How would everyone like to see our draft go?

[big leagues 23]

Would everyone rather see the O's draft mostly position players or pitchers? Also would everyone rather see college players drafted or high school players?

For me, I would like to see mostly positional players taken few pitchers here and there. I would like for most of the picks to be college players with high school players be taken later on in the draft.

[allstar1579]

Best. Available. Talent.

[CharmCityHokie]

Best. Available. Talent.

I absolutely agree with this

[DennisTheOsFan]

C'mon guys, that's the easy way out. Rather than just stating "best player available", maybe give the guy your opinion of the way you'd list the draftees in the order of BPA.

BigLeagues23, because I'm more than happy with the collection of arms we have in the organization, if a good bat is there for the taking at 4 (Alvarez or T. Beckham to be specific), I'd take them over Matusz or Crow. Yes, maybe they might turn out to be aces, but with our talented pitching corp, I'm willing to take a flier on big bats who can provide help in Baltimore, where there's lack of power.

Here's how I'd rate my wishlist

1) Alvarez
2) T. Beckham
3) Smoak
4) Hosmer

[RZNJ]

Unless T. Beckham or Hosmer's bats are rated significantly better than Alvarez or Smoak, or even G. Beckham, I'd prefer to go with the top college bat on the board with the first pick. If there's still a highly rated college bat available with the 2nd pick, I think I'd go that way again. After that it's tough to say.

[Fairfax Bird]

It starts with who is going to be gone. That would be T. Beckham and Alvarez in my opinion. Don't want a pitcher, so I would love to see them draft one of the college guys like RZNJ, Smoak or Beckham. Either one gives us a good bat at a position we need. I am hopeful Beckham will be an average ML SS defensively.

[allstar1579]

There are a few talents out there that are great and I'd love to have, but at this point of the rebuilding we need talent at all levels, so I am completely fine with whoever we take, the only thing we can't do is get a total flop.

[Stotle]

My personal four would look like this (taking the best of what is left):

1. Alvarez, 3b (Vanderbilt)
2. T. Beckham, SS (Griffin HS)
3. Matusz, SP (San Diego)
4. Smoak, 1b (South Carolina)

I have concerns with G. Bekcham's swing, Posey and Hosmer are even with Smoak on my board. Posey gets dinged (because of Wieters last year) and Hosmer gets dinged for costing more to sign than Smoak and requiring an extra 1.5-2.5 years of developmental time.

I'd rather give Smoak $4mio and have a return in 2010 than give $5mio to Hosmer and get potentially an extra 5 HR a year starting 2012.

[ChaosLex]

1. Alvarez
2. T. Beckham
3. Crow
4. Smoak
5. G. Beckham
6. Hosmer
7. Matusz
8. Posey

[Fairfax Bird]

My personal four would look like this (taking the best of what is left):

1. Alvarez, 3b (Vanderbilt)
2. T. Beckham, SS (Griffin HS)
3. Matusz, SP (San Diego)
4. Smoak, 1b (South Carolina)

I have concerns with G. Bekcham's swing, Posey and Hosmer are even with Smoak on my board. Posey gets dinged (because of Wieters last year) and Hosmer gets dinged for costing more to sign than Smoak and requiring an extra 1.5-2.5 years of developmental time.

I'd rather give Smoak $4mio and have a return in 2010 than give $5mio to Hosmer and get potentially an extra 5 HR a year starting 2012.


I know you have an issue with G. Beckham's swing, but there is no doubt that he is having a phenomonal year, coming off a good Cape Cod season where he lead the CC league in homers.

Beckham is now at:

.418/.532/.876/1.408 with 21 HRs and a 17K / 36 BB. I have read your thoughts on his swing, but I have watched him this spring and think that he will not bust. Smoak would be a great pick, so would Beckham.

[Greg Pappas]

Would everyone rather see the O's draft mostly position players or pitchers? Also would everyone rather see college players drafted or high school players?

For me, I would like to see mostly positional players taken few pitchers here and there. I would like for most of the picks to be college players with high school players be taken later on in the draft.

Good post. The answer to this qustion has come up before within this forum, and many have said that you take the Best Player Available... including me. Naturally, the Orioles draft board is being set up and as the draft nears they will have a clear understanding of who gets ranked where, who they really like, who they see as sleepers and who fits their organizational philosophy (They have one... right? :D).

My thoughts have always been this; the following is an example of what I'll be referring to...

Tim Beckham; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 92
Brian Matusz; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 92
Pedro Alvarez; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 91
Justin Smoak; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 90
Eric Hosmer; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 90
Aaron Crow; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 90
Gordon Beckham; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 89
Buster Posey; Overall Orioles Scouting Score= 89

The Orioles (Joe Jordan in particular) pick fourth, and let's say that the draft goes like this:

1. TB- Tim Beckham
2. Pit- Pedro Alvarez
3. KC- Brian Matusz

The Orioles Top 3 rated players would then be off the board... that leaves Smoak, Hosmer and Crow all with the same Overall Score (90) or value in the Orioles eyes. The score only takes into considerationtheir projected future worth as a ML player, so being a collegian may pose an advantage, as it is generally true that being the more advanced player that they would get to the big leagues a bit quicker (2 years roughly being a fair rule of thumb). So, using that as a factor, it would come down most lkely to Smoak and Crow, and with both college players, it would then likely be a matter of $ (Crow is a Boras guy) and organizational need. Smoak may sign for a bit less, and fills a more pressing need. For argument's sake, lets throw out the financial factor... therfore- in the matter of a tie, Smoak would get the nd, as the Orioles are in more need of the positional prospect than the pitcher.

This of course is just one example of how this could play out, and the likelihood that players are exactly and evenly ranked is ceratinly up or debate.

I guess my point is that it depends on how the Orioles rank hese guys... but I imagine that Jordan will take the highest ated player on his board.

For me personally, and with all things being equal, it would be nice to get a bat like Smoak, Alvarez or Hosmer, or even a future SS in Tim Beckham, or even GBeck if the scouts are convinced he's going to be a very good ML SS.

[Stotle]

I know you have an issue with G. Beckham's swing, but there is no doubt that he is having a phenomonal year, coming off a good Cape Cod season where he lead the CC league in homers.

Beckham is now at:

.418/.532/.876/1.408 with 21 HRs and a 17K / 36 BB. I have read your thoughts on his swing, but I have watched him this spring and think that he will not bust. Smoak would be a great pick, so would Beckham.

Yeah, I agree with you. I have tape of 2 Georgia games I hope to watch today when I get back from the office. Maybe my mind will be changed after seeing G-Bex again.

Any sort of length in a swing just troubles me. His bat is so quick that I think he gets away with his hitch without much trouble. I'd be surprised if there are many, if any, college pitchers that could exploit the hitch -- his swing is too quick. However, wood bat plus increased velocity and command (generally) as he rises through the MiL and I think he hits a wall.

In the interest of fair disclosure, I had/have the same concerns with Todd Frazier (Rutgers SS) selected by CIN last year in the supplemental round. His stats to date?

2007 (Billings (Rk)) 160 AB, 6 2b, 5 3b, 7 HR, 26 SO, 20 BB, .319/.405/.538/.943
(Dayton (LoA)) 22 AB, 3 2b, 0 3b, 2 HR, 4 SO, 2 BB, .318/.375/.727/1.102
2008 (Dayton (LoA)) 101 AB, 10 2b, 0 3b, 7 HR, 26 SO, 14 BB, .307/.391/.614/1.005

Stats last year for Rutgers:
247 AB, 24 2b, 2 3b, 22 HR, 51 SO, 62 BB, .377/.502/.757/1.259

G-Bex this year:
177 AB, 16 2b, 1 3b, 21 HR, 17 SO, 36 BB, .418/.532/.876/1.408

Obviously, Beckham is the better overall prospect. Compare, however, what Frazier is doing in LoA (which is fine) with what Wieters is doing in HiA. Frazier had far superior 2007 college numbers to Wieters, but was not selected in the first 30 picks. Wieters projected as the better prospect for a myriad of reasons, including swing mechanics and raw power. True, you can't deny how impressive G-Bex has been, but at a certain point you have to look past the stats.

I see Beckham falling somewhere between Wieters and Frazier (probably a 10-15 pick, talent-wise). I think he'll actually go 6-10. I want very little doubt in a top-5 pick, and I think there are safer picks with equal upside to G-Bex.

Sorry to play the broken record again. :o

[Fairfax Bird]

Sorry to play the broken record again. :o

It's fine, I am asking over and over again cause I respect your opinion.

[big leagues 23]

How would everyone like our later round strategy to be say we do get our top choice with our first pick? And how much do you think it really effects our later round picks if we do get our top choice or does not have an effect at all?

[Stotle]

How would everyone like our later round strategy to be say we do get our top choice with our first pick? And how much do you think it really effects our later round picks if we do get our top choice or does not have an effect at all?

I don't think it affects or late round picks at all. Past the first few rounds, you are really taking fliers on kids. You take the best talent overall since the kids outside of the first few rounds are unlikely to be impact players (generally). For proof of this, take a look at the difference between what a 1st, 5th and 10th round player generally receives as a signing bonus.

[allstar1579]

Where we are as an organization many of us want to pull for a SS because of the absolute lack of talent there, but we are so thin across the board that it really doesn't matter who we take, because who, besides Weiters is there to block them? Any of Smoak, Hosmer, Alonso could be a help because we aren't currently stacked at 1B AND DH, 3B we have some prospects, but if you have a shot at Alvarez, you take it and deal with positions IF everyone pans out. There are much worse problems to have than having two ML quality successful hitters that play the same position. And pitching you can never have enough of. Personally, we can't really go wrong with who we pick as long as we stay in that top talent range, because we need so much help, and not just for next season, but for seasons down the road as well.

[wickedwitch]

Where we are as an organization many of us want to pull for a SS because of the absolute lack of talent there, but we are so thin across the board that it really doesn't matter who we take, because who, besides Weiters is there to block them?
It just so happens that there are two really good SS in this draft.

[Stotle]

It just so happens that there are two really good SS in this draft.

But only one worthy of a top 4 pick ;)

Some good options for rounds 2-??, though.

[allstar1579]

It just so happens that there are two really good SS in this draft.

You are right there, the fuzzy part, like Stotle said, is that is the 2nd one a better SS than Hosmer or Smoak are a 1B, Alvarez a 3B or Matusz or Crow a SP?

I personally like GBeck, but I also like some of those other guys too. Really, no matter who we end up with out of that group we should be fine, but I'd really hate to see them take Gordon, and then decide his Cape league show was for real in the sense that he will make a lot of errors, and decide to move him to another position where at that position he would be a 2nd or 3rd round choice. (Brandon Snyder comes to mind, great as a catcher, not a 1st rounder as a 1B).

[fischbowl]

I would love a pitcher in the first, either Matusz or Crow.

As for the second and third, I'd like to see Ike Davis and Scott Gorgen

[McNulty]

I just asked Bryan Smith of Baseball Prospectus in his chat today the following:

Mike (Jax, FL): Thanks for the long chat Bryan. If Matusz is available at 4, do you think the O's might pass him because of the lack of positional prospects in their system (especially when compared to their pitching prospects)?

Bryan Smith: I think it would come down to who else was available. I can't really guess at whether Matusz or Gordon Beckham is higher on their board. I think the O's do like lefties quite a bit, and it's hard to find a more polished one. However, Beckham and Alvarez would be pretty intriguing for the reason you mention. I think the only way they pass up Matusz -- assuming T. Beckham and Alvarez are off the board -- would be if they value Gordon Beckham more.

[Stotle]

I just asked Bryan Smith of Baseball Prospectus in his chat today the following:

Mike (Jax, FL): Thanks for the long chat Bryan. If Matusz is available at 4, do you think the O's might pass him because of the lack of positional prospects in their system (especially when compared to their pitching prospects)?

Bryan Smith: I think it would come down to who else was available. I can't really guess at whether Matusz or Gordon Beckham is higher on their board. I think the O's do like lefties quite a bit, and it's hard to find a more polished one. However, Beckham and Alvarez would be pretty intriguing for the reason you mention. I think the only way they pass up Matusz -- assuming T. Beckham and Alvarez are off the board -- would be if they value Gordon Beckham more.

Thanks. As if this day wasn't running bad already..... :eek:

[Fairfax Bird]

Thanks. As if this day wasn't running bad already..... :eek:

If they read this board and they trust your judgement I would say Matusz is higher on their board.;)

[waroriole]

I would love a pitcher in the first, either Matusz or Crow.

As for the second and third, I'd like to see Ike Davis and Scott Gorgen

Do you have any info on Davis and Gorgen, am asking out of ignorance b/c I haven't seen their names mentioned. What positions do they play, college or HS, projections.

[McNulty]

Do you have any info on Davis and Gorgen, am asking out of ignorance b/c I haven't seen their names mentioned. What positions do they play, college or HS, projections.

Ike Davis is an OF/1B on the Arizona State team. Gorgen is a pitcher on UC Irvine.

I believe Davis is closing this year also for ASU, but that's not entirely unusual for college (Buster Posey is closing as well, and Weiters did so also.).

Gorgen helped get the Anteaters to Omaha last year. He only throws about 89-90, so he's a control type guy.

Davis is a big bat who might project to be a first baseman at higher levels, but possibly a servicable OF.

[section18]

We should take the best player available. Hopefully one of the top college hitters will be there. Quicker rise to MLB and less likely to get injured. Pitchers are always a higher risk but sometimes you have to gamble. Let's hope the college hitter is there at #4. I think we will get Smoak. Just a hunch. Most teams today are going for pitchers because teams know you have to have quality pitching if you are going to win.

My #4 pick in order of preference
Alvarez or Smoak
Matusz
Crow

I think the first four picks will be T. Beckham, Matusz, Crow and #4 Alvarez or Smoak. Alvarez has not hit well since breaking a bone in his hand to start the season. I am starting to lean towards Smoak. We need power badly and he is having a great season at SC.

Smoak is 6'4" at 215 lbs and is lefthanded. Currently in 48 games is hitting .401 with 19 HRS, 55 RBI'S and 44 walks. Very impressive hitter and only 22 strikeouts which is good for a power hitter. There is no guarantee we will sign Teixeira for 2009 and we definitely need first basemen in our minor league system. If he produces he can alternate between DH and 1B.

[McNulty]

We should take the best player available. Hopefully one of the top college hitters will be there. Quicker rise to MLB and less likely to get injured. Pitchers are always a higher risk but sometimes you have to gamble. Let's hope the college hitter is there at #4. I think we will get Smoak. Just a hunch. Most teams today are going for pitchers because teams know you have to have quality pitching if you are going to win.

My #4 pick in order of preference
Alvarez or Smoak
Matusz
Crow

I think the first four picks will be T. Beckham, Matusz, Crow and #4 Alvarez or Smoak. Alvarez has not hit well since breaking a bone in his hand to start the season. I am starting to lean towards Smoak. We need power badly and he is having a great season at SC.

Smoak is 6'4" at 215 lbs and is lefthanded. Currently in 48 games is hitting .401 with 19 HRS, 55 RBI'S and 44 walks. Very impressive hitter and only 22 strikeouts which is good for a power hitter. There is no guarantee we will sign Teixeira for 2009 and we definitely need first basemen in our minor league system. If he produces he can alternate between DH and 1B.

Smoak is a switch hitter, and a great defender, which makes him all the more valuable.