Keith Law Chat - Thursday PM

[Double062]

I'll update as I read and will focus on the Top guys and Orioles questions:

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Shoshana (Chapel Hill): Who do you see the Orioles taking? Any chance T. Beckham falls to them? At some point they need middle infield prospects, are their any currently in the system that I'm missing?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:08 PM ET ) Definitely a chance, if the Pirates take Alvarez. I saw T-Becks take BP yesterday, and four teams were represented - Pittsburgh, Baltimore (Joe Jordan was there), SF, and Florida.
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Jonathan (GA): If you could have one player from this upcoming draft, regardless of money, who would it be?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:10 PM ET ) Tim Beckham.

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Greg (Rock Hill, SC): If you were the Pirates, who would you take with the second pick? And don't even think about saying a pitcher...Us bucco fans have seen those work out so well the last 10 years!

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:17 PM ET ) If, as expected, Tampa takes Posey, I'd take Tim Beckham. If Tampa takes Beckham, I'd probably just take Posey.

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Brett (WI): Keith, if Matusz is "the surest of sure things" in this draft (someone else's words), then why isn't he getting more interest from the Rays at #1? The absence of a clear cut #1 is what is leading them to Posey, so I thought Matusz would be of interest from them as well. Is their need of a catcher greater than another talented arm in that organization?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:19 PM ET ) Because he's not the surest of sure things. He doesn't pitch with his fastball, and his delivery isn't pretty. I'm not sure where the quote's from, but I don't see him that way, and I don't think I've talked to any scout who does either.

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Andrew (MN): Is Wieters catching for the Orioles in 2010?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:04 PM ET ) Sometime in 2009.

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RGG (NYC): Daniel Cabrera has figured it out; True or False?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:13 PM ET ) How about "he's figuring it out." Getting control was step one, but that's not the whole picture.

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Mark DC: Keith: I think it is essential for the Orioles to sign Texierra next year even if they pay a bit more. Your thoughts.

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:36 PM ET ) No, a team that's that far away from contention shouldn't be going for top-tier FAs.

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[Sports Guy]

If Beckham or Alvarez fall to us(pref Becks), that will be 2 years in a row a gift has fallen in our lap...Getting either of them would be great and if we got Becks, that would be amazing, whether he stays at SS or not.

[Mackus]

If Beckham or Alvarez fall to us(pref Becks), that will be 2 years in a row a gift has fallen in our lap...Getting either of them would be great and if we got Becks, that would be amazing, whether he stays at SS or not.I agree, either of those two would be great. I'd prefer Alvarez.

I'd also be thrilled with Smoak. If we get and of Alvarez, Smoak, or Beckham (which seems like a certainty at this point) I'll be very, very happy.

[markpolis]

I agree, either of those two would be great. I'd prefer Alvarez.

I'd also be thrilled with Smoak. If we get and of Alvarez, Smoak, or Beckham (which seems like a certainty at this point) I'll be very, very happy.

Agreed. As of now, it looks like Alvarez or Tim Beckham will be available with our pick.

[LookinUp]

Agreed. As of now, it looks like Alvarez or Tim Beckham will be available with our pick.

Yeah, under Law's scenario, it looks like Posey could go 1, Beckham 2, and then it's up to KC. I'd guess they'll take Matusz or Crow though. That would be pretty sweet for the O's.

[DennisTheOsFan]

As much as I'd like to hope we'll have a shot at Alvarez or Tim Beckham at 4, I just can't see Tampa taking Buster Posey with the 1st pick. Keith Law even says its "expected".

Maybe I'm just way off here, but could a solid defensive, gap hitting Catcher go #1 when there are other bigger fishes to choose from?

I guess Tampa could be picking out of need since they have good positional prospects around the diamond in their minor leagues--and if that's the case, I can see it happening. But otherwise, I don't see Posey as the top choice in this draft.

[allstar1579]

As much as I'd like to hope we'll have a shot at Alvarez or Tim Beckham at 4, I just can't see Tampa taking Buster Posey with the 1st pick. Keith Law even says its "expected".

Maybe I'm just way off here, but could a solid defensive, gap hitting Catcher go #1 when there are other bigger fishes to choose from?

I guess Tampa could be picking out of need since they have good positional prospects around the diamond in their minor leagues--and if that's the case, I can see it happening. But otherwise, I don't see Posey as the top choice in this draft.

With not many holes to fill in their lineup, a college, potential gold glove catcher, with a highly developed bat (not going to hit 30 HR a year, but could challenge for a batting title) is a great pick for the Rays. There are "sexier" picks out there, but complete package, Posey is a wonderful top 5 pick, and would be their starting catcher by 2010 IMO.

[bigbird]

If Beckham or Alvarez fall to us(pref Becks), that will be 2 years in a row a gift has fallen in our lap...Getting either of them would be great and if we got Becks, that would be amazing, whether he stays at SS or not.

I just hope we don't go for a pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

Sounds like best case scenario for us is TB taking either one of the pitchers or Posey #1...If that happens, Tim B or Alvarez should be there at #4.

[Frobby]

This is a great year to be sitting at no. 4. There will be a couple of very good options, it appears, regardless of what happens with 1-3. That said, I have a very strong preference to draft a hitter, as our pitching is just stacked.

[baltimoriole]

Yeah, he's good enough to justify as the #1 overall pick, plus Tampa is just stacked everywhere in the field and have solid pitching up and down the minors with a few real good starters on the MLB level. The only whole in the entire organization is C.

[JimPalmerJr]

If Tampa is so loaded, why would they not take either of the high school players ( Hosner or T Beckham ) ?

These guys have the highest ceiling in the draft, with the biggest downside being the length of time until they hit the majors.

[Sports Guy]

If Tampa is so loaded, why would they not take either of the high school players ( Hosner or T Beckham ) ?

These guys have the highest ceiling in the draft, with the biggest downside being the length of time until they hit the majors.

I think they will take Beckham but their system is not strong in catching and that is why they may go with Posey.

I do think they will pass on Alvarez.

[dcterp]

Interesting thing about Alvarez is that I remember quotes from last year from baseball people saying that he would have gone first in the 2007 draft over his teammate Price. I would jump for joy if we get Beckham but my first choice is Alvarez.

[RZNJ]

He's obviously very high on Tim Beckham and not quite so high on Brian Matusz. I hadn't really heard anything negative about Matusz before. Sounds like law doesn't like his mechanics or his style of pitching. Makes me think a little more.

[ChaosLex]

Matusz has been linked to the Pirates in the past. I'll be surprised if he's not selected with their pick.

[SevisonJN]

He's obviously very high on Tim Beckham and not quite so high on Brian Matusz. I hadn't really heard anything negative about Matusz before. Sounds like law doesn't like his mechanics or his style of pitching. Makes me think a little more.

I have heard the Matusz comments before from insiders other than Law. If Beckham or the Vandy 3B/1B is there, then I think we go with one of them. The pitching depth in the minors looks real good. I would be tempted to use 15-20 picks on 1B/3B/2B/SS in this draft. Try to play a numbers game that AM likes to use with pitchers. I can't speak for anyone here, but Alvarez at first sounds like a much cheaper long-term alternative to Tex.