Which Draft Prospect Would You Not Want?

[Greg Pappas]

Which of the following players would you be disappointed with if the O's draft them with overall pick#4?

You can select as many as you like. Votes are public.

[markpolis]

Which of the following players would you be disappointed with if the O's draft them withoverall pick#4?

You can select as many as you like.

Were you going to supply a list?

EDIT: Thanks Greg. I wasn't sure, but I thought you would. ;-)

[Greg Pappas]

Were you going to supply a list?

I did, but as usual the post posted before the list was completed. :p

[Hank Scorpio]

We're really in a good spot this year.

I'm pretty confident we'll feel very good about our 1st round pick this year. There are a lot of attractive names on that list. The only one I don't like is Posey, and that's only because we've got Wieters on the way.

[markpolis]

Buster Posey. The latest helium player rocketing up the charts.

IMO, it makes zero sense for the Orioles to select Posey at #4.

We drafted Wieters last year to be the catcher of the future and the very next year we are going to draft another catcher with the fourth pick in the draft? I understand that due to Wieters size he eventually may have to move from catcher. That's eventually, next anytime soon. Wieters should be the team's catcher for the next 8-10 years... at least.

Do you draft Posey to platoon with Wieters? That's ridiculous. You don't waste the #4 overall pick in the draft for a player you project as a platoon player.

If we didn't have Wieters then I would strongly consider Posey. Posey is a very solid player, but is he better than Pedro Alvarez, Tim Beckham or even Gordon Beckham for that matter?

The Orioles are set at the catcher spot for the next ten years. I'm sure Joe Jordon is not even remotely considering Posey. This organization still has a lot of holes to fill, BUT the catcher position is not one of them.

IMO, to draft another catcher in the first round would be a wasted pick.

[hoosiers]

No issue with Posey. Seems like a strong talent who would have a lot of value if he pans out.

Crow is the only one I would be disappointed in drafting.

[markpolis]

No issue with Posey. Seems like a strong talent who would have a lot of value if he pans out.

Crow is the only one I would be disappointed in drafting.

I agree with Crow.

Where would you play Posey? What exactly is his "value"? Are you drafting him to potentially trade him in the near future? Is his "value" that much greater than Alvarez, Beckham (Tim and Gordon) and Smoak? Does he project well at other positions? Do you draft him and move Wieters to 1B, thus intimating Wieters (as a catcher) is a failure? Do we really need to stockpile the catching position when we have so many other holes to fill?

I really don't understand why we should pick Posey and why people would be ok with Posey as our pick?

[Stotle]

Buster Posey. The latest helium player rocketing up the charts.

IMO, it makes zero sense for the Orioles to select Posey at #4.

We drafted Wieters last year to be the catcher of the future and the very next year we are going to draft another catcher with the fourth pick in the draft? I understand that due to Wieters size he eventually may have to move from catcher. That's eventually, next anytime soon. Wieters should be the team's catcher for the next 8-10 years... at least.

Do you draft Posey to platoon with Wieters? That's ridiculous. You don't waste the #4 overall pick in the draft for a player you project as a platoon player.

If we didn't have Wieters then I would strongly consider Posey. Posey is a very solid player, but is he better than Pedro Alvarez, Tim Beckham or even Gordon Beckham for that matter?

The Orioles are set at the catcher spot for the next ten years. I'm sure Joe Jordon is not even remotely considering Posey. This organization still has a lot of holes to fill, BUT the catcher position is not one of them.

IMO, to draft another catcher in the first round would be a wasted pick.

I think if you draft him you end up switching Wieters to 1b/dh at the ML-level.

I think he is better than Gordon Beckham. I don't think he is better than Alvarez. He may be a better bet to stay healthy behind the plate -- and Wieters's bat is really what I want to preserve.

[Stotle]

I agree with Crow.

Where would you play Posey? What exactly is his "value"? Are you drafting him to potentially trade him in the near future? Is his "value" that much greater than Alvarez, Beckham (Tim and Gordon) and Smoak? Does he project well at other positions? Do you draft him and move Wieters to 1B, thus intimating Wieters (as a catcher) is a failure? Do we really need to stockpile the catching position when we have so many other holes to fill?

I really don't understand why we should pick Posey and why people would be ok with Posey as our pick?

Posey is a great bat and a great catcher. Wieters's size may eventually be an issue. Wieters's bat is so good do you want to risk him playing 120 games a year due to injury and standard days off? I think there is an easy case to be made for Posey -- I also think he is a safer bet than Beckham. In fact, if you want to play up Alvarez's injury, you can make the case that Posey is actually the safest college bat in the draft.

[Stotle]

I said no to Crow (don't think he'll hold up long term).

I said no to G. Beckham (my opinion on G-Bex) well documented in various threads).

I said no to Hosmer (I can't justify giving a HS 1b the money he'll demand with so many capable, and safer, bats in the draft -- I'd rather someone else pay $5.5mio for a bat that won't contribute until 2012).

[markpolis]

I think if you draft him you end up switching Wieters to 1b/dh at the ML-level.
I think he is better than Gordon Beckham. I don't think he is better than Alvarez. He may be a better bet to stay healthy behind the plate -- and Wieters's bat is really what I want to preserve.

Which means you immediately switch Wieters to prepare him to play 1B at the major league level. I'm sure Joe Jordon and the Orioles drafted Wieters to be their franchise catcher for the next ten years. A little over 100 at bats and 30 games into his minor league career the team is going to move Wieters to 1B? I really have to question that strategy.

IMO, Wieters is a special player.

Posey isn't that "special" of a player that we need to move Wieters from catcher to accommodate him. Players such as Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz and even Smoak grade out just as high (if not higher) than Posey and they are a much better fit for our organization.

[markpolis]

Posey is a great bat and a great catcher. Wieters's size may eventually be an issue. Wieters's bat is so good do you want to risk him playing 120 games a year due to injury and standard days off? I think there is an easy case to be made for Posey -- I also think he is a safer bet than Beckham. In fact, if you want to play up Alvarez's injury, you can make the case that Posey is actually the safest college bat in the draft.

Ok, now you are reaching. ;)

[Stotle]

Which means you immediately switch Wieters to prepare him to play 1B at the major league level. I'm sure Joe Jordon and the Orioles drafted Wieters to be their franchise catcher for the next ten years. A little over 100 at bats and 30 games into his minor league career the team is going to move Wieters to 1B? I really have to question that strategy.

IMO, Wieters is a special player.

Posey isn't that "special" of a player that we need to move Wieters from catcher to accommodate him. Players such as Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz and even Smoak grade out just as high (if not higher) than Posey and they are a much better fit for our organization.

I never said anything about not picking Alvarez over Posey -- I just wouldn't be upset if we ended up with Posey (which was the question).

Wieters is a special player. He is also 6'5". Do you see him catching and staying healthy for 10 years? Mauer has already started to break down.

Mauer (games played):
05 -- 131
06 -- 140
07 -- 109

How about a similar young talent (breaking in at the same time) at the less physically demanding position of 3b?

David Wright (games played):
05 -- 160
06 -- 154
07 -- 160
Totaling 94 more games, or 31 more games per season.

How about a 1b?

Teix over last 3 years (including his freak injury last year):
05 -- 162
06 -- 162
07 -- 132
Totaling 76 more games, or 25 more games per season.

Pujols (three worst seasons according to games played in bold):
01 -- 161
02 -- 157
03 -- 157
04 -- 154
05 -- 161
06 -- 143
07 -- 158
In worst seasons he totals 74 more games than Mauer, averaging 25 more a year.

Would you rather have your #4/#5 hitter play 140 games a year, or 160? Take into account Wieters will likely miss significant time in at least one season, due to injury.

[Stotle]

Posey is a great bat and a great catcher. Wieters's size may eventually be an issue. Wieters's bat is so good do you want to risk him playing 120 games a year due to injury and standard days off? I think there is an easy case to be made for Posey -- I also think he is a safer bet than Beckham. In fact, if you want to play up Alvarez's injury, you can make the case that Posey is actually the safest college bat in the draft.

Ok, now you are reaching. ;)

Not at all. From an analytical standpoint, Posey is the soundest college player, taking Alvarez's injury into account. He has the cleanest mechanics, the best chance of staying at his position and he has been consistently great this season.

Beckham is not as sound mechanically. Smoak has slumped at times. Alvarez had a hand injury. Alonso has defensive issues.

[hoosiers]

I really don't understand why we should pick Posey and why people would be ok with Posey as our pick?

If Posey is a top talent, why would we defer to a lesser talent just because we have a top catching prospect already in the system?

Maybe we could deal Wieters or Posey in a year and get a better shortstop prospect than Gordon Beckham.

Take the better talent and sort things out later.

[markpolis]

If Posey is a top talent, why would we defer to a lesser talent just because we have a top catching prospect already in the system?

Maybe we could deal Wieters or Posey in a year and get a better shortstop prospect than Gordon Beckham.

Take the better talent and sort things out later.

My point exactly. Posey is not the top talent. He is very good and deserving of a Top 10 pick. He is not a special talent, like Matt Wieters.

If you were grading out players and Posey was a 95 and the others (Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz) graded out at 90-91 then I think you would have to seriously consider selecting Posey. However that is not the case.

IMO, Alvarez and Matusz clearly grade out above Posey with other players such as Smoak and Gordon Beckham grading out the same or slightly below Posey. That being said, do you select Posey (a catcher) who grades out the same as Smoak (1B) or Gordon Beckham (SS) or below Alvarez (3B), Tim Beckham (SS) and Matusz (SP)?

You always take the top talent, but when the talent is equal then you select the player based on need within the organization. At best, Posey is equal to the other players the Orioles have the opportunity to draft at #4. Therefore, I think it would be a big mistake to draft Posey.

[PlumOriole]

For the record I should have voted Posey not Alvarez. Misread the poll. You can delete that if you can.

[markpolis]

I never said anything about not picking Alvarez over Posey -- I just wouldn't be upset if we ended up with Posey (which was the question).

Wieters is a special player. He is also 6'5". Do you see him catching and staying healthy for 10 years? Mauer has already started to break down.

Mauer (games played):
05 -- 131
06 -- 140
07 -- 109

How about a similar young talent (breaking in at the same time) at the less physically demanding position of 3b?

David Wright (games played):
05 -- 160
06 -- 154
07 -- 160
Totaling 94 more games, or 31 more games per season.

How about a 1b?

Teix over last 3 years (including his freak injury last year):
05 -- 162
06 -- 162
07 -- 132
Totaling 76 more games, or 25 more games per season.

Pujols (three worst seasons according to games played in bold):
01 -- 161
02 -- 157
03 -- 157
04 -- 154
05 -- 161
06 -- 143
07 -- 158
In worst seasons he totals 74 more games than Mauer, averaging 25 more a year.

Would you rather have your #4/#5 hitter play 140 games a year, or 160? Take into account Wieters will likely miss significant time in at least one season, due to injury.

You would probably also argue with me that a 6'4" 225lb. player would never be able to play 2632 consecutive games and have a Hall of Fame career as a shortstop. ;)

[Stotle]

You would probably also argue with me that a 6'4" 225lb. player would never be able to play 2632 consecutive games and have a Hall of Fame career as a shortstop. ;)

Cute, but a stawman argument.

The point is, if you choose to address it, do you expect 6'5" Wieters to stay healthy throughout his career constantly crouching and standing up at C?

And, would you rather have Wieters's bat for 160 games a year, or 140?

Finally, if you'd like to show me some all-star catchers that average over 150 games a year, I'd be grateful. Preferably someone large, though he need not be as big a Wieters.

[Greg Pappas]

I never said anything about not picking Alvarez over Posey -- I just wouldn't be upset if we ended up with Posey (which was the question).

Wieters is a special player. He is also 6'5". Do you see him catching and staying healthy for 10 years? Mauer has already started to break down.

Mauer (games played):
05 -- 131
06 -- 140
07 -- 109

How about a similar young talent (breaking in at the same time) at the less physically demanding position of 3b?

David Wright (games played):
05 -- 160
06 -- 154
07 -- 160
Totaling 94 more games, or 31 more games per season.

How about a 1b?

Teix over last 3 years (including his freak injury last year):
05 -- 162
06 -- 162
07 -- 132
Totaling 76 more games, or 25 more games per season.

Pujols (three worst seasons according to games played in bold):
01 -- 161
02 -- 157
03 -- 157
04 -- 154
05 -- 161
06 -- 143
07 -- 158
In worst seasons he totals 74 more games than Mauer, averaging 25 more a year.

Would you rather have your #4/#5 hitter play 140 games a year, or 160? Take into account Wieters will likely miss significant time in at least one season, due to injury.

Where Wieters eventually bats in the lineup in no way should dictate which position he plays in the field. Wieters is a special talent at catcher, you don't already move him off his position before he ever plays a game at the big league level. We drafted him as a catcher, he'll remain one.

I've been one to recognize the benefit of having a second catcher like Posey, however, with excellent options that will be available at pick #4 at positions of need, we should go another route and leave Posey for another team. That is if he is even around at pick #4. Wieters can simply DH on his 'off' days behind the plate. Catch 110'ish games, DH 35-40 games. Seems like a good idea.

[Stotle]

Where Wieters eventually bats in the lineup in no way should dictate which position he plays in the field. Wieters is a special talent at catcher, you don't already move him off his position before he ever plays a game at the big league level. We drafted him as a catcher, he'll remain one.

I've been one to recognize the benefit of having a second catcher like Posey, however, with excellent options that will be available at pick #4 at positions of need, we should go another route and leave Posey for another team. That is if he is even around at pick #4.

Respectfully, this doesn't make much sense. I'm presenting facts that show the only other catcher of comparable size on a big league team has started to break down after three years. Even in his healthy years he only plays 140 games. Wieters is potentially a much better bat. Of course it matters where he hits in the lineup. If he were 6'5", a plus defender/plus arm catcher that projected to bat 8th and hit .265, you don't mind if he misses 20-30 games a year. Why, oh why, would you just accept that one of the best bats in your lineup is only going play in 140 games, tops?? Why do you think V-Mart splits time at 1b now?

Further, it is irrelevant that Wieters has caught thus far in his career. He has never played a season as long as a professional season, and he has never played at a level as physically demanding as he will be each year until he maxes out at the ML level. It is incredibly short-sighted, in my opinion, to simply say don't draft a legit top 5 talent because he is a catcher.

[markpolis]

Respectfully, this doesn't make much sense. I'm presenting facts that show the only other catcher of comparable size on a big league team has started to break down after three years. Even in his healthy years he only plays 140 games. Wieters is potentially a much better bat. Of course it matters where he hits in the lineup. If he were 6'5", a plus defender/plus arm catcher that projected to bat 8th and hit .265, you don't mind if he misses 20-30 games a year. Why, oh why, would you just accept that one of the best bats in your lineup is only going play in 140 games, tops?? Why do you think V-Mart splits time at 1b now?

Further, it is irrelevant that Wieters has caught thus far in his career. He has never played a season as long as a professional season, and he has never played at a level as physically demanding as he will be each year until he maxes out at the ML level. It is incredibly short-sighted, in my opinion, to simply say don't draft a legit top 5 talent because he is a catcher.

IF Posey was that much better than the other options, then yes it would be short-sighted. However, Posey is not better than the other options that will be available to us with the #4 pick. You don't draft him because we already have the very best catching prospect in baseball. Joe Jordon did not draft Wieters to play first base. He may not be catching six or seven years down the line, but he will be catching 140 games a season for the next five or six years.

Do you waste the #4 overall pick on a player you project to be platooning? Worse case is Wieters catches 120 games a year for the next five or six seasons. Do you draft a player who projects to play 40 games a year?

This organization is virtually devoid of positional prospects (other than Wieters, Rowell and perhaps Reimold). Posey is a very nice player, but he's not a special talent. He is not better than Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz or Smoak. I would argue he is inferior to each of them. (with the exception of Smoak) All of those players would fill serious needs within our organization.
Posey does not. Therefore I think it's foolish for the Orioles to even consider drafting Posey.

[Stotle]

IF Posey was that much better than the other options, then yes it would be short-sighted. However, Posey is not better than the other options that will be available to us with the #4 pick. You don't draft him because we already have the very best catching prospect in baseball. Joe Jordon did not draft Wieters to play first base. He may not be catching six or seven years down the line, but he will be catching 140 games a season for the next five or six years.

Do you waste the #4 overall pick on a player you project to be platooning? Worse case is Wieters catches 120 games a year for the next five or six seasons. Do you draft a player who projects to play 40 games a year?

This organization is virtually devoid of positional prospects (other than Wieters, Rowell and perhaps Reimold). Posey is a very nice player, but he's not a special talent. He is not better than Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz or Smoak. I would argue he is inferior to each of them. (with the exception of Smoak) All of those players would fill serious needs within our organization.
Posey does not. Therefore I think it's foolish for the Orioles to even consider drafting Posey.

2008
Wieters -- HiA/AA
Posey -- Rk

2009
Wieters -- AAA/ML (early season call-up)
Posey -- HiA/AA

2010
Wieters -- ML
Posey --AA/AAA/ML (september call-up, Wieters DHs or 1b when Posey plays)

2011
Wieters -- ML (V Mart style 1b/C 150 games)
Posey -- ML (80 games or so catching)

2012
Wieters -- ML (1b/dh 162 games)
Poesy -- ML (c 140 games)

There isn't anything foolish about that. Further, my statement is based on the fact that I view Posey as better than G-Beckham and slightly ahead of Smoak. So am I pulling for Posey? No. Would I be disappointed if they draft him? Absolutely not.

[markpolis]

Cute, but a stawman argument.

The point is, if you choose to address it, do you expect 6'5" Wieters to stay healthy throughout his career constantly crouching and standing up at C?

And, would you rather have Wieters's bat for 160 games a year, or 140?

Finally, if you'd like to show me some all-star catchers that average over 150 games a year, I'd be grateful. Preferably someone large, though he need not be as big a Wieters.

I assume you mean strawman? And how is this a strawman argument? Prior to Ripken, no one thought a man of his size and stature could play the shortstop position, no less for 15 straight years without missing a game.

[markpolis]

2008
Wieters -- HiA/AA
Posey -- Rk

2009
Wieters -- AAA/ML (early season call-up)
Posey -- HiA/AA

2010
Wieters -- ML
Posey --AA/AAA/ML (september call-up, Wieters DHs or 1b when Posey plays)

2011
Wieters -- ML (V Mart style 1b/C 150 games)
Posey -- ML (80 games or so catching)

2012
Wieters -- ML (1b/dh 162 games)
Poesy -- ML (c 140 games)

There isn't anything foolish about that. Further, my statement is based on the fact that I view Posey as better than G-Beckham and slightly ahead of Smoak. So am I pulling for Posey? No. Would I be disappointed if they draft him? Absolutely not.

You have Wieters playing only ONE full season at catcher before switching to a 50-50 platoon in 2011? Interesting.

[Greg Pappas]

2008
Wieters -- HiA/AA
Posey -- Rk

2009
Wieters -- AAA/ML (early season call-up)
Posey -- HiA/AA

2010
Wieters -- ML
Posey --AA/AAA/ML (september call-up, Wieters DHs or 1b when Posey plays)

2011
Wieters -- ML (V Mart style 1b/C 150 games)
Posey -- ML (80 games or so catching)

2012
Wieters -- ML (1b/dh 162 games)
Poesy -- ML (c 140 games)

There isn't anything foolish about that. Further, my statement is based on the fact that I view Posey as better than G-Beckham and slightly ahead of Smoak. So am I pulling for Posey? No. Would I be disappointed if they draft him? Absolutely not.

Wieters bat is likely not special at 1B, but projects so as a catcher. No way you draft Posey and move a special talent like Wieters off his position. I understand that you are basing your opinion on Wieters being unable to handle the position defensively down the road... fair point, but how far down the road? I think Wieters will be just fine for the perceivable future (5-8 years) and a likely All-Star at that.

[Greg Pappas]

Respectfully, this doesn't make much sense. I'm presenting facts that show the only other catcher of comparable size on a big league team has started to break down after three years. Even in his healthy years he only plays 140 games. Wieters is potentially a much better bat. Of course it matters where he hits in the lineup. If he were 6'5", a plus defender/plus arm catcher that projected to bat 8th and hit .265, you don't mind if he misses 20-30 games a year. Why, oh why, would you just accept that one of the best bats in your lineup is only going play in 140 games, tops?? Why do you think V-Mart splits time at 1b now?

Further, it is irrelevant that Wieters has caught thus far in his career. He has never played a season as long as a professional season, and he has never played at a level as physically demanding as he will be each year until he maxes out at the ML level. It is incredibly short-sighted, in my opinion, to simply say don't draft a legit top 5 talent because he is a catcher.

While Markpolis and I see this the same way, and he has already responded, I still wished to respond myself.

You seem to be of the opinion that Wieters will be unlikely to sustain a fairly healthy number of games by remaining at catcher becauise he is a big man at 6' 5... thus, if a talent like Posey were to be taken it would please you knowing that Wieters' career would likely be extended. I do understand this... however, would you prefer 'Wieters at 1B and Posey at C' to 'Smoak at 1B and Wieters at C'?

Wieters projects as an All-Star caliber Catcher, but merely an above average 1B'man. I'd rather keep Wieters behind the plate.

BTW, I know you said that you'd prefer to pick a couple other players over Posey, and that you are merely basing your answer on having Posey as a viable option. :)

[Stotle]

I assume you mean strawman? And how is this a strawman argument? Prior to Ripken, no one thought a man of his size and stature could play the shortstop position, no less for 15 straight years without missing a game.

The issue was that size would prevent mobility required for SS, not cause injury. Different concern.

[Stotle]

You have Wieters playing only ONE full season at catcher before switching to a 50-50 platoon in 2011? Interesting.

Yes, though that is best case scenario in which both he and Posey are ML ready quickly. Also, I'd have the switch sooner but I am giving time for the transition to 1b, and for Posey breaking in. Ultimately, I think a platoon is counter-productive for the pitching staff. I don't buy into the let Poesy/Wieters DH/C each season.

[bluedog]

Where Wieters eventually bats in the lineup in no way should dictate which position he plays in the field. Wieters is a special talent at catcher, you don't already move him off his position before he ever plays a game at the big league level. We drafted him as a catcher, he'll remain one.

I've been one to recognize the benefit of having a second catcher like Posey, however, with excellent options that will be available at pick #4 at positions of need, we should go another route and leave Posey for another team. That is if he is even around at pick #4. Wieters can simply DH on his 'off' days behind the plate. Catch 110'ish games, DH 35-40 games. Seems like a good idea.

There is also nothing wrong with having Wieters catch 120 games and then be available as a pinch hitter off the bench. The Yanks do that a lot with their starters -- instead of using them at DH, they sit them until they need a great hitter in a key situation off the bench.

[Stotle]

Wieters bat is likely not special at 1B, but projects so as a catcher. No way you draft Posey and move a special talent like Wieters off his position. I understand that you are basing your opinion on Wieters being unable to handle the position defensively down the road... fair point, but how far down the road? I think Wieters will be just fine for the perceivable future (5-8 years) and a likely All-Star at that.

I disagree. I think .285/30 is all-star calibre at 1b. I don't question Wieters as a catcher at all. I think he's the bee's knees. I just worry that Mauer can't stay healthy and he is only in his 4th full season. Posey has the added benefit of not catching until recently, meaning there is less wear on his knees (on top of him being four inches shorter and about 25 pounds lighter).

I agree Wieters will be an all-star candidate year-in and year-out at C. I just want to avoid major injuries and would rather have him for 160 games than 140.

[Stotle]

While Markpolis and I see this the same way, and he has already responded, I still wished to respond myself.

You seem to be of the opinion that Wieters will be unlikely to sustain a fairly healthy number of games by remaining at catcher becauise he is a big man at 6' 5... thus, if a talent like Posey were to be taken it would please you knowing that Wieters' career would likely be extended. I do understand this... however, would you prefer 'Wieters at 1B and Posey at C' to 'Smoak at 1B and Wieters at C'?

Wieters projects as an All-Star caliber Catcher, but merely an above average 1B'man. I'd rather keep Wieters behind the plate.

BTW, I know you said that you'd prefer to pick a couple other players over Posey, and that you are merely basing your answer on having Posey as a viable option. :)

No, I would not prefer Posey/Wieters to Wieters/Smoak. However, I would not be upset if the Orioles's Scouting Department decided Posey/Wieters was the better option and drafted Posey. That was the criteria for the poll -- "would you not want them".

[Stotle]

There is also nothing wrong with having Wieters catch 120 games and then be available as a pinch hitter off the bench. The Yanks do that a lot with their starters -- instead of using them at DH, they sit them until they need a great hitter in a key situation off the bench.

I agree, but then you are saying you're fine with leaving around 3 ABs per game on the table (times forty-two games is 126 ABs a season). That amount to turning Wieters into a 20-22 HR catcher rather than a 28-30 HR 1b/dh. As I've said, I love Wieters as the total package, but his bat is more valuable to BAL than anything -- especially if can add another all-star calibre catcher with plus-defense, plus-receiving skills and a plus-arm (to go along with .295-.305/15-18 HR).

[RLB29]

Greg...a question for you

How often do catchers the quality of Wieters and Posey come out back to back?
I think that we need a bat more than pitching, so any hitter on the list would be OK. Posey doen't seem like a logical choice, but you can always trade good catchers. Look what Atlanta did with Salty

[markpolis]

Greg...a question for you

How often do catchers the quality of Wieters and Posey come out back to back?
I think that we need a bat more than pitching, so any hitter on the list would be OK. Posey doen't seem like a logical choice, but you can always trade good catchers. Look what Atlanta did with Salty


Sorry to answer to Greg, but Wieters is a special talent. IMO, Posey is not.

Do you draft a player with the intent on trading him? If Posey was far and away better than the other players the Orioles could draft at #4 then they should draft him. He's not. The Orioles drafted Wieters to be their franchise catcher. It makes no sense to draft another catcher with the #4 pick when we have so many other glaring holes to fill.

[Stotle]

Sorry to answer to Greg, but Wieters is a special talent. IMO, Posey is not.

Do you draft a player with the intent on trading him? If Posey was far and away better than the other players the Orioles could draft at #4 then they should draft him. He's not. The Orioles drafted Wieters to be their franchise catcher. It makes no sense to draft another catcher with the #4 pick when we have so many other glaring holes to fill.

There's an argument to be made that you shouldn't rely on a catcher as a primary building block for a team, offensively.

Again, I love Wieters. I have bats rated higher than Posey. I don't think Posey is as "ordinary" a player as you make him out to be. It rubs me the wrong way, a little, that so many people would be upset at getting Posey. I'd think, knowing BAL has Wieters already, selecting Posey would be a pretty big indicator that Jordan and Co. Think he's the real deal. That would excite me...

[wickedwitch]

Wieters projects as an All-Star caliber Catcher, but merely an above average 1B'man. I'd rather keep Wieters behind the plate.

Precisely. We could have an all-star level 1B and C, but by drafting Posey, we'd likely have neither. They'd only be above average. Wieters can always transfer to 1B later in his career if needs be.

And you don't draft someone who has a good chance of being trade bat, IMO.

[Stotle]

Precisely. We could have an all-star level 1B and C, but by drafting Posey, we'd likely have neither. They'd only be above average. Wieters can always transfer to 1B later in his career if needs be.

And you don't draft someone who has a good chance of being trade bat, IMO.

Hmmmmm. Posey is considered to be a top 5 talent in the draft but is merely above average and not a potential all star? I'm to believe Tampa is being rumored to leave a bunch of potential all stars on the board and take a merely above-average catcher just because they already have too much talent elsewhere in their system?

Wieters is only an above average bat at 1b and not a potential all star? Can someone please explain where this is coming from? Wieters is one of, if not the, best bat in all of HiA.

On what are you guys basing these opinions?

[Stotle]

Sorry to answer to Greg, but Wieters is a special talent. IMO, Posey is not.


Again I ask, why is Posey considered a top 5 talent, worthy of being picked #1 overall if he is not a special talent? TAM is apparently leaving potential all stars on the board so they can take a good but not special player? Wouldn't they be better off trading TEX for a one of Salty/Teagarden/Laird and drafting a stud?

I think you all have great thoughts on the draft, I'm just not getting where the anti-Posey stuff is coming from. He is legit and, while not possessing the power potential of Wieters, is absolutely a candidate to become one of the better catchers in all of baseball when he eventually reaches the bigs.

Maybe if you guys could post some stuff indicating weaknesses in his game, or reasons he isn't "special" it'd help me out. Are these scouting write-ups you're reading? Articles from BA? I'm just curious. I'd like to know if I'm way off, and it seems like I must be.

[allstar1579]

I said no to Crow, Posey and Matusz.

Crow: the mechanics just scare me, looks like TJ waiting to happen.

Posey: We already have a Catcher, and drafting someone that will have good "value" to potentially trade to acquire a talent like Smoak, Beckham or Hosmer may be in 3 years makes no sense if we can just draft them now.

Matusz: I really have no problem with him, but I would prefer a bat to another pitcher at the moment, to try to get some balance in the system.

[allstar1579]

Hmmmmm. Posey is considered to be a top 5 talent in the draft but is merely above average and not a potential all star? I'm to believe Tampa is being rumored to leave a bunch of potential all stars on the board and take a merely above-average catcher just because they already have too much talent elsewhere in their system?

Wieters is only an above average bat at 1b and not a potential all star? Can someone please explain where this is coming from? Wieters is one of, if not the, best bat in all of HiA.

On what are you guys basing these opinions?

Well said buddy. Doesn't Posey project pretty favorably to Mauer? And he was a no. 1 overall pick and got some MVP votes a year or two ago. Wieters is the power guy, and Posey is the avg. guy. Nothing knocking either, they just have two different styles of playing, both just as valuable. With the way baseball has developed in the past 10 years people like to only value the sexy traits like homeruns, strikeouts, and a cannon arm. Things like bat control, a good eye for the zone, calling a good game, defense, smart baserunning, willing to do the small things to win a game and not just inflate the stats all get undervalued today.

[McNulty]

I'm going to once again point out that Posey is having a FAR superior season this year than anything that Wieters ever had in college.

If you don't believe me, look here http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1311220&postcount=19

Now, with that said, I'm not saying that Posey is a better prospect than Wieters. But its not as far as people on this board are making you think. They both have make-up that is off the charts. Wieters is a switch hitter, but Posey is an above average runner for any position. More importantly, I can tell you first hand after having watched them both in college numerous times that they are both very special players. If he's the best player available, you take him.

I'd like to know what all of this negativity towards Posey is based on. Granted, I'm not a big fan of Matusz, but I freely admit that my view is completely irrational. I'm not a fan of taking a pitcher that high.

I'm not claiming to be a professional scout by any means, but have any of you even seen Posey play on TV, much less in person? Are you simply drawing conclusions on what you have read?

I said before that I'll throw down on any bet that Posey is an All-Star catcher by the 2013 season, and I stand by that statement.

[allstar1579]

I'm going to once again point out that Posey is having a FAR superior season this year than anything that Wieters ever had in college.

If you don't believe me, look here http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1311220&postcount=19

Now, with that said, I'm not saying that Posey is a better prospect than Wieters. But its not as far as people on this board are making you think. They both have make-up that is off the charts. Wieters is a switch hitter, but Posey is an above average runner for any position. More importantly, I can tell you first hand after having watched them both in college numerous times that they are both very special players. If he's the best player available, you take him.

I'd like to know what all of this negativity towards Posey is based on. Granted, I'm not a big fan of Matusz, but I freely admit that my view is completely irrational. I'm not a fan of taking a pitcher that high.

I'm not claiming to be a professional scout by any means, but have any of you even seen Posey play on TV, much less in person? Are you simply drawing conclusions on what you have read?

I said before that I'll throw down on any bet that Posey is an All-Star catcher by the 2013 season, and I stand by that statement.

Don't get me wrong, I like Posey, and he'll be a great player for someone, worthy of going no. 1 even if there is a need like TB has....BUT...with already having Wieters, it is a waste for us to draft him. We fill other holes with other special talents out there, not stockpile one and hope for the best.

We could take a Beckham and have allstars at C and SS, instead of 2 allstar caliber guys splitting time at the same position (and anyone saying to move either one of these guys is out of their mind, half of their value comes from the position they play like the Beckhams)

[Stotle]

I'm going to once again point out that Posey is having a FAR superior season this year than anything that Wieters ever had in college.

If you don't believe me, look here http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1311220&postcount=19

Now, with that said, I'm not saying that Posey is a better prospect than Wieters. But its not as far as people on this board are making you think. They both have make-up that is off the charts. Wieters is a switch hitter, but Posey is an above average runner for any position. More importantly, I can tell you first hand after having watched them both in college numerous times that they are both very special players. If he's the best player available, you take him.

I'd like to know what all of this negativity towards Posey is based on. Granted, I'm not a big fan of Matusz, but I freely admit that my view is completely irrational. I'm not a fan of taking a pitcher that high.

I'm not claiming to be a professional scout by any means, but have any of you even seen Posey play on TV, much less in person? Are you simply drawing conclusions on what you have read?

I said before that I'll throw down on any bet that Posey is an All-Star catcher by the 2013 season, and I stand by that statement.

I tend to agree with this. All of this.

[Stotle]

Don't get me wrong, I like Posey, and he'll be a great player for someone, worthy of going no. 1 even if there is a need like TB has....BUT...with already having Wieters, it is a waste for us to draft him. We fill other holes with other special talents out there, not stockpile one and hope for the best.

We could take a Beckham and have allstars at C and SS, instead of 2 allstar caliber guys splitting time at the same position (and anyone saying to move either one of these guys is out of their mind, half of their value comes from the position they play like the Beckhams)

Do Mauer's injuries not concern you with regards to the beating Wieters's knees will be taking once he is the bigs? Just curious. When I see Mauer now struggling to stay healthy for a season, I think of Wieters and shudder. I don't want my 30 HR bat out of the lineup for a quarter of the season on average by the time he's a three year veteran.

[Greg Pappas]

Again I ask, why is Posey considered a top 5 talent, worthy of being picked #1 overall if he is not a special talent? TAM is apparently leaving potential all stars on the board so they can take a good but not special player? Wouldn't they be better off trading TEX for a one of Salty/Teagarden/Laird and drafting a stud?

I think you all have great thoughts on the draft, I'm just not getting where the anti-Posey stuff is coming from. He is legit and, while not possessing the power potential of Wieters, is absolutely a candidate to become one of the better catchers in all of baseball when he eventually reaches the bigs.

Maybe if you guys could post some stuff indicating weaknesses in his game, or reasons he isn't "special" it'd help me out. Are these scouting write-ups you're reading? Articles from BA? I'm just curious. I'd like to know if I'm way off, and it seems like I must be.

I'm actually a Posey fan, and have mentioned on numerous occasions that Posey could certainly be an all-star caliber catcher... so I'm not anti-Posey in any way, shape or form. My points against Posey are solely based on wanting other positional talent (that are team needs) that will be available when we pick.

[allstar1579]

Do Mauer's injuries not concern you with regards to the beating Wieters's knees will be taking once he is the bigs? Just curious. When I see Mauer now struggling to stay healthy for a season, I think of Wieters and shudder. I don't want my 30 HR bat out of the lineup for a quarter of the season on average by the time he's a three year veteran.

No it doesn't because injuries aren't guaranteed to anyone, and just because Mauer is, doesn't mean Wieters will be. I do agree that catchers take a huge beating, and they may have shorter careers if they remain there the entire time, but I also believe there have been guys that have had many successful power years as a catcher. I don't buy the theory that a platoon of good catchers will ever work, and I don't think that either of them reach full value if moved to a new position which there is no guarantee they would be effective.

If Posey was the only special player in this draft, then fine, no problem, but I can easily place 4 people in front of him without thinking twice (admittedly they can all be moved around), so that being said, then no I think it would be a waste to draft him when we have so many other needs.

[McNulty]

Do Mauer's injuries not concern you with regards to the beating Wieters's knees will be taking once he is the bigs? Just curious. When I see Mauer now struggling to stay healthy for a season, I think of Wieters and shudder. I don't want my 30 HR bat out of the lineup for a quarter of the season on average by the time he's a three year veteran.

I don't know if it changes things at all, but Wieters is thicker in the legs than Mauer is; much thicker. I don't know if that will make his injury risk higher or lower. I tend to think that maybe he'll be a little better with his leg strength and conditioning. Most catchers that have long careers are built like a rock. He's just a really tall rock.

With that said, I'm just as nervous as you are.

[markpolis]

No it doesn't because injuries aren't guaranteed to anyone, and just because Mauer is, doesn't mean Wieters will be. I do agree that catchers take a huge beating, and they may have shorter careers if they remain there the entire time, but I also believe there have been guys that have had many successful power years as a catcher. I don't buy the theory that a platoon of good catchers will ever work, and I don't think that either of them reach full value if moved to a new position which there is no guarantee they would be effective.

If Posey was the only special player in this draft, then fine, no problem, but I can easily place 4 people in front of him without thinking twice (admittedly they can all be moved around), so that being said, then no I think it would be a waste to draft him when we have so many other needs.

Ding, Ding, Ding... we have a winner!

Stotle, why do you fail to see this point? We drafted Wieters last year to be our franchise catcher. Do you, HONESTLY, think Joe Jordon and the Orioles are going to select Buster Posey with our #4 overall pick? That's just crazy talk. Thankfully JJ will not make that mistake.

Don't get me wrong, I am not bashing Posey. He could very well be selected #1 overall by the D-Rays. (I hope and pray he is)

Is Posey that much better than Alvarez, Tim Beckham or Matusz? Should we draft him over those players? Absolutely not. That is why I believe it would be a mistake on our part to take Posey with our pick. It's just from an organizational point of view it makes no sense.

[crawdad]

I typically just read here, but I thought I would enter the fray.

1. Catchers do not often play 150 games a year.
2. If Weiters' bat is strong enough to move to first base according to the Orioles scouting department (and he does appear to be the best bat at his level), then the Orioles may have a hole at catcher.
3. If his bat is strong enough, you would want him at another position because he would be able to give you about 30 more starts of above average offense.
4. Now, if another catcher shows up and looks to be a special player too and seems more traditional in terms of how big a catcher should be . . . then it might make sense to draft that catcher.

I think that is the point being made. If the Orioles select Posey, it might be because Weiters bat is much more developed than we here think it is.

I also think Stotle and others are not saying they want to draft Posey. They seem to want other players instead. What they are saying is that Posey would not make them mad if he is selected.

I personally don't want him and that is based on my baseless opinion of projecting catchers. I do understand why it is not the end of the world if he is selected. He is capable of being a number 1 pick and he could wind up in many all star game. He has a plus bat. He is clearly in the top five college bats in the draft and a catcher to boot. The dude has value. Not just trade value, but real value. Yes, Weiters was drafted as a catcher and would be a fine catcher, but he may be worth more to us offensively at another position. Plans can change if the situation warrants it. Refusing change just because you drafted a guy to catch is not a good excuse to automatically say no to one option.

[Stotle]

(1) No it doesn't because injuries aren't guaranteed to anyone, and just because Mauer is, doesn't mean Wieters will be. I do agree that catchers take a huge beating, and they may have shorter careers if they remain there the entire time, but I also believe there have been guys that have had many successful power years as a catcher. (2) I don't buy the theory that a platoon of good catchers will ever work, and I don't think that either of them reach full value if moved to a new position which there is no guarantee they would be effective.

If Posey was the only special player in this draft, then fine, no problem, but I can easily place 4 people in front of him without thinking twice (admittedly they can all be moved around), so that being said, then no I think it would be a waste to draft him when we have so many other needs.

(1) Mauer had no history of injury problems until he was asked to catch for full major league seasons. I looked and couldn't find anyone else 6'5" that hs stayed relatively healthy catching.

(2) I never said I wanted a platoon. I had one year in which Wieters was shifting to 1b and Posey was having his first season with the Orioles that I would start the transition. Otherwise, I think someone Wieters size should be shifted to 1b/dh sooner, rather than later.

[Stotle]

Ding, Ding, Ding... we have a winner!

Stotle, why do you fail to see this point? (1) We drafted Wieters last year to be our franchise catcher. Do you, HONESTLY, think Joe Jordon and the Orioles are going to select Buster Posey with our #4 overall pick? That's just crazy talk. Thankfully JJ will not make that mistake.

Don't get me wrong, I am not bashing Posey. He could very well be selected #1 overall by the D-Rays. (I hope and pray he is)

(2) Is Posey that much better than Alvarez, (3) Tim Beckham (4) or Matusz? (5) Should we draft him over those players? Absolutely not. That is why I believe it would be a mistake on our part to take Posey with our pick. It's just from an organizational point of view it makes no sense.

(1) False. We took Wieters because he was the best college bat in the draft -- he happens to play catcher. If Alvarez had been available last season we would have taken him the year after selecting 3b Rowell. Catcher has absolutely zero/nothing/nada to do with it. To say it does is just crazy talk.

(2) Never said he was

(3) never said he was

(4) never said he was

(5) If Jordan were to rank him ahead of any of these players, I would say "Yes" we should draft him.

If you draft Smoak, are you now saying you don't want to go after Teix? I'd imagine you'd still grab Teix and figure out what to do when both were ready for the ML. Why draft Alvarez? We have Rowell/Snyder/Costanzo and Markakis in RF. Are you switching him to 1b? What about going after Teix? I can make "blocked" arguments with everyone but the Beckhams. I guess that means we should only draft a SS?

I'd sure be sad if BAL passed on Posey to grab G-Bex and two years down the road Wieters is injured and switched to 1b anyway. It's short sighted. If you rank Posey lower, don't draft him. To avoid him because of Wieters isn't a smart way to go about drafting. TEX sure wasn't shy about trading for Saltalamacchia despite having Laird/Teagarden/Ramirez all above AA! That's because you don't turn down elite talent simply because you have some more of it at AA...

[Greg Pappas]

(1) False. We took Wieters because he was the best college bat in the draft -- he happens to play catcher. If Alvarez had been available last season we would have taken him the year after selecting 3b Rowell. Catcher has absolutely zero/nothing/nada to do with it. To say it does is just crazy talk...

You're convinced that we didn't draft Wieters to be our franchise catcher, but simply took the best college bat available. I disagree. Every site chat, every scouting report, every mention of Wieters has indicated that he's got All-Star potential as a catcher. His defensive mechanics, his arm, his game-calling, his leadership... all plus. In my view it was those reasons coupled with his quality power bat were the reasons we drafted him.

This debate has gone on and on, and I've read every word that you've said, and I believe that I follow your line of thinking... and while your points that Wieters may be a risk for injury because of his size is pretty well founded, I believe that scouts are convinced that he'll be just fine. If not, if he suffers an obvious catching related injury, you would be proved to be right (which wouldn't surprise me :D).

Mark and I obviously see things differently than you do, but let's all hope that Wieters is able to buck the historical trend and stick behind the plate. This has been a fun debate in my view. :)

[crawdad]

You're convinced that we didn't draft Wieters to be our franchise catcher, but simply took the best college bat available. I disagree. Every site chat, every scouting report, every mention of Wieters has indicated that he's got All-Star potential as a catcher. His defensive mechanics, his arm, his game-calling, his leadership... all plus. In my view it was those reasons coupled with his quality power bat were the reasons we drafted him.

This debate has gone on and on, and I've read every word that you've said, and I believe that I follow your line of thinking... and while your points that Wieters may be a risk for injury because of his size is pretty well founded, I believe that scouts are convinced that he'll be just fine. If not, if he suffers an obvious catching related injury, you would be proved to be right (which wouldn't surprise me :D).

Mark and I obviously see things differently than you do, but let's all hope that Wieters is able to buck the historical trend and stick behind the plate. This has been a fun debate in my view. :)

Ok, you guys seem to be misunderstanding each other.

1. Weiters can be an All-Star catcher.
2. If his bat is really this good . . . he could be an All-Star 1B.
3. If the benefit of having him as a catcher for 120 games does not outweigh having him play another 30 as he would at another position . . . then it makes sense for him to go to a different position.
4. If we have another All-Star catcher, that benefit is clearly reduced.

A "just fine" catcher catches about 120-140 games a season. A "just fine" first baseman plays 150.

[JimPalmerJr]

So who was the best college bat in last year's draft ?

I agree with most of Stotle's points about catching being an injury prone, career shortening position. It's a position that is glove first, bat is a bonus.
If Snyder's bat doesn't get going I would put him back behind the plate next year. Costanza should already be there.


That said, I wouldn't draft Posey unless these 2 guys were off the board:

Alvarez
Smoak

Posey would be a toss-up with Matusz and T Beckham.

I'd probalby go Matusz due to the lack of lefties in the system
- yes, I'm writing both Loewen and Patton off until they show otherwise

I'd then trade from the excess of right handed pitching to get a SS, bat, etc.

Disappointed list is below:

Hosner is too young ( why T Bex is a tier 2 in my opinion )
G Beckham is too small to be a top five ( or even top 10 pick )
Crow - got plenty of hard throwing right handed pitchers
Anybody else

[crawdad]

I think Snyder's arm is toast and a move back behind the plate is unlikely.

I could be wrong on that.

[markpolis]

(1) False. We took Wieters because he was the best college bat in the draft -- he happens to play catcher. If Alvarez had been available last season we would have taken him the year after selecting 3b Rowell. Catcher has absolutely zero/nothing/nada to do with it. To say it does is just crazy talk.

If you honestly think Wieters playing catcher had nothing to do with the Orioles drafting him, well then, no sense debating with a crazy man. ;)

Are you stating teams draft players based solely on their hitting skills? Now that is crazy. :confused: Would TB be considering drafting Posey #1 overall if he was still playing SS? Absolutely not.

Greg and I believe Wieters will be catching 140 games a season for at least the next 5-7 years. Does Posey's bat project enough for him to play elsewhere? If he were still playing SS would he be considered a Top 5 pick?

I don't get your whole signing Tex argument? You are the one advocating the move of Wieters to first, not me. Are you going to sign Tex to a $100mil contract to DH? The whole Tex signing thing is an entirely different debate.

You are basing your entire argument on the fact Wieters is 6'5" and can't sustain a career behind the plate. Do you believe because something has never been done, it can't be done? That's pretty narrow-minded thinking.

There have been plenty of tall catchers who have had long careers behind the plate. Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, Jason Varitek, Javy Lopez (6'3"), Bob Boone, Lance Parrish, Bob Melvin (6'4"), Sandy Alomar (6'5") played the position for over 10 years in the majors.

[Stotle]

If you honestly think Wieters playing catcher had nothing to do with the Orioles drafting him, well then, no sense debating with a crazy man. ;)

Are you stating teams draft players based solely on their hitting skills? Now that is crazy. :confused: Would TB be considering drafting Posey #1 overall if he was still playing SS? Absolutely not.

Greg and I believe Wieters will be catching 140 games a season for at least the next 5-7 years. Does Posey's bat project enough for him to play elsewhere? If he were still playing SS would he be considered a Top 5 pick?

I don't get your whole signing Tex argument? You are the one advocating the move of Wieters to first, not me. Are you going to sign Tex to a $100mil contract to DH? The whole Tex signing thing is an entirely different debate.

You are basing your entire argument on the fact Wieters is 6'5" and can't sustain a career behind the plate. Do you believe because something has never been done, it can't be done? That's pretty narrow-minded thinking.

There have been plenty of tall catchers who have had long careers behind the plate. Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, Jason Varitek, Javy Lopez (6'3"), Bob Boone, Lance Parrish, Bob Melvin (6'4"), Sandy Alomar (6'5") played the position for over 10 years in the majors.

Craw has summed up my position prett well. I don't think the bat is the sole issue in drafting positional talent, but it's the driving factor, considering the frequency with which players change positions. I guess the best way to put it is:

1. Bat
2. Is his defense passable (meaning will he be able to play a position at the ML-level)
3. Is his defense good (meaning will he play a valuable position at the ML-level)
4. Is his defense elite (meaning will he play a valuable position well or a less-valuable position very well at the ML-level)

Games played for Sandy Alomar (the 6'5" you mention):
90 -- 132
91 -- 51
92 -- 89
93 -- 64
94 -- 80
95 -- 66
96 -- 127
97 -- 125
98 -- 117
99 -- 37
00 -- 97
01 -- 70
02 -- 89
03 -- 75
04 -- 50
05 -- 46
06 -- 46
07 -- 8

That doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence. You?

Bob Melvin (6'4")
85 -- 41
86 -- 89
87 -- 84
88 -- 92
89 -- 85
90 -- 93
91 -- 79
92 -- 32
93 -- 77
94 -- 20

Javy Lopez (6'4")
94 -- 80
95 -- 100
96 -- 138
97 -- 123
98 -- 133
99 -- 65
00 -- 134
01 -- 128
02 -- 109
03 -- 129
04 -- 150
05 -- 103
06 -- 94

This is a little better, but still not optimal for your middle of the order bat.

The other catchers you listed I see listed as 6'3" or smaller (using baseball-reference). I think the general idea that shifting Wieters to get an extra 25-30 games out of him is still sound reasoning. I ultimately would rather have Alvarez, T-Bex, Smoak, Matusz than Posey, but I would not fault Jordan for selecting Posey if the O's decide Posey is the best talent.

[Stotle]

You're convinced that we didn't draft Wieters to be our franchise catcher, but simply took the best college bat available. I disagree. Every site chat, every scouting report, every mention of Wieters has indicated that he's got All-Star potential as a catcher. His defensive mechanics, his arm, his game-calling, his leadership... all plus. In my view it was those reasons coupled with his quality power bat were the reasons we drafted him.

This debate has gone on and on, and I've read every word that you've said, and I believe that I follow your line of thinking... and while your points that Wieters may be a risk for injury because of his size is pretty well founded, I believe that scouts are convinced that he'll be just fine. If not, if he suffers an obvious catching related injury, you would be proved to be right (which wouldn't surprise me :D).

Mark and I obviously see things differently than you do, but let's all hope that Wieters is able to buck the historical trend and stick behind the plate. This has been a fun debate in my view. :)

I am not betting against Wieters. I am just putting forth an argument as to why Posey would not be a disaster of a pick.

This has been fun. I like being called crazy because it makes me examine my stance and really question what I'm saying.

[Stotle]

Greg and I believe Wieters will be catching 140 games a season for at least the next 5-7 years. Does Posey's bat project enough for him to play elsewhere? If he were still playing SS would he be considered a Top 5 pick?

Well, if Wieters were to rest every sixth game he'd only play 135 games, so I think expecting 140 for 5-7 years is aggressive. Posey's bat projects everywhere that isn't a traditional "power" position. He could be a top 5 pick, but I can't say with certainty without putting him at another position and seeing what happens. Maybe he's more rested as a LF and hits even better? Who knows? As has already been stated, Posey is having a better offensive year than Wieters ever had in college.


I don't get your whole signing Tex argument? You are the one advocating the move of Wieters to first, not me. Are you going to sign Tex to a $100mil contract to DH? The whole Tex signing thing is an entirely different debate.

Well, I think the Teix argument is a silly one, but one you are essentially making with Wieters. I think even the best products in the draft are far from sure things, considering baseball draftees are so much more difficult to project than draftees in other sports. To say that Wieters is the future after amonth of HiA ball (don't take that as a slam on Matt) seems premature. What if Wieters was available again in this draft at #4? Would we pass on him? I don't know, but I wouldn't make that decision based on who I have at AA (which is where Wieters should be by the first week of June).


You are basing your entire argument on the fact Wieters is 6'5" and can't sustain a career behind the plate. Do you believe because something has never been done, it can't be done? That's pretty narrow-minded thinking.



I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm saying it's highly unlikely. That isn't narrow-minded, it's taking a fact set and reaching a conclusion. Greg put it best when he said he's "hoping Wieters can buck the historical trend and stay behind the plate". I hope he can, too. But how can I be upset if Jordan and AM decide they don't want to risk it and draft Posey to catch and ultimately slide Wieters to 1b/dh?

[allstar1579]

(1) Mauer had no history of injury problems until he was asked to catch for full major league seasons. I looked and couldn't find anyone else 6'5" that hs stayed relatively healthy catching.

(2) I never said I wanted a platoon. I had one year in which Wieters was shifting to 1b and Posey was having his first season with the Orioles that I would start the transition. Otherwise, I think someone Wieters size should be shifted to 1b/dh sooner, rather than later.

No, that's fine, I said all along, I get where you are coming from. I just don't think that because he is 6'5 he will necessarily be more of an injury risk. If we start him at catcher and he starts missing chunks of time because of injury, then you are right, we should look at moving him. But don't draft him as a catcher (a chance at one of the best ever) and then move him for fear of injury before he even gets hurt.

If we give him a few seasons, and then injuries pop up, we can look at another offensive catcher then, but if you draft another all-star catcher, it doesn't alleviate injury concerns, now it just means we have another great bat we have to worry about getting hurt like you said. Why not take a guy at 1B or SS who has less injury risk with an equal bat. I wouldn't argue with you at all if Posey's bat was that far and away better than everyone else's but it's really not. Before this season he was thought of as a good player, not a no. 1 pick, he is a late riser, much like G. Beckham, who you have a problem with. I will never say Posey might not be worth taking at no. 1 because he is an offensive catcher, and they are rare, but to say you don't think there are 4 other offensive products this year that are at least as good if not better than Posey with the bat?

[Stotle]

No, that's fine, I said all along, I get where you are coming from. I just don't think that because he is 6'5 he will necessarily be more of an injury risk. If we start him at catcher and he starts missing chunks of time because of injury, then you are right, we should look at moving him. But don't draft him as a catcher (a chance at one of the best ever) and then move him for fear of injury before he even gets hurt.

If we give him a few seasons, and then injuries pop up, we can look at another offensive catcher then, but if you draft another all-star catcher, it doesn't alleviate injury concerns, now it just means we have another great bat we have to worry about getting hurt like you said. Why not take a guy at 1B or SS who has less injury risk with an equal bat. I wouldn't argue with you at all if Posey's bat was that far and away better than everyone else's but it's really not. Before this season he was thought of as a good player, not a no. 1 pick, he is a late riser, much like G. Beckham, who you have a problem with. I will never say Posey might not be worth taking at no. 1 because he is an offensive catcher, and they are rare, but to say you don't think there are 4 other offensive products this year that are at least as good if not better than Posey with the bat?

My top offensive bats would be Alvarez/Smoak/Alonso/Hosmer/Posey/T-Bex/G-Bex. Alonso gets dinged for defense, Hosmer gets dinged for $$, leaving Alvarez/Smoak/Posey/the Beckhams. I see merit in selcting all but Gordon at #4.

[allstar1579]

My top offensive bats would be Alvarez/Smoak/Alonso/Hosmer/Posey/T-Bex/G-Bex. Alonso gets dinged for defense, Hosmer gets dinged for $$, leaving Alvarez/Smoak/Posey/the Beckhams. I see merit in selcting all but Gordon at #4.

I agree with you. I would look at positional need a bit too though and put Tbex above Posey, and Gordon slightly below him because of risk/reward.

[Stotle]

I agree with you. I would look at positional need a bit too though and put Tbex above Posey, and Gordon slightly below him because of risk/reward.

Yeah, on overall package I would go Alvarez/T-Bex/Posey/Smoak. On bat alone, I go Alvarez/Smoak/Posey/T-Bex solely because I'm not sure whether the power ultimately comes for Tim. He doesn't need to be Tejada, but it would be nice to get 15-20 HR.

[McNulty]

Can I interject a thought here? I understand both sides of the argument as far as value behind the plate for 120 games or so versus a first basemen for 150. But the simple fact is that an offensive catcher along the lines of, say, Victor Martinez back there for even 100 games is a ridiculous advantage for any team. First base is where you shove a bat that can't play anywhere else (usually). We have the luxury of the DH for that purpose however, but this brings me to my main point.

The Pirates (with Doumit) and Indians (with Martinez) are currently changing the mold of how catchers are being "platooned" shall we say throughout the course of the season. The Indians put Vic at first about once every 2 weeks last year, and DH about the same rate. They also gave him a total off day about once every 10 days. The Pirates are now coming around to seeing the value of having Doumit back there, inspite of having another good catcher in Paulino.

My point is, that if we are creative and judicious in our handling of his playing time, there's no reason that Wieters shouldn't be able to catch 120-130 games a year, and start a total of 145-155. I think that is the absolute best way to not only maximize his value, but minimize the injury risks.

I'm with you Stot, that it wouldn't be nearly the disaster everyone thinks if we did pick Posey, but I can't see a scenario where it would be justified. Wieters was most definately picked to be the franchise catcher, regardless of whether or not he was the best bat in the draft. He is a really special player (Keith Law said a once a decade talent), but certainly the O's have a plan if his body can't hack it behind the plate. He would still be a very valuable player to us at first, but not nearly on the scale as behind the plate.

The dual catcher notion is certainly an interesting debate, but I can't see how anyone would do that knowing that Smoak is, in my mind, clearly a better bat, a switch hitter, and plays great defense at first.

[Stotle]

Can I interject a thought here? I understand both sides of the argument as far as value behind the plate for 120 games or so versus a first basemen for 150. But the simple fact is that an offensive catcher along the lines of, say, Victor Martinez back there for even 100 games is a ridiculous advantage for any team. First base is where you shove a bat that can't play anywhere else (usually). We have the luxury of the DH for that purpose however, but this brings me to my main point.

The Pirates (with Doumit) and Indians (with Martinez) are currently changing the mold of how catchers are being "platooned" shall we say throughout the course of the season. The Indians put Vic at first about once every 2 weeks last year, and DH about the same rate. They also gave him a total off day about once every 10 days. The Pirates are now coming around to seeing the value of having Doumit back there, inspite of having another good catcher in Paulino.

My point is, that if we are creative and judicious in our handling of his playing time, there's no reason that Wieters shouldn't be able to catch 120-130 games a year, and start a total of 145-155. I think that is the absolute best way to not only maximize his value, but minimize the injury risks.

I'm with you Stot, that it wouldn't be nearly the disaster everyone thinks if we did pick Posey, but I can't see a scenario where it would be justified. Wieters was most definately picked to be the franchise catcher, regardless of whether or not he was the best bat in the draft. He is a really special player (Keith Law said a once a decade talent), but certainly the O's have a plan if his body can't hack it behind the plate. He would still be a very valuable player to us at first, but not nearly on the scale as behind the plate.

The dual catcher notion is certainly an interesting debate, but I can't see how anyone would do that knowing that Smoak is, in my mind, clearly a better bat, a switch hitter, and plays great defense at first.

I agree. Plus, Smoak may be athletic enough to handle LF, which means he doesn't preclude grabbing an established veteran at 1b. Personally, I can not see getting Posey, but I would not be upset if the Orioles as an organization arrived at the decision that he was the best player there.

Good points, McNutty [sic] ;)

[McNulty]

I agree. Plus, Smoak may be athletic enough to handle LF, which means he doesn't preclude grabbing an established veteran at 1b. Personally, I can not see getting Posey, but I would not be upset if the Orioles as an organization arrived at the decision that he was the best player there.

Good points, McNutty [sic] ;)

I've been waiting for someone to call me McNutty. You were the first, so rep to you.

[allstar1579]

I have to admit, this has been one of the best debates I have seen on the Hangout in my years stalking and then posting here. Nice to have some other guys I can compare analysis on minor league guys and prospects.

[McNulty]

I have to admit, this has been one of the best debates I have seen on the Hangout in my years stalking and then posting here. Nice to have some other guys I can compare analysis on minor league guys and prospects.

I agree. There is a weird little niche over here in the Amateur Draft threads with about 10 or so of us.

I certainly don't agree with everyone, but no one could ever say that the options aren't at least educated here.

[markpolis]

I agree. There is a weird little niche over here in the Amateur Draft threads with about 10 or so of us.

I certainly don't agree with everyone, but no one could ever say that the options aren't at least educated here.

I agree. Stotle makes some very good arguments and I truly appreciate his knowledge and insight.

At this point I guess it's safe to say we agree to disagree. But the debate has been fun.

[Stotle]

Agreed. It's been a fun talk. Let's hope Wieters stays healthy and none of this actually has to play out.

[420gamewinners]

Hello everybody. Love your work Greg. I have been reading for a long time.
The O's will pick one of two: Smoak or Matuza from what I have learned.:clap3:

[markpolis]

Hello everybody. Love your work Greg. I have been reading for a long time.
The O's will pick one of two: Smoak or Matuza from what I have learned.:clap3:

And you have learned this from a credible person? If so, I'm really surprised they wouldn't take Alvarez if he is available.

[Greg Pappas]

Hello everybody. Love your work Greg. I have been reading for a long time.
The O's will pick one of two: Smoak or Matuza from what I have learned.:clap3:

Welcome to posting heaven! LOL

Thanks for the kind mention. Did you mean that by reading the posts here and elsewhere that you have determined we'll take either Matusz or Smoak, OR did you mean that you have an inside source or such that you've gathered that info from?

[Stotle]

I would find it hard to believe BAL had settled on one of two people this early on.

[Answerman]

I have read this whole thread and wondered why nobody mentioned picking Posey as a 1B. I saw him play recently in person and he is clearly a man among boys at the highest level of college ball. I would love to have him at 1b and spelling Weiters 30 times per year. Between C, 1B and DH, they both should get 600 ABs per year. Posey is a former SS, so playing 1B should be a breeze. Here is the real question:

If Posey was playing 1B all this year at FSU, would he be considered a top five player?

Would love to hear Greg's analysis of that question.

[allstar1579]

I have read this whole thread and wondered why nobody mentioned picking Posey as a 1B. I saw him play recently in person and he is clearly a man among boys at the highest level of college ball. I would love to have him at 1b and spelling Weiters 30 times per year. Between C, 1B and DH, they both should get 600 ABs per year. Posey is a former SS, so playing 1B should be a breeze. Here is the real question:

If Posey was playing 1B all this year at FSU, would he be considered a top five player?

Would love to hear Greg's analysis of that question.

That all depends. Not all players take to moving to new positions. They may be able to get by doing it, but might decrease their productivity. There is no promise that if he had moved to 1B that he would be putting up the numbers he is. Also, Posey is more of a high avg. hitter, looks like a prototypical #2 hitter, not the power guy that you need or expect at 1B. There are just too many variables when there are already options like Smoak, Hosmer, and Alonso that already play 1B and have shown to have the power numbers for a corner INF position.

[markpolis]

I have read this whole thread and wondered why nobody mentioned picking Posey as a 1B. I saw him play recently in person and he is clearly a man among boys at the highest level of college ball. I would love to have him at 1b and spelling Weiters 30 times per year. Between C, 1B and DH, they both should get 600 ABs per year. Posey is a former SS, so playing 1B should be a breeze. Here is the real question:

If Posey was playing 1B all this year at FSU, would he be considered a top five player?

Would love to hear Greg's analysis of that question.

His bat does not project well for a first basemen. So to answer your question, I would say no, he would not be considered a top 5 pick if he played 1B.

[markpolis]

That all depends. Not all players take to moving to new positions. They may be able to get by doing it, but might decrease their productivity. There is no promise that if he had moved to 1B that he would be putting up the numbers he is. Also, Posey is more of a high avg. hitter, looks like a prototypical #2 hitter, not the power guy that you need or expect at 1B. There are just too many variables when there are already options like Smoak, Hosmer, and Alonso that already play 1B and have shown to have the power numbers for a corner INF position.

Agreed. The same thing can be said about moving Wieters to 1B. We don't how well he would adjust to the position.

[McNulty]

I have read this whole thread and wondered why nobody mentioned picking Posey as a 1B. I saw him play recently in person and he is clearly a man among boys at the highest level of college ball. I would love to have him at 1b and spelling Weiters 30 times per year. Between C, 1B and DH, they both should get 600 ABs per year. Posey is a former SS, so playing 1B should be a breeze. Here is the real question:

If Posey was playing 1B all this year at FSU, would he be considered a top five player?

Would love to hear Greg's analysis of that question.

I think if he had stayed at shortstop, he'd still be a top 5 worthy pick. Its been two years since any of us have seen him there, but my guess is that he could stick there (from what I recall seeing).

I think he and Beckham were about the same defensively.

[Greg Pappas]

I have read this whole thread and wondered why nobody mentioned picking Posey as a 1B. I saw him play recently in person and he is clearly a man among boys at the highest level of college ball. I would love to have him at 1b and spelling Weiters 30 times per year. Between C, 1B and DH, they both should get 600 ABs per year. Posey is a former SS, so playing 1B should be a breeze. Here is the real question:

If Posey was playing 1B all this year at FSU, would he be considered a top five player?

Would love to hear Greg's analysis of that question.

Thanks for thinking of me.

I love these sort of 'thinking outside the box' ideas. However, Posey's ability to play 1B defensively and the power generally required to stay at 1B would be questioned. I do think as a former SS that he would probably handle 1B without too many problems. I'm of the opinion that Posey will hit about .300 with 15-20 HR's per year, which is outstanding for a catcher or SS, but not quite what most teams look for in a first baseman. I love Posey as a catcher and believe his BEST value remains there, and he projects as a potential all-star caliber catcher.

With Smoak & Hosmer as excellent hitters and gifted defensive first basemen, and with Pedro Alvarez considered as an option there as well, there would be better choices available at pick #4.

So... would Posey be a top 5 pick if he were a 1B? I think not, but he would be a first rounder, perhaps a mid-first rounder. I hope this helps. :)

[420gamewinners]

And you have learned this from a credible person? If so, I'm really surprised they wouldn't take Alvarez if he is available.[/QUOTE]

Sure the O's the would take Alvarez if they had 1st or 2nd pick, but he and T.Beckham are gone by the 4th pick.

[420gamewinners]

Welcome to posting heaven! LOL

Thanks for the kind mention. Did you mean that by reading the posts here and elsewhere that you have determined we'll take either Matusz or Smoak, OR did you mean that you have an inside source or such that you've gathered that info from?

warehouse;)

[Greg Pappas]

warehouse;)

Reading into what you've posted it sems that you are implying that the Orioles FO has determined that with both Alvarez & TBeckham gone, we will likely be choosing between Matusz and Smoak, and that this is information you've gathered directly from an inside source. Correct?

[LookinUp]

warehouse;)


Reading into what you've posted it sems that you are implying that the Orioles FO has determined that with both Alvarez & TBeckham gone, we will likely be choosing between Matusz and Smoak, and that this is information you've gathered directly from an inside source. Correct?


Color me skeptical. Anyone can claim to have a source. Remember the Cubs fan?

[Stotle]

Again, doubtful any team has sorted out who they are picking yet...

[420gamewinners]

Reading into what you've posted it sems that you are implying that the Orioles FO has determined that with both Alvarez & TBeckham gone, we will likely be choosing between Matusz and Smoak, and that this is information you've gathered directly from an inside source. Correct?

Sorry for just getting back with you Greg, PC problems. My buddy has passed this on to me. Remember this is his opinion and there is no guarantee what teams with picks ahead of the O's will do. Just what he thinks they will do. Also remember, do not spill a drink on your laptop.:cussing: