View Full Version : Smoak or Hosmer?
You're sitting there with the 4th pick and this is your choice. Does Hosmer have any significanat advantage over Smoak? Is there any reason to take Hosmer over Smoak?
Mashed Potatoes
05-11-2008, 08:55 PM
I'm a sucker for potential, even though Hosmer probably wouldn't be the smartest move.
Hutman
05-11-2008, 09:53 PM
I love Smoak and I'd be thrilled if we nabbed him, but Hosmer has the higher cieling then Smoak. Smoak will be here faster and he's a bit safer but Hosmer might be the best HS hitter in the last decade.
McNulty
05-11-2008, 10:02 PM
Smoak is a switch hitter who plays great defense. Can't say either of those things about Hosmer. Hosmer is younger though, and has a probably has a tick more upside, but I don't think that I'd want them taking the gamble on him.
OSfanfromCT
05-11-2008, 10:10 PM
I just think Smoak is a little bit more of a sure thing, plus he'll most probably be ready to contribute earlier. And, given the lack of our positional depth right now, we need bats that can move through the system quickly.
Sports Guy
05-11-2008, 10:12 PM
Do you take the closer to the majors, surer thing or take the higher ceiling potential stud?
That is a great question.
Personally, i think the Orioles are so obsessed with the idea of signing Tex, that they won't draft Smoak(i know he could DH and that we might not get Tex..just speculating).
OSfanfromCT
05-11-2008, 10:16 PM
Do you take the closer to the majors, surer thing or take the higher ceiling potential stud?
That is a great question.
Personally, i think the Orioles are so obsessed with the idea of signing Tex, that they won't draft Smoak(i know he could DH and that we might not get Tex..just speculating).
SG, I know that you are speculating, but do you think that's the right mentality? If Smoak is still available, and Alvarez has already been taken, I personally think we have to jump on that regardless of Tex, especially since signability will always be an issue w/ a Boras client that is also a star.
Greg Pappas
05-11-2008, 10:17 PM
Smoak is a switch hitter who plays great defense. Can't say either of those things about Hosmer. Hosmer is younger though, and has a probably has a tick more upside, but I don't think that I'd want them taking the gamble on him.
Actually Hosmer is an outstanding defender, and projects to be better than Smoak. But... EH doesn't switch-hit... that's true. ;)
Greg Pappas
05-11-2008, 10:37 PM
You're sitting there with the 4th pick and this is your choice. Does Hosmer have any significanat advantage over Smoak? Is there any reason to take Hosmer over Smoak?
Man... these prospect vs. prospect polls are tough. LOL
I love both of these players, and with Smoak pouring it on and alleviating doubts it has made the decision even tougher. I will be excited to get either of them, but IF I had to make the call... I'd go with Hosmer by the slimmest of margins. Again, I want both... please? :D
Re: Hosmer is in the discussion as the best High School hitter of the past decade or so. My research has shown a good success rate for 1st round HS Hitters, and actually the best success rate for top 10 picks among the College Hitters and HS/College Pitchers. Is he more risky than the collegian star? Hmmmm... one may make that assumption, but I see Hosmer as having the superior ceiling, and I also think he'll match Smoak's career even if he falls short of his ceiling.
I think Smoak will be a .285-.290 hitter, .875'ish OPS, with 30'ish HR's and good RBI production. That's very good.
I see Hosmer as a .300+ hitter, .900+ OPS, with 35-40'ish (if not better) HR's and very good RBI production.
Both are very good defenders to boot. I'll be happy with either. :)
clarence
05-11-2008, 10:42 PM
I don't have the patience for another high school first rounder, we already have Snyder and Rowell. They are both still at least two years away if they ever make it. I take Smoak. If we knew we were going to get Teixeira, I still don't take a high school first baseman.
McNulty
05-11-2008, 10:44 PM
Actually Hosmer is an outstanding defender, and projects to be better than Smoak. But... EH doesn't switch-hit... that's true. ;)
Really? What the hell was I thinking there? Where did I get it in my head that he wasn't a great gloveman?
Geez, I haven't blown it like that in a while. :)
Greg Pappas
05-11-2008, 10:52 PM
Really? What the hell was I thinking there? Where did I get it in my head that he wasn't a great gloveman?
Geez, I haven't blown it like that in a while. :)
No worries... It's not that common for a HS kid with a great bat to be great defensively, but that just make Hosmer all the more enticing. Great bat, great glove. Sweet. :)
Again, this is just a question. If Hosmer is generally considered the best HS bat of the last decade, a decade which included the Uptons among others, wouldn't he be the consensus top pick in a draft where most say that there is no clear cut number one pick?
Stotle
05-12-2008, 08:11 AM
Again, this is just a question. If Hosmer is generally considered the best HS bat of the last decade, a decade which included the Uptons among others, wouldn't he be the consensus top pick in a draft where most say that there is no clear cut number one pick?
He plays 1b. If you give $6mio to a stud HS SS, and the bat doesn't fully pan out, you have three other "tools" that can be potentially superior at the ML-level with the Uptons -- Speed, Arm, Fielding.
If you give Hosmer $5.5mio, and his bat doesn't fully pan out, you have a 1b that fields well "for a 1b", runs well "for a 1b" and throws well "for a 1b". Hosmer isn't the all around player the Uptons were in HS, and he's not the all around player T-Bex is this year.
Three Run Homer
05-13-2008, 09:58 AM
I would take Hosmer, and in fact I think that's who the O's SHOULD take, unless Alvarez somehow slips down to #4. I know the organization needs a shortstop in the worst way, but my gut instincts are that Tim Beckham is never going to hit, and that Hosmer is going to be a special hitter.
Greg Pappas
05-13-2008, 10:15 AM
Again, this is just a question. If Hosmer is generally considered the best HS bat of the last decade, a decade which included the Uptons among others, wouldn't he be the consensus top pick in a draft where most say that there is no clear cut number one pick?
Also, I never said Hosmer was the best bat of the last decade, but merely that he is in the discussion.
Stotle touched on it... Hosmer isn't in the same universe athletically that the Uptons were/are, nor does he play a prime position like they did (SS) when drafted.
Hutman
05-13-2008, 10:30 AM
Keith Law just put up his list of the top 30 prospects. Since its Insider material I'll share that Smoak is 3 and Hosmer is 5. Very interesting rankings.