sell low on him, and buy high on Felix. Not a good combo. Kemp should have no trade value right now, he's not even starting over Pierre. If there are some decent OF you could claim to try to make up some of that offense, take a gamble if you want, but I would try to get him to add a decent offensive player. Deal Rolen if he'll take him, or one of your SS, you don't need 2.

[Lt Melmo]

The pitching will be fine without Felix, you are overvaluing him. Yeah he's a great #2 to have, but it's not like this is Peavy or Santana.
I don't know where you're coming from with this, but everyone in the baseball universe knows about Felix's potential, and everyone knows that he's liable to seriously break out at any moment. Kinda looks like he's doing that now. In which case, yes, this is Peavy or Santana.

Penny has been consistant for 3 years, and it right on pace for that again. He'll give you 15-18 wins, and a low-mid 3 ERA.
You're basing your ERA projection on last year. Take out 04 and 07 and his ERA is in the 4's. And Penny's famous second-half busts make him the opposite of "consistently good" and the epitome of "consistently of really good and then useless in fantasy" so yeah, I guess he's consistent.

The OF is going to take a crazy hit without Mags.
You have to give up something to get something. He has good offense. Can't say the same about his pitching.

DET's offense is just starting to get going, and I bet that is what this guy is banking on, getting you to sell low on him, and buy high on Felix. Not a good combo.
What are you talking about selling low? He's hitting .305 with 5 homers. That's just about what you can expect from him this year.

Kemp should have no trade value right now, he's not even starting over Pierre.
No idea what you're talking about here, he has 80 AB and he's started every day the past week.

[allstar1579]

I don't know where you're coming from with this, but everyone in the baseball universe knows about Felix's potential, and everyone knows that he's liable to seriously break out at any moment. Kinda looks like he's doing that now. In which case, yes, this is Peavy or Santana.

You're basing your ERA projection on last year. Take out 04 and 07 and his ERA is in the 4's. And Penny's famous second-half busts make him the opposite of "consistently good" and the epitome of "consistently of really good and then useless in fantasy" so yeah, I guess he's consistent.

You have to give up something to get something. He has good offense. Can't say the same about his pitching.

What are you talking about selling low? He's hitting .305 with 5 homers. That's just about what you can expect from him this year.

No idea what you're talking about here, he has 80 AB and he's started every day the past week.

Felix - I'm sure you were one of the ten million people saying that last May too, how did that turn out for him? I'm not down on him, but he's not in the elite category yet. To make a trade in a non-keeper league based on potential is the kiss of death most of the time.

Penny - Is what you want in a fantasy league, a guy that will pitch a good amount of innings, in a pitcher's park, and put up decent numbers. Why would you take out 04 and 07? You can't just pick years to take out and judge him, if that was the case, take out 05 and 06 and he's Peavy.

Mags - Utley is hitting .350 with 10HR, that would be selling high.

Kemp - will be great, sooner than later, but probably needs a year before he is worth that lofty tag people seem to want to put on him, again, not a keeper league.

I'm just giving my opinion, he doesn't need to take it, obviously we have different views here, and that could work for you, you obviously do know what you are talking about, it's not like you are trying to justify Howard for Mark Reynolds straight up, but we do things differently.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I rejected his offer and he countered with Maggs and Michael Young for Felix Hernandez and Hideki Matsui. How much better is Maggs than Matsui? Obv Felix has more value than Michael Young.

Problem is, Saunders just tossed 8 SO innings last night and looks great at 5-0. Do I really want to let him go? (we can only have 5 SP in our league so I'd have to drop him or Blanton to make roster room).

[allstar1579]

I rejected his offer and he countered with Maggs and Michael Young for Felix Hernandez and Hideki Matsui. How much better is Maggs than Matsui? Obv Felix has more value than Michael Young.

Problem is, Saunders just tossed 8 SO innings last night and looks great at 5-0. Do I really want to let him go? (we can only have 5 SP in our league so I'd have to drop him or Blanton to make roster room).

That might be a good deal for you. Matsui looks like he is good for 25 HR 100RBI and .290 avg. Mags has been avg about 28HR and 115RBI .300 avg. The difference is not much at all, and trading a surplus of SS for Felix is a great deal. I think I would take that one. Just keep your eyes open on the waiver wire for an OF having a good power year (someone like Willingham).

Keep Saunders, his numbers won't stay THIS filthy, but he will be good for 15 wins and a mid-3 ERA which is a must for a fantasy team. Drop Blanton if you HAVE to drop one, but in a 2 for 2 deal why do you have to drop one?

[McNulty]

The answer to your question really lies in how much you need strikeouts. How is the rest of the league stacking up against you? If you are playing roto, and you are middle of the pack in K's, I'd leave it alone. Another option still is to pick up Jonathan Sanchez if you need K's.

If I were you, I'd take a long look at the waiver wire. But Felix for Maggs is definately a fair value IF you will be happy gambling on Rolen in your DH spot (and I would put him in over Aybar....Michael Young is a better option than both BTW).

One guy I've been really impressed with is Conor Jackson. I'd pick him up or Frank Thomas if he's still floating around, along with Ryan Church.